The Toronto Maple Leafs' 2010 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

There is 100% chance that the coverage of the draft lottery is going to make me wish i could drown Peter Chiarelli in a vat of lottery balls.

Any day you have to stand in front of other bloggers and talk about not qualifying for the playoffs should be a kick right in the groin to everyone in the Barilkosphere and it's a kick to me. I take it personally and unprofessionally. I'll keep a tally of every SOB dancing on our graves and when the Leafs return to prominence I'll have a thing or two to say to all of them. For now, we move on to the next kick in the groin: the 2010 NHL Draft Lottery. We can parse the Phil Kessel trade six ways to Sunday. The view has shifted as the season has moved along to its ultimate conclusion. Tonight at 8pm EST there will be another event that will be used as a bludgeon against Maple Leaf fans: The 2010 NHL Draft Lottery.

I had this conversation with a few friends this weekend - one of the guys one our alumni team is a Bruins fan - but this deal can get analysed at a few moments in time and each time it could yield a different result. I might do a longer post this summer but I think that you could argue either that it was a good deal or it was a bad deal. As the draft balls pop up, it'll be easy to say that it's a bad deal. However, ultimately, this deal cannot be judged fully until it's major players have had a chance to develop into NHLers or Alexander Daigles/Patrick Stefans (DEAR GOD PLEASE!!). But this post isn't about those possibilities. It's about what we need to happen tonight.

First up, the complete 2010 NHL Draft Lottery odds courtesy of My NHL Draft:

Odds of Winning Lottery Team
25.0% Edmonton Oilers
18.8% Toronto Maple Leafs
14.2% Florida Panthers
10.7% Columbus Blue Jackets
8.1% New York Islanders
6.2% Tampa Bay Lightning
4.7% Carolina Hurricanes
3.6% Atlanta Thrashers
2.7% Minnesota Wild
2.1% New York Rangers
1.5% Dallas Stars
1.1% Anaheim Ducks
0.8% Calgary Flames
0.5% St. Louis Blues

Some basic facts: Teams can only move up four spots if they win the lottery. That means that only the five worst teams can win the first overall pick. The most that any team can move down is one spot. Here is an article that explains the process of picking the winner in more detail as, in keeping with Vancouver Sun policy, they make numbers sound scary. If you really want to torture yourself in the build up then you can play the Edmonton Oilers' lottery simulator. So without further ado, here are the only numbers you need to know:

Odds that the Toronto Maple Leafs draft first overall - 18.8%

This is straightforward and it represents the odds that there will be reports of a sniper on top of the Air Canada Centre.

Odds that the Toronto Maple Leafs draft second overall - 42.0%

These are the combined odds that the Edmonton Oilers, Carolina Hurricanes, Atlanta Thrashers, Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, Dallas Stars, Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, and St. Louis Blues win the draft. If any of these teams win then they are unable to dislodge the Maple Leafs from the second spot.

Odds that the Toronto Maple Leafs draft third overall - 39.2% 

Only the Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, and Tampa Bay Lightning can bump the Leafs from the second spot by jumping four spots.

So what can we glean from this? There is a 18.8% chance that we will read endless articles about how the Leafs traded away the top pick in the 2010 draft. There is a 60.8% chance that the media's lede will be that the Leafs have given up at least one no doubt Hall of Famer in Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin. There is a 39.2% chance that the draft's quality is expanded from two no doubters to three. And there is a 100% chance that we will never hear the end of this.

And just think, we have to go through all of this next year. Sigh. So for now let's focus on getting any kind of good juju we can or on figuring out how to avoid this topic for the next 20 years. Ideas?

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