Editor's Note: Fleet Fox takes an in-depth look at how the Leafs' games have changed after fights and whether the team's hits have affected the momentum of the game.

As I was watching Colton Orr’s grinning face come out of a scrum against the Avalanche, I got thinking about Truculence, and about how much good it has done for us so far this season (no sarcasm). I wondered aloud (atype?) in the GDT why we even signed him, and was surprised at the number of PPPers who vehemently jumped to his defense. We all said some rash things that night, and though I might be crazy for questioning the signing, I wanted to look into it some more; has the added truculence brought anything positive so far?

Now, let’s get one thing clear: this Fanpost is not supposed to be a judgment of the potential of the Leafs’ toughness, or any larger connection between fighting, hitting, and scoring. These statistics are what they are; they're only six games' worth.

 More specifically though, I wanted to see if I could find any statistical evidence that hits and/or fights have lead to any shift in momentum so far this year. Bad penalties seem to be the worst momentum-killer as of yet, but that doesn’t mean that fights or hits haven’t lead to positives, either.

 I have done two main things:

1)    Examine the number of hits per period and compare them to how many goals were scored in each one.

2)    Examine the number of hits, shots, and penalties, directly following every fight the Leafs have been in so far. I’ve also kept track of who scored the next goal.

I’ll sum up the main points here, so you don’t have to go over all the games in detail. 

• Over the course of the last six games, the Leafs have averaged exactly 24 hits per game. For whatever it’s worth (and I know it’s not much), after a rough 6-game start to last season, we had averaged exactly 23 hits. Not a big difference.
  
• It should also be noted that we have been out-hit by the opposition in 4 out of 6 of our games so far this year, and it was exactly the same last season after the same number of skirmishes.
  
• The Leafs have been in 9 fights so far this year. Times that a fight preceded a Toronto goal: 3 out of 9. This also includes one goal that came later in the next period, and was unlikely to have been much affected by the fight. So, the opposition has scored next 6 out of 9 times.
  
• Times that Toronto out-shot their opponent following a fight: 1 out of 9.
  
• Times that shots were equal (or that there were no shots): 4. I do not include the goal-scoring shot in this calculation.
  
• Times that Toronto has out-hit their opponents following a fight: 2. Times that the hitting has been even: 3.
  
• The Leafs have only out-hit and out-shot one team for one period: the third period of the Caps game when we were already down 6 – 1. There weren’t even any fights in this game that I could point at to explain the momentum shift. Wilson must have just given them hell.
  
• The Leafs were out-hit or evenly matched in hits for every other period where they scored as many or more goals as the opposition. So far, less hits = more goals.
  
• In both games that he has been in the lineup, Jeff Finger has lead our team in hits.
  
• Mike Komisarek has consistently been among the top hitters on the ice.
  
• Nikolai Kulemin has twice led our team in hits.
  
• Colton Orr has exactly lived up to his billing. No more, no less. Despite the fact that he is often on the ice less than five minutes a game, he still manages land a couple hits, and, often enough, a fight in. He can't skate, shoot, or pass, but he has good energy, and I'm hoping it will rub off on a few players. 

Now here are the stats that I used to glean this info from our last six games:

Avalanche vs. Leafs

Game Hits: 26 – 21 for Colorado

Leaders in hits for Toronto: Komisarek with 6. Grabovski, Beachemin, Exelby, and Orr all have 2.

First period: 15 – 5 Colorado

Score: 1 – 1.

Second period: 11 – 6 Toronto

Score: 4 – 1 Colorado

Third period: 5 – 5.

Score does not change.

Fights and their effects:

First period:

-       6:02: Orr vs. Koci

-      Colorado gives the next 3 hits over about 3 minutes, Leaf give 0

-      The following goal by Colorado on the PP

-      From the time of the fight until the time of the goal, shots are 2 – 0 Colorado

Second period:

-       7:23: Exelby vs. Hendricks

-      Toronto gives the next 2 hits until the time of the goal

-      The following goal by Colorado at even strength.

-      From the time of the fight until the time of the goal, shots are 1 – 1

Roundup:

The Leafs were out-hit at the end of the game, and the two fights brought about no tangible improvement. In fact, the only period in which the Leafs out-hit the Avalanche was their worst period on the scoreboard, as they gave up two goals, and did not tally any of their own.

Leafs vs. Rangers

Game Hits: 43 – 27 Toronto 

Leaders in hits for Toronto: Finger with 7. Komisarek had 4.

First period: 14 - 10 Toronto

Score: 2 – 1 Rangers

Second period: 16 – 6 Toronto

Score: 3 – 2 Rangers

Third period: 17 - 7 Toronto

Score 7 – 2 Rangers

Fights and their effects:

First period:

-       10:18: Orr vs. Brashear

-      After the fight, hits are 5 apiece until next goal

-      Ponikarovsky scores 8 minutes later

-      Shots are 3 – 3 until the goal.

*       Note: There were also incidental roughing minors called on Komisarek and Dubinsky just over 2 minutes before the goal.

Roundup:

The fight and scrum between Komisarek and Dubinsky may well have changed the tone of the game enough to contribute to the goal in the first. Sadly, all the hits thrown by the Leafs seem to have been for naught, since we out-hit the Rangers in both our best and worst periods (2nd, and 3rd respectively). 

Penguins vs. Leafs

Game Hits: 32 – 25 Toronto

Leaders in hits for Toronto: Nikolai Kulemin with 6, Luke Schenn, Mike Komisarek, and Lee Stempniak tied for 2nd with 4 each.

First period: 14 – 11 Toronto

Score: 2 – 0 Pittsburgh.

Second period: 13 – 9 Toronto

Score: 4 – 1 Pittsburgh

Third period: 7 – 7

Score: 5 – 2 Pittsburgh.

Fights and their effects:

First period:

-       2:19: Orr vs. Godard

-      Pittsburgh has 4 hits before the next goal, the Leafs had none

-      Cooke scores next goal for Pittsburgh exactly 1 minute later

-      Pittsburgh has 1 shot on goal before scoring.

-       10:25: Mayers vs. Adams

-      Immediately upon resuming play after last goal by Pittsburgh

-      Hits until the end of the period are 6 – 2 Toronto

-      Toronto scores next, but not until 2:01 of second period

-      Shots are 3 – 1 Pittsburgh until end of period

Third period:

-       2:10: Rosehill vs. Rupp

-      Immediately upon resuming play after last goal by Pittsburgh

-      After fight, until end of game, hits are 7 – 6 Pens

-      No other scoring follows

-      Shots after fight until end of game are 10 – 6 Pittsburgh.

Roundup:

The Orr & Godard fight didn’t do the Leafs any favors as far as momentum, and appears to have had a negative impact. The Mayers fight seems not to have any effect, given that the next goal wasn’t for quite some time afterwards, although I guess it didn’t hurt. The last fight bookends Pittsburgh’s scoring, but that doesn’t say much, since the Leafs were out-hit and out-shot afterwards. Interesting that the Leafs best period was when the hits were even.

Sens vs. Leafs 

Game hits: 35 – 27 Ottawa

Toronto hit leaders: Nikolai Kulemin with 4, Luke Schenn, Tomas Kaberle, and Colton Orr each with 3.

First period: 12 – 11 Toronto

Score 0 – 0

Second period: 10 – 8 Ottawa

Score 2 – 0

Third period: 12 – 7 Ottawa

Score: 2 -1 Ottawa

Fights and their effects:

NONE.

Roundup:

Despite being out-hit, Toronto only lost by one goal or, alternatively, won by 1 goal, if you’re still angry with the refs. This is their narrowest margin of defeat, and it is noteworthy that the Leafs’ only goal came from a period in which they were out-hit. No fighting to change the momentum.

Leafs vs. Capitals

Game Hits: 24 – 22 Washington

Toronto hit leaders: Jeff Finger with 5, Komisarek with 4.

First period: 12 hits apiece

Score: 3 – 0 Washington

Second period: 7 – 4

Score 6 – 1 Washington

Third period: 8 – 5 Toronto

Score: 6 – 4 Washington

Fights and their effects:

NONE.

Roundup:

The Leafs roughly matched the Capitals’ hit count, but it is noteworthy that the third period was the only time this year that the Leafs have both out-hit and out-scored an opponent. You read that correctly: only one period. There were not fights in this game to change the momentum.

Canadiens vs. Leafs

Game hits: 37 – 22 for Montréal

Toronto hit leaders: Luke Schenn with 5, while White, Komisarek, and Beachemin all had 3.

First period: 17 – 9 Montréal

Score: 1 – 1

Second period: 11 – 7 Montréal

Score: 2 – 2

Third period: 9 – 7 Montréal

Score: 3 -3

Overtime: No hits in OT

Score 4 – 3 Montréal

Fights and their effects:

First period:

-       1:51: Orr vs. Laraque

-      Sets the tone for a tough game, but there is another fight before there is a single goal

-      Between this fight and the next, the hits are 7 – 4 Montréal

-      The shots are 10 – 4 for Toronto

-       10:55: Rosehill vs. Moen

-      Komisarek gets a double-minor for high sticking at 11:01, and Montréal scores 4 seconds into the power play.

-      There are no shots or hits between the fight and the goal.

-      Damn.

Third period:

-       8:56: Komisarek vs. Moen

-      Toronto is on the PP because Moen took an additional minor for goaltender interference and Matt Stajan scores at 9:09.

-      There are no other hits or shots between the fight and the goal.

Roundup:

After the first fight, the Leafs had good energy, but they can’t capitalize on this momentum. The Komi penalty after the second fight takes away anything we had going, so it’s tough to see what effect this would have had otherwise. The third fight, however, is Komisarek jumping to the aid of Toskala, after being run by Moen, and I like to see this. Komi didn’t have to take an additional penalty, and Stajan scored the equalizer on the PP – good work. Hampster line aside, Montréal looks tough.