Back to Back Hopefully Becomes Back to Form
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals from the Verizon Center- 7PM TSN, NHL-N (US)
After losing for the 6th time in 7 games last night, the Leafs have to face the perennial regular season powerhouse Washington Capitals on no rest. Normally playing games back-to-back would see a team weakened for the second outing, but seeing as how the Leafs played with no energy last night against provincial rival Ottawa, they should be well rested for this evening's festivities.
The story for tonight's game is one of dichotomy. The Leafs are a back-end out team rooted in solid defensive play and quality goaltending. They aren't going to score a ton of goals, and are going to play a lot of close 1 goal games this season. Washington is built in a completely opposite fashion. They are a run and gun team built to do one thing and do it well; score goals. But it's live by the sword, die by the sword as they've been known to lose many a game by ridiculous scores like 6-5. But I don't foresee a game like that tonight.
Up front, the Leafs have the 2nd worst offense in the league scoring a paltry 2.27 goals a game and only putting 27.4 shots on net on average; 3rd worst in the league. Washington, with its high fliers in Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alex Semin, pot 3.09 goals a game (6th) and take 31.6 shots a game (11th). Aside from Phil Kessel, the Leafs have no forwards who can hang with Washington's Top 6.
Here are the forward lines for tonight (subject to change) (they've changed):
| Maple Leafs | Capitals | |||||
| Bozak | Kessel | Ovechkin | Backstrom | Semin | ||
| MacArthur | Grabovski | Kulemin | Laich | Fleishmann | Knuble | |
| Brent | Brown | Chimera | Gordon | Fehr | ||
| Sjostrom | Hanson | Orr | Hendricks | Steckel | Bradley |
Advantage: Washington +
More after the jump.
Up at the point it's a different story. The Leafs defense has somehow manged to only give up 26.3 shots a game, good for 2nd best in the league. However, due to some flukey happenings and penalty shots, their goals against is 2.36 which is higher than one would expect with such a low shot against total. Washington, usually believed to view defense as an afterthought, is actually surprisingly decent in the shots against category only giving up 29.1 a game. Though I believe that to have more to do with having the puck in the offensive zone for most of the game as opposed to solid defense. The loss of Captain Dion Phaneuf surely weakens the Buds blueline, but with veteran Mike Komisarek able to step in to his 22+ minutes a night, his loss will not have as big of an impact as one may think. Per John Bartlett, Korbinian Holzer gets to sit in the press box tonight as the 7th defenseman.
Here are the defensive pairings for tonight (subject to change):
| Maple | Leafs | Capi | tals | |
| Beauchemin | Komisarek | Schultz | Green | |
| Kaberle | Schenn | Erskine | Fahey | |
| Lebda | Gunnarsson | Alzner | Carlson |
Advantage: Toronto -
Between the pipes it'll be two young Europeans looking to make a mark getting the starts. For Washington, Michal Neuvirth, the NHL's rookie of the month for October, has looked fantastic thus far. In 10 games, he has 7 wins, a .926 sv%, and a GAA of only 2.15. Long gone are the days of Jose Threeorfour; the Capitals may have found that NHL caliber goalie they so desperately need for post-season success. 178 feet away, it'll be Jonas Gustavsson in net for the Leafs. Despite a losing record of 1-2, he has been great with a .921 sv% and 2.36 GAA. A goalie has to rely on his team to score goals for a win if he's only letting 2 in a night. This will be the toughest opposition the Monster has faced this season, but it looks like he's up for the challenge.
THE GOALIES!!!1
| Maple Leafs | Capitals | |
| Gustavsson | Neuvirth | |
| Giguere | Holtby |
Advantage - Even
The Capitals are going to score goals tonight; it's what they do best. The question will be can the Leafs do the same and rely on their back-end to keep the Capitals chances down and Ovechkin in check? To get out of their current slump and continue to have a shot at the playoffs, the Leafs are going to have to steal some games away from teams who "should" beat them. Tonight is one of those games. GO LEAFS GO!
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Oooh I like this format for the preview.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:03 PM EDT reply actions
Same. Good preview.
If Gustavsson gets a win tonight, he should start on Saturday. His games so far have been against Pittsburgh, New York, Boston, and now Washington. He was great in the first three, hopefully he gets it done tonight.
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
And I'm on Tweetbook
Since I count as 4 people myself, make it 8x
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
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by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
well the good news is our PP can’t get much worse right? if anything, it’s going to cause the forwards to be more active and dare I say it…carry the puck into the slot?
Dion Phaneuf: turning the tunes up since '10
Caps PK was 90% last time I checked. Don’t bet on it ;)
by red army line on Nov 3, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, great preview.
Lebda, may you not screw things up for us.
Kaberle, may you start shooting the puck again.
Gustavsson, it’s time for you to get hot.
GO LEAFS GO!
Brett Lebda is an anagram for BATTLE BRED. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 3, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions
Does anyone else think it might be worth re-uniting Gunnarsson and Beauchemin? I thought they were great together last year and I think Gunnarsson’s played well the last couple times he was in there. I worry about a Gunnar-Lebda pairing…
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
I, too, worry about Gunnar-Lebda.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not worried about our goaltending or defense, I’m worried about our scoring.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I’m worried about global warming
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m worried about all three. But mostly the scoring.
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
And I'm on Tweetbook
i’m worried these pants make me look fat.
I would like to extend to you, an invitation to the Pants Party.
by blurr1974 on Nov 3, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You don’t wear pants.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
so, you’re saying they do make me look fat?
I would like to extend to you, an invitation to the Pants Party.
by blurr1974 on Nov 3, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
zombie plan, thy name is boomstick
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Read a Simon Pegg interview recently in which he revealed his zombie plan is to get into one of the larger football stadiums in London and turn the pitch into a vegetable garden to live off whilst the Zombies are locked outside…
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
that’s a lot of doors etc to board up
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
my plan was to lock myself in a Costco or WalMart (depends on who has the better weapons)
˙˙˙buoןɐ sǝɯoɔ ɹǝʇʇǝq buıɥʇǝɯos ןıʇun 'op oʇ ǝʌɐɥ ןןıʍ sıɥʇ
by blurr1974 on Nov 3, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
The good news is, according to WWZ Zombies freeze when the temp hits 0C/32F. That means Canada should be a-ok at least five months of the year.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
ZOMBIE HEAD HOCKEY
Dion Phaneuf: turning the tunes up since '10
by thenumber14 on Nov 3, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
plenty of guns at Bass Pro Shop.
Be an Optimist Prime, not a Negatron. Certified Grabbo Lover!
Адразу Ліфс Перайсці !
by Sergei Puckizin on Nov 3, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t you worry about blank. Let me worry about blank.
Resident Capologist
Follow me on Twitter @clrkaitken. Or don't. Whatever.
I also would have accepted, “Blank? Blank? You’re not looking at the big picture!”
by general borschevsky on Nov 3, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s worth noting that the Caps have been much improved defensively this season (although that’s thanks in part to Neuvirth). They’re 5th in the league in GA/G (ahead of the Leafs) and 4th in PK%. We’ll see if it lasts, but so far the Caps have been much improved in their own end.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Nov 3, 2010 2:22 PM EDT reply actions
Redundancy fail.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Nov 3, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
z
Pro-tip
If you’re not reading THE GOALIES!!!1 in the voice of the coach of Team Iceland, you’re doing it wrong
Resident Capologist
Follow me on Twitter @clrkaitken. Or don't. Whatever.
Ovechkin will go glove hand
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
by leafer1984 on Nov 3, 2010 2:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
<3 you both
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
by leafer1984 on Nov 3, 2010 2:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But will he take a slap shot standing still at the blueline on a penalty shot?
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
I thought this article from Duhatschek on Green and Boudreau had some interesting quotes in it.
"I just wish people could see him through my eyes," said Boudreau, a touch wistfully. "He has been outstanding defensively. So now people are saying, ‘Well, how come you’re not scoring?’ I just told Mike not to change a thing. He’s our best player, game in and game out. When he missed those three games, he was sorely, sorely missed."
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:33 PM EDT reply actions
Wow….That’s a pretty solid endorsement
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Nov 3, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
When you have Ovechkin on your team? Yeah.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Tell him you love him, Bruce!
Resident Capologist
Follow me on Twitter @clrkaitken. Or don't. Whatever.
Tell him how you really feel Brucey, let it all out.
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Nov 3, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Green is so outstanding defensively that he has a -0.120 QCOMP. That’s 193rd out of 237 d-men who have played in the NHL this year.
His QTEAM is 0.446, good for 19th place out of 237 d-men.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I’m pretty sure Boudreau’s on something.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
btw
Green actually thinks he’s playing shutdown minutes too:
"Our job is to shut down top lines now and we take pride in that," Green says. And how, you may ask, is that different than before? Green averaged 25 1/2 minutes of ice time a game last season so he would have had to go out against top lines then, too.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s only played a handful of games. At this point QoC and QoT ratings are still skewed.
by red army line on Nov 3, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
And? He’s 193rd out of 237 in QCOMP.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
He’s done such a good job he’s actually managed to push down the quality of his opponents!
…
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Nov 3, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually
he’s even worse in terms of Corsi REL QoC at -0.160… so he’s not even facing worse opponents, they’re worse with respect to the rest of their teammates.
134th out of the D Men that have played a minimum of 5 games… he’s not playing tough competition in any fashion.
The reality is, if he plays against the Grabovski/MacArthur line tonight, he’d probably be eaten alive – they’re one of the top lines in the NHL from a Corsi perspective.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
please let this happen
please let this happen
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't follow advanced stats at all
so just for clarification, Corsi is the difference between shots taken and allowed is it not?
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Shot attempts, including misses, blocks, saves, and goals.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s basically +/- but with shooting attempts instead of goals.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
In a nutshell, the Corsi Number is the shot differential while a player was on the ice. This includes not just goals and shots on goal, but also shots that miss the net, and in some formulations, blocked shots. In other words, it’s the differential in the total number of shots directed at the net.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
And if you ever see Fenwick, that’s just Corsi without blocked shots.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
which is good
because shot blocks are often skewed in home rinks… biased score keepers.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
And just crappy score keepers in general. The MSG guy is awful particularly, if you remember that BtN article.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I do
DJ over at hockey analysis did a lot of work on calibrating his numbers for years… If I had the time I’d try to do the same with Corsi and such, but it’s effort… and not worth it until you have a fair bit of data (i.e. the quarter pole mark)
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Excellent, I’ve been wondering what Fenwick was.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
problem with all of this stuff is
scorekeepers are biased in every rink to some extent, and thus road numbers are the most useful, but using only road numbers isn’t really useful until the end of the year in order to get a read on large sample sizes.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Fuck I wish Grabbo would score. He should have 4 or 5 by now the way he’s played and with the bad bounces he’s got.
Be an Optimist Prime, not a Negatron. Certified Grabbo Lover!
Адразу Ліфс Перайсці !
by Sergei Puckizin on Nov 3, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
He'll break out soon
and score a few in a bunch… you don’t see a lot of guys hit posts in consecutive games the way he did in the last 2, NYR through Lundqvist’s legs and OTT off the cross bar… he’s going to score soon.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
The Caps haven’t played a load of tough teams yet. ATL twice, the Devils, MIN, CAR, CGY, BOS is about the only good squad out of the lot. Since QComp is unadjusted (and generally not as good as Corsi-computed measures) to the team competition and the sample size is tiny, I’m not sure why you’re putting too much stock in that result.
If you sort by Corsi Rel Comp, he’s like 5 names under a guy who plays for Detroit. A guy with a Swedish last name. A guy with six Norris trophies and three second-place finishes. He’s ahead of Andrei Markov (speaking of small samples) and he’s ahead of Chris Pronger by a mile. Those measurements don’t mean anything yet.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
six Norris trophies and three second-place finishes.
They give out awards for Norris runner-up? Does Mike Green have a ribbon or something on his mantlepiece?
I would really like it if the NHL awarded “Norris Trophy – Participant” to every defenseman in the league that didn’t win the Norris.
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Game 7 Preview: I wonder if Dennis Seidenberg and Marco Sturm are offended by "The Kraut Line"?l (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Nov 3, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Hahaha, that would be awesome. It was more to highlight that Nick Lidstrom has been ridiculously great and playing the really tough minutes for the Wings since forever. I hadn’t even thought of the Mike Green angle on that, to be completely honest.
But seriously, if Green is hot on Lidstrom’s heels and ahead of Markov, Pronger and Timonen in a QComp measure adjusted for team by Corsi totals, don’t you think that points to a data set that needs expanding before relevance is attached to it?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Green is a great offensive defenseman. Maybe even best in the league based on his ability to put up mad points. Nobody is arguing that. What we are arguing is that he is not the elite, complete defenseman that players you’ve mentioned like Pronger, Lidstrom, Weber, Doughty, and Keith are.
Why can’t you just be happy that you’ve got an elite offensive threat on the blue line, who shouldn’t be on the ice for tough defensive matchups?
Certified Grabbo Lover
I’m absolutely not arguing he’s anything of the sort. Suggesting he’s got the two-way game of any of those guys is patently absurd right now. Is he better in his own end than he’s made out to be? Yes, but that’s not what I was addressing. The sole point of my post is to point out, via those players, that QComp measures don’t mean anything yet, especially when a player’s missed a big chunk of games relative to the rest of the team.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s a 25 year old defender, he’s definitely done maturing as a defensive player.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Pronger, Lidstrom, Weber, Doughty, and Keith
Mature enough defensively to be among these guys in that respect?
Doughty is a generational outlier, while Keith, Pronger, and Weber all made huge strides forward at about the same age. Nick Lidstrom didn’t fully come into his own until his late 20s. As a whole, I think you’ll find that the quality of defensive play rises pretty rapidly for most players until about 30.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope you’re right re. Phaneuf.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
My read on Phaneuf is that he’s been looking for the big hit throughout his career, much like Orpik. He’s got phenomenal physical talent, for the sake of fast, skilled hockey, I hope he puts it together mentally someday soon, when he’s still in his athletic prime.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think he’ll always flawed but I hope his judgment improves.
I look at Green as a “rich man’s Kaberle” circa 2005. Kabs wasn’t bad defensively in his prime—played very well positionally, moved the puck, etc. Now that he’s lost a step he looks much worse at times and needs to be a little sheltered defensively (or paired with a monster like Schenn).
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
tee hee Monster
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn’t he play with Jeff Schultz?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Yup, and not against top lines from what I’m aware.
The Caps know what they have and seem to deploy him appropriately.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Very much so.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Generally at evens, yeah. Believe it or not, Tom Poti actually carries the shutdown load for the Caps and does a decent job of it. I hope Alzner is as advertised in the next couple of seasons and steps into the role.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
That amazes me. I guess there’s hope for almost anyone defensively.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
When Poti fucks up, he really fucks up. There’s a reason his SVON is low. But he’s generally solid, takes the tough competition and the tough zone starts.
If I had to classify him, I’d call him a tweener-shutdown guy. I don’t think he’s quite good enough to play against the good 1st lines in the league, but he’s more than good enough for most 2nd lines.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess compromises must be made in a salary cap world when you have a team capable of scoring roughly 14 goals per game, give or take.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I love reading you guys stress about your 2C when you have Ovie, Semin and Backstrom. Good Lord, the joys of worrying about who your 4th best F is going to be after Ovie, Semin and Backstrom.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, we understand that the window to win a Cup isn’t going to be open forever and Ovie isn’t going to stay young forever. I don’t think this is the year; rookies at 4/5D, no one really capable of picking up 6D, no C depth at all after Backstrom. Fleischmann singlehandedly sinks any line he plays C on and Fehr hasn’t lived up to his prior performance so far.
Anything can happen in the playoffs; if Alex Semin ignites, he’ll win the Conn Smythe. He’s outrageous when he’s on, but he absolutely can’t disappear this post-season. If he does, the Caps are sunk.
When the team is so close to having an odd-on favorite roster, all of those little pieces and little bad contracts add up.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
You guys have cap space, right? I still can’t believe you didn’t go hard at Volchenkov or Michalek.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
We have about 3.2 mil, I suspect (pray?) that’s going to be saved up for the deadline. If we hadn’t re-signed Fleischmann, we absolutely could have taken a hard run at Michalek. I wailed and gnashed my teeth when he signed with the Pens, along with Martin.
It pains me to say this, but I think they’re the favorites to come out of the East. Again.
Vomit.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
What you guys really need is Mike Komisarek.
/ducking
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Komisarek for Semin and a first, no take backs
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Not at that K, but yeah, someone like him. Someone who can push the other defenders down the Qcomp depth chart.
Green and Carlson are FA season after next, I get the sense that a lot of contract space is being hoarded to keep both of them. They both put up boxcars, so I bet they’re both real expensive. Evgeny Kuznetsov better be good.
My hope is that the long-term core is Ovie, Backstrom, Green, Schultz, Carlson, Alzner, Neuvirth + 2C and reasonable-contract-fill-ins. I think that group gives them a good chance to contend for a while, but the best chance the win the Cup is within the next couple of years, I think.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m just hoping (as you’ve implied) Semin goes UFA and we have a shot.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think GMGM wants to tie up 1/2 of the salary cap in three forwards. I pray GMGM doesn’t want to tie up the salary cap in three forwards.
Semin, when he’s on, is the best player in a Capitals sweater. If he does end up in TO, I think you’ll very much enjoy his Dr. Jekyll nights — there’s a whole lot of, “Did he really just do what I think he just did?”, like one-touching backhands to the top corner, or a wrister in the middle of a toedrag past the goalie’s earhole.
Mr. Hyde accumulates stick penalties and lazy play at an unbelievable rate.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
And a decent share of those points were even put up without Ovie.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I have been far too spoiled by the likes of Sundin and his consistency to be excited at the prospect of a Jekyll and Hyde player.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
and we already have one of them in versteeg
at least we were told that anyways. he has been far too much hyde as of late
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
What would you give up for
one Mikhail Grabovski?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Does he play C? Cuz if not, not much,
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
and he’s got some pretty good skill
His faceoff numbers aren’t great, but he’s actually a demon in puck pursuit, and his corsi numbers and corsi rel are great… most people in here (that I can think of) are fond of him.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
look
at the BtN site on the Leafs… he’s kinda hard to argue against based on how he’s played so far this year.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Then he sounds like exactly the 2C that Alex Semin needs. I don’t know what Burke would want, but I’d give up any prospect except for Kuznetsov, Johansson and that’s pretty much the end of the list, or a decent pick next year. What’s his contract status?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
I think it’d cost you the likes of Kuznetsov… since we would want prospects, and you want help right now… but I’d also look at Kugryshev and Galiev… we need some offensive skill in the pipeline
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
I think the Caps value Kuznetzsov more than other organizations do; McPhee tried to move up to draft him at 14 after Fowler and Gormley finally went off the board, but ended up getting him anyway at 26. I was hoping he’d move up to grab Tarasenko or move Fleischmann for a 2 and grab Kabanov, but I was seriously blown away by Kuznetsov’s skill in camp.
Long story short, if the price is Kuznetzsov, I doubt GMGM pulls the trigger. Gailiev is almost certainly available.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Why yes, yes he does.
Proud member of the Fredric Sjostrom Fan Club.
Kulemin, so hot right now, Kulemin
by PassivelyTruculent on Nov 3, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
You speak the truth.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m secretly hoping that Komi’s trade stock can rise on excellent play while Phaneuf is out.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
we understand that the window to win a Cup isn’t going to be open forever
What scares me, though, is that the Hershey Bears have won 2 out of the last 3 Calder Cups. I don’t know much about the Caps’ prospects, but those wins say “not bad” to me.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
That’s been on the back of AHL vets like Aucoin and Giroux. Of the other key pieces, Bourque is in the KHL, Alzner, Carlson, and Neuvirth are up with the Caps (1st pair and 1G) and Perreault has struggled with consistent effort at the NHL level.
I hope Eakin keeps developing like he has, he could be a good 3C for the team one day and I think Johansson is going to make a good 2C one day (watch him skate, his transitions will drop your jaw), but these are in the future, not now. Kuznetzsov has unreal talent; he was clearly the most skilled player on the ice at rookie camp, his style was poor-man’s Evgeni Malkin. If he keeps developing, I think the Caps snagged a 1W talent or 1C/2C talent with the 26th pick. Not too shabby.
All that said, I don’t think there’s anyone in the system with the potential to provide the kind of ELC contributions that any of Green, Backstrom or Ovechkin did and I don’t see anyone providing Semin-type value on their first RFA deal.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
They’d have to make fewer compromises if they weren’t blowing 1.1 mil a year on David Steckel, about the same for John Erskine and 700k for Tyler Sloan. Erskine is a marginal NHL player, Sloan is categorically not an NHL player and Steckel does one thing at the NHL level; faceoffs. He’s elite at that, but holy Jesus he’s bad at everything else.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re just rubbing it in, aren’t you?
Now I’m also jealous that your worst overpay is $1.1 million. Don’t get me started on combined $9MM for our #5D, #7D and a 3rd liner.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Will people feel better about paying Armstrong $3 mill when he’s on Kessel’s line?
‘Cause I’m pretty sure it’s gonna happen.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Hahahahaha.
When Armstrong comes back maybe we’ll have TWO $3MM players on our third line.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah, the worst overpay is 2.7 mil for Tomas Fleischmann as an RFA. He’s a horrendous possession player who’s boxcars are massively inflated by getting PP time with the Big-Four and regular ES shifts with Alex Semin.
The Caps have been going the wrong way in shots and Corsi for the last three seasons and frankly, it worries me. I think Boudreau may have stayed on past his effective shelf-life for a team that may need a little more control and discipline, especially defensively and on shift lengths.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Boudreau may have stayed on past his effective shelf-life for a team that may need a little more control and discipline, especially defensively and on shift lengths.
100% agreed. I think he’s taken the team pretty far from where it was when it started, but seems almost too close to his players to instill in them the discipline needed to win the cup.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought the Montreal series should’ve gotten Boudreau canned. His inability to adjust the system and get a screen set up in front of Halak was horrendous. Halak had straight visibility on 95%* of the Caps’ shots in that series.
*I made that number up, but I don’t think it’s off by much.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
I don’t think it’s off by much either. I also think the Justin Bourne was onto something when he said the Caps are the only team he’s ever seen that are worse when they try harder.
But even on the rebounds, they’d pop out to Habs or guys like Knuble and Laich couldn’t elevate them. Incredibly, unbelievably frustrating series to watch.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
For us too.
Goddamn Habs.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Fuck those froggy bastards.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Green got fat last year and had definitely lost a step. He was still very good, but not the 2008-9 version that should have won the Norris good. This off-season, he did, I shit you not, yoga, and he’s got his fluid stride back. If he can keep himself healthy, I think he’s set up for a monster season.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a lot of NHL players are doing yoga nowadays. Moksha yoga in Toronto advertises that a lot of Leafs go their. Seems like a good idea.
So far, it looks like it’s worked for Green. If you’ve got a skater who’s lost a step or bulked up too much, it’s definitely worth a look.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Belfour did yoga.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure all his powers came from bribing his way out of drunk and disorderly charges.
“I’ll give you like…a BILLION DOLLARS!”
Quite a figure on the girl with Domi there. I wonder where Belfour’s right hand really is.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Domi always has a hot chick on his arm. I have no idea why, since he’s got the same face structure as the Hulk.
Leaf player.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Where did you get this from?
Proud member of the Fredric Sjostrom Fan Club.
Kulemin, so hot right now, Kulemin
by PassivelyTruculent on Nov 3, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
haha, I ask because I know (vaguely) the origins of it
Proud member of the Fredric Sjostrom Fan Club.
Kulemin, so hot right now, Kulemin
by PassivelyTruculent on Nov 3, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a weak sauce story but
take it as a grain of salt, cuz even I don’t entirely believe the story, but back when I used to admin a leaf group on fb, some guy posted those pics saying he went to an event where they were and he took those pics.. once again weak story.
Proud member of the Fredric Sjostrom Fan Club.
Kulemin, so hot right now, Kulemin
by PassivelyTruculent on Nov 3, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The story about Recchi is that he keeps his old bones moving by doing hot yoga
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I wanna see Burke do yoga
"It reminded me a lot of when I was in Pittsburgh and we were growing together as a group. The Leafs are going through the same thing" - Colby Armstrong
I’d like to hear about it, don’t really want to see it
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I imagine there will be a lot of swearing
Proud member of the Fredric Sjostrom Fan Club.
Kulemin, so hot right now, Kulemin
by PassivelyTruculent on Nov 3, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Green isn’t amazing positionally, but he’s so light on his skates and he’s got great puck-skills. If there’s a 50/50 race, he’s 90/10 to win the puck cleanly and start it up the ice again. Now that I’m about to point it out, he’ll get burned on it tonight, but he’s good for a couple of toe-drags to start the breakout per game. It’s very, very rare to see him get hit in open ice, he just seems to step around and past people.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
He has the worst QCOMP on his own team. So much for the weak schedule argument.
Corsi rel QoC and QoT tells you how he’s producing given his opposition. No one is saying Green can’t produce.
I’m saying “Green doesn’t shut down top lines”.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
He missed both games against BOS, which is the only team they’ve played so far, other than NSH, that had consistently positive RATING, which is how QCOMP is computed.
Corsi rel QoC and QoT are computed in the same way using the Corsi Rel stat instead of rating, that’s all. It’s using Corsi instead of adjusted-plus-minus and it’s reset to the axis of the team when he was in the lineup, rather than the absolute scale.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe I’m mistaken but Corsi QoT would be the corsi computed quality of team and Corsi Rel QoT would be how he’s performing relative to that Corsi QoT.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Nah, I’m 99% certain Corsi Rel QTeam is the same thing as Corsi Q Team, just computed with Corsi Rel instead of CorsiON.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
The naming convention is definitely obscure.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
You are correct in the interpretation
it’s the average of the Relative Corsi numbers of the teammates for Corsi REL QoT, and the average of the Relative Corsi numbers of the opposition for the Corsi REL QoC.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
it's
with them on the ice, minus their numbers off the ice. If the team is superior when they’re out there, the Corsi REL number will be positive… of course on a bad team that might not mean much.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
No
they mean something, just not as much as they will at the end of the year.
For the record about Lidstrom, his Corsi REL QoC is lower because he’s playing less tough minutes as the team shifts away from relying on him defensively.
Even Jakub Kindl’s spot as top on the team isn’t that huge a distinction in Detroit since he’s sitting at 0.922… they balance things out pretty heavily in Detroit from a D perspective.
In Washington the top of the list in difficulty is Jeff Schultz at 1.063. In Toronto it’s Luke Schenn at 0.567… the variation is pretty small across the NHL right now to be honest.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Pronger is the Flyers go-to shutdown guy. We’re still talking about a really small sample here, one that will get a lot more meaningful as the season progresses. They mean something, but they don’t mean much and you really can’t form a conclusion based on them yet. Brian Fahey is a call-up and is facing a huge Corsi Rel QComp number, despite being hidden in his own end. The sample size simply isn’t there yet.
Lidstrom is still way down towards the bottom in zone start. He’s still their shutdown D, whether he’s old or not, and he still does a really good job at it.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say the fact that they've played 9 games
and he’s sitting in the middle of a group that has Stuart and Janik at the bottom (which makes more sense to me) that he’s unlikely to somehow creep ahead of those two by a long shot.
Stuart is more of a shut down guy than Lidstrom, and his offensive skills will raise his Zone Start numbers because he’ll be out there on Offensive key faceoffs also, which will bump his numbers up.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Lidstrom’s lead the team in Corsi Rel QoC as far back as the data goes, until there’s a larger sample, I’m not buying he’s anything but their shutdown player, as well as their best offensive defender.
Lidstrom is in the discussion for best D after Bobby Orr. He may be the guy, it may be Doug Harvey. It’s not a surprise to me that a guy as smart as he is can continue at a high level even at his relatively advanced age.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm willing to put Lidstrom
as tops in the generation, but the Bobby Orr comparison is kind of absurd… he doesn’t even come close to controlling a game in the same fashion.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
No one touches Bobby Orr. I think #4 was the best hockey player in history.
I’m saying he’s in the discussion for next at bat after Orr.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
ok that I'll acknowledge
and agreed on Orr being #1 ever.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Holzer
Curious. About a week ago I asked a couple people on twitter who follow the Marlies which D-man they had been most impressed by and they said (after Finger—sigh) it was Aulie, not Holzer.
Wonder if they intend for him to actually get into games or just warm the press box. If the latter you’d think they’d have called up Lashoff—or is he not waiver exempt?
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
same reason Caputi got the call and not Kadri
development of your best prospects
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
But isn’t Holzer as much of a prospect as Aulie or Mikus?
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d say Aulie>Holzer>Mikus, but the difference probably isn’t too much
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
Holzer is something like a 7th round pick, Aulie is a Burkian acquisition
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Burke seems to favour players he has acquired.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
they are willing to risk stalling ones development and not the other
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Holzer has also played professionally in Europe and in the Olympics.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
Let’s bring up Mueller too.
Just kidding, the Olympic experience in particular should in theory be helpful if he gets into games.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
and he might grow an arm out of his ass so he can read and wipe at the same time
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Holzer is also
a year and 4 months older than Aulie, so his development is probably less likely to stall if he doesn’t play as many games in a row…
and don’t forget Europeans are used to larger time off between games… I don’t know how much that factors in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they consider that fact.
Letting Holzer sit in the press box and watch some NHL hockey with the help of some GM/Coach types beside him to point out what he needs to keep tabs on wouldn’t hurt him w.r.t. the North American game either.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Dreger was just talking about the possibility of Aulie coming up on TSN and said something along the lines of “Don’t be surprised to see him get in while Phaneuf is out, but I’m told he needs a few more games in the AHL before he’s ready”
No explanation or anything but I wonder what exactly that means. Maybe Holzer’s just adjusted to Leafs system quicker.
Lashoff isn’t waiver exempt.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Bummer. He’d be a perfect press box warmer.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
wish we’d kept him up over Finger to start the season.
I think he’s also injured right now.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
he is not, nor is Richmond waiver exempt. I’m not sure Aulie is any further along than Holzer at the moment. I think it has to do with Holzer being a right handed shot.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
Good answer.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Aulie, Mikus, Richmond, Lashoff all shoot left. Holzer and Gysbers shoot right.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
Is there a place to find this info? I never remember who shoots which way.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I just realized that nobody should consult this ever, not only does it have Aulie listed incorrectly as shooting right (how the hell do they screw that up), but don’t even have Holzer listed on the roster.
he’s a fucking wookie on skates, he can shoot how ever the hell he wants
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
he’ll tear your arms off if he loses
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Out with the old Keith, in with the new
Key to a point shot is getting it by the first defender
Fire Keith Acton and hire Keith Aulie be our new special teams coach. This kid gets it.
Certified Grabbo Lover
man, he really is a wookie on skates
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Nov 3, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Washington, usually believed to view defense as an afterthought, is actually surprisingly decent in the shots against category only giving up 29.1 a game. Though I believe that to have more to do with having the puck in the offensive zone for most of the game as opposed to solid defense.
The best defense is never allow your opponent the puck. Detroit’s been doing that for more than a decade now and Chicago followed the same blueprint to a Cup last season, as did the Pens before the ‘Hawks. It doesn’t matter how you accumulate that shooting differential, just that you do.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 3:41 PM EDT reply actions
The NHL used to keep track of zone time for games, but no longer do. If they did, I’d wager that the Caps would have an usually high shots against per minute in their defensive zone compared to most teams.
Certified Grabbo Lover
The Caps haven’t been very good at evens this season in terms of the possession metrics and you’re probably right about the shots-against/zone-time. But that’s not what I’m arguing. I’m saying shot-denial is shot-denial, whether you get it by cycling 200 feet from your own net or from being an elite team in your own zone.
It doesn’t really matter how, but rather how many.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s completely skirting the issue. You’re essentially saying “Mike Green is good at defense because the puck is in the offensive zone when he plays.” What we’re asking is, “What happens when the puck comes into the defensive zone? Can he shut it down against top opposition?” You, or anyone for that matter, have yet to answer that question straight on.
Certified Grabbo Lover
I’m pretty sure I said above that he’s better than he’s made out to be in his own end, but putting him with the elite two-way guys on defense is “patently absurd”.
If you’re talking about conventional, 1-on-1-type defense or making the perfect read, he’s average or slightly above. No more than that, but he’s not a walking disaster. His speed, however, lets him get out of the zone with puck on his stick, or win more than his fair share of 50/50 pucks. I am not, in any way, suggesting that he’s a guy like Jan Hejda or Marc Staal, who’s going to shut down the top line. He isn’t.
What he does do is play well against the forecheck and make sure the break out happens. That limits chances against when he’s in his own zone. You can call that defense, you can call that the beginning of offense, I don’t really care. Green is an elite player that 29 other GMs would smash their phones dialing McPhee if he ever became available. He’s highly effective, even if it isn’t in a way that’s conventional.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not, in any way, suggesting that he’s a guy like Jan Hejda or Marc Staal, who’s going to shut down the top line. He isn’t.
That’s all we’re saying thanks for agreeing.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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He doesn’t get a lot of attention because he plays in Columbus, but Jan Hejda is a very, very good defensive defenseman. Nary a lick of offense to be seen, but very smart and solid in his own end.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
If you say so.
Just when I think “shut-down defender”, my mind doesn’t race to Jan Hejda.
Resident Capologist
Follow me on Twitter @clrkaitken. Or don't. Whatever.
I was reaching for guys I hadn’t already named or been named by others. Robin Regher isn’t the best example anymore, he’s really fallen off a cliff over the last year or so. Maybe Chris Phillips? He and Volchenkov played ultra-tough minutes last season. So did Michalek, come to think of it.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Michalek, Scuderi, Orpik, Staal…
Resident Capologist
Follow me on Twitter @clrkaitken. Or don't. Whatever.
Orpik definitely does not fit that mold and I mentioned Staal further down in the thread.
If Orpik were a smarter player, his type of game would lend itself to shutdown, but as it is, his primary specialties are playing reasonably okay hockey when he’s not putting himself waaaay out of position for a big hit and collecting dumb penalties via dirty play. I absolutely hate his head-hunting ass and laughed for a long time when he surrendered the back-breaker against the Habs because he was too busy crosschecking his guy to the net to cover the slot.
Phillips, Michalek, Staal, Scuderi, Mitchell, Ballard, all of those guys basically fit the mold I was thinking of, tough-minute guys who aren’t going to give you much on offense, but provide outsized contributions in their own ends.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Hall Gill? :)
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s super effective in the playoffs when the refs stop calling interference. He’s a pylon, otherwise. He got absolutely torched on Columbus’s first goal last night.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Cary price just kinda waived at that shot too
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, yeah, but it was a 2-on-1 and the shooter was Rick Nash. I’m gonna give Price the benefit of the doubt on that one.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I wont
mainly because he’s Cary Price
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You mean Smokey McFornicate
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Keith Ballard?
Streeeeeetching much aren’t we?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
He took the tough minutes and tough starts for the Panthers, who have been and continue to be a very bad team.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
He took the tough minutes and tough starts for the Panthers
Just because he did it, doesn’t mean he is good at it
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
I’ll concede the point.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
He shuts down higher brain function in his own team’s goalies.
Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Nov 3, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Undoubtably.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Jan Hejda
is one of the best shut down D men in the NHL.
book it.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Uh, no. Not like that at all, because Jan Hejda is actually good and not signed by JFJ.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, Finger was a Fletcher signign
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Is that better or worse?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s technically correct, which is all that matters.
Resident Capologist
Follow me on Twitter @clrkaitken. Or don't. Whatever.
But no seriously, which GM would you consider worse? Don’t know enough of the lore to make the judgment myself.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
JFJ was stupid.
2008 Cliff Fletcher appears to have been senile.
It’s hard to choose.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
JFJ was definitely the worse GM. Fletcher would have done much better had JFJ not handcuffed him by giving NTC’s to every player and the cleaning staff
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
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by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Fletcher still made some terrible decisions of his own. He actually did fairly well dealing with the NTC/NMCs, I think.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah signing Finger and Frogren were pretty dumb decisions. Still, I’d like to have seen what he would have done if McCabe, Kubina, Kaberle, Tucker and Sundin didn’t have NTC’s
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure that would be scary too, he could have traded them for some really bad prospects or picks that were used to draft busts.
McCabe got us 26 games of Van Ryn, Kubina got us Exelby, Sundin got us nothing and Tucker got us a few more years of buyout. Without NTC’s there’s no way we’d get less than that
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d’ve HATED Sundin for Higgins and 1st.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I would have hated it at the time but we lost him for nothing in the end and saw him in a Canucks jersey the next season. Which is worse?
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Getting nothing and having him play in the city I live in.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, but that obviously didn’t happen. I know I’m playing the hindsight card but looking back on it, losing Sundin at the end of the season was a hard pill to swallow
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Who’s becoming a pretty solid player this year.
If it’s true then it’s even harder to take
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t he playing 1C or 2C for the Isles?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
How’d it end up going to the Islanders?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure how nashville got it...
Draft pick rights traded from Nashville Predators with round 2 pick in the 2008 draft (Aaron Ness) to New York Islanders for round 1 pick in the 2008 draft (Colin Wilson)
Who wants to hear a funny ass joke?
Huh?
Sundin would have gotten traded in 2008. Montreal moved their 08 first rounder in the Calgary deal for Tanguay.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Of course, but he still walked away on us at season’s end
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
yup, he most certainly would have signed with the Leafs again, had they offered
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
The Kubina trade also got the Leafs Komisarek. Also didn’t Burke make that trade?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
look at leafer
throwing down the knowledge
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
He did, but weren’t we offered Setoguchi and a1st for Kubina? I may be wrong though
Don't think, it hurts the team!
"Kneel before Todd!!"
Wes Werbowy>Chuck Norris
At the trade deadline. When they ended up with Brian Campbell instead.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
no
it wasn’t Setoguchi
˙˙˙buoןɐ sǝɯoɔ ɹǝʇʇǝq buıɥʇǝɯos ןıʇun 'op oʇ ǝʌɐɥ ןןıʍ sıɥʇ
by blurr1974 on Nov 3, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah I have no idea what it was for but that’s when it was
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
rumor was McLaren
that would have been worse than XLB I think
˙˙˙buoןɐ sǝɯoɔ ɹǝʇʇǝq buıɥʇǝɯos ןıʇun 'op oʇ ǝʌɐɥ ןןıʍ sıɥʇ
by blurr1974 on Nov 3, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
This I remember. Kubina for Kyle McLaren.
Dont forget Stuart who was in the ATL deal went to Calgary with Stralman for primeau and a 2nd, then that 2nd got traded for torontos own 2nd. Then THAT got traded to Boston for Kessel.
I think…
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Yep our 2nd pick was known as the “Original six pick” minus visits to Detroit and NY Rangers.
Proud member of the Fredric Sjostrom Fan Club.
Kulemin, so hot right now, Kulemin
by PassivelyTruculent on Nov 3, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
ah ok
i was thinking he meant when Kubina got traded to the thrashers for cap space and broken dreams
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 3, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
That…kinda stings. Granted, it’d be almost a second, but there are still some great players available in that range.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I’m just using hindsight to show what we got from our NTC players
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Hindsight? s
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Gah never mind, I’m going back to my hole
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Hindsight shows us we got Komisarek from the freed up cap space
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
I’m not so sure. Fletcher’s moves in just a few months were pretty awful: Hollwegg, Finger, Stempniak…who knows what he would have been capable if he had a five year reign like JFJ.
And don’t get me wrong, I despise the JFJ era, pretty much everything that doughboy does is wrong.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
I’m not disagreeing, but despite that I can’t call him worse than the guy who traded Rask for Raycroft and gave everyone who asked nicely a NTC
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Kulemin, Kilger, Gunnarson, Kilger and Moore.
Thats it
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Kilger as a player for us was actually a pretty solid third-fourth liner. Fletcher fleeced Florida by trading him for a third round pick
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
That being because he decided to have an emotional breakdown and retire, of course
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
JFJ was stupid
Cliff Fletcher was senile
Anyone who hires a stupid and/or senile person to be their GM is stupid
Therefore, Richard Peddie is stupid.
Logic solves everything.
I agree with this conclusion.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with this agreement
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Too late. It’s out there now, we all know you said it. Once you say a thing like that you can’t take it back.
Don't think, it hurts the team!
"Kneel before Todd!!"
Wes Werbowy>Chuck Norris
That’s a dozen Hail Wendals for you.
Don't think, it hurts the team!
"Kneel before Todd!!"
Wes Werbowy>Chuck Norris
I was drawing the parallel between the statement about Hejda and the justifications that Fletcher and Wilson gave for the Finger signing.
Finger was signed by the 2008 version of Cliff Fletcher.
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way, this was more tangential than direct disagreement. Hockey doesn’t break cleanly into discrete phases, like baseball or football.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
cycling 200 feet from your own net
Which, I might add, the Caps need to do a lot more of.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
An NHL hockey rink is 200ft from end boards to end boards with 11feet from end boards to goal line. Now if we assume that Green is cycling in one corner (radius of 28ft) and that we’re measuring from the exacty middle of the goalmouth at ice level that would mean that the farthest Green could ever be with the puck from his own goal while on the ice surface is 189.763 feet.
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/477416/Max_Cycling_Distance.JPG
Certified Grabbo Lover
Duly noted for future reference.
Consider prior redacted and re-written as “The Capitals need to maximize the distance of the puck from their own net while maintaining possession via cycling in their opponents’ corners”.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way
Want to see a player who’s softer than a pillow made out of charmin stitched with silk? Watch Tomas Fleischmann’s ginger self avoid the boards like it’ll give him a soul. God, I hate that guy.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
I laughed at this, a lot
If you don't love Tomas Kaberle you're a terrible person.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Nov 3, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
It makes me feel good to know that fans of other teams hate their players sometimes too.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Nov 3, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
That was freaking hilarious.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 3, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Slummin’ in here from Japers’ Rink. PPP is a quality operation as always and your quality fanbase helps earn me rooting for the Leafs some when they’re not playing the Caps.
Hope for a good game for both sides where best quality play wins the day.
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
Hope for a good game for both sides where best quality play wins the day.
That’s a long way of saying that you hope the Caps win :)
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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by PPP on Nov 3, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you seen them this season? Horrendous at 5s, getting lucky and bailed out by their goalie.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 3, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
So like the Leafs
except we play ok D, and can’t score… should be an exciting game without any goals… yay.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Hey, Minnesota straight beat us so it’s not totally saying that. You can also read that as saying that I hope the pillow you refer to up there doesn’t screw up and Semin doesn’t end up in the box and Green continues to play sound defense and our goaltending doesn’t turn into a pumpkin and all of the other ways that the Caps have recently proven that they are capable of beating themselves.
Watching them get soundly beaten by Atlanta to open the season was surprising and I’m still adjusting to this new PP starved somewhat more defensively responsible Caps squad.
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?



































