The Rule of Two
Editor's Note: Leaf in Habland, poor guy, takes a quick look at the importance of developing your own cornerstones in order to win the Stanley Cup.
So after Rick Nash got signed, I immediately thought: who is the next big free agent the Leafs should target. Some are saying Kovalchuk, but I have not heard any other suggestions. That's ok. You don't win a Stanley Cup by signing a big free agent to be one of your top two offensive guys. With some, but few, exceptions, Cup winners' are dominated by a "big two" (sometimes three, rarely is one enough) of homegrown talent. Here is a quick and dirty list:
09 Pens Crosby and Malkin
08 Wings Datsyuk and Zetterberg
07 Ducks Perry and Getzlaf
06 Hurricanes Hedican and Wesley (Staal and Brindamour?)
04 Lightning Lecavalier, St. Louis
03 Devils Elias and Gomez
02 Wings Yzerman and Fedorov
01 Avalanche Sakic and Forsberg
00 Devils Elias and Sykora
99 Stars Modano and Langenbrunner
Carolina in 06 represents the hot goaltender exception. You also need a very good goalie, but it is rare (maybe Montreal 93 was the last one before that) that a goalie will lead the team to the Cup alone.
All of the players on that list were drafted or developed (St. Louis, Fedorov would be exceptions--not drafted but came to NHL prominence with the team listed) by the team that won the Cup.
Maybe this is a function of big name players rarely being traded or signing away. But even if that is the case, it shows the importance of the high-flying franchise forwards (playmaking centre and his wing).
There are other ingredients. A goalie, obviously--a good one. For some reason goalies are more easily traded for or signed.
09 Pens Fleury Drafted by Pens
08 Wings Osgood Drafted by Wings (but left and came back)
07 Ducks Gigieure Drafted by Calgary but developed by Ducks
06 Hurricanes Ward Drafted (and rookie)
04 Lightning Khabiboulin Drafted and Developed by Jets
03 Devils Brodeur Drafted by Devils
02 Wings Hasek Drafted by Hawks, Developed by Sabres
01 Avalanche Roy Drafted and Developed by Habs
00 Devils Brodeur
99 Stars Belfour Signed and developed by Hawks
A stud on D is required as well, maybe two: a Scott Stevens-type and a Scott Niedermayer-type.
09 Pens Skuderi(H--for homegrown) and Gonchar (N--for not homegrown)
08 Wings Lidstrom (H), Rafalski (N), Kronwall (H) (two Scott Ns and one Scott S)
07 Ducks Scott N himself and Chris Pronger. Both N.
06 Hurricanes F. Kaberle, Bret Hedican and Mike Commodore...all N. How did these guys win the Cup again?
04 Lightning Dan Boyle (N) Pavel Kubina (N)
03 Devils Niedermayer/Tom Kurvers...oh wait (H) and Stevens (N)
02 Wings Lidstrom (H) and Chelios (N)
01 Avalanche Bourque (N) and Blake (N)
00 Devils Niedermayer (H) Stevens, Rafalski (H)
99 Stars Zubov (N) and Hatcher (H)
So, looking at this, it seems to me that while you can buy or trade for a top goalie and for your stud defencemen, your star forwards have to come from within. I admit this is a pretty narrow pool I've looked at, but I'm not concerned with the make-up of teams that win the President's trophy, or make it to the final four. I want to know what Cup winners have in common and then I want the Leafs to get it.
All this being said, then, let's calm down about which big FA forward we're going to snag next year. Let's be patient and see whether out of Kadri, Tlusty, Grabovski, Mitchell, DiDomenico, Bozak, Stalberg, Stefanovich, and Hayes, we can find two (just two!) big-time, home-grown forwards. 2 out of 10 seems reasonable. Look for two more to end up being steady top-six guys, then at that point, you bring in the hired guns to fill out the roster.
I'm not against trading for someone young and good, say Phil Kessel, or, circa 2008 trading deadline Jeff Carter. Picking up a potential star before he blossoms fully (Martin St. Louis for example) is one thing. But no one has won a Cup by buying a star in his prime. Not even the LA Kings and they bought the biggest ever.
As far as the D and goalies go, Toskala is good enough. Schenn is our stud. Kaberle could be our playmaker for a while if he's not traded, but you can get another D-man like that through trade, so no worries there. It is a bit worrisome that the prospect cupboard is kind of bare on that side. White (not really a prospect anymore), Stralman (might show us something this year) and maybe this Vorobiev character? Ryan Ellis would have looked good coming up the pipe. But hey, there is another draft next year.
All this to say, I think Burke is making the right moves, and we do have a fine stock of potentially star-calibre forwards. There is no good reason to go out and buy a star around which to build the team. When we are close (a couple more years) then add a final piece or two to a skilled homegrown team.
PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.
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I dont think Vorbiev will ever play because it will cost way too much to insure him and there is no way the Leafs will front that, unless they can get him to sign some sort of waiver
the more i think about it the more I want them to go after Tanguay, he isnt getting a ton of offers (that are known) and he would make a nice contributing forward.
too bad there arnt any good scoring centers out there
Because Taking The Leafs Seriously Is Not An Option
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 6, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The biggest thing about developing your own stars is that it allows you more money to fill out the rest of the roster.
Last year Malkin was a $3.8M cap hit and Staal was a $2.2M cap hit.
This coming year Malkin will be a $8.7M cap hit and Staal will be a $4M cap hit.
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by PPP on Jul 6, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One quibble Fedorov was drafted by the Wings in the infamous 1989 Draft.
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by furcifer on Jul 6, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
two quibbles
Kubina was drafted by the Lightning in 1996.
"If you are going through hell, keep going." Sir Winston Churchill, a Leafs fan...
Stalk me here...
by blurr1974 on Jul 6, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rod Brind’amour was drafted by St. Louis, played three seasons there, then nine in Philly before being traded to Carolina.
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by Chemmy on Jul 6, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Selanne, Pronger and Niedermayer were pretty important free agent signings in Anaheim.
Stillman and Justin Williams were big in Carolina, and Ward got a chance to shine in the playoffs only after Gerber had a great regular season.
St Louis wasn’t drafted by Tbay, he was picked up as a free agent after Calgary dumped him.
Langenbrunner led the Devils in scoring in the playoffs in 2003. He was acquired via trade.
Shanahan and Hull were important to the Wings team in 2002.
Most good teams aren’t built one way… it’s a combination of drafting, player development, trades and free agent signings.
by daoust on Jul 6, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In addition to the hot goaltender exception, there’s also the injury exception.
I’d argue that Carolina won their cup because their opponents were so banged up. By game seven of the conference finals Buffalo was so depleted they were forced to play a lucky winner from the audience each night on defence. In the finals the Canes played against Edmonton’s back-up after Roloson blew out his knee in game one.
During Tampa’s cup season they didn’t have a single notable injury. That may have been the healthiest team to ever make a cup run.
I wonder how Detroit would have done had Lidstrom not had testicular trauma and was able to play his usual spotless 30 minutes a night…
Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...
by mf37 on Jul 6, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Injuries
My thing with injuries is that they can not be used as an excuse. For the most part, teams are responsible for getting their players fit and ready to go. Detroit overcame Lidstrom’s injury probably as a result of a very good and knowledgable medical staff. Trainers are not all created equal. Having a good staff is also the mark of a good team. It’s not just luck.
by Leaf in Habland on Jul 6, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not citing injuries as an excuse. I am pointing out that injuries (or lack thereof) had a major impact on the winning of two, if not three, of the last five cups.
If Buffalo has a healthy D, the Canes don’t make the Cup Finals. If Roloson doens’t wreck his knee in game 1, Edmonton wins that series.
Bitter Leaf Fan: a life-long Toronto Maple Leafs fan comments on the team, the media and the exasperation...
by mf37 on Jul 6, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: quibbles
I believe I mentioned later on that St. Louis was not drafted. Kubina I just miss-typed I think. Fedorov is an exception because he was a star in Russia first, but he was “drafted and developped” by Detroit to an extent.
Yes, there are plenty of free agent additions who helped those teams, but all of them (minus Carolina, they are the exception with only Staal as a home-grown star) have two home-grown stars. Usually a first and second line centre (with the second line centre being more of a 1A than a 2).
Teams to watch:
Chicago (Toews and Kane)
Colorado (Stastny and Duchesne)
Flyers (Richards and Carter)
Bruins (Savard and Kessel)
Kings (Kopitar and Frolov)
Canucks (Sedin and Sedin) have the goalie, too. What are they missing?
Very good point about the salary savings from growing your own. Sens for example developped Alfie and Spezza, but the third piece, Heatley, might have cost them too much. Three big ticket guys is too many. It hurts your depth. Montreal will suffer through this, as will the Rangers (although, the 94 team would be the exception to the “you can’t buy a championship” rule).
Obviously there are no sure things (see injury exception, among other things), but seems to me the way to go is grow your own.
by Leaf in Habland on Jul 6, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Canucks (Sedin and Sedin) have the goalie, too. What are they missing?
Sundin? Err……
by lordosis on Jul 6, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hah
they’re missing a #1 D. I don’t care what their fans – or media – say, they are in serious need of a better defenseman to lead that group. Salo’d be good enough if he wasn’t already injured.
"Life is just a place where we spend time between games. Hockey is where we live, where we can best meet and overcome pain and wrong and death." - Fred Shero
by Karina on Jul 6, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Toronto (Kadri and Kane)
A Nation of Masochists TRUCULENCE isn't just a word, it's a way of life.
by furcifer on Jul 6, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OOOPS
Toronto (Kadri and KaneHall)
Tank for Taylor
A Nation of Masochists TRUCULENCE isn't just a word, it's a way of life.
by furcifer on Jul 6, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn’t Brad Richards win the Conn Smythe the year they got the cup? That was definitely a 3-man effort that year..
by LeafFanInVan on Jul 6, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, he was absolutly insane that year, amazing how he has trailed of somewhat since
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by JaredFromLondon on Jul 6, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've gotten into this debate before
But I really don’t think this formulaic crap makes much sense.
2/3/4 – it takes a whole team to win a Stanley Cup. Star forwards help a hell of a lot, but they aren’t a requirement. Having a top D man is great, but if he’s injured it hurts you a lot – look at Pittsburgh with and without Gonchar this past season.
Anaheim might have had Getzlaf and Perry when they won their cup, but Selanne and MacDonald were more important in their cup winning run, and I’d say Pronger, and Neidermayer and Giguere had more to do with it than either of the “2” you cited.
Hurricanes had a few things going for them, not the least of which was Cory Stillman, who you seem to be forgetting. Stillman was one of the best hired guns for the playoffs in recent years, as he also lit it up with Tampa Bay the year they won the cup. He was a free agent signing and he was one of the top scorers for both squads when they won their cups.
Brad Richards was a hell of a lot better when the Lightning had Stillman, Modin, and Fedotenko playing with them. St. Louis and Lecavalier were a lot better too. Funny how a supporting cast can do that.
Marc Savard was drafted by Calgary and bounced around before landing in Boston. He wasn’t developed by the Bruins. Nor was Zdeno Chara, or Denis Wideman, or Michael Ryder, or Tim Thomas (he was developed in Finland really), or Manny Fernandez. They’ve got some young talent, but apparently they can’t resign all of it.
Washington and Chicago are the next closest thing, but now they’ve got problems with free agency don’t they.
Why Detroit gets credit for having a big “2” when they had Fedorov, Larionov, Konstantinov, Fetisov, Kozlov, and more recently Holmstrom, Zetterberg, Franzen, Lidstrom, etc. Let’s face it, they were developed by the Soviet Red Army and the Swedish Elite League… not Detroit’s minor league system… development my arse. Heck toss in the fact that the team blew for the first decade Yzerman was on the club and you could argue against him developing so much as them adding pieces around him. I won’t bother getting into Chelios, Lidstrom, Shanahan, Hull, etc. at this point since I digress.
Ottawa has “developed” nowhere and they’ve gone through Alfredsson, Hossa, Bonk, Havlat, Spezza, Heatley, and apparently next up is Kovalev. I wonder if they’ll ever get it done? probably not. They had all those great D too… Chara, Redden, Phillips… so much for the best laid plans.
Dallas developed Modano, Langenbrunner, Hatcher… but then they also had Verbeek, Nieuwendyk, Carbonneau, Hull etc. I mean you can’t seriously think they win the Cup without all those veterans that played in previous Cup finals.
Let’s face it… the team needs some seasoning, and deciding whether or not we get one great forward through free agency now or later has nothing to do with it.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve@Leafs.HockeyAnalysis.com on Jul 7, 2009 1:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the team needs some seasoning
That sounds delicious.
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by PPP on Jul 7, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude
It was just for fun…
I didn’t write that two star forwards were ALL that was needed. I just said that a) 9 out of the last 10 Stanley Cup champs had developed their own top two forwards and b) it seems to be easier to beef up D and keepers via trades and free agency, than it is to get a top two forward. Obviously you need a whole lot of other stuff to go right to win the Cup. But it does seem that, for whatever reason (cost effectiveness, the fact that players of such high calibre are rarely available through trade or UFA anyway) growing your own is the best way to aquire one (or two to be precise) essential parts.
Prob
by Leaf in Habland on Jul 7, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pfft you can use facts to prove anything that’s even remotely true
A Nation of Masochists TRUCULENCE!! If you value your life, don't cross our blue line.
by furcifer on Jul 7, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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