How Important is Drafting in Getting Elite Centers?
So Ubiquitous had an interesting quote in this mornings FTB:
Little known fact: By most people’s definition, there are only 12 first line centers in the league. Pittsburgh has two.
This lead me to list out who I thought would meet the "average hockey fan's" criteria to be a number 1 C and in further discussion with Ubiquitous we noticed that many of them never change teams. I did a bit of an analysis on this pattern so if you're interested read on after the jump.
To determine who are #1 Cs I used fairly lofty guidelines. They have to be one of the following 2:
- Point per game threat (have been 0.95 points per game or greater more than once in the last 4 years)
- Consistent 65+ point player who has elite defensive talent
I came up with the following list names. I have included how they first entered the league (round drafted or FA signing) and how many teams they have played for (and if multiple how did they move)
|
Name |
How the Player Entered the League (Draft round/position) |
Number of Teams |
Times traded (T)/signed as UFA (U)/RFA (R) |
|
First Line C |
|||
|
1st/1 1997 |
2 |
1 T |
|
|
1st/3rd 1999 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
2nd/44 2005 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/11 2005 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/19 2003 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
3rd/64 1998 |
2 |
1 T |
|
|
1st/6 2001 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
6th/171 1998 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/3 2006 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
4th/91 1995 |
4 |
2 T, 1 U |
|
|
2nd/32 2001 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/2 2003 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/2 2001 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/24 1003 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/1 2005 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/1 2008 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/4 2006 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
Players capable of playing C who would be considered 1st line C but are playing wing |
|||
|
7/210 1999 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/2 2004 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/2 1997 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/24 1996 |
3 |
1 T, 1 U |
|
|
Not playing first line C but would be considered as such |
|||
|
2nd/45 1998 |
2 |
1 T |
|
|
1st/11 2003 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/23 2003 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
1st/1 1998 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
2nd/45 2003 |
1 |
N/A |
|
|
* Savard is obviously injured and his career may be over, but nonetheless he works for looking around the league. |
|||
|
**Kesler hasn't been a consistent 65+ point player but I included him anyway. |
|||
|
***I haven't included either Duchenne or Tavares because they have only been in the league one year |
|||
Some things I notice:
- They really don't move around much. With 26 players only 5 have played for more than 1 team (less than 20%).
- Of those that do move they are more likely to be traded (all 5 of them) than signed as free agents (2 of them).
- Blossoming late in your career may explain why some ended up on more than one team (the later team discovers their value (Savard and Briere)
- I know we hear it all the time, but wow the 2003 draft year was incredible. 6 of the 26 are from the 2003 draft year (5 from the first round), thats more than the number of players that have been to more than one team!
- Drafting high is important but not necessary. There are 18 first rounders, 4 second rounders, and one each from the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th rounds. Included in those first rounders are 4 first overalls, 4 second overalls, 2 3rd overalls (1 of which was H Sedin which may as well of been the 2nd overall), and 1 4th overall. So 69% are first rounders and 42% are top 5 picks.
This all suggests to me that drafting well (and high as often as possible) is very important in getting elite centers (further analysis would have to be necessary for other positions).
Now I will look at how these players are distributed around the league. So there are 26 players listed but some are on the same teams. So now I have looked at it by team and listed who their #1 C is if they don't have anyone on the list (#1 C was determined both by points and Average Time On Ice (from tsn.ca):
|
Team |
# of Legitimate 1Cs |
Who their 1C is otherwise by minutes played |
Who their 1C is by points |
|
WSH |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
PHI |
3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
MTR |
0 |
Tomas Plekanec |
|
|
TBL |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
OTT |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
CAR |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
BOS |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
NYR |
0 |
Brandon Dubinsky |
|
|
PIT |
2 |
N/A |
|
|
ATL |
0 |
Rich Peverly |
Rich Peverly |
|
TOR |
0 |
||
|
FLA |
0 |
Steven Weiss |
|
|
NYI |
0 |
||
|
BUF |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
NJD |
0 |
||
|
STL |
0 |
Alex Steen |
TJ Oshie |
|
LAK |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
VAN |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
DET |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
ANA |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
CHI |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
MIN |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
CLB |
0 |
Derrick Brassard |
RJ Umberger |
|
DAL |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
COL |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SJS |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
CLG |
0 |
||
|
NSH |
0 |
Cal O'Reilly |
|
|
PHX |
0 |
||
|
EDM |
0 |
Shawn Horcroff |
Shawn Horcroff |
|
* Tied with Doug Weight with 9 points, but Tavares has that in 11 GP while Weight has it in 14 GP |
|||
So some thoughts looking at this:
- There are 13 teams in the NHL without one of these "legitimate #1Cs". (Notes Olli Jokinen would have been a legitimate #1 C in the past; John Tavares could easily become one for the Islanders; and Brandon Dubinsky is playing like one so far this year).
- Most of the teams without a #1 C are near the bottom of the league. Only 4 of the 13 teams are in playoff spots right now, with 2 of them NYR and CLB in 8th seed. The glaring outlier however is St Louis who currently has the best record (per game) in the NHL. (Note its early in the season so teams rankings can fluctuate a lot).
The data is here for all of you to see too, so please comment below.
Cheers
PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.
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Great analysis. As I see it:
Good news: You don’t need a lottery pick to get an elite centre. 8 of your top 16 were either non-lotto picks or acquired by UFA/trade.
Bad news: You do need to draft these guys. It’s incredibly rare to get one by the UFA/trade market.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
So for the Leafs: If Kadri isn’t an elite #1C, we’re not going to get our hands on one for quite some time.
Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?
Not necessarily
31% are still from the second round or later, so clearly Olden is a guarantee (jokes).
As well while they don’t move often we can look at those players that are likely to move (purely subjective).
1)With Ribiero being named captain I think Richards goes free.
2)I think there are even odds Carter is out the door, because they are tight on the cap and they can get the most for him (though we can’t afford a trade for him). (Otherwise its Mezaros, Carle, or Cobourne that goes, but I don’t think they can get much for them).
3) Savard may become available if Krecji and him both get healthy. But I don’t think anyone is interested until he has at least 2 months of solid play.
4) Spezza keeps being mentioned and if they want a youth movement I can see him being moved (a mistake in my eyes as he is still relatively young).
5) Briere can be had if you want him, but people don’t like his overall game and has a big cap hit (I’m a huge fan personally).
6) Pominville didn’t make this list, but he could probably be had.
7) With Marleau and Thornton just signed and their D sucking, do you think Pavelski could be available? He did not make this list but looks to be progressing towards it.
The leafs prospects that have any shot whatsoever of becoming a “legitimate 1C” and my pulled out of my behind likelihood of them pulling it off
1)Kadri (33.333%) (I see him moving to the wing. I hope we don’t keep him in C for organizational need reasons if he can be more succesful on the wing)
2)Bozak (15%)-So he is in a sophomore slump. The reason I can see him making this list is that I know he can be defensively responsible and believe he may be able to become a 65+ point player (never point per game). I doubt though that he’ll become an ELITE defensive forward AND reach his full offensive potential.
3) Sondre Olden-I am not putting a percent on this I have no idea about him. But he has a tall body that he is going to look to fill in over the next 1-3 years and seems to have some nice moves. Maybe we can get something from him.
For the record their hockey’s futures numbers are:
Kadri-8.0 C (Potential is a first liner but C means he only may make it here. Ideally the legit 1C’s we are talking about here are 8.5s.
To understand Hockey’s futures rankings here is the site http://www.hockeysfuture.com/playerprojections/, but in my own words:
10-Generational Talent (Lemiux, Greztky, Orr)
9-Perennial All Star (Sakic, Sundin, Datsyuk, Dan Boyle)
8-All Star threat-first liner (Nathan Horton, Patrick Marleau, Nolan, Hejduk)
7-Good second line player, can be on a first line just can’t be the star (Dustin Brown, Ryan Malone)
A- Going to reach their max potential (95% chance)
B-Should reach it (80% chance)
C-May reach it (60% chance)
D-Unlikely to reach it (30% chance)
F-why does this exist? (10% chance)
I B-Leaf
1. Richards might become available but I think that they’ll have to keep him if his season keeps going as it has.
2. I think Philly follows Chicago’s model and keeps Carter and gets rid of any other salary to do it.
3. Savard maybe but it would have to be for nothing with that history of concussions and the after effects.
4. Spezza is Ottawa’s last good forward after Alfie retires.
5. Briere might be a guy that is available in order to keep younger guys in Philly.
6. You think Pominville becomes available?
7. Pavelski I think is in the class of guys that teams will find other ways to keep.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
To me
Those are the guys that have ANY chance of being moved. Not that they are likely to be moved. I more or less agree with all of what you say. The difference though is that Philly has more NTCs/NMCs than Chicago did and I think a little more locked up.
But if they move Briere instead of Carter they are all good. I’d take Briere any day…
I B-Leaf
Yeah
There is a chance. Briere is the most likely one to be honest. Could help the Flyers a lot this summer.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
I’d take anyone that can score right now to be honest.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
:D
Everyone (particularly Jared) seem against Briere. But I like the guy, he can score well with ice time, plays well in the playoffs, and can probably be had relatively cheap (they need the cap room. They basically through Gagne away (mind you he had an NTC)).
I B-Leaf
if Brier wasnt signed to the next millenium i might think about it
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 11, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Where did you come from?
Do you read every fan post?
(ps this is not a criticism, this is only my second fanpost and I love how many PPP regulars are here :D)
I B-Leaf
Most regulars read every FanPost.
and as for Jared, I’m pretty sure he’s a part of the PPP Matrix by now…
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 11, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
yes
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Nov 11, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
unfortunately I comment on few of them as time only permits me to read most of this stuff and not write about it.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Nov 11, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
In regards to your post
Briere is signed through 2014/2015 and he will be 37 that year. That is by no stretch young, but it is also not ancient. I just noticed he has a full NMC, which again leads me to the fact Carter is the one thats moving.
I B-Leaf
Flyers fan here. It appears they want to keep Carter, Giroux, Briere, Richards and Betts. They do not seem to be considering moving Carter at all. In fact he is working on an extension.
If the Flyers could move Briere, I don’t think they would hesitate
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 12, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
don’t forget Leino & van Riemsdyk
I think they need to move one of their top forwards (i.e. Carter or Briere) and get the space in the summer to go after someone like Bryzgalov, Vokoun, or even Thomas (via trade)
If Bobrovsky ends the season with 30 wins, and decent numbers, would you be comfortable handing him the reins? Because I would sure be worried about the out-of-nowhere ‘rookie’ spike that so many others have displayed (Emery, Mason, Varlamov, etc)
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 12, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
to go after someone like Bryzgalov, Vokoun, or even Thomas
Bryzgalov isn’t moving, Vokoun maybe, and Thomas just had a stretch of games that makes him an early Vezina favorite.
Phili went to the Stanley Cup finals effectively without a goalie. Bobrovsky looks like he’s a legitimate talent – a little small, but once he figures out how not to get beat over the shoulder, I think he’s a notable upgrade over the rest of Phili’s netminders last year. I don’t see them dying to pull down a goaltender.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
i meant in the off-season. Thomas won a Vezina 2 years ago but all summer he was movable because of Rask (sigh).
Who knows financially what happens in Phoenix, they might go for some budget plan instead of giving Bryzgalov 4 or 5 mil.
And if Philly doesn’t try for a consistent goaltender, and keeps rolling the dice then they risk undermining themselves yet again by not fixing their goaltending.
Bobrovsky is playing great, but it is 15 games into his first ever season. I would not anoint him as the starter into the promised land.
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 12, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
With Savard as the earliest recorded #1C by draft year, you can see that there have only been 26 #1C player (counting those who aren’t currently playing as #1C) in the past 15 years, approx 2 per year, so they really aren’t easy to come by in the draft.
True
Another interesting thing is they are all relatively young (Savard is the oldest I believe), but I can’t think of anyone currently playing that would have deserved to be on that list 6 or 7 years ago besides Doug Weight. I wonder if elite centers don’t last as long? The other guy I can think of is Foppa who had injury problems. He’d probably be finishing his career around now.
he just announced another comeback. Go Burke Go!
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 10, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
12 of 26 top centres were not acquired in prohibitive draft positions (i.e. Bottom half of the 1st round or lower)
This suggests that every team has the same chance to draft these players, and the ones with luck or good scouting come away with the best guys.
Hopefully we can get some of both.
Detroit picked good guys, but if they thought they would turn out the way they did they would have picked them a lot higher.
Search Daoust’s fan post about draft analysis… Detroit isn’t actually all that special.
Development is where Detroit shines.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Nov 11, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
Some guys they just know they can pick late.
I’m pretty sure I’ve heard a story how they found Datsyuk in Russian Div 2 in the middle of nowhere – no point in spending that 2nd or 3rd rounder when you’re the only ones that know he exists.
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 11, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
can’t take that chance anymore.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Nov 11, 2010 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
So true
They used to have a huge advantage on European scouts that they simply don’t have anymore. I did love picking Neal in fantasy pools this year around the 8th round with people who didn’t even know who he was…
I B-Leaf
Shaq? He’s just gonna get injured again….
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 12, 2010 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
That's flawed logic
the idea that you’re going to keep draft picks secret at all in this day and age is a bit silly.
Also when they drafted Datsyuk he was playing for Dynamo-Energyia Yekaterinburg, who were playing in the top division of the RSL, and he had 8 points in 24 games for the top side in the 1st division, and 15 points in 22 games for their 2nd team which was playing in the 3rd division.
If they had ANY idea how he would pan out, I doubt it was based on what they’d seen of him in Russia to that point, and I doubt they’d have let him languish to the 171st overall pick if they thought he was better than Ryan Barnes or Tomek Valtonen or Jake McCracken or Brett Hobday or Calle Steen or Adam DeLeeuw.
Yeah I haven’t heard of most of those guys either, and I don’t think anyone is likely to again.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 12, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
p.s.
it was 1998, not 1898. People had phones, Television, and the internet thing called e-mail back then.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 12, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
for instance
Anaheim drafted Vitaly Vishnevski, and Toronto drafted Nik Antropov and Buffalo drafted Dmitri Kalinin, Vancouver drafted Artem Chubarov, Pittsburgh drafted Alexander Zevakhin, Nashville drafted Denis Arkhipov, Tampa Bay drafted Dmitri Afanasenkov, LA drafted Alexei Volkov, Toronto drafted Alexei Ponikarovsky, Ottawa drafted Peter Schastivy, New Jersey drafted Anton But, Edmonton drafted Oleg Smirnov, Tampa Bay drafted Sergei Kuznetzov, and St. Louis drafted Andrei Troschinsky… ALL OUT OF RUSSIA BEFORE DETROIT DRAFTED DATSYUK.
Many of those guys were playing in the 2nd division, some were playing in the 1st (which is where Datsyuk played half his season).
People just didn’t think that highly of him at the time, and post-mortem dissection that makes Detroit look like geniuses for getting lucky is silly.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 12, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
a) the differences in draft approach and scouting standards have changed drastically since 1998, and it may very well be like comparing 2 different centuries at this point. The story goes that the scout had gone out to see Datsyuk multiple times over that season, and never saw another scout in the stands once.
This isn’t based on YouTube votes. They identified the parts of the game they thought would make him a valuable prospect, and put him on their list for that reason. Stickhandling, passing vision, takeaway skill, and two-way game are possible things that were on their checklist – none of which will emerge from a flat reading of his Russian league point totals. Evaluations are made from watching the player play, and that is what the story described.
None of us saw him play back then, so we can’t say if this was true at the time or revisionist history from the Detroit scout.
b) In a similar story, the Nashville scout alerted the team to Pekka Rinne despite him playing only 1 game (and getting drubbed for 7) that season. They were there to court Backstrom (who declined to sign in the NHL at the time) but the scout said Rinne was a good goalie from watching his practices with Karpat.
The next season, Rinne took on more of a backup role, and the 14 appearances were enough for the scout to recommend that Poile spend a pick on the young Fin.
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 12, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
You should know that other teams’ picks have nothing to do with whether or not Detroit has good or bad scouts.
I didn’t say that Detroit was the only team looking at the Russian League. I said the story was the scout who was keeping tabs on Datsyuk didn’t see anyone doing the same.
And the story was the scout called Jim Nill or Jimmy Devellano on a cell phone from the arena to first tell him about Datsyuk. I didn’t say it was by carrier pigeon. But if other teams are spending their time & effort in the same leagues as everyone else, then it doesn’t matter what technologies are available.
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 12, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
The main factor in pick position has nothing to do with relative talent level. It is determined by expected future availability, which itself is mostly based on talent, but not entirely.
Teams take players based on their knowledge of other teams’ preferences, and the expectation that the desired player will still be available with your next pick. If you take a “better” player that will still be available later, then you are wasting an asset.
Most of the guys taken by Detroit earlier in that draft were OHL or WHL players. They are definitely going to be on the radar of every other NHL team, especially since teams might already have a prospect on the team they are keeping an eye on. The odds that one of these players is an unknown to a majority of NHL teams is unlikely. Therefore they warrant the higher picks because they are less likely to be available in future rounds.
Thought experiment:
Players A, B, and C are available in a 3-man draft.
All players are at a similar range in skill, but A is better than B by a slight margin, who is better than C by a slight margin.
Based on team preferences & positional needs, I want players A & B, and through a draft crystal ball I know that you want players B & C.
If I have pick 1 and 3, who do I take 1st overall?
I don’t take the “best” player – A – because then you take B and I get stuck with C, who I didn’t want.
I take B. You then take C, and I get A with the 3rd pick.
B-C-A is not the actual order of their talent levels, but it is the draft order. I do this because I don’t want to have a “wasted” pick with my second choice.
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 12, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
Great analysis. Makes me feel happy to know that we dominate in number of legitimate first line centers. Also I know Giroux doesn’t fit your criteria but in a couple of seasons he might and (if we sign Carter to the rumored 10 year deal) that means in a couple of seasons we’ll have four!
Oh wait. You can only have three scoring lines. And we don’t have any quality top line wingers.
Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Nov 12, 2010 7:15 PM EST reply actions
between Briere, Carter, Richards, Giroux, Leino, & van Riemsdyk, I don’t think centres/wingers will be an issue at all for Philly.
by Death_By_Leafs on Nov 12, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
I'm responding to this late perhaps
I don’t get as much time to read on here as I’d like during midterms… but I digress…
I feel like its possible Mike Cammalleri should be included. He’s played C in the past and has had two seasons above 0.95 ppg in the past 4 years. I also think Plekanec could qualify legitimately for your list after this season, as he is currently at 0.93 ppg, and he’s hit the 0.85 ppg plateau twice already in his 4 year career. Montreal is far closer to having a top line C with those two and Gomez than the Leafs are.
Cammalleri has also played for 3 teams already in his career… and moved once as a UFA.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Fair enough
I forgot that Cammy played C. This list wasn’t really supposed to be exhaustive more looking at trends. But thank you, he could be added.
Pleks may very well be there at the END of the year, but not yet.
I B-Leaf
Also
listing Peverley as the top line C on the Thrashers is weird when Antropov played that role for the team last year and led the team in scoring. He is currently playing with Evander Kane more than any Centre on the team also… so I think that likely has something to do with his numbers this year.
They played Antropov with Kovalchuk, Bergfors, and Afinogenov last year ahead of Peverley, so despite what we’re seeing from Peverley with Ladd this season, I’d think longer term Antropov is more likely to be a top minute guy… but that’s all spit balling on my part.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
I know what you mean
I figured I’d do it purely statistical so I don’t have to make those calls. I just listed their first line C by two different criteria, both minutes played and points. You can debate the stuff if you’d like, but its not really the point of the post.
Cheers.
I B-Leaf
Purely statistical is the way to go. Great post.
This clearly shows that you either have to draft first line centers or get really lucky. Both of these take a long time, unfortunatly.
Mike Weber: Rejailed into the pressbox.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Thanks man
I made it just for you <3. Haha jokes.
I guess Buffalo is one of those lucky teams eh? 2nd round!
I B-Leaf

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