Leafs' 2004 Entry Draft Evaluation
Dear God. Do you want to know why people suggest that the Leafs' scouts are absolute garbage? This draft is exhibit # 1. Sure, they didn't have any picks in the first two rounds (the price of trying to win in your window) but they sure didn't cover themselves in glory once they did get any picks.
16 NHL games have come out of this crop. Other highlights include drafting a 24 year old in the 4th round (that's what the 9th round is for idiots) and a bunch of losers that don't even qualify as never-weres.
almost 3 years ago
PPP
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For some reason the only response I can muster is; “oh for the fuck of shit…”
(843): the red head has a bf
(1-843): just because there's a goalie doesn't mean u can't score
by Wrap Around Curl on Jun 3, 2009 12:48 AM EDT reply actions
Knowing the Leafs though they would have drafted who the Rangers did in that first round : Lauri Korpikoski
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
Lukas Kaspar and Kris Chucko are other players the Leafs may have picked. I tend to believe that even if we got the picks JFJ would have screwed it up.
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
The player by player reviews are great, but the article needs a bit more context.
In 2003 and ’04 the Leafs were a 100 point franchise with an aging core and a rapidly closing window for success.
A second rounder for defensive depth in Wesley wasn’t that bad of a deal (think of some of the other deals at the 2003 trade deadline: Dan McGillis for a 2nd; Mathieu Schneider for Avery a 1st and 2nd; Ference for a 2nd and Hordichuk; etc.)
I’m less keen on the Leetch trade, it seemed a lot to give up at the time, but I’ll give the Leafs credit for rolling the dice and trying to make a run back when it mattered.
Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...
Also keep in mind that while we had to empty the prospect cupboard for Leetch, not a one of them became any sort of player.
Kondratiev? Imonen? And I can’t remember who the Rangers took with the picks we gave them, but Lord knows if they had have turned into anybody decent Damien Cox would have written about them by now.
See my post.
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
Yeah
The trades giving up those first two picks were big.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Jun 3, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Goes to show
Quinn holds some of the blame when it comes to our current plight. Not all of these picks were ones JFJ traded away…
"Ninety percent of the game is half mental."
The Left Coast Lock
by blurr1974 on Jun 3, 2009 1:04 AM EDT reply actions
Quinn made the 2003 deals (Wesley, Housley (ugh), Nolan) but JFJ swung the Leetch deal.
Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...
got to love the language used in that article
it’s great that Mr. McDonald has managed to skew “trying to win in the playoffs” into “securing post-season home game profits.” Yes, team ownership makes money when their team wins, which is the incentive to trade players, sign players, draft players, and own a hockey team in general.
Just because the Leafs didn’t go all the way doesn’t mean that they intentionally finished short of a cup, or that management never had a championship in mind when they made those deals. I’m tired of all this nonsensical “OTPP only wants money so they sabotage their team by being near the top in league spending for almost a decade” stuff.
Good article otherwise though, HF is always good for a cry.
It’s definitely loaded language but a 24 year old?!?
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Jun 3, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I never said they weren't idiots
in fact, that reinforces my conception that MLSE and the people they hired back then were too stupid for any kind of monetary conspiracy.
This is the difference between winners and losers
Giving up the 1st/2nd rounders is only part of the issue …
You have to hit 1 late round pick a year in order to be successful. The Wings show how it’s done..
This draft is just dreadful. The Leafs have been pretty good in the past getting a guy like Kaberle late in the draft.
The Red Wings haven’t really been successful in the first round at all. In fact with their much ballyhooed picks of Datsyuk (171st in 98), Zetterberg (210th in 99) and even Franzen (97th in 04) they picked several players before them.
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
Also another problem with the Wings is that in the last 11 years they have traded away more draft picks than any other team.
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
I’ve been arguing with the author of the article a little bit over at hfboards. I don’t agree with his criticism of the Leetch deal.
Basically, the two issues I have are:
- He has a fact wrong. The pick the Leafs dealt ended up being #24, so Zajac, Wolski and Meszaros were already gone. The Rangers traded up to #19, which is where the confusion comes in. He argues that the Leafs could have traded up too, which is true but seems like a stretch.
- Bigger issue, I think the 2004 Leafs were the best Toronto team I’ve ever seen, were very legitimate Cup contenders, and had a veteran roster with a window that was closing very quickly. It was absolutely the right time to swing for the fences with a guy like Leetch.
I hate JFJ and Peddie as much as (and probably more than) anyone. But I don’t think you can call the Leetch trade a typical short-term cash grab. It was a good gamble to take at the time, even if we know in hindsight that it didn’t work.
Down Goes Brown - Unapologetically nostalgic for the past. Brutally realistic about the present. Grudgingly optimistic about the future.
by Down Goes Brown on Jun 3, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions
Everybody forgets about that team because of the subsequent lockout and the early exit at the hands of the Flyers but it was a great team that had Roenick not scored in OT could have been a lot more memorable.
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
- Bigger issue, I think the 2004 Leafs were the best Toronto team I’ve ever seen, were very legitimate Cup contenders, and had a veteran roster with a window that was closing very quickly. It was absolutely the right time to swing for the fences with a guy like Leetch.
That’s part of what kills me about the Nolan trade. At the time it made all of the sense in the world. The Leafs needed to kill the Flyers and fight through the Devils’ trap to win the East. People forget just how freaking awesome Nolan was since his career has petered out.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Sure. But even in Nolan’s case, they gave up a ton. Not in hindsight, but at the time you looked at it and went “wow, this better work, we just sold the farm”.
For Leetch, they didn’t really give up that much. A late first in a bad draft. A second. And two marginal prospects. That’s still a lot for a guy who ended up playing 30 games, but it’s not blowing your brains out.
As an aside, I find it interesting that folks over at hfboards who point out that the Rangers used our first rounder on a guy who went nowhere, and are getting show down by people saying “well, the Leafs wouldn’t have picked that guy”. Oh, so now we can do that? Now we’ve figured out that the Leafs won’t always pick the same guy the other team does? So Roberto Luongo is OK now?
Down Goes Brown - Unapologetically nostalgic for the past. Brutally realistic about the present. Grudgingly optimistic about the future.
by Down Goes Brown on Jun 3, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you have a link to this discussion?
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
Down Goes Brown - Unapologetically nostalgic for the past. Brutally realistic about the present. Grudgingly optimistic about the future.
by Down Goes Brown on Jun 3, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Was Boyes really that highly touted when he was moved?
McCauley had not followed up his amazing playoffs with a season to match and who did the first end up being?
I think the Leetch trade looks better because everyone tanked while Boyes can score a lot of regular season goals.
As an aside, I find it interesting that folks over at hfboards who point out that the Rangers used our first rounder on a guy who went nowhere, and are getting show down by people saying "well, the Leafs wouldn’t have picked that guy". Oh, so now we can do that? Now we’ve figured out that the Leafs won’t always pick the same guy the other team does? So Roberto Luongo is OK now?
Shifting goalposts/sands are the # 1 tool of the Anti-Leafs.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
My memory is that Boyes was well-regarded, as a former first rounder. He wasn’t considered a blue-chip slam dunk prospect, but he was the best one the Leafs had.
McCauley was still riding the wave from the playoffs a bit, and plus you had all the “great leader”, “future captain” stuff.
The pick ended up being #16, and the Sharks took Steve Bernier. If you want to assume the Leafs would have drafted the best possible player, Zach Parise went with the next pick, and Getzlaf went two picks after that.
Down Goes Brown - Unapologetically nostalgic for the past. Brutally realistic about the present. Grudgingly optimistic about the future.
by Down Goes Brown on Jun 3, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i don’t think that’s right… the leafs pick ended up being 24th, which then got traded to boston, who selected mark stuart?
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2009/1/12/715877/leafs-trade-history-99-pre
Looks like you’re right. My mistake.
Down Goes Brown - Unapologetically nostalgic for the past. Brutally realistic about the present. Grudgingly optimistic about the future.
by Down Goes Brown on Jun 3, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
the leetch trade looks worse because of the lockout year, but we had him under contract for 04/05 as well. who knows how good he – and the leafs – could have been that year? it was the same for roberts, nieuwy, and belfour. was there another team that got more screwed by the lockout than the leafs?
I think we would have won the Cup. Just like the Expos would have won the World Series in 1994.
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
this reminds me...
i’ve been sitting on my damn ‘1994-2008 Draft Database/Analysis machine’ for about 2 or 3 months now. I decided to wait till closer to the draft, and also to update it with 2008 stats, but hockey-reference hasn’t got them up yet. what day is the draft again? i’ll definitely get it posted before then…
June 27th
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Jun 3, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok just putting this out there...
But I really don’t think that draft is that bad.
You need to compare it to the other teams in the NHL.
I wouldn’t say drafting Pogge was the worst plan in the world… he just hasn’t panned out yet. Nobody was bitching about him as a prospect until this season.
Vorobiev could still turn into a decent pick, and frankly he’s a top 4 D man in the NHL if he ever makes the move across the pond. Picking him in the 5th round is actually mitigating against the idea of him NOT coming to North America… so frankly if he ever does, that’s a very good pick… not a bad one.
Robbie Earl is a pretty decent prospect considering he was drafted in the 6th round. Sure he never made the NHL with the Leafs, but the guy was the MVP of the NCAA Frozen Four tournament and has oodles of speed. He just never managed to put it together.
Those 3 picks alone make me say this isn’t really a horrible draft.
Remember that the Leafs didn’t have a 1st round pick, or a 2nd round pick, they in fact didn’t pick anyone until 90th overall. SOOOO if you compare their picks to the rest of the NHL from 90 on down in 2004… who are they up against?
Vancouver picked Alex Edler, Detroit picked Franzen, and Calgary picked Dustin Boyd, Pittsburgh picked Tyler Kennedy, Tampa picked Mike Lundin, NYR picked Ryan Callahan, Boston picked Kris Versteeg – who ended up on Chicago, MTL picked Grabovski – who ended up playing for Toronto, Buffalo landed Patrick Kaleta, St. Louis landed Roman Polak, the Islanders picked Chris Campoli – who is on Ottawa now, Montreal selected Mark Streit in the 9th round (262nd overall in fact) – and he was 26 at the time.
Ok so we need to feel badly because 12 players picked after the 90th overall pick have played reasonably well as NHL regulars?? 12 players out of 201… that’s 6% guys. In a 30 team league, that works out to 0.4 NHL regulars for every team… or 1 NHL regular for every 2 and a half teams – and unfortunately Montreal landed 2 of those.
Pardon me for not seriously thinking the Leafs shit the bed with the players they picked so much as they did by dealing away the 1st and 2nd round draft picks.
The players they took when they WERE picking aren’t that bad – it’s the lack of guys from the first two rounds that really hurts. It’s not the scouting for the Leafs, it’s the horrible mismanagement by their then GM.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Not having the 1st and 2nd rounders makes the draft as a whole bad to begin with.
Vorobiev could be good if he ever comes over but my aunt would be my uncle if she had balls.
The jury’s out on Pogge but the rest of the guys not only didn’t become anything in the NHL they mostly didn’t even make it to the AHL. Just because other teams just as terrible with their picks (less any first and second rounders) doesn’t mean that it’s not a terrible draft by the Leafs.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Jun 3, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Relatively speaking
It really wasn’t a bad draft. What’s the point in talking absolutes in a system that purely compares you to your peers? We don’t have to be the best hockey team in history, we just have to be better than all the other hockey teams right now.
So who really beat the Leafs badly in the 2004 draft (after the 90th overall pick)? Montreal, Detroit, Vancouver, and?
I just can’t accept the argument that the Leafs had a “horrible” draft day because of two trades they made long before said draft happened, and then 3 teams were a lot more successful in the same range the Leafs were picking.
It doesn’t make logical sense to bitch and moan that they were worse than most other teams when they obviously weren’t much better OR worse than over 20 teams in the NHL. If they’re about as bad as 23 other teams in that one series of selections… well I haven’t got any huge complaints… and I don’t know why others do either.
We need to adjust the base line measure a bit here. Seriously… we can’t keep going and having a cry/cut session every time we think the Leafs should have drafted Franzen, Versteeg, Streit, and Callahan in successive rounds… it’s completely unrealistic.
This is like the real hockey nerd version of assuming the Leafs are going to trade for Marleau AND Lecavalier and only have to give up Kaberle and Tlusty… does that make any sense? Nope… but people probably wish it did.
We had an AVERAGE draft… if we had picked in the first two rounds, we’d probably have at minimum 1 solid NHL’er. We didn’t, so we don’t. C’est la vie.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 3, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Man, JFJ wishes that you had been his boss, “If the Leafs had made the playoffs they would have had at least a shot at the Cup but they didn’t so we didn’t. C’est la vie. At least they beat out 13 other teams!”
I just can’t accept the argument that the Leafs had a "horrible" draft day because of two trades they made long before said draft happened, and then 3 teams were a lot more successful in the same range the Leafs were picking.
You should accept that argument because that’s not what is being made. Most people here have admitted that the trades that occurred were made not only to improve a team that was heading towards the end of its window to win a Cup but were also made in the context of a system where the Leafs could replace the picks with their financial resources.
This is like the real hockey nerd version of assuming the Leafs are going to trade for Marleau AND Lecavalier and only have to give up Kaberle and Tlusty… does that make any sense? Nope… but people probably wish it did.
No, it’s not. That is just your way of trying to diminish the people that hold an opposing view. Way to prop up a strawman though because no one is saying “Aw geez, if only the Leafs were smart and had used their picks on Franzen, Versteeg, Streit, and Callahan! Oh, and traded Matt Stajan for a 1984 version of Wayne Gretzky”
People are just upset that the Leafs, as they have done in so many years during their drought, used the picks available to get close to 0 return so far. Pogge is literally the last hope for this draft to produce anything. They didn’t get most kids signed, they didn’t get them into the development pipeline, they did nothing with them. That tends to bother people. If this was the only time it had happened that would be one thing but it’s not.
We had an AVERAGE draft… if we had picked in the first two rounds, we’d probably have at minimum 1 solid NHL’er. We didn’t, so we don’t. C’est la vie.
Stop fixating on the two picks that the Leafs did not have in the first two rounds. The vast majority of people are not upset that those picks weren’t made. They are judging it based on the picks that the Leafs did make and the 16 NHL games that they have produced. What we can do tomorrow morning is see how many games the rest of the NHL produced to see if they did actually beat 26 other teams as you have suggested.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
What we can do tomorrow morning is see how many games the rest of the NHL produced to see if they did actually beat 26 other teams as you have suggested.
Hockey Futures saves us the work:
Firstly the Leafs:
As a result of beginning their selections at 90th overall, the Maple Leafs draft class of 2004 has played just 16 NHL games, for a per-pick average of 2.8 games.
So I have to find 5 teams that did better. To be fair to Steve I’m not doing this in any particular order but just the first teams that came to my mind or that came up in Google.
Also I’m going to skip Franzen, Versteeg, Streit, and Callahan.
One St. Louis
The eight picks played a total of 100 NHL games, for an average of 12.5 per pick.led by Roman Polak in the 6th round
NHL Games Played: 94
Two
Vancouver
The Canucks’ seven selections have played 312 NHL games, for an average of 44.56 games per pick — quite high for this draft class.
This is led by Edler who was drafted in the 3rd round with 177 GP.
ThreeCarolina
Even with not counting their first rounder, Andrew Ladd just their 3rd and 4th round picks of Casey Borer and Brett Carson add up to 19GP
Four Coyotes
Once again all we need is one player and no it’s not Blake Wheeler drafted in the first round. Kevin Porter in the 4th round
NHL games: 34and Daniel Winnik NHL Games: 128
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
(oops posted before finishing)
Winnik was drafted in the 9th round.
Five Penguins
Even discounting Malkin in the first round and Alex Goglioski in the second the Pens picked up Tyler Kennedy in the 4th round
NHL Games Played: 122
With these 5 teams and the players you mentioned that’s already approximately one third that did better with the picks they had than what the Leafs did and I haven’t even gone through the others. L.A. and Atlanta are the only two that jumped out at doing less with what they had.
Like PPP says the issue isn’t drafting NHL stars or trading away the picks the issue is what we did with the picks available. 16 games doesn’t cut it.
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
Thanks!
That saved me some work ;)
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Jun 4, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Just noticed your original post mentioning Edler, Kennedy and Polak as well. So let me take those out . Vancouver also drafted Mike Brown (now in Anaheim) in the 5th round so replace Edler for him in the previous post. So two more?
1. Calgary Excluding Boud there’s Adam Pardy in the 6th round, a solid 3rd or 4th-D-man
NHL Games: 60
2. Chicago Jake Dowell in the 5th round- will be a regular 4th liner with 20 NHL games thus far and Troy Brouwer 7th round
NHL Games: 81
Did other teams do badly as Toronto? Sure. Were we average? With the amount of servicable NHLers that went to other teams? Certianly not.
A Nation of Masochists a blog dedicated to Toronto sports fans, who are continually punished but keep coming back for more.
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