2009-2010 Nikolai Kulemin
From Beauchemin to Stalberg, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2009-10 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Maple Leafs for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2010-11. That means only guys that are still property of the Maple Leafs. We're doing this in concert with Maple Leafs Hot Stove. Next up, Nikolai Kulemin. No, you didn't learn your alphabet incorrectly. I was playing soccer with my dad.
The Summary:
Nikolai Kulemin continued his development into the Maple Leafs' best two-way forward just in time for his agent to try to play hardball with Papa Burke over his new contract. Rumours are that they are $1M apart but the reality is that if Kulemin, as he has indicated with his words and his actions, wants to play in the NHL then the Leafs have the upperhand thanks to the CBA.
But why is this dragging out? Well, let's look at his season to see why Kulemin might expect more from Burke.
The Good:
Kulemin has grown leaps and bounds since the beginning of the 2008-2009 season. His counting stats didn't make the big leap we were hoping to see but you could tell that his confidence that he was an NHLer had cemented and that he was adept at using his size and speed to harry the opposition's defence. He made the move from the third line to the top line with Tyler Bozak and Phil Kessel effortlessly and while there is some truth to the fact that he is a first liner by default on the team that should not detract from the potential that he has shown.
Among the Leaf forwards that finished the year with the team he had the third highest GVT, played the 2nd toughest opponents, he's fourth in Corsi relative to both his competition and his teammates, and he was second in terms of +/-ON at even strength. Who was the only Leaf to be a positive? The man that is depressing his salary demands.
The Bad:
His counting stats relative to his performance. Let me present a case study that Kulemin's agent is well aware of and that might shine a light on why Burke isn't coming close to their valuation:
This man makes $2.9M a year for the next two seasons and is 'overpaid'. Kulemin's counting stats show only promise that he could reach Grabovski's level of production and as well all know efficiency is the name of the game. Better to pay Kulemin for what we know he can do and be pleasantly surprised (not to mention cap-wise) than to pay him for what we think he can do and be sharpening our pitchforks in two years.
The picture isn't even clear if you go to advanced stats like corsi where Grabovski has the better numbers relative to the teammates he plays with but Kulemin has better numbers relative to the competition he faces. Both also do a great job of drawing penalties which is a testament to their respective work rates and ability to hold on to the puck. Finally, Tom Awad's GVT paints a picture of Grabovski as the better defensive player.
The Ugly:
The Leafs have not had a player hold out since Felix Potvin after Curtis Joseph was signed by the Leafs. I don't think it will get to that point but it would certainly mark the first ugly event in Kulemin's career as a bud.
The Eye Candy:
The Discussion:
Well, we know where this is going no matter what so knock yourselves out.
Audience Participation:
Rate Kulemin below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
53 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
6
Slow start to the year, didn’t pick up his play until late. Was getting quality minutes without production in December and January. I’ll give him a slight boost for his excellent play in March, but was not a consistent performer October-April. Additionally, I expected more goal production, hands down.
The Wideman Faceplant...
…that gets me every time. =)
I gave him a 6 as well, though that may be due to the whole team sucking it up for a couple of months than an actual problem with Kule.
7
Based on last year I figured him as a 2nd/3rd year guy, so he exceeded expectations. I thought he played well all year but was dragged down by some terrible teammates. Based on how he finished the season with Bozak and Kessel, I think he actually has legitimate first line potential. He’s not going to carry a first line, but he can certainly contribute positively there.
Exhibit A in his agent’s case will no doubt be the 15 game, ppg stretch he put together before Kessel got hurt and Wilson started playing linemate blender at the end of the year.
8
Agree with what you said about first line potential.
I’ve been a fan of his since his first Leaf game, which I attended, so he gets an 8 from me.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 22, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
6
and i’m one of the ones leading the charge to play hardball with the guy.
I had high hopes for him and he exceeded them — in every aspect but offensive stats.
I absolutely think he’s trending in the right direction, but he’s not here yet. This is the ONLY time we have leverage over him in his career, and I suggest we do. Good teams manage the cap well. We have enough overpaid but useful vets, we need younguns like Kulie to be efficient to offset, if not exceed that.
Based on everything I know about arbitration and comparables, anything Kulie gets north of $2.5M a year is a major overpay AT THIS POINT. I’m hoping for something in the 2-2.5 range myself. Not unlike Poni’s last contract (and for the record I think Kulie has more potential than Poni does/did.
If we’re going above $2.5M a year, I want some UFA years tacked on. A contract like the one Stempniak got (1.5, 2.5, 3.5) would sit well with me.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
. He made the move from the third line to the top line with Tyler Bozak and Phil Kessel effortlessly and while there is some truth to the fact that
The fact that what?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 22, 2010 12:45 PM EDT reply actions
that he might just be a 1st line winger
My Fan Base Can Beat Up Your Fan Base
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 22, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
7
I never thought he’d get top line minutes, but he was an integral part of the forecheck on the Kuli-Bozak-Kessel line. Didn’t look out of place, although I wish our forward depth wasn’t so thin that he is forced onto the top line.
Did better than I expected.
Let’s finish up this contract BS. Don’t trade him Burke, we need a homegrown (as in, developed by the Leafs, not homegrown as in from Toronto) hard forechecker like this.
Sons of '67: A drinking team with a hockey problem.
9
I had fairly low expectations, and to start the season, Kulemin was about a 5 for me (meeting those low expectations) and playing third line minutes with third line (AHL) quality teammates. Pre-Olympics, he was averaging 0.37 PPG, but jumped to 0.71 PPG over the 21 game post Olympic span.
Not sure what Wilson was thinking in keeping Kulemin’s minutes down to start the season, but if he played in a top 6 roll all season long, those 37 points might look a whole lot more like 55…
Also, SBN may need to update their player profiles. The Leafs site has Kulemin listed at 225lbs
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jun 22, 2010 12:48 PM EDT reply actions
7
Easily my favourite Leaf. Plays a nice two-way game, excels on the forecheck and uses his size well.
I’d like to see him do more offensively with the prime ice time when he gets it. Finishing the season pointless in his last six games sure didn’t help.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
5
Goals per game:
08/09 0.21
09/10 0.21
Assists per game
08/09 0.22
09/10 0.26
He had the same season two years in a row except this year he rode 21 games alongside Bozak and Kessel who were absolutely murdering.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
But for half this year he was playing 3rd line minutes with some pretty crappy linemates.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 22, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
that is simply not true. his minutes in December and January were the same as several other guys like Hagman, Blake, etc.
October, November were brutal months for him, including being a healthy scratch.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 22, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure but I’m making it clear that his statement, while hyperbole, is somewhat based in fact.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 22, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It is hyperbolic, I just like Kulemin.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 22, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Well if he wants $3 million a year he should be putting up good numbers, even if he’s playing with crappy linemates.
That being said, I give him an 8 because he was probably the Leafs’ most complete 2 way player this year.
$3M is a joke. Hagman signed here for $3M after a 27 goal season.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
by Chemmy on Jun 22, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And Hagman was a UFA not an RFA.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
He needs to shoot more. Only 145 shots last year, 129 the year before. Don’t know if that’s because of how his ice time is ditributed or the roles he’s placed in … but they need to see that he gets more opportunities to shoot it.
Shoots 11% consistently. Only 455 shots to get him 50 goals.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
6
I know he played well relative to his team, but this was kind of the minimum of what I expected. If he had come out of training camp the way he finished this season or last season, the Leafs might have had better luck in October.
Do I remember right? Wasn’t he a healthy scratch a couple of times back then?
I've been looking at the sky
7
(Though I voted 8 and then changed my mind slightly)
Based on his continued improvement over the course of the year, I would be pretty disappointed if the contractual stand-off is not resolved. Some of it (the improvement) was definitely down to becoming more comfortable in both the NHL, and as a Leaf, obviously aided by the manner in which his role increased.
One thing I cannot understand, is if Brian Burke refuses to pay him the alleged 3m a year because it is ‘first line’ money, why exactly did he pay Grabovski the same amount 12 months prior? Did he consider Mikhail our #1 centre? Or was he paying him based on the belief he could evolve into such a player, and does his refusal to do with Kulemin stem from not feeling Nik has that potential? Or was it simply overpaying Grabo, and not wanting to make the same mistake again?
I have no blog. Yet. But I do post interesting thoughts on Twitter [@dbfinch]. Occasionally.
What were people’s expectations of Kulemin that he exceeded them? Honestly. He had one more goal and four more assists in five more games than last year.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
not everyone’s expectations are based on numbers
I liked what I saw from him more this year. He didn’t seem to get tired out at the end of the year like last season. He was a more important part of the team – now, maybe that was because we lost Antro, traded Poni, etc. but he stepped up and that was more than I expected.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 22, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
If it’s about more than numbers I need you to back up things like “he stepped up”.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
he played well enough so that Wilson felt comfortable putting him on the top line after making him a healthy scratch to start the season = “stepping up”
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 22, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Did he play well enough to earn that spot? Who else would have played with Kessel and Bozak? Hanson? Stalberg?
Seems to me he was thrust into that role by default.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Sure, but it seems otherwise to me.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 22, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Meaning, partially default, partially because he deserved it (to a point).
If he had not improved his game physically and been willing to go into the corners more, he wouldn’t have been given that role, even if there were a dearth of other options.
I’m not saying he’s a first line winger, I’m saying he impressed me with his level of play this year and that I think he had to improve his game to get to where he was at the end of the season.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 22, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
as outlined above
he started the season, and played the bulk of it in a bottom 6/secondary offensive role and did about what I expected. After the Olympic break, he was moved up a primary offensive role and really “stepped up” by averaging 0.71 PPG over that 21 game span.
Essentially, he replaced Poni.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jun 22, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
And he should get Poni’s last deal. I think that would work out well.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Agreed.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 22, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
sure
and I think a short term deal would be beneficial for Kulemin. If he really wants to cash in, take a low $/short term deal and work at continuing to improve his game
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jun 22, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I did not have high expectations at all of him. Then again, I thought he would be on the 2nd-3rd pairing.
Sons of '67: A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 22, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
GVT 08-09: 3.2
GVT 09-10: 7.8
I could go into all the behindthenet stats but I think this summarizes his comparative impact nicely.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 22, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Which makes me happy GVT and behindthenet stats are not admissible in arbitration.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 22, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
5
I think his offensive game didn’t progress as much as I would have liked in terms of production but in terms of the confidence he had it did. Plus his physical game improved.
However, I think it’s clear that if Grabovski is overpaid then giving more money to Kulemin for less is insane.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
7
While he matched his scoring stats, he started to use his body more. Look at his hits, 136 this year (enough for 2nd on the team) to 73 last year. I know it’s only one stat of many, but it is something I noticed.
If that puck had gone off of Thomas’ leg that was stretched out in the air at 1:20 of the video that would’ve been save of the year material. Instead it’s a great goal for Kulemin… funny how the world works but hey, we’ll take it!
by CanadianMaple09 on Jun 22, 2010 2:04 PM EDT reply actions
what's hilarious
to me, about that video, is that even though I knew before I clicked it was a video of an OT goal by the Leafs to win, the Buds’ goaltending was such an abomination this year that the whole first minute I find myself trying not to watch since I’m expecting the Leaf goalie to boot it and we lose.
THAT’s hilarious.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
5
Didn’t improve significantly from 08/09, shows flashes of becoming a full-time top 6 forward, but isn’t quite there yet. Would have given him a 6 or maybe even a 7, but dropped a mark or two for his laughable salary expectations.
by CancerousRocket on Jun 22, 2010 8:57 PM EDT reply actions

by


































