History Lesson: Why Ron Wilson Should Get Fired ASAP

With him at the helm, the Leafs have looked much worse, even more so than the Maurice era. His style of coaching doesn’t work, whether it be his actual on-ice schemes or his off-ice criticisms of players.

Most of Leafs Nation, after yesterday’s game at least, should think that its Wilson’s time to go. The stats here reinforce this completely.

One thing I’d wonder is the underlying stats of each team. Some of these turnarounds are just a matter of the percentages turning back into each team’s favour.

As for the motivation issue, it’s hard to know what gets said behind closed doors but guys that Wilson has called out publicly have improved. For example, last year he talked about how Schenn had to get better and he did. He’s always been in Grabovski’s corner and he’s been rewarded with a much better defensive effort this year. He’s handled Giguere and Gustavsson, two guys that want to be # 1, so well that there is no dissent and both are performing.

Who the fuck do you hire is the better question.

another awesome example is Bruce Boudreau taking over for Glen Halon in 07. Never coached an nhl team before the caps and snuck them into the playoffs.

That is until their new coach took them to within one goal of the Stanley Cup.

Blackhawks won in 6 games, so technically Philly were one goal and one game from the stanley cup.

Interesting stuff.

I just updated it and seemed to have fucked up the HTML.

/runs away quickly.

The only question I’d have with your thesis is that there’s no indication a coaching change will lead to long-term success. Sure teams improved in the wake of a change, but how long does it last? That’s the real question. Because your examples are only from last year, it remains to be seen.

That said, if a coaching change was enough to get us into the playoffs, I’d be all for it. Hell five years is long enough that I would welcome some instant gratification.

I saw an article somewhere a while back (I think after the Pens’ coaching change) basically saying that new coaches seem to work out so well not because they’re better than the guy before, but since the players think “oh shit, we’re next!” and start playing better.

1. 10 coaching changes, and 7 improvements. Of the 10 though, I would argue Melrose in TB isn’t worth including. The guy was basically their pre-season coach. So really it’s 9 changes and 7 improvements. The problem is – as you’re already aware, this is an amazingly small sample. You aren’t including “new” coaches in your changed coaching group… which you probably should since you’re talking coaching changes of any sort.

2. You might as well include the coaching changes in San Jose, Calgary, Dallas, Edmonton, Atlanta, Florida, Colorado, Minnesota, New Jersey, Phoenix, and on the Island while you’re at it since they all happened in the same time frame.

Atlanta replaced John Anderson with Craig Ramsay this season and so far they’ve gone from being a .506 team to a .536 team.

Calgary brought in Brent Sutter to replace Mike Keenan and went from being a .598 team to a ..549 team last year and then a .462 team so far this season. That’s getting worse not better.

Colorado brought in Joe Sacco and went from .421 under Tony Granato two years ago to .579 last year and .577 so far this year… new goaltending helps.

Dallas lost Dave Tippet to Phoenix and brought in Marc Crawford and went from a .506 team to .537 last year and .615 so far this year, that’s an improvement.

Edmonton has had two new coaches in the past two years, and they went from .518 under Craig MacTavish to .378 under Pat Quinn last year, and they’re .364 with Tom Renney this year…. they’re getting younger though, and worse.

Florida brought in Pete DeBoer three years ago to replace Jaques Martin (also the outgoing GM), and they went from .518 to .567 his first year. Then the drop off in talent occurred and they’ve gone down to .470, and then .417 this year so far.

Minnesota lost Lemaire two years ago, and now have Todd Richards behind the bench. They went from .543 two years ago to .512 last year (which is worse), but they’re .615 so far this season.

New Jersey brought in Lemaire for one go around last year and went from .646 under Brent Sutter to .622 under Lemaire. Then they brought in John MacLean this year and they’re at .300… I’m not sure if we should blame the coach here though?

Islanders went from .482 under Ted Nolan 3 years ago to .372, then .482, and now .357 under Scott Gordon… that’s sort of treading water really. Injuries might be to blame.

Phoenix brought in Dave Tippet and improved drastically last year up to .652 rather than the .482 we saw under Gretzky. They’ve dropped back to reality though and sit at .462 this year so far.

San Jose went from Ron Wilson to Todd McLellan and have gone from .659 under Wilson to .713, .689, and now .542 this season.

In addition the Lightning have changed coaches again, Guy Boucher is .615 with a developing but revamped roster that Tocchet took to a .488 record last season.

3. We’re talking about improving on a coach’s short tenure in a single season while playing out the rest of the string… I’m not sure that makes a lot of sense. Comparing overall records might be better, but since rosters change so much, I’m not sure that makes a lot of sense either.
 
Using the addition of all those off season shifts, you now have 9 examples plus an additional 14 changes… that’s 23 overall. 7 of 9 plus another 5 clear shifts for the better (of the 14 off season changes, they haven’t all changed things in a drastically positive fashion). That works out to 12 out of 23 changes being noticeable improvements.

In other words, it doesn’t do quite as much as we’d like to think it would.

This thread is getting serious now – a graph has been posted

Before the season started, a lot of people were in agreement that we needed to give the team 20 games before freaking out.
Calling to fire the coach counts as freaking out in my book, and although I appreciate the journalistic need to get a jump on an obvious topic, we need to give the team to the quarter-pole. If we are 3 or more games under .500 at that time, I will support the idea of change, whether in personnel or coaching.
We are currently at .500, and of course treading water in the NHL means falling behind, but with 69 games left I just can’t agree that a .500 points percentage represents failure just yet.

if the expectation was that the Leafs would be at best a bubble team in the playoff picture, and they’re playing .500 hockey and about how most expected them to, what exactly are we butt hurt about?

A lot of people are throwing around the notion that were a .500 team and we currently have a .500 record so why complain but honestly the past 7 games haven’t really spoke to the notion of this being a .500 team. It seems to me like the tactics this team is practicing doesn’t speak to the makeup of the team. Also I don’t know how RW is in the dressingroom but unless he’s the magical changed man like Phaneuf is supposed to be in there I don’t really see him as much of a motivator. In fact it would seem to me like RW just perpetuates a nasty mood in the room.

1. Is there a particular reason you’ve singled out coaching changes that occur during the season?

2. Your data shows a trend of a bump in post-change performance. Assuming this is a causal relationship (I’m highly skeptical of this, but let’s run with it for now), is a bump what management should be looking for? Are bumps often indicative of longer term success?

3. Do we know enough about the teams making changes to conclude that their pre-change non-coaching circumstances were similar enough to our current non-coaching circumstances to make this comparison at all? I feel like there are gazillions of uncontrolled variables here.

My own two cents is that almost any coaching change in November is premature. This team specifically? Now that Burke has more or less his roster in place, the pressure has to fall on Wilson this year, but I’d give him longer. I also don’t think the team’s current state is enough to hang him. We’ve played mostly well against weak teams, mostly poorly against strong teams, and have a mixed bag of results against the middle. That’s an awful lot like how I’d expect being a bubble team to smell, and a bubble team is what most of our roster-based predictions called for. Talk of streaks is pointless if it doesn’t consider who we played during those streaks.

So what are the characteristics of bad coaching then?

This was something of a hot button issue at about this time last year with the Blues. I, at that time, was on the side of “Keep Murray” and remained that way up until his firing. Hindsight being 20-20, it was the right move, but it should have been done in November when the team looked horrid. And, of course, under the new coach the Blues are now off to their best 12-game start ever. Shows what I know.

Living state-side and being a fan of a Western Conference team, I obviously don’t get to see enough of the Leafs to get a gauge of what kind of shit they really smell like right now, but that record reeks of awful – especially after that strong start. And it’s not like there’s been a vast improvement with your team in the last 2+ years Wilson has been there, apart from the truculence side of it. But that’s all Burke, and I know you guys know that. Because you’re all smart and stuff.

Obviously Burke makes the final call, and hopefully what he decides is the right decision. But I’m here to tell you that it’s worked so far with my team., even if it’s just one example out of many, some going the other way.

Seems like you should also look at the records of the teams who did not change coaches in that time frame and compare their records before and after a certain mid-season point to see if the percentage change is meaningful or not. As in, maybe the team was going to get better anyway. Lots of teams go on runs, coaching change or not.

I’m not sure if I am for or against a coaching change. My feeling is that it lets the players off the hook. On the other hand, maybe the players need a change of scenery behind the bench. A good coach can make a difference in motivating young players to reach their potential. Is Wilson doing that? Well, he said the goaltending needed to get better: it did. He said rookies needed to step up: Luke Schenn. He’s talked about Grabbo’s faceoffs and giveaways, and I believe he is doing his job there now. So he’s called out the top line. Let’s see what happens. I would say if nothing has changed by the end of Burke’s Christmas trade freeze, then go for it.

But look at it this way: we started the season winning games we probably shouldn’t have won, then we lost some games we should have won, then we lost some games we deserved to lose, then we played well, but lost. The common theme is losing, but it seems like there’s not been enough time yet for things to even out. And as has been pointed out, 5-8 is about right, though 1-8 in the last 9 does look bad. Needs more time.

i think we’re at step 8: http://www.viewfrommyseats.com/2010/01/the-life-cycle-of-an-nhl-coach/

The Leafs are two points back of fifth with a game in hand…1/7th of the way through the season. After suffering through the worst season of goaltending I can remember seeing and having the roster gutted like a fish, what more did you expect of him this year? He can’t go out and score in shootouts.

In the last 4 games, the Leafs have been outplayed significantly once… by Boston… and that was largely due to the fact that the Bruins are one of the best teams in the NHL all around.

They should have beaten the Rangers and Buffalo, and they deserved a better fate in Washington.

That’s 3 out of the last 4 where they’ve played better than the opposition. Sure the results aren’t there, but this is how things swing back the other way. If the Kessel line starts to score, we’ll see them win again as our top two scoring lines produce at the same time.

Just wanted to say that.

By the way, VRN, I’ve always wondered… are you actually a neurologist (Van Ryn’s or otherwise)?

But this post was talked about on Puck Daddy radio today. Good job VRN.

I think Wilson is a terrible coach. His way of turning around a team’s struggles is to call for harder work, as you say. He is pretty much entirely destructive with young players, expecting more from them than they could possibly contribute and then lambasting them when they don’t reach his unrealistic expectations. He may even be stunting their development as NHL players. Basically, he’s the kind of guy who can help a good group of players reach their expectations (San Jose Sharks) but can’t come close to helping a team overachieve. Although the immediate impact of his coaching—basically, a losing team and a negative atmosphere—seems like it can’t get much worse, the effects of having his cynicism in the dressing room on the team’s younger players may very well have a negative impact on the team’s performance for years to come.

For these reasons, the Leafs should keep Wilson around for as long as is possible.

from March 7th to 30th, the Hawks went 3-6-2, with 1 win coming on OT. That’s 8 losses in 11 games… which is a .273 winning percentage, or 8 of a possible 22 points for a .364 points percentage.

The Leafs current stretch is now 1-5-3 in 9 games, which is a .111 win percentage, or 5 of a possible 18 points for a .278 points percentage. Our bad stretch this year is worse than the Stanley Cup winner’s worst stretch last year… but hey … they DO have bad stretches also.

This Leafs team needs to look at themselves and ask if they are giving their best every single game…this is their livelihood and it;s not excuse not to show up…Ron Wilson needs to work harder at getting the best from this team….He can’t play on the ice but he can control the way the players play the game…I would hate to see the Leafs sink to the bottom of the NHL…but that’s where they are heading unless Wilson can improve the team dynamics.

Being let go would be the best thing for Wilson. As much as I slag the guy, he must be in blue and white hell.

60 years old is getting closer, he has a nice place to retire to in the Carolinas. He can see his grandkid every day. He has oodles of great golf courses too. Maybe a boat on the ocean. His life down there looks damn good. And if he hasn’t put much coin aside, (which is unlikely) he still pulls down a few million for this year and next. Fatten up the old 401-K.

Even Punch Imlach ended up in Intensive Care during what was a 10 game losing streak. And that guy was mean as a snake and tough as nails; the one guy Conn Smythe couldn’t intimidate.

Do Ron Wilson a favour and let him go now.

If we fire him right now we might still have a chance. but if we wait 25 more games and then fire him our season will already be over by then. The Leafs actually look pretty good on paper. So I think we need a coaching change too. Fire Wilson! And if that doesn’t work then are we going to have to wipe the team clean and rebuild again?

Wilson’s record speaks for itself. The man can coach. Unfortunately he’s had very little to work with his entire time with The Leafs. My concern is this team has looked progressively worse in each of the last three years. Our special teams have seen stats being compared with the worst in history. They are losing in bunches and are actually off to a worse start than last year. That’s bad no matter how you spin it. The role of the coach is to develop systems on the PP and PK. We’re 26 in PP, 27 in PK. The role of the coach in to inspire his players, Wilson just complains about how uninspired they play. The role of the coach is to help build a team identity. This team has no identity. We’re supposed to be tenacious and truculent. We’re not. Is all this Wilson’s fault, maybe not, but coaches have been fired for a hell of a lot less.