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The Leafs Decline In Penalty Kill and Mike Zigomanis

Editor's Note: JippyCorp takes a look at the Leafs' penalty kill and the impact of face-offs. The focus is on Mike Zigomanis but for those wondering how John Mitchell continues to get run out there the post has a hint on at least one aspect.

I was wondering the other day why our penalty kill had gotten so bad recently after starting out so strong.  Our back end hasn't changed much - with the exception of Dion Phaneuf being out, however Schenn for the most part has been the leader in short handed ice team most of this season.  The forwards who play on our penalty kill also haven't changed much, Sjostrom, Brown and Brent are our main stays, Mitchell shows up now that Zigomanis are gone, with the occasional hope for offense from both Grabo and Kessel.  For the most part though our penalty kill has remained the same with the forwards from the beginning of the season with Brown, Sjostrom and Brent... so what has changed?

Zigomanis.

I decided to take a further look into it, how can one player - one quarter of our forward group on the penalty kill make such (if any) of an impact? 

Star-divide

We have to look at his first obvious skill and that is his faceoff ability, and winning a faceoff in the defensive zone while killing a penalty is huge - that win can result in an easy clear which could eat 15-30 seconds off of the clock.  I originally expected Zigomanis to be a beast on faceoffs, especially short handed, and if we take a look at Zigomanis' faceoff ability you can see that he is a very solid faceoff man:

Total Faceoffs: 40
Faceoffs won: 21
Faceoffs lost: 19
Faceoff %: 52.5


Not bad, now let's see how he does short handed:

Total Short handed Faceoffs: 13
Faceoffs won: 7
Faceoffs lost: 6
Faceoff SH %: 53.8


Just above 50% faceoff percentage is not a bad thing to have on the penalty kill, how does this stack up against the rest of the team?

Tyler Bozak
Total Short handed Faceoffs: 8
Faceoffs won: 4
Faceoffs lost: 4
Faceoff SH %: 50


Mikhail Grabovski
Total Short handed Faceoffs: 8
Faceoffs won: 1
Faceoffs lost: 7
Faceoff SH %: 12.5


Tim Brent
Total Short handed Faceoffs: 57
Faceoffs won: 24
Faceoffs lost: 33
Faceoff SH %: 42.1


John Mitchell
Total Short handed Faceoffs: 18
Faceoffs won: 15
Faceoffs lost: 3
Faceoff SH %: 83.3

I think we can see why John Mitchell is playing now, an amazing 83% winning percentage for short handed faceoffs (55.7% total faceoff wins).  This could essentially be the answer to the question as to why Johnny Mitchell is playing on this team instead of the with the Marlies - defensive and short handed faceoffs are important.  However if John Mitchell's faceoff percentage is so high, why isn't he taking more short handed faceoffs?  That will probably require an entirely different post... for now I'll stick with Zigomanis.. moving on!

Let's look further than faceoffs, let's look at what happened in those 8 games that Zigomanis played in at the beginning of the season:

Oct 7 vs MTL, WIN - 3-2
    3 times short handed, 0 goals allowed
    Zigomanis on ice for 1:18 SH (Forward Leader -> Sjostrom with 2:54)
    Total TOI: 4:02
    Leafs total PK: 100%
       
Oct 9 vs OTT, WIN - 5-1
    4 times short handed, 0 goals allowed
    Zigomanis on ice for 4:32 SH (Forward Leader -> Zigomanis)
    Total TOI: 12:14
    Leafs total PK: 100%
   
Oct 13 vs PIT, WIN - 4-3
    3 times short handed, 1 goal allowed
    Zigomanis on ice for 1:32 SH (Forward Leader -> Sjostrom with 1:41)
    Total TOI: 4:41
    Leafs total PK: 90%
   
Oct 15 VS NYR, WIN - 4-3 (OT)
    5 times short handed, 0 goals allowed
    Zigomanis on ice for 4:01 SH (Forward Leader -> Zigomanis)
    Total TOI: 7:16
    Leafs total PK: 93.3%
   
Oct 18 vs NYI, LOSE - 2-1 (OT)
    3 times short handed, 1 goal allowed
    Zigomanis on ice for 1:27 SH (Forward Leader - Brent with 1:51)
    Total TOI: 6:06   
    Leafs total PK: 88.8%
  
Oct 21 vs NYR, LOSE - 2-1
    2 times short handed, 0 goals allowed
    Zigomanis on ice for 2:04 SH (Forward Leader - Zigomanis)
    Total TOI: 10:19
    Leafs total PK: 90%

Oct 26 vs FLA, WIN, 3-1
    3 times short handed, 1 goal allowed
    Zigomanis on ice for 1:00 SH (Forward Leader - Brent with 2:25)
    Total TOI: 5:37
    Leafs total PK: 86.9%

Oct 28 vs BOS, Lose 2-0
    3 times short handed, 1 goal allowed
    Zigomanis on ice for 0:17 SH (Forward Leader - Brown with 2:50)
    Total TOI: 5:13
    Leafs total PK: 84.6%

Now that 84.6% would right now put the Leafs in top 10 for penalty killing, fantastic.  Also, over those 8 games Zigomanis was a +/- 0, 1 assist, 4 PIMs, with 7 shots registered.   While 8 games is a very small sample size if you look closer at the above stats you will see that every time Zigomanis lead the forwards in short handed ice time there was not a single power play goal allowed.  Granted, it only happened 3 times.. but still.

So did Zigomanis make a big difference?  You tell me, here are the stats for the rest of the season so far - including the game on Oct 23rd which he was scratched:


Oct 23 vs PHI, LOSE 5-2
    6 times short handed, 1 goal allowed

Oct 30 vs NYR, LOSE 2-0
    1 time short handed, 0 goals allowed

Nov 2 vs OTT, LOSE 3-2
    4 times short handed, 2 goals allowed

NOV 3 vs WSH, LOSE 5-4 (SO)
    4 times short handed, 2 goals allowed

Nov 6 vs BUF, LOSE 3-2
    3 times short handed, 0 goals allowed

Nov 9 VS TBL, Lose 4-0
    2 times short handed, 1 goal allowed

Nov 10 vs FLA, LOSE 4-1
    5 times short handed, 2 goals allowed

Nov 13 vs VAN, LOSE 5-3
    4 times short handed, 2 goals allowed

Nov 16 vs NSH, WIN 5-4
    2 times short handed, 0 goals allowed

Nov 18 vs NJD, WIN 3-1
    2 times short handed, 0 goals allowed

Nov 20 vs MTL, LOSE 2-0
    1 time short handed, 1 goal allowed

Nov 22 vs DAL, WIN 4-1
    2 times short handed, 0 goals allowed

Nov 26 vs BUF, LOSE 3-1
    4 times short handed, 2 goals allowed

Nov 27 VS Ott, LOSE 3-0
    1 time short handed, 1 goal allowed

With those totals that brings the Leafs penalty killed to a pathetic 73.1%, which places at 29th overall.  What's worse?  Since Zigomanis has been scratched, put on waivers, and sent to the Marlies the Leafs penalty killing has been an abysmal 65.8%.  If it seems like every third penalty the Leafs allowed a goal, you would be correct in that assumption.

Would better penalty killing have made a difference?  It's impossible to really say, you can speculate that killing off a big penalty gives the team energy and we may have scored more goals in those games rather than allowed them.  Some of the games would have been one goal, or even tied games going into the end of the third period.  Would our record overall be better?  Probably, not by much, but it would be better.  In the end the Leafs inability to score goals is what is killing them, however if we can't score more than 2 or 3 goals a game then we definitely need to stop the other team from scoring, especially when the other team are on the power play.  Another big bonus to having a strong penalty kill is that our players won't be afraid of taking penalties, they can play the aggressive, banging style that they want to play without fear of every time they take a penalty will result in a goal against (or currently 1 in 3 times).  This leads to more energy, a stronger forecheck, more turnovers, more... dare I say it... truculence.

So I'm hoping someone out there knows more than I do, specifically why we aren't playing Mike Zigomanis.. or if we ever will bring him back up again?  I for one am hoping to celebrate Zigomania once again.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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This is a good fanpost. One thing that would make it a great one would be short-handed face-off stats for Zigomanis and the rest of the team. That would make definitely make this front page worthy.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.

by PPP on Nov 30, 2010 10:08 AM EST reply actions  

Appreciate the feedback, I quickly looked up those stats and was a little surprised at the results… added the changes :)

by JippyCorp on Nov 30, 2010 10:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Whoa

That Mitchell stat is insane.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.

by PPP on Nov 30, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah this is really good stuff. Thanks for the fanpost JippyCorp

Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up
And I'm on Tweetbook

by maplestirup on Nov 30, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Great read Jippy. Don Cherry was talking about this on HNIC. I have no clue why he’s not up here… They went from like 10th to 27th in PK when he disappeared.

by chawnsy on Nov 30, 2010 1:07 PM EST reply actions  

This is exactly what good fanposts should look like.

All facty and logical and the like. I like the surprising stat about Socks.

20 miles to Legoland!

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 30, 2010 1:40 PM EST reply actions  

Wilson just has to drill the holy hell out of them on the penalty kill. They look hopeless out there right now. It’s frustrating to watch and probably very disheartening for the players. They absolutely need to be better on the PK, there is no way they are going to win games with this kind of penalty killing.

The game tonight is going to be rough if the Leafs take penalties. What with that psychotic power play demon from hell Steven Stamkos. 73% is ridiculous, they need to be better. Here’s hoping the Leafs put in a good performance and win tonight. Penalty killing will have to be a big part of it.

by Jay! on Nov 30, 2010 1:45 PM EST reply actions  

Great job here.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
Frivolous Ornamentation

by Karina on Nov 30, 2010 2:16 PM EST reply actions  

Great post but...

I’m pretty sure Ziggy’s Faceoff % is 102 not 52.5

The Leafs have too many Urkels on the team, thats why our Winslow.

by Hi, my name is Pavol, its nice Demitra. on Nov 30, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

How do we start a “Ziggy for Orr!” petition? Remove one source of un-schooled penalties, and replace him with what looks to be our best PK guy.

Better kill ratio and fewer times short-handed sounds like a recipe for improvement to me…

This space for rent...

by fair_n_hite_451 on Nov 30, 2010 2:49 PM EST reply actions  

get a new drum to beat
that one will never be reskinned

Rule #20

by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Sad but true

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.

by PPP on Nov 30, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

 Wow Mitchell wins shorthanded face-offs, too bad everything after that is dog shit.

by 6rick6 on Nov 30, 2010 4:54 PM EST reply actions  

Over 80% is really important.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.

by PPP on Nov 30, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Well then it’s a good thing he’s sitting in the press box tonight against the 5th best PP in the league……..wait a minute…..shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.

Certified Grabbo Lover

by SkinnyFish on Nov 30, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Total Short handed Faceoffs: 13
Faceoffs won: 7
Faceoffs lost: 6
Faceoff SH %: 53.8

I love the enthusiasm and the dedication to putting numbers out here, but 13 faceoffs is WAAAAY too small a sample size to get excited about.

Here’s how to think about it: Let’s say his true faceoff percent is exactly 50.000%. He’s like flipping a coin. Heads you win, tails you lose. Flip a coin 13 times, and you have equal odds of getting 7 heads, 6 tails as you do 6 heads and 7 tails. You also have very good odds of getting 4 heads and 9 tails, and vice versa. Try it, get a coin out, flip it 10 times in a row and see how many heads you get… then do it again. Odds are it’s ABOUT 50/50, but odds are it isn’t exactly so.

Flip that same coin 500 times, and odds are you’ll get fairly close to 250 heads though. Maybe it’s 240, maybe 262, but the odds of getting 300 would be very small, and the odds of getting 400 would be astronomical (assuming the coin is fair).

Why does this matter? Well if you pull any random coin out of your pocket that you happen to have there right now, and flip it 13 times and get 8 heads and 5 tails, and I say “ah ha, that is an excellent heads coin, I will pay you $3 million dollars for it because it is so good at getting heads 61.53846% of the time,” then you would think I was insane, right?

In stats speak we deal with these problems by talking about confidence intervals. Assuming a coin is fair, and you flip it 10 times (and then again 10 times, and then again 10 times, and again and again), then 95% of the time you should get between, maybe 3 and 7 heads (I just made those up, but it’d be something like that). The larger the number of flips, the smaller that confidence interval gets as a percent of the total number of flips.
Flip a coin twice, and the odds are 50% that you either get 0 heads or 0 tails. Flip a coin 10 times and you have a 95% chance of getting between, maybe 30 and 70% heads. Flip it a 100 times and you’ll usually get between maybe 40 and 60%, flip it a thousand times, and you’ll usually get between maybe 49 and 51 % heads.

So Ziggy did about 50% in the faceoffs that he got. That’s good, in that it means he IS capable of winning NHL level faceoffs (my percent would be 0.000%, guaranteed)… but we can’t really be very confident that he’s better or worse than average on those numbers alone.

Sorry for the rant here… I don’t mean to be a jerk about this. I’m really glad you’re getting your hands dirty diving into the numbers, very commendable, and keep at it. But when you go fishing in them, one of the things that you really have to look for is larger sample sizes, otherwise you just can’t tell much of anything with any confidence.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. I think I need a drink now.

by Wan Ihite on Nov 30, 2010 6:19 PM EST reply actions  

Flagged for lack of Zigomanis love.

by samspade on Nov 30, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

leb’d

Rule #20

by JaredFromLondon on Nov 30, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I zig your leb’ding of the flagging of my own post.

(lord knows I love me some ziggamania, just saying that the numbers aren’t showing that same love yet. But I don’t know where to click to leb’d the numbers).

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. I think I need a drink now.

by Wan Ihite on Dec 1, 2010 3:08 AM EST up reply actions  

This is a very valid point which I did touch on (small sample size), and while I fully agree that a higher winning percentage while short handed is extremely important – the post was more geared towards his impact on the penalty kill. While he did take a very small number of faceoffs while short handed the overall penalty kill percentage was very high (top 10) while Zigomanis was in the lineup which dropped significantly as soon as he was removed from the lineup.

I appreciate the feedback and never considered you being a jerk about it :)

by JippyCorp on Dec 1, 2010 9:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, the team was doing better when he was in it. But, y’know, there was also a bit of coal you can point to in the Titanic’s boiler room that the ship was doing JUST FINE until they burned it. Correlation and causation, y’know. There’s a danger in taking a known good period and a known bad period and looking for differences between them, because odds are if you look hard enough you can find a whole bunch of them. And those things are worth thinking about, but until they replicate, or until you can build some other really good case for them, there’s a pretty good odds you’re just “capitalizing on chance”.

I think you’re onto an interesting notion that maybe Zig was good at faceoffs, and that would help the team… it’s a reasonable hypothesis to think about, but I see people here (PPP) cursing Wilson out for not having Zig up, and blaming the whole thing on him for that, and at this point that’s a very premature conclusion to get so excited about. Maybe the Leafs knew from practice that we really ISN’T that great at them, he just got lucky on a small sample to start the season. Maybe he is ok at them, but had other deficiencies that made up for that. I don’t know. It’s worth thinking about and analyzing, as you do here, but it’s not worth throwing chairs and rocks over yet.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. I think I need a drink now.

by Wan Ihite on Dec 1, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Welcome

Thanks for joining.

No idea to be honest. I would bet the Marlies’ PK is going to look awesome because the goaltending has been so insane.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.

by PPP on Dec 1, 2010 2:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Would be nice to see a Marlies expert comment on this, I know Zigomanis has been putting up points in the AHL (something he doesn’t do in the NHL due to his role/ability).. and I also know the Marlies have been tearing it up with wins lately, but that’s about all I know.

by JippyCorp on Dec 1, 2010 9:11 AM EST up reply actions  

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