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If that 2.86% holds true for the Leafs should they make the playoffs, then the futures market gave...
If that 2.86% holds true for the Leafs should they make the playoffs, then the futures market gave Toronto a 58% chance of making the playoffs prior to the season and are still giving the Leafs a 28% chance of making the playoffs. (This implies that the Leafs are a .523 team, which is an overestimate.) This isn't a perfect futures market, and the people who set the lines hedge a bit so that they'll make money even if any unlikely outcome occurs (this hedge is known as the 'vig'.) If I remove the vig (as Tango suggests in the comments below), I get 39% and 17%, respectively. Are these gamblers nuts?! Didn't we just hear that the Leafs have a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs?
Gabriel Desjardins, whose site Behind The Net Hockey should be a daily stop, takes a look at what the money men actually think about the Maple Leafs' chances of making the playoffs and the relative strength of the team. Aside from being another point refuting Feschuk's article it also shows that Burke wasn't the only one expecting a much better team than what has been shown. Edited because of an update
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