Things To Keep Tabs on Tonight

by Steve Burtch on Oct 9, 2010 3:00 PM EDT in Maple Leafs Analysis

So looking forward to tonight's resumption of the battle of Ontario, I thought I'd provide the viewing public with a few statistical areas to keep an eye on in case the game doesn't keep them interested enough. I'm putting the info in order from worrisome to good, so don't be discouraged by the early points.

Ottawa-Toronto is still young in terms of the rivalry stage so let's see what we've got from previous seasons:

1. Pascal Leclaire went 2-0-1 against the Leafs last year though he had mop up duty in the 5-0 shutout posted by Giguere.

2. Alex Kovalev likes scoring against the Leafs - to the tune of 26 goals and 68 points in 63 career games. He also has a +14 rating. Luckily last year he only posted 3 assists and no goals in 6 games, which was a nice drop from the 3 goal, 9 point season he had in 6 games with the Habs in the previous season.

3. Daniel Alfredsson is almost as dangerous as Kovalev with 29 goals and 63 points in 66 career games against the Leafs. Luckily in the past two years he has 4 goals and 2 assists for only 6 points in 11 games, so that rate of production has dropped off a tad.

4. Sergei Gonchar is another Leaf destroyer with 13 goals and 45 points in 41 career games against Toronto. 29 of those points have come on the PP and much of the damage is a result of his bomb from the point. He had 3 goals and 6 points in only 3 games against Toronto last year so they need to contain him to compete. Giguere had some success in stopping Gonchar while with Anaheim though, so that's something to give hope.

5. Jason Spezza likes beating up on the Leafs also, with 10 goals and 46 points in 41 career games against the Leafs. Luckily for Toronto fans, he has a groin problem and may not play tonight.

6. So far Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin have combined for 0 shots on goal. Neither one has been particularly great against Ottawa in their career. Grabovski has 3 goals and 6 points in 14 career games, while Kulemin has 1 goal and 2 points in 11 career games.

7. Tomas Kaberle's offensive game has been surprisingly weak over his career against Ottawa. He only has 1 career goal vs. the Senators, and only 26 points in 62 career games. He also looks bad in his own end with a -6 rating. This might have something to do with why he's lost the Alternate Captaincy.

8. Kris Versteeg has only played Ottawa twice in his entire career, and hasn't fired a shot on goal. This is uncharted territory, but here's hoping he gets off on the right foot. In the pre-season he only played in one of the three games against the Senators, and he was -1, with 3 shots on goal and zero points. Lots of room for improvement.

NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS

8. The Sens kids have sucked against the Leafs so far. Milan Michalek has 1 goal and 2 points in 8 career games against Toronto. Erik Karlsson has 0 points and a -3 rating in his first 4 games against Toronto. Peter Regin has 0 points and a -1 rating in 5 games against the Leafs. Sure Nick Foligno looked good in the pre-season, but so far in his career he has 1 goal, 2 points, and a -2 rating in 15 games against Toronto. Chris Campoli mainly played the Leafs when he was with the Isles, but his 7 assists in 18 games against Toronto doesn't really make up for that -9 rating he's posted.

9. J.S. Giguere only faced the Senators once last season and posted a shutout in the aforementioned 5-0 victory. He also has a 5-2 career record against the Senators with a 1.96 GAA and .931 SV%. Jonas Gustavsson's only loss to the Sens came in the opening game he played against them, and he only gave up 2 goals in the loss. Either way the Leafs should be confident their goaltending can handle the Senators.

10. Clarke MacArthur looked good on opening night and he's scored 4 career goals in 16 games against the Senators (He only had 1 goal in 20 games against the Leafs so it's probably for the best that he plays FOR the Leafs now).

11. Yes Dion Phaneuf may only have 1 career point in 7 games against Ottawa, but he's also a +7 in those games.

12. Luke Schenn already likes playing the Sens. He's already posted 2 goals and 4 points along with a +7 rating against the Senators in only 10 games. His 21 PIMs with Ottawa is also the most he's got against any NHL franchise.

13. Colton Orr loves to beat up the likes of Matt Carkner. Fist meet Face.... go.

14. Tyler Bozak is already better than a point per game player for his career against the Senators, posting a goal and 3 assists for 4 points in 3 games last year. He also has a +3 rating, 4 hits and 3 blocked shots. He can lead from the front in this one.

15. Colby Armstrong also likes to destroy Senators. He has 8 goals and 17 points in 19 career games vs. Ottawa. He also has a +8 rating and a 22.2% shooting percentage against them for his career. Weird but true.

16. Phil Kessel is a Sens Killer. 18 points in 25 career games, including 13 goals, 2 of which came on the power play, and 4 of which were game winners. He also has a +8 rating against the Senators, to go along with a high of 12 penalty minutes. Phil likes to light em up.

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Comments

Now I expect Kessel...

to run roughshod over Ottawa,

While Schenn does the same and Orr fucks up Carkner once more.

Leafs Indignation.

by Marc Pilgrim on Oct 9, 2010 3:03 PM EDT reply actions

Phil Kessel will become better than a PPG player against the Sens before he’s done in Toronto. I can’t remember him playing a game against them in which he didn’t score.

Bobby Ryan...can he be acquired?
blurr1974: No.

by Chris Stoikoff on Oct 9, 2010 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

Also, this year we have

ZIGOMANIS!!!!

Best fourth line center in the League!*

*Note – no actual comparisons have been done – possibly not true.

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Oct 9, 2010 3:12 PM EDT reply actions

7. Tomas Kaberle’s offensive game has been surprisingly weak over his career against Ottawa. He only has 1 career goal vs. the Senators, and only 26 points in 62 career games. He also looks bad in his own end with a -6 rating. This might have something to do with why he’s lost the Alternate Captaincy.

i’ll bet you $1000 wilson didn’t take the A away from him based on career stats against one team. he’s a +27 and 0.59 ppg on his career, that might be more important. why take a cheap shot at kabby after he had a great first game?

Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.

by daoust on Oct 9, 2010 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah I don’t know that we need to speculate on why he lost the A at all, really… he had an spectacular first game, maybe he feels like he can just go out and play his game now, and if he keeps doing that I’ll be super happy.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Oct 9, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

You misunderstood

I’m implying that he had the A removed because he seems to collapse in some higher pressure situations. His production against the Sens is lower than you might expect for one of their more intense rivalries.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 9, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

I’m not sure how it’s a “cheap shot” when I’m referencing HISTORICAL play against Ottawa for his career… not the first game of the season.

He lost the A before the first game of the season so I don’t see how that is at all relevant to the argument you’re making.

The Kaberle Defenders Club (KDC) has already had it’s first meeting of the season I take it?

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 9, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

i just think bringing up the stripping of the A is unnecessary and unrelated to tonight’s game.

and it’s more of an association/society really as opposed to a club.

Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.

by daoust on Oct 9, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I love it when eyebleaf’s mom makes rice krispy squares for us.

by general borschevsky on Oct 9, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

so good. your mom’s brownies are nothing to sneeze at as well.

Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.

by daoust on Oct 9, 2010 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The secret ingredient is hash.

by general borschevsky on Oct 10, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly. Why focus on these tiny sample sizes? That’s why it sounds like a cheap shot. If Wilson is making personnel decisions based on play against one team, when he has a much larger sample of data available on his fancy tablet computers and iPad, he should be fired.

by Shift on Oct 9, 2010 5:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

That said, these are some interesting statistics.

by Shift on Oct 9, 2010 5:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I never said

the decision was based on his less than stellar play against Ottawa… I was citing it as an example of his performance in high pressure situations. He hasn’t done much against the Sens… last year he had 2 assists in 6 games, the year before he had 1 assist in 5 games. 3 assists in his last 11 against the Sens is kind of worrisome if he’s supposed to be a team leader.

I just don’t think he puts up points in a meaningful way when crunch time hits.

Last year he scored 9 points when the score was tied, and 8 when the Leafs had the lead. Only 5 points in “clutch” situations. The vast majority of his points (32) came when the Leafs were trailing.

Two years ago MOST of his points came when the Leafs were tied (16). In 2007-08, again his highest total came when the game was tied (19). THOSE points are meaningful and he needs to get back to that this season.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 9, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

I wouldn’t call 62 games a small sample size for a player’s career. That’s actually a pretty large chunk of games for a guy who has played 821 games. 7.5% in fact… that’s almost 1 out of every 12 games he plays… it’s not insignificant.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 9, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions