Stempniak’s the ninja—get it? Actually I just couldn’t decide, with his contract, if he was an asset or anchor. So I left him out. Fitting, I thought.

Part of my point is that in November 2008, Poni, Stajan and Stemps weren’t expiring contracts—they were under-30, established NHL players on good contracts. My bigger point is that while it may be hard to criticize any individual move (other than the Komi signing, which I’ve always doubted because of the $$ and term), looked at as a whole it’s not a pretty picture.

And I don’t buy that Stralman was managed well. He was a valuable asset and we got, effectively, nothing for him. Same with Tlusty (if Paradis makes the NHL at all I highly doubt it will be as anything more than a fungible 3rd/4th line type). Just because a guy doesn’t fit into Burke’s plans doesn’t mean he should be tossed overboard for next to nothing. They’re still assets.

Appreciate people’s hope for the future though. There is certainly a chance some of the picks will work out, right?

I agree with this. When you look at the ‘assets’ from before and the ones we have now, you notice that new ones are younger and have potential to be much more than the ones we had before. Also, when you look at the ‘anchors’ we have now, you see big names and guys with potential, whereas before they were just wastes of salary cap space.

I also think it is kind of wrong that you put Phaneuf in the ‘anchors’ section. In the preamble, you say they are people other GMs would not take for free. If I recall, there were a lot of articles and reports that many GMs would have given more than Burke did for Dion, meaning they would most definitely take him for free. Also, I think that putting Komi as an anchor is your own bias against him.

I’m glad that I read all the comments before responding.
I was going to post essentially the same rebuttal. I don’t think what matters most is that players are outperforming their contracts. While it may be true that some of our players were “outperforming their contracts” (see: White, Ian) We would eventually have to provide them with compensation for said performance. Burke believed that he and others on expiring contracts would eventually become the “anchors” that you believe cost a team success. Having players outperform their contracts is only an asset when they are on entry level deals, or their second nhl contract. Jason Blake was once outperforming his contract, do you think the Islanders were sad to see him go?

Just because Ian White, Stajan and Hagman were considered "assets" because they were outperforming their contracts, does not mean White, Stajan and Hagman were going to lead us to the Stanley Cup, or even playoffs for that matter.

No but every player that outperforms his contract frees up more money for the Leafs to spend on those high end players. That’s why having a guy like Kadri come in two years from now could be a massive help to the team.

Some interesting points.

nhlcheapshot, I don’t think your point is inconsistent with mine. I think high-end skill guys almost always outperform their contracts. I think a guy like Ovechkin is worth $15MM. The Pens are another good example. Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Gonchar are the only real standouts but they’re an awesome team because I think those four are worth much more than they’re paid. Where we differ is that I don’t see one of those franchise-changers in our system. I think Kadri and Kessel are at that next step below. And I don’t think we should expect any of the other prospects or picks to turn into better players than Hagman, Stajan or Poni. The grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

clraitken, I agree that it was a good move not overpaying Poni, Stajan et al. I guess my fundamental issue is that I don’t think this is playing out the way Burke wanted. He has consistently maintained, right through yesterday, that he is not in favour of “blowing a giant hole in the ground to lay the foundation”. He’s in favour of quick turnarounds. If you had told him last November that we’d be in 29th place this year and headed for a similar finish next year he’d have said that was an utter disaster—and I’ll bet my house he wouldn’t have traded two firsts for Phil Kessel.

birky, my proof that Phaneuf was overpaid is that the Flames dumped him for spare parts. A guy making $6.5MM should be a bona fide #1 defenceman. Phaneuf was Calgary’s third best D-man (admittedly the guys ahead of him were pretty good). His numbers this year and last, for a #1 defenceman, were terrible (whether you look at just points or at more advanced stats). The fact that he’s the best guy on the worst defensive team in the NHL doesn’t impress me. Komisarek is overpaid because he’s paid like a #2, but is at best a #3 D-man (he has NO offensive skills, and to play in the top 2 on a good team you need some). He was poor last year and inconsistent this year. There’s no guarantee he turns back into the guy he was pre-Lucic. Nobody in the league would take him right now with that contract unless we took back an anchor in return.

And how exactly has Burke improved the farm system? Almost all the guys we rave about were drafted before he arrived. And his late-round draft strategy seems to focus less on talented flyers (from years past, Champagne, DiDo, Stefanovich, Mikus, Gunnar, Stalberg), more on fighters and pluggers (Devane, Smith, Knodel, even the Paradis acquisition). I can’t give him that much credit for picming Kadri. He had the #7 pick. He’s supposed to get a good player.

I don’t care about this year’s UFA class; I think UFAs are almost always a mistake. But I would like to have cap space to give us flexibility to acquire the top-end talent that inevitably shakes free every year or two because a team is cash or cap strapped.

I can see that we’re in a better position for three-to-five years from now. But frankly that’s not very hard. “Demolish and build up” should not be a challenging task to a talented GM. But that was not the plan. If that was the plan, then last year they should have traded every single one of the assets I listed above, and they would have gotten more for them because many of them would have had a year left on good contracts. They could have finished close to last for three straight years, just as we are now likely going to, and picked up Hall/Seguin and whoever is coming next year. We’d be BETTER positioned than we are now. But that’s not what Burke intended. He expected to be competitive by next year, if not this year, I have no doubt. So by his own standards he has not yet done a good job.

Finally, for the “it’s all bad luck” card, I seem to remember an awful lot of prognosticators picking the Leafs to be near the bottom this year. Sure, they thought the forwards would be the problem but bottom line is no one but Leafs fans expected them to be any good. We have not had unusually bad luck with injuries—all teams have injuries. We have had unexpectedly (to us at least) bad performances. And I think that has to land at the GM’s feet.

On your first point, don’t forget that having Phaneuf around allows them to play Schenn less while he develops. It’s not just a matter of “pure value” per player (which is really impossible to judge anyway). Some players are a better fit with the larger group, some are great players but replacable, and some bring contributions that don’t show in numbers.

Burke doesn’t have patience or he wouldn’t have traded for Kessel. The time horizon for this team is now, realistically, 2012/2013 and if that was the case we shouldn’t have traded for Kessel.

Once again, it’s the half-assed, can’t-make-up-our-minds MLSE way. If you’re going to blow it up, BLOW IT UP! Why were guys like Hagman, Stajan and Poni still on the team at the beginning of the year? Don’t simultaneously try to contend and blow up.

1. You mentioned that both Phaneuf and Komisarek are overpaid. Why? Do you have any proof to back that up?

Find any statistical measure that demonstrates Phaneuf is one of the top 10 D in the league. He’s paid to be, but he’s not in the top 10 in offense, he’s not in the top 10 in defensive measures. I think anyone looking at the year over year decline in his game could put forth a pretty compelling argument that he’s overpaid.

2. The cap situation. Why does it matter that we only have 6.5 million in cap space? There is little to nothing of importance in the free agent market this summer, especially if you forget bout Marleau and Kovalchuk, two guys Burke will not be going after. The Leafs will probably add 2 or 3 guys to play in the top 9, and give the young kids every chance to make the club.

I think this is one of the few wedge issues for Leaf fans.

I don’t want any of the kids making the team. I think the Leafs should model themselves after clubs that have a long history of developing their young talent where the kids spend a few seasons in the AHL logging big minutes in all game situations.

I’d like to see the Leafs spend what little cap space they have on short-term deals for older vets so the kids maximize development time.

3. The Leafs have a deep prospect group now (except in goal). Most of those guys won’t sniff the NHL. But Burke has faith in numbers.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding you, but aren’t those two sentences contradictory?

Every analysis I’ve read also puts the Leafs in the mid to lower range in terms of prospects. I don’t think the Leaf pool is deep nor rich.

As long as they won’t divide the room and we have cap space we need to overpay those guys on one year deals for the pump and dump.

The Islanders have stockpiled draft picks by signing guys to short term deals, playing the shit out of them and trading them at the deadline before tanking like they meant it.

I’d take Plekanec at the right price (IE around 3) but the 2011 UFAs look pretty good so save the money

but minus Pogge, Tlusty, Strahlman… am i forgetting anyone?

Prospects that were here prior to Burke:

Jiri Tlusty
Carl Gunarsson
Viktor Stalberg
Dale Mitchell
Mikhail Stefanovich
Joel Champagne
James Reimer
Jaraj Mikus
Chris Didimenico

I included all those guys in my list of “assets” except Paradis, who to me has negligible value (40 pts in 61 games in the Q. The Q!!!)

The ledger still looks pretty bad.

The difference is most of our prospects will be in the NHL next year.

And then he went about gathering more and more defencemen, 3 of the more expensive ones (Beau, Komi and Phaneuf) being similar, i.e. hard blue line shots, power hitters, but none being good at shutting down.

I think that Burke took that tact because the easiest way to improve is to reduce goals against. Unfortunately, the goaltending wasn’t there to cooperate. Komisarek was actually getting good at shutting down the opposition before he was injured.

As for forwards, I think Burke’s focus is shifting there. He’s added Bozak, Stalberg, Caputi, Hanson, and Kessel. Next year he’ll likely add Kadri. The Leafs also have quite a few guys that could be up next year or the year after to look at. I don’t know that he’ll go after anyone this off season but he’s got the defence sorted.

Finger is all but gone next year via a late late late round pick or the waiver wire and Kabby is 90% traded unless someone makes a good offer on say Beauch and they cant get a good price for Kabby

It looks bad now, but you have to look at the trade when he made it. Made sense to a lot of people then.

Hindsight makes things very easy.

Thanks for joining.