The Trouble with Scoring?

I think your pretty spot on, but I’d give beauchemin a higher point total. He is going to get a lot of power play time this year and that should inflate his point totals

you’re probably spot on with Bozak, depending on how limited he is on games played. I’m thinking Stalberg might have a shot at 20 goals if he stays on the top line and continues to produce as he has in the pre-season.

I voted 275 + because of our historical consistency in outperforming offensive predictions, and the fact that we blew everyone else away in pre-season scoring, which is a reasonable buttress to our scoring improving this year. Plus Kessel. Plus Stalberg.

I voted the same because I am nervous but I would point out that Beauchemin’s numbers could be pretty low considering he’ll be on PP 1 and Kaberle’s represent about 0.5ppg when he’s a career 0.75ppg player so those could increase.

If the Leafs completely blow that out of the water however I wouldn’t be surprised either. They’ve had an avg pp for the past 3 years so a good one could bump them up a few spots.

Is it fair to say that what the mittenstringers really mean but are too stupid to say is that the Leafs don’t have a superstar scorer and/or offensive line that when the chips are down can often score the crucial goals?

Then again, very few teams have that so that isn’t even a fair criticism. A little more understandable from a fan’s perspective perhaps, but not from reporters who should, in theory, know what they are talking about.

Some of these projections will obviously be a bit off in real life but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them score at about the same pace they did last year. The key scoring-wise (leaving aside the defensive and goaltending aspects for now) is will the team deliver consistent and timely scoring. I think someone pointed this out recently in another post, but that’s the real issue… I think everyone remembers last year some times when the Leafs were rolling offensively and then the next game they couldn’t get that tying goal to save their lives.

Anyway, count on the so-called “experts” to only deliver superficial analysis and be too lazy to dig a little to get the real story.

 Fuck ESPN. Tampa is 10th. What does that say about their credability?

But I think there’s a bit of a problem with assuming White replicates his 10 goal season from last year since most of his goals were scored as a forward last season.

Also, if you take it as a given that Blake, Stajan, Hagman, Grabovski, Kessel, and Ponikarovsky are locks for the top 6, and that their production is unlikely to waver, I’m not sure how you can argue that Stempniak, Bozak, Stalberg, Tlusty, Kulemin, Mitchell, Wallin, Primeau, Orr, and Mayers combine for a total of 79 goals.

Minutes were provided to players last season based on those injuries that dropped production… which is why Mitchell got the opportunity to score 17, and why Kulemin managed to score 15… I just don’t think those guys will all step up with more production unless someone goes down with injury, and thus loses some of their goals in the process.

You’re also over-estimating the contribution of Wayne Primeau by a wide margin, probably over estimating the contribution of Bozak if he’s starting the year with the Marlies, and I think under-estimating Kulemin and Grabovski.

In the end the total likely won’t be far from your number, so yes I think ESPN is idiotic.

Yanno the burr under your saddles over the Toskala thing is a bit obvious, but I digress.

My point is that I don’t see Stempniak, Bozak, Stålberg, Tlusty and Kulemin all playing on those 3rd and 4th lines as mentioned. Since the only way they’re likely to see many minutes and thus produce at all would be a result of injuries to the top 6 we already settled upon, then that kind of produces a problematic result in the total for either one set or the other.

As for Wayne Primeau, Jamal Mayers, Colton Orr, or Jay Rosehill scoring goals… I wouldn’t expect them to produce a combination of 17, after last year combining for 8… when 7 of those came from Mayers… who was getting minutes on a less deep Leafs forward unit.

I didn’t say the 79 goals should be ZERO goals, I just said I thought 79 was high.

If you think that Bozak, Kulemin, Stålberg, Tlusty and Stempniak are combining for 50 goals, but they’re all slated to be on the top 2 lines other than Stempniak… yeah it doesn’t make much sense.

Last year the fill in’s for injured Leafs were coming from within also, and you’re ignoring the fact that Tim Stapleton, Boyd Devereaux, Jeremy Williams, Jiri Tlusty, Jeff Hamilton, and Christian Hanson, combined to score a measly 16 goals last season in their limited opportunity.

You’re basically saying this years fill ins will outperform last year’s by 312.5%. That’s a bit of a drastic increase wouldn’t you say? Especially when one could reasonably argue that Tlusty and Hanson are still likely to be two of those fill ins? You’ve replaced Deveraux, Williams, Hamilton, and Stapleton with Bozak, Stålberg, Kulemin as Kessel has dropped Kulemin out of the top 6. I just don’t think a tripling in that production is likely.

A doubling is more realistic to me.. but that’s just like my opinion… man.

Maybe this was explained somewhere and I missed it, but you have 24 players listed there. I know you have more than 18 skaters listed in last years list too, but is the final predication based on 1476 (18 × 82) total games from players (not goalies)? It looks like it’s 24 players all playing 82 games, which is impossible. I’m kind of tired, so sorry if I missed something.

I still voted for same or more goals than last year.

The Trouble with Scoring

Is that it’s full of Scores

I’m not really concerned about our scoring. I worry about the ability of the team to defend, support each other in each zone, eliminate the constant barrage of odd man rushes, and maybe just maybe finally get decent goaltending for the firs time in too long. I figure the goals will be around 250 or so. If they keep the GA to that level, at least, it will be great progress!

Don’t forget about a healthy Van Ryn. He’s had two 37-point seasons when he’s around for 80 games.

The Leafs will score 1000 goals. That’s not a typo. Unfortunately, 900 of them will be scored by Viktor Stalberg on opening night, who will then explode in a fiery ball of stupendousness, depriving the team of his contributions for the rest of the year.

Im going to say that Stålberg gets over 20 goals this year…

book it.