Proposed Draft Strategy: Pick the little guy who scores a lot

by The '67 Sound on Jun 21, 2010 1:39 PM EDT

Barring a deal, the Leafs won't pick until the 3rd round. What should they do with those picks? Some quick research suggests a strategy unlikely to be favoured by our truculent GM.

I looked at the five drafts from 1999 to 2003. Why that time frame? Because we can safely evaluate most guys from the 2003 draft by now, and I didn't feel like spending more than five minutes looking, OK?

I then looked for "impact players" in the 3rd round and lower from those drafts, which I defined as guys who have been Top 6 forwards or Top 4 defensemen. This was based on a quick review of stat lines on hockeydb.com and my own recollection of players, so feel free to tell me if I'm overlooking any gems here. Here are the lists I came up with:

Forwards:

Matthew Lombardi

Lee Stempniak

Joe Pavelski

Kyle Wellwood (hey, he was good for a couple years and it's a low bar)

Ryan Clowe

Petr Cajanek

Defencemen:

John Michael Liles

What are the italicizations? As you may have guessed from the title, they are guys likely viewed in their draft year as "undersized". All the italicized forwards are listed in hockeydb as 5'11" or less, and all the defensemen are 6'0" or less. And even for the remaining guys who met those thresholds, Malone is probably the only one you would call "big".

In summary, 14 out of 23 late round gems from 1999 to 2003 are undersized guys who score. Moreover, of the nine "big" guys, no less than five of them--Hagman, Zetterberg, Erat, Malone and Vrbata--were from 1999. Maybe scouting wasn't as good back then.

The reason for this phenomenon is obvious. The minors are full of high scoring hobbits who crash and burn at the next level. NHL talent evaluators have become obsessed with "NHL bodies", figuring they can develop their skills but can't change their size. Well guess what? Given the dearth of hulking "late bloomers", it looks like for the most part you can't soften hands of stone. Guys who don't score in junior won't score in the NHL. And guys with size and skill are gone by the 3rd round.

mf37 and I have debated this--is it better to swing for the fences with late round picks or go for a "safe" choice? To me, there are no safe choices beyond the second round and so I'd swing the fences. The best way to do that is to pick the little guy who puts the puck in the net.

And for the love of God don't draft another Jamie Devane.

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watch, jamie Devane is going to score a series winning goal for us one day

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on Jun 21, 2010 1:46 PM EDT reply actions

I think his upside is “punches out guy who could have scored a series winner for opponent”.

by The '67 Sound on Jun 21, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Replace Stanley Cup with Calder Cup and you’ve got the right idea.

The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway

by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 21, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

eh, while I don’t expect him to turn into Pavel Datsyuk or anything the kid is still 19, I’m willing to give him one season where he doesn’t shatter his hand in the warm up games before I start shitting all over him

My Fan Base Can Beat Up Your Fan Base

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 21, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed, didn’t mean to shit on him, it was a joke.

The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway

by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 21, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m all for patience but without doing any research, I think I’m safe in saying that the next forward with 0.25 ppg in his CHL draft year that has an impact in the NHL (with his gloves on), will be the first.

by The '67 Sound on Jun 21, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

heh yea I think your right. I was just being a smartass, it would be funny though if a guy like that ended up scoring a clutch goal for us. For him to even be playing we’d probably have to have about 5 or 6 injuries up front though heh

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on Jun 21, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Great post

Also: Pick the little guy who scores a lot.

That’s what she said.

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by eyebleaf on Jun 21, 2010 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

Your buddy Kaberle obviously fits the mold of “guy deemed too small falls in the draft then kicks ass”.

by The '67 Sound on Jun 21, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice write-up '67

Clowe is the fucking man though. If the Leafs could ever draft someone that can actually use their size like him I’d have no problems. But you’re right, it’s tough to “soften hands of stone”… I’ve been playing hockey since I was six and I still can’t stickhandle worth a fuck… damn this enormous frame

Blue on both sides: Maple Stir-up

by maplestirup on Jun 21, 2010 2:11 PM EDT reply actions

You should watch me on a breakaway… no defenceman and I still manage to lose the puck at least once in every five tries!

My Art Portfolio

by CanadianMaple09 on Jun 21, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

i hear ya, i had ball hockey last night and i totally whiffed on about 4 golden chances from the slot…. felt like such a John Mitchell

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on Jun 21, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I still don't like John Mitchell

So I laughed at this.

Before some goes all ‘best points per dollar spent’ on me, yes he is an amazing 4th liner, maybe even a serviceable third liner.

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 21, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I don’t know what the deal is with Clowe. Maybe he grew after being drafted? I also note in his draft year he only played 32 games. Maybe there was a perceived injury risk?

Malone is weird. Total late bloomer—his draft year he was a middling player in the USHL, and his stats (and age) were matched almost identically by the immortal Joe Motzko.

by The '67 Sound on Jun 21, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions