The Word on the Kessel deal
As Kessel sniped his 28th goal of the season in last night's 3-2 shootout win over the Habs you can see why Brian Burke gave up two first round picks as well as a second rounder to get him. Not many players in the NHL have a deadlier shot and Kessel is almost sure to score when he gets an open shot in the slot.
Now debate has been raging all season because of how the Leafs have played this year and the fact they could have POSSIBLY had the chance to select Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin at this year's draft...but with Toronto's play as of late that may possibly change if they keep winning and they get some help from the teams ahead of them. No one would be talking about the two first rounders if the Leafs were in the running for a playoff spot in the 7th to 10 seed in the Eastern Conference which Burke counted on (as I did as well).
Looking at the Leafs roster at the beginning of the season the defense looked good enough to play well with the additions of Beauchemin, Komisarek and Exelby to returnees Kaberle, Finger, and Schenn. But no one could have predicted how long it would take the defense to gel and how bad Toskala would be and how steep the learning curve would be for Gustavsson (thankfully he has looked sold lately; 5 straight wins, allowing just 11 goals in those game).
But back to what this blog is about. The Kessel deal. Was it a good one? I think it was and I'll tell you why.
For the Leafs, 30 goal scorers don't come along everyday. And Kessel looks like he could score 40 (which is even rarer) given a full season and someone he has chemistry with (Bozak looks like he could play with Kessel, I'll delve into that in another blog).
According to hockeydb.com since 1990-1991 (18 seasons) the Leafs have had just 8 players reach the 30 goal plateau in a season. Nikolai Borchevsky, Dave Andreychuk, Mike Gartner, Sergei Berezin, and Alexander Mogilny all did it once for Toronto. Wendel Clark and Doug Gilmour eclipsed 30 twice, while Mats Sundin did it 10 times. So obviously it's difficult to find good consistent goal scorers...Sundin was one but he's gone.
Now Phil Kessel will be only 23 when the 2010-2011 season starts in the fall so he should provide 30 goal scoring for the remaining 4 years of his deal and provide the Leafs some scoring punch to help them back into the playoffs. With the trade Burke probably figures he has a fairly consistent goal scorer that's scoring now (some top picks take a half season or more before they can be counted on) and he can now focus on putting the other pieces together to get this franchise back to the promised land.
What Burke got in his trade was one of the young premier snipers in the game who is a proven 30 goal scorer with potential to get better. Kessel scored 36 goals last year in just 70 games playing mostly with one of the games top play-makers Marc Savard. This year he has 28 in 60 games (he missed first 5 weeks with a shoulder injury) playing with the likes of Mikhail Grahovski and John Mitchell. So Kessel will score goals no matter who he's playing with...he's that good. If the Leafs get a top line centre to play with Kessel or if Bozak continues to play well with Kessel he will have even more success.
What he gave up is still to be determined. With the addition of Dion Pheneuf and J.S. Giguere the Leafs have solidified their defense and have more solid goaltending (Giguere is a definite upgrade to Toskala)and the Leafs may have a late push to get them out of the lottery. And next year this team should be where I thought they'd be this year competing for that 7th or 8th playoff spot and away from the lottery pick. So likely the Bruins will get one of the top 5 picks this year plus a mid first round pick next year and a second rounder. Well worth the price for a talented and exciting player like Phil Kessel who will be bringing Leafs nation to their feet for awhile.
And as we know Burke has a talent for doing the impossible (moving Jason Blake's ridiculous contract)and he will find talent (eg. Bozak, Gustavsson) that will make up for the draft picks he traded.
The debate will go on for awhile especially if the Bruins land Hall or Seguin, but in my opinion getting Hall or Seguin this year is the only way the Bruins can come out on top of this trade after giving up such a dynamic player like 81. And even if they do get one of those two players we'll have to wait and see if they'll be scoring 30 or 40 goals in the NHL consistently.
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I didn’t like the deal at first, but if you look at it now, would you rather have given up Kaberle and Kadri for Kessel? Kadri looks to be the real deal and Kaberle could net us something in the summer as well. Plus the steal of Dion Phaneuf from Calgary didn’t cost us any picks, only 2 ufa’s a rfa and Nik Nagman. kessel has scored 28 goals this year with no training camp, no olympic break and sub par centremen until Bozak joined him. Also Seguin, Hall are unknowns until they play. look at it this way, Kessel or Tavares? I’d trade that pick knowing it’s Tavares now. Kessel looks to be better than Johnny T will be but I could be wrong. So basically what i’m saying is Kessel has proven this year that he is worth at least this years pick and a second. I just hope that we play all of next year like we are playing this March so Boston drafts lower in 2011 and I’ll call it an even deal. Plus seeing Boston struggle this year makes me happy.
Plus seeing Boston struggle this year makes me happy.
I think that might be the best part of it all. Well that, and the 28 goals he’s scored.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 21, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
long post comin' up
Its often said, whoever gets the best player wins the trade
So the question is would you trade hall / seguin / fowler for Kessel?
How about Tavares / Duchene / Hedman?
Or to really put things in perspective, how about Kadri?
Im not mentioning Ovie, Sid or even Stamkos because everyone knew those guys were gonna be a big deal, and noone thinks Hall or Seguin are gonna be that good
Kessel is the best offensive player the leafs have, period. I dont think he needs a centre so much as he needs other offensive threats on his line, so that Dmen dont just key in on him like they did in the winter. He has a lethal wrist, a pretty good slapshot, and he is a GREAT passer, probably the best passer of our forwards. He gets himself in position to be dangerous.
He has issues, like how at times I see him get too sloppy, too fancy. But, since the start of the Sundin era the only forward Ive seen better than this kid in a leaf uniform wore #13. Phil is the guy we always wanted to play with Mats. And HE wanted to come HERE, he chose to play on a historic team with a huge, die hard fan base, instead of wallowing in obscurity like some 905er (seriously, i was on a plane next to a university student from Ohio and he didnt know that the blue jackets were an NHL level team wtf??? demand a trade NOW rick, id give columbus 3 first rounders)
To be fair, Boston is a historic team with a very good fan base as well…….i think he got tired of the Bruins organization, who didn’t think a 30 girl scorer was worth 5.4 mil per year….. weird i know…..plus, he also saw Burke as a guy from the US national program and a guy i’m assuming he (Kessel) respects, not to mention us fans…..Toronto is a high-risk, high reward system for a player…….if you play well, you WILL be treated as a GOD & i guess Burke sold that to Bozak, Gus & Kessel.
And if Kessel actually puts in the offseason effort and tries, i think he can be a top 5 player in this league……he has all the tools, just needs to work hard
Toronto Maple Leafs: Looking at next year since 1967
Oh no disrespect to Boston, i was thinking of guys like Paul Kariya who stick to markets where nobody gives a damn. And Rick Nash… fucking Mason and his crazy season fuck him to hell
Profanity aside, couldn’t agree more. I’ve said this before, doubt he would have signed that extension this season.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 21, 2010 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t blame those players though…..why would you want to go to a place where you are scrutinzed when you can get money and term while playing with far less pressure. I guess that makes you argument about Kessel wanting to play here more clearer and yea….he costs 2 mil less so awesome
Toronto Maple Leafs: Looking at next year since 1967
by LeafFan1989 on Mar 21, 2010 9:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Cuz you have a fire inside you that you want to show on a big scene. Those players that relish the pressure and thrive in it are usually the ones that can bring you some success.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
by Chuck Diesel on Mar 22, 2010 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
The Bozak factor
Kessel and Bozak look to be developing great chemistry Bozak maybe not a premier centre but he looks like he has the goods to give Kessel space (blog coming on this in a couple days). And when the Leafs get a good second line that can consistently score that should make even more space for Kessel. Hopefully next year if Kadri can make the adjustment we’ll see Bozak, Kessel, Kulemin first line and maybe Kadri, Stalberg and someone possibly what we get for Kaberle will make up a nice second line. Then you have the plumbers like Sjostrom, Mitchell, Orr, in the bottom six.
by Paul Bradley on Mar 21, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
…while Mats Sundin did it 10 times.
The more you look at Sundin’s stats post-retirement, the more impressed I find myself with Sundin as a hockey player. And this is coming from a huge Sundin fan.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
Sundin was the best leaf ever…..I hope his jersey is raised next year
Toronto Maple Leafs: Looking at next year since 1967
by LeafFan1989 on Mar 21, 2010 9:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I really hated people who criticized him so much. What more do you want from a guy. He was absolutely a game changer and a sick maniac of a hockey player
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
by Chuck Diesel on Mar 22, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
PS he made trading Clark Ok.. it’s very very hard to make a Clark trade look ok. Not to mention our best defensive D of the last 20 seasons.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
by Chuck Diesel on Mar 22, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah the only thing you can really criticize about Sundin is that he should have shot the puck more. He had a great shot, was always over a 10% shooting percentage, was often playing with shit players, yet some years he only shot the puck around 250 times. Maddening.
the fact that he passed so much probably improved his shooting percentage because defenders didnt know how to play him
Who wants to go to the Olive Garden?
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 22, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
To add to your argument
from the Boston perspective…
Yes, no PJ Axelsson and a few key injuries to take into account but
With Kessel – top in the East and 2nd in over all goal scoring in the League
Without Kessel – Struggling to hold onto a playoff position(Cooke looping Savard didn’t help) and last in the League in goal scoring.
As I said to a Boston fan a few weeks ago: ‘Gee, the Bruins could sure use a Kessel-type forward this season’
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Mar 21, 2010 9:31 PM EDT reply actions
They could most certainly use his 6 game winning goals.
He has five for the Leafs this year.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 21, 2010 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You still overpaid
Boston couldn’t resign him and to just drop an RFA offer on him would have only cost a 1/2/3 so that should have been the maximum you should have paid. If you draft in the top 5 your second rounder is also gonna be a top 35 guy then as well. Even if its not Hall/Seguin, one of the picks you give up could be another Schenn/Kadri/etc player. The picks will cost you less and save you cap room to sign Marleau do stuff with.
Personally knowing how high your drafting id take the picks but since im a Blues fan youd know more about it than me.
He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly he just raged.
Since the trade happened before the season, Boston could have easily matched while still being over the cap and then sent him to Nashville or something to get back below. And besides for what he is getting paid now, it would have cost 4 1st rdrs. Burke wanted to get it done and Kessel wanted to be here.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Looking at next year since 1967
by LeafFan1989 on Mar 21, 2010 11:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No
They could not just drop an RFA offer on him because Nashville had a deal in place and the Bruins could match and Chiarelli said that they would match.
We might have overpaid but no one will know until the picks either pan out or don’t.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
If you get an RFA offer with a NMC and your team matches, do they match the NMC or do they just have to match the salary and term.
I think the deal should be evaluated based on where the picks wind up, not who Boston drafts with them.
by Grabovski's better than you think on Mar 22, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t, because that just opens up the “could have” can of worms “sure the Bruins drafted a bust.but the Leafs might have drafted player who went 6th over all who turned into the best player available”
Who wants to go to the Olive Garden?
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 22, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
So the deal could be a bust if they gave up 2 first overall picks even if neither plays in the NHL?
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
by that token we gave up no one for a star sniper. Works for me.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
by Chuck Diesel on Mar 22, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the real question is whether or not you think Burke's quick rebuild will work.
If he can’t turn things around and make this team competitive in the next few years the deal probably ends up looking bad for the Leafs at best.
If, on the other hand, Burke has the team competing with a few years left on Phil’s contract I think one could say that the deal has worked out pretty well.
Kessel has been doing his part. With the exception of a fairly lengthy dry streak Phil has lived up to expectations, and it seems pretty reasonable to say that he’s going to score a lot of goals for the Leafs. My personal opinion after watching Kessel this season is that he doesn’t have the most complete game and I’m pretty sure that he’s never going to dictate the pace of a game and dominate like some players can, but he’s as pure a goal scorer as I’ve seen. I don’t remember the last Leaf player who scored so often without making any fancy moves or dekes, just beating the goalie straight up with a shot.
However the deal ends up being remembered, right now I’m just enjoying watching Philthy Phil and hoping trusting that Brian Burke builds a team good enough that it’ll be hard to second guess his moves.
by Mirinov's Nose on Mar 22, 2010 7:51 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think
alot of the time people who judge this trade don’t understand where the value of draft picks comes from. Not only are the players you select potential impact players, they also remain under your control at a significant discount compared to other avenues of talent aquisition. Burke signed significant college free agents (Bozak, Hanson) which he was quoted at the time as being “like signing two first round draft picks” and are in the (enviable ?) position of being able to offer ice time and opportunity to any top college free agents this year. Getting too focused on the draft pick method of building a team can be misleading. Burkie aquired young, price controlled players just like he would have gotten in the draft, whether its bozak or seguin is really not the point. BOOM
Dmitri Yushkevich was so tough, he once blocked a Chuck Norris kick with his teeth and finished the shift.
ahhhh burke IS in the enviable position
Dmitri Yushkevich was so tough, he once blocked a Chuck Norris kick with his teeth and finished the shift.
by AkiSchennberg on Mar 22, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Many would, and have, argued that the Leafs were so bereft of prospects and young talent that Burke shouldn’t have chosen one or the other, he should have done both… sign the college kids like Bozak and Hanson AND keep the draft picks. I don’t disagree with that, but at the same time I’m glad to see things starting to turn in our favour for these transactions… Kessel is a young, pure sniper, Bozak has talent and drive as a centre, Hanson shows promise as a 2nd/3rd line forward, and all are still young and should improve.
leaf fan stuck in ottawa, a localized black hole that will suck everything in that area to oblivion.
fair enough but I’m just saying trading two firsts for a stud doesn’t look so bad when you can go out and sign first round type players like burke did
Danny Markov. Crazy before Tucker was crazy.
by AkiSchennberg on Mar 24, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
and like it has been said a million times over, but needs to be reiterated again, this isn’t some 27-30 year old player that they traded for. He is 22, turning 23!!! Who knows what Kessel can do in the future. Hes 3-4 years off being a top 5 draft pick himself.
The only way to get quality of this kind is to give quality, and I for one will still be happy if the Bruins can at the least gain 2-3 players that together can equal Kessel’s talent and make this a good ol’ fashion hockey trade for both sides
by Neale's Harry on Mar 24, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Great great deal for Kessel. So far. This trade realistically won’t be able to be properly assessed for a few years. We will see who Boston and Chiarelli picks, and how they develop. It might wind up as a disaster for either team. But I really really really like our chances of ‘winning’ this trade.
The Purloining of Phil Kessel by Brian Burke. I am optimistic, very optimistic, that is how this trade will be remembered in years to come.
I might be seeing things a little too rosily re Kessel, but I see him being a consistent 40-50 goal scorer for us for years to come. And developing his leadership and defensive skills as time passes. Great great deal. So far. We shall see what we shall see down the road.

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