A Fox's Food for Thought: What to do with Tomas Kaberle?

Editor's Note: I'm bumping this on the morning of the trade deadline because it it one hell of a post that takes a great look at what defencemen have been moved near the deadline as well as what comparable trades have commanded. 

As any good Fox would, I've been thinking a lot lately about what is to be done with Mr. Tomas Kaberle. In order to make a prudent choice on a course of action, there are three questions we must answer first.

1. What are the odds that we get a player of similar value to Kaberle if we trade him? This may be difficult to assess, given that players are often traded for replacements that have completely different skill sets, but it's definitely still worth investigating. This leads me to my next question.
2. What exactly do we think we can get?
3. Given the choice, should we deal him at the deadline, or wait until the off-season? Let's take a look at some pros and cons.

For the purposes of my investigation, and for your own personal enjoyment, I have spent far too much time compiling a list of every defenseman that has been traded within a week of each trade deadline, and during each off-season since the lockout (see below). From this, I have culled specific examples that may prove helpful in modeling the yield of our friend Tomas. If you feel that I have neglected to mention an important deal that provides useful precedence for a Kaberle trade, feel free to make suggestions.

Question 1: To determine the likelihood that we can acquire a player of equivalent value to Tomas Kaberle, we need to look at the price tags of other premier, puck-moving defensemen. Try these deals on, just for size.

Feb. 26th, 2008: San Jose traded Steve Bernier and a 2008 1st round pick to Buffalo for D Brian Campbell and a 7th round pick.

At the time that Campbell was traded, he was in his last contract year, and was 7th overall in scoring by defensemen. (Note Wilson's comments about the trade. Interesting.) Our man TK, as we all know, still has one year left on that thrifty contract of his, and currently sits 3rd overall in d-men scoring. They still have comparable numbers at Behind the Net, but you can also throw in that Kabby has more international experience playing in the Olympics.

So The Sabres got what at the time appeared to be a great prospect, and a first rounder. Hmm. Bernier hasn't panned out like many had hoped, but what of that first rounder? They drafted Tyler Ennis 26th overall, and he is scoring at nearly a point-per-game pace in the AHL, which probably means that they have a good second line centre, maybe even a first line if he continues to develop well.

So did Buffalo get a player of equivalent value to Campbell? This obviously depends on how Ennis does in the next couple years, but odds are slim. It's also possible that he turns into another Jiri Tlusty. We may get more for Kaberle given his contract and Olympic experience, but we don't know that for sure.

July 4th, 2008: San Jose trades D Matt Carle, D Ty Wishart, their 2009 1st round pick, and their 2010 4th rounder to Tampa Bay for D Dan Boyle and D Brad Lukowich.

Like Campbell, Boyle has similar numbers at Behind the Net to Kaberle. Here's TSN's overview of the trade.

The 1st rounder turned into the 29th overall selection Carter Ashton who (aside from having two first names, that could also both be last names) is a winger that has 46 points in 56 games in the WHL. Not bad. 

Ty Wishart is a defenseman who has 26 points in 58 games playing as a 23-year-old in the AHL. Solid prospect, who can hopefully make the jump to the bigs next year.

Matt Carle is an interesting part of this deal. His point totals tell an interesting story. What to make of this kid? Certainly, he's got talent, but can't seem to play a full season or find consistency in any aspect of his game. It seems that they got Carle for Lukowich in this deal.

At the time of the trade, Boyle was almost exactly the same age as Kabby, and was one year into a six-year, $40M contract that included a no-trade clause that he waived to come to San Jose. That's a cap hit of $6.6M. In a way, Kaberle's contract is better, in that it provides shorter-term flexibility, but it also offers no longer-term security for his new team.

So. Did Tampa get an equivalent player back? The truth is, we won't know about either of these deals for another year or two, but I'm not sure I like the odds. That the Leafs likely won't see any positive impact for 2 - 3 years from a Kaberle deal is fine. We don't expect to contend until then, anyway. The bottom line is that if Kabby doesn't want to re-sign for a discount, we might as well try our luck with a prospect in a trade.

Question 2: So what exactly can we get for him? The last two examples are good, but a wider survey of trade history is better. Let's look at three more trades for defencemen that, in my estimation, were worth slightly more and slightly less at the time of their trading.

July 3rd, 2006: Edmonton trades D Chris Pronger to Anaheim for RW Joffrey Lupul, D Ladislav Smid, and a conditional 1st round pick in 2008. Note: the 1st round pick is acquired, because Anaheim reached the finals.

The problem showcased by this trade is that teams aren't going to want to take on a larger player contract (i.e. Pronger) without giving up some roster players to clear a little cap space. But once you accept some roster players as return for Kabby, the number and quality of picks/prospects goes down. Lupul? Smid? It's not that difficult to find different guys to put up 45 and 10 points per year respectively. And the 1st rounder Edmonton got? Of course, it was 30th overall, and the likelihood that it produces anything as good as Pronger is almost nil. What a terrible trade for Edmonton.

September 2nd, 2008: Ottawa trades Andrej Meszaros to Tampa Bay for D Filip Kuba, D Alexandre Picard, and a 2009 1st round pick.

 Wow, this was a STEAL. I would love to think that Kaberle would command such a return. Currently, Meszaros really isn't doing that well, has a cap hit of $4M, and Kuba has a hit of $3.7M. Kuba alone was probably more than enough, but then you also send Picard AND a first rounder?? We could con someone into giving us this much for Kabby, right?

June 20th, 2008: Philadelphia trades 2008 1st round pick to Washington for D Steve Eminger and 2008 3rd round pick.

OK, so this isn't exactly a trade for a marquee defenceman, but I think that it's worth noting that Philly gave up a first for decent-but-not-great D-man who would wind up playing a total of 12 games for them. At this rate of exchange, Kaberle is worth 6 first rounders. Stupid Philly.

Question 3: Should we try to deal Kabby at the deadline (try to convince him to waive that NTC) or wait until the off-season?

I have come to a conclusion on the matter: trade Kaberle in the off-season when we can get the largest number of teams, that is, not just the ones on his list of 10, to barter for him. I mean, what if only one or two teams on his list will talk trade? Of course, he really might not even give a list of 10 teams, and I think it's good that Burke respects his wishes, but let's say for the sake of argument that we have the choice of trading him now or later.

Waiting until July 1st allows Burke to discuss what kind of contract Kabby would want going forward. If we can keep one of the best defensemen in the league on our team for a cap hit of $4M, we'd be crazy not to do it. Dion Phaneuf does not fill Kaberle's shoes, and neither could any other defenseman on our roster. Gunnarsson still has potential, but the likelihood that he turns into another Kaberle is very slim. In fact, the odds that our return on a Kaberle trade yields a player as good as him are pretty slim, too - even after waiting several years for a prospect to develop.

Furthermore, there are plenty of examples of overpayments for big names in the summer (like the Meszaros one), so not to worry if Kabby is still a Leaf after March 3rd.

Here is a list of every defenceman traded post-lockout during the off-season and within a week of the deadline. Sorted first by off-season/deadline, and then chronologically.

Off-Seasons:

2009:

August 28th: San Jose trades D Christian Erhoff and D Brad Lukowich for D Daniel Rahimi, and F Patrick White.

July 27th: Toronto trades D Anton Stralman, LW Colin Stuart, and a 2012 7th round pick for C Wayne Primeau, and a 2011 2nd round pick.

July 24th: Carolina trades RW Patrick Eaves and a 2010 4th round pick to Boston for D Aaron Ward.

July 17th: Washington trades D Keith Seabrook to Calgary for "Future considerations".

July 9th: Edmonton trades D Tim Sestito to New Jersey for a conditional round pick.

July 3rd: Colorado trades D Kyle Quincey, D Tom Preissing, and their 2010 5th round selection for LW Ryan Smith.

July 1st: Toronto trades D Pavel Kubina and C Tim Stapleton to Atlanta for D Garnet Exelby and C Colin Stuart.

June 30th: Montréal trades LW Chris Higgins, D Ryan McDonagh, D Doug Janik and Pavel Valentenko for C Scott Gomez, C Tom Pyatt, D Mike Busto, and C Ben Walter.

June 27th: Calgary trades D Jim Vandermeer to Phoenix for C Brandon Prust

June 27th: Florida trades D Jay Bouwmeester to Calgary for D Jordan Leopold and a 3rd round pick.

June 27th: Phoenix trades D Sami Lepisto to Washington for 2010 5th round pick.

June 27th: Vancouver trades D Shawn Heshka to Phoenix for 2009 7th round pick.

2008: 

September 30th: Los Angeles trades D Sean O'Donnell to Anaheim for a 2009 Conditional Pick.

September 26th: Anaheim trades D Mathieu Schneider to Atlanta for D Ken Klee, LW Brad Larsen, and LW Chad Painchaud.

September 12th: Phonix trades LW Kevin Cormier to New Jersey for D Sean Zimmerman.

September 2nd: Toronto trades D Bryan McCabe and a 4th round draft pick in 2010 to Florida for D Mike Van Ryn.

September 2nd: Vancouver trades RW Ryan Shannon to Ottawa for D Lawrence Nycholat.

September 2nd: Ottawa trades Andrej Mszaros to Tampa Bay for D Filip Kuba, D Alexandre Picard, and a 2009 1st round pick.

July 4th: Buffalo trades their 2009 and 2010 second round picks to San Jose for D Craig Rivet and a 2010 7th round pick.

July 4th: San Jose trades D Matt Carle, D Ty Wishart, their 2009 1st round pick, and their 2010 4th rounder to Tampa Bay for D Dan Boyle and D Brad Lukowich.

July 4th: San Jose trades D Christian Erhoff and D Brad Lukowich to Vancouver for D Daniel Rahimi and C Patrick White.

July 2nd: Columbus trades D Fedor Tyutin and D Christian Backman to New York Rangers for RW Nikolai Zherdev and C Dan Fritsche

July 1st: Edmonton trades D Joni Pitkanen to Carolina for LW Erik Cole.

July 1st: Los Angeles trades D Patrick Hersley and LW Ned Lukacevic to Philadelphia for D Denis Gauthier and a 2010 2nd round pick.

July 1st: Minnesota trades RW Ryan Jones and a 2009 2nd round pick to Nashville for D Marek Zidlicky.

June 30th: Philadelphia trades LW Kyle Greentree to Calgary for D Tim Ramholt.

June 30th: Tampa Bay trades 2009 6th round pick to Philadelphia for D Janne Niskala.

June 29th: Edmonton trades C Jared Stoll and D Matt Greene to Los Angeles for D Lubomir Visnovsky.

June 24th: Philadelphia trades LW Tristan Grant and 2009 7th round pick to Nashville for D Janne Niskala.

June 20th: Philadelphia trades 2008 1st round pick to Washington for D Steve Eminger and 2008 3rd round pick.

2007:

August 1st: Vancouver trades C François-Pierre Guenette to St. Louis for D Zack Fitzgerald.

July 17th: The New York Rangers trade C Matt Cullen to Carolina for D Andrew Hutchinsonn, C Joe Barnes, and a 3rd round pick.

July 5th: The New York Islanders trade Allan Rourke and a 3rd round pick in 2008 to Edmonton for a 2nd round pick in 2008

July 4th: Tampa Bay trades LW Mitch Fritz to the New York Rangers for D Bryce Lampman.

June 22nd: Chicago trades D Adrian Aucoin and a 7th round pick in 2007 to Calgary for D Andrei Zyuzin and D Steve Marr

June 18th: Nashville trades D Kimmo Timonen and LW Scott Hartnell to Philadephia for a 1st round pick in 2007.

June 16th: Montréal trades LW Sergei Samsonov to Chicago for D Jassen Cullimore and LW Tony Salmelainen.

2006:

Septempber 30th: Montréal trades C Mike Ribeiro and a 6th round pick in 2008 to Dallas for D Janne Niinimaa and a 5th round pick in 2007.

September 29th: Los Angeles trades D Tim Gleason and C Eric Belanger to Carolina for D Jack Johnson and D Oleg Tverdosky.

August 17th: Anaheim trades D Vitaly Vishnevsky to Atlanta for C Karl Stewart, a 2nd round 2007 pick, and a conditional 4th round pick.

July 10th: Buffalo trades Jan Hejda to Edmonton for a 7th round pick in 2007.

July 9th: Chicago trades RW Martin Havlat and C Bryan Smolinski to Ottawa for D Tom Preissing, C Josh Hennessy, D Michal Barinka, and a 2nd round pick in 2008.

July 9th: San Jose trades LW Mark Bell for D Tom Preissing and C Josh Hennessy.

July 3rd: Edmonton trades D Chris Pronger to Anaheim for RW Joffrey Lupul, D Ladislav Smid, and a conditional 1st round pick in 2008. Note: the 1st round pick is acquired, because Anaheim reached the finals.

July 2nd: Dallas trades a 4th round pick in 2008 to Tampa Bay for Darryl Sydor.

June 26th: Boston trades D Nick Boynton and a 4th round pick in 2007 to Phoenix for D Paul Mara, and a 3rd round pick in 2007

June 24th: Calgary trades D Jordan Leopold, a 2nd round pick in 2006, and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2007 or 2008 to Colorado for LW Alex Tanguay.

June 24th: Atlanta trades C Patrick Stefan and D Jaroslav Modry to Dallas for C Niko Kapanen and a 7th round pick in 2006.

June 23rd: Vancouver trades LW Todd Bertuzzi, D Bryan Allan, and G Alex Auld to Florida for G Roberto Luongo, D Lukas Kracjicek, and a 6th round draft pick in 2006.

Trade Deadline (1 week before deadline or less):

2009:

Deals made March 4th:

Toronto trades D Richard Petiot for G Olaf Kolzig, D Jamie Heward, D Andy Rogers, and a 2009 4th round pick.

San Jose trades F Nick Bonino, G Timo Pielfmeier, and coditional picks to Anaheim for F Travis Moen and D Kent Huskins.

Chicago trades D James Wisniewski and C Petri Kontiola to Anaheim for C Samuel Pahlsson, D Logan Stephenson, and a 2009 conditional draft pick.

Florida trades Noah Welch and a 2009 3rd round pick to Tampa Bay for D Steve Eminger.

New York Rangers trade D Dmitri Kalinin, RW Peter Prucha, and LW Nigel Dawes to Phoenix for D Derek Morris.

Boston trades D Matt Lashoff, and RW Martins Karsums to Tampa Bay for RW Mark Recchi and a 2010 second round pick.

Boston trades C Petteri Nokelainen to Anaheim for D Steve Montador.

Pittsburgh trades D Danny Richmond to St. Louis for Andy Wozniewski.

Calgary trades D Lawrence Nycholat, D Ryan Wilson, and a 2009 second round pick from Montréal to Colorado for Jordan Leopold.

March 2nd: New Jersey trades D Anssi Salmela to Atlanta for D Niclas Havelid and F Myles Stoesz

Feb 26th: Dallas trades D Doug Janik to Montréal for LW Steve Bégin.

Feb 26th: Pittsburgh trades D Ryan Whitney to Anaheim for D Chris Kunitz and C Eric Tangradi.

2008:

Feb 26th:

Detroit trades 2008 2nd round pick and 2009 4th round draft pick to Los Angeles for D Brad Stuart.

Toronto trades Hal Gill to Pittsburgh for 2008 2nd round pick and 5th round pick in 2009.

The New York Islanders trade D Marc-André Bergeron to Anaheim for 2008 a 3rd round draft pick.

The New York Rangers trade 2008 4th round pick for St. Louis' D Christian Backman.

Colorado trades a conditional draft pick to Columbus for Adam Foote.

Florida trades D Ruslan Salei to Colorado for D Karlis Skrastins.

Washington trades D Ted Ruth to Columbus for F Sergei Federov.

The New York Islanders trade their 2007 7th round draft pick to San Jose for D Rob Davidson.

San Jose traded Steve Bernier and a 2008 1st round pick to Buffalo for D Brian Campbell and a 7th round pick.

St. Louis traded D Bryce Salvador to New Jersey for F Cam Janssen.

Philadelphia traded D Alexander Picard and a conditional draft pick to Tampa Bay for Vaclav Prospal.

Calgary traded their 2009 3rd round pick to Philadelphia for D Jim Vandermeer.

Philadelphia traded their 2008 3rd round pick to Los Angeles for D Jaroslav Modry.

2007:

Feb 27th:

Anaheim trades D Joe Rullier to Tampa Bay for D Doug O'Brien.

Washington trades D Jamie Heward to Los Angeles for a conditional pick.

Forida trades D Joel Kwiatkowski to Pittsburgh for a 4th round 2007 pick.

New Jersey trades D David Hale and a 2007 5th round draft pick to Calgary for a 3rd round pick.

Boston trades F Brad Boyes to St. Louis for D Denis Wideman.

Los Angeles trades D Mattias Norstrom, F Konstantin Pushkarev, 2007 3rd and 4th round picks to Dallas for D Jaroslav Modry, D Johan Fransson, a 2008 1st round pick, and a 2nd and 3rd round selection in 2007.

Washington trades F Danius Zubrus and D Timo Helbling to Buffalo for F Jiri Novotny and a 2007 1st round pick.

Phoenix trades Yannick Perreault and a 2008 5th round pick to Toronto for D Brandan Bell and a 2nd round pick in 2008.

The New York Rangers traded D Aaron Ward to Boston for D Paul Mara.

Florida traded F Gary Roberts to Pittsburgh for D Noah Welch and a 2009 3rd round pick.

Feb 26th:

Chicago trades Lasse Kukkonen and a 2007 3rd round pick to Philadelphia for Kyle Calder.

Los Angeles trades Brent Sopel to Vancouver for 2008 2nd and 4th round picks.

Washington trades D Lawrence Nycholat to Ottawa for D Andy Hedlund and a 2007 6th round pick.

Feb 25th: Montréal trades D Craig Rivet and a 2008 5th round pick to San Jose for D Josh Gorges and a 2007 1st round pick.

Feb 24th: Atlanta trades D Braydon Coburn to Philadelphia for D Alexei Zhitnik.

Feb 24th: Tampa trades G Gerald Coleman and 2007 1st round pick to Ahaheim for Shane O'Brien and a 2007 3rd round pick.

2006:

March 9th:

Pittsburgh trades D Ric Jackman to Florida for C Peter Taticek.

Vancouver trades D Tomas Mojzis and 2006 3rd round pick to St. Louis for D Eric Weinrich.

Dallas trades D Martin Skoula and D Shawn Belle to Minnesota for D Willie Mitchell and a 2007 2nd round pick.

Atlanta trades 2007 conditional pick to Vancouver for D Steve McCarthy.

Detroit trades 2007 4th round pick to Pittsburgh for D Cory Cross.

Nashville trades C Chris Beech and 2006 1st rounder to Washington for D Brendan Witt.

The New York Rangers trade a 2006 3rd round pick to Anaheim for D Sandis Ozolinsh.

Phoenix trades 2006 7th round draft pick to Detroit for D Jamie Rivers.

Vancouver trades D Brett Skipper and a 2006 2nd round pick to Anaheim for D Keith Carney and D Juha Alen.

Anaheim trades C Joel Pereault to Phoenix for D Sean O'Donnell.

Philadelphia trades LW Josh Gratton, and two 2006 2nd round picks (one from another team) to Phoenix for D Denis Gauthier.

Vancouver trades its 2006 4th round pick to New Jersey for D Sean Brown.

New Jersey trades a 2006 3rd round pick to The New York Islanders for D Brad Lukowich.

Montréal trades 2006 6th round pick to Chicago for D Todd Simpson.

March 8th:

Toronto trades D Ken Klee to New Jersey for F Alex Suglobov.

Los Angeles trades D Denis Grebeshkov, LW Jeff Tambellini, and a conditional pick to The New York Islanders for RW Mark Parrish and D Brent Sopel.

Toronto trades a 2006 5th round pick or 2007 4th round pick to Columbus for Luke Richardson.