Tyler Bozak: What Do We Have?
by Chemmy on Feb 17, 2010 1:17 PM EST
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PrintThis is an exciting time for the Leafs. I can't remember the last time we had a promising young playmaking center who wore #42. No I didn't forget about Kyle Wellwood but I didn't include "pear shaped" in my description and an omission that glaring implies a certain intent.
Tyler Bozak arrived as a player this pre-season when he personally stomped on Dany Sabourin's NHL dreams and things were looking good for the rookie. He started the season slow in the AHL and missed time with an injury and a case of H1N1 which is rumored to have caused him to lose 15 pounds.
In his first sixteen games (small sample size warning) he's scored 3 goals and added 8 assists good for 11 points. Over an 82 game schedule that projects to 15 goals and 41 assists for 55 56 (sorry, typo) points. Not bad for a rookie, right? That projected total would put Bozak one point behind Olli Jokinen, Jiri Hudler and Jason Arnott for points by a center, though all of them score more goals than Bozak.
His projected production (which despite being a small sample saw Bozak start slowly and heat up as the Bozak - Phil Kessel - Alexei Ponikarovsky line got ridiculously hot) mirrors Scott Gomez's last year; sixteen goals and 42 assists for 58pts. His production would also place Bozak ahead of Matt Stajan meaning that bringing Bozak in let us ship out Stajan in return for Phaneuf without sacrificing production from our top line.
The thing is, very few centers ahead of Bozak's projected production last year are his age (23 as of this posting) or younger; Anze Kopitar, Jonathon Toews, and David Krejci is the whole list. This isn't to suggest Bozak is a Toews or a Kopitar because with sixteen NHL games under his belt he could have gotten hot early and may yet turn out to be a total bust. The worst case scenario is that we didn't even use a draft pick on him and nothing ventured nothing gained.
Yet with any luck (Leafs fan alert: we're not lucky) Bozak will trend upwards as the Leafs become a better team and he gains more experience. In his short career he's already scored two highlight reel goals as he dances around NHL competition - there are flashes of brilliance there and if Bozak can tap into that consistently he's going to be a gem. I know this isn't the most in depth statistical analysis; I don't want to get into any advanced statistics because of how few games he's played in the NHL but I think it's good to take a look at one of our prospects and say "he's doing a good job". Let's hope moving forward he's capable of doing a great job.
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His projected production (which despite being a small sample saw Bozak start slowly and heat up as the Bozak – Phil Kessel – Alexei Ponikarovsky line got ridiculously hot) mirrors Scott Gomez’s last year; sixteen goals and 42 assists for 58pts.
Oh man, does this mean we’re signing him to an 8 year $51.5 million contract?
Thank you. I see you used to have a blog called “Zambonic Youth” it’s a shame no one posts stories there.
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That’s a big change from Till’s previous tagline (courtesy of Maclean’s):
Beautifully Bitchy
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I like this
Good start to regular playing for the kid. The most impressive thing: his face-offs. He’s been great in the circle.
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He also hasn’t looked out of place on the first line. Playing alongside Kessel and Poni has probably raised his overall point total, but in terms of poise on the ice he’s fit right in – he hasn’t looked overwhelmed at all. That said, I’d be surprised if he matures into a first line player – but what do I really know?
For players with 200 or more draws to their credit, Bozak’s winning percentage is 13th best in the league. For all rookies, he’s tops in the dot with 56.8%.
For the Leafs, he’s got the highest overall faceoff percentage. Primeau is second with 54.9%. Stajan is 52.5% on the season so far, so Bozak could be a step up (small sample size and all that…)
Unfortunately he hasn’t won a face off while playing shorthanded, yet. Neither has Grabbo…
Speaking of the PK, Rickard Wallin is a 37.84% in faceoffs while shorthanded, but 50% with the man advantage.
John Mitchell is tops on the PK and the PP with 54.29% and 55.17% respectively. Unfortunately he’s 47.83% at even…
Can’t win games if you don’t have the puck…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Feb 17, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
The Bruins defenseman that got embarrassed by Bozak to the point that his kids will tell their friends that their dad is a garbageman instead of a hockey player, was actually Matt Hunwick. Sabourin is the goalie.
Hopefully Bozak develops into a reliable second line center. Getting a top-6 forward for nothing is golden.
Fixed
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Fixed what? I know Sabourin’s the fucking goalie.
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2009-2010 NHL Games Played:
Matt Hunwick 57GP
Dany Sabourin 0GP
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I really like what I’ve seen from Bozak so far. He’s had some minor mis-adventures in his own zone, but considering how few games he’s played that’s certainly to be expected.
The Leafs site lists him at 6’ 1" 195lbs. I wonder if he can bulk up a little in the off-season as the Leafs are rather small up front.
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I think he bulked up considerably this off season, I would see him doing the same this coming summer.
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by Karina on Feb 17, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
speaking of his conditioning
what i like best is that he’s not Wellwood..
He wants it and has had to earn it. It can’t feel good to outscore every single one of your teammates by 2-1, and league-wide, outscore the #3 overall pick that year (Turris) and not get drafted.
Looks like he went to college, licked his wounds, and resolved to get to the show. He’ll never be considered big, but he can get enough size to withstand the punishment that a scoring forward with good hands like him will take. I really, really, like what I’ve seen in the kid. He’s taken the bumpy road yet is gaining speed.
He might turn out to be a bust, but if he is it certainly won’t be because he’s mailing it in.
Fun fact: Bozak was a teammate of Stars’ 5th round pick Jamie Benn in his BCHL days. Duncan Keith is a BCHLer too. Can we start scouting this league please?
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I think I just saw the first horseman of the Apocalypse tooling down the street here- mf37 is reasonably excited by a Leaf’s prospect.
/laughing
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As long as we keep the emphasis is on “reasonable”
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when i read it
the emPHAsis was on EXCITED
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Feb 17, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Did someone say Stajan
By what math is your projection of Bozak’s 55pts more then Stajan’s projected 59 exactly?
Stajan’s production is .73 ppg – over 81 games (he was benched once) that’s 59.13 points.
Bozak’s production is .68 ppg – Over 82 games (assuming that production rate for the year, and that he gets a full 82-game season) that’s 55.76 points.
Now, generally speaking that’s a wash, and I don’t argue that (so far) we’ve got an adequate replacement for Stajan, but let’s not go saying things that aren’t really true, like 55 being greater then 59 :)
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 4:13 PM EST reply actions
But he’s still got growing room. Maybe not as much as a 19 or 20-year old breaking into the league, but I think he stands a good chance of eclipsing Matty Stajan’s point totals at a corresponding age.
I’m not disputing that. I’m simply pointing out that with his PPG this year Bozak wouldn’t be outpacing Stajan even if it applied for 82 games.
I do think Bozak has a higher ceiling then Stajan, and his pace is impressive considering the challenges he’s faced this year – but he’s also playing with the Leafs top wingers and should be subject to the same scrutiny that Stajan was when he posted 15 goals and 40 assists last year playing with the Leafs best wingers.
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Well, you’re right that he’s not surpassing Stajan just yet – I’m not one of the Stajanhaters. I don’t think I’d apply the same scrutiny just yet, though. If Bozak turns in a 30-40 point season next year, however, I think there will be a lot of folks around here will be disappointed. That’s not to say that a sophomore slump means the end of his career as a Maple Leaf, but certainly, there will be increased scrutiny.
55 > 59 through Chemmy’s point that he did little to nothing at the very beginning (6P in 11GP) but has recently really upped the scoring getting 5P in 6GP. So he’s making the assumption that you can eliminate his alter his PPG pace due to such a small sample size.
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scratch that elminate part
I've always wanted to be a PPP Princess. You see kids, you can be anything you want to be; so long as Jay Leno doesn't also want to be that.
I know that 55 > 59. I was comparing Bozak to where centers finished last year. I’m not going to project out everyone’s points this year because I’m lazy. Note how every comparison in the post is to last year’s point scoring totals.
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I’m projecting Bozak’s points against points last year. I’m sorry this wasn’t more clear.
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No worries
But the production would be identical then, as Bozak would project to 55 points (15g, 40a) which are Stajan’s numbers exactly from last year.
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Bozak projects to 56 points, sorry. There’s a typo in the post.
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I rounded down, so I was being sneaky when you look at my math above :)
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
What would be interesting is a comparison on second assists – as that was the big knock on Stajan’s production from last year.
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Actually
When you compare BTN stats you get some interesting stuff:
08 Stajan QUALCOMP – 0.006
09 Bozak QUALCOMP – (-0.018)
08 Stajan QUALTEAM – 0.108
09 Bozak QUALTEAM – 0.177
08 Stajan Goals/60 – .51
09 Bozak Goals/60 – .87
08 Stajan Ast1/60 – .57
09 Bozak Ast1/60 – .29
08 Stajan Ast2/60 – 1.34
09 Bozak Ast2/60 – 1.45
Bozak’s sample size is really too small for these to be definitive numbers, but still, interesting at first glance.
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
The QUALTEAM jump is probably all Kessel.
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It’s way more Poni then Kessel. Poni’s rating is 1.05, whereas Kessel is 0.15 and Kaberle is 0.05.
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
Well there you have it.
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Rounded what down?
3 goals in 16 games gives you 15.375 goals over 82 games.
8 assists in 16 games gives you 41.000 assists over 82 games.
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I rounded down his .6875 to .68, which gave me 55.76, which I then rounded down to 55.
Because I’m sneaky.
Otherwise, your numbers are correct.
One caveat to this whole this is that Stajan put up his 55 points in 76 games. Had he had the extra six games he would have finished with 59.
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Had he had the extra six games he would have finished with 59.
You mean if he hadn’t been benched by Wilson for being terrible to start last season, and if he’d known to avoid being hit in the face by a soccer ball?
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Well
My point has to be valid if we’re taking Bozak’s 16 games, extrapolating his production over 82 games and comparing it with established centre’s stats from last season, doesn’t it? In fact, I’m assuming a lot less about Stajan considering the following:
Stajan was benched the third game of last season. He had put up zero points in the two previous games.
In between his benching and his injury Stajan put up 30 points in 32 games (9g, 21a, 0.9375 PPG).
He missed five games between December 27th and and January 7th.
After returning he scored 25 points in 42 games. Clearly he had lost some momentum.
Is it really a stretch to say that if he had played the five games (Capitals, Thrashers, Sabres, Sentars, Panthers) he lost to injury he might have picked up four points considering his record in the previous 32 games?
me: Hey everyone, Stajan is blah blah blah stats blah BTN stats blah
everyone else: Dude, he’s gone.
me: /cries.
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by Pamplemousse on Feb 17, 2010 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
Bozak will be a super star because
mf37 likes him and Chemmy is optimistic about his play.
If those aren’t glowing reviews, I don’t know what is!!
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Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Feb 17, 2010 4:32 PM EST reply actions
Someone please
tell me when it’s safe to say “I told you so”
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Feb 17, 2010 4:55 PM EST reply actions
Three days after he’s retired, but it must be before Damien Cox writes an article to the same effect.
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got it
marking my calendar.
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by blurr1974 on Feb 17, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Bozak is sure no Stajan
Which is awesum
by not norm ullman on Feb 18, 2010 2:06 AM EST reply actions
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