2010-2011 Musings and Predictions: Part II
by birky on Oct 5, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
in Reading the Tea Leafs
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In Part I, several PPP contributors gave their thoughts on the pressing questions entering the 2010-2011 NHL season. Today's second and final section will deal with individual performance and team expectations. Who will lead the Leafs in scoring? Who will be the better goaltender? Can we expect significant development from players such as Nik Kulemin or Tyler Bozak? And the most important question of all: Will this year's Toronto Maple Leafs team make the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
Find out after the jump...
First of all, let me explain our method. Chemmy devised a user-friendly spreadsheet that allowed each contributor to predict goal totals for every Leaf player. In addition, it was possible to enter games played and final save percentage for both J.S. Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson. Using Chemmy's pythagorean expectation formula, the spreadsheet was able to give the predicted total points for the season. PPP, Chemmy, Skinnyfish, mf37, Karina, and myself each filled out a copy of this spreadsheet, Then, using the averages for each player, found a predicted points total for the team.
Here's a direct link to the spreadsheet: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/450148/predictions.xls
Feel free to fill out the file on your own and post the results in the comments.
And now....(drumroll please)............
2010-2011 Goal Predictions
forwards:
Kris Versteeg - 25 Tyler Bozak - 18 Phil Kessel - 37
Nik Kulemin - 21 Mikhail Grabovski - 17 Clarke MacArthur - 16
Fredrik Sjostrom - 7 Tim Brent - 6 Colby Armstrong - 13
Colton Orr - 3 Mike Zigomanis - 3 Mike Brown - 3
Caputi/Hanson/Mitchell - 11
defense:
Francois Beauchemin - 6 Dion Phaneuf - 13
Tomas Kaberle - 7 Mike Komisarek - 2
Carl Gunnarsson - 5 Luke Schenn - 5
Total Goals Forced: 218
Goaltending Predictions
J.S. Giguere - 50 GP, .912 SV%
Jonas Gustavsson - 32 GP, .907 SV%
Shots Allowed per game: 30
Total Goals Allowed: 221
Predicted Season Points Total = 89
Considering the team's lottery finish last year, an eighty-nine point season would show excellent progress for the Leafs. Unfortunately, it would not be enough to make the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Since the lockout, the average point total needed to finish with the 8th and final seed in the Eastern Conference is 91.8. The Leafs would fall 3 points short of that mark. The Leafs would be out of the lottery, but still golfing in April. But what do we know?
We'll revisit this post at the end of the season. Hopefully it will be with embarrassment due to our lack of faith in the team's performance. Don't forget to fill out your own version of the excel file and be sure to make your predictions in the comments!
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Note: the pythagorean expectation should probably be something like 89 plus or minus 3 points, so this prediction using last year’s standings is probably something like 6th in the East as a ceiling and 10th as a basement.
The point totals to get into the dance last year were low because the East got smoked by the West.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
The point totals to get into the dance last year were low because the East got smoked by the West.
Is there any reason to think this won’t happen again? I mean, the Atlantic division might be able to stand up to the West, but there are at least 9 Eastern Conference teams that I think are at least “likely” to lose against almost every Western Conference team.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
The Central should kill the East, but aside from that division, it should be pretty even, I think.
by red army line on Oct 5, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
San Jose, Anaheim, LA, Vancouver…
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In terms of divisions. I see one team, maybe 2, in the Pacific, and 1 in the NW. The Central, I see 4.
In the East, 1-3 SE teams, 1-2 NW teams, 3 ATL teams. Sounds even on the whole.
by red army line on Oct 5, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
1 SE team (Washington – and before you say Tampa, their defense is going to be destroyed by the West), 1-2 NW team (Buffalo if Miller is hot, Boston if they can score), 3 ATL teams (Pitt, NJ, Phi aren’t going to roll over).
Strong teams on the other side: Sharks, Kings, Ducks, Predators, Blackhawks, Blues, Detroit, Vancouver.
6 to 8 using the max for the east and the minimum for the west. One of Columbus, Minnesota, or Phoenix will be added at least, depending on who can find their game fastest. The biggest thing is that the east doesn’t really have these “middle” teams – the dropoff very quickly jumps to Atlanta, Toronto, Islanders, Canes…
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
Ducks?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Oct 5, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Why are you bringing up the Ducks? Their D isn’t all that great, and they’re in a similar boat as TBL.
I don’t deny the West is a lot better on the whole. But if memory serves the West won like 2/3 of its games against the East, and I don’t think that domination will continue.
by red army line on Oct 5, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Hiller is the only thing that keeps the Ducks in the conversation, I’d say. I don’t count on the Ducks to do well against their own conference – you’re right, their D is too shallow – but I think Hiller between and Getzlaf/Ryan/Perry, they will be able to make up the difference to give them a better-than-expected/average record vs. the East. TBL has Ellis and Smith.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
What’s interesting, is that using those exact same numbers, but reducing our shot-against totals from 30 to 27 shots against per game, we go to 94 points.
PLAYOFFS!!!!!!1
by Blue and White Expat on Oct 5, 2010 11:39 AM EDT reply actions
3 shots time 82 games = 246 shots on goal. At .910 that eliminates 22 goals against.
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Sounds about right, yeah. What it DOES show though is that if our defense actually plays to expectations this year, and we add competant goaltending, the playoffs are actually realistic even if our offense is somewhat underwhelming after our top three.
by Blue and White Expat on Oct 5, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh
I find it amusing that the goal totals I put in were off the top of my head while feverish and somehow the expected outcome was 89 points then, which basically has them finishing around where I think they’d finish without looking at any of this stuff.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Oct 5, 2010 12:10 PM EDT reply actions
screw that!
Grabbo grabs 20 goals this year, Kessel gets 40, and Phaneuf hits 17 like in his 2nd and 3rd year with Calgary. With all else being equal, that’s 92 points and PLAYOFFS!!!!1
The most pessimistic Leafs fan on the board.
by Peter de Chatham on Oct 5, 2010 12:31 PM EDT reply actions
2010-2011 Goal Predictions
Kris Versteeg 30 – Tyler Bozak 16 – Phil Kessel 40
Nikolai Kulemin 20 – Mikhail Grabovski 18 – Clarke MacArthur 16
Fredrick Sjostrom/Luca Caputi 8 – Tim Brent 6 – Colby Armstrong 13
Mike Brown 4 – Johnni Malkin/Christian Hanson 8 – Colton Orr 2
Dion Phanuef 14 – Francois Beauchemin 6
Tomas Kaberle 9 – Mike Komisarek 1
Luke Schenn 5 – Carl Gunnarsson 4
Total Goals Forced = 220
Goaltending Predictions
J.S. Giguere – 49 GP, 0.912%
Jonas Gustavsson – 33 GP, 0.907%
Shots Allowed Per Game – 29
Total Goals Allowed = 214.049 which we’ll just round up to 215
Predicted Season Points Total = 92.805 ~ 92 or 93 points
OOOOH
agreed!
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Oct 5, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
If you could find me a higher resolution pic it could possibly be turned into a drawing…
The artist commonly referred to as "Maple".
My Art Portfolio
by CanadianMaple09 on Oct 6, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
LW C RW
Versteeg 27 Bozak 17 Kessel 38
Kulemin 22 Grabovski 25 MacArthur 18
Caputi 13 Mitchell 9 Armstrong 14
Orr 4 Hanson 7 Brown 4
Phaneuf 16 Beauchemin 8
Komisarek 6 Kaberle 11
Schenn 6 Gunnarsson 7
Total GF 252
GP SV%
Giguere 48 0.914
Gustavsson 34 0.908
SA/G 29
Total GA 210.424
Expected Pts 106.902247
Cito is my homeboy
Hoping for 4 more goals out of Colton Orr might be a stretch, and the same goes for 6 out of Komisarek. But other than that I’m not going to dig too deep into this other to say that I think you’re being quite generous with the goals for
Bobby Ryan...can he be acquired?
blurr1974: No.
by Chris Stoikoff on Oct 6, 2010 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions
If the Leafs play the Devils 4 times this year, then Orr’s projected goal totals are way too low…
This is my BOZAK!!!1
by blurr1974 on Oct 5, 2010 8:47 PM EDT reply actions
Only two goals for Komi?
I'm thinking that when the Leafs win the Cup, I'll lose my drinking problem.
Only a -3 goal differential? PROGRESS!!1
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Oct 6, 2010 5:17 PM EDT reply actions
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