The Decline of Tomas Kaberle

I think the heady days of Jeff Carter are long gone. If Burke nets a decent prospect and a mid round pick for Kaberle now, we should be pleased. Maybe in some sort of package deal with another warm body on the roster, or in some plot to alleviate a team’s cap issues, Burke might net a more generous return.

I don’t know that a stretch of play from the trade deadline to the end of the season – which is what, 6 weeks? – will have that much of an impact on what the Leafs can get for Kaberle. I think other GMs will be more likely to blame the rest of the team, as well as the incredible changes made, for Kaberle’s lack of production, rather than Kaberle himself.

Players don’t forget how to play. They have these things called slumps which can be a result from many external or internal forces. He will still be considered a premiere player and the way I see it, if Burke and company got Phaneuf for what he did and in the same day miraculously dumped both blake and Toskala… I can’t say what will happen with Thomas but I’m sure and hope Burke will hit another home run.

I think Kaberle will still get us a first round pick from a desperate team but I wouldn’t be surprised if he only nets a second round pick now that he’s regressed.

My concern? He doesn’t have chemistry with anyone. He’s 32 years old. He can’t play defensively. He’s not playing offense either. Would he bounce back in a different environment? Maybe in a low pressure place like Anaheim, Los Angeles, or Winnipeg -whoops, I meant Phoenix - where he wouldn’t be recognized on the street.

I think landing Phaneuf was the beginning of the end for Kaberle. Schenn, Komisarek, Beauchemin and Phaneuf aren’t going anwhere and that’s about $15M in cap right there.

The Leafs cap situation, Kaberle’s contract status and his age make him more expendable. The fact that he’s one, if not the only, asset that Burke has left, it’s all but a certainty that Kaberle will be traded this summer.

As for a few other bits…

Kaberle was likely shaken by the deal.

This strikes me as an odd conclusion to draw when you consider how much turnover this team has had in the past 24 months (Kubina, Tucker, Raycroft, McCabe, Sundin, Steen, Cola, Stralman, Devereaux, Kilger, Belak, Moore, Tlusty, Bell, May, Williams, Antropov – and that’s just off the top of my head).

Why would a five player swap cause a sudden drop-off in play?

Blake was the Leafs top scorer from 2008-09 and under contract to the Leafs for another 2 years. Vesa Toskala was the team’s nominal starting goalie.

If Kaberle didn’t think the Leafs would jettison these two at the first opportunity, he’s got much bigger problems than his poor second-half play.

Despite the addition of Phaneuf, who to all appearances would give Kaberle his best partner on the point of the Leafs power play since the departure of Bryan McCabe,

Pavel Kubina, Kaberle’s former PP partner, scored 14 goals to Phaneuf’s 10 in 2008-09. In terms of PP, Kubina more than doubled Phaneuf’s totals, putting up 9 goals to Phaneuf’s 4. Phaneuf’s accuracy makes me long for Jason Blake’s shot – at least Blake could hit the net.

The stunning and sudden decline in Kaberle’s totals suggest to me it’s a matter of coaching, not talent.

Kaberley is no longer the primary puck mover as the team has, to my eyes, moved away from the options of a stretch pass or carrying the puck out of the defensive zone. The d-men are now moving short passes to the forwards who can carry the puck through the neutral zone with speed.

The powerplay’s emphasis on Kessel at the half-boards has not been productive, yet the team continues to use this approach.

Has Kaberle’s value diminished? Absolutely, especially if the days of a 1st and Jeff Carter are the yardstick.

Will Kaberle continue to struggle? I doubt it.

I’d wager that Kaberle does what most successful players do when the are no longer coached by Ron Wilson: bounce back and put up great numbers.

For a small taste of Kaberle without Ron Wilson, just consider his 1 goal and 2 assists for 3 points in 5 games in the Olympics. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but it tells me that Kaberle still has the offensive skills and that he can thrive under a different system.

Tomas Kaberle’s trade value pre-deadline was probably as high as it will ever get during his time in Toronto. That reality is as unfortunate as it is worrying.

I understand what you’re getting at when you say that Kabby’s value might have been higher pre-deadline, IF he didn’t have that handy no-trade clause. But in a more real and concrete sense, by only giving permission to Burke to speak to two teams on the day of the deadline, his value was lower. Proof? If his value was greater at the deadline to one of those two teams, he’d already have been traded. In the summer, we can peddle him to the highest bidder.

He needs to go. As much as I’ve liked kaberle over the years he just doesn’t seem to fit into this new team. I want to this team develop into a contender over the next few years and I just don’t see kabs there a year or two from now so nows the time.

One of two things MUST happen this summer; either Kabby gets re-signed (not a chance) or he gets moved. Doesn’t matter what the return is at this point because once that trade window closes Kabby will hold all the cards again.(potentially no return)

There just aren’t enough minutes (and cap space)for Dion, Beauch, Komi, Schenn, Gunner AND Kabby!

The Stars would take Kaberle, depending on what we need to give up. We desperately need a number-one defenseman.

If Kabby’s value (which I think is still very high) has tanked then we shouldn’t trade him. If his value is a 2nd rounder then keep him. 32 isn’t very old and he hasn’t regressed as much as people think. Carter and a first was never his true value either that is overinflated for him at the best of times. A 1st rounder and a couple of prospects is much closer to his worth. I think we should be able to get what we gave up for Leetch. Other than him we have no one who can skate into the offensive zone and set up a play. Kessel sometimes does but he tends to hold the puck too long and causes turnovers. Everyone else does a dump and chase. I’m not going to try and defend his defensive shortcomings but in my opinion your first line isn’t there to play D it’s there to play D by playing O and Kaberle does just fine with that. Keep him on the PP and on the first line and don’t put him out for Defensive zone faceoffs. If you can’t get a good return for him then it’s positive expected value to keep him

Many Leaf fans think that if we deal away Kaberle the team is somehow screwed from an offensive perspective.

The Leafs have had a better winning percentage without Kaberle contributing offensively than they have had when he was the best offensive player on the team. Why then would we worry so much about his offensive production.

The question is what would you rather have:

Kaberle

or

a 1st round pick

or

a top-end prospect (maybe not Hodgeson, but a Grabner, Neal, or Benn)

or

a top-six forward (not sure this has ever been a possibility, as Jared pointed out that the Jeff Carter we might have had was a prospect at the time not a top-six lock—Kaberle was part of a potential Kessel deal though.)

?

This is the question you need to ask yourself.

could very well force a team to give up a first rounder for Kabby

I think we should all forget about first or second round picks coming back in return for Kaberle. I think we’re looking more at teams moving big contracts around to get better balance under the cap. A team like Philadelphia would love to move a forward like Gagne or Briere (Danny is pretty close to unmovable) for a goalie. Boston would love to move a goalie for a puck moving defenseman or a goal scoring winger. New Jersey would love to get a puck moving defenseman as well, but they’d only offer prospects. I think we’ll see teams try to move assets around, not just draft picks.

Right before the trade deadline, a Canucks’ fan suggested that they could trade Grabner for Kaberle straight up. I said he was dreaming in technicolour. Would folks around here really be happy with a return like that? I sure wouldn’t.

Kaberle is in the longest “drought” of his NHL career right now.

This is his second worst month+ long stretch of hockey from a points perspective in his 11 year career. That’s pretty damn horrible considering the last time he suffered like this was during an 8 game month of December in 2003.

He didn’t score any points in the last 7 games of the year last year either, but he was coming off an injury so that’s not quite the same.

This current stretch of 3 points in 19 games is remarkable for that reason alone.

I’d love to see a Tomas Kaberle post that lists all 29 Teams, what picks/prospects/players they have that we would be looking at for a trade (realistically and unrealistically alike).

i.e.

Vancouver Canucks (20th pick overall)

Picks:
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th (example, I don’t know which picks they still have)
Prospects:
Schneider (G), Hodgson (C ), Schroeder, etc. etc.
Players:
M. Raymond, Grabner, Edler, Bernier

I’d do it myself, but I just don’t know the picks/prospects well enough. The speculation is going to happen anyway, it’d be interesting to have all the info & possibilities in one place. Just an idea.

Wysh linked to this over at Puck Daddy. Nice job Steve.

His best days are behind him. 4.25 is too steep given his numbers. It will be interesting to see how badly Burke wants to deal him. However, I know a Swedish center you can have if you want to trade the Caps straight up.

Oh Tomas…

Could be his final game tonight.

I will always love him.