Being Brian Burke - The 2009-10 Maple Leafs

This is a hell of a post.

very nice,
Wrap may punch out your blood for spelling Cowen wrong tho

Brilliant, brilliant post.

Very nicely done. I don’t like Stempniak and Hanson on the fourth line, but can’t say where they’d go instead, unless you swap your wingers on the third and fourth lines.

What did we get for trading Pony? :)

but I don’t think Burke signed Bozak to a potential $4M deal just so he could play in the AHL.

Guaranteed he starts as a top 6 forward.

I like how you balance the offense and defense by making your top forward lines all about speed and transition play while backing then up with good, hard shut down defense. And then swap that with your shut down forward line, and your quick puck moving defense.

Also I think you’re right on about having Bozak and a potential Cowen in the starting lineup come fall.

I like that you’ve rid us of Ponikarovsky, and it might very well be necessary for the sake of cap space. That being said, I think he’d fetch a higher price if we ditched him at the trade deadline. Either way, I think he’s gone this year. He and/or Stajan.

And I’m flattered that you guys put this right on the front page.

Re: Bozak. I had the same problem as Jared… I have no idea what this kid plays like, so it was difficult to project him into the line-up. i did believe that given the contract he was signed to, he’ll get chances, but then there was the question of his knee. So, I stuck him on the roster as the 13th forward at least to start.

I really don’t look at Hanson & Stempniak as the fourth-line wingers, because quite frankly I don’t think we have a fourth line. We have two forward lines whose responsibility is to score, and we have two third lines who serve different purposes. One consideration is that this team only has 5 forwards who have 5 years of NHL experience or more. (Hagman, Blake, Mayers, Stajan, Grier). To ask Hanson and Stempniak to play a defensive role against the elite talent of the NHL so young in their careers is too much to ask. Plus, Grier and Stajan are simply better suited to that role.

I think much like last year, this would be an exciting team to watch. I think once again we’d be among the youngest teams in the league, and we’ll skate some other teams into the ground, and win a number of games that way. But the talent level is slightly elevated such that if a superior team did decide to show up, we wouldn’t be as badly outclassed as we sometimes were last season. This team’s success will largely hinge on goaltending. If it’s bad, we’re looking at a repeat of last year. If Toskala improves and/or the Monster is for real, I really think the playoffs would be a possibility.

Am I seriously reading this stuff right?

We keep Stajan, but trade the Poni? Poni’s freaking ill. What does he have to do to be appreciated around here?

And if the Leafs draft Cowen, why is he penciled into the NHL lineup? What happened to some good old minor league tutelage? Considering Cowen is coming off a devastating knee injury, I can’t fathom very many circumstances that finds him in the NHL on opening night.

He had 45 points in 71 games 3 years ago, 35 points in 66 games 2 years ago, and 61 points in 82 games last season. That means he AVERAGES 0.64 points per game over the past three seasons. Over an 82 game schedule that’s 52 points… and that’s assuming he drops again after he produced at a .74 ppg pace for all of last year over 82 games. I really don’t get this NON-logic we’re using here folks.

and suddenly he’s the defensive forward of the future? Next we’ll be suggesting he’s the next Captain of the Leafs. Oh wait… we already did that didn’t “we” (Damien?).

Stajan averages 0.53 points per game over the past three seasons, and ALL of his production was tied to playing with the Leafs top 2 veteran forwards… after a year when he produced NOTHING with two other veteran forwards (Blake and Tucker)… oh and his D evaporated playing with those last two…

But yeah… he’s really “good” defensively. Why should we hold on to him again?

Because we traded away our best defensive forward to get Lee Stempniak… and had to throw in our best future top 4 D prospect in the process.

How senile is Cliff Fletcher again?

It’s the last day of school and I don’t have to teach urchins anymore… sorry.

Quality of Teammates:

Stajan: + 0.11
Ponikarovsky: -0.01

BehindTheNet Rating:

Stajan: 0.48
Ponikarovsky: 1.05
Hagman: 0.09

Corsi Rating:

Ponikarovsky: 10.0
Stajan: 1.5
Grabovski: 4.0
Blake: 7.8

Ponikarovsky had the best Corsi rating of any player on the Leafs last year. He had the 51st best Corsi Rating amongst NHL forwards that played in at least 60 games last year.

“Jonas Gustavsson, 2.975M, expires 2012: I firmly believe Burke will land the Monster. However, after the Frogren fiasco, I have no idea how his contract is supposed to be handled. To be safe, we’ll give him a 3-year contract at the rookie max.”

According to Gustavsson’s agent the contract can only be one year at the rookie max because of his age.

I just planned on doing it on my own site.

But yeah, there’s enough money to bring in the Sedins if you deal Kaberle and Kubina, and don’t bother to resign Grabovski.

So looking at cap hits, here’s where I’m going to end up:

Sedins (combined $11.5 million)
Hagman ($3 million)

Ponikarovsky ($2.105 million)
Tlusty ($0.855 million)
Kulemin ($1.4875 million)

Mitchell ($0.4875 million)
Stajan ($1.75 million)
Stempniak ($2.5 million)

Blake ($4 million)
Bozak ($4 million with bonuses)
Either Stålberg or Hanson ($0.875 million)

That’s your forward corps for $32.56 million. The D:

Finger ($3.5 million)
Schenn ($2.975 million)
Van Ryn ($2.9 million)
White ($0.85 million)
Stralman ($0.731667 million)
Frogren ($1.065 million)

That’s only $12.02 million on D.

Goalies:

Toskala ($4 million)
Gustavsson ($2.975 million)

That’s $6.975 million

Buyouts: ($1.733 million)

Total it up? That’s $53.288 million, so we’re still $3 million under the cap, and I buried Mayers in the AHL. I don’t honestly think Stempniak should stick with the team long term, and we’ll see if they sign a player like Grier or Laperriere. I would be in favour of it, and dropping Stempniak and Stajan. We need more GRINDERS and less half assed checking forwards who can produce 30 points.

my oft repeated refrain that the Leafs don’t have enough real 3rd or 4th liners, so much as a lot of average to bad 2nd liners.

Mitchell, Stajan, and Stempniak was my 4th line.

Blake, Bozak, and Hanson/Stålberg was my all US College 2nd/3rd line while the Tlusty, Ponikarovsky/Kulemin line was my all Euro 2nd/3rd line.

If you roll all 4 though the team skates the bejeezus out of their opponent and by the 3rd period they’re so tired you don’t need a 4th line because you’re popping by your opponent and scoring at will…

I would in my dreams like them to re-sign Grabovski and dump the Stempniak and Blake contracts… but that’s pie in the sky thinking. There’s a reason it won’t happen, and it has a lot more to do with Blake and Stempniak than it does Grabovski.

I’d say his ceiling is 30-35 goals with another 25-30 assists. He has the speed and shot, just not the creativity to pick up over 60 points.

I actually think in 4 or 5 years he could be very similar to Hagman with a bit more of a scoring punch.

Kubina fit the bill perfectly in my eyes (I may do an extended analysis of this in another fanpost), so we’ll send him to Washington for a 2010 1st round pick.

That’s interesting because I had the same thought. The Capitals need a veteran defenceman that can actually play defence in their top four. It’s far too soft or crappy.

MSP with the 7th pick and Taylor Dohrety later in the 1st round.

I figure Kaberle and Kubina together will fetch a 1st and 2nd rounder and a prospect or two. I’d also like to see the Leafs try to open the floodgates on some competition within the team.

Having 3 or 4 players fighting over the same spot in the lineup is conducive to a solid atmosphere within the organization. Not so much a what have you done for me lately atmosphere as a prove yourself before you’re given some sort of immunity. For younger players working to develop mental toughness I think it’s an excellent way to simulate pressure situations that they won’t experience otherwise.

As for the difficulty with trading Kaberle or Kubina, I do realize Burke wants to keep Kaberle, but I just think it’s the easiest way to free up cap space for free agents in a year or two. Kaberle might be the best bargain the Leafs have, but he’s also the most marketable for exactly that reason. He also doesn’t particularly do much for the Leafs defensively at this stage of the game, and his leadership leaves something to be desired.

Unless the Leafs can move one of Blake or Stempniak, I don’t see how holding on to either Kaberle or Kubina makes sense.

In response to the Kubina to the Caps idea – I don’t know that it makes much sense from a Salary Cap perspective.

The Washington Capitals have committed $44,605,963 in cap dollars at this point. If all they do is deal a 1st rounder for Kubina, then they’re sitting at $49,605,963 and they still have to sign 4 forwards and 2 more D. I just don’t see it happening. Plus it implies they’ll walk on all 4 of their RFA defensemen… unlikely unless we take a contract back in return.