Ole' Blue Eyes Is Back.
by Mattblack on Dec 13, 2009 8:04 AM EST
in From The Branches
Email
Print...although with seventeen points in his last sixteen games, he never went away. Perhaps I owe this man an apology for suggesting a kitten sniper was going to take him out a few weeks back.
I'll level with you good people - I was absolutely full of scotch last night and I want to get back to my bed, so let's down the coffee and head straight to the links.
- Leafs take the Caps 6 to 3 and hold hell, hot damn ain't it sweet? Game reviews come courtesy of Fallen Leafs, Space Weed, MLHS's gameday thread, the Hockey News and an opposing view from Japers' Rink.
- Lucky devil Bloge Salming scored a job making teasers for Leafs TV. Lucky us, he shares his work with us here.
- Dr Steve weighs in with a look at how it's gone down of late and also pinning down DC's definition of a top six forward.
- Taking the forward baton and running, AkiSchennberg has a look at the current Leafs forward roster.
- High time for some praise right now. No Stanley Cups Allowed proposes a new nickname for Matty S..
- ...and Hart Ross writes on the second coming of Jesus - this time out of Madison, WI.
- Always with the bigger picture in mind, Archimedies has OLAS in the press box.
- Puck Daddy sticks with the top 10 of the decade theme - this time with the bestest all-star happenings of the last 10 years.
As always please throw anything I've missed in the links and I'll attend to it once I've had a complete change of blood and spent a few hours in a dark room emitting low moans.
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Remember the pre-season guys?
“who’s gonna score goals for this Leafs team?”, “they don’t have ANY offensive firepower!” or “they should’ve improved their offense like the Habs!”
well, the Leafs are 9th in the league in GFA at 2.86. On the defensive side though…
Secret Stajent Man?
Staj-Puft Marshmallow Man?
Jon Stajmos?
Second-Staj Rocket?
Stajanimal?
Can it before I drive this truculence through your faceulence and put you in an ambulance.
by Brunswick Bruiser on Dec 13, 2009 9:10 AM EST reply actions
TSN coined “Centre Stajan”
Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
by blindfolded tank driver on Dec 13, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
that is way too clever for TSN, I wonder who they stole it from
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 13, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
Not sure. Probably someone on the interwebs! thievery!
Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
by blindfolded tank driver on Dec 13, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
I’m feeling a little bit conflicted today.
On the one hand, I think Leaf fans get way too excited about some of the guys on this team. Yes, guys like Hagman and Stajan and even Stempniak have a good game every now and then. But generally speaking, they’re overrated in Toronto and I’d like to see Burke move as many of them as he can. Even the Ian White love is getting a little too thick. You have to detach yourself emotionally, and focus on being realistic about these players.
On the other hand… good god Alex Ponikarovsky is a beast! This guy is pure nails, I love watching him play, and I think we should retire his number soon. Well, co-retire it, at a ceremony also featuring Todd Gill.
But still… good god. ~PONI!
Down Goes Brown - Unapologetically nostalgic for the past. Brutally realistic about the present. Grudgingly optimistic about the future.
by Down Goes Brown on Dec 13, 2009 10:50 AM EST reply actions
If Stajan wants anything around 2.5, sign him up. Give Poni whatever he wants as long as he doesn’t cross 3.5. Hagman is good at 3. If we have cap contracts then we should be good with these guys and can still add better pieces.
none of the three
can make more than $3M and not be overpaid, in the context of the current league.
Of the three, Stajan’s the one I’d pump-and-dump, but i Like Poni at up to $3M
Poni and Hags are on pace for 30 goals, Hagman has gotten close year after year and Poni was always good for around 20 (and almost always in our top 3 in +/-)
3 mil is not overpaying either of these guys, more so Hagman.
4 million, on the other hand, is overpaying them.
"If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Dec 13, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
How many guys in the league put up 2 straight years of 50+ points and then signed a UFA contract for under $3 million? I’ll bet it’s a tiny minority of guys meeting those thresholds. I think it’s dreaming in technicolor to think Stajan signs for less. Has anyone looked at the contracts teams are doling out?
That’s not to say I think we should re-sign him. I think the key in this league is avoiding the $4-5 million contract for second tier guys. Is Komisarek that much better than Gunnarsson, who makes $850,000? Would you rather have Komisarek ($4.5MM) and Stajan at $3.5MM or Gunnarsson and $7MM for a first line centre? And I’m not even going to talk about what Finger plus Blake could buy you. This is why we should avoid any UFA, including our own, that’s not undervalued (e.g. Hagman, Kaberle) or a tier one player. The marginal value over a minimum salary guy just isn’t worth it otherwise.
by The '67 Sound on Dec 13, 2009 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
Komisarek and Gunnarsson are completely different players, I’m not sure why you’d consider only keeping one of them.
Gunnarsson and Kaberle, on the other hand…
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 13, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
Ian White… 650,000
I’d triple his Salary to keep him – around 2 mil
"If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Dec 13, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
yah, sign white to term not to dollar. hell front load it. 6 years at 2-2.5
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 13, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
Then give him the ‘C’
LOL no not dredging up that whole debate again, just tweakin a bit
"If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Dec 13, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Someone drank a 40 of smart ass last night.
I am Mikhail Grabovski's smirking revenge.
by kidkawartha on Dec 13, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
hahaha
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 13, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Rec'd
for the Buffy The Vampire Slayer caption reference…Niiiiiiiiiice…
But Stajan? Yeah. I have yet to be-leaf. I like him on my team, but if he’s one of your top 2 centres (and getting paid as such) I don’t think you’re a good team.
On the other hands, PLAYOFFS!!!1. 4 points back, yo.
Someday a player who has gotten a point-per-game and is actually getting more points than our new god may finally get a bit of a break among us.
i'll concede a point
but i don’t see enough evidence that Stajan’s the guy stirring the drink. Or that he can, for the next 4-5 years, do so while playing the tough minutes.
And this franchise has had too many boneheaded transactions in the last 5 years or so that they can afford to roll the dice on Operation Stajan Is A Number One Centre.
They need a sure thing.
I’m not exactly president of the I <3 Stajan Fan Club here, but this is a ridiculous statement.
You’re right, Stajan is not the straw stirring the drink; the straw is Phil Kessel. And since that straw’s shown up, Stajan’s scored 8 goals and 10 assists in 20 games. Whatever that drink is, I’ll order it all night long.
But here’s my biggest issue; you say we need a sure thing. So say you don’t bring back Stajan; who’s your new No. 1 Centre?
Is it Olli Jokinen, who’s going to get a Scott Gomez 2.0 contract in a lean free agent market?
Is it Patrick Marleau, assuming he becomes available? Oh, don’t forget that he’s having a career season, and every other team with cap space is going to go hard after him; his cap will be $7.5 easy. Bye bye cap space to improve the goaltending, which is the sole determinant in whether this team makes the playoffs or not.
Is it Mikhail Grabovski, who’s a year younger, has four less years of experience, and has a lower offensive ceiling than Stajan?
Is it Tyler Bozak, he of one whole NHL game, who has struggled to adapt to the pros in the AHL?
Or is it Nazem Kadri, a 19 year old rookie that you’re going to put the weight of the world on by making him graduate immediately to the top line AND make sure he has chemistry with Kessel (which Stajan already has)?
Matt Stajan is not Dominic Moore 2.0. Moore’s numbers were inflated because the Antro, Poni, Stajan line protected them and he played softer minutes. Stajan’s playing against the top defence every night, and he’s responded by playing his best hockey. I don’t understand how the fact that Wilson uses Stajan in a different role than Quinn and Maurice did somehow means that Stajan isn’t worth considering to keep around, especially considering the limited alternatives available.
If you ask me, letting a 26 year old walk right as he’s shown glimpses of reaching his prime as a player is the boneheaded transaction this frnachise has made too many times.
Resident Capologist
by clrkaitken on Dec 13, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i think most fans just have a hard time wrapping their head around ‘little matty stajan’ being a top-line center. our last top-line center was Sundin, so by comparison Stajan hardly measures up, not to mention we have years of watching stajan inconsistently show moderate hockey skills. we forget he’s only 26 though, maybe (like Poni) he’s finally hitting his stride and he has 4 or 5 years of high-level hockey ahead of him?
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
Maybe
but we’re still not working off enormous sample sizes for him (though last season makes it not-a-tiny one), and he doesn’t LOOK like a dominant forward when he plays. You don’t see him in there pushing people around or burying pretty goals or dangling past people… So there’s no punch visual evidence he rocks… just moderately good numbers starting to trickle in.
So I guess, how much do you believe your eyes vs. the numbers, and how big a sample size do you want on the numbers to believe?
Thank You Clrkaitken
This is exactly the point I was going to make last night, but was too tired to put together coherently.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 13, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
your point about the lack of alternatives is very valid
Of any one of the centres available, I’d be interested in Marleau at the right price. But due to the scarcity around him, he’s going to get a huge deal, i know.
And poaching a young RFA is not an option either, because, you know, we’ve already done that and don’t have the picks to trade.
But that doesn’t mean we should anoint Matt Stajan as the No. 1 centre simply because there’s nobody else. I’d probably advocated to signing a veteran with some offense, and let him pad his stats and then flip him for a pick. Which is what we should be doing with Stajan.
I’d be quite content to sit and wait for a No 1 centre to emerge. Matt Stajan can play there as long as he wants, for reasonable dollars, but giving him No1 centre type money means when someone better DOES emerge.
I won’t belabour the point, as ultimately, i dont think it’s going to happen. But giving Matt Stajan big money over long term to play an offensive role will be a mistake.
I will be the first to retract the statement if I’m proven wrong.
that fourth graph
should have “then we won’t have the dollars to sign him because we overpaid for Stajan back in 2010” tacked on to the end.
In conclusion, Matt Stajan is not a No. 1 centre.
Centers at a PPG this year
Thornton
Sedin
Crosby
Kopitar
Backstrom
Richards
Getzlaf
Marleau
Malkin
Stajan, playing with Kessel, is just under that group. That is pretty damn impressive and it doesn’t matter if he’s not a true first line center. If he’s playing like one, which he is, and makes around 3 million next year, then we may have a steal on our hands.
I would say you're right on
Kessel is scoring consistently, the team’s goals are starting to show up. I say, let him play for the Leafs, don’t trade him just as he’s getting good.
But you see the dilemma
if you only want to trade players when they are doing lousy then you never get anything for them.
Trading isn’t a magic want that you wave on surplus players to instantly get value for them, no matter how convenient it is to try to pretend that’s how it works… trading is something where you get more back the better your player is.
Problem is, as always, is what you get for him worth more to you than Stajan was?
What about the timing? Do you trade him for a prospect with potential? Then what do you do when it doesn’t pan out.
I am not advocating going with what you are comfortable with over the unknown, but you really have to balance the value of the return you would get for a Stajan, and the value you would get as far as signing him to a 3mil a year contract over say 4 years.
"If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Dec 13, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, that's always the problem
prospects are worth less than actual players due to uncertainty over whether they will work out (balanced against prospect of huge unexpected upside), yet more valuable because they are much cheaper… it’s a balancing act and a half.
along the lines of steve’s ‘top 6’ post, and also tying into the talk about stajan and hagman above, i started thinking last night about the leafs supposed lack of ‘first-line’ talent. so i went to NHL.com this morning to find the top 30 players at C, LW and RW. the leafs have 5 players that are in the top 30 of their respective category (rank in parentheses, based on total points):
C- Stajan (24), Grabovski (29)
L – Hagman (16), Ponikarovsky (28)
R – Kessel (23)
the Kings have the most ‘top 30’ guys on their team, with 7. after that, Toronto, Dallas, New Jersey, Philly, Vancouver and Washington all have 5. St Louis is the only team to have 0, although Boyes is one spot out of the top 30 at RW. Calgary, Chicago and Detroit each only have 2. Boston has 1. Injuries are obviously a factor for many teams (hossa, savard, franzen etc).
to be honest i think some people are more interested in having flashy high-profile names than legitimate top-30 talent at each respective forward position. sure it’d be nice to have a ‘superstar’ at each position on your top line, but the reality is that that happens rarely in the NHL, and when it does, there’s usually a drop off in the remaining ‘top 6’ forwards. i think anyone who is in the top 30 of their respective position is easily deserving of $3-$3.5M in annual salary (with other factors obviously coming into play – defensive responsibility, flexibility of position, pplay/pk prowess, etc).
like i said above, i think a lot of people will always have a hard time accepting guys like stajan and poni as ‘top-line’ talent. they’ve just been around too long, and have taken so long to develop, that our minds are already made up on them. if they were on another team, and were former top 10 picks putting up the exact same numbers and were a couple of years younger, i think the conversations would be much different.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
all that being said, i’m still totally unconvinced that stajan is a top-line, or top-6, forward.
why is he such a hard dude to figure out? why am i so conflicted
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
See, Stajan isn’t a #1 centremen – and I’m saying that as a massive Stajan fan. But he’s a legitimate #2 centre who can step up no matter how you look at it. I’d be interested to see what he could do with solid wingers playing in a second line role.
You’re conflicted for the reasons you’ve stated – it’s hard to see past the fact that he was a 30 point guy for four years and didn’t perform well under Maurice (I’d say he filled his role under Quinn). So, how many seasons of 50 plus points does he need to convince you?
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 13, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Have we ever considered moving Grabo to Wing?
I like Stajan as the second center, but I like Grabo as a top 6 forward as well.
my main beef
is that he’s soft. Go at him physically and his offense shrivels up. That’s not what top lines are made of, I don’t think. Top lines have to be able to make something out of nothing.
I can live with him as a No. 2 though. Hell, I like him on my team, but the thought of locking him up long term as this team’s No 1 centre just scares me.
Sorry, is this conversation about Stajan? Because that first paragraph sums up Kessel perfectly.
I don’t think Stajan’s really all that soft. He’s not a big guy sure, and he’ll never be able to play like one, but he’s always willing to take a hit to make a play and he’s surprisingly effective on the forecheck when he’s trying. It’s consistency in his work ethic that’s the problem, which is why some nights he disappears.
Or more importantly: we’re scoring. We need to stop giving up goals.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
But what your data is showing is that
the top teams have more concentrated scoring talent – more stars and scrubs, while the mediocre teams have more distributed scoring talent.
Look at the Rangers
when all they had were superstars. Not a good picture.
all they had
were over the hill washed up former superstars. Different animal. UFA didn’t start until you were pretty old back then.
this case has the magnitude requires a large fund, but I imagine the contribution rate amongst Leafs fans will be quite high.
Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
by blindfolded tank driver on Dec 13, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
How about a character assassination???
That’s all I can give you….over the intenet at least.
by Bloge Salming on Dec 13, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Go for it.
"Luke Schenn is Stronger than Strength."
Truculence is Everything: Vote for the Leaf of the Decade Today.
by Marc Pilgrim on Dec 13, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
That will be perfect
Space Weed Says Telling it like it is without a care about the mainstream's feelings
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on Dec 13, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
On the character assassination front
Jason “concrete shoes” Blake is already a bullet riddled corpse jam packed with cyanide, sleeping with the fishes over a bed of dynamite, with a back that consists almost entirely of knife handles.
How’s that working so far :)
Don't forget
Laser Schenn incinerating Blake’s corpse with his lasers? How’s that for added effect?
"Luke Schenn is Stronger than Strength."
Truculence is Everything: Vote for the Leaf of the Decade Today.
by Marc Pilgrim on Dec 13, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Hello. Are you there?
"Luke Schenn is Stronger than Strength."
Truculence is Everything: Vote for the Leaf of the Decade Today.
by Marc Pilgrim on Dec 13, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
kitten sniper?
Matt Stajan?
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 13, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions
This is the greatest
Space Weed Says Telling it like it is without a care about the mainstream's feelings
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on Dec 13, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think our current situation with Stajan is a dilemma unless Burke decides that he’s not signing him or can’t get him signed and we don’t deal him. Stajan’s been doing really well, last year as well as this year, but he’s not so good that we can’t replace him if it turns out he’s going to walk in the offseason.
I think Burke should attempt to resign Matty, and if he’s serious then it shouldn’t be hard to do. What I’d hate to see is the Leafs close in the playoff race near the end of the season hanging on to guys that they’ll lose for nothing in an attempt to strive for the postseason. Nobody on the roster is that irreplaceable, and we need to be diligent with working our assets.
What I’d hate to see is the Leafs close in the playoff race near the end of the season hanging on to guys that they’ll lose for nothing in an attempt to strive for the postseason.
Yeah, that’s the most worrisome thing. That would be a big problem.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
I don’t think Burke is the type to get sucked in by a late contract push. Antropov and Moore were our two best forwards down the deadline stretch last season, and he moved him both because he didn’t see them as a long-term fit with the club or he couldn’t get them at the prive that made sense going forward.
I’d go so far as to suggest that he already has an idea of who he’s interested in re-signing, and now it’s a matter of figuring out how far apart he and their agents are.
Resident Capologist
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