Leafs decline to tender contract to Mitchell. Will be UFA on July 1. talks will continue. Mitchell wants to return, Leafs want him back. If the Leafs had qualified Mitchell with an offer to retain his rights, Mitchell also would have qualified for arbitration. The Leafs didn’t want to take the risk Mitchell would win an arbitration case for more than $1 million. Leafs hoping to get him for significantly less.
Kevin McGran clarifies the John Mitchell situation. Excellent reporting and, turns out, excellent cap management by Brian Burke.
More significantly, I think that this might confirm that Nikolai Kulemin is NOT arbitration eligible.
almost 2 years ago
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It makes sense. Should Mitchell go to arbitration, he could wind up making a lot more money. Plus, he’d likely have to hear the Leafs perspective on how worthless he is.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
But they basically send that message
by not qualifying him… since if they thought he was worth what the rest of the league is likely to they wouldn’t hesitate to qualify him.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Potulny
didn’t get qualified either… i wonder if a similar situation is happening there.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Frankly it's dumb on the NHL GM's that are doing it
you get effective 3rd or 4th line players for around $1 mill, and you let them walk because you don’t want to add $50-100 K in salary? But you’re willing to throw an extra $500 K at 3rd pairing D men with serious injury problems…
seriously it’s freaking moronic.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
He made $500,000 last year
a 10% raise would take him to $550,000.
Not exactly a lot in NHL terms.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Not necessarily… as the fanpost says, if he goes to arb, he could get >$1m for 1 year.
So it could be a discrepency of $450,000 or more.
Just sayin’.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
and if he gets that
THEN you walk… and he’s a UFA… but without the process we’re already at that stage… THAT is the part that’s moronic.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Arbitration results are binding! You don’t get to go to arbitration and then say “nah” and let him walk.
Yes you do
you either accept the deal as offered … or don’t pay it and the guy becomes UFA immediately.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Here
Walk-Away Rights.
(a) If a Club has elected to arbitrate a one year contract, and the award issued is for $550,000 or more per annum, then the Club may, within 72 hours after the award of the Arbitrator is
issued (or if a Club has any other player still eligible for salary arbitration at that time and for whom a decision has not been rendered by an Arbitrator at that time, and the Club still has a walk-away right available to it in such League Year pursuant to paragraph (d) below, 72 hours after the award of the Arbitrator for such other player is issued), notify the player, the NHLPA and the NHL in writing that it does not intend to tender to the player a Player Contract based on the award as determined by the Arbitrator. Upon receipt of that notice, the player shall automatically be deemed to be an Unrestricted Free Agent, subject to the provisions of paragraphs © and (d) below.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Looked it up, and you’re right – a team can turn down an arbitration award. But how are you saying that this would be a better option than undercutting Mitchell’s rights to arbitration? “All or nothing” or “we’ll buy more time for negotiations.”?
Basically
I think that since we don’t know the arbitration outcome it’s a bit premature to assume he’d get a huge raise. I also think it’s absurd to say you don’t think he’s worth what you THINK he’d get in arbitration, and then continue to negotiate.
If I’m the player and his agent how the hell does that look to me? You think I’ll get more on the open market than you’re willing to pay me – but you want to keep me? seriously… screw you.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the Leafs giving him a chance to find out what he’s worth on the open market instead of going to arbitration.
If he thinks he’s worth 1.5 mil+, and he finds it out there, I’ll help him pack his bags, really. If he gets out there and no one will pay him the big bucks, come on back to the big TO.
If I'm Mitchell
this sort of thing would probably make me take a 10% raise just to play for another franchise that wants to keep me more sincerely…
I just think it’s a typical labour/ownership divide. Labour is replacable… ownership doesn’t really give a shit… etc.
I think either way it’s poor asset management. Even if they qualify him just to retain his rights, they could trade him somewhere else where he’s wanted if they can’t sort out a deal.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course they do
at the right price for both… hence the whole arbitration problem.
I like working as a teacher, but just because I want to teach doesn’t mean I want to do it for less than I deserve. I’m sure the school board is happy to have me teach, but it doesn’t mean they want to pay me whatever the heck I want.
Just because they want me and I want to work for them doesn’t mean we’ll agree on the price point.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You're skipping the step
where the arbitrator assesses his worth… for no particular reason other than hurt feelings? But in the process you don’t tender a qualifying offer which could hurt his feelings just the same?
I just think it’s a bit weird.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
A bit weird, yes
But I’m not sure I’m ready to get upset yet until he signs with another team.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Even then, if someone offers 1.5+, bye bye Johnny.
Because some player nicknames just make sense.
by Sergei Puckizin on Jun 29, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see it that way. Maybe the Leafs are saying:
“here’s what we are willing to pay you to be our 4th line center. if you want more, you are more than welcome to test the free agent waters. Our offer will remain on the table until a certain point”
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Yeah but if the Leafs publicly say “we hope to get him for less than the NHL would give him” doesn’t that give Mitchell’s agent ammo to say “uhhhh, $1M”?
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
OK so
we’re either at John Mitchell is a bit slow and thinks he needs to offer a hometown discount at the age of 26 when he was earning one of the lowest amounts in the NHL last year…
OR…
the Leafs don’t give a shit if he signs elsewhere….
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Maybe the Leafs feel they can replace Mitchell’s production for less money.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Heh, that’s unlikely.
I still kind of feel it could have more to do with the Top 6/Bottom 6 mentality Burke wants… Mitchell doesn’t score enough to be a Top 6 and isn’t enough of a tough guy for the bottom 6… he’s kind of in no mans land in Burke’s structure.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
The 50-200k Mitchell might make with the RFA raise isn’t as much as it would cost him in time and money to move, this is what I am thinking. I wouldn’t want to move, especially considering an offer sheet/trade gives him no say in the matter, whereas being a UFA does. Edmonton? No fucking thank you.
It doesn't cost
50-200K to move… that is insanity if you think it costs that much.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Look the reason he walks is
he gets more money to play elsewhere… he’s 26 years old… he could make over a million dollars finally… My opinion of him just dropped a bit more if he decides to turn that down just so he can get screwed over a bit by the bosses of his hometown team.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Question
If he gets arbitration, say gets $1.1M (just throwing a number out there), is that only for 1 year?
Maybe Leafs want to do something along the lines of a $750k cap hit, over a few years instead?
Still… i don’t like no qualifying offer. Hmm.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes arbitration deals
are single years only as far as I know.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
so are qualifying offers
for that matter.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I was under this misconception as well…
Not true, Hudler’s arbitration award was for 2 years.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok
well that’s a different wrinkle… which takes out that issue.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Although
The limit is either 1 or 2 years… no longer deals are possible.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
This is also interesting
(b) If a Club has elected to arbitrate a two year contract and the award issued is for $550,000 or more per annum, then the Club may, within 72 hours after the award of the Arbitrator is
issued (or, if a Club has any other player still eligible for salary arbitration at that time and for whom a decision has not been rendered by an Arbitrator at that time, and the Club still has a walk-away right available to it in such League Year pursuant to paragraph (d) below, 72 hours after the award of the
Arbitrator for such other player is issued), notify the player, the NHLPA and the NHL in writing that it does not intend to tender to the player a two year Player Contract based on the award as determined by the Arbitrator. Upon receipt of that notice by either the player or the NHL, the player and the Club
shall enter into a one year Player Contract providing for the Compensation set forth in the award and the player will automatically be deemed to be an Unrestricted Free Agent at the conclusion of that one year Player Contract subject to the provisions of paragraphs © and (d) below.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I said it costs that in time AND money. Moving is a bitch, especially if its across the continent and he’s got to sell his house, find a house, renovate, etc.
For a guy making 1.5 million plus, its not a big deal, but for a guy only making 500k, its not really worth it.
lol
is this coming from a guy making $500K? Hell if you make $500 K, leave the house wherever you live and rent a hotel room near the team you’re playing for during the regular season. You’re on the road half the season anyway.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
And why the hell
would he have to renovate? There are finished homes for sale.
He can get help from his agent with all of that I’m sure… or his gf can handle it.
The idea that someone wouldn’t move across the country for a $500 K a year job is ridiculous. I’m sure a hell of a lot of people would take that in a heartbeat.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
moving can easily cost $150K. my company just moved a guy from out west to TO, and i think we eneded up paying even more than that…. movers, realtor fees, legal fees, temporary storage, having to buy new furniture/appliances/drapes, etc etc. it adds up.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
Do those people play on a Toronto Maple Leaf team about to acquire Savard and Kovalchuck and go on an epic march to the Stanley Cup?
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 28, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Its not like he was making 100k and is getting offered 500k to move for his new job, he could end up only being offered say a 100k raise by another team, which I dont see as worth it to pack up his life and move (as in I dont see a 20% raise when you are already making that much as worth it)
You wouldn't move jobs for a 20% pay raise?
I’d consider moving if someone gave me a 20% pay raise.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not saying I, personally, wouldn’t move for a 20% pay raise, but if the guy is already making 500k a year, another 20% isn’t really going to change his quality of life. In this case, I am just saying that if given the option, he decided he’d rather go to UFA and risk not getting a raise, as he at least has control over his fate now, whereas if he was offer sheeted or traded he wouldnt.
Unless it’s a one year deal, which seems unlikely, free agents are going to live in a hotel or something until they find a more permanent NHL home. I don’t think it’s that big of a deal for a player to move when they’re young, relatively unattached individuals.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
You will probably never earn $200K in one year in your life.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
It's hard to say the true motives behind the non-qualifying today.
If there is a gentlemen’s agreement here, then we could get JFM for less than $550 (or the >$1m from arbitration)
But Leafs also risk losing him to another team who might offer him that amount in Thursday.
I wonder if they still try to get something done before Thurs… or whether Burke sees how his offseason plans play out first.
Still… curious. Seems like the Leafs are nickel-and-diming him here. Makes me worried that BB really may not be ready to throw a massive contract at a Kovalchuk deal.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
If they were nicle and diming Kulemin i’d be worried. This is Mitchell were talking about so I could care less.
Kulemin
… has also yet to be paid. And their discrepency is over salary (apparently).
I can’t tell if Burke trying to become tougher in terms of cap management, or maybe trying to stop the plague of bloated, undeserved contracts?
Is it possible our new capologist assistant GM guy has anything to do with all of these seeming “tougher” contract negotiations?
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Could be both things. Also, Burke could be inclined to sign Mitchell for lnger term at the right cap hit so he can lock in cheap goodness.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Also possible
But you’d think that wouldn’t have taken this long to sort out (up until the very last minute) if there wasn’t some type of distance between what he thinks he deserves and what the Leafs are willing to offer.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah the arbitration thing
would only lock Mitchell in for 2 years at most… although he’d still be an RFA after the contract either way and they’d retain his rights.
I’m just not sure of the logic behind taking away control of the asset from the management’s perspective.
If I’m Mitchell I immediately test the waters on the 1st.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe the Leafs told him to. Don’t forget, Burke has made it publicly known that he will let players go if they have an opportunity for more playing time elsewhere
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
To be fair
this still has about 600 less comments on it than the Joel Champagne debaucle.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
So that's 2 assets
that have walked unsigned or untendered… for no particular reason?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
As I was saying before
Just because we can’t see the logic in it from outside, doesn’t mean there isn’t a logic to it.
We will soon see how this all plays out.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Logic
can be flawed…
just because I don’t know their logic doesn’t mean I have to think the decision gets a pass.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Mitchell
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Yes. I. Know.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Question, we still own his rights until July 1st, could we therefore sign him as if he were a UFA in the next 2 days?
Yes.
we could… in fact he is not yet a UFA… he’s still an RFA… which placed no limits on what we could offer him either way.
He’s our player at this point and we can offer him whatever we want.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
If I were Mitchell though
knowing I’m a UFA in 3 days, I’m not going to sign anything that isn’t a sweet deal for me.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s funny because when it was Champagne Steve was banging the “this shit happens every year on every team, it’s no big deal” when the point was what he is arguing today: that it could point to a larger issue of asset management.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Hehe
I think you’re right.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
You are
AND… I will clarify something here about my problem with this.
1. Champagne was an unsigned draft pick who had never set foot in an NHL rink so I have no idea if he was a capable or productive NHL player.
2. Despite my railing against John Mitchell, I’ve finally become willing to admit he has a lot of value for an NHL franchise… last season he was the 2nd most valuable forward in the NHL from a TOI perspective vs. dollar cost after Rich Peverley, and I believe he was in the top 30 NHL forwards from a points per cost perspective.
3. Consider he’s productive at the NHL level, and cost effective… I’d like to keep that kind of asset.
I’m MORE concerned about point 3… and players of that ilk… than I am about players like point 1.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the problem is
the Leafs are paying a few people a lot of money to analyze the same thing, and I’m not 100% sure they’re making the most air tight decisions.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the problem is
we don’t have all of the facts and you’re making generalizations that the front office don’t know how to do their jobs. Which is silly.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
No
I’m saying I’m not 100% sure their decisions are air tight… I never said they don’t know how to do their jobs. You’re putting text to my name that I never typed.
Oddly we can all read what I said… try not to read between the lines too much when I type… there isn’t enough space between all the text to worry about what I’m NOT saying.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
the Leafs are paying a few people a lot of money to analyze the same thing, and I’m not 100% sure they’re making the most air tight decisions.
that’s pretty much questioning their ability to do their jobs.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
No it isn't.
but ok.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of people in a lot of jobs
make the occasional poor decision… that doesn’t mean they can’t do their jobs… it just might mean they make mistakes while doing it. I’m pretty sure the guy behind the counter at Subway makes the occasional mistake, that doesn’t mean I want his head on a platter.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me put it another way
obviously Brian Burke is a capable NHL GM… does that mean I’m 100% certain every player and asset management decision he has made in his career is perfect? NO EFFING WAY.
There is no way that I’m saying he can’t do his job in that statement… I just think the man may screw up on occasion. I’m ok with the concept of people making mistakes… and I also appreciate having the time to analyze said mistakes in his case.
Either way, don’t mistake my questioning of his occasional lapses in judgment with questioning his ability to be an NHL GM.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
P.S.
If you take anyone questioning your judgment on your job on occasion as them implying you can’t do your job you probably spend a lot of time upset with those people… in which case I would advise that you recognize that nobody is perfect.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks for the life advice Steve. I’ll be sure to keep that in mind.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
You're welcome
you can deposit the $$$ you owe me as your life coach via paypal.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
and in hindsight, I think Burke has made mistakes in not getting ANYTHING for assets on occasion.
Letting players walk or go on waivers just to get playing time elsewhere? how is that good management?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
In terms of asset management
it’s bad. No 2 ways about it.
In terms of player dealing though, he could be trying to get intangibles. How a team treats their players (giving them opportunities to play if they don’t fit into the current system, trying to trade them if they request it, trying to get them to a team that they want to be (i.e Kaberle)) could have intangible long-run benefits.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
@mirtle
Sounds like Leafs don’t give qualifying offer to John Mitchell…cost wasn’t issue.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
Right
ok so cost wasn’t the problem… which is then making it MORE confusing… wtf WAS the issue then?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Term
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Which begs the question
why would the Leafs not tender? If Mitchell wants SHORT term… then the arbitration is an issue… but I fail to see why that would bother the Leafs so much. I also don’t get why he would want a short term contract (Mitchell that is)… but I can see how he thinks he might maximize his value by renegotiating after a less injury riddled season where he gets to be more productive.
The Leafs likely want to capitalize on his off year to get him locked in at a cheap cost… hmmm… I’d walk as Mitchell and do a short term deal with someone else.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Because of what you said: the Leafs DO think Mitchell CAN play a role on the team and they know they are getting him cheap because of his knee injury so they can lock him in for longer.
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by nhlcheapshot on Jun 28, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Other than mf 37, there’s probably no picker Burke skeptic than me but I like this move. The key issue here is that Mitchell is probably worth more in arbitration than on the open market. Boxcar stats flatter him because he got 3rd line minutes on a crappy team with no depth and put up numbers that probably justify a salary over $1MM in arbitration. But we all know he probably isn’t worth that much… and NHL GMs know that too.
So you have a situation where he gets, say, $1.25MM at arbitration (I haven’t run comparables, just guessing), but his UFA market value is $800,000. Maybe he’s willing to do a bit of a hometown discount and you can get him at $750,000. How isn’t that good asset management? You’ve removed his one major leverage point in negotiations: arbitration.
Frankly I’m ticked at myself for not anticipating the arbitration angle.
FWIW I don’t think this tells us anything about Kulemin’s arb eligibility because I think he’s the opposite of Mitchell: arbitration undervalues Kulemin but overvalues Mitchell.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 28, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Burke is thinking one level up
From how I am reading the CBA, if you have multiple arbitrations in one year, you can walk away from one less than the number of hearings you have – Unless you only have 1, then you can walk away from it.
Say if Kulemin and Bozak (if they are eligible) go to arbitration in addition to Mitchell, you can only walk away from 2 of the three decisions.
Maybe Burke thinks he will have at least one other arbitration and he would much rather have the option of walking away from that one than walking away from the Mitchell arbitration.
Makes sense to me – id rather walk away from a Kulemin arbitration of 3.5 million than waste your ‘walk away’ on a 1 million decision for Mitchell.
© Notwithstanding the provisions of paragraphs (a) and (b) above, a Club
may exercise the walk-away rights referred to therein not more than one (1) time in a
League Year in which the Club has only one (1) salary arbitration award, one (1) time in
a League Year in which the Club has two (2) salary arbitration awards, two (2) times in
any League Year in which the Club has three (3) salary arbitration awards, two (2) times
in any League Year in which the Club has four (4) salary arbitration awards, three (3)
times in any League Year in which the Club has five (5) salary arbitration awards and so
on. If a Club exercises its walk-away right with respect to a two-year award, the walkaway
right shall be deemed to be exercised in the first year of the two-year SPC.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 7:12 PM EDT reply actions
sorry, even worse than that. Reading further shows the amount of walk-aways decrease at a greater rate with more arbitration hearings.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Important reference: Kulemin can get the fuck out for anything over $2.5M
Pension Plan Puppets*
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Wait. We should overpay for Kulemin like Olez and Bfuglien because even though he has 67 points in two years, he could still be really really good.
And who are going to find that will hit a lot? THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Steve Ott has a 22 goal season, as well as a season high points total of 46. He just signed a 4 year extension for 2.95 a year. Steve Ott should be paid more than Nik Kulemin.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
yup, i want to know what the hell Kulies agent is on if he is insisting on 3 plus for a 2 year NHL vet who has never cracked the 40 point barrier. I mean playing on the first line doesnt fucking matter if you arn’t producing at a 1st line pace
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m sure hes thinking “Well, Grabovski is making 2.9…so Kulie deserves 3” Neither deserve anything like that….
grabbo is a a lock to score 50 points a year if he is healthy, and 2.9 is actually a little lower than market for someone who can do that
Kulie has not proven he can do that
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Paying for potential is the issue here, I think. Ott is 27, Kulemin is 23. Not that I want to pay Kulemin more than $2 mill but this is probably where they are coming from.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 28, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s nice. He can score 36 points literally anywhere else for $3M+.
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yup
if his agent can find another team to pay that for him, go ahead, get us some picks.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 28, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
you know who had potential nik? Alexandre Daigle, and look how that turned out
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but most of these 2nd deals seem to be paying for potential lately. Kulemin’s demands are not without precedent. I just don’t think we should give in to them.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 28, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m just amazed that there are Leafs fans against the Savard deal because of his contract who want to sign Kulemin.
$3M = 36 pts = good deal
$4M = 80 pts = bad deal
My head hurts.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
If only we had a way to distinguish us from them.
For instance, i saw a Leaf fan on twitter ask McKenzie if he thinks Bobby Ryan will be a Leaf on July 1. Why do I have to get lumped in with these people?
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 28, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Kulemin hits a lot more than Savard. And we all know hitting wins games. Can you find a guy to play in your top 6 who will hit and has potential to maybe one day be a 50 point player? CAN YOU?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
batman
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there's a bit of a problem with this sarcasm
players who score 50 points and register 150 hits are far more rare than players who score 70+ points and don’t hit at all… they are also highly valued by GM’s like Brian Burke… thus once you have them you probably don’t want to relinquish them easily.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
indeed, and when we have a player who can hit 50 points and 150 people, then it might be an issue
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
And who on the Leafs is a 50 point, 150 hit guy? Because it sure isn’t Kulemin.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
he has never scored 50 points nor made 150 hits in a season. Considering his first year he only had 73 hits, it’s very possible that this year was an outlier.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Sure
But Kulemin just completed his second full season. I get you’re not a personal fan of the guy, but it’s not like he’s not without potential or age. Dude was a highly thought of prospect not too long ago. He still was until this arbitration hearing.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
You’ve got it wrong. I like Kulemin. I guess I just don’t see how one month of good production is enough to pay the guy like a 50 point player
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Well I said $2.4
next year… which would be at the upper end of a 25-50 point player… if he got 45 points he’d be doing fine using my scaling system.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
But he’s not trying to get paid for just that one month. He’s trying to get paid for the future. Burke knows that, you know that because that’s how contract negotiations work.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
If Nik Kuleim put up 15 points 4 months out of the year, Burke should pay him whatever he wants. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened yet. He’s only done it once, while playing with the two best offensive guys on the team.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Right. But Kulie’s stance is that he will score more in the future and so his contract should reflect that future. I don’t know what Burke thinks, likely he believes Kulie can improve a lot more. But he wants to keep Kulie at a bargain. I don’t blame either party.
Just because I have questions about Savard doesn’t make it invalid because I have a more favourable view of Kulie, which seems to be the vibe I’ve been getting from previous threads. Not necessarily form you, of course,
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
Again
I’m not sure Bozak is one of the two best offensive players on the team.
I’d say the top 2 offensive players on the team last year were Kaberle and Kessel… if we’re talking forwards… I’d say Grabovski and Kessel based on past production.
Bozak has potential, but he isn’t the number 2 guy on the team just yet.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not on board with paying Kulemin 3mil, and he will never have the top end potential of a Savard.
But Kulemin is on the upswing of his career and Savard could very will be on the downswing.
I’d take Savard for a few unsigned prospects or minor leaguers, just not for Kabs straight up.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
My head hurts.
So does Savard’s…
*p.s.: I agree with Chemmy; just couldn’t resist the joke.
jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog
"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator)
I'm not sure
who has ever argued Kulemin deserves $3 million a year or more from the fan side of things.
Since I was one of his boosters typically I’m guessing I’m being referenced in this debate… but I’ve pretty firmly said I think he deserves around the same as Grabovski.
I also think that this is based on potential… which is apparently not welcome but whatever.
As for Savard… my issue with his contract isn’t the cost, it’s the term and his age.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
any hockey decision is a risk. roll the dice and hope savard doesn’t get his bell rung again, or roll the dice and sign a guy to $3M and hope he increases his performance and actually earns his contract.
savard’s upside is huge, and the downside is minimal. if he regresses and ends up a 50 point guy, that’s ok for $4m cap hit. if he gets injured and has to go on LTIR, it doesn’t hit the cap. if he retires, his cap hit goes away as well.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
Oh god, I watched OTR tonight for the first time in years. I was reminded why.
Because some player nicknames just make sense.
by Sergei Puckizin on Jun 29, 2010 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
So did I actually. It was so bad.
I like to get banged.
by Phaneuf's Rock Collection on Jun 29, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
well yes, but how do you gauge “potential” ?
Kulemin is a 2nd round pick, who is physical, decent at both ends of the ice, throws his body around, doesn’t take too many stupid penalties and has scored less than 80 points in 2 years in the nhl.
has he shown somewhere that he has an offensive ceiling of 50+ points? I mean he had one good stretch of points at the end of last season sure, but that was probably more of a product of playing with Bozak and Kessel who were lights fucking out and it wasnt even for 15 games, hell anyone can have an amazing 15 games here or there.
I mean I like to think that one day Kulie will be a steal at 3 mill a year but there is no hard driven proof that he has that potential
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
there’s no hard driven proof of anyone’s “potential.” Gretzky has said he thinks Crosby could break his records… so far there is no hard driven proof of that.
I agree with Mirtle though, these types of deals are pretty common around the league, and it all comes down to scouts/GMs trying to evaluate the “potential” of a player. I’m not really sure how they do that although I’d love to read up on it if anyone knows where I could.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 28, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
well thats the thing, i mean i can look at a player like Bozak and get a rough estimation that he can be a 60-65 point man, I can look at Kessel and say, he has potential to score 45 goals, I cant say ive ever looked at kulemin and though hmmm, he looks like he will be scoring 55 points every year
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Kulemin is a 3rd line energy guy on a good team.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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yup, I think his absolute peak is a good 2nd liner every situation guy
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm. I actually can easily envision him being better than Poni.
At age 23 Poni had 28 points in 73 games. Poni has since had years of 61 and 50 points.
At age 23 Kulemin had 36 points in 78 games.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 28, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
poni played with Sundin on the first line
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
In Poni’s best year, Sundin was retired.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 28, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
point, yeah, that year was weird
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess the counterpoint is it took Poni until he was like 27 or 28 to do it.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 28, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Should we pay Kulemin for one excellent month of service? I mean, besides March, when has the guy ever led you to believe he could be a top 6 forward? When’s the last time Marc Savard wasn’t a top 6 forward?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
yup, I mean I love Kulie, he is one of my current favourite players in the NHL, but there is no way in hell I would sign him for more than 2.5
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
2.5 is the agreed upon max.
Decision made.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
ill go as high as 2.75 if he goes long term
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
2.75?
5 years – we get 1 year of his UFA eligibility
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
3 years, 2.5
4-5 years 2.75
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Late to the party…in addition to teams having limited walk-away arbitration rights there’s another wrinkle if Mitchell files for arbitration, he’s no longer eligible to be offer-sheeted by another team.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Good point
An offer sheet at over the 1st rd pick threshold is probably a dream scenario for Burke.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 28, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Counter-point:
He’s not eligible for offer sheets now, is he? He’s UFA?
by The '67 Sound on Jun 28, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Correct. No QO=UFA.
I wonder if Leafs still own his negotiating rights until July 1?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Yea we do, he’s basically like any other UFA.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 28, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
So we have two days to negotiate.
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Uh that’s right.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 28, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Strange. For the longest time I have been under the impression that Kulemin had some great success playing on Evgeni Malkin’s wing in the KHL.
Turns out it isn’t true
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
,
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t where I heard that from. But Kulemin only played 31 games ever with Malkin in the KHL
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
ah, hmm, this is also news to me
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Malkin’s last season in Russia was 05-06. He scored 47 points in 46 games. That was Kulemin’s first season in the KHL and he scored 12 points in 31 games. The next year Malkin was in Pittsburgh and Kulemin scored 39 points in 54 games.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=95387
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=77329
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
In fact...
Nik Kulemin has never scored 40 points in a season ever, at least not professionally.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
didnt he lead the league in scoring or something?
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t lead the league though. He was up there. Finished tied for 3rd.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
everything I know is a lie
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually in the RSL
they add playoff goals to regular season… in 67 total games (including 13 playoff games) he scored 36 goals which led the entire league.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Morozov
only had 2 playoff goals after scoring 34 in the regular season, so he only ended up with 36. Metallurg Magnitogorosk (Kulemin’s team) won the league championship that season largely on the strength of his 9 playoff goals in 13 playoff games.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's the thing about the RSL
In a 54 game season, the top scoring team in the league scored 214 times, but the league average offense would be 140 goals for. That’s a league that’s seeing 2.6 goals scored by each team on average per game… the NHL is a league where teams score on average 2.77 goals per game.
The RSL is a less offensive league than the NHL, and Kulemin was scoring 37 goals in 67games?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry 36 goals.
Either way… that’s a productive season.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
He had great success
playing in the KHL… without Malkin as his centre.
His success came after Malkin had gone to the NHL.
He led the RSL in goal scoring playing on the wing with two Czechs, Jan Marek and Jaroslav Kurdna. That occurred the season after Malkin jumped to Pittsburgh.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Love this image, so useful.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 28, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone said this above, I’m repeating it cause it didn’t generate much talk.
I think this may that “square dealing with the players” stuff BB talks about. He wants the organization to have a good reputation amongst the players, and that may mean letting a lower caliber asset life JFM walk instead of taking him to arbitration. He WAIVED BRYZGALOV INTENTIONALLY just to give the guy a place to play.
The question is, in the big picture does this help the team or hurt it? I for one think it may actually give the team a good enough reputation so as to make players want to come here. Look ate the Ottawa / Heatley mess. If it was some Sens office guy who leaked all that trade info, it probably drags down the Sens as a desired destination.
He let Bryzgalov walk for free in a year where the Leafs paid a 1st, 2nd and 4th for Toskala and a salary dump.
What a genius plan.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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JFJ
That is all.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Burke is too dumb to fleece JFJ?
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Depends, which pizza place is JFJ the delivery boy for?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Also
JFJ seemed like the kind of guy who swung for the fences – he was all about the flavour of the month. He was buying high.
He had no interest in Bryzgalov (just proving how inept he was at judging professional talent.)
I doubt JFJ would have traded a 7th round pick for Bryzgalov – not high profile enough.
Sickening.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I really think that Burke has swung for the fences as well – we just have yet to see if he falls short. He’s gambled BIG time on the Phaneuf and Kessel deals, not to mention this team’s cap flexibility going forward.
"Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?"
Yea I never understood why no-one would trade for Bryz. Or do I misunderstand the story and no trade was attempted?
Still, If for whatever reason he goes FA, don’t you think Bryzalov will at least have a talk with Brian Burke?
(Note: I DO NOT believe that Bobby Ryan will demand to be sent to the Leafs because BB is the Yoda to his Luke. But I still think a reputation for square dealing can be very helpful to a team.)
a year after the Leafs traded Rask for a goalie who had worse numbers than most of the UFA goalie pool
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
…that may mean letting a lower caliber asset life JFM walk instead of taking him to arbitration
Um, you’ve got that backwards. The concern is Mitchell would file for arbitration and the Leafs would be on the hook for a big payout (or would have to exercise their walk-away rights). The Leafs would never take Mitchell to arbitration, wouldn’t make sense of a whole pile o’ reasons.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I actually understand the situation, but I totally WROTE that wrong. What I meant was:
BB We are only willing to give you X contract. If arbitration awards you more, we still are not going to change our offer. So if you don’t like this offer, lets not bother with arbitration. Go out there to get the contract you are looking for, best of luck. If you are unsuccessful, our offer still stands.
JFM Thats is @&!!$%*& fair. Thanks
Really??
All this for John Mitchell?
The guy sucks man. He was given opportunities in all kinds of roles and he did nothing that wasn’t absolutely ordinary. He doesn’t hit very well, pass very well or score very well. In fact he might just be the most utterly vanilla hockey player we’ve had in years other than Wallin!
1. It’s bigger than just about Mitchell
2. He doesn’t suck.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Yeah, it’s about asset management theory and what this one decision says about how future decisions are likely to be made.
Thanks to McGran’s reporting, I’m now pretty happy about what this says about Burke: bargaining hard where we have leverage and saving every penny against the cap.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 28, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He sucks in the context that he won’t have a high level of productive minutes.
Use him 10 mins a game max, he can be effective – maybe.
Still hate that stupid ugly baby, but it is tempered by the fact he (hopefully) won’t be put in situations where we depend on him for something important.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 28, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
He sucks
Because in part keeping him around takes away ice time from a player who has heart and grit. Mitchell is never going to crack the top 6 on a good team and the bottom six are role players.
Mitchell is living in the twilight zone of hockey players. He’s Jamie Lundmark only with a fatter face!
If we can sign him for $750K or less who is going to be better and/or cheaper in the bottom 6?
20-25 points out of a bottom 6 guy isn’t bad.
by The '67 Sound on Jun 28, 2010 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Muppet Mitchell is admittedly a middling player, one I’ve certainly cursed out on a number of occasions.
That said, can you name one player Mitchell is taking minutes away from?
Can you name one player, available to the Leafs, that can put up similar numbers for $600K/year?
We talk and talk (and talk) about the need for players to outperform their contract and for ways to find cap savings – Mitchell is a good example of both.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
i don’t think he’s outperforming his contract in any significant way.
and if burke can sign him for $600K, i’d like to think he will. but i think he’d rather risk losing mitchell and having to replace him, than having to potentially pay $800 or $900K because of arbitration.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
He is in terms of points and minutes played all around
He was the 2nd most valuable in the NHL last year on a TOI vs. dollar paid perspective after Rich Peverley…
although that begs the question of why he’s playing such large minutes.
His point production was top 30 for point per dollar paid… he’s outperforming his contract according to capgeek.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
point per $ paid is a flawed measure. a guy earning $500K and scoring 10 points is more valuable on that basis than a guy scoring 130 points at $7M.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
And why is that flawed in a cap system?
The whole structure should be dollar per production… GVT makes more sense… but goals are pretty effing relevant.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
law of decreasing returns is important
but considering we’re talking the bottom end of the scale here I’d say getting as much as you can out of a $500 K a year player is pretty important in the long run.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, but if Mitchell signs for 1 million his point production per dollar paid drops dramatically. Whereas before he was underpaid, now he is overpaid.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Depends on both his production
and his pay rate.
I totally agree on that though, he’s not worth anything over $1 million… at all.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
ok so he was 23rd last year
in cost per point at $21,196.
If he was making $1 million next year and produced 35 points… that’s $28,571 which would have ranked him in the top 50 forwards in the NHL… still pretty decent.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
now let’s assume he scores 30 points, which is what he was projected to score of 82 games last season. Thats now 33.3K per point. Where does that rank him?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
66th
between Todd Bertuzzi and Nick Foligno last year.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
for what it’s worth, it’s pretty hilarious that you said the champagne situation "wasn’t worth discussing’, yet you’ve done a thorough analysis of JFM not being tendered a QO.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
Hey I covered that one above
NHL player vs. prospect who hasn’t even played in the AHL yet… different places in my mind I guess.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I suppose
hey a broken clock is right twice a day or something…
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
i disagree. it’s important, but paying a guy $8M and getting 120 pts out of him will ultimately do more for your team than having a $500K guy getting 15 pts.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
Having as many of those guys as possible
would do a lot in terms of allowing you to have MORE of those 120 points guys wouldn’t it?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
So shouldn’t the focus be trying to find players who can score 25 points at 500K?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
I think the idea is
a combination of both.
You want your top 3 to be those guys that get $4 mill plus who get you 70+ points, then your next 3 to be guys making $2.5 – $4 mill who get you 50 – 70 points, then the next 3 would ideally be making $1-$2.5 mill and scoring you 25-50 points, and the bottom 3 will be making $500K – $1 mill and doing the dirty crap and not scoring much at all.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn’t that mean Kulemin would be in your 1 – 2.5 million range?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Not based on where I think he projects to... no
He should end up on the 2nd line after his 4th NHL season.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
But right now
I’d give him the contract of a tweener… next year I’d pay him $2.4, then the year after $2.7, then the year after $3.2… that works out to a $2.76 mill cap hit… and by the 3rd year he should be hitting the 50+ point plateau.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
So, if you projected someone like Kadri to be a 70+ point player after his 4th year, you’d give him a contract over 5 million?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
In his 4th year?
Not if I don’t have to… but if he’s in range of that production and I think he’s going to earn it? Why not?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't that exactly
what happened with Mike Richards and Jeff Carter? Nobody is really arguing that they’re failures on the contract front are they?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Getzlaf
Corey Perry… Bobby Ryan… Phil Kessel… etc.
I’m not seeing a huge issue with that logic… are you?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
phil Kessel
after his 3rd season in the NHL had yet to crack 60 points in a season… still hasn’t after last year, and we’re paying him a $5.4 mill a year cap hit for the next 4 years… I don’t see a lot of complaints from Leaf fans about the dollar price so much as the trade that was made to get him.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
and for the record
over the last 2 seasons that’s exactly where he’s been. He was a $1,487,500 cap hit… right in the middle of that range.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
and what has he shown to move out of that range, exactly?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
The stretch where he played top line minutes
and produced points at a top line pace?
Did you not WATCH him play any games with Kessel and Bozak last season? He was productive in virtually every single one.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
you mean, that one month out of the year? So one month in two seasons is enough to double his contract?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Ummm
yes?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not like he had 8 months
with Bozak and Kessel and only 1 of them was productive… which is what you’re making it sound like.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn’t it occur to you that maybe the only reason he put up those numbers in March was because he had a hot month player with two players much better than him?
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
No
because I’ve been watching him since he was 18 and I think he projects to a 2nd line winger in the NHL with the potential to fill in as a 1st liner when needed?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
He didn't look out of place
playing alongside Ovechkin and Malkin… why would I suddenly find him incapable of suiting up alongside Kessel and Bozak?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
even if he's the least
offensively skilled player of the trio, he can still be a productive player in other ways.
and I don’t think he IS necessarily the least offensively skilled, I just think he’s the most defensively oriented of the bunch… so he doesn’t think offense first as much as the others.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Part of what he does is allow
those players to put up the points they do.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok if you look at his scoring log
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kulemni01/scoring/2010/
You’ll see that he, Bozak, and Kessel, combined on 14 goals… 14 of his 36 points came with one of those two players.
13 of Bozak’s 27 points came with the involvement of Kulemin, while 20 of them involved Kessel… the only other player to have close to that involvement in Bozak’s production was welll…. nobody significant. Stalberg scored 3 goals at the end of the year assisted by Bozak… that isn’t 13 points.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree. I think he is far and away the least offensively skilled player of the three and had a good month playing alongside two much better offensive players.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Feel free to think that
I don’t think it’s based on much… but you think what you like.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll be more than happy to admit I was wrong if Kulemin turns into a 55 -60 point player. I just don’t think he will, based on what I’ve seen from him.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
I still don't know what you
aren’t seeing…
the guy can skate… he hits… he is a slick stick handler… he can pass well… he uses his body in the corners remarkably well… and he’s solid defensively… he doesn’t take a lot of penalties… and he draws a tonne of them… and he totally grew into a more offensive role after the trading deadline…
I have NO idea what player you were watching.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Kulemin can create limited offense on his own. He is a good skater, but not terribly fast. He’s an average stick handler, and not good in tight spaces.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
He created more offense on his own
than Bozak did… so that’s a non starter in this argument.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
and your comment
about being good in tight spaces is ridiculous since he’s currently the best corner/board player the Leafs have… he also scored more goals in the shootout than most of the Leafs.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
prove it.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
lol
prove any of your assertions and I’ll prove mine. Good luck with it.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
As for the shootouts?
Last year Kulemin led the Leafs in shoot out goals with 3… tied with Kessel… only he did his on 4 opportunities, Kessel had 7. Kulemin was the best shoot out performer the Leafs had. Look for yourself:
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s my point. I’m at least trying to stick to something that is statistically debatable. Saying a guys works hard in the corners is hardly that.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
These
He is a good skater, but not terribly fast. He’s an average stick handler, and not good in tight spaces.
are a bit hard to verify… but guess what… we can at least assess the first one.
He completed the fastest skater comp in feb of 2009 in 14.128 seconds… John Mitchell won the thing with a time of 13.864… His number was below that of Jamal Mayers who was regularly touted as a fast skater.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok so
why is Bozak so much more obviously skilled than Kulemin? He only registered 27 points last year, and most of that production came with Kessel and Kulemin on his line… without those two his production wasn’t ridiculously good.
Aside from thinking he did well with Kessel… which was obvious… what leads you to that conclusion?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Bozak production without Kessel or Kulemin
4 points. That’s it.
I guess he’s the straw stirring the drink?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
On the other hand
Kulemin’s production without Bozak or Kessel:
18 points out of his 36… yeah he’s so tied to those two it’s RIDICULOUS!
Kessel without the other two: 34 points out of his 50.
So let’s see… of those 3 players, I’d have to say Bozak was carried by the other 2… not Kulemin being carried by Bozak and Kessel… sorry.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Nik Kulemin spends 2 years not creating any offense with other linemates, and then suddenly starts creating offense with the Leafs two best offensive players. Makes SO much sense
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
again
you’re ignoring what I’m saying about Bozak… why is he the 2nd best offensive player on the team in your mind?
You’re basing it on 2 months of play… and half of that came WITH KULEMIN AND KESSEL… HALF his points were scored alongside Kulemin… 2/3rds were scored with KEssel… without them he scores 4 points…
and somehow he’s number 2 in your eyes?
Seriously… address what I’m saying.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
You can't say Kulemin sucks
because he only scores for 1 month on one side, and then on the other say that Bozak is the 2nd best offensive player on the team because he scored 27 points in a 37 game stretch.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think [Kulemin] is far and away the least offensively skilled player of the three…
Why is he the 2nd best offensive player on the team in your mind?
birky just said that Bozak was the second best offensive player on the line.
Birky feels this because Kulemin’s production alongside Bozak and Kessel is significantly out of pace with his production without Bozak and Kessel.
Also, just a totally irrelevant note, but Steve, could you refrain from replying to yourself 4 or 5 times in a row when posts could be combined? I hate getting into these tiny little side columns =\
by Bower Power on Jun 28, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah fair enough
I’ll work on it… I could also just do the following
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Rookie adjusting to North American game, North American rinks, North American culture, North American schedules.
Sacrifices some offence while learning how to be defensively responsible in the NHL
Spends much of his rookie season playing with another rookie and a veteran, and both are extremely streaky scorers.
Are you suggesting that NONE of these completely legitimate factors might come into play to explain why Kulemin took until the end of his second NHL season to find his offensive game?
Resident Capologist
Well said.
Kulemin watches Treehouse. Dude isn’t Russian anymore. No excuses.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
We’ve discussed this before. Kulemin was getting comparable playing time in December and January to Blake, Hagman, etc. He was not producing at half of his March pace, nor has he ever in his career. Surely, it is possible that Kulemin might have put up better numbers with other players, but that is purely hypothetical. The fact is that he never did, even though Ron Wilson is notorious for shuffling lines and Kulemin did in fact play large chunks of last season and this season with 2nd and first line players, outside the month of march.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
WITH WHO?
Stempniak and Wayne Primeau… WAYNE PRIMEAU IS A FREAKING PYLON… seriously… how are you ignoring that?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
He just finished his 2nd NHL season
Do you know how many guys put up 36 points in their 2nd season?
Travis Zajac (34 points) LOSER!
David Backes (31 points) LOSER!
Loui Eriksson (31 points) LOSER!
Jason Pominville (30 points) LOSER!
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Guys who put up more than Kulemin in year 2. And i'm just going down through teams alphabetically
B. Sutter, T, Brouer, C. Stewart, J. Voracek.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
in the same ice time?
playing with the same players? look at their PP time.
Voracek played 195:44 on the PP, Brouwer played 163:15, Chris Stewart played 200:05, and Brendan Sutter played 138:51… Kulemin was playing 127:07… that’s an indication of his offensive ice time.
I would also point out that 3 of those players were 1st round draft picks playing large roles on more competitive teams… and the other one was playing on a Stanley Cup winner with Kane, Toews, Sharp, and Hossa… that kind of helps.
If you look at their most common linemates you find the following:
Voracek – 25% of his shifts with Derrick Brassard and RJ Umberger
Sutter – 11% with Erik Cole and Ray Whitney, 5.5% with Whitney and Tuomo Ruutu
Brouwer – 26% of his shifts with Kane and Toews
Stewart – 23% of his shifts with Wojtek Wolski and Paul Stastny, 20% more with Stastny and TJ Gagliardi.
NOT EQUIVALENT COMPARISONS SORRY.
Btw… Brouwer only got 40 points and Sutter only had 40 points… is a 4 point improvement really that drastic when playing with Kane, Toews, Ruutu, Cole, and Whitney instead of Kessel and Bozak? BOZAK THE ROOKIE?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Kulemin played extensively with Grabovski, Poni, and Hagman in 08-09. This year he played mostly with Grabovski, Poni, and Stempniak.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Not true
you’re right about Grabovski, Hagman, and Ponikarovsky in year 1, but this past year he played predominantly with Kessel and Bozak (22% of his shifts)… his number 2 combo was Primeau and Stempniak (13% of his shifts)… after that it’s a mishmash.. but it wasn’t mainly Grabovski and Poni…
In fact Grabo and Poni don’t show up until his 5th most common line (5% of his shifts)… that’s less than half of his shifts with the aforementioned group.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Bozak played 37 games, mostly with Kulemin and Kessel. Kulemin has played, what 150+ games in two years? And had one good month while playing with Bozak and Kessel.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
hardly comparable
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
no shit
or justifiable on your side… I’m projecting a player… so are you… but in your case it’s acceptable why?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
oh right
because Bozak isn’t negotiating a contract.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, I wouldn’t give Bozak 3 million a season either.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
No
but he is the 2nd best offensive player on the Leafs… lol.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
a team that finished 29th in the NHL.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
with the worst goaltender
in the modern era.
Did you notice that they had a winning record once Kulemin was playing on the top line? I did.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Ironically
the Leafs are paying him $3.725 million next year… so he’d BETTER be productive.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
HAHAHA
that’s funny.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
damn, then why didnt we tender JS aubin to a 4 mil deal after that crazy end of the year run?
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
what a mistake that was. think of how much would have been different if we had our goaltending situation locked down with JSA.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
you know he was good because he had a hairy neck
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say anything about
goalies…
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Goalies are generally
overpaid ridiculously.
I’m fine with the Gustavsson and Rynnas deals as is.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Words to live by.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 28, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel like I’ve read this somewhere before…
Because some player nicknames just make sense.
by Sergei Puckizin on Jun 29, 2010 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, but if you are paying one guy 8 mill, the support guys making 500k and being productive get all the more valuable in a cap world
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
i totally agree that they’re important. i just think the point per $ paid metric is goofy…. it automatically puts your highest paid and (hopefully) best players at a disadvantage, when really they’re the most important part of the team.
it’d be more meaningful if we had categories, like "point per $ paid, salary $500K – $1.5M’, etc.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
So bracketing?
Yeah I’m in favour of that… so lets work out some basis beyond just the dollar per point… a scoring system if you will.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
We could look at
$ per point amongst players who scored over 70 points…
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
btw
the worst value players by that measure are by far enforcers… your worst value guys on the point basis are in order: Brashear, Koci, May, Hordichuk, Belak
Then you get a lot of grinders: Pisani, Walker, Modin, Pandolfo, Godard, Sheppard… before you finally hit guys making a crapload… Chris Drury come on down!
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
i think brackets based on points as well as salary would be interesting, and would better gauge players value vs their contract.
$500K-$1.5M
$1.5M-$3M
$3m-$5M
$5M+
0-30 pts
30-50 pts
50-80 pts
80 pts+
i certainly don’t have the energy to pull together a list like that, but i’d be interested in what it looks like.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
Or you could keep it continuous and just but some kind of exponential weight on it… so that going from 10 to 20 points is worth less than going from 50 to 60 points.
I was never much of a modeller, but it could go something like:
(points)^x/pay
where x is something like 1.2 or 1.5 or something. You would want to do some empirical mucking about to come up with a good weight… but I’m not sure what outcome measure you would test this against to know that you had the right answer.
If I'm going exponential with cost/point
I need the data to back up that trend line… I don’t have all the data for the NHL, but I will in a few minutes.
We’ll see if logarithmic makes sense. Bear with me.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 29, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok using the data
for NHL forwards that played 30+ games last year we have the following result… the R^2 value indicates a closer correlation for linear than a logarithmic relation, but if I use a 6th order polynomial the R^2 is even higher… so I’ll go with that for the moment.
If Kulemin gets a cap hit of $2.5 mill next season, the equation would give an expected point production of 46 points.
If he has a cap hit of $2.75 mill next season, the equation would give an expected point production of 48 points.
If he has a cap hit of $3.0 mill next year, the equation would give an expected point production of 51 points.
Basically here are the brackets as far as I can work them out for point production vs. cost:
$500K – $1 mill = 14 to 28 points
$1 mill – $2 mill = 28 to 41 points
$2 mill – $3 mill = 41 to 51 points
$3 mill – $3.5 mill = 51 to 59 points
$3.5 mill – $4 mill = 59 to 70 points
$4 mill to $4.5 mill = 70 to 84 points
$4.5 to $5 mill = 84 to 103 points
So basically if you’re paying much over a $5 million cap hit to anyone you’ve gone pretty far outside the ideal range and you’re losing cost effectiveness.
This would be why I’d avoid Kovalchuk… as his cap hit gets up towards $7 million.
Basically anyone making up to $3.5 mill is doing alright if they’re producing around 50 points a season. If you can get 60 points out of them at that price point, then you’re doing amazingly well.
Above the $3.5 mill range, you’re getting into the elite offensive forward categories, and some guys are bargains, while others aren’t.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 29, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Fanpost it.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 29, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
shouldn’t these brackets be in relation to the total cap size though? I mean, by these brackets you could have 6 100 point players only taking up half the salary cap. Hypothetically, the Stanley Cup winner could ice a team with more than 10 million in cap space.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
I would break the entire NHL down into brackets by points first (7 90pt+ players, 15 75-89 pt players, 33 60-75 pt players, etc, etc) Then take those brackets and figure out the recommended cap hit in relation to the salary cap ceiling. Maybe? who knows.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
i suspect burke is trying to save every penny he can to try to pay for guys like Savard and Kovy? if they qualify mitchell, and it goes to arbirtration, it’s less in their control. let him walk if he wants, and find some other scrub to pay league min to put up 15 points on the 4th line.
whatever the reason – if the success of this team hinges on john f mitchell, then we’re f’d.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
How about Eklund's latest:
Kaberle to San Jose for Devin Setoguchi and Niclas Wallin?
Daddy likey!
I guess since they lost Campbell
and Blake… they need offense from the back end?… I’d take that… without the Wallin contract.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Setoguchi + draft pick please
That’d be ok… plus Eklund need not be mentioned.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Wallin just signed a new deal at 2.5 million per year with a full NTC
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Eklund knows that NTCs mean nothing….
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
wallin maked 2.5 and they just signed him
he also kinda sucks
but setoguchi…..
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
had 65 points playing with Marleau and Thornton, and then came back to earth scoring 36 points on the second line. Not worth Kaberle.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
not alone no
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
In only 70 games
and he had 9 points in 15 playoff games on the Clowe, Pavelski line which was pretty damn effective.
The kid is only 23 and he put up 31 goals in his 2nd NHL season (first full one). I’d say considering he was an 8th overall draft choice, and he’s scored 62 goals in 195 NHL games, I’m not that worried about him being a bust. 26 goals on average before the age of 24 for an 8th overall pick really isn’t that bad.
He’s further along than any of our other “prospects” (note I use that term loosely since some seem to include Kulemin on that list).
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's another comparison
In Kessel’s first 195 games he scored 54 goals… playing with one of the “top 5 passers” in the NHL recently (Marc Savard)… last I checked we were pretty effing impressed with him last year.
I’d take Setoguchi no problem.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh and as for Setoguchi last year
of those 36 points… 20 of them were goals. He scored 0.29 gpg, which would have ranked him right alongside pre-trade Matt Stajan… nobody was complaining about his goal scoring at the time.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You know who else had a great season playing next to Joe Thornton? Jonathan Cheechoo.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
then his knee exploded and he lost his speed which was arguably his best weapon to get to open areas
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Cheechoo's speed
was never his best asset… he had a wonky stride from the get go… looked like he was riding a horse all bowlegged and shit… but yeah the Knee injury ruined what little ability he had to get to the hole.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
frankly I never watched much sharks hockey back when Cheech was on his tear, I’m just going from what I’ve read sharks fans say
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 28, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
That's part of the problem
consider the source?
j.k.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t they JUST re-sign Wallin? Like, less than 48 hours ago?
Is it just me, or all of a sudden are these GMs acting like they’re playing NHL 10 with their asset and cap management?
“Spezza’s great! Let’s give him $4M in a bonus! / Spezza sucks. Get rid of his boat anchor contract!”
Marc Savard is a great playmaker! Even though we dealt our top sniper, let’s lock him up till he retires. / He’s old an he’s broken. Get him out of here so we can make that 3rd draft pick we got for Kessel worse!"
“Wallin’s a useful guy on the 3rd pairing. Let’s re-sign him! / We can use him to get Kaberle! Boyle and Kaberle on the same blueline! We’ll be unstoppable!”
Reporters are getting stupider and stupider because they aren’t picking up this stuff that doesn’t pass the smell test, and GMs are acting fucking schizophrenic.
Resident Capologist
And move the convo down here
apologies.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
What was funny?
Bozak is making $3.725 mill next year, including bonuses… and since the CBA expires that’s included in his cap hit.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
who cares what his base salary is
if they don’t extend the CBA his bonus is included… he costs $3.725 mill right now.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
no, he doesn’t. They already extended the CBA last week, and the bonus cushion is in effect. SO his salary is 875K that can ballon up to over 3 million
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Ah ok
see this is what I get for being out of the loop due to my wedding… apologies for my ignorance.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
See? The lesson here is: never get married again!
by Bower Power on Jun 28, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Alright so the Bozak contract is fine...
but I’m still not sure why we’re so sure he’s number 2 offensively on the Leafs after a 37 game stint in the NHL if we can’t conclude anything based on Kulemin’s time on the top line with Bozak and Kessel.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
In addition to what was said above about the rookie adjustments by aiken
I’d like to point out that the vast majority of NHL players have their breakout seasons in their 4th full NHL season… the Sedins for instance didn’t hit the 50 point plateau until their 4th season.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Kulemin is entering year 3...
I don’t see why this is such a huge leap in production expectations.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
You talked about Champagne being an unknown because you’d never seen him play. The same was true (I presume) for Bozak.
TyBo was a strong scorer in every other league he played in before the N. He consistently put up good points during his time in the NHL. Kulemin did alright during the opener of the season, on pace for 31 points on the full season before Phaneuf Trade Day. He ended up with 36. So either Kulemin happened to have an upswing in play starting the same time when Bozak got called up, or Kulemin is not individually responsible for the increased point production.
Which one of those seem more likely?
I really like Kulemin, I really do. But he’s a good second liner more than he’s a solid first liner.
by Bower Power on Jun 28, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm willing to agree Bozak
put up good numbers… but are you seriously arguing the competition in the BCJHL and the NCAA is equivalent to the AHL/NHL or RSL?
Kulemin is a more developed player all around…and he’s produced more points and played far more NHL games than Bozak… and he’s YOUNGER… and BIGGER… and less injury prone…
I’m not going to argue that Bozak is the catalyst here… I’d say Kessel is… for both of them. Guess what, they BOTH produced with Kessel.. and neither one did as much without him. Let’s face it… KESSEL was the key piece on that line… and the whole team last year… they worked well as a unit.
I’m not trying to bash Bozak here, but I find it ridiculous that he’s called the 2nd most offensively skilled player on the team and that Kulemin gets treated like an incompetent stone handed grinder… there’s more evidence of Kulemin’s offensive skill at a HIGHER level than Bozak’s… sorry.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Also...
since when is 20 points in 32 AHL games good numbers? Stalberg and Hanson both did far better… nobody is calling them the 2nd best offensive player on the Leafs.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
If we could perform a thought experiment
I’d argue that we should put Bozak on a line with Grabovski and Stempniak for a season and see what happens, and leave Kulemin with Kessel and see who puts up more points…
I bet Kulemin would come out ahead.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry
that should have read Primeau and Stempniak… not Grabovski
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
CBA was extended, iirc. It’s not included in the cap hit.
by Bower Power on Jun 28, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
when was the CBA extended?
The announced the increase in the cap … I don’t recall them extending the CBA.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
No big deal. Also, isn’t most of Bozaks’ 3.275 in bonuses? If he wins the Conn Smythe, etc?
by Bower Power on Jun 28, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
THe issue is the cap hit
I know his base salary is low.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Bozak
As Bower stated above, my issue with Kulemin is that he has done next to nothing outside of playing with Bozak and Kessel. I don’t feel it’s comparable to Bozak’s situation because there is no history of Bozak playing with anyone but Kulemin and Kessel. So if we’re basing player evaluation on what we’ve seen of Bozak in limited time, then yes, I still think he’s the better player.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
I would argue that he has
you’re ignoring his production in the RSL, or the way he has played in the Juniors… I just think that’s sort of ridiculous when assessing a young player.
You need to look at where he is with respect to his peers… not every player in the NHL.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
he just finished playing a productive role with the RUssian national team at the World Championships and a pre-tourney in Sweden where he lined up alongside the likes of Kozlov, Fedorov, Afinogenov, etc. I don’t see how you can argue that he can’t keep up with that level of player when he has done so consistently every time he’s played alongside that talent level.
It’s like a huge amount of cognitive dissonance is screwing with your mind man… let it go already.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
In 06-07, Bozak led the BCHL in scoring with 128 points, which was higher than first round pick Kyle Turris.. The following year, as an NCAA freshman, he led the U. of Denver in scoring.
Bozak’s put up impressive numbers wherever he’s played.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
He was also 4 years older
than Kyle Turris… so that’s kinda misleading.
Also… Kulemin played at a world juniors alongside OVECHKIN AND CROSBY… Bozak has never played at the national level… anywhere.
Kulemin was a 2nd round draft pick… legitimately… Bozak.. undrafted.
discuss.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Kulemin scores 37 goals in 63 games in the MENS Russian Super League (precursor to the KHL) more than any other player in the league… as a 20-21 year old… Bozak has one good year in the NCAA at the University of Denver… doesn’t lead the NCAA in scoring.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
BCHL is not as strong a league than the old RSL. It’s not even close.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
No, i’ll admit its not. But a lot of good talent has come out of there. I never said Bozak had a better pre-NHL career than Kulemin (hence being an undrafted free agent). But he’s certainly no slouch
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Oh, I'm excited for Bozak as well
In any case, we’re taking this rather too literal and serious. I’m trying to take a step back in debating every minutia of the Leafs in the new year just because of how pointless it gets at the end. If I ever take any Leafs news too seriously again, you can accuse me of being a Bryan McCabe fanboy.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
I agree that I'm going into ridiculous detail here
but I’d like people to be a bit more balanced in their assessments of players.
It’s like people pick race horses and that horse can do no wrong, and everything the other players do is meaningless… for lord knows what reason.
In terms of skill level, ability, and projected development, Kulemin is probably the 2nd or 3rd most valuable and NHL ready asset the Leafs have after Kessel and Kadri… Bozak is below those 3… I don’t really see a huge argument that could convince me otherwise.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to break your soliloquy here
But I agree that there are lines drawn across the sand that are far too hyperbole and hypocritical. However, I think we’re all guilty of taking things too far and trying to convince each other different points of view when clearly neither side is moving an inch. At that point, not to say one has to give up and never debate again, but a compromise has to be found.
So, someone doesn’t agree with me. Fine. i’ll present my arguments and be done with it. I won’t go into too much detail or break down too much of someone else’s points because either they’re too minute or useless. If they’re not willing to acknowledge or rebut my points, there really isn’t much of a point continuing. I just move on to another debate or just browse elsewhere for the time being.
I think there’s an unhealthy level of frustration when one spends too much time here going over similar points over and over again without a resolution. I’ve been getting better at determining, “enough is enough” lately. I still forget sometimes, but hopefully, I’m able to calm down and complain about Dion Phaneuf’s hairstyle by then.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
Just to repeat what I put above... to illustrate how unreasonable a comparison that was on your part.
playing with the same players? look at their PP time.
Voracek played 195:44 on the PP, Brouwer played 163:15, Chris Stewart played 200:05, and Brendan Sutter played 138:51… Kulemin was playing 127:07… that’s an indication of his offensive ice time.
I would also point out that 3 of those players were 1st round draft picks playing large roles on more competitive teams… and the other one was playing on a Stanley Cup winner with Kane, Toews, Sharp, and Hossa… that kind of helps.
If you look at their most common linemates you find the following:
Voracek – 25% of his shifts with Derrick Brassard and RJ Umberger
Sutter – 11% with Erik Cole and Ray Whitney, 5.5% with Whitney and Tuomo Ruutu
Brouwer – 26% of his shifts with Kane and Toews
Stewart – 23% of his shifts with Wojtek Wolski and Paul Stastny, 20% more with Stastny and TJ Gagliardi.
NOT EQUIVALENT COMPARISONS SORRY.
Btw… Brouwer only got 40 points and Sutter only had 40 points… is a 4 point improvement really that drastic when playing with Kane, Toews, Ruutu, Cole, and Whitney instead of Kessel and Bozak? BOZAK THE ROOKIE?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
or Wayne Primeau
the pylon?
Like seriously… context means a lot in this debate, and I think it’s absurd to argue that Kulemin is incompetent because he didn’t produce alongside a snake bitten Stempniak and Primeau… he didn’t play with Hagman and Stajan and Grabovski and Ponikarovsky much early on in the year because they were being showcased while he was working on his defensive game…
Then he finally gets a shot post trade deadline and he lights it up… and you just throw your hands up and say “wow how LUCKY is this guy… why can’t he do this playing with Wayne Primeau???? Obviously he has stone hands and the puck bounces in off his ass consistently!”
Meanwhile Bozak plays with Kessel from day 1 and puts up points, but only gets 4 points without him or Kulemin and you’re all ready to trot out his ONE good season at the U of Denver before he blew out his knee in year two and the fact that he out scored 1st round draft pick Kyle Turris on their BCJHL team when he was 4 years older and he still didn’t get drafted? SERIOUSLY???
WTF does Kulemin have to do to impress you?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
more of what?
I just find it bizarre that you refuse to project his improvement at all… it’s like you’re stuck on the idea that he’ll never improve on 36 points a year… despite every evidence to the contrary.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think birky just doesn’t want to pay for potential. You’re talking a difference in philosophy here, not the specifics of Kaberle.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 29, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
My issue with it is
We’re bashing Kulemin’s contribution last year and one of the factors being thrown out as a meaningful reason for HIS improvement is a player with less NHL game time, less NHL production, and less pedigree… somehow the lesser light player is the REASON for the Russian prospect’s improvement… I find that whole idea preposterous.
I have no problem with the idea that Kessel made Bozak and Kulemin more productive… but it stops there… Kulemin was more productive without Bozak than vice versa… so saying Bozak is superior is inane at best.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 29, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Over the 30 game stretch
from January 12th to March 28th, Kessel recorded 16 goals and 31 points, while Kulemin scored 9 goals and 21 points. Bozak produced 8 goals and 23 points.
Oddly, of Kulemin’s goals and points, he produced 5 of the 9 goals, and 2 of his 12 assists without ANY assistance from Bozak or Kessel… that’s 1/3rd of his point total.
All of Bozak’s production involved one of either Kulemin or Kessel… ALL 23 points. In fact Kessel wasn’t involved in 3 of those points, where Kulemin was.
Kessel similarly produced 10 of his 31 points without input from Bozak or Kulemin (again 1/3rd of his production over that stretch).
So yeah… to me it looks far more like Bozak is dependent on Kulemin and Kessel thank Kulemin is on Bozak and Kessel or Kessel is on Bozak and Kulemin.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 29, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
none of what you said relates to the debate as to whether or not you should pay for potential
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jun 29, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
No
I lost the plot a bit and went after Birky over the whole Bozak made Kulemin better and thus we can’t count on his future production thing.
I think it’s absurd to argue that Bozak is superior to Kulemin on the basis of his 37 game NHL experience… and yet people seem prepared to do that to minimize the efforts of Kulemin last year.
I think the potential is there, and I’ve delineated how I think he should be paid. He deserves an increasing pay rate over 3 or 4 years… I think the cap hit should be around $2.75 mill a year… we’ll see what happens, but I think it’s justifiable.
Writing a posting on player production vs. cost right now actually.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 29, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
The way I look at it
the Leafs saw enough in him to put him on the top line… the Russian National team saw enough to name him to their World Championship roster… which is frankly NOT a minor thing to them… and he will continue to develop… players with his skill set don’t typically stagnate at this stage of their development.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I sincerely think
that Bozak’s development trajectory is less of a certainty than Kulemin’s. Bozak will likely develop into a productive NHLer but his size is a serious problem.
If he can’t put on enough weight to last a full NHL season in good health, his knee and other minor injuries may plague his career.
Kulemin doesn’t look to be a risk in that regard, and he WILL produce more offensively.
Arguing that Bozak is the number 2 guy at this point just strikes me as RIDICULOUS in the same argument where you’re saying Kulemin hasn’t done anything to impress you.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Number of games
Bozak has played in the past 2 years: 19 NCAA games, 32 AHL Games, 37 NHL games – total of 88 hockey games in 2 seasons.
Kulemin in the past 2 years: 5 AHL games, 151 NHL games, 12 World/Euro tournament games for the Russian National Team – total of 168 games in 2 seasons.
Age of both players? Bozak was born in March so he’s 24, Kulemin was born in July so he is still 23.
Who is more developed all around do you think?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd pick Kulemin
but hey… Bozak is number 2 offensive star on the team?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Back to the John Mitchell thing for a second
I was just on Elite Prospects looking up Kulemin’s international stats, and they have John Mitchell listed as being a TRANSFER… to an unknown club… umm… anyone else know anything?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
It's the top transfer listed on the site
http://www.eliteprospects.com/
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Oh nevermind
it’s just the same Free Agent story… linked to the sportsnet story… FALSE ALARM.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 28, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Mitchell
Yes he was useful, yes he was cheap, yes I’d like him back at a low cost because he puts up a good amount of points relative to his salary. Plus he has that 1 shootout move, neat!
After looking around the league, a ton of teams did not qualify players who had better production and/or perceived “potential” than mitchell. This is not a unique asset management problem with the Leafs… perhaps it’s not a problem at all.
It isn’t “optimal” in terms of ensuring you receive value for every asset you own, but maybe that’s an unrealistic expectation in the world of professional hockey – different than say, a retail business or investment portfolio.
As a sidenote, Oilers released Potulny to UFA status (25 years old, 15 G, 17A, 32 points last season on the OILERS [4 less points than Kulemin]), and Predators released Denis Grebeshkov (because they didn’t want to qualify him at a 10% over his previous salary, which was quite high relative to his usefulness).
Question: Do either of these players become interesting as depth signings this offseason, assuming we have cap space?
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
I'd take a run at both
we frankly need more youthful depth. I really don’t want Finger/Beauchemin/Komisarek to be eating up a lot of cap space next year, but they probably will be.
Beyond that a player like Grebeshkov would be fine by me.
As for Potulny, I’d take him if he’s available cheap.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 29, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Problem
We’re getting damn close to our SPC limit.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 29, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
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