Making A Case For Mickey Grabs

by JaredFromLondon on May 19, 2010 8:32 PM EDT

Round yon'd interwebs there is much dissent among Leaf fans. Not so much here at PPP, but other Leaf and/or hockey centric webbed scopes. The case of our long haired pineapple stabber seems to run hot and cold. Some love him, many hate him. I seem to find many call him over paid with a boat anchor of a contract. This got me wondering. Just what does 2.9 Million a year get you?

Rules of engagement. Forwards who, last season made within 500k of Grabbo who arn't on ELCs.

This is strictly a PPG comparison, as evaluating all the "intangibles" would take about a zillion pages.

Let's get it on:

Mikhail Grabovski – 2.9$ 59G 35Pts 0.59PPG

Todd White – 2.375$ 65G 26Pts .40PPG

Marco Sturm - 3.5$ 76G 37PTS .48PPG

Blake Wheeler - 2.85$ 82G 38PTS .46PPG

Ales Kotalik - 3$ 71G 27PTS .38PPG

Nik Hagman - 3$ 82G 44PTS .53PPG

Erik Cole - 2.9$ 40G 16PTS .40PPG

Sergei Samsonov - 2.53$ 72G 29PTS .40PPG

Kris Versteeg - 3$ 79G 44PTS .55PPG

Dustin Byfuglien - 3$ 82G 34PTS .41PPG

Dave Bolland - 3.375$ 39G 16PTS .41PPG

Milan Hejduk – 3$ 56 G44PTS .78PPG

Samuel Pahlsson - 2.65$ 79G 16PTS .20PPG

Chris Clark - 2.63$ 74G 20PTS .27PPG

Valtteri Filppula – 3$ 55G 35PTS .63PPG

Dan Cleary - 2.8$ 64G 34PTS .53PPG

Patrick O’Sullivan - 2.9$ 73G 34PTS .46PPG

Rostislav Olesz - 3.1$ 78 29PTS .37PPG

Stephen Weiss - 3.1 80G 60PTS .75PPG

Justin Williams - 3.175$ 49G 29PTS .59PPG

Dustin Brown - 3.1$ 82G 56PTS .59PPG

Mikko Koivu - 3.25$ 80G71PTS .88PPG

Andrei Kostitsyn - 3.25$ 59G 33PTS .56PPG

Zach Parise - 3.1$ 81G 82PTS 1.01PPG

Dainius Zubrus - 3.4$ 51G 27PTS .53PPG

Jamie Langenbrunner - 2.8$ 81G 61PTS .75PPG

Jay Pandolfo - 2.5$ 51G 9 PTS .17PPG

Jonathan Cheechoo - 3$.0 61G 14PTS .23PPG

Radim Vrbata – 3$ 62G 43PTS .69PPG

David Backes – 2.5$ 79G 48PTS .61PPG

Mikael Samuelsson – 2.5$ 74G 53PTS .72PPG

Mike Knuble - 2.8$ 69 G53PTS .77PPG

So at the one end you have players that are ridiculously good value in Zach Parise and Mikko Koivu and then you have the Jay Pandolfos and the Chris Clarks.

Only 10 out of the 32 forwards within 500k of Grabbo had a higher PPG rate than him, two had identical PPGs (WIlliams and Brown) and 20 were lower.

Discuss.

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Comments

Meh.

We have no real reason to get rid of him unless some team steps in and offers us a ridiculous deal.

As you point out, he’s decent back for the buck. He’ll help shelter Kadri, who can hopefully left to develop in the O or A. If they bring up Kadri, Grabbo can probably play wing and still be effective. He probably still has a little growing room too, so hopefully that $2.9M begins to look like an even better deal. Why not keep him?

"Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?"

by JP Nikota on May 19, 2010 8:56 PM EDT reply actions

*

bang for the buck.

"Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?"

by JP Nikota on May 19, 2010 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I just realized how the phase bang for the buck promotes prostitution.

Does that revelation have anything to do with this topic? You decide.

by BlindSight on May 19, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

We’re all whores in some way.

by Jo4nny on May 24, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

i have an idea…
include grabovski in a deal to washington to get RFA Eric Fehr.

by birky on May 20, 2010 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

No Wheat Kings! Thank you very much.

Thou shalt not move Grabbo. List above shows he’s right around his market value. Can’t believe what steals Weiss and Parise are, and what albatrosses Kotalik and Cheechoo are!

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by Sergei Puckizin on May 20, 2010 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Parise’s a “bargain” because he’s still on his first deal since his ELC expired.

He also makes $5M in real dollars this next season, which, I know everybody thinks isn’t a big deal and it’s the ca hit that matters, but to the ones signing the checks, $5M is a huge leap from $3M…

I have nothing interesting to say.

by blurr1974 on May 20, 2010 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Parise is a bargain because he started really producing incredible numbers (for his cap hit) BEFORE his contract year.

Most bums wait until their payday year to have breakout seasons. But in 08-09 he was making 2.5M and had a 45 goal, 94 point campaign (good for 5th in the NHL in points, and I believe 2nd or 3rd in goalscoring) while he still had 2 more years on his 3.15M cap hit.

Sorry I always defend Parise (he made my top 5 NHL man-crushes)

Just sayin, the man deserves a big raise next year.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 5:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I love Parise. He was one of the many reasons I was telling folks the US team at the Olympics was going to be dangerous.

All I’m saying is, with the deal he’s currently on, the leverage he had to negotiate it wasn’t that big, so it favors the team more than the player. Were Parise to hit open market, he’d crack $6M per with ease…

I have nothing interesting to say.

by blurr1974 on May 20, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s incredible that Lamoriello got him signed to that deal after his ELC. That’s the elusive second contract that players are skipping now.

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

There is no way Washington even considers that. They love Fehr.

by The '67 Sound on May 20, 2010 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions

if they re-sign fleischmann, gordon, schultz, and morrison, they will have a hard time signing fehr.

by birky on May 20, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

they will sign Fehr over everyone of the mentioned players

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Bingo. Except maybe Schultz, they need to lock up good defensemen, as that seems to be their weak spot.

But Fehr is right up there in importance for them as much as Kulemin is for us.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Kulemin is more important to us than Fehr is to Washington, because Kuli’s either our 2nd or 3rd best forward (depending on how you feel about Bozak). Fehr’s a 3rd liner at best in that Caps lineup.

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by clrkaitken on May 20, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Schultz was brutal in the playoffs from what I remember
they probably sign Volchenkov to fill that hole anyways

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

He was +50 during the regular season. I somehow doubt they throw the baby out with the bathwater here.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

im not saying they rid themselves of him, but i just mean that i doubt he will get a massive pay day

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

DON’T RUIN THIS FOR ME

by birky on May 20, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Yup. Caps fans HATE Flash in particular and I can’t imagine management feels differently. If you want to target someone who is available, he’s it.

But I’d take a pass.

by The '67 Sound on May 20, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Because there are better players available

Burke’s goal should be to improve the team, not stand pat with Grabbo because he’s alright value for his cap hit. Justify it anyway you like, there are better players out there and they can probably be had.

For instance…

If you want to improve at centre but still spend the same amount of money you could try to see if Florida is interested in moving Stephen Weiss. With a new GM in town and an owner that’s stated the team is being rebuilt (I think), it seems like they’d be interested in moving a 27 year old centre in his prime for a decent return. Plus his cap hit is two hundred grand more then Grabs per year, but he is generally superior in most statistical categories I’ve dredged through.

If you want a serious upgrade in production and size you sign Mikko Koivu this summer to something like Jeff Carter’s contract. This is what I’d endorse, but it does leave the team in the position of paying a guy pretty major bucks to be a first/second line tweener. However, he would provide some shelter for younger guys like Bozak and Kadri to develop and he would be a bona fide top six forward, something this team lacks.

Lastly, if you felt like taking a bit of a gamble you go after Jordan Staal all guns blazing. Pittsburgh is going to have to sign a lot of players this off season, and they might need to make some room. Staal is only 20, but he’s played nearly twice the NHL games Grabbo has. In that time he’s missed exactly one regular season game. He has size, skill and a Stanley Cup ring. Yes, there is the possibility he can’t score more then he does – but its the kind of bold move a GM with a 29th place team sometimes has to make. And before anyone says we can’t get him, let’s all remember who our GM is.

Basically, I’ve been doing a lot of research on Grabs and I’ll fully admit that he earns his contract, and he does look favorable to many players in his cap-hit area. I’d not call him an overachiever, but he’s a solid achiever. But in the end it’s about the team getting better, and I just don’t think it’s going to be able to do that with Grabbo in the fold.

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by Pamplemousse on May 20, 2010 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Stephen Weiss

Mikko Koivu

Jordan Staal

I think you are very well putting too much trade value on Grabbo. I’d say he’s earning his contract, but these names are way way out of the realm of possibility. Some are straight up HFboard-esque.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, and Koivu isn’t a UFA as you seem to think. He’s under contract and will probably run $6MM as a UFA. No thanks.

I’d love to get Staal or Weiss but it’s not a question of whether they’re better than Grabs—they are—it’s a question of whether they’re better than Grabs plus whatever else you’d have to give up.

Grabs is one of the few players on this team who, based on Jared’s list, is pretty clearly outperforming his contract. Not by much, but still. Shift him to wing if need be, and he’s probably gone when he’s ready for a UFA deal, but only deal him if you can improve both your skill and your cap-friendliness.

by The '67 Sound on May 20, 2010 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions

My bad

Misread something on Koivu – but I still think that you can get him to $5 million a year capwise – it’s term that’s the issue.

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by Pamplemousse on May 20, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Lookit...

Let’s be real. This is a team that has been out of the playoff’s since the lockout. Last year was their worst year of that lot by a significant margin.

To me that means there are very few players on this team are untouchable, and from where I’m sitting it almost doesn’t matter what players you give up from this group if you can acquire a talent like Stephen Weiss, Mikko Koivu or Jordan Staal.

Acquiring any of these guys is going to be an immediate improvement of your forward corps, no matter who gets moved.

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by Pamplemousse on May 20, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not saying anyone would take Grabbo in exchange for these guys. I’m saying see what it takes to get these guys AND move Grabbo for what you can get for him.

Look, did anyone think by seasons end Guigere, Phaneuf and Kessel would be Leafs? Or that we’d have Caputi and Aulie in the system? No, they didn’t. So stop calling any trade for a valuable player to be “HFboard-esque” – in light of what our GM can actually do it looks pretty silly.

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by Pamplemousse on May 20, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions

So stop calling any trade for a valuable player to be "HFboard-esque" – in light of what our GM can actually do it looks pretty silly.

Didn’t mean to strike a nerve. It just seemed like the topic changed pretty quickly from “Grabbo is worth his cap hit” to “let’s trade for Mikko Koivu & Jordan Staal”.

I get that’s not what you’re saying, and that we should be building around these valuable players rather than Grabbo. I just don’t think they’re in the realm of possibility.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Stephen Weiss is incredible. If Florida parts with him we’ll know that Tallon is even worse that we imagined.

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Go here.

Then go here.

Eerily similar, no?

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by clrkaitken on May 20, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

THE TICKETS ARE NOW DIAMONDS

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

funny enough i was thinking the same thing

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

very

what do they look like from a Behind the Net perspective…?

I have nothing interesting to say.

by blurr1974 on May 20, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

bah, can’t find it but Weiss was in a post there (I think) and he was on his third straight year of playing the toughest minutes and outscoring them.

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Anti-Stajan bias aside, that’s kind of what I thought.

I have nothing interesting to say.

by blurr1974 on May 20, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Stajan was on the list I think for 2 of three years but Weiss was better.

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

I like Grabbo. I think if he’s fully healthy for the whole season he’ll put up 60 points and is capable of getting up to 70 if things break right. That’s pretty good for a $2.9M cap hit. I definitely want to keep him with the obvious exception of if some other team’s GM shows Sutter-like decision making and makes a ridiculous offer for him.

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by stucky on May 20, 2010 1:01 AM EDT reply actions

If Grabbo hits 70 points next year, I will eat my hat. I’d even consider eating my hat if he scored 70 points the year after, too.

"Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?"

by JP Nikota on May 20, 2010 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions

No chance he hits 70

Not with his QUALTEAM, not with his TOI, not with the amount of shots he takes (too few) and not with the amount of time he spends on the PP (not much).

Grabbo tops out at 60 points max if he plays the best hockey of his life next year. To be fair, if he did that I’d call his contract a bargain and advocate to keep him :)

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by Pamplemousse on May 20, 2010 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ll settle for 50 points, which is extremely doable.

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by clrkaitken on May 20, 2010 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions

60 is a ‘holy crap look at this guy’ level for sure.

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

he wont get 60 on the second line playing with Stalberg and Hanson thats for sure

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

He could jump to 60 points just as a matter of sheer luck. He’s already produced at virtually a 50 point pace.

But I would not expect his intrinsic skill level to jump up to 60, let along 70 points.

by The '67 Sound on May 20, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Bingo. 60 points is pretty big. That’s 20G, 40A’s, or 25G, 35A (i dont see grabbo as more than a 20-25G guy)

Those A’s depend a lot on who his linemates end up being.

60 points would be a breakout season imho.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

the only way I see Grabbo cresting 60 is if Burke brings in a SIGNIFICANT talent and Wilson decides to split up said talent and Kessel to keep a one two scoring punch
(implausible scenario) IE Kaberle for Semin, both Semin and Kessel are RW’s one gets dropped to the 2nd line

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

(implausible scenario)

I like this disclaimer before suggesting rediculous trades. I may ~~use~~ steal this myself.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

He only shot 7% last year. Could easily jump to 14% with lots of luck.

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

not having a wrist injury for 30 games will help too

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

i think 7% is closer to his true ability than the percentage he shot the year before

by birky on May 20, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

No NHL forward should shoot 7% as a matter of skill. That means every goalie is Ryan Miller. That’s bad luck.

A 2nd line F like Grabs should be shooting around 10-11%.

by The '67 Sound on May 20, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

There’s a good post on BehindTheNetHockey about that today..

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ll admit 70 is a big stretch, but I still think a 60 point season from Grabbo is extremely doable and not as much of a leap as some people think. And I admit I’m basing that more on my gut feeling than any statistical analysis.

What can I say? I think he’ll do it. I have faith in our stabber of pineapples.

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by stucky on May 20, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions

As I see it, Grabbo brings some intangibles to the leafs that increase his value.

a) He hates the habs, and he gets under their skin.

b) He plays with an edge, and he’s fun to watch. He’s not afraid to make a play off his own stick, and you can tell he always wants to.

c) He’s still a young raw talent, and probably hasn’t hit his peak yet.

Are there better players out there in the $3 million price range? Yes. But before we worry about a player playing mildly above his pay grade, why don’t we worry about players that aren’t pulling their weight?

by A Lindros Jaw on May 20, 2010 5:09 AM EDT reply actions

Love the username, love your favorite golfers.

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by Chemmy on May 20, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

40-50 point player. Until he breaks out and proves me wrong, that’s all I expect for the next 2 seasons.

Stop putting unrealistic expectations on the guy, he gets revolving door linemates, most of whom are rookies or sophmores.

Poor Grabbo. His biggest fault is that the expectations of him are too high.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 6:03 AM EDT reply actions

thats pretty much what I was trying to point out. People seem to expect so much out of a 2.9 milion dollar 2nd line center on a generally terrible team.
He is pretty much better than fair value for what he costs

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions

100 pts or bust.

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by Chemmy on May 20, 2010 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

One thing I noticed is that all the players ahead of Grabbo in PPG (i.e. Parise, Langenbrunner, Hejduk, Koivu and Samuelsson) are all players who see alot of time with the best players on the team, and in some cases the team’s best player. That and your spelling is really bad Jared, half the guys names were spelled incorrect

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by Kevin Sellathamby on May 20, 2010 10:58 AM EDT reply actions

I SPELL BAD? HOLY SHIT! I DID NOT KNOW THAT

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Jared doesn’t live by your tyrannical rules of grammar and spelling.

I've always wanted to be a PPP Princess. You see kids, you can be anything you want to be; so long as Jay Leno doesn't also want to be that.

by SkinnyFish on May 20, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I notice you fixed “dissent” from “decent” as well.

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by nhlcheapshot on May 20, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I did no such thing, that was probably “the man” trying to spoil my message

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

That was indeed the man although I clearly didn’t look at the players’ names.

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Although Radium Verbata sounds like an awesome Bond villain

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by PPP on May 20, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

the best is Nicholas Hagman. Makes him sound like an actor

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by Matt_Roberts on May 20, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

More like a superweapon

by Kevin Sellathamby on May 20, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

the NHL would be much more interesting if I got to name the players

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by JaredFromLondon on May 20, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

hey!

i demand that those spelling mistake be put back, it adds character to the post.

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on May 20, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I could see him at 60 points if he took Bozak’s spot.

by The '67 Sound on May 20, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

His hair’s worth $2m of that contract alone.

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by article1 on May 20, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions

Jared

You’re my boy and all, but, I am sticking with my I don’t like Grabbo stance.

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Equal oppurtunity asshole

by leafer1984 on May 20, 2010 4:23 PM EDT reply actions

Jared

YOU HAVE SPOKEN THE TRUTH!

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by Almo89 on May 21, 2010 6:38 PM EDT reply actions

There’s nothing really wrong with Grabovski, and I’m not opposed to keeping him, I just don’t think there is a role that suits him on the Leafs. Also when he was injured, I forgot he existed.

by YakovMironov on May 21, 2010 7:47 PM EDT reply actions

his roll is second line center until someone better comes in

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by JaredFromLondon on May 21, 2010 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions

no argument here. should have said long term role. I would love to see Grabbo get a shot playing wing, I think he’s got the potential to be as good as Hemsky as a playmaking winger. My biggest knock on him are his neutral zone turnovers, I don’t think it would be as big an issue on the wing.

by YakovMironov on May 21, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions