The Monster's Contract
by Chemmy on Jan 22, 2010 3:29 PM EST
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Print"I’d like to use Jonas more," [Wilson] said. "But it’s tough with the schedule the way it is. I’m not going to kill the poor guy." - Ron Wilson
[Jonas Gustavsson]’s the future of our goaltending as I see it right now and he deserves a chance to show us that he can carry the ball. - Ron Wilson
Those two quotes reveal a lot about what Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and the rest of the Leafs braintrust are thinking about right now. They're not naming Gustavsson the starter because of his excellent play - Gustavsson's been average if we're being kind - they're naming him the starter in advance of contract negotiations.
At this point the Leafs aren't sure what they have in Gustavsson. He was brought in as an SEL phenom and his success in Europe hasn't translated to success in the NHL. The Monster is head and shoulders above Vesa Toskala but honestly who isn't? If that's our measuring stick "so and so is better than [worst player in the league]" then don't bother watching hockey anymore.
We all know the excuses and the stories, and this isn't intended to be a hatchet job on Gustavsson I like him as a personality and think he's a work in progress, but the reality of the situation is that as of this morning Gustavsson sits 33rd in the league with a .901 save percentage.
We know Gustavsson would take time to adjust to the smaller NHL rink but that should have disappeared by now. The Leafs PK makes Jonas look bad (he's 45th in shorthanded SV%) but even ignoring that Gustavsson is 52nd in the NHL in even strength save percentage.
So why is Gustavsson being named the starter? I don't think it has to do with his play as much as his upcoming contract negotiation. The Leafs are starting Gustavsson to see what they have. In the comment mf37 said Gustavsson's camp is looking for $3.5M a year. Whether the claim is true or not isn't terribly important; it sets up the thought experiment which is the basis of this article.
If Gustavsson asks for $3.5M what happens? According to this year's RFA compensation schedule another team offering Gustavsson that much would net the Leafs a first and a third round pick. Depending on term and where the draft pick is it's probably a no brainer to let Gustavsson walk in that case.
If another team offers Gustavsson around $3M, the Leafs would only get a 2nd round pick back. Assuming you'd scoff at the idea of letting him go for a 2nd, how long would you sign Gustavsson for $3M for? Two years? Five years? On a short deal if he keeps playing how he's playing this year you leave him on the bench and move on, but if he starts playing well he'll need a raise sooner.
But where are Gustavsson's comparables? Mathieu Garon is much older than Gustavsson but has a better save percentage and signed as a UFA for $1.2M. Typically we'd expect to see a UFA grab more money than an RFA due to the aforementioned RFA compensation, but Gustavsson's youth probably holds more value than Garon. I think those balance out.
I'd say a fair offer at this point for Gustavsson would be a shorter term deal, 2-3 years at between $1.5M and $1.75M. That's a decent raise that's probably more than he'd get in arbitration at this rate and gives him a chance to prove that he's worth more money to a club right around the time he's 28.
The idea that Gustavsson's contract will be inflated because the Leafs have no one else in the system should be ignored. If Gustavsson's not the guy then it doesn't matter who's in the system the Leafs are going to lose with or without him. A short second contract gives him the opportunity to prove that he is "the guy".
If you were curious why the Leafs were so vocal about Gustavsson suddenly being the starter despite his fairly forgettable play lately wonder no more. The Leafs need to find out what they've got in Gustavsson in a hurry and I don't envy having to make Burke's upcoming decision.
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HEAR HEAR!!!
+1
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 3:33 PM EST reply actions
(or is it here here??? who cares!)
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
I hope that is the team’s line of thought on his value, I’d hate to see them overpay for him. He’s been the better option this season, but then most other options would have too.
What’s the risk that not giving him the payday, drives him back to the SEL or to the KHL instead?
Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
by blindfolded tank driver on Jan 22, 2010 3:45 PM EST reply actions
Honestly? He has a .901 save percentage. We’ll be fine with anyone we can sign for whatever if he leaves.
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I’d rather not give up an asset that is still in the transition to the NHL game for nothing. Doesn’t mean he deserves 3.5 mill, just on a team as dry with goalie depth as the Leafs, dragging a prospect from overseas only to watch him go back rather than stay is not exactly optimal. He’s not been great, but not terrible.
Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
by blindfolded tank driver on Jan 22, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
$ can motivate people
but i sort of think Gustavsson is here because he wants to be in the big show. Granted, he’d follow the dollars if they got ridiculous just like anyone would.
But i think he’s here to prove himself and win. And get paid one day, obviously. I dunno why, but i like his attitude and the way he carries himself. I think he appreciates how the Leafs have handled this health stuff more than can be discounted.
I could live with up to even abotu $2M. But anything more than that and I want to be buying some of his UFA years.
$6M for 3 years seems reasonable to me. That’s a bargain if he progresses into being a Top-15 goalie. And not too much of an overpay if all he ever becomes is an NHL backup and/or f&^%$ off back to Sweden at some point.
He might be the next Backstrom, or he might be Johan Hedberg. Barring something nuts in the next 30 starts i don’t think we’ll know which for a while. But his athleticism and raw speed in net makes me want to give it a chance.
I can live with Gustavsson + a UFA goalie signed in late July for a total of $3M. Better than the shit show we’ve had since Belfour left town
Just a little thing, but
I don’t think that Gustavsson’s youth inflates his contract value much at all. I would think that generally, for short-term contracts, all stats being equal, an older player would have more experience to bring to a team, while a young player would have to prove himself. On a longer-term contract, yes, salary often tails off towards the end of the deal to accoundt for a drop in production as the player gets older, but not for a two-year deal.
You show me a fox that's learned to deal with the Leafs' recent play, and I'll show you a dead fox.
Thought experiment:
Two goalies with identical stats the past year on similar teams. One is 25, one is 35. If they’re both the same cost which one would you sign?
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Do either of them have any super powers?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Hard to say. Either could have that potential to break out. Personally all things equal, I’d take the younger option. If that younger goalie does have a breakout year, it could be a cornerstone of a franchise for that much longer.
Sailing sucks @$$!
Personally all things equal, I’d take the younger option.
And that’s why being younger is worth more on a contract.
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Garon is comparable...
why?
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jan 22, 2010 4:00 PM EST reply actions
Because he has about the same save percentage and signed a contract recently. The other goaltenders surrounding Gustavsson in the save percentage hunt are mostly washed up or on entry level deals.
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Another consideration: years until UFA stats.
Monster is a UFA in 2 years, I wonder if Gus’ alleged big ask is for a deal that bridges over and into his UFA years.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
For $3.5 he better hope so. Not sure I’d take the risk on Gustavsson for that long for that term though.
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There weren’t any “Swedish goalies who played one year before becoming an RFA with a .900 save percentage”.
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I still think Miller’s a good comparison. and he signed a 8M/3yr deal which was probably inflated by playoff success after a rookie season with slightly better stats and still some question marks about his skills.
Miller’s deal was inflated by his 48 games of stopping 91.4% of pucks that came his way.
Gustavsson’s save percentage is .901.
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He also had a shutdown d pair infront of him, second goalie jay Mckee, and universal problem solver Teppo Numminen(without faulty heart valves)
Like i said, absolute maximum.
completely benefited on the long run to the conference finals. Also outplaying the incumbent Biron set the bar for compensation.
Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
by blindfolded tank driver on Jan 22, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
He wasn’t super better than biron, we were just done with biron and his inability to play more than 50 games without sucking.
Biron’s numbers that season were still good.
Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
by blindfolded tank driver on Jan 22, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
That season he only played 30-40 games, and he’s great for that many games. He only sucks after 40-50.
well, I won’t disagree that it was the wise choice on Buffalo’s part to dump him in philly the next season.
Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
by blindfolded tank driver on Jan 22, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
ok...
I was just thinking Mike Smith and Pascal Leclaire might be more comparable. They’ve all played about the same amount of games and minutes. Smith has a .904 making $2M and change while Leclaire’s SV% is .890.
Nevermind about Leclaire, Elliot inOTT or Deslauriers in EDM might be better. All the same age, roughly the same amount of minutes and games played, all on teams with suspect defensive abilities…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jan 22, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. I just think we’re selling experience levels short in this discussion.
Gustavsson has played about as well as the three guys I’ve listed, without any prior NHL experience, or even time played on an NHL sized rink.
These things have an impact on a goalie. Even Roy and Brodeur stunk when they first came to the NHL, but nobody ever talks about that. Roy didn’t even crack a .900 SV% until his third year in the league.
Not saying Gustavsson will ever be half as good as either, but a players first year doesn’t always define their career.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jan 22, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
a players first year doesn’t always define their career
Unless you’re Andrew Raycroft and it’s been downhill ever since.
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Patrick Roy LED THE LEAGUE with a .900 save percentage his third season. Times have changed; his rookie year .875 isn’t an .875 now.
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Roy’s .875 was 31st in the NHL in 85-86.
31st in the NHL right now is, funnily enough, Mathieu Garon’s .904.
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Actually Roy was higher, that table has at least five people who played one game above Roy.
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unplug your ears
i’m not comparing them.
I’m trying to find players with more in common than SV%. By picking Garon arbitrarily with his SV%, and then discovering that his stats are about on par with Roy’s for one year, goes to show how little one year means, unless you seriously believe Mathieu Garon is the next Patrick Roy?
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jan 22, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
I think Garon could definitely go apeshit while coaching in the QMJL…
Oh, that’s not exactly what you are referencing.
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think I ever suggested Garon was the next Roy and take it easy with the unplug your ears shit.
The whole point of this exercise is that because we have a small sample of Gustavsson’s play it’s hard to assess his value. If Ryan Miller put up a .914 and got $2.6M for three years, why would we pay $2.5M for a .901?
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Im suggesting that you pay him less than that, even though the cap is about 10%(20%?) higher and therefore you’d expect all players to make 10% more than comparable players 3 yrs ago.
The cap may stay the same, but it also might drop by about a mil or so
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
If you hang on to your draft picks, scout well and develop players well you might as well tell them to fuck off as UFAs.
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i'm still surprised
you folks didn’t take the compensation for Vanek
By picking Garon arbitrarily with his SV%, and then discovering that his stats are about on par with Roy’s for one year, goes to show how little one year means
But the comparisons not the same even then because Garon’s .904 sv% came in a much lower scoring league that Roy’s comparable season.
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Mike Smith has 126 games of NHL experience at a .909 clip. If Gustavsson had a .909 right now I’d suggest upping the offer to $2.5Mish.
Mike Smith signed his deal in 08, after being traded from Dallas. He only had an .893 in Tampa but prior to the trade he had a .906 in Dallas.
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go chemmy go!
I love when other people argue the same point as I would… I can sit back and enjoy.
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
So... Opinion poll time:
Satisfaction at these 3-yr Monster contracts (1-10 with 1 being toskala and 10 being brodeur)
2.25M$
2.50M$
2.75M$
That’s still a bit too high for me, give it a 6.
I’d prefer
2.50
2.25
2.00
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
None of them really make me hate them but:
Buffalo had a much better idea of what they were getting with Miller than we have.
Miller turned in a .914 compared to a .901.
Miller signed for $2.66M. Better performance, safer bet, we can’t offer Gustavsson more than $2.5.
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and
not a single season in Dallas as a starter. So, as their backup, I’m sure he was facing the really tough teams night in and night out?
AND, who knows how many years of experience playing on an NHL surface.
Gustavsson has not had that benefit with his training. He’s not even gotten to play behind a team like Dallas had during Smith’s tenure.
I wish people would read what the fuck i’m writing, because these whimsical hatchet jobs on Leafs get real old, real fast.
Have fun tearing down another player gang!
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jan 22, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
How is offering an unproven goaltender 2mil or so a year a hatchet job?
You can only pay so much for ‘potential.’
He is not a bad goaltender, but he is not yet good enough to qualify as sure-fire Starter in the NHL
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
How good would you need him to be over 3 yrs to give him a contract of 2.25/yr for 3? Huet (without the lol contract)? Bryz? Osgood(without the old)?
Depending on the team that Burke puts in front of him <-big qualifier
how about a .910 sv %?
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
If he can do that, I would be lining up to pay him enough $$$ when he is 28 and in the prime of his career(and we have a team in front of him – hopefully)
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
If we could pay $3M and get a goalie with a .910SV% it would be money well worth it. Unfortunately that’s not how you get to negotiate a contract.
What about Gustavsson makes you think he improves his save percentage from 33rd in the league to 21st?
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Nothing, that’s way we don’t pay him 3mil now.
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
We have to stop putting the cart before the horse, here. Stop paying for what could be in rookies, stop paying for what was for veterans.
Something in between would be a welcome change
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
So slight, less than awesome improvement. There’s probably a decent plan of that happening, especially if the leafs discover “Backchecking”
So, if we were negotiators, we’d start off at 1.75-2/yr for 3 and try to get them down to 2.2-2.4/yr for 3.
If he or his agent actually expects 3.5, kick em to the curb.
He should get a good contract in the KHL
In Soviet Russia, curb kicks you
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
How does the KHL pay those contracts anyway? i assume the government is helping/giving tax breaks to the owners.
The tax rates there are much, much less
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Multiple players at 13-20 mil a year PER TEAM? They can’t have remotely similiar revenue, either. Somebody’s losing money there, and i have to assume its not the rich owners, because you don’t get rich by wasting money.
It’s only the very best players (the top 1-2% of the league) that are being paid huge amounts. The role players and fringe guys get paid peanuts.
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yup – like here but even a worse gap between haves and have nots
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
i assume they pay most players in:
- smokes
- vodka
- women
Game of hockey is lifetime excellent!!
by Death_By_Leafs on Jan 22, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
also a .009 increase in SV% is actually not slight, it is fairly significant
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
your teammates could affect GAA – not sure how they can effect save % unless they are forcing the teams to shoot from poor angles.
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
If your D doesn’t cover the cross crease tap in that would kill your save percentage.
SV% is a better metric for judging goalies than GAA but is still linked to your team’s play.
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"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a difficult problem to separate out. Our last two starters, Raycroft and Toskala have been bad despite a regime change on defense from Kaberle-Kubina-McCabe to Kaberle-Beauchemin-Komisarek.
So both the goaltenders and the main D-corps have changed yet the total package still sucks.
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We obviously didn’t get the Komisarek and Beauchemin we thought we were getting.
With the D we have, we should be better… time to get rid of the PK coach?
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
It'
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
It isn't really the coaching
It’s the execution.
You can see guys missing obvious coverages all the damn time. The coach shouldn’t have to tell an NHL forward to pay attention to the defender creeping in back door from the point.
The fact that players don’t execute what they’re coached to is the problem here. Most of the younger players are still figuring out the NHL game, but some of these guys are just soft on puck clearances, or just bad at doing shit consistently.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
this is why i hate jeff finger
if you watch his game, he’ll make mistakes more often than doing nothing.
exelby is junk, but he knows it and plays like it. at the very least he will stand in the way and get in the way of the oppostion.
finger will keep backing up, or ‘go for it’ at the worst time, or turn the wrong way — actually sometimes i think finger is not an ambi-turner. on some plays he is spinning around and around like a hula hoop.
most of the time steady positioning will cause the forward to run himself out of real-estate or take himself out of the play and back it off.
finger does the opposite and makes every forward look like jagr.
by Death_By_Leafs on Jan 22, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Like Zoolander
Can’t….turn….left
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 23, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Also, I think they are too passive in the box and the forwards are collapsing too low allowing for the point men all kinds of time to make passes.
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 23, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
not just you
i’m no coaching expert, but my main beef with the Leafs PK is that they seem to all be collapsing into the slot
Like they’re all afraid of having to make the goalie face a shot, they clog up the shooting lanes.
Which allows the point men and guys on the wings to pass the puck around until they eventually find the seam.
Get aggressive and put pressure on the point men.
Yup
Things that could help:
- better players in front of him
- full training camp
- no heart problems
- full summer working with Allaire
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1. Our defense isn’t going anywhere.
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The players can improve themselves as well as bringing in players that can excel on the PK.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
I have a feeling it will be in the mid $2M range. Price will be driven by:
1. what other options the Leafs might have. When resources are scarce, price will go up (unless you’re the Oilers. Man the Khabi signing was awful)
2. How many years of UFA status Gustavsson includes in the deal. He’s 2 years away from being a UFA and a potentially much larger pay day (big emphasis on Potential)
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Competing options (2010 UFA Gs):
Turco .905
Nabokov .928
Theodore .906
Toskala .874
C. Mason .911
Ellis .912
Emery .900
Biron .900
Hiller .915
Budaj .925
Hedberg .913
Auld .895
Lalime .902
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Hedberg .913 on Atlanta jumps out at me. I expect Ellis, Mason, Hiller, and Nabokov won’t reach UFA.
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Revised competing options (with snarky editorial)
Turco .905 (old and in decline)
Nabokov .928
Theodore .906 (earning $4.5, will he sign for less? Does anyone think he’s a medium-term solution?)
Toskala .874 (hahahahahahahah)
C. Mason .911
Ellis .912
Emery .900
Biron .900
Hiller .915
Budaj .925 (terrible numbers last year, just 11GP this season)
Hedberg .913 (Might be an option, dude’s surprsingly old – 37)
Auld .895 (Re-united with Burke?)
Lalime .902 (At least Niewendyk is no longer a leaf)
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
oh oh oh
Toskala will be available! He must have had a freakishly bad year, and is bound to return to form, let’s get him!
(did you enjoy that cardiovascular workout? Builds a strong heart muscle).
JFJ is writing a similar memo for Doug Wilson right now.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Oh and
Jonas Hiller is an RFA… just saying.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
i dont think thats right
nhl numbers has him UFA.
he’s 27
he’s played 3 seasons (inc this one).
he signed as a free-agent
from what i gathered from monster’s situation, those things probably make him UFA.
by Death_By_Leafs on Jan 22, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
Ok
then why wasn’t he on the list above? I assumed it was because he’s RFA… did I mention I’m half brain dead right now?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
He was on the list
I’m losing the ability to read apparently.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
Ok I'm going to stop trying to think about anything Leafs related
and go play video games to recuperate from this week.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
I missed page two of the list I was using:
Niittymaki .906
Rinne .904
Johnson .910
Mike Brodeur .966 (tiny sample size)
Leighton .921
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Rinne might be a good choice
as another option.
He has great size, and he’s had very good numbers in the recent past.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
The only example you offered is Mike Smith who flourished in Tampa despite being injured. I wouldn’t base my argument on contract value on what Oren Koules did during his first days on the job.
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I wish people would read what the fuck i’m writing, because these whimsical hatchet jobs on Leafs get real old, real fast.
Hatchet job? Looks like a discussion of what Gustavsson will hopefully be getting paid based on his comparables. You have some you think are more appropriate and Chemmy has different ones. You’ve both made points for and against each one.
It’s not a hatchet job so much as a difference of opinion.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Until you play around with them for a month, and realize Ian White is due a 400% raise.
Resident Capologist
Toskala Cap Counter - only $1,689,840 to go!
Even if he doesn't
his agent will.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
From Jonas Siegel’s latest blog:
According to Wilson, Gustavsson has added about ten pounds to his wiry frame over the course of the season and is being groomed to handle 65-70 games as a number one goalie with a heavy emphasis placed on strength training and proper nutrition.
Remember when Maurice was able to keep a straight face and say the same thing about Raycroft?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Yes, but it’s too bad he’s often moved too far out of position laterally to put that glove to full use.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
learning curve. That one sounds like a teachable.
You can’t learn reflexes, but you can learn better positioning, and who opposing skaters are, and their tendencies.
Also, if you add 10 pounds of muscle to a wiry frame, that can also give you a small adjustment curve to high speed full body movements. Could be part of why he’s playing a little worse of late.
Nothing is for sure but I still have a lot of patience for him.
To paraphrase Derek Smalls of Spinal Tap, I don’t have the red hot passion for the Monster that some do, but I’m not as cold as others are. I’m somewhere between the two, kind of like lukewarm water.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I think you’re reading too much into this.
Wilson’s quote says goaltender of the future “right now,” which is something he didn’t need to say but did. He’s not discounting other options, he’s not calling something he isn’t. Gustavsson is the best option we currently have in net.
As for wanting to start him more, if we can all agree he’s better than Toskala, then of course he would like to. Wilson wants to win games, there’s nobody in the organization that’s going to give us a better shot than Gustavsson. Of course they want to put him on proper nutrition and weight training, doing differently for any player in the organization would be ridiculous.
But Gustavsson hasn’t been given the nod for next year by either party. Burke hasn’t said he’s not looking for another goaltending option. We haven’t even signed the guy yet, even though we have the option to.
There’s nothing in those quotes that promises Jonas the moon in a contract, there’s nothing that precludes any roster movement on the team’s part. All I see is Wilson being reasonable and, yes, doing a bit of a spin job on the media.
by koopa kid on Jan 22, 2010 4:39 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
But Gustavsson hasn’t been given the nod for next year by either party. Burke hasn’t said he’s not looking for another goaltending option. We haven’t even signed the guy yet, even though we have the option to.
There’s nothing in those quotes that promises Jonas the moon in a contract, there’s nothing that precludes any roster movement on the team’s part.
So “the Leafs are waiting to see what they have in Gustavsson” sort of fits in there for why they haven’t signed him yet, and no one suggested he was the starter or not the starter for next year.
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the only goalie we have under contract next year is Reimer… which means HE MUST BE OUR STARTER! jk
Wow, so much easier when you look at things in a vacuum!!
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 22, 2010 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry, this is what I get for reading the comments more closely than the quotes. From your talk about Gustavsson being offered $3.5 million that’s basically making the assumption that someone sees Jonas as an unchallenged starter, either in Toronto or elsewhere. Nobody pays $3+ for a backup or tandem (anymore…)
Looks like it’s coffee time for me!
Yeah I was perplexed because I agree entirely with your quote.
We don’t know if Gustavsson was offered 3.5 but if we’re talking contract we might as well talk “ridiculous upper bound” and getting a 1st round pick for Gustavsson is something I’d take right now.
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Yeah, I totally just brain cramped on the whole reading comprehension thing. I blame being back in school.
Although I’m not sure whether I’d take the first round pick or not. I guess it’d boil down to who’s offering and which FA goalies were available at the time of the offer sheet, because even though there’s some decent options out there most of the ones I want I can see being signed.
For the first rounder a lot depends on the organization’s valuation of Gustavsson.
If you could snag, say, Dan Ellis and Brent Johnson does Gustavsson’s ceiling go above that? If not you take the first.
If Burke and Allaire play the hell out of Gustavsson and figure that he’ll be a .920 guy in three years obviously you keep him. I just haven’t seen that high potential yet.
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But I think the point remains: Gustavsson’s getting the lion’s share of starts not because we’re worried about winning but because the Leafs need to know what he is in advance of contract negotiations.
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i think it's both
he has a better record and stats. At the end of the day, Wilson wants to win every night. give him credit for that, if very little else
I think I’m a little coloured because I like Gustavsson, and I want to see the good parts of his game.
I mean, when he comes out to play the puck or move laterally I want to throw up, but I think he’s got what it takes to at least stick around in the NHL.
I like him and want him to be our go to guy.
I’m willing to give him two or three seasons to see what he’s got, I just don’t want to dramatically overpay for a guy who hasn’t proved anything yet.
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This may be a totally wacky idea but...
If Gustavsson doesn’t choose to go to arbitration, perhaps the Leafs should take him to arbitration.
If we’re worried about someone giving him $3 million/year as an offer sheet and the Leafs only getting a 2nd round pick back for not matching, maybe this is an idea to go for…
Then again, it is early, perhaps $3 million/year offers for him won’t come…
Truculence...starting 10/1/09
Gustavsson was 24 when he signed his first SPC with the NHL
if you’re 24 at the time of your first signing it requires you to have 2 years of “pro experience” i.e. 10 games in the NHL minimum. He only has one.
I don’t know if his years in the SEL count towards it or not… but I don’t think they do according to the CBA.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
One check of the CBA later
Gustavsson’s arbitration eligible. He signed at age 24 and according to the CBA, he just needs the one pro year to be eligible.
Truculence...starting 10/1/09
K
you are correct… I should have gone to the CBA rather than reading some random internet chart.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
Either way,
I’d say arbitration is bad, because you either have to take what the arbitrator chooses or else you let him walk for nothing as a UFA. You get zero compensation in that case, and you’re stuck paying him a 1 year deal at whatever number the arbitrator rules. You also have likely soured him on the team, and he may not want to re-sign with you longer term.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jan 22, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
The Malady With Monsters
While you are debating the future of the young gentlemen who tends your net there are but a few issues which must be addressed.
1)Where are you gonna get a goalie to replace him? Yeah there will be a few decent options on the FA list this year but FA usually cost quite a bit more than their actual value, especially good goalies who can take you places. You could try the trade market but you are sort of low on trade chips with a ton more needs to be filled. You really can’t afford to add goalie to your buy list also.
2) You defense sucks balls. Not regular balls either, elephant balls. I love you all but seriously, balls. You are worst in the league in goals against. Most of the goals I see go against Jonus are ones I would label “not his fault” and are usually a result of defensive breakdowns on your team letting the offense go crazy on him. He overplays the puck sometimes but you don’t really stop people from coming in and claiming the slot which exaggerates his need to fully commit to shots knowing hes not gonna get help. Also where are you going to get a netminder that wants to play behind that? Who is gonna say “Yeah I totally want to f*** my stats up for low low prices and sabotage any future paydays?”
3)Which brings us to point three. In st.louis we had to way overpay kariya to join our terrible team at the time. We did it knowing this would bring credibility and he would be worth it at the time. Not looking at the goaltender position, how much more will it cost you to bring in good players to one of the worst teams in the league? You are going to have to overpay to get decent players on your team and saving a few shiny nickles on a goaltender is going to cost you extra dimes bringing in good forwards.
4) I don’t watch you enough but its been stated your team plays harder with Jonus in net. He doesn’t care about winning or losing right now so much as just playing the game and getting better(interviews) and I would assume that helps drive your team a bit. I bring up your defense again and point out they are really really bad. Your not going to get a good goaltender to come here to play behind that without greatly overpaying so that leaves career backups and castoffs trying to make a comeback. Are those two category really the better gamble than Gusto?
5) Hes Jonus “The Monster” Gustavsson. He has a chance for greatness, hes a good young up and coming goalie who has shown a ton of potential and do you REALLY want to see him walk and go to someplace like the oilers and become a star. Will he haunt your dreams or stalk your nightmares if he did? Maybe he will flare out and suck next year, maybe not but what other goalie do you feel will do better than him that you want to cheer for? He can become your goalie, he seems like a cool dude everyone wants to cheer for. If he becomes great little kids in toronto will be playing street hockey and the fat kid in goal will keep yelling MONSTER MAKES THE SAVE over and over again.
Pay him.
Pay that man his money.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jUBbCgMWmE
You make great points
But basically it’s going to work out this way anyway. Burke is committed to this guy, having personally recruited him at length, he obviously has buckets of potential with a very high ceiling, and is already performing at a reasonably good level… A bunch more games like this, and even if he doesn’t do much better, we’ll be a lot more confident that his floor is “at least ok”…
Burke also has a long history of getting reasonable contracts to players, so in reality he WILL be offered a reasonable contract, and we will try to get him a backup to split the load a bit next year to help further his development… For better or worse, and barring something drastic, this is where we have our wagon hitched for the immediate future, and it’s probably for better.
That just leaves us all here playing along at home, trying to work out whether the reasonable price is closer to 2 or to 3 million.
I like the monster
With a little more finish in front of him the guy would be like 20-10
by jmobes on Jan 22, 2010 10:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions
late to the party
but just a thought re: the miller / gustavsson comparison.
With a salary cap I don’t think you can look at absolute $‘s, it’s more important to look at the amount of the team’s cap that player is taking up. what was the salary cap in 2006 when miller signed? $39M? $44M? that would make miller’s $2.6M salary about 5.7% to 6.4% of the total cap. 5.7% of a $56.8M cap would be about $3.2M, which i agree would be too high for monster. But $2.8M – $3M short term (2-3 yrs) for a young tender that may potentially be your starter isn’t unreasonable, especially without many other viable options presenting themselves.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
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