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How Do The Maple Leafs Allocate The Salary Cap?

Luke Schenn and Matt Stajan wonder if they can leave Vesa Toskala in NYC.

More photos » Frank Franklin II - AP

Luke Schenn and Matt Stajan wonder if they can leave Vesa Toskala in NYC.

Yesterday On October 8th (I wrote this post originally on the 9th) James had a piece looking at where the money was spent by the top five teams last year. Robot Godzilla previously took a look at how the Leafs' spending on defencemen, forwards, and goalies compared to the rest of the league. Considering that Jeff Finger is making $3.5M to sit in the press box it's no surprise to find out that the Leafs are spending the most on defence. Luckily, they are currently also getting the least in return. Wait...

Anyway, here's Mirtle's intro (ps. He went to Barcelona on vacation. Must be nice):

This is something I was working on before vacation, a mini-study of how five of the NHL's best teams are allocating their cap space this year. The five I went with are all right up against the cap, and all experienced a ton of success last year: The Sharks, Red Wings, Bruins, Capitals and Penguins.

After the jump I'll look at how the Maple Leafs stack up to last year's top five teams and where they might improve their monetary allocation.

Star-divide

One note is that I used John Mitchell as the 12th forward in the 'bottom 11' players category because the Leafs are going to carry a 23 man roster for the foreseeable future. This is a result of the lack of waiver eligible forwards in the lower ranks other than Jay Rosehill who isn't included in these figures. First up, is the visual representation of the money split among the top 11 and bottom 11 players for last year's top five teams:

Salary_structure_medium

Here is the same graph for the Maple Leafs' 23 man roster:

Salary_breakdown_medium 

For the purposes of this exercise here is how I categorised players:

You'll notice that Mike Van Ryn isn't included in the calculations and that's because he might as well not exist.

Mirtle was never taught to put a legend with a graph so the differences aren't as visible as they should be. In order to salvage this entire exercise check out the first table below:

  Maple Leafs % of Cap Top Five Avg % of Cap
Starting 6  $23,900,000   38.92%   $33,249,434   58.50% 
Top Six Forwards  $19,155,000   31.19%   $26,402,768   46.50% 
Top four D  $15,525,000   25.28%   $15,692,500   27.60% 
Starting G  $4,000,000   6.51%   $4,258,333   7.50% 
Bottom 11/12  $18,099,999   29.47%   $10,153,804   17.90% 
Top F Line  $11,150,000   18.16%   $18,380,268   32.40% 
Top D Pair  $8,750,000   14.25%   $10,610,833   18.70% 

 

The Leafs are on par with the top five in terms of spending for their top four defencemen and their starting goalies. It's no surprise, given the lack of elite forwards (aside from Kessel we hope) that the Leafs have spent $7M less than the top five teams from last year. The real shame is that, as a result of some poor decisions, the extra spending hasn't gone to augmenting the top four defence or the starting goaltending but to the 'bottom 11 (or 12)'. One of Burke's big goals will have to be to get some of that money freed up so that it can be invested in the high end players.

From among the forwards Lee Stempniak ($2.5M), Alexei Ponikarovsky ($2.1M), Matt Stajan ($1.75M), Wayne Primeau ($1.4M), Rickard Wallin ($800K), and Jamal Mayers ($1.33M) are unrestricted free agents while Nikolai Kulemin ($1.5M) and John Mitchell ($500K) are unrestricted free agents. That frees up about $11.88M to be re-invested into the forwards. If we follow the breakdown above that would mean re-investing $5.52M into the top six forwards. To get the team's expenditures on their top six forwards up to the same percentage the Maple Leafs would have to invest another $4M on top of that to get close. Now if only there was a player worth that kind of coin... The rest of the bottom six will have a lot of players on the Marlies and possible juniors to pull from to fill the spots. Considering Brian Burke's stated preference with which we are all well, well aware (Top Six v. Bottom Six) and his statements about the Leafs' current make-up ('Top' Nine v. Bottom Three) it will be interesting to see what moves he makes to address those gaps through free agency versus internal promotions. The former would be expensive and cuts into the money available to fill out the top of the roster which is where the top five teams are choosing to spend their money.

The gap in high end players is most visible when you look at the Leafs' starting six compared to the top five average. The starting six (Kessel, Blake, Stajan, Komisarek, Kaberle, Toskala) make $10M less which again shows that he Leafs lack in star power. Balance is all well and good but there is a lot to be said for having a superstar or two in the ranks. If you look a bit closer you see that the majority of the difference comes from the top forward line and Matt Stajan's $1.75M salary. If he remains with the team next year his raise will cut the gap somewhat but the case then won't be how the Leafs have allocated their money in terms of the players' place on the roster but if it is going to the right players.

In terms of the overall splits the picture is similar: 

  Maple Leafs % of Cap Top Five Avg % of Cap
Forwards  $29,013,333   47.24%   $33,220,239   58.50% 
Defence  $24,166,666   39.35%   $18,386,166   32.40% 
Goalies  $6,500,000   10.58%   $4,901,000   8.60% 
Buy-outs  $1,733,333   2.82%   $515,000   0.90% 
Total  $61,413,332       

 

No surprise here as the Maple Leafs again spend more than the average on defence and less on forwards. Among the defence the Leafs have Garnet Exelby ($1.4M) and Mike Van Ryn ($2.9M) as unrestricted free agents and it would beggar belief to see either one return to Toronto. Ian White ($850K) is a restricted free agent who will likely be re-signed to fill in the sixth spot leaving the seventh and call up spots to Phil Oreskovic (who is an RFA), Juraj Mikus, and Carl Gunnarsson.

The other figure where the Leafs far outspend the top five is in buy-outs. Every dollar spent on a buy-out is dead space that hinders a team's ability to sign their own RFAs and UFAs and pursue others. As players like Viktor Stalberg, Christian Hanson, Luke Schenn, and Tyler Bozak come up to be re-signed the Darcy Tucker buy-out will be a niggling problem but it's vital not to add to it by going through some of the proposed buy-outs I've seen suggested.

I'm going to try to expand this analysis a bit further this week but let's hear what everyone thinks about the numbers so far.

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Comments

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We don’t spend enough on our top six and spend too much on our bottom six.

That basically agrees with what we all know: the Leafs have too many mediocre players and not enough high end talent.

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Oct 13, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

exactly. Although I was surprised to see our spending on defense is on par with the top teams. I thought we paid more.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Our 5-6 d pairing is where we spend way more than top teams.

Pension Plan Puppets*
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by Chemmy on Oct 13, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It would be nice to see the individual numbers of the other five teams considered because I am sure there is a fair bit of variation among them. For example, Detroit pays very little to their goalies but probably more to their defense.

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by HockeyAnalysis on Oct 13, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m working on another post that’ll go a bit deeper into that.
The Red Wings are bringing the goaltending average down with Osgood.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Oct 13, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but

none of them really pay more than $5.5 mill for their starting goalies, do they?
I mean, none of the highest paid goalies are on the top 5 teams…

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If anyone sees this, is there anyone who has any insightful questions for the Leafs right now?

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Oct 13, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

it’d be interesting to see how the signings break down by GM…

"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...

by blurr1974 on Oct 13, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I meant something to ask the Leafs players.

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Oct 13, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

reply fail..

sorry…

Still, be intresting to see which guy Burke signed vs. Fletcher vs. JFJ. How did each GM allocate the money? True enough, Fletcher was an interim guy, so it may not be fair, but I’m curious to see how much of this money has been spent by our current GM is all.

"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...

by blurr1974 on Oct 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you aware that hockey is a goal scoring competition?

Wings fan by birth. Leafs fan by truculent osmosis.

by SkinnyFish on Oct 13, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really more of a question for damien.

Resident Capologist

by clrkaitken on Oct 13, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

who the fuck is tim brent?

Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006

by JaredFromLondon on Oct 13, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two-Parter

Are you guys aware that a hockey game consists of three periods?

If yes, why the fuck aren’t you playing like it?

Resident Capologist

by clrkaitken on Oct 13, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

a) I wrote this on Oct. 8, not yesterday.
b) I went to Portugal mostly, with a little Barcelona at the end
c) Portugal is a cheap country to visit
d) good post

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Oct 13, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

PPP got told.

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Oct 13, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, there was that little bit of praise at the end to soften the blow…

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

a) I wrote this on Oct. 8, not yesterday too. Whoops.
b) Should have done it the other way around
c) Portugal is a cheap country to visit…until they rob you.
d) good post

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Oct 13, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

a) lazy
b) twss
c) they’ll fall down after grabbing your wallet and clutch their knee
d) Alyn McCauley ;)

Wings fan by birth. Leafs fan by truculent osmosis.

by SkinnyFish on Oct 13, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m 6’5" – they didn’t rob me. They mostly just tried (unsuccessfully) to sell me hashish.

Wanted to see Lagos in Portugal. Beautiful beaches.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Oct 13, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

6'5"?

Shit, someone get Burke on the phone – James is the next power forward for the Leafs!

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Way too lean for that. Not built for hockey, really.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Oct 13, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I went during Euro and some guy got murdered 3 days before for fighting back so I didn’t do anything.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Oct 13, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll second that buyouts are almost never a good idea.

I would also look at the numbers in this post as a positive – at least the Leafs aren’t getting the results they’re getting up front while paying legitimate first line salaries (aside from Blake). Money from Stempniak, Mayers and Primeau (and Exelby and Van Ryn) can be legitimately invested in front line talent without worrying about beggaring the bottom lines.

Hopefully the D comes around – I have confidence in Beauchemin – but I expressed strong doubts about the Komisarek signing at the time. He’s not as good as Kubina, and not much cheaper.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Oct 13, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

he's

a very different style than Kubina. Kubina was great, but Burke likes muscle and toughness on the back end, which Kubina only brings in spurts – if he could play mean consistently, he’d be a legit #1 D and have it all. I think it was more of a case of seeing a need and deciding to sacrifice some talent for grit.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't watched all the games

But mostly what Komisarek seems to be good at is taking poorly timed penalties and getting caught out of position. Big hits are nice but if he can’t play well at either end it hurts the team.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Oct 13, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i’m not a Komi fan, but lots of his calls were pretty borderline. not positional issues but ill timed.

he takes an elbow to the head while on the ice. penalty for retaliation.

gomez runs our goalie, komi pulls him out of the net and gives him a few good shoves. penalty for roughing.

i could go on, but you get the point. he’s not getting any leeway from the refs. he needs to dial it down a hair.

"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...

by blurr1974 on Oct 13, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Komisarek finishes his check last night, gets sucker punched in the face: matching penalties.

Pension Plan Puppets*
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by Chemmy on Oct 13, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He’s also picked up 6 PIM from people’s faces getting in the way of his stick.

Resident Capologist

by clrkaitken on Oct 13, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

We have top 6 forwards? When the hell did that happen?

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Oct 13, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

when we traded our future for phil kessel

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on Oct 13, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In the future once Kessel comes back.

Wings fan by birth. Leafs fan by truculent osmosis.

by SkinnyFish on Oct 13, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There we go.. I knew we had a few top 6 guys, but I didn’t think we actually had 6 of them.

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Oct 13, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we have 6 guys

who are playing more minutes than 6 other guys.

"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...

by blurr1974 on Oct 13, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

are Mitchell and Mayers two of those guys???

If so, we’re boned

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Oct 13, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent work

boys.

Sports And The City

A Toronto sports blog, where unabashed homerism is alive and well...

PLAYOFFS!!!!1

by eyebleaf on Oct 13, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Do we need

to spend more on a #1 goalie?

Sports And The City

A Toronto sports blog, where unabashed homerism is alive and well...

PLAYOFFS!!!!1

by eyebleaf on Oct 13, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking

about this… IF Gustavsson doesn’t work out, and we want to go get a #1 goalie this summer… who’s available?
The only guy I think think of is Turco…

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

did Nabokov re-up in SJ yet?

"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...

by blurr1974 on Oct 13, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no

Do. Not. Want.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RFAs

Rask
Lehtonen
Pavelec
Price

UFAs
Crap

There’s really nothing of merit this summer on that front.

"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...

by blurr1974 on Oct 13, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We couldn’t do much with an RFA anyway.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 13, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

UFAs:

Turco
Nabokov (Do Not Want)

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can’t believe you would list Price, but call Turco and Nabokov Crap.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Oct 13, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No?

I like him. I think you would come to love him like you did Belfour.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Oct 13, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

huh?

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Edited

ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooook

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Oct 13, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ahhh

my love for Turco may come from the fact that Canucks fans haaaaaaaaaaate him passionately….

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

suddenly

i’m intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your newsletter

"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...

by blurr1974 on Oct 13, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My newsletter

Why Canucks Fans are the Most Annoying in the NHL

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

this week's headline

Sami Salo injured Again.
HAHAHAHAHAH

Also, I would trade Van Ryn for Salo in a heartbeat.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 13, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

 I guess the bright side is we will have app. 20 million in cap space after this year if we don’t re-sign our UFA’s.

by 6rick6 on Oct 13, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Really nice to see an analysis that is of the whole system

and not just “player X > Player Y”.

Kudos.

I want to trade players between my teams. Spoon can go to the Leafs (truculossity!), and Vesa can go to the Tigers, where conceding 6 points a game puts you at the top of the league, not the bottom.

by Wan Ihite on Oct 13, 2009 4:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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