Phil Kessel: Examining 'The Marc Savard Effect'
by Archimedies on Oct 19, 2009 7:47 PM EDT
96 comments
Editor's Note: Archidemies is sick and tired of hearing about "The Marc Savard Effect". He goes through all 42 goals and provides the play-by-play. Join him in his adventure and see what all of the fuss is about. Someday maybe we'll even get to see him in the blue and white.
Chemmy Note: Also check out Gus Katsaros' analysis of the Savard-Kessel pairing at Maple Leafs Hot Stove.
If you're anything at all like me, one of the first arguments you heard against the Toronto Maple Leafs signing Phil Kessel was that he attributed a large percentage of his goals to the superior playmaking exploits of Marc Savard. Apparently we Leaf fans were blind to the fact that Savard had been spoonfeeding the 21-year old with tap-ins and unmissable cross-ice one-timers. I generally took these people at their word, because I couldn't possibly be bothered to watch someone other than the Maple Leafs play hockey.
Curious to see this wizard Savard in action, I quickly sought out any media I could find to get a hold of this sublime passing ability.
Luckily, I stumbled across this video, which contains all 42 goals Phil Kessel scored for the Boston Bruins in 2008-2009
For the sake of fun, lets go through this goal-by-goal.
Goal #1- Don't blink, you'll miss it. Kessel walks out from the sideboards and unleashes hell at the top of the slot, straight to the top corner.
Goal #2- Very nice cross-ice pass by Patrice Bergeron finds Kessel near the right circle and his ridiculous wrist shot easily finds the net.
Goal #3- Give this one to Savard, that's a heck of a play for an easy 1-timer
Goal #4- On the PP, Kessel finds the puck in traffic and cashes it in.
Goal #5- On the PP, Kessel walks in the from the point and mercilessly buries a wrister. The assist is meaningless.
Goal #6- On the PP, on at 3-on-2, Kessel keeps, walks into the slot and finishes with an unstoppable wrister.
Goal #7- *MUST SEE* On the rush, puts a ridiculous move on a defender and buries a wrist shot.
Goal #8- On the rush, beats Vesa Toskala 5-hole on a ridiculously soft goal.
Goal #9- Standing in the crease, Kessel bangs home a rebound from a Milan Lucic shot. (Savard credited with 2nd assist)
Goal #10- On a breakaway (feed courtesy Marc Savard) Phil Kessel is unstoppable. The goaltender falls over.
Goal #11- Savard Slapper stopped, Lucic Rebound stopped, Kessel scoops up a rebound and finishes.
Goal #12- Milan Lucic makes a nice pass to a streaking Kessel in the slot, yada-yada-wrister. (Made the game 7-2, fyi)
Goal #13- From just inside the point, Kessel unleashes a RIDICULOUS wrist shot. Assist to Shane Hnidy!
Goal #14- Nice pass from Savard (Dammit) leaves Kessel a pretty easy finish.
Goal #15- Empty net goal. Unselfish good-guy assist to Savard.
Goal #16- On the PP, Kessel walks in from the point and decides to roof an unstoppable wrist shot upstairs.
Goal #17- Kessel scores unassisted on a 2-on-1.
Goal #18- On the PP, Kessel from Hunwick and Wideman.
Goal #19- On the PP, Kessel has his one-timer attempt (from David Krejci) blocked, grabs the rebound and scores.
Goal #20- A streaking Kessel flies down the wing and buries it past a helpless Vesa Toskala. Savard gets the assist, but you'd have to be blind to not give the puck to Kessel there.
Goal #21- Savard throws the puck to Kessel who is surrounded by FOUR players wearing Toronto Maple Leaf uniforms. One of the players accidentally blocks Kessel's first shot. Luckily, Kessel calmly grabs the rebound and laughs at a joke he'd heard earlier that morning before beating Toskala.
Goal #22- On the rush, a wide-open Kessel unleashes an unstoppable wrister... yada-yada...
Goal #23- Savard makes a nice play and Kessel is treated to a tap-in.
Goal #24- I officially begin to worry I started doing this, as Savard fakes a slapshot then deftly finds Kessel in the slot for an awesome one-timer. Gulp.
Goal #25- Kessel collects a pass in traffic from Savard and somehow gets an excellent release on it to find the top shelf. Savard has Kessel to thank for finishing just as much as Kessel must thank Savard for the pass.
Goal #26- God-damnit what a pass by Marc Savard. Nice finish by Kessel too to go 5-hole while spinning out of control.
Goal #27- Drop pass to Savard who finds Kessel down the wing with a nice wrist shot finish. That's 5 straight Savard assists.
Goal #28- On the rush, Kessel going so fast it looks like he can lift off the ground and fly unleashes hell in the form of a wrist shot. Good to see.
Goal #29- Phil is faster than some nameless Sens defenceman and gets an ENG.
Goal #30- Sneaking in out of nowhere Phil Kessel takes a feed from Andrew Ference at the top of the circle. The rest writes itself.
Goal #31- Incredible pass by Blake Wheeler. Wow.
Goal #32- Working hard at the side of the net, Kessel gets a couple of whacks down low and puts it in. Assist to Savard.
Goal #33- On the rush. Wristshot. Goal. Not a recording.
Goal #34- Kessel at the side of the net from Wheeler.
Goal #35- Kessel picks up a loose puck in the slot. Believe it or not, he scores with a sick wrist shot.
Goal #36- To complete the hat-trick, and his last goal of the regular season Phil scores a cross-ice 1-timer from Savard. For the first time all year, Phil scores with a slap shot. The goalie appears to get shot with a bullet seconds before the goal goes in.
PLAYOFFS VS MONTREAL
Goal #37- Play appears dead, Kessel plays to the whistle and tucks the loose puck into the net.
Goal #38- Empty Net goal, set up by Lucic
Goal #39 - Mike Komisarek gives the puck away, Kessel beats Carey Price with a wrister from the high slot.
Goal #40 - Flying down the wing, Kessel picks up an outlet pass off the boards and embarasses Carey Price
2ND ROUND VS CAROLINA
Goal #41 - Savard finds Kessel at the side of the net. Appears to kind of be an accident as both players sorta shrug afterwards.
Goal #42 - On the rush, Savard finds Kessel as the trailer in the slot and Phil does what he does.
After briefly skimming through my writing, it appears that about 10 of the goals had a lot to do with Marc Savard. On the same token about 28 of them contained the phrase 'unstoppable wrist shot' or 'incredible release' or described his ridiculous speed and incredible shot.
30 goals seems like a reasonable expectation, doesn't it?
Watch the video, come to your own conclusions, tell me what I'm missing.
PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.
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The fact that you went through the video and did a basic play by play should ease people on the yet to begin Kessel experiment.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
by bkblades on Oct 19, 2009 8:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nice stuff
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by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Oct 19, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I can’t wait to step outside and then come back inside and read this. I’m gonna go do that now.
by general borschevsky on Oct 19, 2009 8:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wasn’t one of those people wringing their hands about the Kessel deal, but this is excellent work, and proof positive that we don’t have to worry that all of a sudden he’s not going to be able to score at all. He’s got some mad skills, and I’ve no doubt he’ll show ’em off while wearing a Leaf jersey.
My body is like a chocolate rum souffle - if I'm not warmed up properly I won't rise.
by Mabel on Oct 19, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I still worry about his two major shoulder surgeries, but yes you’re right, it’s not like Kessel didn’t know how to score last season.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
by bkblades on Oct 19, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, his shoulders could be an issue, but as this post was about the ‘Marc Savard Effect’, I don’t see why we’d need/want to rehash that debate (all sides have made their points clear ad nauseum). The question here is: can he score without Savard? And to that, the answer is yes.
My body is like a chocolate rum souffle - if I'm not warmed up properly I won't rise.
by Mabel on Oct 19, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“amazing release”
what an apt phrase
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 19, 2009 8:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The best way to look at it is that savard got so many assists last year because of the ‘Phil Kessel Effect’
by Jamash on Oct 19, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Indeed. It’s not like anybody says Ovechkin gets all his goals because of Backstrom.
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Oct 19, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People say all kinds of stupid things about Ovechkin, believe me.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 19, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome job.
Kessel looks like the real deal. Knows how to put the puck in the net. I haven’t been too excited about the deal yet but this looks promising.
by general borschevsky on Oct 19, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I love Leaf fans.
If we can get to the truth, we do.
If we don’t have enough info to judge the truth, we wait.
In all circumstances, we wish and hope the best for our team, while never losing sight of the fact that wishes and hopes are just that.
Excellent work, Archimedes.
"We've had an ongoing problem with Grabovski this year." Bob Gainey, 4/04/09
by kidkawartha on Oct 19, 2009 9:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
LOL
I love Leaf fans.
If we can get to the truth, we try to convince our self of something much better or worse.
If we don’t have enough info to judge the truth, we leap to conclusions.
In all circumstances, we wish and hope the best for our team, while frequently half the team off as completely useless, while exulting our prospects.
Excellent work, Archimedes, much good may it do us.
and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)
by Wan Ihite on Oct 20, 2009 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
…. while frequently WRITING half the team off as completely useless….
and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)
by Wan Ihite on Oct 20, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice work, Archimedies.
That should shut up the “Kessel Can’t Score Without Savard” crowd. :D
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by Kavel Pubina on Oct 19, 2009 10:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Optimism at work
Hope springs eternal.
and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)
by Wan Ihite on Oct 20, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just wondering
I was just wondering where this video was when Jason Blake scored 42 before being traded to the Leafs. Or what Beauchemin’s tape looked like to get him invited to the team Canada camp. Because they are completely different players wearing the white and blue. Add the pressure of being worth two first round picks and I call a big Kessel let-down. Not only that, but you mention a couple of goals assisted or contributed by Milan Lucic or David Krecji – the leafs don’t have any players of their calibre either.
And even if you’re right, is a 30 goal scorer worth 2 first round picks? Just a thought.
by broadway1_1 on Oct 19, 2009 10:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also, with the B’s offense, Kessel’s not facing the best opposition every shift, whereas on the Leafs you can sure bet he will be. That’s good for a few goals at least, methinks.
by Vinn on Oct 19, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both valid points
and while Krecji definately had a very productive year in Boston, the current problem we’re experiencing in Toronto in regards to goalscoring is that no one is able to step up and take THE shot. We’ve got a bunch of guys capable and more than willing to do the hard work to create scoring chances, there’s just nobody to kick the puck to that lurks in the slot with the release to get it done.
I have faith that a big body like Poni and a guy like Nik Hagman would have no trouble creating space and opportunities with Kessel. If not them, then a list of players like Kulemin, Tlusty, Stalberg, Bozak, Kadri, Stajan, or any other forward you can name will get an opportunity.
Aside from a few of the Savard assists, the majority of the goals in that collection occur because Kessel has enough room to get his incredibly accurate and quick shot off. I think the Leafs have enough talent to create similar opportunities for him to showcase the talent.
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by Archimedies on Oct 19, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Leafs are also having no trouble getting the puck to players in the circles or slot for a wrister, they have problems with those players being able to put that puck in the net
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 19, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, Kaberle + Kessel on the PP will be a wonder
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by JaredFromLondon on Oct 19, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
About 5 of those goals were him walking in untouched from the point on the PP and releasing a laser before the D got a chance to realize who had the puck.
The Handsome Man's Guide To Life- Tuxedos, Truculence and Twitter
Guess what? I don't read your blog. Ever.
by Archimedies on Oct 19, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yah, he gets speed through the neutral zone and a bit of room and it looks all but over
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by JaredFromLondon on Oct 19, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
I suppose the best way to look at it is to look at all the chances Lee Stempniak has this year without scoring.
if that’s Phil Kessel instead of Lee Stempniak…
Well…
I’m pretty sure we’d’ve won a game or two.
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Guess what? I don't read your blog. Ever.
by Archimedies on Oct 19, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im pretty sure every 5 on 3 this year would have resulted in a goal
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 19, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Though to be completely fair, if Kessel is known to be the only on on the team who can shoot it, then the other guy’s D can key in on him, and leave the others to shoot useless floaters…
That said, we won’t be the only new offensive talent that isn’t currently on ice for the leafs, and if the opposition D key on him too much, then maybe even people like Blake would be left enough space to get in and take their own shots, no longer from the periphery.
Team chemistry is a weird, non-linear, and hard to predict thing.
and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)
by Wan Ihite on Oct 20, 2009 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the flip side to that is,
that there are still finishers on this team (how many 20-goal scorers?) that are combination no-confidence and snake-bit right now, that can’t help but benefit from the extra space they will be afforded while teams are focusing on Kessel.
Success breeds success.
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by Sergei Puckizin on Oct 20, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to Behind the Net, Phi Kessel’s Quality of Competition was 0.014, tied with David Krecji. Only forwards who faced tougher competition were Patrice Bergeron and Blake Wheeler. And they were on Boston’s “shutdown” line, for the most part. So, Kessel pretty much faced the best opposition last season.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
by bkblades on Oct 19, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s a great point.
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Oct 20, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, think about it – A line with Boston’s number one sniper and their number one play-making center sounds like their first line, right? So they’re going to draw the toughest D-pairings and the shutdown guys. The Ryder/Krejci/Wheeler was the second line, benefiting from the potency of the first line.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 20, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Recchi/Bergeron/Kobasew benefited from the potency of the 3rd line.
And Shawn Thornton had a career year.
ah, memories…
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Oct 21, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Krejci rarely played with Kessel, though. Sturm/Ryder-Krejci-Wheeler was a common line for Krejci
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Oct 20, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Add the pressure of being worth two first round picks and I call a big Kessel let-down.
You are aware he HASN’T PLAYED A GAME YET, right? True, Kessel may not work out, but why don’t we actually let him play at least a season or so before we declare him a bust who succumbed to the pressure. Jason Blake was in his 30s and was diagnosed with cancer when he first joined the Leafs, so he’s not exactly a perfect analogy to Kessel.
And as for Beauchemin, well, I’m going to do my broken record routine here, but he’s played fewer than 10 regular season games, so let’s just calm down a smidge, if we could, before claiming he’s the suck too.
My body is like a chocolate rum souffle - if I'm not warmed up properly I won't rise.
by Mabel on Oct 19, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the blog links they posted today was the guy making the point that ALL of the teams who changed more than 2 of their top 6 Dmen are sucking it up right now – it takes a long time for defensive partners to develop trust in each other and learn each other. Given the raw number of new top Dmen we have, it’s not at all surprising we’re sucking this much right now. Nobody has any idea what anyone else will do at any given time, so they’re all skating around looking over their shoulders and getting out of sync.
and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)
by Wan Ihite on Oct 20, 2009 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree
Chemistry doesn’t come overnight and really, I think it was a mistake to not play the full complement of D more often in the pre-season to try to speed the process up.
And again, it doesn’t help things along when the goalies won’t make a save.
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by PPP on Oct 20, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the defense is slowly getting better too. the main issue isnt chemistry either, it is confidence, in your team, your goalie and yourself,. You can have all the chemistry and effort in the world, but if you hesitate for a second, over think a situation too long, bam, that forward is by you, bam that pass is intercepted
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by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
It’s a mix of all these things. Chemistry has to be possible (some people will never work together), it has to build (learn what your partner can and will do, how to compensate for what they don’t), and it has to have an environment that nurtures it (i.e., it gets undermined when every nascent mistake leads to a goal against due to a lousy goalie, and so you end up second guessing and hesitating more than ever, instead of developing together).
and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)
by Wan Ihite on Oct 20, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
These guys above me have said most of what needs to be said. All I’d add is that Kessel is, and will always be, a far superior player to Jason Blake, so I don’t feel that’s a reasonable basis of comparison. Especially when Kessel got 36 goals at age 21, while Blake got 40 at age 33.
by FiftyMissionCap on Oct 20, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Using the spreadsheet Daoust created back in June, I’ve taken a look at how many first rounders from 1994 – 2006 (Kessel’s draft year) have managed to score 30 goals in a season.
1994 – 26 1st round picks
Jeff O’Neill (3 times), Ryan Smyth (4), Jeff Friesen (1)
1995 – 26 1st round picks
Daymond Langkow (2), Shane Doan (2), Radek Dvorak (1), Jarome Iginla (8), Petr Sykora (2)
1996 – 26 1st round picks
Daniel Briere (2)
1997 – 26 1st round picks
Joe Thornton (2), Patrick Marleau (2), Olli Jokinen (4), Marian Hossa (7), Brenden Morrow (1)
1998 – 27 1st round picks
Vincent Lecavalier (5), Simon Gagne (2), Scott Gomez (1)
1999 – 28 1st round picks
Daniel Sedin (2), Martin Havlat (2)
2000 – 30 1st round picks
Dany Heatley (5), Marian Gaborik (5), Scott Hartnell (1), Alexander Frolov (2), Brad Boyes (2), Justin Williams (2)
2001 – 30 1st round picks
Ilya Kovalchuk (6), Jason Spezza (4)
2002 – 30 1st round picks
Rick Nash (4), Alexander Semin (2)
2003 – 30 1st round picks
Eric Staal (4), Nathan Horton (1), Thomas Vanek (3), Jeff Carter (1), Dustin Brown (1), Zach Parise (3), Mike Richards (1), Corey Perry (1)
2004 – 30 1st round picks
Alexander Ovechkin (4), Evgeni Malkin (3), Mike Green (1)
2005 – 30 1st round picks
Sidney Crosby (3), Bobby Ryan (1), Devon Setoguchi (1), Anze Kopitar (1)
2006 – 30 1st round picks
Jonathan Toews (1), Phil Kessel (1), Bryan Little (1)
To date, a grand total of 47 1st round picks drafted between 1994 and 2006 (out of a total of 359 1st round picks over that time span) have managed to score a minimum of 30 goals in at least one NHL season. That works out to a 13.1% success rate, or roughly 1 in 7.
Of course, these numbers are skewed by factors such as:
- goalies and defenceman drafted in the 1st round (only Mike Green makes the list)
- some incredibly weak drafts (1996, quite possibly 2001). However, this is offset by 2003, which already has 8 that have achieved the feat, plus Getzlaf who has 25 the past 3 years, plus Fleury and some pretty solid D (Suter, Burns, Coburn)… 2003 is on its way to ending up as the best draft of all-time since 1989.
- By the way, Toronto’s 2003 draft picks who made it to the NHL? John Mitchell, Jeremy Williams…
and that’s it.
I will now light myself on fire.
- some of the more recent draft classes haven’t had time to develop into 30+ goal scorers yet.
If you think that we overpaid for Kessel by giving up 2 first-rounders because we can just go draft 2 in the next 2 drafts, head on down to the casino, find a craps table, and put a bet down that the shooter will roll craps (a 2, 7 or 12). Then do it again. Did you win both rolls? If so, you just won a 49-1 bet, a pretty significant longshot
And that’s approximately how hard statistics say it would be to draft 30 goal scorers in 2 consecutive drafts.
Resident Capologist
by clrkaitken on Oct 20, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 10 recs
Kessel trade haters and Leaf haters in general, can, as LD says, DIAF.
"We've had an ongoing problem with Grabovski this year." Bob Gainey, 4/04/09
by kidkawartha on Oct 20, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just taking the defensemen and goalies out of the equation, and noting at what point in the first round each forward was drafted.
1994: 3 30 goal scorers out of 14 forwards picked. Jeff O’Neill (5th overall), Ryan Smyth (6th), Jeff Friesen (11th)
1995: 5 30 goal scorers out of 13 forwards picked. Daymond Langkow (5th), Shane Doan (7th), Radek Dvorak (10th), Jarome Iginla (11th), Petr Sykora (18th)
1996: 1 30 goal scorer out of 12 forwards picked. Daniel Briere (24th)
1997: 5 30 goal scorers out of 16 forwards picked. Joe Thornton (1st), Patrick Marleau (2nd), Olli Jokinen (3rd), Marian Hossa (12th), Brenden Morrow (25th)
1998: 3 30 goal scorers out of 15 forwards picked. Vincent Lecavalier (1st), Simon Gagne (22nd), Scott Gomez (27th)
1999: 2 30 goal scorers out of 17 forwards picked. Daniel Sedin (2nd), Martin Havlat (26th)
2000: 6 30 goal scorers out of 21 forwards picked. Dany Heatley (2nd), Marian Gaborik (3rd), Scott Hartnell (6th), Alexander Frolov (20th), Brad Boyes (24th), Justin Williams (28th)
2001: 2 30 goal scorers out of 18 forwards picked. Ilya Kovalchuk (1st), Jason Spezza (2nd)
2002: 2 30 goal scorers out of 19 forwards picked. Rick Nash (1st), Alexander Semin (13th)
2003: 8 30 goal scorers out of 22 forwards picked. Eric Staal (2nd), Nathan Horton (3rd), Thomas Vanek (5th), Jeff Carter (11th), Dustin Brown (13th), Zach Parise (17th), Mike Richards (24th), Corey Perry (28th)
2004: 2 30 goal scorers (Mike Green omitted as he isn’t a forward) out of 17 forwards picked. Alexander Ovechkin (1st), Evgeni Malkin (2nd)
2005: 4 30 goal scorers out of 17 forwards picked. Sidney Crosby (1st), Bobby Ryan (2nd), Devin Setoguchi (8th), Anze Kopitar (11th)
2006: 3 30 goal scorers out of 17 forwards picked. Jonathan Toews (3rd), Phil Kessel (5th), Bryan Little (12th)
So out of 218 forwards drafted, 46 scored 30 or more goals in a season at some point…or 21.1% of them. Of these, 21 were picked in the top 5…so let’s hope the Leafs can at least get out of there… :S
Truculence...starting 10/1/09
by LeafBoy on Oct 20, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
for awesomeness
Me too.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
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by jrwendelman on Oct 20, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome
Thanks for joining.
And even if you’re right, is a 30 goal scorer worth 2 first round picks? Just a thought.
Two lottery tickets. Could be worth it, could not be. It’s definitely a gamble.
The difference with Blake was that he was 33 and not 21.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Oct 20, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goal scoring talent is not governed solely on the ability of people to pass the puck. Sure, Savard had a hand in it, he’s a pretty damn good player for the Bruins. It appears Kessel’s overall skill produces alot of the goals. That’s quite the wrister.
I think he’s good for 30 goals a season, which if he provides, will produce loads of assists for the guys blessed playing with him. This season might be a bit of a struggle to get into the flow with the Leafs (not that they’ve had tons of positive flow), but he might still pop 20 or so.
great post, Arch.
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by blindfolded tank driver on Oct 19, 2009 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
SHOULD ALSO MENTION
3 of the goals were against Vesa Toskala, so take them for what they are.
PS – actually look at the 3 Toskala lets in. Hilarious.
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by Archimedies on Oct 19, 2009 10:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the 5 hole goal is vintage vesa
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by JaredFromLondon on Oct 19, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I took a look at Kessel’s goals myself here at my own blog a little while ago, just the Even-Strength goals scored in the regular season and the two empty-netters filtered out. Maybe for a handful of goals you could say Savard had a lot to do with creating it due to his playmaking skills. Aside from that, much of Kessel’s goals were due to his “ridiculous speed and incredible shot”. Looks like a pure sniper to me.
by Slava Duris #24 on Oct 19, 2009 10:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Was also going to say, Savard assisted on only two of Kessel’s 8 Power-Play goals. And I think Kessel played, without looking it up, roughly 2 minutes on the PP per game with Boston last season, behind about a handful of other Bruins forwards. He ought to get a bit more PP time this season, maybe 4 minutes or more, you’d think a guy who can shoot like that would be money on the PP.
by Slava Duris #24 on Oct 19, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Considering the surgery he’s coming off of, I’m not expecting a lot for the first month or more. I think we’ll see Kessel come on strong in the 2nd half. 20 – 25 goals, IMO, is a more likely final tally. I fully expect 40+ in 2010-11 though.
by birky on Oct 20, 2009 1:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
awesomely awesome.
"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...
by blurr1974 on Oct 20, 2009 2:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just a Thought
It seems somewhat clear to me that the case has been made that Savard’s direct effect on Kessel’s goal-scoring isn’t quite what’s being bandied about in some quarters.
However…
What I think is being lost in the shuffle is the indirect effect the quality of Kessel’s teammates on his ability to score goals.
Kessel has a 5-v-5 QUALTEAM of 0.225, which was the 58th highest among all the league’s skaters, and 39th among skaters who played 41 or more games (574 skaters). That’s elite level talent he was playing with by most standards. I’m curious to see what will happen when he isn’t surrounded (insulated?) by a level of talent he was in Boston.
I’m not saying he’s a bust, and the guy is a pure goal scorer, but I’m a little worried about what he can do without an intimidating level of talent around him.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Oct 20, 2009 3:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. Just because Marc Savard (or any player, for that matter) wasn’t warping pucks through space-time to set up Kessel for 34 tap-ins doesn’t mean that Kessel didn’t greatly benefit from his (and others’) presence on the ice.
Lots of simple, obvious scoring plays actually require quite a bit of hockey sense and skill. Can Kessel score off of a rebound when our players can’t get shots through, or when Blake shoots the puck into the logo? Do Matt Stajan or John Mitchell have the ability to take that extra step and find the open man to start a play? If Kessel has to chip and chase more with guys like that do his 6 hits become more of a problem? Can the Leafs breakout create odd-man chances? Can we get a save or a shot block at our end to even create enough rush chances?
Look, Kessel’s a skilled individual, he has great wheels and an excellent shot. But good players do a lot more than make unreal passes, and they make it seem easy and obvious when lesser players would never have been able to make a play or keep one going.
I’m not saying Kessel won’t score goals, because he will. But I am saying that, despite Archie’s excellent and noble effort, watching 5 second clips of a goal isn’t science, isn’t proof. Rather than try and convince ourselves of a saviour how about we just temper our expectations and hope for the team to pull together with the bonus of an added gun.
by koopa kid on Oct 20, 2009 4:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marc Savard (or any player, for that matter) wasn’t warping pucks through space-time to set up Kessel
I like this phrasing. I believe it to be closer to the truth than the simple “pass.”
Join me on the Hockey Blog Adventure! (or Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Oct 20, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rather than try and convince ourselves of a saviour how about we just temper our expectations and hope for the team to pull together with the bonus of an added gun.
The argument is: Kessel will never score because Savard won’t be spoonfeeding him goals.
Archi is showing that maybe Kessel will be able to score without Savard not that he’ll pot 50.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Oct 20, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
…MAYBE…
Join me on the Hockey Blog Adventure! (or Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Oct 20, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pfft, with Kadri as his pivot, he’ll score 60!
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is, having a sniper means Kadri is going to look better. Kadri playing with confidence is going to make Kessel better. Kadri and Kessel is going to be a scary threat next year or the year after.
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by Chemmy on Oct 20, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly, not to mention who ever is on their wing is going to benefit massively from their play. Probably have inflated point totals from easy goals and secondary assists.
I can only imagine if the Leafs put a comparable skill on the other side.
or they could throw players that are mild talents and trade them for inflated values
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Special K line…
"Sanity is not statistical." - George Orwell, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...
by blurr1974 on Oct 20, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Anti-Klan line.
"We've had an ongoing problem with Grabovski this year." Bob Gainey, 4/04/09
by kidkawartha on Oct 20, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The argument was about whether or not the Savard Effect exists and the impact it would have on Phil’s play, using video evidence that doesn’t actually tell the right story. I’m just trying to say there’s more to a scoring play than the names of the players that get assists.
It’s clear that Kessel can score goals, to anybody. The question is rather if he can score enough to be worth his price tag, which funnily enough becomes higher the less impact he has.
Come on, you can read the comments PPP. This doesn’t disprove that players greatly benefit from being on strong, winning teams, and attempting to mitigate critical thinking of Kessel’s play or how the Leafs can play with him is setting the community up for shock and disappointment once again.
by koopa kid on Oct 20, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s clear that Kessel can score goals, to anybody.
But it’s not clear to a lot of people that exist outside of this community that say that Kessel will not score at all without Marc Savard. Yes, you are saying that he can score and pointing out that he played with good linemates (against the opposition’s best players) but the majority of the flak that Leaf fans are facing is that he won’t pot another to save his life.
This doesn’t disprove that players greatly benefit from being on strong, winning teams, and attempting to mitigate critical thinking of Kessel’s play or how the Leafs can play with him is setting the community up for shock and disappointment once again.
Who’s mitigating the critical thinking? You’re showing stats that he had great linemates, bkblades points out that he faced the toughest competition, and everyone else just likes a great wrist shot that comes independent of any outside input.
As for the rest, God forbid fans wonder how the new signing might fit in or who he might play with.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Oct 20, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess my point was that while the DIRECT impact of the Savard Effect isn’t what’s being trumpeted in some quarters, the INDIRECT EFFECT of his very excellent teammates on his goal-scoring last year is, to me, of some concern until proven otherwise.
Now, considering QUALCOMP and QUALTEAM are essentially the same stat for different sides of the ice, I’d have to say that his QUALTEAM trumps his QUALCOMP. And while you can say he faced the stiffest opposition of nearly all B’s players, the guys he was on the ice with generally speaking were head and shoulders above who they were playing.
Take that away from Kessel and I’m not sure what you get. That’s all Koopa and I are trying to say – that while he has a proven scoring touch, we’re not sure to what extent it can flourish when he isn’t playing with an elite centre, a feared winger and a Norris trophy defensemen.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Oct 20, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we’re not sure to what extent it can flourish when he isn’t playing with an elite centre, a feared winger and a Norris trophy defensemen.
We’re not saying he’s going to flourish.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Oct 21, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very nice review
Thank you for taking the time to analyze Kessel’s goals. I’ve always thought this was a good trade and his dependence on Savard was overrated. If Savard is all that, then how come Kovalchuk’s production never tanked?
The naysayers should be more worried about Dominic Moore. His production hasn’t exactly been a point a game since he’s not riding shotgun with Jason Blake anymore.
by Rock Outta SoCal on Oct 20, 2009 3:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good job Archi
November is becoming even sweeter to me
Space Weed Says Now Endorsed by Tyler Bozak
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by Space Weed on Oct 20, 2009 8:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I subscribe to the theory that Kessel’s scoring is a result of the “awesomeness effect”
I'm not even supposed to be here today..!
by Shield on Oct 20, 2009 8:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Woo! Kessel!
Nice work Archi.
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* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
by Chemmy on Oct 20, 2009 9:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, I think the fact that this guy hasnt even hit his prime yet is the best part of all of this. The guy looked amazing at 21…. wait until the guy is 23,24,25. The team around him will be better and he will be even better as well.
The only way this deal is a loss is if the leafs finish in the bottom 5 this year and next and Boston gets 2 very good players.
Also, people seem to forget that this kid has been a highly touted sniper since he was a junior. He was a projected 1st overall pick and scored some amazing goals while playing for team USA. There was no Marc Savard playing with him in junior and on the US national team. Check out a couple goals Kessel scored against team sweden, they might be even better than any goal he scored in the NHL.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Oct 20, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
also the fact that the leafs have several decent playmaking centers in the system, Kadri, Bozak and even Dido all would complement kessels speed and shot perfectly
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as shitty as this season has started i still think there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and it is pretty bright…
As far as im concerned the only thing we should worry about is not finishing dead last (or in the bottom 5) because I still beleive we are on the right path.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Oct 20, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
indeed, if the Leafs finish anywhere between 6-10th I can live with it comfortably. there is still much room for re-tooling by Burke and this team is far from complete, id say hovering around 50% of the players are in place for the team that will eventually compete for a cup
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Toronto also has a ton of cap space freeing up. If Gustavsson is a serviceable #1 goaltender next offseason is going to rule.
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by Chemmy on Oct 20, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
definetly, If gustavsson signs a reasonable deal, the leafs will probably have close to 10 mill to go shopping with
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yay shopping!
I'm not even supposed to be here today..!
by Shield on Oct 20, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see “there’s always next year” replacing “there’s always next offseason” in your future.
Join me on the Hockey Blog Adventure! (or Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Oct 20, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we’re looking at it more as the third period of our rebuild,
first period- clean house in management and fix scouting
second period- lay the groundwork with some free agents and good young talent
third period – add final ingredients, bake at 82 games, 4 playoff rounds if necessary.
OT – If necessary, add icing
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shootout – Fuck shootouts
I'm not even supposed to be here today..!
by Shield on Oct 20, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
correct me if im wrong but i beleive the leafs have an option for a 2nd year with Gustavsson and wouldnt have to sign him to a new deal this summer, which means we would have alot of money to play with this summer.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Oct 20, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
from what I gather on capgeek, it was a one year deal and he’s an RFA next year
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmm… i swear i remember Burke saying on the fan when he signed him that they had an option year…… meh
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Oct 20, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It could very well be, but I can’t find any info on it
Refusing To Bow To Your Standards Since 2006
by JaredFromLondon on Oct 20, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
s’all good.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Oct 20, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope
It’s a one-year deal and then he’s an RFA so Burke has the option of signing him or letting him go but it’s nothing to do with a special clause in his contract.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Oct 20, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks P
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Oct 20, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to rec this, and clrkaitken’s comment, all day.
Great job guys.
Being a Leaf fan here requires one to be sufficiently lubricated... and truculent!
by stucky on Oct 20, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't stop.....
watching this video. Is that wrong?
by birky on Oct 20, 2009 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Short answer, no.
"We've had an ongoing problem with Grabovski this year." Bob Gainey, 4/04/09
by kidkawartha on Oct 20, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
outstanding post arch, well done.
and fuck savard, kessel doesn’t need him. unless we sign him in the offseason, then he rules.
by daoust on Oct 20, 2009 11:40 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
i know where ya comming from
leafs fans i know where ya comming from. Being a bruins fan with a terrible owner, and seeing kessel play +40 games live, he doesnt need savard to score goals. Kessel made Savard better, screw it he made everyone better on this team. I think you leafs fans are in for a good run with kessel. As for the two first rounders thanks! the pick this year is looking promising since you guys have not won a game yet. Without kessel you guys might just be the worst hockey team right now! when kessel comes back hes deff going to win some games for you but thats about another month or two away. I am disgusted with the trade as all of us fans in boston. We finally felt like we had a star on are team to cope with the ovechkins and crosbys and then boom phil the thrill was gone, just like jumbo joe. I hope when the leafs play the bruins, kessel scores a hat trick i really do
by Riche B on Oct 21, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We are definately playing like one of the worst teams in the league, but I don’t think that makes us the worst.
Thanks for the opposing viewpoint on the trade though. Usually whenever a big player gets traded what you normally get is a lot of “Oh he was trouble in the locker-room anyways” “Or haha he is going to tank now” etc etc.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
by JohnnyG on Oct 21, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya
this makes a nice break from all the habs fans stopping by saying “get used to Komisarek sucking, blah blah”. Though in their case they seem to genuinely mean it.
:\
and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)
by Wan Ihite on Oct 21, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously. Komi hasn’t been as bad as people think. Outside of the opening night game against Montreal where he was all amped up. And got an unlocking double minor high stick (unlucky in the fact that the Montreal player started to bleed).
Other then that he has taken one really poorly timed penalty.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
by JohnnyG on Oct 22, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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