What Should Brian Burke Do (Part III)?

Editor's Note: Here is the third part of The '67 Sound's analysis of what moves Brian Burke should make beginning tomorrow. Part I looked at the basis on which he was evaluating the Leafs' roster, part II he looked at the current, established NHLers on the roster, and in part three...well, read on. 

In Part II I looked at what we have in the Leafs current roster of "established" NHL players, to determine what holes remained.  My conclusion was that we are set for defencemen, but have significant holes up front.  So far, no stunning revelations.  In this part I make the argument for putting Stalberg, Caputi, Hanson and possibly Kadri on the team, minimizing our needs in free agency.

Here are the stats on Leafs forwards who appeared for the Leafs last year and remain under contract, plus Mike Brown:

A few explanations are in order.  For Kadri, I have used Gabe Desjardins' "NHL equivalency" tool, which estimates that CHL points translate to NHL points at 1 : 0.29.  Therefore Kadri's 1.66 ppg becomes 0.48.  I have also shown some leeway with Caputi, Stalberg and Hanson in projecting their fit, assuming some level of improvement given their age.  It is also noteworthy that based on AHL stats, their NHL equivalency numbers are 0.38 ppg (Caputi), 0.37 ppg (Stalberg) and 0.36 (Hanson).  With the exception of the snakebitten Hanson (4.4% shooting percentage), these line up well with their NHL numbers.

Based on these statistics, I would argue that all but Rosehill and maybe Brown belong with the Leafs next year.  You could certainly argue that they are all marginal in their projected roles at best, and you would be right.  However, they have two things going for them: youth, and price.  It is unlikely that the Leafs can obtain better value production on the UFA market, and with the exception of Brown they are likely to improve given that they are all under 25 and coming off rookie seasons.

One concern with this plan is that Kadri, Stalberg, Caputi and Hanson might benefit from seasoning in the AHL.  This is a valid concern, and one for which I do not think there is a clear answer.  However, I thought it would be interesting to look at the backgrounds of players who averaged 0.65 to 0.75 ppg this year to see when they made the NHL.  These are not stars, but marginal 1st line/2nd line players, and hopefully their history will tell us when someone with that skill set is ready for the NHL.  I don't think any of us in our wildest dreams think Caputi, Stalberg or particularly Hanson will exceed these levels, and I for one would be happy with Kadri being a consistent 0.75 ppg guy.  Out of 24 players who produced at that rate last year, here are the stats on when they became NHL regulars, when they had their first 50 point season, and what they did before reaching the NHL, broken out by where they came from.

Kadri did better than the average CHL graduate and will be older than the average of what we hope will be his peers.  Caputi, Stalberg and Hanson all were close to the AHL 0.87 ppg "promotion level" average, and only Caputi is younger than the 22.8 average age. 

All of this is of course subject to what they do in camp.  We do not want players who are clearly not ready playing for the Leafs.  However, from what I saw last year each of Stalberg, Caputi and Hanson are ready to "sink or swim" this year, and based on last year's training camp I expect Kadri to earn it this year.

I should also make clear that my analysis is not suggesting that all four will become 0.65-0.75 ppg scorers.  It is suggesting that they are not being promoted noticeably faster than players with comparable stats and ages who went on to be successful.  This gives some comfort that promoting them this year will not be hindering their development.  If they do not pan out, it will probably be because they are not good enough.

Two final arguments in favour of promotion.  First, they have a combined cap hit of $4MM.  I do not how we could duplicate their production for less.  On the contrary, we would likely need to sign mediocre UFAs to multi-year deals at $2MM apiece or more to replace all four, which is the last thing a young, improving team like the Leafs needs.

Combined with the "established" veterans, we now have a Top 6 of Kessel, Bozak, Kulemin, Grabovski and Kadri; and a Bottom 6 of Stalberg, Caputi, Sjostrom, Hanson and Orr.  We need one more of each.

The easiest, and safest, solution is to slot in "whoever we get for Kaberle" in the Top 6, and re-sign Mitchell at less than $1MM for the bottom six.  However, this leaves a decidedly uninspiring roster filled with players who are largely playing at a level that their skill does not warrant.  We do not have any sure-fire prospects in the system and given Burke's stated desire for a rapid turnaround, an upgrade is called for.  The question is where.

In Part IV, I will argue in favour of signing Kovalchuk or trading (within reason) for Savard, and against signing any other prominent UFAs.