Howard Berger Thinks Toskala Is Playing "Ok"

by Chemmy on Dec 5, 2008 4:31 PM EST

From Howard Berger:

Toskala doesn’t bring the complete package. He’s been just a step above mediocre during the first third of this season, and is providing no indication that he’ll be — as widely expected — the most valuable performer on the hockey club.

A step above mediocre? This is going to take some work, click through the jump for some stats.

I took all of the data on goaltenders from TSN and made a spreadsheet containing 67 goalies. I kept only goaltenders who have played more than 500 minutes so far this season, which left me with 45. Vesa Toskala is 3rd in time played with 1,350 minutes, behind only Lundqvist and Kiprusoff.

What does mediocre mean? To me, mediocre would be slightly below average. Toskala is a #1 starter, so "average" should be whoever's #15 out of 30 amongst starting goaltenders. It's hard to rank goaltenders qualitatively, but let's use save percentage, since GAA is mostly meaningless. (A goalie who has a .900 SV% has a GAA of 1 if he sees 10 shots a game, or a GAA of 5.00 if he sees fifty. Who's the better goaltender? Probably the one facing more rubber.)

If we sort by save percentage, Vesa Toskala comes in 41st out of 45 goaltenders in this comparison. I'd like to plot save percentages on a histogram to point out how bad Toskala is. A histogram basically tells us how many goaltenders have a save percentage in a certain range.

Toskala would be in the 0.88 bin. This histogram shows us that the gross majority of NHL starting goaltenders (and 16 backups) have save percentages ranging from 0.92 to 0.90. That's the mediocre range. A save percentage of around .910 is average, .920 is a little better than average, and .900 is a little behind the curve.

Saying Toskala has been "slighty above mediocre" is like saying that Howard Berger is a "slightly above mediocre" pundit; completely untrue and not because they're both great at their jobs.

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

You just using stats to ruin the enjoyment of the game. If Howard Berger can watch the games and his gut tells him that VeTo is better than mediocre doesn’t that make him right?

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Dec 5, 2008 4:42 PM EST reply actions

Get back in your mother’s basement, blogger.

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Dec 5, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

I’m surprised he even watches Leafs games anymore. The Dallas Cowboys are still playing important games.

by bkblades on Dec 5, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

it's all a bout how you feel...

and i feel like vesa’s played like crap.

"You do dat, you go to da box, you know, uh, two minutes by yourself, and you feel shame, you know, and then you get free."
The Left Coast Lock

by blurr1974 on Dec 5, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

Berger

The guy is a moron. He he is a frustrated leaf fan who tries to be negative to keep up with the competition. The best article he wrote all year was about driving to Cliffy’s house in Phoenix or the one where he missed the Burke press conference, only the biggest day in this leafs season….

http://www.torontosportsmedia.com

by torontosportsmedia.com on Dec 5, 2008 5:04 PM EST reply actions

You should drop by and comment more.

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Dec 5, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

Berger

This was actually a pretty good article by Berger, apart from the paragraphs regarding Toskala.

by Darryl Sittler's 10 Pt Night on Dec 5, 2008 6:55 PM EST up reply actions

As a stats TA, you would get -1 for the gridlines and another -1 for having the save % in on the X axis in a reverse order. You do well with the other stuff though. Needless to say I hope you rounded properly.

I’d give this probably a B+ or maybe an A-.

For comparison’s sake, I’d give Toskala a D+. Berger would get an “incomplete” since I refuse to grade him for any sort of journalism.

by lordosis on Dec 5, 2008 5:36 PM EST reply actions

I would then give myself a C- for writing “save % in on the X axis”. But then again, I’m the TA, thus you all have to respect me and what I say goes.

by lordosis on Dec 5, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

I too dislike gridlines.

But isn’t that a bar graph, as a proper histogram does not have gaps between the bars? What kind of a TA are you if you missed that?

(Probably the same kind I annoyed when I was in college with comments and observations just like that.) :)

"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams

by Baroque on Dec 6, 2008 8:27 AM EST up reply actions

On the other hand ...

I’m impressed the word “histogram” is used fairly correctly as a kind of graph, instead of defining it as “some kind of sexually-transmitted disease that results in a histamine reaction and severe allergies.” Multiple-choice tests can be fun to write.

"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams

by Baroque on Dec 6, 2008 8:37 AM EST up reply actions

Does anyone have the heart to let Howard know that the Cowboys are run by a meddling owner, may not make the playoffs this year and are in the midst of a 12, soon to be 13 year championship drought?

Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...

by mf37 on Dec 5, 2008 7:04 PM EST reply actions

I think

his mustache is eating his brain. It’s the only explanation.

by LeafFanInVan on Dec 5, 2008 9:03 PM EST reply actions

I hate to...

be a Math Teacher about this, but…

Histograms don’t have space between the bars in the graph.

What you posted was a bar chart.

Aside from that… valid point… and I’ve been making the same point all year. It gets even more interesting if you compare his stats by doing a scatter plot of shots faced per game vs. save percentage. He comes out sub par on that measure too… though not as badly.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Dec 5, 2008 10:30 PM EST reply actions