No, Really, Matt Stajan Is a First-Line Centre
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 10:04 AM EST
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PrintEditor's Note: Here's another good look at Matt Stajan that goes well with MF37's piece on the future building blocks of the team and The '67 Sound's look at Matt Stajan's ability to outperform his contract.
In The ’67 Sound's Fanpost earlier today Blurr wondered aloud how Matt Stajan stacks up against the other second line centres when it comes to Behind The Next type stats. I told him I'd look into it.
I did just that, and then I went a little further, cause that’s the kinda guy I am.
The Methodology
Every team in the league has at least one guy playing in a first line centre role, regardless of whether he should be or not.
Every team in the league also has one, possibly two, guys playing in a second line role, regardless of whether he (they) should be or not.
So, I essentially created a list, based almost purely on Ice Time, of each team’s first line centre and each team’s second line centre(s). I also disregarded guys who’ve played a limited number of games due to injury, so some guys who would be true #1 or #2 guys aren’t on here.
Head over the jump to see how Matt Stajan matches up with his peers.
That created a list of thirty-one 1st line centres (it’s impossible not to count both Malkin and Crosby), and thirty-six 2nd line centres. Both of these lists included Matt Stajan in the total count.
Here are who I determined to be the first line centres, listed alphabetically:
Andy McDonald, Anze Kopitar, Brad Richards, Brandon Dubinsky, David Legwand, Derek Roy, Eric Staal, Evgeni Malkin, Henrik Sedin, Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, John Tavares, Jonathan Toews, Marc Savard, Martin Hanzal, Matt Stajan, Mike Richards, Mikko Koivu, Nicklas Backstrom, Olli Jokinen, Paul Stastny, Pavel Datsyuk, R.J. Umberger, Rich Peverley, Ryan Getzlaf, Scott Gomez, Shawn Horcoff, Sidney Crosby, Stephen Weiss, Travis Zajac, Vincent Lecavalier
According to Behind The Net’s 5v5 statistics Stajan ranked:
24th in TOI/60
16th in Rating
24th in QUALCOMP
15th in QUALTEAM
12th in GOALS/60
10th in ASST1/60
25th in ASST2/60
13th in PTS/60
9th in GFON
8th in GAON
11th in GFON/60
9th in GAON/60
14th in +/-ON/60
So, in an entirely unscientific assumption, I’m going to state that centres who can rank 16th or better in 2/3rds of the following offensive categories - RATING, GOALS/60, ASST1/60, ASST2/60, PTS/60, GFON, GFON/60 - are the guys who can at carry the load of a first line centre. I’m using top sixteen because sixteen teams make the playoffs, and I’m rounding up from the halfway point of 31 centres.
For the record, Stajan ranks top 16 in six of the seven categories I listed above – and he’s doing it with less 5v5 ice time then 23 other first line centres.
Now, there are some apparent negatives that need to be addressed – specifically his GAON and GAON/60.
For the record, Stajan has been on for 25 goals for vs. 21 goals against, and has an average of 3.41 goals for per 60 minutes vs. 2.86 goals against per 60 minutes – meaning in any scenario he is a "plus" player, and his +/-ON/60 is good for 14th out of this group.
Further showing that his GFOFF and GFOFF/60 numbers are somewhat irrelevant is the fact that the Leafs, as a team, are a "minus" in the +/-OFF/60 category – meaning the team scores fewer goals then it allows when Stajan is off the ice. In the interest of fairness it’s worth noting that the Leafs allow fewer goals per 60 with Stajan off the ice, but their goals for drops by just over 1.1 goals per 60, which creates the minus.
So, yes, more goals are scored against him then the average (compared to 30 other first line forwards) – but his ability to put up points negates that fact to a greater extent then it first appears.
So, is Stajan a first line centre? The above, to me at least, says yes. Is he a first line centre on playoff team? The above to me says yes again. Is he a first line centre on a cup contender? Well, he’s never really had the chance, has he?
So, if Stajan is a middle of the pack first line centre, how does he fair as a second line centre?
Here are the 36 centres I determined to be the league’s second line centres (listed non-alphabetically):
Tomas Plekanec, T.J. Oshie, Steven Stamkos, Steven Reinprecht, Samuel Pahlsson, Sam Ganger, Saku Koivu, Ryan Kesler, Patrice Bergeron, Mikhail Grabovski, Mike Ribeiro, Mike Fisher, Michal Handzus, Matt Stajan, Matthew Lombardi, Matt Duchene, Matt Cullen, Kyle Brodziak, Jordan Staal, Joe Pavelski, Jeff Carter, Jason Arnott, Jarret Stoll, Eric Belanger, Doug Weight, Derek Roy, Daymond Langkow, David Krejci, Dave Bolland, Darren Helm, Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, Bryan Little, Brooks Laich, Brian Rolston, Brendan Morrisson
According to Behind The Net’s 5v5 statistics Stajan ranked:
4th in TOI/60
11th in Rating
20th in QUALCOMP
13th in QUALTEAM
12th in GOALS/60
6th in ASST1/60
28th in ASST2/60
10th in PTS/60
Tied for 2nd in GFON (Only Micky Grabs is ahead)
4th in GAON
3rd in GFON/60
10th on GAON/60
14th in +/-ON/60
So, his TOI/60 goes way up, and he generally improves in every category.
Some things to note, as this isn’t really an apples to apples comparison.
Firstly, the list of second line guys has 36 centres vs. the 31 first line players, so when Stajan goes from 13th to 10th in PTS/60 he’s actually ahead of 26 guys instead of 18. Just felt like that was important.
Secondly, from my entirely unscientific observation Stajan has played a large portion of his 5v5 minutes against the opposition’s first line guys – and I’m not sure that the other guys on this list are doing that. I’m not saying they aren’t, but in all honesty, I really don’t know.
Thirdly, he’s producing his points with Phil Kessel, and he probably wouldn’t be playing in a second line role with a guy like Kessel riding shotgun. That’s not to say he wouldn’t have some talent with him, but he wouldn’t necessarily have a talent like Kessel, so his numbers could possibly be inflated compared to second line guys.
Anyhow, that’s how Stajan stacks up against what I consider to be the leagues best.
I have a spreadsheet I’ve made that’s tracked all of the stats I’ve quoted, so if anyone wants it shoot me an email.
PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.
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Jason Arnott’s the first line center for Nashville, everyone knows that
Space Weed Says Telling it like it is without a care about the mainstream's feelings
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on Dec 15, 2009 10:31 PM EST reply actions
Aside from that and listing Brian Rolston as a center, this is actually pretty good
Space Weed Says Telling it like it is without a care about the mainstream's feelings
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on Dec 15, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
So, I essentially created a list, based almost purely on Ice Time, of each team’s first line centre and each team’s second line centre(s). I also disregarded guys who’ve played a limited number of games due to injury, so some guys who would be true #1 or #2 guys aren’t on here.
This is PPP's work account until further notice. Damn Internet.
by David Danforth on Dec 16, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Inaccuracies in Position Listings
I’m going to admit that I might not be totally aware of who plays what position with complete accuracy when it comes to the whole league.
We all know that NHL.com isn’t entirely accurate, and neither is BTN. Generally speaking, I went with what BTN has listed as a players position, although I did have to play around a bit, as BTN has Pavelski as a winger, not a centre.
So, there’s probably some weird stuff in there, but I think by and large it’s a pretty accurate list.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 15, 2009 11:25 PM EST reply actions
Nice work.
I would love to see how Stajan’s numbers break down when he plays with Kessel and when he’s paired with other skaters.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Honestly, probably not very well. But it’s not like any Leaf covered themselves in glory to start the year.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks for breaking it down. One thing I notice is the Qual Comp Stajan plays against is 24th and 20th respectively. Those numbers seem to indicate that he plays against the “weaker” opponents out of both groups. I don’t know how much that has changed since Kessel’s arrival (I imagine his QUAL Comp has become higher), so I wonder if his quality of competition improves as the season wears on, if Stajan continues his scoring pace.
In any case, glad to see some advanced metrics to combine with The ’67ers solid work earlier.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
Well, some of that can be attributed to Stajan being bounced around from first to fourth line before he solidified his spot with Kessel. Some of it can also be attributed to Wilson employing a checking-line, something the Leafs’ didn’t previously have.
And some of that can be attributed to the fact that QUALCOMP is the RATING of all the players Stajan has lined up against weighted for the amount of time he spent playing against them.
So, if he’s spent a lot of time playing against top guys with negative ratings like Marc Savard, Jason Spezza, or Tim Connolly (to name a few) it’s going to make his QUALCOMP look less impressive then it really is.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
good eye bk!
that was the first thing that jumped out at me as well.
To Pamplemousse’s point, I was going to assume Wilson’s penchant for line juggling should be a factor in that, but Kessel’s QUALCOMP is just 0.01 higher than Stajan’s (0.19 for Kessel, 0.18 for Stajan.) I’m not going to pretend I understand what any of that means, except to ask that maybe the correlation is not there as it pertains to bouncing from line to line?
Interesting non-sequitor stat – Kulemin has the highest QUALCOMP for any Leaf forward, and third overall on the team behind Beauchemin and Ian White. That’s pretty impressive…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Would a low QUALCOMP stat not mean that a line is always facing checkers rather than going power against power?
Leaf, the universe and everything.
i don’t know. Is that what it means? I assumed the higher the QUALCOMP = the higher the competition. I’ve no idea how he measures the quality.
One day I’ll actually read that site…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
I can only assume that they’re equating quality to offensive production. If you’re facing the top checking line of the opposition, then they’d tend to have a lower quality rating.
Similarly, if Wilson likes to match a checking line against the opposition’s top forwards, then by default your third line will have the highest QUALCOMP. Doesn’t make ’em the best forwards.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
yes
which is why, with Kulemin being all of 22 years old, and facing the toughest offensive competition on the team, it’s impressive to me.
maybe i worded it wrong? I just mean, that for his age, the trust that seems to be getting places with him is a good thing developmentally. Kulemin may not be the offensive dynamo I was hoping for, but if he turns into a great shut down player, that’s just as good. His size and speed work really well in that aspect of the game.
like i said, non-sequitor and not really related to the topic of Stajan. Just a little surprised that Kulemin was tops…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
OK - I looked it up
How is the ‘Strength of Opponents’ or ‘Quality of Competition’ statistic calculated?
It is the average On/Off-Ice +/- of the opposing players a player faces. For example, if you lined up against Anaheim’s top line, you’d get:
Name Pos Team # On/Off +/-
KUNITZ F ANA 14 +1.97
SELANNE F ANA 8 +1.65
PRONGER D ANA 25 +1.61
MCDONALD F ANA 19 +0.94
NIEDERMAYER D ANA 27 -0.31
The strength of opponent would be the average of 1.97, 1.65, 1.61, 0.94 and -0.31, which is 5.86/5 = +1.17. In general, if a player matches up against the other team’s first line, he’ll face a high strength of competition.
Realistically, unless a coach goes power against power all the time, your checkers should have the highest QUALCOMP rating.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
The converse to this is that your top players might tend to have low-appearing QUALCOMP stats. If the main fear of an opposing coach is that they’ll be scored against when your top line is out there, they’ll put out their shutdown guys, not their scorers.
So when a Kaberle comes off with a lowish QUALCOMP, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Wilson has been hiding him defensively, as some might suggest. It’s also a reflection that when Kaberle is out there, other teams are more into making sure they don’t get burned, rather than trying to exploit any defensive weakness he might have.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
yes
it’s as i understood it then.
my point was merely that Kulemin, at such a young age, appears to be a go to guy for Wilson when it comes to shutting down the other teams top players. I just like seeing that it’s him, and not Mayers or Primeau. Small things make me happy.
didn’t mean to derail the discussion, but it’s good to know nonetheless
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Certainly
It’s good that he’s found a niche like this.
My point was more the opposite – the fact that a given player shows a low QUALCOMP doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s not a good player. It might mean precisely the opposite.
Now, QUALCOMP is dependent on plus/minus stats, which again, don’t always tell the entire story. A checker who, on average, gets outscored by the best lines in hockey once every four games, finishes as a -20. Arguably, if your checking line holds the opposition at bay three games out of four, you should be winning an awful lot….
Leaf, the universe and everything.
Wonder if you'd have to look at it for home vs. away games
when you have the last line change or not.
This puts the numbers behind what I’ve always thought… Stajan is a good player and I like him. Heard a lot of dissenting voices about him and never really understood why. But, didn’t have anything other than opinion to back my stance up so couldn’t really say much. Thanks for validating my thoughts! :D
-Graham-
by CanadianMaple09 on Dec 16, 2009 12:33 AM EST reply actions
i like him too
but do you really want to lock up big money, long term to him at this stage?
Do you like him at $3M? $4M? $5M?
I can be convinced he’s a decent No. 2 option. But i like him so much precisely because he’s been outplaying his contract for years now. Same with White and Poni. Same with Antro, who we wisely let walk once he got what he “deserved”
But there’s just no way I can be sold on the idea that a Cup contending team can have Matt Stajan as it’s No. 1 pivot.
Based on the year he’s going to have and the dearth of viable alternatives as UFAs, I’m worried that’s about to happen.
If he wants $3.5 per over 3 years I am not opposed. Maybe even $4 million. I think for a guy that can play powerplay, shorthanded, even strength with just about anybody and click, he’s worth it. He can fill in on the first line until we acquire a legit first line centre or until one of our prospects develops into a first line centre. At that point I don’t think $4 million a year or less is a huge albatross around the Leafs’ neck for a second-line centre. Hopefully by the time we’re contenders Blake’s stupid contract will be off the books. The stats show Stajan can do a good job on the first line… like I said, I still don’t understand why a lot of people are so against him or more recently, why so many people aren’t willing to give him the raise he deserves.
-Graham-
by CanadianMaple09 on Dec 16, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Matt Stajan is not worth $4 million. I dont go a penny over $3 with this guy, sure he is playing well right now but you will be dissapointed when he cant keep it up all year and drops back to the level we are used to seeing.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
like I said, I still don’t understand why a lot of people are so against him or more recently, why so many people aren’t willing to give him the raise he deserves.
Stajan’s stats are inflated and drop by 25 to 50% when he’s not paired with Kessel.
He had six different 5+ game goal-less droughts last season and has already had a 13 game goal-less streak this season.
His size and softness is a liability on a team overly populated by soft, small forwards.
He has the worst GA/60 among centres on the team and 3rd worst among Leaf forwards.
There’s a legitmate question as to whether the Leafs can have medium term success running Stajan and Grabovski as centres 1 and 2 and any post-season success whatsoever with that combo.
Every dollar spent on Stajan is a dollar that can’t be spent on acquiring a legitmate 1st line centre.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
by mf37 on Dec 16, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh Sure
Throw the kitchen sink why don’t ya!
But yeah, that’s about it. I guess my barrier is that having seen far too many Leafs v. Bruins games the conclusion I have reached (and it’s not unique) is that the Leafs need guys that can create their own offence in the top 6 and Matty Stajan does not do that.
This is PPP's work account until further notice. Damn Internet.
by David Danforth on Dec 16, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
DAVID DANFORTH HAS SPOKEN
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I thought the general consensus was that looking at other centres in the league and how much they are paid, you won’t get what Stajan provides for considerably less (ie paying him $3.5 million a year is not ridiculous and is not stealing cap resources from other places to accomodate it)?
About the small soft forwards, once Blake is off the team and Stalberg/Hanson are up that should take care of a bit of the size problem, and I’d prefer Stajan over Grabovski. I dunno, maybe my opinion is completely crazy and not fact-based, but it makes sense in my head! hahaha
-Graham-
by CanadianMaple09 on Dec 16, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Every dollar spent on a player steals cap resources that can be spent elsewhere. It’s a zero-sum-game. For example, every dollar that goes to Stajan is a dollar that can’t go to Ian White.
Blake is on the team to 2012. If Stajan signs a three year deal he will play all of one season on a Blake-less team.
Stalberg weighs 191 lbs. He is not an answer to the Leafs size issues.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Stalberg is 210 according to the Leafs site…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
His talent analysis says “A big player with great speed. Accelerates really well and reaches full speed very fast. Forechecks successfully and plays with good intensity.” I also thought being 6’3 counted for something?
-Graham-
by CanadianMaple09 on Dec 16, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
The stats page I looked at said 6’ 1" 191. I like your numbers way better.
Having seen him play all pre-season, would you categorize him as a physical player or a power forward? I sure wouldn’t.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Stålberg
He seemed to be pretty physical on the forecheck… power forward… I didn’t see him force his way to the front of the net with a guy hanging off him(though comparing him to Sundin does seem unfair)
I would say he is about middle of the pack on physicality – his true strength is his hands and obviously his speed.
Not sure I would classify him as a perimeter player(I haven’t seen enough of him) but I could see him taking that second line RW spot eventually.
"If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Dec 16, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
This is a brilliant post that I will reference in perpetuity.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Entire team was brutal to start the year – I think you could see a significant increase in everyone’s point production since Kessel arrived.
A 15 goal scorer is going to have goal scoring droughts. There were, at minimum, 66 games in which he didn’t register a goal. However, he was only pointless in 33 games last year. I’ll refer you to this for his stats last year.
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2009/9/19/1037466/matt-stajan-better-then-you-think
Size and softness are in the eyes of the beholder. I see a guy who’ll throw a check when needed, takes hits, plays hard on the boards and forechecks well. He’s not a big, physical guy but I’ve never really seen him shy away from the physical side of the game.
His GAON/60 is negated by his GFON/60 and his “plus” +/-/60 rating. See above.
The Leafs, right now, with Stajan and Grabbo being 1 and 2 are two spots out of a playoff position, tied for 9th in league scoring 5v5 and are on a terrific run their past 12 games or so.
Every dollar spent on Stajan means you don’t have to go out and find yourself an unknown commodity who may or may not gel with the players you already have in your system.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Entire team was brutal to start the year – I think you could see a significant increase in everyone’s point production since Kessel arrived.
And the entire team is on a hot streak right now, the stats will average down.
Size and softness are in the eyes of the beholder.
We’re never going to agree on this. I don’t see what you see.
His GAON/60 is negated by his GFON/60 and his "plus" +/-/60 rating. See above
Only so long as he’s paired with Kessel. I don’t think Stajan is a #1 centre, what happens to his GF60 when he doesn’t have a premiere winger scoring goal after goal on solo efforts?
The Leafs, right now, with Stajan and Grabbo being 1 and 2 are two spots out of a playoff position, tied for 9th in league scoring 5v5 and are on a terrific run their past 12 games or so.
The question remains: do you think the Leafs can have medium-term success, especially in a playoff environment where the goals dry up and the hitting goes way up with Stajan and Grabbo as 1 and 2C. I emphatically don’t, but I’d like to hear your thoughts.
Every dollar spent on Stajan means you don’t have to go out and find yourself an unknown commodity who may or may not gel with the players you already have in your system.
Stajan’s stats are inflated by Kessel. If Kessel goes down (Heaven forbid) the organization will have invested ~$4M in a 2nd line centre who’s output has suddenly dropped by 1/3 to 1/2. I don’t see this as a wise investement or an efficient use of cap dollars.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Great post.
In spite of this, and my own post, I still think MF37 makes a persuasive point in his blog today that Stajan may be too pricey next year to warrant re-signing. Regardless, this just confirms that we should all be appreciating everything he’s bringing to this year’s team.
perhaps i should post it over there
but, even though i’m a bigger fan of trading Stajan, i think it should be said.
While reading MF’s post, I thought about the whole “contract year bump” and wondered if that could play a factor in Stajan’s play. However, he started off pretty hot last year as well, and had a decent, although inconsistent year. I wonder if he’ll cool off again this year, or will that contract year push him over the hump?
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Actually
He started off pretty cold last year, then was benched about eight games in, then put on a line with Antro and Poni and the three of them took off.
He cooled off a bit when Antro was traded and Poni was moved to a different line to end the year.
What I didn’t consider in all of this was his play in a contract year… however, considering he is on pace to put up something like 65 points it’s not quite like Jason Blake jumping from habitual 20 goal scorer to 40 goal guy or anything like that. It’s a modest increase in points (so far).
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
but isn’t he on pace for 30 goals when his previous high is only 15?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Kinda Sorta
In 32 games he has 11 goals. That’s an average of .34 GPG.
If you multiply that by 49 (the maximum amount of games he could play for the rest of this year) you get 16.66.
So, he’s on pace for 27 goals, an increase of 12 goals – which is exactly the increase Blake had when he went from 28 goals to 40.
I guess the main difference is age – Stajan is doing this at a much younger age – and that by the time Blake had done this at age 33 he had played 506 NHL games. When Stajan does it at age 26 he’ll have played 471 games.
But you have a point when it comes to the increase.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks a bunch!
This is great stuff. Truly appreciate it!
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 10:20 AM EST reply actions
It would suck
If Stajan’s agent was reading this right now and preparing to use this type of data in contract negotiation.
Moustache Fever, not to be confused with swine flu.
If I was an NHL player I would sure hope my agent was looking at that kind of stats. After all, that is what you’re paying them for (getting a contract that fits or exceeds your performance), right?
-Graham-
by CanadianMaple09 on Dec 16, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah but I doubt most agents are the greatest at this kind of number crunching, they probably just compare contracts to other players with similar output and leave this stuff to an employee who is getting underpaid and therefore doesnt care enough to do in-depth research.
Moustache Fever, not to be confused with swine flu.
Really?
In the 1998 Kristich arbitration hearing that hit the web a few years back, both sides had all sorts of TOI stats that weren’t available to the public at that time.
Minnesota had a full-time staffer doing nothing but advanced stats.
San Jose built a proprietary sytem and former GM Mike Smith sells his own advanced stats package to NHL clubs. This article from Forbes magazine is really worth a read.
I’ve also seen agents cite the behind the net stats, one wrote about it in the Hockey News. I’ll try to dig it out.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Oh I’m not saying they don’t use them, I’m just saying the agent himself probably doesn’t do this (he’s too busy with ‘more important’ things) and gets somebody on his staff to do it.
Moustache Fever, not to be confused with swine flu.
I can assure you the agents and the teams are all over this kind of stuff. We’re not saying anything Stajan’s agent doesn’t already know.
by The '67 Sound on Dec 16, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
and if we are...
somebody has a bright future in Sports management!
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
Japers’ Rink put together this mock arbitration for Milan Jurcina and had an agent tell them that it was miles ahead of what they do.
So they get into some stats, probably at least at this level I’d imagine or close to it.
This is PPP's work account until further notice. Damn Internet.
by David Danforth on Dec 16, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
wow
that level of detail is….impressive, in a disturbingly OCD kind of way? :)
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
Amusingly
they compare him to Morrison, Komisarek, and Excelby… before the latter 2 ended up on the leafs :) Anyone spot a pattern about the type of guy Burke is looking for ;)
Ummm please don’t use text spelling.
Also, it was like reading a hall of fame worthy post.
This is PPP's work account until further notice. Damn Internet.
by David Danforth on Dec 16, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
In arbitrations there is an agreement between league and PA on what can be referred to and BTN stats aren’t included. UFA discussions are a whole different ballgame. Agents will rely on traditional stats if they help their player, and non-traditional ones if they do.
by The '67 Sound on Dec 16, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
you guys care enough to do in-depth research and you’re not even getting paid! :P
Is that the kid you want?
Considering Grabovski is a $2.9M cap hit, Stajan can definitely expect more than $3M per based on these stats.
If his agent is any good, that would be my starting point right there.
all that said, one can not deny that Poni also plays a factor in the Stajan’s production. That line of Poni-Stajan-Kessel has been pretty good. Far better than any line Grabovski has been a part of. So, $3.5M isn’t all that far fetched for Stajan. He might try the FA route and see if he gets more, but he could just as easily come out looking like Dominic Moore.
Very interesting…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
I think he could bring somewhere in the neighbourhood of 4.1 or 4.2 in the free agent market, especially if he were signed by a small market team with cap-space and fans who don’t read too much into players (ala what Atlanta did with Antropov).
I also think its nice to hope that Stajan takes a hometown discount, but the way he has been criticized by fans and the rumours about his bitterness towards the leafs might mean otherwise.
Moustache Fever, not to be confused with swine flu.
with the cap projected to shrink, i’m not sure what small market team would want to do that.
I guess the question for Burke and Wilson needs to be “Can we win now, and in the future, with Stajan as a top 6 guy?” Grabbo is only making $2.9M and is on pace for 57 points, 10 less than Stajan. Are those ten points worth $1M+ more?
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
Well some teams need to sign guys to get above the minimum right? Giving Stajan a 3 or 4 hundred grand more might help a team do that while signing a quality player.
Moustache Fever, not to be confused with swine flu.
i've no idea
the three lowest payroll teams are NAS, PHX and NYI.
- NAS has Hamhuis, both goalies and Tootoo that need to be resigned.
- PHX has Lombardi, Mueller, Upshall, Hanzal, Michalek and Lepisto, amongst a few others all expiring at the end of the season
- NYI has Bergenheim, Tambellini, Moulson, Sutton and on and on (12 expiring contracts at the end of the season)
Maybe he could fit in on the Island? Weight’s contract is one of the expiring ones. Could be interesting. Considering he’s a Mississauga boy, playing for his home town team, and seeing what happened to Moore last season, were I him, I’d be more inclined to go with stability, even if it means a few $100k less.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
i had reservations about Grabbo too
when that deal got signed. I don’t mind him as a player. But right away, my thought was “well looks like Grabbo’s the No 2 centre moving forward”
If Stajan is not a No 1 but he’s better than a No 3 checking centre, and we have a No 2 locked up for two more years, where does taht leave him?
Jesus. This debate is going to go on ALL YEAR I can tell
it will
but, I’m glad Pamplemousse did all this work. It does put to rest some pre-conceived notions (mine included.)
As you said, with Grabbo locked up for a few years, where does that put Stajan? That’ll be my question all year long. Can the Leafs win with Stajan as the #1 center? I still see him as an Andy MacDonald/Brendan Morrison type. An above average #2 center, but not quite a convincing #1. Teams can win with that type of player. Just wondering what Burke sees Stajan as…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Burke’s opinion is the one I’d love to know right now. With Naslund and Bertuzzi, he was more than happy to ride Morrison as his #1 center, despite rumblings from the media/fans that they needed a “real” #1 center to go anywhere in the playoffs. Still, I’m uncomfortable with the idea of paying Stajan any more than $3 mill next year.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
and
with Selanne and Kunitz being centered by MacDonald.
If you think about it, Poni = Kunitz, Kessel = Selanne and Stajan = MacDonald…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
yeah… and a young, developing center in the #2 spot who could become #1 with Getzlaf and Henrik Sedin.
I dunno, I’m thinking Burke already made his choice when he signed Grabbo.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Grabbo could probably be transitioned to the wing if they really wanted to keep stajan
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
if he brings Kadri along slowly, like Ryan, then chances are by the time Kadri is given the full time call up, Grabovski’s contract is up.
Ryan was drafted in 2005. He spent 05-06 and 06-07 in the OHL. Split time in 07-08 and 08-09 between the AHL and the NHL before finally getting a full time call up close to the halfway point last season. Almost a full 4 years after being drafted…
Grabbo’s contract runs through the 2011-12 season, so Kadri may get up a year sooner than Ryan, but still not all that quickly.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
yeah but what about Bozak?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
he can play the wing too, plus this year is looking more and more like a lost season, he probably gets a do-over next year
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I’m a little worried about that… I really wanted to see him get some NHL time this year.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
maybe if he steps it up he gets a shot, or like Hanson last year, the Marlies get the boot from the post season and spots open up because of trades on the leafs
having too many prospects and players is a good problem to have though
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, he’s just looking awfully fragile already, which would be unfortunate.
He seems to be getting outplayed badly by Stalberg and Hanson.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
yah, Stalberg and hanson are pretty close to being locks for the team next year if they can keep it up
Bozak isnt so much fragile as unlucky. I wouldnt count H1N1 as an injury problem, especially when he lost 10-15lbs while sick, and then got hurt (not badly) when he was still underweight and recovering
he’ll be fine
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, did you read the article Archimedes linked to on twitter? Or do you still not read twitter?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
no twitter for me
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
oh
it’s an awesome article about the Leaf’s NCAA players
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
good good, i like bozaks dedication
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
no idea.
Maybe Stajan is flipped for picks, Grabovski moves up a line and Bozak plays 2nd?
Grabbo isn’t doing that bad this year. On pace for 57 points. He had 48 last year. He’s also been better in the face off dot this year. 44.5% last season vs 49.3% this year. Stajan is still better than him, but the difference isn’t as drastic anymore. Stajan is at 52.1% this year, up from 51.4% last year.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
I’m more uncomfortable with Grabbo as the 1C than I am with Stajan.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I think Kessel would do much better with some of those sick, yet hard to handle passes Grabbo is always tossing out, same with Kessel to grabbo
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
currently
i am too. However, Grabovski is improving.
he’s also a lot smaller than Stajan. should have mentioned that…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
grabbo can keep up with Kessel though, he also forchecks better and doesnt telegraph his passes near as bad as Stajan does
saying that. I think Stajan is a better play maker, he just does everything at a slower speed
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
As I posted at my site, one of my concerns is that the Leafs might have too many similar players: small, soft, quick.
Is their a power forward any where in waiting or even a forward that could excel in a physical, tight checking, playoff style game?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Hanson seems to be the closest thing we have… and one of the guys we drafted this past year, though I don’t remember which.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
yes, that is correct… thanks!
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think Jimmie Hayes is talked about in similar circles…. dunno how much upside he has though.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
from what I gather about Hayes, he doesnt use his size as much as he should, but has excellent hands and a decent mean streak, but he gets flustered easy when things arnt going well
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Which is why I think Poni has a better chance of being resigned than Stajan. Not exactly a power forward but the closest facsimile we have.
Kulemin and Stalberg both have potential but I don’t think our Brendan Shanahan is anywhere on the horizon.
by The '67 Sound on Dec 16, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
man I loved Brendan Shannahan when he was on Wheaties
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Sadly, Poni may be the closest thing to a power forward on this team.
I think the Leafs can make the jump from crap to competent, but without a serious upgrade in proven talent, it’s going to be really hard to improve from there.
If the Leafs do make the post-season, does anyone think running Stajan and Grabbo as the top two centres is a recipe for success?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
no
and that’s where my issue with Stajan begins.
I see Grabovski as more of a stop gap than a Leaf lifer…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
the Leafs also have Hayes, Ryan and Slaney in the pipe, but they are all at least 1-3 years away
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Diminishing returns
How many of Hayes, Ryan and Slaney will make the Leafs?
Of those, how many will be impact players?
Of those that are impact players, what year do you project them making a contribution?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
yah, that is the problem with pretty much every prospect though. Hayes seems to have stagnated in development and i dont know enough about Ryan or Slaney to make an accurate judgment. I simply ment that the Leafs have some possible power forwards in their future.
I’m still hoping stefanivic has some sort of epifanie and gets ride of his kovalevitis
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Me too.
I think the only way I’d be ok with Stajan staying is if Grabovski is dealt and the Leafs slot Stajan in as their future 2C (and pay him like a 2C).
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Paying him as a second liner would help, should Bozak and Kadri both be ready to make the jump in the near future.
For the record, I don’t see it happening. I really hope Kadri is brought along slowly. Bozak might be ready next year, or late in the season if he gets it going quickly enough.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
I could see Stajan giving a bit of a home town discount, but looking at the numbers, that’s what $3M/year? Maybe $2.75M?
He’d likely ask, as well he should, for additional concessions in return, like a limited ntc or an extra year or two term.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I really can’t see us giving Stajan more than 3 years… it just doesn’t make sense to me, with Grabbo locked up.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
But what is that “no” based on?
Neither guy has really had a sniff of the playoff’s – so you really have no idea what they can do there, do you? For all we know they could step it up even more. That’s not a determination that can be made ahead of it actually happening.
And before anyone says anything about Stajan being benched for the playoff’s in 03/04 he was a 20 year old rookie. Guess what other Leaf was benched in the playoff’s at 20?
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
the "no"
is based on the fact that i don’t see either player carrying a team offense.
sure, i could be wrong. but how often do players become better in the playoffs vs. the regular season? If Stajan’s offense is tied to his wingers, what happens when they dry up?
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
I’m with Blurr on this one.
I don’t think you’d get good odds that Stajan would excel when the games get more physical and the checking gets tighter.
On the other side of the puck, is Stajan the guy you want to run out against the top-lines in a playoff game?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
There’s always suprise playoff success stories like Alyn McCauly or RJ Umberger a few years ago.
Hell, everyone here has a massive boner for Marleau and he’s, by and large, a playoff failure with with a career .67 PPG rate and a -6 rating on a team that is a constant playoff disappointment.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
I’m all about probablities, not surprises.
Looking at Stajan’s career and style of play, I would wager he’s not going to excel in a playoff environment. I could well be very wrong about this, but it’s where I’d lay my chips.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
this
and more to the point, Marleau, although not an absolute “playoff failure” does prove my point. Regular season stats don’t equate to playoff success…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Marleau, the past two seasons, has been money in the playoffs.
Looking at stats in isolation can be extremely misleading, which is how we end up with the Stajan problem.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not looking at anything in isolation.
Patrick Marleau has been anything but “money” in the past two playoffs.
2007-08 – 11 GP, 4 G, 4 A, 0 game winners, -2 rating, 8.9 shooting %.
2008-09 – 6 GP, 2 G, 1A, 0 rating, 2 game winners, 16.7 shooting %
So, he looked okay in a first round exit last year, I guess, and wasn’t that great the year before.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
2 years isn't a career
07-08 was Marleau’s worst year ever statistically speaking. Anything that could go wrong, did.
For his NHL career, he’s 0.71 PPG. Taking two seasons and calling it an absolute view of a player’s career is definitely looking at hings in isolation.
Stajan is a 0.49 PPG player for his NHL career. That said, Marleau was a 2nd overall pick, and given far more opportunities to produce on the offense.
Comparing the two doesn’t make sense.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
For god sakes – we’re talking playoff’s here – not regular season.
Firstly, you and mf37 said he probably wouldn’t be successfull in the playoffs, but as of right now there is no data to prove that point. When the Leafs make the PLAYOFFS!!!1 this year we’ll see what we see.
Secondly, Marleau, whom I’ve noticed has a lot of fans around here, hasn’t been particularly effective in the playoffs in my opinion. Karina argued that he was money the past two years – I disagreed – and posted the above information.
If Stajan, right now is our #1 centre, and Marleau is being touted as a potential replacement, it makes perfect sense to compare the two as best I can – which is difficult as Stajan has three playoff games under his belt.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
How has Stajan played in tight-checking physical games like the ones against Boston?
Not well. In 2 games he has 1 assist (an epehmeral special) and is a -3.
Last season, in games in Boston he was 3GP 0G 2A -3.
That’s playoff hockey and that’s why I’m going with an educated guess that Stajan will not thrive in a post-season environment.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
@mf37 – About all I can say is that last year a 60% of his points came against teams that eventually qualified for the playoffs (9g, 24a, 33 P), and that over the past few seasons it’s seemed like the Bruins have had our number. Other then that you’ve made a strong case.
@blurr – look a couple of posts above, where I said Marleau’s CAREER playoff PPG is .67 and was then told he was “money” the past two years. I then examined the past two years, and stated why I don’t think he’s “money”.
Look, the entire Stajan/Marleau thing I brought up was in response to the “Stajan can’t succeed int he playoff’s” thing you and mf37 are trying to sell.
Seeing as Marleau is whom I’ve seen touted as a potential replacement for Stajan, it’s fair to examine exactly how Marleau has performed in the playoffs – in my mind it hasn’t been that special.
If the Leafs make the playoffs, and Stajan can’t produce better then .67 PPG then we’ll have something to talk about. Until then this is all hypothetical.
Unable to actually speak French since 1980.
by Pamplemousse on Dec 16, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
as i said, Marleau’s regular season and playoff performances are fairly consistent with one another.
I don’t hold the optimism that Stajan is going to go from a career 0.49 PPG player to something above Marleau’s 0.67. Could it happen? Sure. I’m just not willing to bet on it.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
the above info is two seasons, not a career.
I’m excluding playoff performances because Stajan has none. That doesn’t mean he won’t become an incredible playoff performer and out pace Marleau’s 0.67 PPG pace (which, as you’ll note, is only slightly lower than his regular season pace…)
It just means that, if we’re going hypothetical, then your opinion of what he could do is just as valid as mine. Hence, there’s no point in arguing it.
Marleau, as I pointed out, has always had more of an offensive role on his team, and given his draft position, it’s no shock to me that he’s a better PPG performer than Stajan. I don’t see Marleau as being a worse choice than Stajan based on two years of stats, any more than over their entire careers.
Marleau is a proven #1 centerman with the track record to back it up. Stajan does not have the same record. He’s doing fine for right now. Am I willing to bet Jason Blake type money and years that it’ll continue? No…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
He was also comfortable riding Dan Cloutier in net.
This is PPP's work account until further notice. Damn Internet.
by David Danforth on Dec 16, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
oh man please please please don’t remind me
I had night terrors about that and the Toskala situation
although, I think he relies on his coach’s opinion a lot, which really doesn’t help because Wilson seems to love Toskala…….
please hold me
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
wow, good point. All it takes is 1 or 2 guys from inside the hockey world to stumble upon this stuff and the cat could be out of the bag. Doug MacLean already took credit for some barilkosphere work and I wouldn’t be surprised if some agent or capologist started looking at the information that is being put together here and try to pass it off as their own
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly, its a conspiracy… they get people to post information on the interwebs, and since anyone can see it, they steal it and make money. Dirty stinking bastards.
Moustache Fever, not to be confused with swine flu.
For future reference - Daily Faceoff
If you want to know day to day team lines, visit http://www.dailyfaceoff.com/ . It’s a great resource for knowing who’s playing on what line for any team, for any game. These guys really do their homework.
They call me Splodeybones.
Not looking forward to...
Pierre McGuire tonight calling Stajan “Matty” every 30 seconds. Like he’s a 4 year old kid. Fuckin’ drives me nuts.
Go Leafs!!!!!!
"Is there an ih-sue Papa?"
by Another Good Kingston Boy on Dec 16, 2009 11:34 AM EST reply actions
And yet I stll prefer that to how they refer to Chara.
Memo to announcers: As far as I know, Zdeno is not Czech for Big. He’s 6’7", we get it. Stop calling him Big Chara.
Resident Capologist
he’s 6’9
=P
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
wow
that’s not big, that’s a MONSTERRRRR!!!!!!
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
not as tall as my dad though
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
you know who sucks?
Matt Stajan
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions
just cause i like to start shit
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not lookin' for trouble
but if I were, I might start with You know who’s awesome? The Vesa! or Spezza in a Leafs uniform? Wayne Scanlan thinks it could happen!
Toronto is a place many have imagined Spezza going one day.
Now if you wanna start some real shit how ’bout suggesting a Stajan for Spezza trade?
Please don’t flex your pythons at me. I’m gonna back to my hiding place now…
by general borschevsky on Dec 16, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Hahaha, I’d do that in a heartbeat, despite it helping the Sens with their cap issues.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
Spezza has a $7M cap hit to 2014. Short of Spezza officially signing his retirement papers on the day of the trade, I can’t imagine what it would take to convince me that a Spezza deal could be a good deal for the Leafs.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I had a crush on him when he was playing for the Battallion.
He has the talent to be 100 point player without a winger like Heatley, I think, I just have no idea why he’s still moping this season.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
because he has to work harder for his points and got used to the easy ride that was having a potent sniper to pass to.
also the defensive system of clouston is stifling him a bit
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
his attitude does frustrate me, he really has top class talent
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
as long as he is a sen, i find his attitude delightful, much like kovalev
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
If Burke agrees to take on Spezza’s $7 million contract I might go postal at MLSE. Spezza’s a very good player and (current performance notwithstanding) an obvious upgrade on Stajan but you can’t pay a guy $7MM unless he’s a perennial Hart/Art Ross candidate. Spezza’s contract is the forward equivalent of Campbell’s. Very good players but flawed, and the contracts are albatrosses. Not Gomez/Redden level albatrosses, but pretty bad nonetheless.
by The '67 Sound on Dec 16, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Spezza needs a pure sniper to be effective
cough Kessel cough
If Blake weren’t sticking around for a few more years at $4M per, I could stomach paying giggles $7M per…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
I hate Spezza
One of my least favourite players. If you think Leaf fans were hard on Larry Murphy and Bryan McCabe, that’s nothing compared to how they’d treat Spezza and his sloppy, half-hearted, pillow-soft style.
This season:
Spezza 5G 14A 19P -5, 5PPG 1GWG.
Stajan 11G 15A 26P +2, 5PPG 2GWG
Notice that all 5 of Spezza’s goals have come on the powerplay. 30 games into the season and NOT ONE EVEN STRENGTH goal for Spezza.
Two different ships going in two different directions. Spezza had a lot of raw talent but his work ethic has let it all go to shit and now he sucks. Stajan works hard and is seemingly getting better week after week.
Add to that, Stajan probably has one of the best contracts in the league right now and probably will sign with Toronto at a reasonable price while Spezza had one of the worst contracts in the league.
by general borschevsky on Dec 16, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yes...
A fellow Spezza-loather.
This guy makes me puke and if the Leafs made a trade for him I would find it difficult to cheer for him.
Too many slow backchecks, blind passes and smug, self-assured looks at the camera for my liking.
If the Leafs ever pay one cent of his grossly outrageous salary I will boycott all Leafs merchandise for at least… one day!! You hear me MLSE??
Why do we do this to ourselves?
Ron Wilson and Brian Burke
are not Bryan Murray, and whoever they put behind the bench when the players tire of the last guy.
I’m certainly not saying i’d want it to happen. It’s just that, Stajan’s sudden ascension into “top 6” categories nicely dovetails with the arrival of Wilson and his coaching staff…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Stajan probably has one of the best contracts in the league right now
Better enjoy it for the next 100 days (or less) ’cause Stajan is perfectly positioned for a huge raise.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
He won’t get anywhere near 7 million.
I’m sure he’ll take the Mississauga-discount.
by general borschevsky on Dec 16, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Anything north of $3M is too much for the Leafs IMHO and I could see him pulling in $4M.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
he also might opt to go for term over dollars, a savard like deal even (though not as lucrative)
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
holy shit, the leafs should do exactly that. Say, sign him to a 6 year deal, give him the 4.5 or whatever he wants in the first 3 years, drop it to 3 mil the 4th year and then have the next 2 seasons as under a mil. Stajan could either then be traded easily or bought out.
flaws?
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Stajan is only 25, you think he’ll be out of the NHL at 31?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
no… but it doesnt mean he has to stay for the duration of that contract, Stajan still gets the money he wants and the leafs get a cap hit thats comfortable for them. If after 3 or 4 years the leafs want to move him, they can with ease because the team wouldnt have to take on alot of salary, just deal with the cap hit.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
No, but if he’s underperforming his cap hit by that time (a fair likelihood) or if we have a better replacement he’d be awfully tempting to a minimum payroll team that wanted to stay above the salary floor: he’d only cost them $1MM but would count for over $3MM.
I think it would take more than $18MM over 6 years but I think the Savard type deal (I know, his is only the most recent) is the wave of the future for teams with the resources to effectively circumvent the cap.
Hell, I wish we could offer him $15MM for year 1 and $1MM for the next five. I don’t think Burkie has that much leeway with MLSE.
I’m still not convinced re-signing him is the right move but if we do I think this is the way to structure it.
by The '67 Sound on Dec 16, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
how often have these types of trades occurred since the inception of the cap?
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Dec 16, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
trading a play with a lower salary than his cap hit?
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
thats what im leaning towards as well, if stajan and leafs both want to agree to a deal and stajan wants his money, but the leafs want to keep the cap hit down, this is the only way I can see to do that
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
If I was Stajan’s agent, I wouldn’t let him do that.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
youre probably right, that type of contract is usually for players who are likley to retire at the end of it
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
flaw
to name but one, from Stajan’s side, is that in that deal, he’s a 30 year old scoring forward, still likely in his prime, earning $1 million a year.
Going long-term with players in their 20s now means 8,9,10+ year deals. You tack on the extra money on the end as a bonus.
Also, I don’t want to pay Matt Stajan $4.5 million, but that’s my own issue
oops
Correction: Spezza has 4 powerplay goals, and so he has ONE GOAL AT EVEN STRENGTH so far this season.
by general borschevsky on Dec 16, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
booooooo, i liked it the other way
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Ya, me too. But ONE GOAL AT EVEN STRENGTH for 7 MILLION DOLLARS is still terrible. Even Jason Blake has 4 now and Stempniak has 6!
by general borschevsky on Dec 16, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
and together they are still cheaper than spezza
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Man, and to think that only about 3 years ago Spezza and Heatley were both between 90-100+ points. Heatley has left Jason in his dust
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
thing is, I’m pretty sure Spezza has more talent in his body than Stajan and Blake combined. His attitude is the problem, and hanging around with Kovalev isn’t going to help that.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
I had the misfortune of reading that article. Spezza is so pillow soft he makes Stajan look truculent and is having an awful year. He looks lost without Heatley and he hasn’t clicked at all with Alfie and Michalek.
Spezza? DO NOT WANT!
leaf fan stuck in ottawa, a localized black hole that will suck everything in that area to oblivion.
Imagine...
…if Stajan, Toskala and Kaberle maintain their current level of play from now until the deadline…
Burke would have quite the dilemma on his hands. A good one, but a dilemma nonetheless.
Forego the chance to cash the chips in at (arguably) peak value? Or keep them for the playoff run/push and overpay/lose them in the offseason.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
trade all of them for as much as you can get
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
most of them arnt part of the long term plans
in 2-4 years will they still be as useful as they are now?
Puns, Innuendo and Bad Spelling, Yes We Got That
by JaredFromLondon on Dec 16, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
this is absolutely the plan
I suspect Burke already knows who he wants to keep and resign, and is just figuring out what he’s willing to pay, or conversely, how much its going to cost him.
Anyone not in his long term plans is getting pumped and dumped. There will be no “hey, maybe i was wrong about this Stajan kid” in March, when he suddenly decides to go for it.
If he can get an asset in return for something not in his plans, he will. See Tlusty, Jiri.
i bet if burke were to read all the comments on here he would be yelling at his computer "I already know that! Dont worry I will! "
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Dec 16, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
If he was reading this site we’d probably already be dead.
This is PPP's work account until further notice. Damn Internet.
by David Danforth on Dec 16, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
“Hey, Colton. Yeah, you. Here’s a list of names. You know what to do.”
-Graham-
by CanadianMaple09 on Dec 16, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
He’d hire me on his staff.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Dec 16, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
I give big odds that Kaberle isn’t going anywhere this season.
Also, I doubt he will go anywhere in the offseason, except if we miss the playoffs – and even then he may not go depending on where we are as far as a puck moving D-man
"If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Dec 16, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Yup.
Of the three I see Kaberle being the guy Burke keeps around. He’s 31 but puck-moving point-producing D-men who don’t get their noses too dirty tend to have a fair bit of longevity in the league.
Examples include Lidstrom, Niedermeyer, Leetch, Orr, Bourque and Coffey.
If Stajan and Toskala keep this up BB could land himself some nice shiny things at the deadline.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
Orr got his nose very dirty. He wasn’t just the best defenseman in the league, he was plenty tough and could fight. That’s why Cherry loves him so much.
by The '67 Sound on Dec 17, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
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