How Cup Winners are Built, or Why Brian Burke's Way is the Wrong Way
July 1st is our draft.
This was a comment made by Brian Burke late last season when asked about what he'd do in the off-season without a 1st or 2nd round pick in the draft. This is the cornerstone idea behind the so called "Brian Burke Rebuild". Forget a slow rebuild based on embracing Tank Nation, drafting elite talent high in the draft, and filling in the gaps to create a winner. Burke wants to win now and believes that Toronto doesn't have the patience for a Chicago or Pittsburgh rebuild encompassing 5 to 6 years of bottom feeding. [Editor's Note: It has now been 2,401 days since the Leafs have played a playoff date. Patience!!!1]
Many on PPP and other Leafs blogs have called for others to give Burke some more time as he's only 2 years into his time as GM and has 4 more years until fruit would begin to bear. [Editor's Note: Ron Wilson said it would take six years when he got here. Burke should have heeded that call.] Now I'd be completely behind giving Burke more time if I felt he was on the right track with the team, but I don't feel that he is. Let me tell you why; Cup winners are not built through free agency. They simply aren't and any belief that they can be is a wrong one. As you may have gleaned from my not so subtle hints earlier, teams win Cups with their own drafted talent as the centerpiece of their teams.
Now how can I make such a bold statement? Well because I've done the research and compiled the stats. I looked at the rosters for the last 20 Cup Winners (Edmonton through Chicago) and found out who their Top 6 scoring forwards were (regular season), who their Top 4 defenseman by TOI/G and points were (regular season), and who their starting goalies were. Then I ran the numbers to see which of those players were drafted by their club, which were acquired via trades, which were acquired veteran free agents, which were signed as free agents out of college or Europe, and which were acquired on waivers.
The Spreadsheet - Cup Winners And How They Are Built
So going back for the past 20 years, a Cup winning team will have have a Top 6 forwards core like so: 3 fowards drafted, 2 acquired via trades, and 1 acquired in free agency of some sort. The only teams with less than 2 of their Top 6 being drafted? Montreal with 0 in 1993 (4 via trades) and NYR with 1 in 1994 (4 via trades). Again, as I alluded to, the Brian Burke mantra of drafting through free agency is a fallacy. Only two teams have won the Cup in the past 20 years with more than 2 free agents in their top 6; Pittsburgh in 2009 and Anaheim in 2007. (Of note: For the Ducks, only Teemu Selanne was acquired by Brian Burke.) Right now the Leafs Top 6 is composed thusly: 2 drafted (Nazem Kadri and Nikolai Kulemin), 3 traded for (Phil Kessel, Kris Versteeg, and Mikhail Grabovski) and 1 free agent (Clarke MacArthur).
So what about defense? Well going back 3 of the Top 4 are either drafted or traded for (1.65 and 1.75) with the last player being a free agent. In fact, the only team to win the Cup in the last 20 years with more than 1 free agent defenseman were the Oilers in 1990 with Hubby and Gregg. The only teams to not have drafted a Top 4 defenseman? The Penguins in 92 and 93 and Burke's Ducks in 2007. And of those Top 4, only Scott Neidermayer was acquired in free agency. Right now the Leafs Top 4 is 2 drafted (Luke Schenn and Tomas Kaberle) and 2 free agents (Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin). If you think ahead to next year, only Schenn will be a drafted Top 4 defenseman.
Goalies however are a total crapshoot, either you draft them or you trade for them. But what you don't do is sign them in free agency as only 3 out of 20 got their top netminder that way, and really Chris Osgood was drafted by Detroit before they re-signed him as a free agent. The exception yet again? Brian Burke's 2007 Ducks who got Giguere as a free agent. [Author's Note: This is what happens when you ask PPP to review your work.]
This all means that if you want to win the Cup, you should probably build your team primarily via the draft, not free agency, and trade for the final pieces needed to make a run at the Cup. Brian Burke and his 2007 Ducks are the anomaly here and I think that bucking of tradition is coming back to bite the Maple Leafs in the butt. He got lucky being made GM of that team with Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Andy McDonald, Chris Kunitz, and Dustin Penner already in the system and having the cap space to be able to sign Scott Niedermayer and trade for Chris Pronger (He should also thank Edmonton's weather lady), but because of that luck he thinks he has a valid team building philosophy even though the past 20 years have proven that to not be the case. Now again Burke is attempting his free agency building scheme to the Leafs, and because a core of young skilled players wasn't already in place, the whole thing has fallen flat on its face. And with the current two year loss in 1st round picks, it doesn't look like the Leafs will be able to pick themselves back up for a long time.
Burke needs a change in philosophy or the Leafs need a change in the front office.
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Leafs are the youngest team in the NHL. Must be all those UFAs. Wait, what?
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 10:47 AM EST reply actions 8 recs
age /= potential.
hell, why don’t we go and sign a bunch of bantam players. that’ll ensure we’ll be awesome in about 10 years, right?
Fire Ron Wilson!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Nov 30, 2010 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Would've worked
With Tavares.
Smoke Weed Every Day.
by Archimedies on Nov 30, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
a first-overall pick…?
Fire Ron Wilson!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Nov 30, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
He wouldn't have been
If we’d signed him when he was a bantam.
Smoke Weed Every Day.
by Archimedies on Nov 30, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe we should demote Kessel and Phaneuf and call up Jeff Ware and Luca Cereda! After all, we need our draft picks in the lineup to win, right?
My point is, this article is not really all that helpful. At teh end of the day, it’s just more pants p*ssing about the Kessel deal. I’d like the two firsts back too, but you have to deal with the team the way it is, with a good goalie, a decent, overpaid D, and tons of holes up front, not worry about how the 1990 Oilers won the Cup.
Brian Burke should be worried about adding a #1 C and another winger who can score, not about whether he’s reached some golden proportion of draft picks on the roster.
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No, it’s not pants pissing about the Kessel deal. It’s a commentary on how Burke bucked traditional team building once before, got lucky, and won a Cup. And how that has now got him thinking he’s figured out a different way to build a Cup winning team when really he hasn’t and the Leafs are paying for it.
Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Nov 30, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think that’s a solid point, but why not also look at how he built the Canucks who are a pretty successful club.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
They canned him because they couldn’t get over the hump for 4 seasons, losing in the 1st round 3 times.
Certified Grabbo Lover
A lot of his pieces are still there, same with Nonis.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
But didn’t they can him due to a power struggle with a new owner?
by Bobby Paradise on Nov 30, 2010 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
When it comes down to it he lucked into Pronger. Seriously, Pronger for Lupul, Smid, a late 2nd, and a late first. That’s one of the biggest heists of the past 20 years and you can’t count on something like that ever happening again.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
It was a heist because Lowe is stupid but Burke had the nuts to identify that move as vital and to go after it. In that case it worked out great. Sometimes gambles like that don’t…
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Like refusing to give up Steen for Pronger back in the JFJ days…
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Oh God.
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I had that put outta my mind, briefly. Now it’s back. Thanks mf
/bang
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by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I give him credit for taking the jewel being handed to him but the point is you can’t count on it happening again. I’m sure he thought Phaneuf was Pronger v 2.0 but he isn’t.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
are there more ‘unexpected trades’ than ‘generational talents drafted first overall’?
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
I don’t know. But it’s easier to seek out the latter. The former all you can do is hoard cap space and pray.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
kessel for seguin is a trade that is justifiable, and this coming draft doesn’t have any top 3 players that really jump out at you so just relax
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by Yotes Lover on Nov 30, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Brian Burke should be worried about adding a #1 C and another winger who can score, not about whether he’s reached some golden proportion of draft picks on the roster.
Where’s he going to get a #1 C and a scoring winger?
Free agency? Everyone locks up their elite talent.
Trade? What do the Leafs have to offer up? I’ll bet the only thing Burke hears in trade talks is Schenn, Schenn, Schenn.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
Brian Burke should be worried about adding a #1 C and another winger who can score
How exactly is he supposed to do that? Free-agency? It should be pretty easy to sign the Sedins Marleau Thornton Kovulchuk Cammaleri Carter Semin I guess?
Fire Ron Wilson!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Nov 30, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
I dunno, but if you freak out about it enough I bet it’ll happen faster.
How will Burke get what he needs? Draft, trade, free agency. If he can’t get it done, he’ll get fired.
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How will Burke get what he needs? Draft, trade, free agency. If he can’t get it done, he’ll get fired.
Hmmm…. so let’s see here. We’ve eliminated all three as options for getting elite forwards.
Draft? Leafs won’t finish low enough to draft a Tavares or Stamkos.
Free Agency? Not an option.
Trade? Not without giving up whatever bright spots we have, like Kadri or Schenn, which defeats the purpose.
Solution? Burke needs to get fired for the Leafs to win the Cup, which is the point I made that you flamed me for.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Where does it say the odds of the next guy are any better than Burke’s?
The Islanders have been making high draft picks most of this decade and they have two first-round exits to show for it.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
It should be noted that we have, I think, a pretty good scouting staff and the budget to hire the best people to select and nurture prospects. Unlike the Islanders I think we’d have a good record with first round picks if we kept them (and didn’t rush them).
Lies. All lies.
by betterforsome on Nov 30, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
exactly. also, the point of the article is that a winner is built through a mix of drafting lottery picks AND free agency/trades. so you still need competent management, which the Islanders are kinda lacking right now.
but the lottery picks are still crucial.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
That’s why I think the saddest part of Burke’s reign is that his long-term moves are more often good but his short-term ones are more often bad and they are killing his long-term plans.
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Free Agency? Not an option.
Um, why?
Trade? Not without giving up whatever bright spots we have, like Kadri or Schenn, which defeats the purpose.
We had to give up so much to get Phaneuf, right?
Ick. I wish they hadn’t dealt for Phaneuf. I’d rather have Hagman than Armstrong and I’d take picks and prospects for White and Stajan.
Burke’s UFA work has been spotty (to put it kindly).
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
yeah he scored a hat trick the other night.. now wait, he didn’t,he’s a stay at home defenseman.
like i said, do you even watch the games?
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Stay at home defensemen are important pieces, too.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
by Bower Power on Nov 30, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
So he’s useless because he doesn’t score goals, good to know.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
nope, you’re the dumbass. what’s the critical shortage on this team? Defence? Are the Leafs losing because they’re giving up too many goals per game?
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Alright
Settle down. Scoring is clearly a problem but saying Aulie’s not good because he doesn’t score a hat trick isn’t really that bright.
Till – Play nice.
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by fair_n_hite_451 on Nov 30, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
So, you’d rather have Stajan back at 4M a year to be worse than Grabovski… instead of a 21 yr old D with shutdown potential. And you want to tell me how to build a winner.
Put down the crack pipe.
To be fair to Stajan
he’s 3rd in the NHL at PTS/60 at even strength amongst forwards with 10 games played and over 10 minute in ice time per game.
Weird huh?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Who said anything about having him back?
His deal expired at the end of 09-10. So did White’s and Meyers’. The only one we were stuck with long term was Hagman, for 2 more years at $3M. Which is not terrible for a 20-goal man.
It’s certainly better than 4 years of Phaneuf at $6.5 million.
right, and with just Hagman, where are the Leafs now? are they better?
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Well we’d have more Finnish
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
Gentlemen. Let’s both take it easy. We’re all on the same team here.
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it’s criminal that this comment isn’t green and rec’d 1000+ times
˙˙˙buoןɐ sǝɯoɔ ɹǝʇʇǝq buıɥʇǝɯos ןıʇun 'op oʇ ǝʌɐɥ ןןıʍ sıɥʇ
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
I know Aulie came over in the trade. But if Phaneuf was the cost, I’ll pass.
I also figure the Leafs prospect depth, less Aulie, would balance out with whatever Burke was able to get elsewhere for Stajan and White.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Phaneuf’s looking more and more like a 2/3 on a contender, not a #1.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Even with Phaneuf at the top of his game, the Leafs still aren’t cup winners. And they also gave up a lot.
As mf37 points out, Stajan and Hagman’s departure left gaping holes, or have you not seen those five shutouts.
Do you even watch the games?
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Even with Phaneuf at the top of his game, the Leafs still aren’t cup winners.
OH NOES BURN EVERYTHING. ONE PLAYER DID NOT DELIVER A CUP.
Try living in the real world, not NHL11.
I’m not even gonna dignify yr apparent point that we should have kept Matt Stajan.
No, my point was that Stajan and Hagman had scoring talent, and the Leafs are worse in PPG then last year’s team, which already had struggles scoring.
So the point was that we got Phaneuf, but we gave up too much in terms of even the mediocre goal scoring talent we had. So the net benefit of the trade is zero.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Really?
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
We traded a bunch of players besides White who were not gonna be part of the next Leafs contender, for a guy who could be a key contributor to it, and a good prospect. It was an excellent trade.
One of the rare successful pump and dump’s by the Leafs organization.
20 miles to Legoland!
by nhlcheapshot on Nov 30, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
newsflash, the Leafs will not be a contender with Phaneuf either.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
There’s that crystal ball again. See you in 2014, I guess.
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you really think the Leafs will be making a run to the Finals before Phaneuf’s contract is up in 2014?
it’s not looking into a crystal ball to say no. it’s an educated guess, one that I’m confident in.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
As I said, if you’re so confident, don’t bother watching. Oh, lemme know who wins the Cup this year, huh? I’ve got student loans to pay off.
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Student loans my ass. do you even understand elementary logic?
Can you say with certainty Florida won’t win the cup this year? Yes. Hell, I’d even put big money on them not making the playoffs.
Can you say that Washington will win the Cup? No. They’re no the same thing. Why?
Because MANY teams can NOT win the cup, but only ONE CAN.
Go back to school, your degree is worthless.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
The PhD you got in soothsaying, with minors in faulty logic and shitting yourself on the internet seems to be really paying off though.
Could you pass along the matchbook that you found your alma mater with? Or does your mom need on the computer now?
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
lol wut?
Dion Phaneuf: turning the tunes up since '10
by thenumber14 on Nov 30, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
General consensus one year ago:
“This team sucks, they have no valuable pieces, Burke needs to blow shit up.”
—- BURKE BLOWS SHIT UP——
General consensus one year later:
“Burke gave up a bunch of valuable pieces for nothing! Imagine how good this team would be with Antropov, Poni, Hagman, Stajan, Blake, and White”
/bangs head against wall repeatedly.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
by daoust on Nov 30, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
When
will we be satisfied?
I also remember that Kessel was a key cog when we got him… now he’s not because we didn’t draft him?
All of this is over the top… I think people are being ridiculous.
We’re 4 wins ahead of last year at this stage, the team is younger and better…
people need to relax.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Gustavvson is pretty darn good and you’ve got him for another year at a great price.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
And
Rynnas and Scrivens and Reimer… our goaltending is set… and we only drafted 1 of them??? HOW DARE WE!
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Burke will probably build a cup winner with no draft picks on it just to piss everyone off. He’d love that.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
I find this whole
discussion absurd.
There’s a lot of teams that aren’t going to win the cup this year, and a lot of GMs that never have… does that mean they’re all following the “WRONG MODEL!”
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
The only “model” that’s of any consequence if the one we agreed upon in the summer.
When elite offensive talent become available, you get it. Draft, free agency, or trade. Just get it.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Yep
and it’s not available yet… so why are we freaking out? We all know it’s not available on every street corner…
this is just so over the top.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
I dont think you are angry enough that the leafs are 3 wins out of a playoff spot
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
People weren’t calling Versteeg “Verstupid” at the beginning of the year, that’s for sure.
Fan bases are fickle. Habs fans will turn on Price as soon as he fucks up, but we do the same things with our players too.
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I called him Verstupid because he took a mind-boggling penalty at a crucial point of an important game and it torched us.
I stand by my statement that on Friday he was Verstupid and it’s not my fault his last name lends itself to these monikers.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Hey I thought that was a stupid penalty too.
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a good last name.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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When will we be satisfied? Seriously? We’re on a worse pace than last year.
I’ll be satisfied when I have to reason to believe we’ll be a Cup contender in the foreseeable future. We’re not there.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
No we aren't
This is a half-truth.
We are 8-11-3… last year after 22 games we were 4-11-7.
We are not on a worse pace than we were at this time last year.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
I said worse pace, not worse record. The two are different.
And see below—why do you assume our pace will improve? I don’t think you can assume after 22 games it will worsen or improve. We are what we are right now—a 71 pt pace club.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
This is the point. The Record and the Pace are the same thing…
8-11-3 = 19 points in 22 games.
4-11-7 = 15 points in 22 games.
What is a better pace? 19/22 or 15/22?
this
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
This is a great comment but only partially right.
The bigger issue is that Burke didn’t do enough to shield the kids and we’re paying for it.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Did a TSN commenter find his way here?
Dion Phaneuf: turning the tunes up since '10
by thenumber14 on Nov 30, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
First, nice article even though I don’t completely agree with all the points but none the less, an enjoyable read. I wonder how many younger stars like Kessel will pull the same thing with their respective teams. I am talking rare but young stars or at least their agents really have teams at their mercy once their ELC is up. If a young star, say Traves or Stamkos doesn’t want to be in Tampa or the Isle and want to play for another team. It can come down to I want “X” amount to be here and if not I’m out. so free agency is and will always be an unknown.
We don’t know much about what will definitely happen in the future but we can always reference the past as a barometer but in in the NHL, the past NHL is so different than the “new” NHL. I see it as so many things in motion its hard to pin point exactly what the best method is so a mix of all makes the most (safest) bet to me. It would be great if the Leafs had more of their own draft selections playing on the team but that isn’t the current management’s fault. What we have seen by what and who they drafted the past two drafts, don’t look too bad. I can definitely see some of those picks eventually suiting up for the Buds.
But one thing that has been omitted is the role of bottom pairings. I don’t believe it is only the stars on the team (top six) that play over their heads but rather the bottom six like players that realize that this could be their last chance since careers of bottom six is a lot less than the stars on the team so they are usually the ones that sick out in my mind as players that take their game to the next level. Every year we see this time and time again… don’t get me wrong, the stars turn up their game play too but they are supposed to since they are the stars not scrubs.
I still think this accelerated rebuild is necessary for the organization since we can all agree that the cupboards were bare and in two years we can’t expect those cupboards to be fully restocked but so far its a lot better than one can expect to this point. We are on the way there but still ways out. That will take time as we only really have one time a year (baring trades) to add to that pool – the draft as in making the best of all rounds. And as a side note, I think all teams try to draft whom the think the best player available is and in more times than not, not a star. So to argue that stars only can be found in the first round is a bit misleading but more common than not.
As for the big club, you can say the same and since there really wasn’t anything here to write home about but we are slowly adding to that too. The fastest way is via free agency or trades and that’s what has to happen until we have a foundation in the pipeline to add to the big club internally. And the players Burke is getting are young still developing players in hopes he can find a core that will gel together especially when some of the picks start turning into players he can insert into the lineup in a couple of years time. The young team we are seeing now is something a fan like me hopes that a handful will be our core but that’s something we wont be able to see in a couple of years time, not now, not after only two years.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
You think any young stars like Stamkos or Tavares would actually become available at 22 or 23? Doubtful. Let’s face it….if Boston really wanted to keep Kessel, they would have done so. They didn’t view him as a vital piece to the future of their team and moved him. It was an incredibly rare occurrence.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
frankly, I am totally shocked we havnt heard more about Stamkos’ new life time deal
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
See also: Joe Thornton. It must be a Boston thing.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
It’d be a trade. Possibly involving first round picks.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Obviously
since they’ve won so many cups since, they knew what they were doing?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
We are in no position to mock records of consistent playoff clubs.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
Uhm ya we are. Any team that is up 3-0 in the playoffs and manages to lose that series, uhm that grounds for mockery. Sorry.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
I’d trade Boston’s 09/10 season (not to mention this year) for ours every day of the week.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Yup, that really hurt right up until draft day.
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Nov 30, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
Even if they won’t extend, the club controls them through the RFA years through arbitration (assuming that gets included in the next CBA, but let’s assume it does for the moment).
Stamkos would have a horrific arb ruling, but the club could elect to keep him on a series of 1-year deals.
Now that they have competent management in TBL, there’s no way in hell they let Stamkos walk away, though.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Birky, I see you read the first paragraph and misinterpreted the word wonder (as in what if – a remote possibility) as me stating something as fact such as Stamkos bolting the bolts. The truth is who knows. The money might be good enough that a young star would over look things and settle. How do we know if any player that is turning into the age where he has to think long term which includes where he wants to live his life and family in. Maybe the current city isn’t his first choice so a move might be in mind especially when he is allowed to go. I not saying this will happen but there are other things in play since after all players are people too.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
The possibility of something like that happening is remote. You’re grasping at straws. Play to the probabilities, build through the draft.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
I find it kind of odd that alot of the general leaf fan public doesnt remember the fact that the draft doesnt end after the 1st round. I keep hearing over and over again “Burke traded ALL of the draft picks and the leafs have nothing to continue rebuilding with”. THe leafs have all their picks after the 1st round this draft dont they? even last year they had a 2nd round pick and a bunch in the later rounds. The leafs still are making selections at the draft table its just that the marquee pick they dealt for `kessel gets all the attention
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
yea… i guess that answers that
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
The golden proportion exists throughout nature. It’s God’s way of building everything including Stanley Cup Champions. Who are you to question God’s ways?
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by PPP on Nov 30, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec’d.
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
And I'm on Tweetbook
by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
hell, why don’t we go and sign a bunch ofbantamBATMAN players. that’ll ensure we’ll be awesome in about 10 years, right?
Yes. Yes it will.
Pumps out more male with one thrust of the pelvis than the United States postal service over the last 146 years.
Can you imagine a team of Batmans? it’d be like that fourth batman movie they made with mr. Freeze that everyone tried to forget until now when I just reminded you of it.
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DAMN YOU CLOONEY
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
when I grow up, I want to be just like you
Godd Till = Hero
˙˙˙buoןɐ sǝɯoɔ ɹǝʇʇǝq buıɥʇǝɯos ןıʇun 'op oʇ ǝʌɐɥ ןןıʍ sıɥʇ
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I hear superman wears Godd Till underwear
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
One time, Godd Till shed a single tear. That tear brought life to the being known as Chuck Norris.
˙˙˙buoןɐ sǝɯoɔ ɹǝʇʇǝq buıɥʇǝɯos ןıʇun 'op oʇ ǝʌɐɥ ןןıʍ sıɥʇ
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
me first!
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
pfft
it doesn’t say that in your signature
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Well done SF
I don’t think Burke is specifically eschewing the draft as a viable way to add pieces to a hockey club.
He made a concerted effort to move up to draft Mckegg and found creative ways of acquiring extra draft picks. Don’t want to open up the can of worms that is the Kessel trade, but I think the statement “July 1st is our draft” is a philosophy set in stone, I don’t see him saying that next year.
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 10:47 AM EST reply actions
“Burke needs a change in philosophy or the Leafs need a change in the front office.”
In a perverse way, I kind of want Toronto to finish with another lottery pick this year. Wait, wait! Before you start tearing into me, hear me out: Burke is too proud to learn his lesson and change his ways. For that reason, we need his spectacular failure.
Let’s say the return of Phaneuf and Armstrong spark this team and they squeak into the playoffs. They’ll exit in the 1st round ignominously, of course, but Burke will be vindicated, MLSE will taste playoff hype money again, and the Leafs will hover around the bubble for another three years after that, like a Columbus or Nashville, maybe getting into the 1st round but never getting very far. But that’s all MLSE will care about. The Leafs will subsequently get another batch of middling 1st round drafts, another batch of Colaiacovos, Tlustys, and Stajans.
On the other hand, if the Leafs bottom out this year again, Burke may be completely humiliated and fired. Nonis or someone else will take over, and Dallas Eakins, a coach with experience getting the best out of young players, will become coach. The Leafs will sell their veterans at a premium to contenders and stock up on picks. They will bottom out, draft the 2012-2014 versions of Stamkos and Tavares, and will make a cup run eventually.
This is the only way the Leafs will win the Cup. The only way.
For that reason, Burke has to lose his job. He’s too proud or loyal to even fire Wilson. What hope do we have of him seeing the light?
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 10:51 AM EST reply actions
I’m surprised, seeing as how you can apparently predict the future, that you became a Leafs fan in the first place. Seems like Detroit would have been a better choice.
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 8 recs
Zig’d.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Hey, an ad-hominem attack. Thanks for adressing my points.
Since I’m so poor at predicting the future, tell me, how do you expect the Leafs to win the cup?
Do you expect this crew to do it? Really? Or is it more realistic that, even assuming all the kids reach their full potentials, they’re still not good enough.
Do you expect that Burke will blow up this team for 2011-2012 and bottom out for a 1st overall pick for three years running? Or is it more realistic to assume he’ll keep pushing for the playoffs and finish 5th-7th from bottom for a few years?
Do you expect Burke to sign two genuine 1st line game-breaking forwards through free agency? Like he signed the Sedin twins? Oh wait, that didn’t happen, because everyone locks up elite talent these days, and those who are let go aren’t worth it, like Kovalchuk.
The absolute best possible case scenario for the Leafs with Burke at the Helm is the 2009-2010 Philadelphia Flyers. But hey, if you want to be like Vancouver and live off the failure of a lost cup final for a few decades, go ahead.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
You don’t have points, you have a bunch of “and then this will happen, and then, and then”
I’ll address your argument when you get one.
Fine, then answer my question. What is your vision for the Leafs winning the Cup?
How will they do it?
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Beat the Western Conference champion in a best of 7 series.
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 8 recs
Wow, that’s a tautology if I ever saw one.
Q: How will the Leafs win the Cup?
A: They will win the Cup because they won the Cup.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He was being sarcastical.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
I guess you’re better at spotting tautologies than you are someone taking the piss.
I don’t really see the point of your question – it doesn’t matter how me, aka some dude on a message board, sees the Leafs winning the Cup. I do think evaluating the roster now, not on hypotheticals of how a team SHOULD BE, is obviously paramount. And I think that firing Burke after 2+ seasons would ridiculous. I’m not thrilled with a lot of what he’s done, either.
How do we get better? is the valid question for the Leafs right now, they are so far off Cup contention.
How do we get better? is the valid question for the Leafs right now, they are so far off Cup contention.
Yep, and by getting better, they will be even MORE far off from Cup contention. Getting better, for these Leafs, means at best a string of early playoff exits and the mediocre draft talent that necessarily comes with it.
The Leafs have to tank to win the Cup.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
2nd overall. And what Ubiqitous said. They’re the definition of “random walk”
02 SCF
03 29th
04 Bubble team
06 Champions
07 Miss playoffs
08 Miss playoffs
09 ECF
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
This.
I’m not a big believer in luck when it comes to this, but they’re plan of bottoming out wasn’t necessarily effective.. going from the winner to missing the playoffs two years in a row? Seems like a fluke rather than part of the plan.
TB is the same way:
04 Champions
06 First Round Exit
07 First Round Exit
08 30th
09 29th
10 25th
They already had their core from bottoming out. Previously. Do you get a win every 10 years and then have to spend the rest tanking?
To be honest, i wouldn’t be on board. I understand we’d get the cup and everything, but it would feel like cheating, and I would not enjoy watching them lose year after year with no effort.
by Ben Schnell on Nov 30, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
That year was a clustercuss tough to base anything from it.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Carolina didnt tank, they alternated between missing the playoffs and winning multiple playoff series.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
they tanked at least one year.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
They stunk. I don’t think they did a traditional tank.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
They probably did something similar to the 06 Flyers. Just realized it wasn’t their year and moved all non-essential pieces.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
I think the 06 Flyers realized they had a good core coming up in Richards and Carter and didn’t shoot themselves directly in the face by trying to win for no reason in a year they wouldn’t be competitive.
Realizing you’re understaffed and not shooting yourself in the foot isn’t tanking, and they almost added Patrick Kane.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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The flyers also had a defense led by a one-legged Darian Hatcher and Robert Esche as a goaltender.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Dont forget Mike Rathje…. Clarke must have been high coming out of the lockout….
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with this assessment.
But in no way, shape or form is that equivalent to “tanking”
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
It’s equivalent to when we added Gerber for no reason.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
we added him so he could go ballistic and get a bitchen nick name, thats why
far from no reason
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
One fewer win we would have been in the lottery.
We went 6-6 with Gerber that year, throwing Pogge in would have seen us draft between 5th and 3rd.
Duchene, E. Kane, B. Schenn. Love Kadri but…
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I am still of the thought that Gerber’s play was a fluke. I think Burke picked him up with the intention to tank. putting Pogge in for those last few games and having him lose (almost) every single one would destroy not only the kid’s confidence (as if it wasn’t shattered already) and devalue one of Burke’s assets for a trade. I think the Gerber pickup was along the lines of, “heh,this guy has been demoted to the AHL once this year already, how good can he be?”
well, good enough to play us out of a lottery spot apparently
Dion Phaneuf: turning the tunes up since '10
by thenumber14 on Nov 30, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Pffft, Pogge would have gone 12-0 and you know it.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Philly traded a second round pick for Martin Biron in 2007.
They were just so bad it didn’t matter.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
He played 16 games and the Flyers were so far back they still finished dead last by more than 10 points.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I agree
LOOK AT THIS ROSTER:
Flyers=Fail.
I would need to check, but i feel confident in claiming this may well be one of the worst rosters in the history of the NHL, if not the worst. (post-expansion and excluding expansion teams for two years)
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Take a look at the Washington roster in Ovechkin’s first year.
Then take Ovechkin off of it.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Nov 30, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Chicago, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Tampa Bay
Worth noting that the significant pieces of all those teams were acquired in the pre-cap era. Not sure there is wisdom yet to be gained from examining the entrails of Cup winners in the post cap era – small sample size.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
by jrwendelman on Nov 30, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Worked for the Hawks and Pens.
Nowadays you need guys contributing way over their compensation (read: cheap RFA contracts and especially ELCs, or Anderson-type UFA deals if you can get those).
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL and where we defend Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin until the bitter end. That is to say, when someone tries to call BS on the Corsi numbers.
If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
by red army line on Nov 30, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
The fact that Burke made the Kessel deal with a team in his own division necessitates that they work as hard as they can to do as well as they can this year. After this season, all bets are off. I’m sure Burke is way too proud to admit that it’s a bad idea to give 2 lottery picks to a division rival, but in my eyes that’s the most pressing issue for the remainder of this season. Nearly 1/3rd of an NHL season is devoted to playing teams within the division and being competitive in that regard is one of the single biggest requirements for playoff contention.
After this year is up and we have our picks back, I’m good with tanking. But Burke needs to find a way to make this team more competitive in the immediate future, while minimizing the loss of young talent. Probably one of the tallest orders for a GM.
but he had to make the Kessel deal within the division
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
People seem to forget that Boston wanted Kaberle and our 7th pick (Kadri) for Kessel. I don’t know about you guys but I would rather have Kabs (and I’m no fan of his) and Kadri over Segiun and ? and ?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
you forget that if the Leafs had traded Kadri and Kaberle for Kessel, the Leafs would have lost the draft lotto and picked Gormley
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
That’s not a viable comparison.
Kaberle, Kadri and Kessel vs. Kaberle, Kadri, Seguin, Knight and our 2011 First. (what actually happened)
Kaberle, Kadri, Seguin, Knight and our 2011 First vs. Kessel, Seguin, Knight and our 2011 First. (what it would have been if Kaberle and a 7th for Kessel happened)
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
That's not an ad hominem
ad hominem is ignoring your argument by attacking your character: “You’re stupid so you must be wrong”.
This is more of a “This is so wrong you must be stupid”. Which is insulting, but not necessarily incorrect.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Nov 30, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 12 recs
hahahahaha
I lol’d hard.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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Also know as “the Dan Akroyd defense”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k80nW6AOhTs&feature=related
Lies. All lies.
by betterforsome on Nov 30, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
CTRL+F “Godd Till”
Action – Rec
repeat
˙˙˙buoןɐ sǝɯoɔ ɹǝʇʇǝq buıɥʇǝɯos ןıʇun 'op oʇ ǝʌɐɥ ןןıʍ sıɥʇ
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Dallas Eakins, a coach with experience getting the best out of young players, will become coach.
What makes you think Eakins has this experience? The Marlies are doing well because their goaltending is out of this world.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Ok, fair enough. Someone other than Wilson with a better talent for getting the best out of youngsters.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
hahahahahah YEA RIGHT. Like that will ever happen, it would make the world too good of a place to live in.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
Agree
I agree with this comment. The worst thing you can be is a team constantly in purgatory. If you aren’t going to be good you need to flame out in style and get a really high pick. The Gerber move and Kessel trade are examples of how Burke is a dinosaur in the post-lockout/cap era.
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
agreed
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Atlanta, Columbus, NY Islanders, Washington, Florida
Tank != Guaranteed Cup. I’ll scream it until my eyes turn fucking blue.
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Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
That’s not the whole story though. What team traded its firsts for years and then won a cup on their solid UFA work?
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The 2013 Toronto Maple Leafs?
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Haha, nice.
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
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by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
fine, tank doesn’t equal a guaranteed cup.
it’s necessary but not sufficient.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
selective
First of all Washington is on their way to a cup. I would definitely take their situation over ours. Columbus and Florida have NOT done it right. They’ve never been bad enough to get a franchise player since Rick Nash, and you can’t do it once, you have to do it at least twice (Toews-Kane, Crosby-Malkin-Staal-Fleury, Ovechkin-Backstrom, Kopitar-Doughty, Stamkos-Hedman, Staal-Ward, Edmonton eventually with Hall-Eberle-Paajarvi-2011). Hopefully we can come up with better management than Atlanta and NYI because they are tied with us for the bottom 3 in that department.
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
How have Florida and Columbus not been bad enough to get franchise players?
Washington is in a good situation but I don’t see a Cup in their future this year and they’re going to lose Semin and likely Fleischman.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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Do you need me to post their draft history?
Florida’s 1st top 3 pick in the last 7 years was last year (Gudbranson) besides that theyve had a 7th and everything else 10th or later.
Columbus: in the last 8 years they have not had a top 3 pick. they had a 4th last year (Johansen) and a 4th in 2003 (Zherdev). Everything else was 6th or later. That is not what I call bottoming out. You need top 3’s.
They haven’t had high enough picks and it’s their own fault (Doug MacLean even admits it)
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Ok
Top 3 is super bottoming out. I agree.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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Except
bottoming out that way means finishing 2nd last or dead last for multiple years.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
This is pretty hard to do even if you are trying.
See the panthers. They basically announced they were tanking this season and are still ahead of three teams in the East
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
remind me why they havnt traded vokun for a fist full of picks yet?
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Teams who can use Vokoun and/or afford to pry him out of there can’t afford a 5.7M annual cap hit yet
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Likes not having to pay state income tax. :)
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Like not having the pressure of playing in front of the home crowd?
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Look at Atlanta — they went 1,2,1,2 — Stefan, Heatley, Kovalchuk, Lehtinen and were back to the drawing board inside of a decade. Even with high picks and super bottoming out, you can still come away with nothing.
You need two things: Elite drafted talent and a GM who doesn’t fuck the whole thing up. Atlanta, Columbus, and Florida all had one but not the other. Toronto has neither.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Exactly.
necessary, not sufficient.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Hopefully losing Fleischmann, you mean. In fact, would you like to have him now?
As for Semin…yeah, it’s going to be tough to keep him if he’s not interested in taking a “structured” deal that brings his cap hit down below his salary level for several years. Which I’m not sure the club would be interested in doing.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Gimme gimme gimme gimme gimme gimme
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LOL
I have a crystal ball. Flash got traded.
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You must admit it wasn’t a hard conclusion to reach, unlike “You know we’re down 3-0 and have been terrible but i think we’ll still win this game against the Predators” which was an absurd conclusion with basically no supporting evidence.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
With Carlson as a true blue-chip defense prospect and Varlamov and Neuvirth in goal, I’m letting Semin walk if I’m the Caps. Well, not really walk, I’m trading him for what I can get at the deadline if I can get expiring talent for the playoffs and decent picks.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
Actually, I think he’s more valuable to their Cup chase this year. I’d keep him, try to sign him to a cheap deal, and let him walk if need be but I’m not throwing away a valuable asset in a contending year.
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Yup.
If Semin scores in t his year’s playoffs for teh Caps and they win t he cup, his pay day will go way up and well, the Caps will have a cup.
They’ll keep him.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t see any way they trade him save for a deal at the draft for his rights.
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so we’re all in agreement.
YAY!
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm
Voracek, Brassard, Filatov, Mason, Nash? How are they not doing it multiple times?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Cam Ward was taken 25th overall.
Kopitar was 11th overall and has never won a Cup.
Stamkos and Hedman have never won a Cup.
Edmonton winning a Cup? Bwahahahahahaha
Columbus has picked in the Top 5 3 times and 6th overall 3 times since 2000.
Florida has had a Top 3 pick 3 times since 2000 as well.
Not Liking Nikolai Kulemin Means You Have No Soul
Washington is on their way to a cup
That’s up for debate.
I would definitely take their situation over ours.
Agreed
Columbus and Florida have NOT done it right.
Agreed
They’ve never been bad enough to get a franchise player since Rick Nash, and you can’t do it once, you have to do it at least twice
This isn’t correct. Florida and Columbus have both been bad for several years, only in recent years they tried to climb that mountain and couldn’t get anywhere. They underline the danger of the tanking strategy in that nothing is guaranteed.
(Toews-Kane, Crosby-Malkin-Staal-Fleury, Ovechkin-Backstrom, Kopitar-Doughty, Stamkos-Hedman, Staal-Ward, Edmonton eventually with Hall-Eberle-Paajarvi-2011).
I don’t know why you have examples on this list that haven’t even won a playoff round yet, but Kopitar’s a 10th overall pick, Ward’s a 30th pick, and Eberle and Paajarvi were mid-1sts. Those aren’t picks you tank for.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
You’re being pretty obtuse if you don’t think Washington is loaded up for a solid run at the playoffs.
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I’m going with “the only hope an Eastern Conference team has of winning the cup is if all the Western teams bludgeon each other to injury-doom in the playoffs” (though, this is fairly likely)
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
That’s neat. I’m sure the Western Conference is howling with laughter at the thought of facing Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom and Mike Green in a short series.
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Shut-down defenceman Mike Green?
I don’t see any difference between this year’s Caps team and last year’s. In the playoffs, Boston or Philly would swallow them whole.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
I think you and a lot of people are writing them off because of their weird playoff exits. Took Halak working a miracle to bounce WAS last year.
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Seconded.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Sort of agree with you both to be honest. Agree with clrk in that the Flyers or Bruins would probably give Washington a lot of trouble. But also agree with Chemmy that Halak literally turned into Jesus last year, and I don’t think the West champ would beat the Caps (especially if they had home ice)
Essentially I think the Cup winner is coming out of the East this year, Philly or Washington. That’s a very very early prediction though, obviously.
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
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by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not calling a winner, but the way I see it is there are three teams in the East that the west isn’t laughing about.
Philly, Boston, Washington.
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I buy them as a contender, but scott says they’re on their way to a cup, and i wholeheartedly disagree.
They’re in the race but far from a lock.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Good lord.
You’re missing the forest for the trees. Nobody’s a lock for the Cup ever. Washington has built a team whose realistic goal is: “Win the Stanley Cup”.
We have a team whose realistic goal is: “Get out of the draft lottery”.
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by Chemmy on Nov 30, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In a discussion re: tanking vs. not tanking, this dude said Washington was all but guaranteed to win the Cup. That’s a refutable point.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
True.
As sort of an aside, since I’m thinking about this now, would you say that last years’ Hawks were about as close to a “lock” as we’ve seen in recent years?
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
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by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
And even then they were one Martin Erat brainfart from losing to the Preds in the first round.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Good point. And like Chemmy said, there is no real such thing as a “lock” to win the Cup. But I think the Hawks were the closest I can really remember… but then again the Wings have seemed like a lock for 20 years so..
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
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by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly. There are no guarantees in sports. Otherwise the Sens would’ve won the cup in 2007.
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They are my arguments for why Burke hasn’t done it right. It is pretty clear who the up and coming teams are and that’s Washington, LA, TBay, and Edmonton are on the list. That’s how you build a team. Anyone who thinks we are in a better position that Edmonton is crazy.
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Edmonton is poorly run, has no defense and has fewer points than the Leafs in more games.
Let’s take a deep breath on anointing them the next powerhouse.
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It’s not about this season!!!! Are kidding me, you think we are in a better spot than Edmonton? They have young high-end talent. We have young talent (plus they actually have their 1st round pick so will be rewarded for being bad unlike us).
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
They don’t have any high end defensive talent.
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Schenn is ours. That’s one pick they’ll make up for in the draft.
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Aulie, Holzer, Gunnarsson, Phaneuf….
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
It’s okay we have the savior Joey Crabb in the lineup tonight so we are guaranteed to finish ahead of Edmonton now.
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
there arent many things funnier than a well timed derp
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
You’re going to feel PRETTY dumb when Joey Crabb pots 20.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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And that’s why they suck at the moment. But that doesn’t discount the fact that they do have young high-end offensive talent.
The Oilers are an incomplete puzzle, just like we are. Except if they suck this year they will get something out of it. We just get angst.
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
yup, the leafs get absolutly nothing for sucking, they could finish dead last and wont get the best 2nd, 3rd whatever picks available
just angst
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
not to mention KESSEL! thats what we got out of it! Like an early christmas present!
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
You couldn’t tank for Crosby either. That was luck.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Nov 30, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Well, that lottery was weighted heavily based on recent results. Pittsburgh was lucky enough to be terrible for a while there.
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Two other most likely possibilities for the Crosby Lottery: Buffalo, CBJ.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
They had to be just bad enough. IIRC you also lost balls for picking first overall in any of the previous three years, and it had been four since they picked Fleury.
On the other hand, it’s irrelevant to the discussion, because that opportunity’s not coming around again.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Nov 30, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Wasn’t Tavares supposed to be the next Crosby? Did they say the same thing about Stamkos too?
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Crosby was supposed to be the next gretzky, he still isnt close
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
im the next Tim brent.
“Who..?”
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
The only error made with Gerber was not resigning him. He was Giguere, but 5% worse and 5 million dollars less expensive.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
But we still have Allaire training Giguere and we don’t have to watch Toskala play more than 3 games last season.
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The amount of Toskala you have in this season would still be 0.
Still having blake is an issue though.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
I never could understand why Leafs fans didn’t like Blake. The guy was great along the boards, didn’t make alot of mistakes, and he’s doing pretty well in Anaheim, and he was free (UFA)
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Because his patented “skate up the boards and shoot into the goalie’s chest” move never produced goals.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Couldn’t stand the guy for that. All the same, is he significantly worse than anybody on the two-and-a-half lines we have now that can’t score either?
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Terrible shot selection
Good on the boards? he turned it over constantly
Couldn’t/didn’t pass
Bitched about Mats Sundin not getting him the puck in first month on the team.
Yeah that sounds about right.
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
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by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
he has a career shooting % of 8, the 07/08 year was an outlier at 4.5%(but it came after a career year). I can’t see how you can argue that he’s not good along the boards, he beats defencemen to the pucks in the corners almost always, i couldn’t find turnover stats for him, post them if you have them. Sundin should have accepted the trade out of Toronto, i feel nothing for him. Blake can say what ever he wants about Sundin.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
any Leaf fan who wont defend Sundin gets serious negative points
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Any Leaf fan who won’t defend Sundin isn’t a Leaf fan.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
by Bower Power on Nov 30, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Jesus, setle down there tight pants.
My Mount Puckmore isn’t the same as yours, no big deal is it? Or do you want to live in cookie cutter world?
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Sundin hate is completely irrational no matter the spin used in an attempt to justify it.
Certified Grabbo Lover
What spin and what hate? I never said anything about what he did as a hockey player, he was good, and he should have taken the trade. It’s very rational
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
id rather have had sundin retire a leaf and got nothing for him than to trade him to montreal for higgins, grabbo and a 1st
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
edit, a 2nd! not even a first!
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
It was a 2nd….
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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he played his final season in Vancouver
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
because toronto didnt offer him a contract
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
And he waited until, it was about now in the season, wasn’t it?
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
I’ll have to think about it…
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
yup, he played exactly half a season with the canucks
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
the Leafs have enough problems without rehashing the Sundin kerfuffle (it’s official name)
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Sundin Gate 2008
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
kerfuffle sounds so fluffy
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
it's a prickly subject
so it’s name is intentionally misleading
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
yea, i know…
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
no one says he has to be on your puckmore
but to hate on Sundin after all he did for this organization and its fans is pretty weak because you asume he could have made this organization better through it
Higgins, Grabbo and a 2nd, what a haul that would have been
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Is saying i feel nothing for Sundin hating on him?
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
hah, that’s funny, is anyone on here over 30?
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Many people are, and some of us are approaching it in a few years
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
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A Leaf for 15 years. The Captain for 13. Leads the Leafs in career points, goals, ppg, shg, gwg, OTG. Carried the team to the playoffs for years in a row…
And you feel nothing for him because of how he ended his last year. Honestly, I would expect that of someone who only watched his last year, and laughed when you made it seem like older people should feel differently.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
Sundin scored some great goals and he was a beast in the playoffs, when he wanted it he was a force. I didn’t think he wanted it enough though. That’s why i’m not a huge fan. Funny thing is his final year with the Leafs was the best i’d ever seen him play.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a shame Sundin wasn’t born in Saskatchewan, no one would question his desire or work ethic ever.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
What if i wasn’t born and raised in North America, would i be entitled to this opinion then?
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
You’re always entitled to your own opinion. But no matter where you were born, being a Leafs fan and not liking Sundin is a stupid opinion.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
I love how you morph my position from; i don’t care about Sundin to; i don’t like him. I don’t like him or dislike him he’s retired and forgotten for me.
And you tend to use words like stupid and the like. I really don’t see the connection with not loving Sundin as a Leaf fan and being stupid.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think he wanted it enough though.
Hate. This. Phrase. So. Much. He basically carried this team to the playoffs. He was better than a PPG player in his last three years as a Leaf and was just about a ppg for the 5 years before that.
Saying players “don’t want it” is just basically saying "I don’t like him, so, uh, here’s a complaint. It’s completely made up. No one can ever point to what they mean when they say it. It’s the same thing that makes people imagine Kessel is a terrible, lazy backchecker.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
Whenever I see it, I read it as, he wasn’t born in Canada.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
When ever i see it, i read it as there he could have been a more determined player. Who knows though maybe he had cronic injuries which slowed him down some nights.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
could have been a more determined player.
What does this mean?
I feel like the next phrase should use the word “synergy.”
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
give me a break, what does the phrase carried mean, that he was a one man team with no support?
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
in a nutshell
yes
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
It means that he was far and away the best talent on the team, and that without his talent, it is unlikely that the Leafs would have had the regular season (and playoff) success that they did.
Your turn.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
Wait! I’ll go again – backing it up with stats! Sundin led the 05-06 Leafs forwards in both goals and assists, and put up more points than the next two players (both defensemen, Kaberle and McCabe) in fewer games. And in 06-07. And in 07-08.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
Ya but those teams were not very good to start with.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
how does that relate to:
“I don’t think he wanted it enough though.”
If anything the rest of the team didn’t want it and only he did.
Who wants to hear a funny ass joke?
It relates because he was making the arguement that Sundin led the team in scoring.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
That’s correct. Those teams were not very good to start with. Except for Mats Sundin. Who carried the team out of the basement.
2003-2004, led G, A, pts. First in the League for GWG.
02-03 he fell behind Mogilny for A and Pts. 8th in the league for goals.
2001-2002, led G, A, pts. Second in the league for goals.
99-00 led G, A, pts.
Clearly he didn’t want it enough to be loved by Leafs fans.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
those teams were much better. It was much harder to score goals pre lock out as well.
Leafs fans do love Sundin, just not this one.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Because he didn’t compete hard enough despite mountains of evidence showing he did just that?
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
It was much harder to score goals pre lock out as well.
He scored when it was hard to score, he scored when it was easy to score, he scored when he had good teammates, he scored when he had bad teammates.
It’s a shame he didn’t “want it” enough.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
Imagine if he had!
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
exactly my point, i’m glad your trying to see things from a different perspective.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
He was being sarcastic. Saying someone “doesn’t want it enough” provides no perspective. It’s just like saying “I don’t wanna” or “just because” – it’s empty.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
I would love to be able to calibrate a players drive. To draw up some statistic that proves he wasn’t giving it all and end the discussion. But we both know there is no such data out there. All there is, is a point of view. I watched alot of Matts Sundin hockey in my life and my feeling was he took nights off. One last thing before i move on to other discussions. Can you tell me why Sundin’s most productive season came with the Nordiques.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
.

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
aww, photo fail. chopped in half.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
This mean absolutely nothing to me Sundin scored so many big goals in the playoffs and carried scrubs on his wings to 30 goal seasons, but yea you’re probably right guess he didn’t want it bad enough.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
all i know, is that Gary Roberts said Mats was the best captain he ever played with. Gary. Roberts.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That’s good because i’m not trying to change your mind.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
I wrote is anyone on here over 30 as a joke because skinnyfish answered my question with what i thought was sarcasm.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Nov 30, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Lazy bum couldn’t shake Smolinski until after the blue-line.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
Finally, the beginning of this video is a good example of Mats having no heart:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrTcHByYWmc
Seriously: MATS SUNDIN. Period. ’Nuff Said.
Joe Bowen made me cry, damn him. I came home early from a date that night to make sure I could watch the game, I ran from one end of my house to the other screaming when he scored.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
Best part is that both Sens take Stumpy going to the net so Sundin has all the time in the world.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Kunitz wasn’t in the system. He was a waiver wire pickup in October after being claimed by Atlanta to start the season.
Burke acquired four of their top five scorers, all of the top three defensemen, two thirds of the checking line and the coach. Yes, it helped to have Penner, Perry and Getzlaf in the system, but no GM wins without inheriting at least one nice piece.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
Now in year 44 of the 42-year saga.
I especially like the oft-touted philosophy that Leafs fans have no patience for a slow rebuild. Really? and yet we have patience for this crap?
Fire Ron Wilson!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Nov 30, 2010 11:00 AM EST reply actions
But you want to fire Burke after 2 years. Patience!
by Godd Till on Nov 30, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
no. just wilson. i’m willing to give burke more time. Wilson’s time has run out.
tick tick tick. that’s the sound of your life running out.
Fire Ron Wilson!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Nov 30, 2010 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
OH MY GOD!
YOU KNOW IT’S LUMEN!
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Lumen… Luuuuuumen….
Stupid F*$king name.
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Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Oh, and nice post Skinny. Just wait for all the counterfactuals to pour in: ZOMG! Datsyuk was a 6th round pick!
Fire Ron Wilson!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Nov 30, 2010 11:02 AM EST reply actions
Zetterberg was a 7th!
But just to cut this stuff off at the knees:
http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?ID=267960
Lies. All lies.
by betterforsome on Nov 30, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
you dont make sense
so after looking through your spreadsheet….great research btw…
i think i actually have MORE confidence in burke. your hangup with the line “july1 is our draft” is leading you off base. its a comment…a sound bite. burke makes a million of those.
your conclusion from your spreadsheet…rounded to make it easy…is that on average, cup winning teams top 6 fwds consist of 3 drafted, 2 traded, 1 FA.
leafs have 2 drafted, 3 traded, 1 FA currently. so really…the july 1 thing makes no sense, we have the same amount of drafted/traded as the average.
on Defense…we have the same average as everybody else. 2/2.
so i guess i’m not seeing why burke’s way is so bad. ya i get that the kessel for 2 1st round draft picks (and a 2nd) was a huge price to pay. and thats been debated and debated….but dont look at his method as being wrong…when you proved he’s on track with everybody else.
by leaf fan dicky on Nov 30, 2010 11:03 AM EST reply actions
Welcome
Thanks for joining.
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thanks!
read the site for a while…just never posted.
by leaf fan dicky on Nov 30, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Great
Best advice I can give you: If people disagree with you, don’t get upset.
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oh! so that’s what i’ve been doing wrong.
Fire Ron Wilson!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Nov 30, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Go further though. How is he going to acquire top line forwards in the future? He can’t draft them and we don’t have assets available to trade for such players; it has to be through free agency. This team isn’t a Cup winner at the moment and with the way things are going with Burke’s team building philosophy, they won’t be anytime soon.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Bye bye Kaberle, Beauchemin, and Giguere? (ducks for cover)
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by red army line on Nov 30, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Kaberle and Giguere essentially can’t be traded. People calling for Beauchemin to get dealt our dumb because he’s our best defenseman.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Are you dictating to your computer or what?
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by Chemmy on Nov 30, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ROFL
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Yeah, trading Beauchemin mid-season would kill this team.
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“How is he going to acquire top line forwards in the future?”
I’ve been seeing this a lot and I think it’s silly. How was Heatley acquired? Joe Thornton? It’s a big league, guys become available for whatever reason. We’re assuming that the players we have don’t develop further. We’re assuming that all our picks/prospects become busts. We’re assuming that a team never is more than the sum of its parts. We’re assuming that we’re never going to get lucky and pick a diamond in the rough with a later pick. I’m not saying to count on that scenario, and I understand the fatalism and the pessimism, but there are all sorts of ways to acquire players.
While I appreciate the research, considering that Burke HAS been successful in the post-lockout era, and considering that he built a pretty good team out in Vancouver, I’m willing to give him more time.
Giguere was acquired via trade to Anaheim.
Chicago must be the exception: both Niemi and Huet were brought in as UFAs when they won.
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valid
i’ll concede that we def have to do a free agent move…but even if its bringing in (just using the name due to recent press) a guy like richards….he replaces macArther…ratio still stands. i realize it’ll take more then that to win…and yes, we def could use the draft pics, dont get me wrong. but we also have the youngest team in the league, and a bunch of talent we got thru US college…which yes i realize is FA…but still have some growing to do.
i mean…when was the last time detroit actually had a high first round draft pick. they make it work.
by leaf fan dicky on Nov 30, 2010 11:11 AM EST reply actions
Detroit makes it work but they are still going off of the benefits of the pre-lockout system when they could take chances on guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg and give them tonnes of time to develop because they could buy Hall of Famers.
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So what you’re saying is much of the data from 2004 back is irrelevant to some degree because the rules were different?
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
by clrkaitken on Nov 30, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh look at you Mr. Smartypants. Trapping me into a corner!
I do agree though. Not sure it alters the conclusion that more drafted players need to be contributing more significantly.
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Even with the lack of a salary cap and the ability to spend as much as you wanted, free agency were never the biggest part of a team.
Certified Grabbo Lover
round drafted...
be interesting, i’m sure its out there some place, to see the average round some of these “contributing drafted” players were taken in. detroits a good example of guys being drafted in later rounds and still making an impact.
maybe burke should look into this…and use it as a proof point on his kessel trade!
by leaf fan dicky on Nov 30, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Going back
Chicago – Toews 1, Kane 1
Pitts – Crosby 1, Malkin 1, Staal 1, Fleury 1
Detroit – Zetterberg 7, Datsyuk 6, Hudler 2, Lidstrom 3
Anaheim – Getzlaf 1, Perry 1
Carolina – Staal 1, Cole 3, Ward 1
Detroit is the anomaly here because they’re Detroit.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Detriot is the anomoly because they discovered Europe before anyone else did.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
yep
for the Leafs to do a Detroit, they’d have to be in northern China right now, spending millions building hockey rinks and then drafting Chinese kids noone’s ever heard of, and turning them into the next Zetterberg.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Don Cherry would just claim that Chinese players don’t have enough grit and they’d all sign with Montreal.
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Don Cherry would be dead by the time this would bear fruit.
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
Don Cherry Will live forever
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec’d
Dion Phaneuf: turning the tunes up since '10
by thenumber14 on Nov 30, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
yes, yes he will. Him and Keith Richards
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
I’m obviously not old enough to verify this well, but i understood that most of the other euro players were scouted from international play and not actually the european/russian youth leagues.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Detroit also makes it work because they’ve had at least one HOF defenseman manning their blueline for the last ~20 years.
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by red army line on Nov 30, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Here's what I don't understand:
Good post SkinnyFish, and I appreciate the statistical effort, but at this point you’re really just stating the obvious. If Toronto wants to win, they should build through the draft, supplementing their draft picks with free agency and trades, instead of vice-versa. You know it, I know it, and most Leaf fans know it.
So why, why, why don’t Toronto’s GMs know it? When Burke and JFJ got their jobs they each said they planned to build through youth. After winning praise from the fan base for this, they proceeded to trade away their first-round picks almost every year. I’d easily bet that the Leafs organization has traded away more firsts than any other team in the NHL.
What is it about Toronto that makes this happen?
Lies. All lies.
by betterforsome on Nov 30, 2010 11:30 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
It’s a commentary on how Burke bucked traditional team building once before, got lucky, and won a Cup. And how that has now got him thinking he’s figured out a different way to build a Cup winning team when really he hasn’t and the Leafs are paying for it.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Yeah, I get your point, Burke thinks he’s found the magic formula. I just get the feeling the next GM in Toronto will make the exact same mistakes, just like the last few have.
I am having pessimism for breakfast I guess.
Lies. All lies.
by betterforsome on Nov 30, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
I think anyone has to get lucky to win a championship.
When you have a good team that avoids injury to key components and gets on a hot streak you win the Cup.
Look at Conn Smythe winners. Malkin threw down 1.5ppg that year. His career regular season average against obviously softer opponents is 1.21ppg.
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Yeah, a lopsided series would look 75-25 maybe, then exponent that by four to get a 32% chance of winning four series when you’re 75% favorites each time. Something like that.
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL and where we defend Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin until the bitter end. That is to say, when someone tries to call BS on the Corsi numbers.
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by red army line on Nov 30, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly. I don’t buy into the whole “Get into the playoffs anything can happen” but our chance of winning the Cup will go from “zero” to “not zero” if this team finishes in 8th place.
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Lopsided series are 66-33.
SCF are 50-50 at least 80% of the time (PANTHERS?)
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
It works half the time every time?
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
re: the salary cap vis-a-vis free agency discussion, it only really further solidifies the importance of the draft. something burke has been presented in the media as being hesitant to utilize because of his successes in anahiem, and imo, a desire to cover the kessel gaffe (“oh, we never wanted those picks anyway” kinda deal)
burke was on 640 earlier this week complaining about the inability to move money in trades and the way the current CBA has hindered player movement.
i guess he’s trying to think outside the box in a system that isn’t entirely familiar (new cba) and it isn’t working well.
i say at least let him ride out the years he’s jacked over our draft chances.
Bigger Issue:
MLSE has shown some level of ineptitude (outside Colangelo) at hiring the proper GM for the situation. Not saying Burkie isn’t qualified, but i’ve never been sure he was the man for the job.
You need to consider that the NHL landscape has changed since the lockout and looking at trends in rosters earlier than 2004 does not accurately weigh in on the reality of it. Wether it makes it harder or easier to build a winner from within or to go outside the orginazation I do not know. I for one am all for Burke trying to go a different route than the traditional rebuild – as I am sure most of you were all on board as well. I do not want to be edmonton and neither should you.
Maybe Burke’s way will work maybe it will all come crashing down and we will have to rebuild from the ground up….but I am willing to let burke try as the other options are frankly depressing (5 to 8 years of absolute futility a la edmonton) who by the way have all these 1st round prospects but who’s to say they will all be good enough to win? And maybe they will all turn out but what are the odds they are still on the oilers by the time they all click?
These draft rebuild teams have a short window of oppertunity and once the ELC are gone they cant afford everyone.
STAY THE COURSE god damnit
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 11:40 AM EST reply actions
These draft rebuild teams have a short window of oppertunity and once the ELC are gone they cant afford everyone.
Agree and that’s where it takes a good GM to keep those teams competitive.
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THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE ANOTHER WAY
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 11:41 AM EST reply actions
That’s what they said in 2004 about Dubya…
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If I could
I would post my piece from the MLA as rebuttal on this (I believe I’m contractually obligated not to distribute it eleswhere).
My numbers and analysis showed that this team isn’t that different from most of the post-lockout cup winners, and is almost identical in make-up (in terms of drated players vs free agenst, etc) vs the cup-winning Ducks team.
I think given that Burke has won a cup already, it’s a bit rich to say he doesn’t know how to build a team. Does anyone have the source info, time, interest, etc to see how many GMs:
a) Never won a Stanley Cup
b) Hadn’t made the playoffs 2 years into their tenure with their team?
c) Turned a non-playoff team into a playoff team 2 years into their tenure?
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
Yeah
It was a good piece and yes, I believe it’s illegal.
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My piece from the MLA two years ago talked about the reasons tanking wasn’t an option for the Leafs. We didn’t tank because it wasn’t a realistic option for us. Also, that it is very important to keep in mind, as has been pointed out above, that the management landscape has changed profoundly since the lockout.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
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Also consider there will be changes in the CBA and they may actually benefit us
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 11:43 AM EST reply actions
I wonder about this one to be honest. If they change the salary cap rules significantly – LeBrun mentioned making the cap hit an average of the five highest salaried years for long-term deals – then might there be another buy-out amnesty?
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So you mean the salary cap math is going to get even more complicated? Sigh.
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
what if the PA shits the bed and the NHL manages to null any deals over 5 years?
or exactly if it’s actual salary and not cap hit and no other significant conscessions made? I have a feeling the free agent market would grow exponentially
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 11:46 AM EST reply actions
Use reply please.
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Clarity!
Thanks.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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No problem
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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Acutal salary to compute cap hit has a very blatent flaw.
Pay 10 players 4 million in year 1 and 2 million in year 2, (on average) then bring in another 30 million in free agents or trades or re-signings.
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Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Kulemin – Richards – Kessel
Kadri – Grabo – Macarthur
versteeg – Bozak – Armstrong
brown – brent/zigo – orr (interchangeable)
Phaneuf – Schenn
Beauch – Komi
Aulie – Gunnar
add in one high end winger (preferably LW but semin* would do)
Monster
Giggy
I think that’s more the team burke is looking for……I think something like that is attainable. Isn’t that that a team we could be happy with?
we’re not that far off – burke is a track…whether it ends with a cup or not who knows but were close to being above decent
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 12:07 PM EST reply actions
So we’re adding Richards and Semin. Where’s the cap space? What do we do in three years when we need another center and Brad Richard is a million years old and overpaid?
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ok no kabi an extra 4.5
factor in schenn and gunnar raise prob back to about 0
bozak is getting a paycut from the 3.5 caphit he know has maybe 1mil avail.
giggy should drop to 2mil or hit the road to wherver his heart may desire so thats 4mil were at 5mil capgeek shows 3.7 lets round up to 4
thats nine mil – cap goes up 1-2mil
were looking at what 10-11-12 million?
6 yrs at 6 million for richards is possible if LA doesnt bid the shit out of him…
semin is going to look for a big payday but who’s to say he finds it 5.6 for 4 yrs (hopeful) but anyways i don’t like semin any bigtime winger would work likely…..they are a little easier to attain then say a scoring center.
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
$5.6 for four years for Semin?
His contract is going to be something like $7.5M for eight years.
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I think the term will be shorter as he has quite an injury history. 7.5M seems likely given the bidding war though.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Semin is probably going to score 50 goals this year. So yeah, 5.6 for four years probably isn’t going to cut it.
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by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
sure that’s what he wants. who’s going to pay it though?
but he would prob go to KHL if the dollars don’t line up
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
well they cant sign everybody…
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
they missed out on Kovalchuck last year because he wanted a bone sick stupid contract
Semin is essentially Kovy light (even though right now he is about a billion times better) so they will offer him a Kovy light contract
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
point is if they get semin they prob wont get richards
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
they dont need richards
they need a goal scoring winger, so I dont think they mind
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
They’ll offer him that 7.5 over 7 or 8 years that Chemmy alluded to above. He’s going to be a King
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by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
well thats fine
Richards is all ours, right on
we can find a winger some other way
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
another thing I don’t think we have the luxury of worrying too much about richards age,
I don’t exactly see any young 90 point centers anywhere on the horizon….
lets just take what we can get and hope for the best
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
I’d rather be bad next year and still looking for a 1C than spend a ton on Richards.
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agreed
And we currently have our #1 pick in 2 years… let’s hold on to that.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Big spending
on that piece is something I’d rather avoid.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
As long as you keep that first digit to 5 or below you should be fine with getting richards. More than that gets a little iffy.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
UFAs in career years are just itching to take pay cuts.
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im not so worried about the dollars, its the years
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
Me too, though he’s a finesse passer and should age ok.
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yeah, but a 5 year deal at a 7ish cap hit is palatable, a 10 year one at 6.2, not so much
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
the years is not an issue with burke at the helm
5 to 6 yrs max.
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
I just don’t see it coming from anywhere else
upcoming rfa – tim connoly? har har
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe a 2013 play for Getzlaf in addition to drafting top ten twice.
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actually im pretty sure burke is working ANA right now…..
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
UFA, and yes, Tim connolly only earned his 4.5 million because he’s good at defense too. He’s not getting that much again.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
yes UFA – sry at work – typing will suffer
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
In Defence of Brian Burke
Being marginally familiar with scouting, I’ll point out the obvious- the draft talent from 2003-2008 was far and above more lucrative than what you’re seeing now (draft grades and comments from scouts will back this up).
Tavares…not exactly lighting it up in NYI (compare his numbers to Stamkos). Not much of a game-changer there (and the class of the 2009 class may well end up being Duchene…who Burke said he’d have picked if he had the #1 overall pick). A couple friends who were NHL scouts (worked for NJD and PHL) didn’t like Tavares at all.
Hall/Seguin…not projected by anyone with a brain to be the game-changers that came out years prior. Seguin is projected as top-six forward, same for Hall. Okay, a 20-30 goal scorer in the big pad era isn’t an asset that grows on trees, but comparing Ovechkin, Crosby, and Stamkos (3 generational talents) to Tyler Seguin is a joke. If you would take Seguin over Crosby or Stamkos put the crack pipe down.
Here’s what I go by- the GM’s who have said they’d have dealt for Kessel the way Burke did- Ken Holland, Ray Shero, and Jim Rutherford. Now let’s count up their Stanley Cups post-lockout (four) and the ones Peter Chiarelli has (zero). Chiarelli has yet to get BOS out of the second round of the playoffs. Just saying.
The other thing Burke has done is that the Leafs aren’t screwed on the cap. Finger is on the Marlies and Giguere is likely gone after the year (the Tucker buyout was not Burke’s doing). That frees up a whole lot of cap space (tack on another $4.25mm if Kaberle walks). See Chicago, Boston (they’re beyond screwed on the cap), and the pending disaster in NJD (PHL and PIT are getting close to being screwed; both teams will be about 2/3 spare parts before too long). The Leafs have money and they have cap space.
To go back to last summer, a lot of people thought going after Kovalchuk was the right thing to do, and further, a lot of you gave Burke a giant load of crap over his “I don’t give out these uber-long contracts” and yet, Burke doesn’t have any truly “ZOMG what were you thinking?” deals (Lebda was a mistake but it’s a 2-year deal for a relatively small (albeit too much) number. Other than Kovalchuk there wasn’t much out there in terms of top-six forwards, and if the market for moving Kaberle wasn’t there, then there’s not much you can do (the deal I thought made sense was a straight swap for Semin of WSH- both guys UFA’s come 7/1/11; WSH would get a bit of cap relief and the Leafs would get a 40-goal scorer and if Semin blows then he’s gone).
As for teams that rebuilt…CHI won a cup and blew up the team (ATL says thank you), WSH hasn’t yet managed to get out of the second round, PIT won a cup and is teetering on salary cap purgatory.
What seems to be glossed over is just how bad the Leafs were when Burke took over and what a shambles the farm system was. Lest we forget, Burke signed Bozak (who I think will eventually come good), Gustavsson, Scrivens, and Hanson without burning a draft pick.
The Maple Leafs- making me certifiably insane since 1985.
by torleafsfan29 on Nov 30, 2010 12:12 PM EST reply actions 12 recs
Rec’d for sanity.
So much vitriol in this thread today.
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Nov 30, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Good points, stuff we somehow over look.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Good comments
Burke’s definitely done good things but I go back to thinking that this short-term moves are killing his long-term planning.
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He does seem a little impatient: like trading for Caputi and Aulie instead of two picks in the 40s.
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Aulie has already played for this team and looks OK at the NHL level. A kid taken in the 40s might never see the light of day.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
Now in year 44 of the 42-year saga.
yeah, caputi and aulie have about a 400 percent better chance at becoming a regular NHL player than someone drafted in the 2nd round
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
It’s hard for Caputi to prove his worth when Ron Wilson’s blacklisted him for some fucking reason
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
by clrkaitken on Nov 30, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Per Bob McKenzie, Scott Hannan has been traded from Colorado to Washington.
No word on what’s going back yet. My guess is Fleischmann.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 12:17 PM EST reply actions
There’s their defensive d-man.
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Exactly what they needed.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Good trade. Damn it.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Man, what is Colorado doing?
They essentially downgraded from Hannan to Hunwick, and pick up Fleischmann in exchange for a prospect?
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Getting younger.
They know they’re not gonna win the cup right now.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
possibly dropping salary
Mike Weber: Free to roam the ice and take stupid boarding penalties once more.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
it almost evens out if you add Hunwick’s salary to Fleischmann’s.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Enjoy that 51 point season while you had it Fleishmann, cuz it ain’t happening again.
Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
And I'm on Tweetbook
by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
They just lost Stewart
for 4-6 weeks… they want to keep the scoring… they might have a prospect blue liner to pick up the slack.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
Yup.
So, who else is desperate for a defensive d-man?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Good Guess! it’s Fleischmann going the other way
Dion Phaneuf: turning the tunes up since '10
by thenumber14 on Nov 30, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Two points
One is that the age of free agency has dramatically changed over the past 20 years. It’s possible to add players now that could only be traded for in seasons past. The salary cap changes things too, but it may also make players more readily available. Kessel could (and should) have been acquired through free agency.
Two is that this really smacks of griping about the Kessel trade. Where else has Burke dumped high draft picks for quality players and come out short? His most celebrated trade (justifiably) was the Sedin acquisition, where he turned two firsts, two thirds, a fourth and Brian McCabe into effectively the top two picks in the 1999 draft.
Burke’s philosophy is actually quite clear: be extremely aggressive in pursuing the type of player you want by any method available (except, oddly, signing RFAs). He looks for good deals wherever he can find them, and takes gambles. He lost a big one with Kessel. If that’s what you want to go after, don’t beat around the bush.
I've been looking at the sky
The kessel is not a loss
Its Kessel for seguin and knight, and then the crap shoot that is the coming draft
Seguin might be great we dont know yet, while kessel is great when surrounded by good players, which is the next step in Burkes plan.
Burke has solidified the net, and the defence is better, hes now onto forwards
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by Yotes Lover on Nov 30, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
IMO the gamble on the Kessel trade was that the Leafs wouldn’t give up a top two pick. That gamble’s been lost.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Nov 30, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
have the leafs given up a second top pick yet?
did I sleep right through to April last night?
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
One mistake
Yes, it looks like a big one, but Burke had a long history as a risk-taker before he ever came here.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Nov 30, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
In the poker games I play, if you go all in and lose, you’re out of the game.
Certified Grabbo Lover
And you never get to play again? Do the best players never go all in?
Or is this just a lousy metaphor?
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Nov 30, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Not that it matters, but Seguin had a lower draft rating than Kessel. Just saying. And Seguin was #2 overall.
Again- 2003-08 was some of the best talent any of us will see drafted. Taylor Hall will be a nice player but just because he was picked #1 overall doesn’t for one second mean he’s the same calibre as a Crosby, Ovechkin, or Stamkos.
The Maple Leafs- making me certifiably insane since 1985.
by torleafsfan29 on Nov 30, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
This all means that if you want to win the Cup, you should probably build your team primarily via the draft, not free agency, and trade for the final pieces needed to make a run at the Cup.
It’s fucked up, but this is pretty much conventional wisdom in the NHL. Burke is a rebel, trying to buck the trend. He’s “in a hurry” so we’ll see how this team looks in a year from now. I can’t imagine he expected to be in 13th place in the East on 30Nov2010, when he started back in ’08.
Good luck Burke, you’ll need it. I’ll be watching and waiting. Some more
BS
I'm not reading all of these points
Because I don’t have that much time right now…
but ‘shrill’ comes to mind.
Also… Chicago had Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Bolland, Byfuglien, Hjalmarsson, and Brouwer as draft picks. That’s 3 of the top 4 D, and 4 of the top 6 forwards…
Sharp, Versteeg, Ladd, Fraser, Eager were all traded for… 5 of the other forwards, 3 of whom are probably top 6 material.
Hossa, Campbell, Madden, Kopecky, Niemi, Huet, Khabibulin, were all UFA signings. That’s another 3 key forwards, another top 4 D, and all 3 starting goalies they’d had in the prior 2 seasons.
Hossa, Campbell, and all their top goalies? That’s pretty significant from a FA perspective.
Half their forward corps weren’t drafted by the Blackhawks.
The Leafs have a lot of free agents, but seriously? I don’t think the correlation/causation thing we’re drawing on here makes a lot of sense.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Drafted
or not… they’re all young… I don’t think it can really be argued the Leafs aren’t developing these players… and we’ve had a significant number of draft picks in recent years… despite lacking 1st rounders.
I think it’s unrealistic to expect any of this (right or wrong) to be discernible from this point in time.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
i liked the analysis
but it assumes that the only way to win was the way the other guy did it. There is more than one way to tie a knot.
But I can appreciate Toronto’s desperation, and feeling as if there is no more time for screwing around with creativity. (hey we’ve got the Detroit Lions so i know that feeling)
In my opinion, Detroit’s success has come through recognizing who are the best personnel. Be it draft, free agency or trade. Our scouts and GM take the guys everyone else has passed over.
The funny thing is
there’s infinite time to continue to screw up… I’m not sure why there’s such a feeling of urgency right now.
We’re BETTER than we were last year… and most people agree this team wasn’t going to do anything other than scratch for a playoff spot… what has suddenly changed?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
maybe the fact that we don’t seem to be scratching for a playoff spot, and that, despite your instance that we’re a better team than we were last year, are on pace for fewer points?
Fire Ron Wilson!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Nov 30, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Leafs somehow win 6 of their next 10, other teams win loose, whatever in right way, Leafs are 7th – 8th in the east
ship has righted itself and everyone starts talking about how you just need to make it in! anything can happen!
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Winning 6 of our next 10 would be as impressive as making the playoffs.
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teams the Leafs can beat
Tampa
Edmonton x2
calgary
montreal (they’ve already done it this year)
pittsburgh (see monttral
6 wins!
likely? not really, but stranger things have happened
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Tampa’s 13-8-3.
I have the worst feeling possible about Edmonton.
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edmonton is still very beatable, bad feeling or not (after the way they trounced Ottawa after the sens shut out the leafs…ugh)
but whatever, 5 wins in 10 games and the leafs are sitting in 8th-9th if stuff goes rosey with other teams, what ever
silver lining?
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Before the last 2 games
I was going to be happy with 10-12 points in December.
I’m trying to stick to that, but I’ll reduce it to 8-10.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Crabb will probably score 2 goals tonight and then we’ll have a new savior.
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Go Joey
we can bring him up and promote him to the top line.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
You don’t think 8-11-3 is better than 4-11-7?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
You don't think
reducing our goals against from over 80 to 61 isn’t an improvement?
We’ve scored 9 less goals… we’ve allowed 20 or so fewer…
we’re a better team.
And I’m not going to say what the Leafs are on pace for after 22 games, because they’re NOT GOING TO KEEP TO THAT PACE.
That’s the same logic that had them going 82-0 after the first 4 games… which is idiotic.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Why do you assume our pace will improve rather than worsen?
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Would you say our roster is more or less talented than last year’s?
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
Slightly less, but younger and with some room for improvement.
Much as we denigrated them, Blake, Hagman, Stajan and Poni were all talented offensive players.
Their replacements (Versteeg, MacArthur, Kadri, Armstrong) aren’t that good. At least, not yet.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Actually
if you look at the 22 game point totals from last year, the Leafs top 6 from this year has more points than the Leafs top 6 from last year..
The main change is Kaberle has 10 points instead of 24.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
The biggest
difference right now from last year’s offense, is the D and bottom 6 offensive production… it’s virtually non-existent.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Regardless, we have less offensive talent than we did last year.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
On what basis?
The only top 6 forward producing at a lower rate right now is Bozak…
we have less production from our D… and the idea that our top 6 produced more last year is patently false.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not talking about top 6. I’m talking about the team. Look at the goals scored Steve. This isn’t controversial or complicated. We’re a less talented offensive team (and the D hasn’t really changed).
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
No it hasn't
so the D isn’t less offensively talented.
I’m in agreement we’ve scored less… that isn’t because we’re less talented per se.
Versteeg isn’t scoring up to his ability, nor is Bozak. I am not 100% sold that we are less “talented”… we’ve produced less… by 9 goals… I don’t disagree with that, but that isn’t a check of talent to me.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Overall out
we’ve lost Hagman, Stempniak, Stajan, Blake, and White…
we’ve brought in Bozak, Versteeg, Armstrong, Sjostrom, and Brown…
I’d say from an offensive talent perspective that’s a net decrease, but we also have more money for offensive players in the future…. and we’re working at developing them. This is a young team, which I will acknowledge… bu tlast year’s team underperformed, and I’m not admitting that we’re worse.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Versteeg is on pace for 24. I’d say that’s his ability. We were dreaming of 30.
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Sure, seems like he’ll pot 25 and maybe 30 if he gets lucky on the PP.
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
but you singled out players initially, you didn’t write “the team” you wrote:
Their replacements (Versteeg, MacArthur, Kadri, Armstrong) aren’t that good.
and I think that Steve is trying to point out that these 4 players are not the crux of the issue.
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
I'm assuming neither
I just think predicting anything from now to then is absurd…. and I really only think it makes sense to compare apples to apples.
Comparing an 82 game total to a 22 game pace is not really reasonable because they aren’t going to maintain the exact same pace all year long… and you know it.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
The best evidence we have right now is we’re a 71 point team. I defy you to demonstrate otherwise.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
We don't have
evidence on them being a 71 point team… we have evidence on them being a 19 point team after 22 games… you are saying we have ‘evidence’ of a prediction… that makes no sense.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
We have evidence of how good they are. 19 in 22. How many games until you think that is of predictive value? 81 games?
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Why?
because I think overall this team is better than last years.
They have injuries they didn’t have last season… that’s a pretty significant issue. Those players will return from injury eventually.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
All teams have injuries.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
Last year's team
was not missing a top 4 D man… and they weren’t missing one of their top 2 goalies.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
We're comparing last year's Leafs and this year's
not “All Teams”.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Missing Kessel for 12
Missing Komi most of the year
Missing Monster for big chunks.
All teams have injuries.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think we’re arguing from different positions.
My feeling is that this team is a better team with a better start point than last year.
Your feeling is that it’s a worse team.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
My feeling is we’re about the same.
The D is basically the same but playing better.
The G is much better.
The O is much worse.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
The O is not much worse.
The only player scoring at a significantly inferior rate is Kaberle… 24 points has become 10.
The top 6 forwards are producing MORE not less.
Your argument isn’t making sense to me.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'll write a posting on this after work
I actually looked at it at home last night, but I don’t have my notes with me, and I’m at work…
I will get back to it, but there’s a misconception and hindsight seems to be failing people.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
Hindsight is the biggest issue this year, I find.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
It’s all those new rules about blindsight hits. People are looking back waaaaaaaaaay too much now.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
haha
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Last year we had 2.56 gpg. This year 2.18. That’s a big drop off.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
and that would be
my insistence… not my instance… pedantic but hey.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
it's that toronto pressure cooker
far too many cooks in that kitchen.
thanks, i had to laugh at “there’s infinite time to continue to screw up” .. sounds like my life summarized.
Well, this is one red wings fan that wants to see TOR get to the playoffs. It’s an Original Six thing dammit. hang in there.
Well that’s a breath of fresh air. I have a buddy who’s a Wings fan and he’s such a douchebag when anything Leafs-related comes up in conversation. Granted, hockey isn’t his favourite sport and he’s only a Wings fan because his dad (who also doesn’t know shit about hockey) has family in Detroit. He just doesn’t appreciate the lore and the respect between those Original Six teams, no matter how much you hate each other.
Welcome
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Anyone lese listening to the the Fan590? This issue is ridiculous
I laugh at lebda all the time…..
point and laugh in fact
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 1:14 PM EST reply actions
What'd they say.
Is Lebda on or something?
by scott tubbesing on Nov 30, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
So just because the majority of Cup Winners are built one way they all have to be built that way? Come on! Besides Burke doesn’t care when to add from free agency, trade or draft. If he sees something that makes the team better, he does it regardless of the standings. As for our lack of draft picks working out, I have studied the numbers from the last five years and on average there are about 8 first rounders on a Cup Winner’s roster, with 3 of them being drafted by the team. For Toronto that would be Kadri and Schenn. The remaining first rounders not drafted by the team are Phaneuf, Armstrong, Sjostrom, Kessel and I’m sure I’m missing someone. Regardless, the point is Burke knows what he’s doing. Besides, we have one of the deepest farm teams in the NHL. Why does it matter where these prospects come from?
we have one of the deepest farm teams in the NHL.
Our farm team is not deep in any form of the word if we’re talking about offense. Joey Crabb, a .522 PPG player in the AHL is our latest call up to help the Leafs. That’s pretty awful.
Why does it matter where these prospects come from?
It matters where you players come from because teams simply don’t pick up elite talent via trades or free agency with anything resembling common frequency. People can go on and talk about Pronger, Heatley, Hossa, or Semin. But it’s really only on the order of 1 elite guy a year. That’s it. Teams are built around their own talent and the benefit of this is that you can control their contract values to a degree, while also not having to rely on the right piece you need becoming available in free agency. It takes the guess work of team building to a point.
Certified Grabbo Lover
It’s not the only way, but it is the way that has shown the most probability of success.
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Nov 30, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Most probability?
no it’s shown the most success… not probability of success.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
no it’s shown the most success
Well, even better then. Thanks for helping my point along.
I haven’t given up on Burke yet. He has another year to address the offensive output. Maybe I’ll give him 2. But he isn’t doing it the way that has “shown the most sucess.” So fuck it, the Leafs are the outliers trying to buck the trend.
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Nov 30, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
It’s also shown the most failure by leaps and bounds as there are 26 teams in any given year with the same breakdown of players acquired that did not win the Stanley Cup.
The probability is much much lower if I had to guess at the figures.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
Why compare yourself to teams that don’t win the cup? Their is one ultimate success in hockey. This post looks at those teams that attained that success in the past 20 years, and how they were “built.”
The question being asked and answered in this post is “How Cup winners are Built?”
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Nov 30, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Right, but if you’re looking at odds of success (ie, if you build your team this way then you have an X pct chance of winning the cup) then it shows that teams that build as Anaheim did and NYR have tried to do, have a greater probability of success – based on attempts and results.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
19 cup win / 26 tries per year * 20 year = 3.7% chance
1 cup win (anaheim) / 2 tries * 6 years (guessing) = 8.3% chance
I’m not saying this is precise but even if I grant you the 19 wins, the odds still look way better the other way.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
Let’s not forget our beloved Maple Leafs for the last 20 years in the “Anaheim” bunch.
The use of the word “probability” was obviously misplaced, as Steve pointed out. I’m not looking at the odds of success. I’m looking at actual success in the past 20 years – what the post is about. Hey, there’s still time for D’amigo and other Leafs draft picks to round out and become successful NHL’ers.
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Nov 30, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Rad Boss and McKegg!
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not the only way, but it is the way that has shown the most probability of success.
Thank you.
Certified Grabbo Lover
It’s been the most tried so it’s no wonder it’s been the most successful. I’m with Steve on this one. Number of times successful doesn’t provide probability on its own. Success and attempts are what needs to be considered and if that’s your formula then it’s MUCH less successful than the Anaheim model which was really only tried by Anaheim and the NYR.
You have stats but you also have fallacious assumptions that are ruining them.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
Take your same spreadsheet and expand it for every team in the entire NHL and I would suggest that nearly all teams would fall into precisely the same breakdown of players drafted, traded for and acquired by free agency.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
Is it really relevent to look at the pre-cap era when it comes to team building?
Team building was so different back then. Players didn’t become UFAs until much later so obviously the numbers of free agents would be lower. Also, the ‘traded for’ figure is probably skewed because of this exact same phenomena.
My feelings on Burke’s philosophy would be this: There haven’t been as many good free agents as he expected because the cap has continued to rise fairly dramatically, meaning teams with longterm ‘mistake’ deals have been able to continue to spend despite this. I feel that when the cap reaches an equilibrium, Burke’s strategy of not signing guys to monster deals will pay off as his team will be one of a handful able to take runs at the high end talent that will eventually become available.
Philly comes to mind as a team that was saved by the cap increases being as large as they’ve been. Can you imagine what that team would look like with the Briere deal if the cap had stuck around $39M?
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
My feelings on Burke’s philosophy would be this: There haven’t been as many good free agents as he expected because the cap has continued to rise fairly dramatically, meaning teams with longterm ‘mistake’ deals have been able to continue to spend despite this.
So Brian Burke incorrectly guessed that he could build via free agency due to incorrectly guessing at what the free agent market would be?
Certified Grabbo Lover
I would say that Burke incorrectly guessed how the Canadian dollar would be valued relative to the American dollar – if you want to reduce it down to its lowest form.
And I think that this will change, and as it does, I think his philosophy will work better than it has to date.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
“You can’t count on free agency to solve all of your problems,” Burke said.
Jun 29, 2010
Globe and Mail
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
For everyone obsessed with the "July 1st is our draft quote"
“You can’t count on free agency to solve all of your problems,” Burke said.
Jun 29, 2010
Globe and Mail
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:46 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
exactly
so why hold him to his word when he’s saying the opposite just a few weeks later?
Show both sides.
He’s not an idiot, this is by design.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
so why hold him to his word when he’s saying the opposite just a few weeks later?
Because despite what he says, his record of team building speaks for itself.
Answer me honestly, what about what Burke has done in the past 2 years as GM of the Leafs gives you the belief that he’s got this team on the right track?
Certified Grabbo Lover
Smoke, Mirrors and sound bites, the Brian Burke way
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t believe he’s got the team on the right track.
But he successfully built 3 teams already in his career. If we’re on the right track, I want him to stick around and fix it.
I also don’t think it’s necesserily his idea to rebuild this way. I think he believes he can do it, yes, but may not have originated the concept. Why?
Richard Peddie, president and CEO of MLSEL, was pleased with the presentation.
"Excellent job. Burke and (Dave) Nonis updated the board on strategy and progress for both the Leafs and Marlies. (Burke) got the dollars he requested and more. The board is very comfortable with the direction."
June 16, 2010 Toronto Sun
Say what you want about Burke’s performance in Toronto – it’s sucked. But for all the beliefs that he has independance from the board to do what he want, I no longer believe this to be the case. If MLSE didn’t want to do the scorched earth method of rebuild, what do we expect?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
sorry
if we’re on the wrong track
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
I do like what he’s done to our defense. Signing Gustavsson, getting Giguere, these things are what I believe in the long run will end up helping us to success.
Trading for Kessel but not getting anyone to help him, that looks like a huge failure to me so far.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. That Kessel deal should have been done for a franchise centre, not a franchise right winger (if there is such a thing). Not that Kessel has been the problem on this team, far from it.
I agree. I get the sense Burke was hired because he presented as someone who would not perform a traditional tank and draft high rebuild. Rather he sold the idea of a plan to rebuild or “re-tool” quickly. And this please the MLSE Board of directors, and Burke was hired, and it was good. On the 7th day Burke rested.
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Nov 30, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
So because MLSE in their infinite ownership wisdom don’t want a full rebuild and will only hire guys like Burke who present strategies they approve of, we should just roll over and take it?
Certified Grabbo Lover
No.
But we shouldn’t call Burke stupid for doing what his bosses ask him to do.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
perfect logical analogy completely devoid of hyperbole
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Can I get a ruling, please? Has Godwin’s Law hereby been proven reliable?
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
/clicks heels together.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
I’ve been saying that for a while now.
That MLSE didn’t target Burke for GM just because he’d won a cup. Rather, they targeted him because he came in to the Ducks and won the cup in a year.
Of course, his predecessor in the old job was Murray and not Ferguson, but MLSE is only smart when it comes to making bucks.
Anyway, Burke likely knew this. MLSE and Burke likely have an understanding, spoken or not, that the rebuild will be quick. And that’s why Burke didn’t go for a full rebuild (complete with tanking).
Fire. Wilson. Now. Anger is more useful than despair.
by Peter de Chatham on Nov 30, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
That MLSE didn’t target Burke for GM just because he’d won a cup. Rather, they targeted him because he came in to the Ducks and won the cup in a year.
You may be right, but I’m doubtful the speed with which he accomplished the Cup had much bearing in the selection process.
How many qualified professionals are there who could head-up the Leafs – maybe 10? And of those, how many were at a point in their professional lives where they were able to take the job, maybe 3?
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Allaire as goalie coach, Phaneuf trade, Giguere trade, signing of Gus, Scrivens, Rynnas.
The only mis-steps as I see them are the Kessel deal (which may still work out as Seguin could be anything – though at this point we would have to call it a mistake) and the Komisarek contract. It’s been more good than bad with an asset base of 0 to start his tenure.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
For starters
Aulie
Kadri
Gustavsson
Rynaas
McKegg
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
RAD BOSS
team Canada bitches!
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
Skinny just go back and look in the archives here and see how much Burke has done in the two years here. Look at what we had before and now… tell me you don’t see an improvement. I don’t think anyone is saying its all been good but the good most certainly out weigh the bad and we are so far better ahead now than then.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Pre-Burke the Leafs were a high scoring team with no offense or goaltending who couldn’t win games. Post-Burke the Leafs are a low scoring team with decent defense and goaltending who can’t win games. Take a step back and Burke has replaced a team who can’t win games with a team who can’t win games.
Certified Grabbo Lover
No
teams that have good D are on a better track to win than teams that have no D… good offense does not compensate for good Defense.
They aren’t equivalent… despite the results…. and the results aren’t identical so even on that front we’re not really finding alignment.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Nov 30, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
and the results aren’t identical so even on that front we’re not really finding alignment.
As you debated with 67sound above, how long until we can call them identical? Last years team finished with 74 points. This year’s team is on pace for 71. Change you can believe in!
Certified Grabbo Lover
How many points was last year’s team on pace for at this point last year?
You’re comparing apples and oranges.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Right. Gotcha. So The67Sound and I will wait until the 81st game before coming back and asking everyone’s thoughts on where the Leafs will finish this season.
Certified Grabbo Lover
No.
Answer my question.
Compare where we are this year with where we were last year.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
14 points, so on pace for 52. Finished with 74 which was143% of their expected points after 22 games.
19 points, on pace for 71 means they’ll finished with……….drumroll……….101 points!!!
WE’RE WINNING THE DIVISION!! HOOYA BABY!!!
Certified Grabbo Lover
It’s so helpful to ask a serious question and get a sarcastic response.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Compare where we are this year with where we were last year.
Pretty sure I did exactly what was asked of me.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Her point is a fair one, you’d have to concede. You don’t need to make it a linear improvement over the remaining games to see that we are in a better position to finish with 80 points this season than we were at this time last year. No need to make a farce out of it.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
If you say, we have 5 more points now than we did at this time last year then it’s not unreasonable to expect that 5 points better than last year is a plausible outcome (though the ‘pace’ set is lower than last year’s).
The end of last season shows, at a minimum, what these team is capable of over a stretch of 20 games or so. It’s evidence that we could improve on the pace we’ve set thus far and is a fair point in that regard.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
I asked to demonstrate that the notion of linearly extrapolating based on our pace does not seem to be an accurate way of predicting where this team will finish.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
Not really. ‘Pace’ is valid considering the endpoint is all that’s really relevent. Also, they didn’t have kessel while they were establishing last season’s pace.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
But there are a million (exaggerating) other factors that happen from December to March that effect pace as well.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Of course, things can change. But looking at where we were at this time last year isn’t really relevent. Can we get better? Of course we can. Using where we were at this time last year isn’t really instructive though.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
Why not?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Compare our pace last year with the actual results.
Then calculate our pace this year. The difference would make more sense then.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation
by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
you mean, they can’t win games, except for the fact that through 22 games last year, the Leafs had 4 wins and this year they have 8.
Essentially, 4 more wins is not an improvement.
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
Wow that pretty black and white… So we can agree that this team is closer to Burkes team than last year? If so in one year you except this young and newly formed team to be better than a team that was build a certain way for say, over 5 years? I am not saying we should accept defeat but a bit of perspective is needed now.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
And where are the highly skilled forwards going to come from? Via free agency where we can’t afford them due to overpaid players like Armstrong, Lebda, Versteeg, Komisarek, and Phaneuf?
Via trades where we have no assets available to make a deal?
Via the draft where our next 1st round pick would be ready for the NHL until 2014 as a 20 year old?
I hear over and over again that the grass is going to be greener on the other side, but nobody has been able to tell me how we get over the fence Burke has put up.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Giguere is off the books this year, as is Kaberle. That’s $10M more cap space on top of what we already have. Free agency is a viable option for this team — assuming any good players ever actually get to free agency
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
assuming any good players ever actually get to free agency
You know what happens when Brian Burke assumes and we believe him? He makes an ass out of you and me.
Certified Grabbo Lover
well its not like he’ll go out and sign middling players to over priced too long deals to make up for not landing that grade A talent….right?
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Sure. We can lament his inability to turn the offense around all we want but he’s only had two free agencies to put his plan into practice and neither crop was a strong one. Maybe this year is different, maybe it isn’t, but it’s tough to think Burke was wrong given that the crops that preceded his tenure as GM here were quite strong and that the Sedins were about 8 hours away from being UFAs.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
it's pointless
once people decide to be negative, they are.
that’s where you’re at. “Discussing” (which is a bullshit cop out) is only done cordially here if the two parties agree that everything sucks. Otherwise, it’s mocked and given condescending remarks.
I might as well read through TSN and the Star comments on articles if I want someone to piss all over my team.
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
At least here, unlike TSN, as we piss on the team we attempt to do so with minimal spelling and grammatical errors.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
by mf37 on Nov 30, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and PPP has funny memes.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
We’re not savages.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
well said
It’s the grammar, proper punctuation and spelling that keep me coming back
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
So you’re more of a grammar fan than Leafs fan?
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
recd
for the lulz
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
But I don’t think the leafs fans could handle a rebuild?
here is the reason why.
As far as fans, they would be happy to see a full rebuild—sucking for a few years would be bad, but no different than what we are experiencing now, except that we have hope.
However, if we were to do a full rebuild, we wouldn’t have any of these large contracts. We wouldn’t have Kessel, we might not have Giguere. In fact, it doesn’t matter who we have, I’m not going to predict, but the point is most of our talent would either be in the minors, juniors, or on the leafs on ELCs, for development.
In this case, we would be hard-pressed to reach the salary cap ceiling. Look at LA. They have the second youngest team, and they’re at the bottom. Its not that they cant afford to spend, they’re just saving room, which is smart, and which is why Chicago fell apart.
If we even spent a single season not on the salary cap ceiling, I’m sure the fans would ask for cheaper ticket prices. The tickets are obviously expensive, especially considering the product that is being put out. In a rebuild, there would be no excuse for high ticket prices, the team would be losing consistently.
The problem is, MLSE is never going to decrease ticket prices. This is why a full rebuild cant happen.
Fans might like it but it couldn’t happen in Toronto because it would result in unfair ticket prices which will never go donw.
I’d venture 4 out of every 5 season tickets are held by either a) a corporation that gets a 50% deduction on its tax return; or b) a scalper
If they all dropped out then there would be an entire new fleet of corporations, scalpers and actual fans willing to pony up for tickets.
If ever there was a city that would keep the building full while rebuilding its Toronto, as evidenced by the fact that we’re allegedly even more hopeless than a tanking team right now and the place is still full.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
We’ve waited 43 years – what’s another 5?
This building will sell out until something major happens. Even as we continue to flounder near the bottom of the standings with no draft picks.
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
hockey is fun to watch
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Nope…corporations own less than 9% of seats (okay, most of them are platniums but we digress).
The majority have been in the hands of individuals and passed down over the last half century.
The Maple Leafs- making me certifiably insane since 1985.
by torleafsfan29 on Nov 30, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Really? Can you send me a link on that? I’d love to see the data. I’ve always wondered about it.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
i was trying to tell this to a whole crew of drunks at the pub on the weekend. they wouldnt listen….
“Corporations own 80% of the tickets, derp derp derp!”
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
burke did not drastically overpay the free agent signings……
lebda is a black mark (1$ is too much but…) any NHL defence under 30 who could potentially be good is worth about 800k to 1.4 mil – so thats not drastic – you take a swing sometimes you hit sometimes you miss
Armstong is overpaid by what 500k? a 2 to 2.5 mil 3 line (intangibles) player is ok by me as long as contributes – the guy got injured the jury is still out
Komi – was brought in as a top 4 dman perhaps even top 2 – 4.5 mil is a pretty good number for that – Q: if you were a gm what would you have paid him? A: around 4million
the guy is playing well enough and I suspect injuries have/are hampering his performance….anyways top 4 dmen cost money. I would have taken komi and i’m pretty sure most of you would have too – maybe i’m wrong.
versteeg is a little over paiud but again in the 500K mark – he could still very well be a 2nd line winger…..and if not is a great 3rd line scoring winger which I would allocate 2.5 million towards
… I hate lebda.
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 3:07 PM EST reply actions
a half-million here, a million there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Komi looks worse because we acquired Phaneuf and his 6.5. Dion makes Komi pretty redundant.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
not really, other than physicality they are pretty much polar opposite player types
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
your right, i should have phrased it better. If Burke already has Phaneuf on the July 1st 2009, he doesnt shell out that money for Komi. At least in my opinion…
Thats all I was referring to.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
if Burke had Phaneuf, he probably would have avoided Beauchemin
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
I’m still stunned that burke looked at this club a year ago and thought, “We need a stud defenceman.”
What they needed was .900 goaltending.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Absolutely, and he may be the steal of Burke’s tenure to date.
But I don’t think anyone looked at this team a year ago and thought about a d-man.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
availability probably, he made a push for cammalari, didnt float, grabbed something else he thought the team might need
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
But in Burke’s words, he looked at this team last November – when they’d won, what, 3 games? Toskala couldn’t stop a beach ball, Gustavsson was having heart issues and the team had the highest paid d-core in the league and he thought, “stud defenceman”
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
again, availability, Burke saw a young captian potential player who would crash, bang and fight for his team come into availability
was a forward of dion’s skill/potential/intangibles whatever there for him to scoop with his spare parts?
I have no idea
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
I have no idea
You and me both, dude. You and me both.
I think a lot of the discussion around here the past few days reflects this…be nice if we had some insight, but I don’t have any.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Well, he did trade for Giguere and then signed Rynnas, which is looking like an excellent Plan B, should Gus not work out, so he did address goaltending, did he not?
And if there’s a guy out there you think is a stud defenseman, don’t you go out and get him if he’s available? I don’t see it as mutually exclusive options, and neither did Burke, as it turns out.
My point is, Burke addressed the goaltending 120 days too late and handed the Bruins a lottery pick.
It’s great that they sought out Gustavsson, but if you’re back-up is a completely unproven Euro you might want to have a solid Plan B (or C?) in case things don’t work out.
Play the percentages, mitigate the risk…
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
I was addressing the point that he assessed the team in November. So 60 days from November to the time of the trades, not 120, but if you want to say they should have gotten another backup before the season started and have Gus go to the AHL, that’s a fair point.
He should have cut ties with Toskala before the season started because it was blatantly obvious that Toskala was terrible.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Actually, Burke said he knew Toskala was a problem during the 2008 training camp.
In November, he added the bit about the team needing a stud defenceman.
There’s a disconnect between these two thoughts and (in)action that I find strange.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
My point is, Burke addressed the goaltending 120 days too late and handed the Bruins a lottery pick.
That raises the question of whether Burke should have been concerning himself with whether the pick he’d already traded turned into a lottery pick or not. I kind of hope he wasn’t worrying about that at the time; once the trade is made and the asset is in Boston, good for them if it turns out to be a lottery pick. I wouldn’t want Burke to be making short-term moves (trades to get us a few more useless wins, but no playoff spot) just to protect the public perception of the trade. That sounds an awful lot like some Leaf teams in the 80’s, IIRC.
I understand your general point about the Toskala trade coming late in the year last season, but I think it has to be remembered that his eventual trading partner was the Ducks, who had internal budgetary concerns and who (if memory serves) likely couldn’t complete the trade until later in the season for reasons related to dollars and sense payable to Toskala and Blake.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
That’s a fair assessment and I should have been more clear about cause and effect.
Burke knew Toskala was toast in September. His back-up plan was an untested Euro kid and Joey MacDonald. It’s not hindsight to know that’s not good planning, nor did it mitigate an obvious organizational exposure.
The outcome of Burke’s poor planning was a lottery pick to a rival. And it’s an outcome that could have been avoided through simple preparation – not as a reactive, short-term tactic.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Fair enough. I agree that short-term, putting his eggs in the Monster McDonald basket was probably not the greatest idea. Long term, letting the Monster get some playing time (or at least planning for that to happen, unless some crazy hear ailment cropped up) while crossing days off the calendar until Vesa Toskala Liberation Day was a legitimate developmental strategy.
I’m still not convinced that any energy ought to have been devoted to protecting against Boston getting a lottery pick, though – even if one could foresee the outcome (and I agree that’s a reasonable supposition) I’m not sure it’s necessary or desirable to expend assets and/or managerial energy securing assets to improve team performance in the short term to guard against the pick turning into a lottery pick. Obviously, if a deal could be made to banish The Vesa in September, if it made sense long term you have to do it. I doubt there were many rival GMs in line prepared to help us out in that regard though.
It’s still possible that – long term – Burke’s plan for the goaltending turns out to be the right strategy. If Gustavsson continues to play like he has been of late, I’d argue that avoiding a short-term patch-up trade, enduring the Toskala shit show and taking the public flogging for giving up a lottery pick might be proof that Burke’s confidence in the Monster’s development was well placed. If so, it would also prove that he has the stones to do what he thinks is right for the organization, even though the hordes at the gate are clamouring for his head while waving pictures of Tyler Seguin.
On the other hand, Gustavsson could turn out to be more Patrick Lalime than Henrik Lundqvist, in which case, well…I think I need to re-stock the fridge with beer. Very badly.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
Gotta jet, time to go home, I’ll check back in on this thread when I get there. Nice chatting with you.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
Fair enough. I agree that short-term, putting his eggs in the Monster McDonald basket was probably not the greatest idea
It was a very high-risk, low-reward strategy and we all got to live through the results. Ugh.
Long term, letting the Monster get some playing time (or at least planning for that to happen, unless some crazy hear ailment cropped up) while crossing days off the calendar until Vesa Toskala Liberation Day was a legitimate developmental strategy.
I’m going to split hairs here. I think Gustavsson’s development could have proceeded independent of a decision on Toskala.
I’m still not convinced that any energy ought to have been devoted to protecting against Boston getting a lottery pick, though – even if one could foresee the outcome (and I agree that’s a reasonable supposition) I’m not sure it’s necessary or desirable to expend assets and/or managerial energy securing assets to improve team performance in the short term to guard against the pick turning into a lottery pick.
I think we’re pretty close on this one. My point isn’t that moves should have been made to limit Boston’s payday, rather, that simple moves should have been made to right the the Leafs ship. Simply upgrading what was, by just about every measure, the worst goaltending in the modern ear, would have kept Boston from getting a lottery pick.
Obviously, if a deal could be made to banish The Vesa in September, if it made sense long term you have to do it.
I would have waived Toskala.
It’s still possible that – long term – Burke’s plan for the goaltending turns out to be the right strategy.
I think Gustavsson could have continued to develop with any other veteran G in front of him.
On the other hand, Gustavsson could turn out to be more Patrick Lalime than Henrik Lundqvist, in which case, well…I think I need to re-stock the fridge with beer. Very badly.
I think the name you’re looking for is Cloutier.
Enjoy the beer!
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
I would have waived Toskala.
Now THAT would’ve gotten it done. Don’t know why I always sort of forget about that option. Good thing I’m not pulling the levers behind the MLSE curtain.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
What they needed was .900 goaltending.
this assumption is incorrect.
we all know the Leafs #1 need was a culture change
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
an ‘adrenaline bomb in the dressing room’
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
the problem was
the locker room’s speakers were too quiet
Hey, if you’re gonna call us birds you might as well call us chickens.
Leafs’ D gave up 29.8 shots per game last year, 12th best.
We scored 2.53 goals per game last year, to get to an even goal differential we would have needed .914 goaltending which makes sense right?
I’ll rank our offense by goals per game, defense by shots against per game and goaltending by SV%. That would have looked like:
25th Offense 13th Defense 10th Goaltending
Instead we were actually:
25th Offense 13th Defense 30th Goaltending
This year we’re:
27th Offense 4th Defense 23rd Goaltending
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* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I’d say if you’re average at everything you’re going to the playoffs, so 15th O 15th D 15th G = 45 total.
09-10: 68
10-11: 54
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
uhhh…
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
If all he’s doing is summing ranks, it’s better to be low than high. 1st in O, 1st in D, 1st in G would be a number of 3.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
re-read what he said. Avg=45=playoffs according to Chemmy.
Leafs were >45. Thats bad
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
And I just realize you meant year to year.
I will stop talking about this now.
Carry on
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
i guess im looking at it too much in hindsight…. id rather have Phaneuf/Beauch than Phaneuf/Komi, but maybe Burke would have viewed it differently
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
again, with the power of hind sight, I agree, but going from at the time, with the looming Kaberle trade, no real big money on D, thats why i think he goes for the dion/komi pairing
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
i remember being more excited about the Beauch signing, I always regarded him as being better than Komi. But I HATED Komi as a hab….
But I can see Burke viewing Komi as more of a ‘marquee’ guy and someone he would have signed regardless I guess… thus passing over beauch since he would have had his big pairing in komi/phaneuf
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
I also think if Burke had Dion that summer, Kaberle would have been traded, since Phaneuf would be there to “fill the offensive roll”
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
yea, good chance that happens.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
pretty much polar opposite player types
How so? Not trying to be difficult, legitimately curious.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
Phaneuf, carries the play offensivly, likes to have the puck, big booming shot, can (apparently) score on the PP, not known for being a stud in his own end
Komi, handles the puck like a grenade, not very mobile, but known to be a fearsome defender in his own end blocks shots like a mofo, laughable on the opposing blue line
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
The reality – so far – as Leafs, though, has them converging into some degree of similarity, wouldn’t you agree?
*injury prone
*I haven’t done the math, but I’d guess they’re both around 1/3 ppg as Leafs
*Phaneuf’s shot from the point has frequently been a source of disappointment, only marginally better than Komi’s so far
*Komi’s defensive studliness has been somewhat in question this year (very much more so early on this season, I agree he’s been much improved of late) and Phaneuf’s defensive blunders have been of the front page news variety
I’ll grant you Phaneuf as the much better puck mover, but I’m not so sure – sadly, for the Leafs – that there has been such a huge difference betwixt the two as Leafs.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
eh, im looking at it from a natural skill set standpoint
also i dont think dion getting diced by a skate counts as injury prone
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Me neither, the guy is regularly pretty healthy
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
I agree with you from the perspective of how they ought to be able to perform.
As for the injury prone thing, I’m not suggesting Phaneuf is Sickly McSplodeybones v 3.0, but some guys play the game in such a physical way that they inevitably get hurt some way or another.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
Overpaid amounts for guys signed through at least next year
Lebda – $1.4
Armstrong – $1
Komi – $500k
Versteeg – $1
Phaneuf – $2
Orr – $500k
Total: $6.4M in having 6 overpaid players. That’s a whole lotta scratch.
Certified Grabbo Lover
we could have three fingers? thats almost a full hand!
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
ah fuck, all i have is a lebda and an exelby
fold
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
If Armstrong is $1M overpaid, then Versteeg is paid right, because isn’t the consensus that Versteeg can/will score about 20-25 goals.
I like Armstrong, but I don’t think he sniffs 15.
So, by that Math, i’d say either Versteeg is $500k overpaid, or Armstrong is $1.5M over.
Otherwise, ya
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
This assumes all these players underperform their contracts next year. Phaneuf, Versteeg are both young.
Secondly, isn’t this only one side of the equation, though? Isn’t it reasonable to think that some players might outperform their contract? Schenn, Kadri, Monster, Aulie, etc.
Thirdly, how does this value compare with other teams in the league? Is it really a lot?
This isn’t a net sum of zero equation. The more money you can save by limiting overpaid players and maximizing underpaid players, the better your team will be. The one team with overpaid players doing well at the moment that I can see is Montreal; Gomez, Cammalleri, Hamrlik.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Understood, that it’s more desirable to have fewer overpaid players, but I think it’s pretty much impossible to not have guys underperform their contract. I’m not certain $6M is a big number, especially spread over 6 guys, on a team that is below the cap and looks to have cap flexibility going forward.
obviously you don’t want to overpay and save where you can
but like who in this league is earning the exact right number?
under paid players on ELC
players who did not test FA and signed to hometown discounts
players who bottomed out and are on 1 yr deals trying to prove their worth a la macarthur.
worthwhile FA signings will sign for a little bit more than are truly worth because other wise they would be signed by their own teams
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
but like who in this league is earning the exact right number?
On the Leafs alone: Beauchemin, Grabovski, Kulemin, Brown, Sjostrom, Kessel, Gustavsson.
Certified Grabbo Lover
hell, at his current level of play id say Gus would make at least a mill more on the market
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
So, Schenn is overpaid?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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Can underpaid be an option? Cause he’s underpaid which is inherent for ELC contracts.
Certified Grabbo Lover
2010-11 $65,000 $875,000 $2,100,000 — $2,975,00
If he hits his bonuses, is he overpaid?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Gotcha
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
So if he signs a 3/$10.5M contract in the summer, you will be okay with this?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Right now, Schenn is playing about as good as Beauchemin but has more potential. So $3.5M for 3 years? Make it $3.5M for 5.
Certified Grabbo Lover
I only said 3 so that he can be an RFA again at the end of that contract.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Fair point
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
No he’s not. Beauchemin sees way tougher minutes.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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non-seequitor
this fascinates me.
is there somewhere that puts a dollar figure on points/stats?
Honestly curious as to how over/underpaid can be determined.
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
I think its a matter of opinion more than anything. For example: John Mitchell makes league min, and I think he is overpaid.
Yes obviously hyperbole
Fairweather fans can go to hell
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Agreed seems like just randomly picking numbers.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Scott Gomez
Chris Drury
Wade Redden
Jeff Finger
I randomly picked those players.
Certified Grabbo Lover
I’m not saying there aren’t overpaid players, nor that it is impossible to find out by how much they are overpaid, but it just seems very subjective is all.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
it’s also a bit dependent upon the time frame.
for example, let’s say MacArthur never puts up another point for the rest of the season. He then ceases to be a bargain or steal or “underpaid”. In the now though, he’s very much all three of those things.
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
When I do salary predictions, I look at the two previous years of RFA and UFA signings.
There aren’t many players so it’s pretty easy to build a spreadsheet you can sort to find comparables.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
I’m wondering if Behind the Net and Capgeek could do something that combines their two specialties.
that would be brilliant and fascinating stuff to look through.
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
They had a “deals tracker” on capgeek finding the best points per dollar, but have taken it off.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Imagine going beyond points though. Having a Points per 60, GVT, QualComp and QualTeam all with associated dollar figures.
That’s some advanced stats I could get into
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
I thought you would rather not know what anyone was paid, in for a penny in for a pound?
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
i don’t care what anyone makes.
I’d just find it interesting to see it broken down.
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
I’m wondering if Behind the Net and Capgeek could do something that combines their two specialties.
I would love that.
TSN and NHL both usually have an RFA/UFA tracker where you can pretty quickly pull salary data…
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
lebda doesn’t count because he’s an “anomoly”
phaneuf is not burke’s contract – can you really argue that deal? that’s likely the best leafs deal made in like 20 yrs….
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Doug Gilmour would like a word with you…
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
doug gilmour was traded for aprox. 20 years ago im at work I’ve got no time to look for dates……..the phaneuf trade is probably the best trade the leafs have made since gilmour………except trading toskala and blake together was pretty amazing as well
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
uhhh.. MATS SUNDIN would also like a word with you
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking mats trade was 1990 I am wrong
you are right Fuhr was garbage and they got pupp and ander out of him which was a great trade (however consider they traded anderson/berube/damphousse/ing/scott thornton/luke richardson for fuhr 3 yrs prior)
mccabe – couterpoint fuck mccabe
tucker – a point for you
yushkevich for a first is not something for nothing / philly did get dainius zubrus out of it. it’s not such a fleecing
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Fuhr was garbage?
This is perhaps some other Fuhr of which we have not previously been aware?
Leaf, the universe and everything.
Now in year 44 of the 42-year saga.
in Toronto
he of the blelow .500 win% – below .900% sv% – mid 3’s in GAA
yeah I think it’s safe to say he wasnt “great” anymore…
(as an aside – I watched grant fuhr play for the hawks in the AHL , I was a huge jets fan, do not question my love of the fuhry )
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
a sub .900 sv% was fairly normal in that era. Weren’t too many cracking that 90%
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Did you happen to notice the team that played in front of him?
I was a Bester fan, but Fuhr was the best Leaf goalie I’d ever seen. Numbers don’t tell everything. Those games where Gus robs the opposition blind and still posts a sub-.900 save percentage? That’s Fuhr.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
Now in year 44 of the 42-year saga.
In 1993, the 5th best save percentage in the league was .900. Right now that is .928.
The experiment failed: Get rid of the trapezoid.
mccabe – couterpoint fuck mccabe
wow. The Leafs got tremendous value out of McCabe during his tenure, despite the headline grabbing mistakes he would make every now and then, especially towards the end of his tenure.
The dude was a monster on the PP and considering what we gave up in karpotsev, this was a freaking steal of a trade. Dude also did ‘the right hing’ and waived his no trade, he didnt saddle us with a bullshit cap hit like Tucker.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
my point was we traded nothing and got phaneuf in return
a first round pick that turns into zubrus is not nothing
I dont like mccabe – i stand by my statement
johnson was not nothing either but sure was not tucker either
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
but we didnt trade nothing, this team sorely misses hagman,stajan and whites offence.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
do not mock Hagman.
the other guys sucked but Hagman was money well spent, and he’d still be good value and a useful addition to the Leafs right now.
:(
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
im not mocking, im agreeing with you! Dude would be awesome to have right now
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
The McCabe trade was a fleecing. Guy was an all-star, made the taxi squad on Team Canada and got Norris consideration.
Yushkevich was a beast in Toronto. One of my all time favorite Leafs.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Also, Florida seems to like him as they’ve made him Captain, it may have been you who made the Phaneuf comparison and I think that’s bang on.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
are you the other pro-McCabe person here?
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
I’m sure there are others.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
i don’t think so…
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I love Hagman too.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
I think McCabe got a raw deal here.
"That’s why stats are so important – anecdotal evidence just doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about history." - Bower Power
by The '67 Sound on Nov 30, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
Knew there were others!
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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Follow my foray in fancy facial follicles
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
I absolutely loved Yushkevich. Remember in the playoffs against Philly when the docs told him that he might die if he played, and dude had to be like physically ejected from the building to keep him off the ice?
Awesome.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER
Wait.
Just to be clear.
You think Phaneuf is the best Leaf trade since Gilmour? Phaneuf of the 2 goals, injuries, inability to hit the net and massive contract?
In no particular order, I’ll take:
Andreychuk, Puppa and Jonsson for Fuhr
Mats Sundin for Clark
McCabe for Karpotsev
Darcy Tucker for Mike Johnson
Yushkevich for a 1st
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
I feel like the"Phanef can’t hit the net" myth has replaced the “Kaberle never shoots” myth
Phaneuf leads the league in shots per game for d-men this season. Or, in other words, he hits the net.
That said, his shot selection is positively Blake-ian
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
If you crunch the numbers, he’s pretty awful. Last time I checked, he was 129th out of 200+ D-men in terms of just hitting the net.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
This season he’s averaged 3.36 shots per game. Of course, it’s half as many games as the second guy on the list (Weber @ 3.32) and half as many points too (Phaneuf – 4, Weber – 8)
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
If you go to behind the net they have a measure for shooting accuracy – how many shots actually make the net (as opposed to how many on net go in). Last time I looked at that data, Phaneuf was in the bottom half of the league.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Isn’t a “shot” something that hits the net?
This isn’t shots attempted, but shots actually on goal. Regardless of their outcome (goal, save).
Hockey-Reference does the math, and you can sort by Shots Per Game in their Play Index portion. I went back and included 2008-current, and Phaneuf shows as having the second highest SPG rate over that time.
If I’m misunderstanding their definition of shot (meaning, not an attempt but something that hits the net) then disregard…
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
What I want to know is, how often Phaneuf hits the net (hence the running commentary of “not very often”).
Behind the net has data on both the shots that hit the net and those that miss the net. If you look at that data, Phaneuf has a really hard time getting his shots on net compared to other D-men in the NHL.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
so the league’s count of a shot is not one that hit’s the net?
Noticing the discrepancy on Phaneuf’s totals this season, BtN has 22, NHL.com has 37.
That confuses me. I always understood the “shot” stat as something that hit the net.
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
My understanding of the NHL’s “shot” is one that hits the net. Unfortunately, I don’t think they track missed shots. You have to go to BtN for that.
BtN often splits their data into PP and PK situations, so 22 might refer to his ES shots…
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
doh
it’s ES only. didn’t notice that…
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
it’s handy, but it’s also a PiA when you’re doing a copy/paste job.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Did the math, and yes it's 5on5 only
Phaneuf has 22 shots on net, 10 missed. That’s a missed % of 31.25% and ranks him 96th among NHL defensemen with min 10 GP (200 total)
For comparison’s sake:
Kaberle – 32%
Schenn – 30.8%
Beauch – 34.1%
Komi – 34.6%
Lebda – 38.5%
Gunnar – 38.5%
Aulie – 50% 1 for 2
Holzer – 0% 1 FOR 1 BABY!!
Certified Grabbo Lover
Interesting. I thought he was shooting more this season, but that data makes it seem he should be firing the puck even more. I’m not sure I think Komi should have the same shot total with 3.5 less minutes a game.
Foooooood.
by fatassjackson on Nov 30, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
i don’t want you to do this, because it sounds like a lot of work, but I wonder if you took those 200 d-men, and divided it further by minutes played, how things would shake out.
I don’t mean Phaneuf would look better, just curious if TOI has any impact at all on the volume/percentages of shots…
When I grow up, I want to be just like Godd Till
by blurr1974 on Nov 30, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
Chad Kilger for a 3rd!
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Nov 30, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
A great NCAA UFA signing out of Bowling Green. I was really excited when the Leafs landed him.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
phaneuf is not burke’s contract – can you really argue that deal? that’s likely the best leafs deal made in like 20 yrs….
Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh…….what?
Certified Grabbo Lover
ill talk slower
buuurke did noooot negotiaateee the salary which phaneuf is earning…are yousaying you would be happier with stajan(4mil)/meyers/hagman/white (3mil)
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
But Burke acquired him and his contract. In a hard cap league you’re only as good as your deal.
Player A is a good player at $2M but a horrible player at $6.5.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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I agree with your point ; however, how far off the scale is phaneuf’s salary…
1 mil – 2mil
where’s the treshold ?/ Player Pha is good at 4.5 Mil but “horrible” at 6.5 mil
just how ’horrible" does it make him?
I don’t think his salary is so far off the chart that it makes that deal bad….
we got rid of nothing for something
i know someone will argue white is not nothing but he essentially is a 3rd pairing dman ( dont get me wrong I liked white )
by goaltender interference on Nov 30, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
Player A is a good player at $2M but a horrible player at $6.5.
I completely disagree with this assessment. A player is good based on his ability not compared to his contract. To say Phaneuf is a good player if he was being paid $2M but not at $6.5M is not really fair.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
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good value may be the better word.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Nov 30, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
lebda doesn’t count because he’s an "anomoly"
The Leafs negotiated that deal and it goes against their cap. He counts.
Bitter Leaf Fan: Skepticism, not cynicism.
Loser's curse and the cap keep free agency from working.
Performance declines due to aging are systematically underestimated. This means overpayment for free agents is even worse than the winner’s curse would predict. You can’t fit enough overpriced free agent talent under the cap to build a good enough roster to compete for the Cup. Trade talent is not as likely to be overpriced but its not at the entry level discount. Still a problem. Without sufficient discounted talent its impossible.


































