The Leafs Most Intriguing Defensive Prospect... Aside from the Obvious
by OverTheHill on May 29, 2010 11:11 AM EDT
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PrintChemmy edit: our FTB writers appear to be enjoying the weather and this is the newest Fanpost. Sometimes it pays to be in the right place at the right time. Check out one of our newest users' thoughts on Leafs prospect Jesse Blacker.
His name? Jesse Blacker.
His trade? Keeping the puck out of his own net.
Drafted in the 2nd round at # 58 overall in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, this young man of 6'2 is a diamond in the rough. After being passed up by many teams in the draft due to his defensive inconsistencies, Brian Burke took a risk and drafted the Toronto native. Evidently, after this past season, it appears that that risk might potentially have promising returns. Splitting time between the Windsor Spitfires and the Owen Sound Attack, Blacker posted good totals by scoring 6 goals and 33 assists while collecting 74 PIM along the way.
Blacker is one of the best at bringing the puck out of his own defensive end and making a strong, and intelligent first pass to create solid offensive rushes. In addition, Blacker does not shy away from using his large frame to lay down anyone who crosses over his blue line. But with all these advantages, comes the disadvantages. Blacker tends to commit to one player too often leaving large chunks of the defensive vulnerable for scoring chances.
With the above being said, Blacker is listed at a generous 190 lbs when he realistically closer to 185 lbs. To be able to compete at the NHL level, he will have to be 200 lbs at the bare minimum. His closest NHL comparison would be Keith Ballard (hopefully he doesn't hit his own goalie with a stick though). This comparison is because Keith Ballard is not only a physical presence at moving bodies away from his own net, but also contributes when he can at the offensive end by jumping into the occasional rush.
When will we see Jesse Blacker in the NHL?
- Look to see him make the possible jump to the AHL within the next season or two where he will likely spend 2-3 years as he has just turned 19 this past year. Some fine tuning in the minors will help him beef up and it will allow him to experience the next closest thing to the NHL.
Please comment and I hope you found this article to your satisfaction!
PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.
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Three of the Hawks’ Top 4 D-men are under 195, including likely Norris winner Duncan Keith listed at 6’0", 187. Why does Blacker need to be “at least” 200?
He certainly is an intriguing prospect for a few years from now. Have you seen him play? Hockey Future says that he’s less a bruiser, more a positionally-sound, decently-skilled Gunnarsson type. 2nd pair upside.
Three years from now I’d love to see at least three of Blacker, Gunnar, Holzer, Aulie and Mikus in the Top 6. That’s half your starting defense, likely for under $3MM total cap hit—or $500K less than Finger is paid to warm the press box.
It’s completely necessary for him to be 200 lbs, but in order to meet Burke’s defensive qualifications, it would be most ideal. Ya I saw him play one game after he got traded from Windsor down in Owen Sound.
You are quite right in addressing our impressive, cheap, growing and young defensive core. Mikus is practically NHL ready, Aulie is massive, Holzer has been developing amazingly overseas, and Blacker will make the OHL-AHL jump in due time.
by OverTheHill on May 29, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s not completely necessary *
apologies for the typos.
by OverTheHill on May 29, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
By the way
NHL.com has Keith as 196, TSN has him at 194, and hockeydb.com (probably the least reliable for weight amongst them) has him at 190. A lot of websites give information that is not quite up to date when it comes to a player’s weight, given that it can change constantly through the year. Some sites – and hockeydb is known for this – often just use the weight of the player as they are drafted.
Furthermore, a lot of players start the season off heavier than they finish the season. They bulk up a bit in the summer, and since keeping the bulk 1) slows them down, and tires them out in a long playoff run and 2) is difficult to maintain with the constant traveling and practicing, they shed a few pounds as they go.
Lastly, a lot of players want to conceal their true weight, because they don’t want to give any kind of information away to other teams. Pronger, for example, recently did an interview where he flat out refused to tell Elliott Friedman how much he weighed.
Long story short, it’s difficult to argue how big these players are/should be.
"Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?"
I’ve seen Kadri’s weight range from 167 to 187. Hard to tell how up-to-date sites are, I guess it’s even harder for prospects who are constantly developing.
Leafs Nation: A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on May 29, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
My main concern for the leafs at the moment, is resigning Kulemin. I think he is a valuable piece of the puzzle.
At 3 million a season, he’ll be part of someone else’s puzzle.
by YakovMironov on May 29, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
He's worth
at least that much, if not more.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Shhh his agent will hear you!
Leafs Nation: A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on May 30, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
If Jiri Hudler was only awarded $2.8 million in arbitration last season based off of 23 Goal, 57 Point season I don’t think Kulemin is worth $3,000,000.
by YakovMironov on May 30, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Its not all about point production though, Kulie is developing into a strong defensive checking forward to go along with his skill set.
just say he becomes a fabulous 2 way player but his offensive game never gets much better, then he is worth 3 mill MAX, its probably better for him and the Leafs for him to take less for a 2-3 year window so he can improve and hit his pay day IF he can live up to potential
My Fan Base Can Beat Up Your Fan Base
by JaredFromLondon on May 30, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Better for the Leafs maybe, but I don’t know about him. If somebody is offering him $3M plus for the same term somewhere else and the Leafs won’t budge, he just might take it. I mean, I would if I was in his situation. Who knows what might happen after this contract? We can call him greedy or whatever, but I don’t think any of us, if we were realistically placed in the same situation, would look at it any differently.
Loyalty is a nice thing to hope for but in a salary cap world there’s not that much of it, on both sides. Besides, he’s not Mats Sundin, who was here for more than a decade. This kid’s only played here for two years. How much loyalty can we realistically ask for?
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on May 30, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
How much loyalty can we realistically ask for?
Undying loyalty.
Leafs Nation: A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on May 30, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
its better for him in the respect it gives him that extra motivation
My Fan Base Can Beat Up Your Fan Base
by JaredFromLondon on May 30, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely true, but I don’t think anyone on Toronto will being getting a raise based on defensive merits from last season. 3 million for Kulemin is paying for his potential. He’s not a $3,000,000 a year guy now, and he may never be. As a quick comparision. Dave Bolland makes $3,375,000 a season, in his contract year had 47 points (19 goals), and is the new messiah of two-way strong defensive checking forwards. Bolland also had the benefit of the Tallon qualifying offer fuck up to squeeze extra money out of Chicago.
by YakovMironov on May 30, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
So wait a minute
You think Bolland’s contract is ok at $3.375 million when he scored 47 points and 19 goals playing with the BLACKHAWKS?
But you don’t think Kulemin deserves $3 million ($375,000 less) when he scored 36 points and 16 goals with the LEAFS?
Think about who Kulemin was playing with regularly, and then think about who Bolland was playing with regularly.
Last year Bolland was playing with Andrew Ladd and Marian Hossa on the Hawks 2nd line… this year he’s been playing with Kane and Byfuglien, or Troy Brouwer and Marian Hossa… are you seriously arguing that Kulemin playing with Bozak and Kessel, or Wayne Primeau and Lee Stempniak, is REMOTELY comparable to that?
Bolland put up 3 more goals and 8 more assists playing with players that combined to produce an average of 0.32 gpg, and 0.72 ppg, while Kulemin played with players combining to produce an average of 0.23 gpg, and 0.54 ppg. Obviously Bolland’s output SHOULD be higher.
That doesn’t take away from the fact that Kulemin will probably be at least as productive as Bolland, if not more so.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
woops that should have read
Andrew Ladd and Martin Havlat, not Andrew Ladd and Marian Hossa… either way, Havlat was the Hawks’ leading scorer a year ago, and Kane was the leading scorer this year. Then you add in Hossa, Brouwer, and Byfuglien this season? seriously… Kulemin would be very productive with that group on his line also.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I would argue that if anything, playing with Bolland made Ladd better. It was to both of their benefit to be playing with Havlat statistically. It’s no coincidence that Kulemin was most productive playing with Kessel ( I do consider Kessel/Bozak comparable to Havlat/Ladd). My main points around Bolland are that he needed the Offer Letter Snafu to earn what he did, and he is currently further along than Kulemin is at the same age.
I think Kulemin has the potential to pass Bolland offensively, but not defensively which was the original basis for comparison. Again it seems like the arguement for Kulemin making $3 million is that he has the potential to do similar to what Bolland is already doing.
by YakovMironov on May 30, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I fail to see why
Kulemin won’t surpass Bolland defensively.
He draws far more penalties than he takes, he’s larger, he’s just as fast.
Bolland’s QCOMP is 0.092, while his QTEAM was 0.019. He had a relative Corsi number of -12.8. His GFON60 is 2.71, while his GAON60 is 2.60. On the PK, Bolland’s GAON60 was 3.34.
Kulemin’s QCOMP is 0.056, while his QTEAM was 0.037 (so he was facing less stiff competition while playing with higher quality teammates more during the regular season apparently). His Relative Corsi rating was 6.9, so far far better than Bolland’s. His GFON60 was 2.41 while his GAON60 was 2.51. On the PK his GAON60 was 10.50, although that was largely ruined by the ridiculously horrible play of Vesa Toskala on the PK.
To me that implies he hasn’t yet been productive enough to compare to Bolland offensively, but he is comparable defensively, certainly at 5 on 5, and going forwards probably on the PK also.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Oddly enough GVT has Kulemin at 2.4 VALD and Bolland at 2.0 VALD.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Statistically a strong case for Kulemin, but I am still convinced that currently Bolland is the better defensive player, and I believe he will continue to be. This is partly based on the larger role of the centre in defensive situations.
I am not in anyway knocking Kulemin, he was one of if not the best Leaf last season, but in my opinion, he is not yet a $3 million dollar a year guy. Is he potentially a year away for making me change my mind yes. Should Burke cave instead of letting him go to the KHL? Yes. Should an offer sheet be matched if it is for $3 million? Yes. Can I rattle off a bunch of names of guys making $3,000,000 who Kulemin is better than? Yes.
by YakovMironov on May 30, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok then I'm glad we agree
and since Kulemin is apparently standing firm at $3 million plus, I’m of the opinion he should get it in Toronto, rather than getting it somewhere else.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Kulemin WOWY
I think there’s a pretty good argument that, after Kessel, Kulemin is the Leaf’s most important forward. I think 3M is probably a fair deal, and the Leafs would probably still be wise to pay him even a little more. I suspect Burke is going to want to pay him less than Grabovski thought. Given Kulemin’s zone starts, qualcom, and qualteam, his WOWY CORSI numbers are very good.
http://imbroglioh.blogspot.com/2010/05/nikolai-kulemin-with-or-without-you.html
QTEAM
Kulemin 0.037
Bolland 0.019
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Yeah I caught that
when I was looking up the numbers for my later post…
I find it weird that his QTEAM would be so low when he predominantly played with Kane, Byfuglien, Hossa and Brouwer, while Kulemin was mainly playing with Kessel, Bozak, Primeau, and Stempniak… doesn’t entirely jive for me… but it is what it is I suppose.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
It's sort of like how
Jamie Lundmark has a QTEAM rating of 1.239 with the Leafs, but he predominantly played with Christian Hanson, John Mitchell, Colton Orr, and Rickard Wallin… how the hell does that make sense?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok nevermind
I have no idea where I saw that number, but it’s completely wrong… Lundmark’s QTEAM is -0.033… weird how I misread that before.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I think saying Mikus is practically NHL ready
is a HUGE leap. He didn’t exactly play stellar D for the Marlies this past year. He was a 13, with 5 goals and 18 assists in 68 games. That’s pretty good offensive numbers, but his +/ needs some work I’d say. He also still has to fill out quite a bit. It will be interesting to see how good of shape he comes into camp this year.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess the remaining 3 in your top 6 are Phaneuf Schenn and Komi, ‘cause they aren’t going anywhere for a while.
Leafs Nation: A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on May 29, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup, though I’d love to see Komi traded, particularly if Schenn and Aulie develop as hoped. Unlikely with that contract for at least a couple years.
by The '67 Sound on May 29, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
If Komi can return to his 07-08 form, I am all for keeping him.
Curious to see what kind of contract Volchenkov gets in Free agency.
To be honest, I am more worried about Beauchemin than I am about Komi
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on May 29, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s too early in their contracts to be trading them I’d think. Next trade deadline at the earliest, but I have faith both can return to form. Not too too worried about them. We’ve got too many other problems up front to be worried about Komi and Beauch yet.
Leafs Nation: A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on May 29, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Beauchemin is a year less, and $600K less. I’m worried about him too, I just think he may be gone by the time all of the D prospects are ready (either because his contract expires or because he gets moved in his final year). Komi will never be worth that contract but perhaps he can perform well enough that he’s not a cap killer. I just think that before that contract ends, we’ll have at least one other guy (Aulie?) who can do the same job for about one-fifth the price.
by The '67 Sound on May 30, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for joining and posting Fanposts!
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I enjoyed this concise fanshot. Here’s hoping Blacker becomes a Kaberle-who-hits-people type in the near future.
He'll be far less skilled than
Kaberle.
More Physical, but less offensively talented. I have heard some interesting things about his past also, but I’m not sure how relevant they are to his play with the Leafs.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m sure Chemmy will agree that Blacker’s the most intriguing prospect due to his development time spent playing ball hockey in the Withrow Park league.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Ball hockey
isn’t recognized enough as a player development tool.
the USNTDP does a lot of it’s training with ball hockey set ups.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on May 30, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
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