Late round draft picks

by stormshadow on Mar 4, 2010 3:39 PM EST

With all the discussion of the Leafs acquiring late rounds and their value I thought that I would go back and have a look at who has been drafted in the later rounds. I started at the 4th round and with the year 2000 because I'm lazy, also I'm not going to bother to list every player of some significance (no offense to Travis Moen).

Name (round selected)

2000

Lubomir Visnovsky (4th)
John-Michael Liles (5th)
Henrik Lundqvist (7th)

2001

Christian Ehrhoff (4th)
Kyle Wellwood (5th)
Kevin Bieksa (5th)
Dennis Seidenberg (6th)
Marek Zidlicky (6th)
Ryane Clowe (6th)
Brooks Laich (6th)
Cristobal Huet (7th)
David Moss (7th) but was last years 39 pts a fluke?
Marek Svatos (7th)

2002

Ian White (6th)
Maxime Talbot (8th)
Dennis Wideman (8th)
Jonathan Ericsson (9th)
Staffan Kronwall (9th)

2003

Kyle Quincey (4th)
Lee Stempniak (5th)
John Mitchell (5th)
Tobias Enstrom (8th)
Jaroslav Halak (9th)

2004
Tyler Kennedy (4th)
Kris Versteeg (5th)
Mikhail Grabovski (5th)
Brandon Yip (8th) 11 goals, 18 pts in 26 games could turn out pretty good
Pekka Rinne (8th)

2005
Sergei Kostitsyn (7th)
Anton Stralman (7th)

2006
James Reimer (4th)
Viktor Stalberg (6th)

2007
Luca Caputi (4th)
Keith Aulie (4th)
Carl Gunnarsson (7th)

ok, so I went back and did 1999 because what list of late round draft picks shouldn't include Zetterberg.

Ryan Malone (4th)
Ryan Miller (5th)
Martin Erat (7th)
Henrik Zetterberg (7th)
Radim Vrbata (7th)
Garnet Exelby (8th)
Jeff Finger (8th)

So, maybe I included some players I might not have originally planned on including but I could have fluffed up the list even more if I wanted. Some were included because they are/were Leafs or that I'd had them in a Fantasy Pool at some time. I also might have missed some players because my screen started to blur after a while or was that my eyes?

Obviously, not as many players are listed from recent drafts because perhaps they are still developing or haven't been given the opportunity to showcase their skills at the NHL level, or perhaps they play in markets they just don't get enough attention so I haven't heard of them.

Some thoughts I'd like to hear everyone's opinion on

Are drafts as deep talent wise as they used to be? Or is having a 7th rounder develop into an Henrik Lundqvist or Henrik Zetterberg considered an anomaly? Consider that for every Henrik Lundqvist there's probably a dozen Mike Brodeur's, Brian Elliot's, or Mike Smith's that have been drafted that late, but probably a hundred Curtis McElhinney's and Paul Flache's.

How would you rate the Leafs draft history?

Would you say the bigger problem is with our scouting or with our development?

Thanks for reading.

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Comments

From memory

First rounders have a 33% chance to make the NHL.
Seconds have 15%
The rest have 5-6%.

He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly he just raged.

by Icion on Mar 4, 2010 3:57 PM EST reply actions

Wait disregard

Was thinking of differant numbers, just looked it up and according to this.http://proicehockey.about.com/od/prospects/f/draft_success.htm

60% of firsts
25% of seconds
10% afterwards.

He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly he just raged.

by Icion on Mar 4, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

Your fist comment is more in line with what I’ve read. Mirtle noted yesterday that later round prospects have about a 1 in 20 chance of making the bigs.

By the way stormshadow, this is a good first post.

by JP Nikota on Mar 4, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

Have to remember the 10% involves the majority of players picked.

60% of firsts = 18 players out of 30
25% of seconds = 7-8 players out of 30
10% of everyone else = about 15 out of 150

"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Mar 4, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions

I think with late draft pick

So 6th round or beyond, you are lucky to get a bottom 6/spare part forward or 3rd pairing/spare part d-man. And once you get to the 8th round you’re lucky to get a serviceable AHL player.

We require, as a team, proper levels of pugnacity, testosterone, truculence and belligerence.
DION F*****G PHANEUF

by Belligerent Burkie on Mar 4, 2010 4:31 PM EST reply actions

I think some guys are projects and require a lot of work – but you can still get good guys in the late rounds. The key here is development… that is where we need to focus our energies to try and capitalize on those late round picks.

Obviously there is a certain point in any player’s career where you have to know when to cut your losses. Still, better to spend a little too much time trying to develop your prospect than giving up early… it ends up coming down to how they are doing by the time you lose their RFA rights/waiver eligibility

"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Mar 4, 2010 4:50 PM EST reply actions

Id like to know which teams do the best with late picks. Is the draft really a crap shoot, or is it a matter of drafting guys who you can develop to their peak potential (ie smart scouting department combined with an effective grooming system)?

by samspade on Mar 4, 2010 8:37 PM EST reply actions