Groundhog Day: Leafs 4 at Panthers 5
Tavares is so excited he can barely keep his pants on
I'm tired of writing the same recap about the Leafs starting off great and blowing it. I've decided to make a template for future OT losses that started out as 4-1 leads, if only to invoke the corollary to Murphy's Law, which you can all refer to as "PPP's Law". Allow me to explain. In common usage Murphy's Law says that "whatever can go wrong will go wrong". PPP's Law is the opposite, if you're prepared for the worst it will still happen. Did you just buy a snowblower? Enjoy a winter where it never rises above 0 degrees! Hopefully by creating this template and invoking my own law, we can hasten similar mishaps in the future.
The <team who scored first> opened up their scoring at <time of first goal> with a <adjective describing first goal> goal from <adverb describing quality of goal scorer's recent player> <verb> <first goal scorer>. The <team, probably Toronto> rode out to a <score that the team blew> lead in the <period of lead>.
That's actually kind of tiring and had the added benefit of being boring. Hmm. I'm going to start over. Spurred on by Nik Hagman once again terrorising his former team the Leafs built a 3-1 lead heading into the third period. They call a two goal lead the most dangerous lead in hockey. "They" are pretty dumb because it's clearly the one goal lead. However, the Leafs have found a truly dangerous lead: the three goal lead.
It's a rare animal in these parts but vicious nonetheless. It's small enough to be overcome but large enough to force the hunter to need extra time to slay it.
I also liked that instead of former Leafs always burying Toronto, our players have been burying their former teams of late. Blake had that great game against the Islanders, Finger scored on Raycroft, and ex-Panther Nik Hagman scored two more against Florida. Success!
As usual though the third period was a complete trainwreck. After Antropov seemingly sealed the deal with his fourth goal in six games the wheels came off. The Panthers scored on the next shift off a ridiculous carom off the end boards and with almost 12 minutes left you knew where this one was going. Sadly the Panthers couldn't quite seal it. The Leafs did continue to give the Panthers more gifts. In their first meeting they gave Vokoun his 200th win, in their last they gave McCabe the game winner, and last night they let Richard "OH GOD MY NECK!" Zednik score the overtime winner. That kind of good karma will hopefully make the lottery go our way.
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I dunno
I just spent the last 20 minutes reading about prospects, and I may start jumping on the “Draft a D-man” train…
But yes, we have to expect those kinds of collapses, I suppose. Still. I couldn’t believe the bit of the 3rd period where Florida really started coming back. It still hurts.
by Karina on Feb 11, 2009 12:07 PM EST reply actions
Which is partly the reason why I’m not on Tank for Tavares watch as intently as some (but I’ll never admit out loud). I find it more appealing to me to draft Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson without moving up in the draft (assuming the Leafs pick third or fourth), and drafting a d-man in the mid-first round (10-15). Cowan might be a pipe dream (especially if the ACL injury doesn’t seem to be recovering well), but there is a Russian defenseman who is really rising in the draft. Don’t know his status, which should scare many teams, but the Leafs do need to draft a defenseman. Not Ellis though – unless he falls in the lower teens.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
I’d love Tavares. I would run out and buy a Tavares jersey if we got him. But at the same time… we need to build a solid defensive core, and Schenn is the only one we currently have that I see sticking through until this team gets competative.
I wouldn’t mind trading for some other team’s prospects – like Blum from Nashville. They need scoring help, we need defensive depth and they’re set for years back there.
Paajarvi-Svensson or Kane would be A-OK with me, if that’s the best prospect in the draft. But a big, stud defenseman to go with Schenn would be what I covet most at this point.
by Karina on Feb 11, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
I just don’t think Toronto is so epically bad that they’ll be in position to draft either Tavares or Hedman. And I worry sometimes that people will deem this team as a failure, as if those two guys are cure-alls. I’m not denying they’re not legit prospects nor will I sit here and say I won’t do a major jig, down copious amounts of alcohol, and do fist pumps all day if the Leafs drafted Tavares (or Hedman), but a team isn’t built on just one draft or even one player. If Cowan wasn’t injured, he would be automatic for me. But this draft is deep with forwards and drafting a defenseman simply because they need it would be a mistake in my mind.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
Better option would be the best of both world. At least one or two of Kaberle, Kubina, and Antropov will likely be out the door by draft day. At least one of them SHOULD garner a first-rounder – if Burke is smart, he’ll demand it, and if he’s doubly smart, he’ll try to deal to a club that is going to make a playoff push, but ultimately fail – securing a slightly higher first rounder. Use that first-rounder to pull a scoring forward (Brayden Schenn possibly, if he’s available, could be a sound pick, and fits with Burkes “siblings” strategy).
by Blue and White Expat on Feb 11, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for joining.
I think Kaberle could get us a first because he’s got time left on his contract for cheap, I’m not convinced teams would pony up a first for Kubina or Antropov. Dominic Moore might get us a first because of his low salary and scoring touch.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Welcome
Thanks for joining.
Good thoughts. I agree that Kaberle is likely the only one to draw a first unless Antro both heats up and agrees to an extension before the deal.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
russian guy
I don’t know if we are talking about the same guy, but Dimitri Kulikov in Durummondville is quite a stud in the mean-nasty-like-the-guy vs. Rocky russian way. He has the ability to get the puck to net on the power play. 45 games, 8 goals, 42 assists. The last time i saw his name he was picked to go 13-15 in the draft
by blue with age on Feb 11, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
That’s probably the guy. I always thought there was another, but I think I’m confusing Kulikov with another guy next year. Maybe Petrov.
Or maybe Alex Mogilny.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
Dmitri Orlov...?
Ranked 10th for the European prospects.
"We’re looking forward to building the type of team the Rangers are able to buy."
The Left Coast Lock
by blurr1974 on Feb 11, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Unless he has already, Molgilny needs to reproduce with a small female weightlifter (stong hips) so we get a strong like bull, smart like streetcar scoring sensation who can never be moved off the puck
by blue with age on Feb 11, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Best player available
That said, I’d rather have a forward. I’m pretty sure the bust rate for defencemen in the top ten is much higher than the forwards (I should look at this for a Cox Bloc post, if anyone is interested). My theory would be because d take longer to develop, they are harder to project on draft day.
Anyways, I would also just like a forward because it’s more fun. I don’t think the team is bad enough to get JT – I’d be very happy with Matt Duchene at this point.
A draft day bust article is always welcome!
I’d agree with you about Ds having a higher bust rate, but in my mind the most spectacular flame-outs have been forwards. Perhaps it is because they show up fully formed so when they can’t produce at the nhl level it is a “tragedy”. The D-men who don’t develop as projected just sort of fade into the background, forgotten.
by LeafFanInVan on Feb 11, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
agreed...
some top 10 D picks of previous drafts…
Nik Boynton – 9th in 97
Brad Stuart – 3rd in 98
Branislav Mezei – 10th in 99
Rostislav Klesla – 3rd in 00
and on and on. Not exactly top 2 defenders by name, but all serviceable top 6 guys…
"We’re looking forward to building the type of team the Rangers are able to buy."
The Left Coast Lock
by blurr1974 on Feb 11, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
wikipedia says
1995
"We’re looking forward to building the type of team the Rangers are able to buy."
The Left Coast Lock
by blurr1974 on Feb 11, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
I think wiki is right, thats what I was thinking. Also I think that year or year before Leafs picked Jeff Ware.
Disappointed since 1984
Worse than Jeff Farkas?
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
jeff farkas...
he had such promise in NHL97…
/sigh
"We’re looking forward to building the type of team the Rangers are able to buy."
The Left Coast Lock
by blurr1974 on Feb 11, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
WAIT you actually saw him play? I have no recollection ever suiting up for the Leafs.
He was worse than Woz? Chris McCallister?
Disappointed since 1984
IMO, yes
Even Woz didn’t look as completely mystifed by speed and positioning at the NHL level. EVEN WOZ. Think that over.
I think he was partly drafted in the 1st as a favour to his family. And you wonder why we haven’t won a cup…
I don’t remember seeing Jeff Farkas, alas. Chris McAllister could not skate. At all. I saw him as more of a project/goon and so yeah, Ware was worse.
My image of McAllister was that one breakaway he had in the playoffs against the Flyers. Clear break from the blue line in, and he got caught.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
Jeff Ware
Ended up working at a bank. Given that he played in Oshawa, expect Scotia Capital to collapse in a massive embezzlement scandal any day now.
http://www.athleteventures.com/Resources/Profiles/JeffWare.html
I take back Jeff Farkas because he was drafted in the third round and not as a high first rounder, after a simple google search.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
I don’t think we had a 1 or 2 that year, did we? However, the topic was ‘worst Leaf player you’ve ever seen’, so he still fits.
I believe you are correct. Jeff Ware was probably our last first rounder for a few years, if I can recall correctly. I’m not sure where Brandon Convery fits into this in terms of draft wise. I want to say he was our lone draft pick after a few non-first round years, but I’m probably wrong.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
Jeff Ware had a good run with the Leafs for a few weeks and then he suffered a leg injury (against Chicago I think).
He was never going to be a world beater, but he never recovered from that injury.
This seems to be a pattern with the Leafs – promising D brought down by injuries (Nylund, Ware, Berehowsky…)
Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...
If by good run you mean ‘running around in your own zone looking like a child abandoned in a busy shopping mall’, then yeah, he had a good run…
I think your Petes vs. Generals bias is showing.
For about a month, Ware looked like he might actually know how to play the game….
Val James, Paul Higgins or Carl Brewer mk II would get my nod for worst player to pull on a Leaf jersey.
Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...
MOI!!!
Details on the above three please… I’ve heard a bit about Brewer’s second stint, but all three were before I started watching.
I don’t know the backstory, but I think Brewer needed to play a small number of games in order to qualify for the next tier of his NHLPA pension. This would have been in the very late 70s.
I have no idea who gave him the go-ahead to suit up for the Leafs. Must have been Ballard.
Dude was over 40 years old when he tried his comeback. This was a time when off-season work outs meant lifting beer and huffing export As.
He was old and bald and he wore a toque on the ice during warm-ups (I swear this is true, even though I was likely seven or eight when it happened).
I think he hit the 20 game mark and hung up the skates for good. It was an embarassing experiment. Just one more terrible point in Leaf history.
Jackie Earle Haley would be perfectly cast when CBC makes this into a movie of the week.
Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...
Cool
We have a copule other short posts done and ready to go up, but I’ll start the research if you guys are interested.
If you wait a few days, I’ll have my draft analysis spreadsheet posted and it’ll make your job pretty easy…
You could also claim that defensemen can do other things to extend their pro career. Case in point, Luke Richardson. High draft pick who didn’t turn into a star scouts thought he would and the Leafs unfortunately were one of those teams. However, he parlayed his slow skating and limited offensive potential into a long and productive career as a solid defensive defenseman.
Forwards, on the other hand, are either drafted for the purposes of being a gamebreaker or checking forward. The in-betweens are the happy mediums from both ranges. Usually they don’t have as long careers because they’re easily replaced with other similar flameouts.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
There’s a fascinating study on how high NBA draft picks are given way more rope/chances than low draft picks with similar stats. Sunk costs in the NBA
I’d love to see someone take a bite at this at the NHL level.
Freakonomics looked at a regression analysis of recent NBA drafts, wonder if there’s an equivalent that could be developed for all of the NHL feeder leagues? http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/01/can-a-draft-regression-outpredict-nba-experts/
Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...
I’m pretty sure the bust rate for defencemen in the top ten is much higher than the forwards (I should look at this for a Cox Bloc post, if anyone is interested). My theory would be because d take longer to develop, they are harder to project on draft day.
I would be curious about this as well. I have my doubts, but if this would make a very interesting post. I’m just not sure how you would quantify a bust or what the criteria you would set out, but never mind that here.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
I think my criteria will be a ‘hit’ is to get a first-line forward or top pairing defencemen. A bust is to get someone who never gets past 3-4 line or 5-6 D. There’s some gray area there, but I think that’s a good rough criteria.
And I may keep it to top 7 picks, as that’s where we are likely to draft this year, and most drafts aren’t considered ten deep, I don’t think.
I like those parameters. And I think by default you have to keep it within at max top 10. Otherwise, the element of luck equalizes much closer to scouting acumen and likely exceeds it as you go further down the draft.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
all this draft talk...
makes me think i’m going to have to unleash my “draft database and anlaysis machine” soon…
If it argues that Eric Fichaud was a great pick, I think I’m done as a Leafs fan.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell

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