Maple Leafs sign Colby Armstrong
by Chemmy on Jul 1, 2010 1:54 PM EDT
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PrintThe Leafs have signed Colby Armstrong to a three year deal at $3M per. Armstrong is a very Brian Burke player which is why none of us are surprised he's here.
Last season Armstrong scored 15 goals and added 14 assists for Atlanta to go along with a 4.5GVT. Armstrong will be useful on the third line in a checking role with some penalty kill work.
This is an iffy signing. Armstrong will bring some grit and some jam to the team despite being overpaid (such is the UFA market). One just hopes the Leafs don't miss out on Ilya Kovalchuk because they were busy signing a guy who had 29 points last year.
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ugh
He’d better earn it. BETTER EARN IT
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 1:54 PM EDT reply actions
He’s Sidney Crosby’s best friend, right? CROSBYTOTEHLEAFS!
"...sometimes I wake up cradling a gourd."
WOOOHOOOOOOO
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
WWGRD? (What Would Gary Roberts Do?)
by PassivelyTruculent on Jul 1, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
That's 2 that better earn it
Armstrong & Phaneuf
One just hopes the Leafs don’t miss out on Ilya Kovalchuk because they were busy signing a guy who had 29 points last year.
But…but….but…..TRUCULENCE!!!1
I am the commenter formerly known as Belligerent Burkie
Follow me on twitter @CoolJ90 or add me to XBox Live - CoolJ90
Another reason I consider Colby Armstrong to be the Thrasher Even Strength MVP is that he made everyone around him better last season. Colby does many little things that go unnoticed by most hockey fans. He always clears his zone when he has the chance, he makes safe outlet passes. If there is no safe outlet pass he chips it up the wall or dumps into the offensive corner and starts the forecheck to get the puck back. He almost never ices the puck, he finds a way to gain ground.
If you share the ice with a guy like Colby that means you’re playing more of your minutes in the good part of the ice. You’re able to spend your energy wearing out the other team’s players and when they do clear their own zone the opposition is tired and much less likely to get a high quality shot. The result is a better SV% when you’re wearing out the opposition in their own end. Because Colby plays more at the good end of the ice, virtually every Thrashers who played minutes with Armstrong had a better ES SV% with him on the ice than when he wasn’t on the ice. In some cases the differences are enormous. Enstrom had a personal ES SV% of .957 with Colby but just .907 without Colby. Rich Peverley also greatly benefited from playing with Armstrong at the good end of the ice.
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jul 1, 2010 1:55 PM EDT reply actions
Love your optimism Blurr.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jul 1, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
This was written in 2009. He was much worse last year.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
No but it’s not clear if it’s a step back or his true level.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Thought of that post too. Good find. But he took a big step back last year.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
well this I like.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes Armstrong dominates play at evens despite his 29 points.
…
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he has good advanced stats
I’m trying to not be mad
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
please continue to mock people who don’t hold your opinion. it makes for such a refreshing change of pace…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jul 1, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Continue to put your fingers in your ears because you liked some guy before we ever signed him.
This isn’t a great deal. Armstrong isn’t an exceptional player who brings anything to the table.
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well doesn’t he bring a lot of hitting, energy and defensive responsibility? I know 3 mil a year is overpaid but doesn’t his overall skill (not just scoring) give you some hope that he’ll be a contributor in other areas?
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
You’re Bitter Leaf fan it’s not a science to figure out you don’t like deals that aren’t Gretzky in his prime for league min. I kid. But seriously not even a little? He’s just gonna coast around and count his 3 mil?
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
I know 3 mil a year is overpaid
In a cap world that’s all that matters. For all his good qualities this leagueis an efficiency contest and an overpaid player has negative value.
The only possible exception to that rule, for me, is premium talent because they can make everyone else better so even though overpaid if viewed in isolation, they make everyone else’s contracts better.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally get what you guys are saying. However we overpaid by 1.5 mil at most and .5 at least. Or maybe he snaps and we end up not overpaying at all. Like I said earlier this is a grade C deal in my eyes but you guys make it seem like he just burried our team for 3 seasons. he still has other moves to make.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
Because guys that suck and are overpaid are easy to move at the deadline?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
An expiring deal. Stempniak was a pending UFA. Armstrong has 3 years to go…
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
How many times can a club overpay by ~$1M before it becomes an issue?
I agree the move gets a C for now. But it might get a failing grade if the Leafs can’t land a better talent down the road due to lack of cap space.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
hey at least if we don’t sign Kovalchuk moves like this might prevent us from going after crummy UFAs
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by Chemmy on Jul 1, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
and it might get a passing grade if he scores 25 goals and hits a lot and kills penalties. I really didn’t watch him play enough to have any real opinion of him I’m just trying to ease down the stress on here. it’s not the end of the world. It’s definitely not what we’ve been writing about on here but it’s not doomsday either. lets see how the offseason pans out as a whole. he still has big moves to make to gain back your faith.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
Where does this “hits a lot” meme come from? Armstrong averages about 80 a year. That’s one hit a game.
John Mitchell out hit him in 2008-09.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Like I said I haven’t watched him too much but I’m reading off what I read about him on the other post. I’m not gonna question your hockey knowledge. Mine vs yours is not comparable. I’m just saying you and Chemmy and the others that are really hating this move can take some solace in the facts that 1. he’s not done dealing 2. the overpayment is not huge and 3. he can play better if he gets motivated by playing in toronto. I know he can also be worse but I’m just reserving my spazzing for later.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
I think it says a lot about the deal when the people who criticize it have to take “solace” in alleged future deals and the good old predicted improvement in play (does anyone ever sign a player in the hopes they get worse).
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Dude there is a thing called a big plan. You sign a bottom 6 because we needed improvement in that and then you move on and sign a top 6 or trade for one. I don’t see why taking solace in that thinking is bad
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
Good luck signing that top 6.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I said sign or trade. You don’t think he can get anyone worthwhile anymore? it’s not like he just destroyed his cap.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
These moves are self-limiting. They make it harder to land players.
Why play with one hand behind your back?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Like I said I got you on that point. It’s one deal (and others like it would make this a horrible direction) but I expect him not to continue down this path and that this deal was to address defensive responsibility and energy. I’m just on a mission to make you admit to something positive. I am swimming in futility
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
And Giguere is one deal, and Finger is one deal, and Komi is one deal…that’s a lot of ove-rpayments and a lot of “one deals”
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
He’s laid a couple of big blind-side hits is all.
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 1, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s a waste of resources. 29pts for $3M and Armstrong had as many hits as Lee Stempniak last year.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
3 mill
is too much for Armstrong
But you, sir, are still a Poopypants
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jul 1, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
TEAM GAME
or do you not watch hockey?
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jul 1, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s a fucking terrible deal.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
No chance. He was unveiled as manager of Liverpool today.
"My country is the world, my religion to do good" - Thomas Paine
Sigh
This is the one signing that pretty much everyone has seen coming but no one wanted to admit it would ever happen.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
Like Chemmy said, I think he fits perfectly into the grand scheme of things, but he’s a bit overpaid. If he puts up 40pts next year on the 3rd line with good numbers on the PK, then I’ll save he was a good acquisition.
I've always wanted to be a PPP Princess. You see kids, you can be anything you want to be; so long as Jay Leno doesn't also want to be that.
Fuck you Burke
$3MM for a third liner who had less ppg than JFM last year. I know his advanced stats are better but still. Less ppg than John FUcking Mitchell!!!
FOr those of you who thought $2.5MM was too much for Kule (who we still haven’t signed), we just paid $500K more for a guy who is 4 yrs older and had 5 less points last year.
Yes I am re-posting this. As much as I knoew it would happen I’m still pissed as hell.
Let me repeat: $3MM for a 3rd liner! And we still have only one legit 1st liner.
We Want Nonis?
WWGRD? (What Would Gary Roberts Do?)
by PassivelyTruculent on Jul 1, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree.
This is a bad deal. These are the types of over-payments that add up and limit a team’s ability to make future moves.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
but he HITS mf37 don’t you understand?
ignore his 29pts he plays the whole game in the offensive zone and makes everyone around him better
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I hear he’s great in the room.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
gives 110%
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I heard he yells in practice and likes to turn the music up in the locker room.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Plays tough, but has a soft heart off the ice.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I wish Atlanta had signed him for $3 mill.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
his upside
is through the roof
and he competes
he’s also clutch
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
Well
Armstrong definitely improves the third line; which makes the fourth line also better. And it puts more pressure on the top six guys because he could take their place if they don’t perform.
That’s a lot of money, but I don’t think he’s untradeable down the line.
I've been looking at the sky
Armstrong had two more points than Bozak in 42 more games. I don’t think the first line is worried about Armstrong.
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Of course Bozak isn’t worried, he’s C, Armstrong’s a winter.
Kulemin is worried.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Armstrong is a season?
/being a dick
WWGRD? (What Would Gary Roberts Do?)
by PassivelyTruculent on Jul 1, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, it wouldn't be good
But Kulemin needed to be pushed last fall (just one example). You don’t want your front line players to assume they’re always going to get their ice time, and at least Armstrong has played front line minutes before.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 1, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
This deal isn’t horrible our expectations are making it more horrible than it is. With that being said I also expected more but my initial reaction of oh no is being tempered. This slight overpayment isn’t as bad. Armstrong brings a bunch of stuff to the team and we still have kabby plus more room to make more improvements. I’ll reserve judgement on this one fully until I see how Armstrong fits with the Leafs. My current reaction is this is a C grade signing
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
I think he is a good, solid addition to the line-up. Yes, he is overpaid, but he doesn’t cripple us in terms of the cap. We can still go for players (including Kovalchuk) if Burke is willing to place Finger in the AHL.
by bradleyhutchison on Jul 1, 2010 1:59 PM EDT reply actions
I hope so.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
he is over paid by less than Finger is
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
We hated Blake, who put up 63 points IIRC. Colby had 29 last year and is paid only $1MM less.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
As a percentage of cap-space it’s not as bad, and the term is nowhere near as bad. But this is a really poor use of resources.
I’m disappointed in this signing, I’ll save my anger for the eventual, painful signing of Raffi Torres.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
by mf37 on Jul 1, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s the spirit.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jul 1, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
godno
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i’m bracing myself
WWGRD? (What Would Gary Roberts Do?)
by PassivelyTruculent on Jul 1, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I like him, not the price tag.
As per new community rules; all signature tags on PPP must contain the word "truculent".
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by Wrap Around Curl on Jul 1, 2010 2:00 PM EDT reply actions
@CraigCustance: Told the Maple Leafs are currently not in the mix for Ilya Kovalchuk. http://bit.ly/bWGmwB
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$59.4 M/23
=$2.58 million, to calculate crudely. Is Armstrong a below-average NHLer? If not, is $500,000 a big overpayment in the NHL?
I realize the argument is better stated on median salary, but nevertheless, the cap sure has gone up a whole lot… this isn’t a huge salary.
no
but that overpayment is how much we paid John Mitchell last year, who had more points…..
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I hate Mitchell, but he did everything last year…
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
for 1/3rd the price
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it was Scott Reynolds on Copper & Blue who covered this ground, but the basic point was it’s not just Wade Redden deals that kill your cap. Its the accumulation of $2-4 MM deals for mediocre players who prevent you from acquiring/retaining top flight talent.
Burke just drove another nail into our coffin.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s not how it works.
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Nirbo It’s not a matter of long-division, it’s about amassing talent by having players outperform their contracts.
I don’t believe Armstrong is capable of outperforming his deal.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Don’t be facetious. There is no amount of Armstrongs you could sign to equal one Kovalchuk; it doesn’t work like that.
I've always wanted to be a PPP Princess. You see kids, you can be anything you want to be; so long as Jay Leno doesn't also want to be that.
Look at Chicago’s Stanley Cup roster. How many $9 million players? Look at Philly’s runner-up roster. Not a great sample size I’ll admit, but still.
:^/
Crosby and Malkin from 09
The trio of big salaries on the Wings in 08
I've always wanted to be a PPP Princess. You see kids, you can be anything you want to be; so long as Jay Leno doesn't also want to be that.
I think he meant the hawks. Kovalchuk is one of the best players in the league.
"...sometimes I wake up cradling a gourd."
Well
Best pure scorers maybe, he needs a lot of work on the rest of his game.
by CancerousRocket on Jul 1, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
sure, but what is it that we need? A high scoring top 6 forward. Look at free agency lists for the next couple of years and tell me if anyone comes close to Kovalchuk’s amount of skill.
"...sometimes I wake up cradling a gourd."
We need scoring
But not all from one player. I would prefer that Burke try to build more than a one-line team. It is called not putting all of your eggs in one basket. Keep in mind, Kovalchuk will be demanding nearly 1/5 of a team’s Salary cap in free agency.
by CancerousRocket on Jul 1, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
scoring wont all come from one player, the leafs have Kessel
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
So you are saying...
That Kovlachuk and Kessel would play on different lines? They both seem like 1st line players.
by CancerousRocket on Jul 1, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
except on the PP, probably yeah, you spread that shit out
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re afraid we’ll put all our eggs in one basket so you don’t want to add a 40 goal scorer?
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I am not saying that I don't want to add a 40 goal scorer
Just not at the $10M cap hit or so that he is going to be inflicting upon some team today, when we could be working towards getting 2 quality players instead. I am not saying that this is all going to happen overnight. The Leafs are rebuilding, and getting into a bidding war with a bunch of other teams for one-dimensional player, is not the way to do that.
by CancerousRocket on Jul 1, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
no one here is saying we want him at a 10 mill cap hit,
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
If he wants
To play on a rebuilding team, at say… a $7m or so cap hit, I say go for it. This is free agency though, and that is just completely unrealistic, given the number of teams that are bidding on him.
by CancerousRocket on Jul 1, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, we’re not advocating signing him at any price.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
indeed, the Idea is (hopefully) a hossa esque retirement front loaded deal
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
5 million a year for 10 years
…And then contract him to paint the Leafs office every summer for the next 10 years for $10 million/yr!
by CancerousRocket on Jul 1, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Know who is the only player to score more goals than Kovalchuk since the lockout?
Alex Ovechkin.
The Leafs were 25th in goal scoring last year. Armstrong will be a drop in a bucket in improving that.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
23rd or bust!
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by blindfolded tank driver on Jul 1, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry for joining this late, but...
Goal scoring or lack there of isn’t what caused us to finish 29th over all. It was goal prevention. Armstrong’s play will help with that without a doubt. to me that makes it worth it since we need players like at as much as one that can bury the biscuit. For his contract, $3M is a slight over payment but without even stepping in the ice in the blue ‘n’ white, its really unfair to make such claims. Plus I wonder how many would rather have Steen back at over $3.5/yr… yes Steen out scored him but Steen is also soft as warm butter. I’ll take Armstrong and hope (if it is burke’s plan) get Kovi, if not I’m happy with Armstrong as it a type of player we need as much as a top flight 1st liner.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Goal scoring or lack there of isn’t what caused us to finish 29th over all. It was goal prevention. Armstrong’s play will help with that without a doubt. to me that makes it worth it since we need players like at as much as one that can bury the biscuit
It’s actually about goal differential. Armstrong was +2 GF/GA last season, which means he’s basically a wash.
For his contract, $3M is a slight over payment
The Leafs are riddled with over-payments. It;s a slippery slope.
Plus I wonder how many would rather have Steen back at over $3.5/yr… yes Steen out scored him but Steen is also soft as warm butter. I’ll take Armstrong
Why defend the deal by citing bad/questionable contracts? It’s like saying, sure you got food poisoning from that take-out joint, but the one across town gave people typhoid and the diner on the corner killed people with samonella.
A bad deal is a bad deal, regardless of any idiotic moves made by other GMs.
Armstrong as it a type of player we need as much as a top flight 1st liner.
Game on the line, you want to send Armstrong over the boards as your sixth man or a first-line, elite talent?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I guess a guy like armstrong in your eyes means he would have absolutely nothing to do with why you may be in that situation to start with?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Apparently, he’s not Kovalchuk, and people were Jonesing for Kovie, so…. they’re responding to Armstrong like he shit on the cake. Versteeg with 20-22 goals = BONUS CUP! But a day later, when we all want Kovie, Armstrong’s 15-22 goals = KILL ME NOW.
It’s Kovie fever. This too shall pass. I just kinda feel bad for Armstrong.
by not norm ullman on Jul 2, 2010 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Truth be told, I’m indifferent but I find it hilarious that without seeing him lace up for a game for the team, we can make such outlandish remarks. Take a breath. I think I know something about the game but compared to Burke or anyone on the Leafs management team I know nada.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
In a hard cap environment, teams don’t win by overpaying for marginal talents.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Brian Campbell’s $7M per would like a word
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jul 2, 2010 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Brian Campbell can talk to all the ELCs on the Hawks.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
and so will Armstrong.
That said, a $3-4M overpayment certainly didn’t hamstring the Hawks cup run. Not to mention the same overpayment on their now backup goalie.
There are no absolutes. Some people like this deal. Some people like Kaberle as a Leaf. Some people get tired of having to justify their feelings (like me…)
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jul 2, 2010 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Make a list of Hawks who outperformed their deals. Now do the same with the Leafs that might.
Do you really think the lists are comparable?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
keith...
5.5 :O
seabrook 3.5!!!!!
kane toews 6.3 (less than phaneuf)
sharp 3.9 (less than a mil more than stupid colby and hes actually useful)
this is starting to get depressing
Kool as KuKumbers Kulemin.... I don't believe in C's, just like Ron Wilson (new signature under construction)
You should look at last year (when they actually won the Cup).
Their job’s a lot tougher next year.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 2, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
OMG I agree with you on this point. But what have you seen in Armstrong and his game that makes you sure of him being a “marginal talent”?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
He’s a 3rd liner who isn’t even a 0.5pt/game player.
He Averages one hit per game.
In terms of special teams play, he was 9th on his team in SH/TOI and 15th in PP TOI – so he’s not adding much to the Leafs special teams.
His career shooting percentage is excellent (13.3%) but he doesn’t take near enough shots. One might think his assist totals would be higher as a result, – maybe he’s passing up shot attempts for passes, but if that’s the case his assist totals are awfully low.
Add it all up and you get a middling player for an above average salary.
I think that’s a bad investment.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
ok
But this is something you watched him play and saw or reading stats. Yes stats don’t lie but they also don’t show the whole picture.
3M for a third liner is high but not that crazy overpayment. We have space, Burke was and will always spend to the cap limit. What would of been a better outcome for you, that he did nothing today?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Over-payments add up and on the Leafs they’ve got way more players being over-paid than underpaid.
I watched Armstrong with the Penguins and wasn’t impressed. His career highlight was likely punching out Darcy Tucker.
What would of been a better outcome for you, that he did nothing today?
Yes. If there’s no value to be had don’t sign deals.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
fair enough
but considering the Leafs being a 29th place team, he had to do something to improve the team. Is it the right move? You and others think not, me and others like me would rather wait and see, then pass judgement.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
My problem isn’t with the player, it’s with the contract. I’m strongly of the belief that there has to be a more efficient way to get a 3rd line presence for less than $3M.
Moreover, all of these “slight overpays” limit Burke’s ability to make moves throughout the year.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
I don't know...
Welcome to free agency? I don’t know what I can respond to that. It is what it is and hope he’s worth it. If not hopefully Burke can dump him if so need be.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Not really sure why Armstrong and Kovalchuk are related. If you really wanted Kovalchuk, we could trade Kaberle or Grabovski. Maybe Kovalchuk doesn’t want Toronto. We have lots of flexibility if we really wanted to totally bung it all up like that.
I would, I want to watch 50 goals. But I don’t know if it’s the best way to go without ELCs coming in to supplement.
If you really wanted Kovalchuk, we could trade Kaberle or Grabovski.
Burke’s shown no indication that he is willing to do that. The team had more than enough money to sign Kovalchuk before he began adding players.
And once you need to trade players because of a cap crunch you start getting shitty returns.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
there should be a like button
because i like this comment.
Agree 100%
Kool as KuKumbers Kulemin.... I don't believe in C's, just like Ron Wilson (new signature under construction)
shut up. learn to keep two hands on your stick
by ShahofToronto on Jul 1, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
also if you click on actions you can hit a button that will recommend ‘rec’ the comment showing your liking for what was said.
by ShahofToronto on Jul 1, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
why dont you learn how to bury rebounds….
and thats not the same as the like button and you know that.
Kool as KuKumbers Kulemin.... I don't believe in C's, just like Ron Wilson (new signature under construction)
i did, that game winner at the end. its the reason we were able to leave and go home to eat, so show some appreciation.
by ShahofToronto on Jul 1, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at Chicago’s roster. How many players ages 18-23 vastly outperforming their ELCs? Armstrong is 27 and has a career high of 40 points three years ago.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
Plays with heart.
Good in his own end.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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Yeah but not as clutch as Chris “Little League World Series Champion” Drury.
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 1, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Great in the community.
You mess with the bull young man, you'll get the horns - Principal Richard Vernon
by Biff Carrington on Jul 1, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Top level talent you overpay for, because they can do things that other players CANT no matter how many you add.
2ndary scoring and “hard workers” should have efficient contracts.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Jul 1, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s so simple. Why do we all understand it but Burke doesn’t?
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Top level talent you overpay for, because they can do things that other players CANT no matter how many you add.
Top level talent you overpay for, because they can do things that other players CANT no matter how many you add.
Top level talent you overpay for, because they can do things that other players CANT no matter how many you add.
Top level talent you overpay for, because they can do things that other players CANT no matter how many you add.
Top level talent you overpay for, because they can do things that other players CANT no matter how many you add.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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by Chemmy on Jul 1, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
So, here’s the trouble: if Chicago had overpaid for Hossa, would they have been able to sign Kane, Toews, and Keith to such reasonable per-year figures?
they just would have moved someone else in addition to sopel, bfuglien, and versteeg
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
But
why would they have accepted those deals, if Hossa was making way more? It’s like the Lidstrom contract effect in Detroit.
I agree, we should sign the cap-circumventing deal for Kovalchuk like Hossa did.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
Yup. And if we can’t get Kovalchuk at that kind of price, why not wait, and sign mid-level contracts that we know Burke has the ability to move for decent return in many cases?
My point is that there are other opportunities that do pop up. $3 M contracts are not unmovable and flexibility can be created.
Sure, but why paint yourself into a corner? Why do things that have higher probabilities of failure than success?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Who are you kidding, man? Who’s going to take Armstrong at $3m while he’s locked in for the next 3 years?
You’re kidding yourself.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
Get over it people Kovalchuk isn’t coming to Toronto might as well let it go. This deal is about a million to much though.
by CamShaft on Jul 1, 2010 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If no one else was talking to Colby, then I could see that. Free agency makes you over pay for players.
by bradleyhutchison on Jul 1, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
YOU WILL NOT DAMPER MY HOPE HEATHEN
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Try this
You’re a dick
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Jul 1, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
EVERYONE should be excited to play in Toronto.
It doesn’t make overpaying him any better.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Jul 1, 2010 2:10 PM EDT reply actions
Armstrong’s 2009-10
GFON/60 – 2.61
GAON/60 – 2.48
His QUALTEAM was also third lowest on the Thrashers forward corps.
by Grabovski's better than you think on Jul 1, 2010 2:10 PM EDT reply actions
I’m so glad we got Colby Armstrong.
If this is our draft, we just made a poor pick.
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
This is about Colby Armstrong. General stuff here:
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2010/7/1/1547565/free-agency-frenzy
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2010/7/1/1547565/free-agency-frenzy
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2010/7/1/1547565/free-agency-frenzy
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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With the understanding
that any argument about Colby Armstrong’s contract inevitably leads to “someone” bringing up Kovalchuk :)
This is terrible….3mil for a third line checker…..first move of Burke that i absolutely hate…..and Burke is afraid of paying Kuli 3 mil.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Looking at next year since 1967
Armstrong was a UFA who other teams wanted. Kulemin is a restricted free agent that has no other teams bidding for him.
by bradleyhutchison on Jul 1, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody forced him to sign Armstrong
And Kule still isn’t signed…
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Armstrong advanced stats
Qualcomp: 7th among Thrashers Fs
Corsi QoC (basically, qualcompy measured by corsi rather than +/-): 5th
Corsi rel. QoC: 2nd.
Qualteam: 12th
corsi QoT: 10th
Corsi rel QoT: 9th
Ozonestart: 2nd
So basically he played fairly soft minutes with crap teammates and had mediocre performance in view of those things (good corsi rel QoC, bad corsi re. QoT).
This does nothing to make me feel better.
you keep forgetting his clutchiness
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
7th in QCOMP for a guy who’s supposed to agitate other teams is really bad.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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This is silly. People want Kovie, so they hate Armstrong? What forwards do we have that plays the kind of game Armstrong plays? Mitchell? Mitchell had no energy, bobbled the puck about 18 times a game, absolutely no one after him as “character” player.
we hate armstrong because he is getting too much money and it limits the chances at getting kovy as well as screws with the leafs cap for 3 years
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Burke wants Kovie, he goes and gets him. Dumps Kabs, whatever. Our bottom 6 truly DID suck last year. Low energy, poor hitters, no PK specialists. At least Colby brings some juice.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Armstrong hits less than John Mitchell, scores less than John MItchell and costs 3x more than John Mitchell
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
This is nonsense. Hits LESS than John Mitchell??? Mitchell hits like a pillow. Colby runs people over. YouTube has 20 of Armstrong’s hits. How many big Mitchell hits?
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Armstrong had 80 hits last year as someone pointed out
one per game
thats pretty shitty for someone whose game is apparently to be a big scary bruising forward
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
lets not forget that the validity of the “hit” stat has always been questioned.
please don’t use it as gospel when it suits you
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jul 1, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Hockey Analysis has tried to take the subjective factor out. I’d bet it’s not enough to make it a big difference.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
NHL.com lists hits. I’d encourage you to go look them up.
In 2008-09, both Mitchell and Armstrong registered 88 hits.
In 2009-10, Armstrong had 80 hits. That’s on par with Stempniak.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
This is silly. The idea that John Mitchell is in any way the physical presence that Colby Armstrong is just doesn’t bear any relation to reality – whatever the “hits” statistic shows. Go to YouTube, punch their names in, and watch Colby wipe out 20 people. Then watch Mitchell’s highlights. He’s a pillow.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you’re right. Why use statistics compiled by the league when I can just watch youtube clips? What was I thinking?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
HE WAS OUTHIT BY ANTROPOV ON THE SAME TEAM WHICH MEANS HE HAD THE SAME PEOPLE KEEPING THE STATS
FUCKING ANTROPOV
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
except
sometimes they play away games…
I have nothing interesting to say.
by blurr1974 on Jul 1, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
they both played on the same team, so the away stat keepers would be keeping ticks on both of them
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Same team.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s like arguing that a guy that scored 4 highlight reel goals is much better than another that didn’t even though they both scored 20 goals.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
A goal is one point towards winning a game, no matter how well it is executed.
A hit is demoralizing and debilitating, depending on how well it is executed.
Schenn in his first year comes to mind, we were much happier with one great hit per game than four weak ones taking him out of position.
Not that cherry-picking is a good way to make an argument, it isn’t. Armstrong’s peripheral stats say that I want him scoring 18 goals and 40 points to be happy with him, he’s not a young Mike Peca.
Seriously, the threat of a goal of a certain kind, or a hit of a certain kind, CAN completely change how you play. I mean, Stajan had more hits than Armstrong last year. I could be hit by Stajan all game, and not even notice. You run me over – I notice. Same with goals. A guy that takes you end to end, dekes you out of your shorts, absolutely changes how you play – whether it should or not.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
worked out well for exelby and the leafs
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Why the great belief in particular stats, versus watching guys play? Versteeg – whom I like – has only scored 22 + 20 goals the last two years, right? Armstrong has scored 22 + 15. Yet, we ALL think Versteeg is a massively more skilled offensive player, right? And are pleased to give up DiDO AND Stalberg AND Paradis for him. And Colby was on ATLANTA, not Chicago. Why don;t I argue they’re close, offensively?
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Versteeg is young, his production is trending upwards and he played hard minutes in Chicago with bad linemates.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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Versteeg lost his spot on the second line to Hossa and scored two fewer goals.
The big drop in his production is from playing with stiffs like John Madden who can’t score; he lost ten assists this year.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Dude. I’m the one getting beat up because I don’t know stats. Versteeg declined, and only got 44. And this, on the HAWKS. Where everybody’s defensive focus was on the top two lines.
What I’m saying – and I lIKE the Versteeg deal, ok? – is there are 1001 qualitative things that make a pure stats focus ridiculous. Like people who’d argue that a Stajan hit is equal to an Armstrong hit. That’s all. There’s more than the game of individual stats.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
versteeg declined because he got bumped down a line and was playing with players who were worse at scoring goals than anything the leafs had, and he still scored 20 goals
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
No one’s beating you up for not knowing stats.
You’re saying Armstrong hits a lot well he hits as much as Leafs that you think are soft.
there are 1001 qualitative things that make a pure stats focus ridiculous
“Heart” “grit” etc. etc.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you saying heart/grit count, or are you mocking? Sorry, I can’t tell.
As for hits, I played all my life, and damn straight – for me, anyway – how hard you were being hit mattered. I knew that if I hit some of the top talent players HARD enough, they’d be done. Is that an unreasonable thing to say? How about if I came up with a stat that calculated the force of each hit? Combined speed X weight X surface area or somesuch. Would it matter then? Or do people think Stajan and Mitchell would seriously rank as high as Armstrong?
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I am saying that intangibles are what people use to describe things when they want to create a narrative.
If a player has to play soft minutes, like Armstrong does, that means that he cannot hit the talented players. If he can’t get on the ice without getting outscored then he can’t get the chance at that one big hit so it doesn’t matter how hard he hits.
Stajan, for one, scored more than Armstrong and played much tougher minutes than him.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude, people create narratives with STATS just as easily as these terms you seem to disdain. for instance. You say Stajan scored more, against tougher competition, and the stats say he hit more. Great. there’s your stats, your narrative.
Colby was +6, Stajan -6. So who’s getting outscored?
Their career points are 239/472 for Stajan, versus 178/360 for Colby. So Stajan is clearly a better scorer? Hmmmm.
And “soft minutes” as an average, tell you nothing about what happens in the 5 minutes per game against other top lines and defence.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
versteeg is 24 and has scored no less than 20 goals every year in the NHL and was a force in the playoffs when his team won the cip
Armstrong is 28 and has scored 20 goals once and had 29 points last year
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
And Colby played relatively soft minutes.
Versteeg could post 60 points. Amstrong will be lucky to hit 35. They are paid the same amount.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
Ah, the old ‘watch players play’ chestnut.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Umm, just gave you numbers. Versteeg 22+20 goals. Colby 22+15. You’re the one arguing a goal is a goal.
Explain.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
You’ve seen the numbers. Which ones in this thread do you want me to repeat?
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I got irritated with the “chestnut” crack is all. I’m an economist, two degrees, played college hockey, so I can count, ok? And I love stats, and the better they get, the more I like it. Still… I also know a hit is not always a hit, a goal is not always a goal, and you can run the stats as hard as you like, they aren’t ALWAYS going to tell you Mitchell is better to have than Armstrong, even if he’s cheaper per point scored or per hit or whatever.
e.g. I just plain thought Mitchell looked AWFUL this past year, like Wellwood in his donut days. So somebody has a stat that says he’s cheap. Maybe. I wouldn’t want him on the team. Does that stat make me wrong? I’m not sure.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the “I watch players play” is insulting frankly.
Mitchell was poor this year. The knee injury took a lot out of him. Wilson playing him above his head did nothing to help.
But in a cap world performance is always relative to cap hit. That’s the way things are.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The cap world sentence has no more traction on reality than me saying – it’s all about goalies or draft picks or team toughness or Top 6 talent or whatever. I’d agree that cap is important – critical. But it’s one of many things. People (not you) measuring points per cap dollar may think this is the only way to build a team. I’m just saying any one stat is just any one stat – useful, but not usually deal-breaking.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The cap is not a stat. The cap is the be-all and end-all. There’s no dancing around it or trying to elevate intangibles or team-building philosophies.
Everything is secondary to the cap and everything is evaluated in relation to it.
100 goals by a forward would be great but if he takes up 99% of the cap then your team is still going to suck.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
That everything is secondary to the cap, and it is a be-all and end-all is nonsense on stilts.
Apparently, the team which best manages its Cap must, inevitably, win the championship. (Be-all and end-all.)
This is not the case. Full stop.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
The game still has to be played of course but when you are evaluating anything it’s against the cap.
If a guy scores 100 pts and is paid $3M that’s much better than a guy that scores 100 pts and is paid $10M.
I didn’t think that that was a controversial or new idea.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
To evaluate things against the cap is fine – agreed. That it is the be-all, end-all, and everything else is secondary is more controversial.
People were arguing against Armstrong because Mitchell was cheaper, and had better “hit” stats, etc. Therefore, Burke was an idiot to pay $3M. I actually agreed with Burke, that BOTH our top 6 and our bottom 6 need real improvement.
The idea that we’re debating players on the basis of pure stats and pure cap hit doesn’t quite wash – Phaneuf is probably paid too high, and Schenn’s stats probably not fab… but people LIKE them. And is a Phaneuf hit as hard as a Stajan one?
So me? I like Versteeg, and I like Armstrong too. I’d take Armstrong over Mitchell, and Stempy… and even over Stajan. More energy, more guts, harder hits, still scores some.
No, no Kovie. But I’d pay some cash for an established, high-energy, character 3rd liner.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Check Mirtle’s tweets. Armstrong is a cheap shot artist who doesn’t hit much when someone’s looking.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
this is why I don’t hate this. Because we had a bunch of soft bags last year. No one ran around and raised the blood pressure. Maybe Rosehill for a bit. Maybe I’m forgetting someone but i don’t remember us having a true energy pest.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
Good thing the Leafs signed Orr for those 4 minutes a night.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Orr is one of the best face punchers in the NHL
Armstrong isnt close to the best anything
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
People on here wanting shits like Ott, and they GET a high-energy, loves to hit, willing to fight, scores some goals CHARACTER guy like Armstrong… and they’re all bummed? Makes no sense.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Character is good, over priced character that doesnt do anything special is bad
Brindamour has a ton of character, lets convince him to come out of retirement
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesn’t hit and he doesn’t fight.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Loves to hit? Hits as much as Mitchell and Stempniak.
Willing to fight? Last time I checked, Leafs had Orr and Brown.
Scores some goals? For $3M/year he better. Career high was 40pts.
Character? Meh. WTF is character?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Character? Meh. WTF is character?
well this may not mean much to you, but to paraphrase burke, “character is everything, you can’t/don’t win without guys with character”.
But thanks for pissing on what seemed to be a good day to be a Leafs fan.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
You’re welcome!
Character is everything, you can’t/don’t win without guys with character
The LA Lakers sure were fine character fellows. As was John McGraw. The list is endless.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Basketball?????
really? it isn’t even a team sport anymore, please!
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
You need to use more question marks.
FYI, John McGraw was in baseball.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Sorry but baseball shouldn’t even be considered a sport. Its a past time and a shitty one at that. Sorry but why is it that in every year some lower ranking plug of a player turns it up an notch or so during the playoffs? All year round he’s a plug, come playoffs he takes his play to elevate his team. I’m not saying this is what I think Armstrong will be or something but still I think those against this move is a bit overboard. God talk about over reactions.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
still I think those against this move is a bit overboard
I like the way you think – you’re either in favour of the move or you’re a bit overboard.
Quick question, is being a bit overboard that moment when you’re off the deck but you haven’t hit the water?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
trying not to sound like a dick…
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Do character guys sound like a dick? Or do character guys sound more like Chris Pronger?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
“Hey Ronnie, we need a 3rd shooter!”
“Um, um, Armstrong! How’s your character tonight?”
“Uh, it’s good coach”
“Excellent, go win us this game”
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
by birky on Jul 1, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t want Kovalchuk. I hate the Armstrong deal.
One has nothing to do with the other. I also can’t speak to why anyone else might dislike the Armstrong deal.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
god damn you
for being right.
i can be talked into Kovalchuk. I can’t be talked into Armstrong at this price.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
See above
Mitchell hits more.
There is no justification to pay 3rd liners $3MM when you only have one legit 1st liner. None.
COlby Armstrong, best case scenario, makes you 1 to 2 wins better. That’s rearranging the deckchairs of the TItanic on a team with as much need for improvement as the Leafs.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I just remember all the “tough guys” Burke brought in last year. Except Orr, look how that turned out.
Yeah, Orr, Exelby and Komi really made all the difference.
I’d rather have good players than tough players.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Hate contract. Not Armstrong. It’s Finger all over again. Fine player, not worth his contract.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
The cap has gone up, and this contract is for less money and less years than either of your examples.
Armstrong's nowhere near as good as Blake
Blake averaged, what? Around 50 points with the Leafs?
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I am NOT defending the Blake deal. Quite the opposite.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Amazing: in Blake’s first season here he scored 15 goals on 4.5% shooting.
If he shot at 10% he would have scored 33.
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Watching Phil Kessel on the rush is a lot like watching Jason Blake on the rush. Only Phil Kessel is good.
"My country is the world, my religion to do good" - Thomas Paine
uh no. Jason Blake skates circles around the rink
Phil Kessel skates circles around defencemen.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
Blake: Skates through the neutral zone at speed; gets to the hashmarks; lets go wrist shot that thumps weakly into the goalies chest; continues skating around the net until he has no chance of getting back to stop the counter attack.
Kessel: Skates through the neutral zone at speed; gets to the hashmarks; rips a laser over the goalie’s shoulder and into the net; continues skating back to the bench to accept the congratulations of teammates.
"My country is the world, my religion to do good" - Thomas Paine
Signing Armstrong for 3 mil is a bit of an overpayment, but we are paying Grabovski 100k less and most people project him to be around 50 points a season – and that is good value.
4
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jul 1, 2010 2:24 PM EDT reply actions
Armstrong had 29 pts last year.
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I’ll take the over on that figure on the Leafs, 2010-2011. Not much of a statement I know, but not too far to 20/40. I’ll take it if he can do that.
Thing is his shooting percentage didn’t drop last year, he just took way fewer shots.
That’s bad.
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Our best hope is that last year, for whatever reason, was an aberration.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Let’s assume that Kovalchuk wasn’t an option for a sec. If Armstrong puts up 15 goals and 40 points, playing on the 2nd and 3rd lines; performs notably as a defensive forward; and gives you one or two hits to talk about, will you be OK with this relatively short, relatively moderate UFA deal?
Yes but I don’t expect a 33% production increase from a 28 year old.
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… also given that we have lots of flexibility should a different $8M guy become available. Again assuming that Kovalchuk wasn’t an option. I do agree if he was receptive to Toronto at <$9M I wanted him, badly.
Kovalchuk is a rarity: he’s an unquestionably elite goal scorer hitting the open market at 27.
That might never happen again. It’s not happening again next year.
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Also… we still have enough room for Kovalchuk if Kaberle is going, and that’s just the obvious option.
no
we don’t if were getting what burke said were getting which is a real top six forward.
Kool as KuKumbers Kulemin.... I don't believe in C's, just like Ron Wilson (new signature under construction)
wasn’t finished that thought.. 15 goals isn’t shabby for a third line checking guy.
This isn’t the greatest but isn’t nearly the end of the world.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jul 1, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
This isn’t the greatest but isn’t nearly the end of the world.
A team as bad as the Leafs last year needs to be getting better, more cap efficient.
THis makes us less so.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not saying it’s good. I was pretty disappointed when I found out we signed him even before I saw the term and salary.
Jury is still out on the Komi signing, it’s a wait and see to find out how Phaneuf will do, and who knows about Kessel Vs the draft picks..
but this deal is definitely a stinker.
Although I agree being good is done in increments and being efficient contributes to wins, in the over all picture this deal isn’t ‘OMFG we are now so screwed! We over paid a third line winger by about 500-750k a year.’
And yes, there is the whole ‘We could have had Mitchell’ stuff.
I think I’ll reserve judgment until after I have seen Armstrong play at least a period or two as a Leaf.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jul 1, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do I get the feeling we’ll be using “colby armstrong” and “completely unmitigated disaster” together in 6 months
"if women think they aren’t meant to cook…then why do they have milk and eggs inside them?"
No, he won’t be a disaster but he’s not what the Leafs need and he won’t live up to his contract.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Nik “wah wah he’s so soft” Antropov had more hits than Colby Armstrong last year.
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Good comparable because they play on the same team; the subjectiveness in hitting comes down to each rink’s scorer awarding hits.
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and there you have it
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
In Burke weTrustCriticize every move.
fixed.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
Everyone liked last night’s trade. This one less so. Depends on the move.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone on HERE likes the Versteeg move.
Everyone at MLHS thought we gave up a future Bure in Stalberg.
Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
And yet neither have played a game for us…
"My country is the world, my religion to do good" - Thomas Paine
All you can go by either way is on the past. The past suggests one is more likely to work out than the other.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
From hildymac on Twitter, she’s a Thrashers fan:
“Scoring and grit.” I love how TSN’s hyping Armstrong.
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I dislike this signing
so, so very much.
This is EXACTLY what i was afraid of. A 28 year old with a career high of 40 points? Why are we hardballing Kulemin again?
This moves the team from shitty to mediocre, while handcuffing flexibility. But I see no way to make the jump to elite any time soon.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
We require, as a truculencity...
…proper levels of goaltending, defense and offense.
Enough with the sandpaper. Can we get some players whose specialty is playing hockey?
YES PLEASE.
THe point of the game is not to out-PIM people.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Also for a team built to be tough the Leafs didn’t seem to hit very much.
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Versteeg is an okay start...
…as a second or third line forward, sure—but we need a first-liner with twice Versteeg’s point production.
Versteeg is a Top 6 forward.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jul 1, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
For those defending Amstrong signing
The basic line is “meh, maybe a bit overpaid but he’s OK, makes the team better”.
This is EXACTLY the rationale I remember hearing when people tried to justify the Blake, Finger and Komisarek signings overpayments.
How did those work out?
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
all those guys are paid more than armstrong. Komisarek gets a mulligan. Armstrong really isn’t the end of the world. For all those guys bashing armstrong you’re making it seem like Burke just handcuffed himself forever with no outs and no hope. All I have been saying is give it a chance. He has the tools to become a great grinder.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
you dont pay 3 mill for a great grinder
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
a 20 goal great grinder. It’s over by a mil or so. It’s not a huge deal. It’s a C grade. A wash. it’s neither bad nor good. No one is going OMG! Rooolz!! but there are people going oh fuck this is horrible etc…
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
in 5 NHL seasons he has scored 20 once, he is not a perennial 20 goal scorer
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Look, the reason we’re here is for instant reaction. I hate the deal, OK? It’s poor use of cap resources, which is all that matters. It makes us a bit better but it makes us less flexible. So great, we’ve locked in one win worth of improvement. And have precious little cap space for the other 15 wins we need to pick up from somewhere to be a cap contender.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
ok that’s how you feel I already acknowledged that. I don’t mind the deal ok? That’s my instant reaction. Instant reaction can have forward thinking incorporated.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
Yeah, that’s fair. I’m just responding to the “stop criticizing, let’s see how it plays out” argument.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t want you to stop criticizing. I just want my fellow PPP friends to enjoy their Canada day a bit more and lose less hair today. I love hearing the arguments on here because it teaches me other perspectives.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
by Chuck Diesel on Jul 1, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thank God I’ll never go bald.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup, I enjoy contrary views. Sometimes I even change mine.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
me too. That’s what makes this place great. On a side note I love your posts and analysis. I’m sure we probably share the same hope and you’d love to see Armstrong turn into a Bill Berg on steroids as much as me.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
No one here is going to be unhappy if Armstrong shows up makes us forget about Darcy Tucker before the lockout.
But at the same time looking at the data and using our experience we don’t think it’s likely.
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and I agree with your stats analysis. This whole time I’ve been trying to say his other parts are good. he won’t give away pucks he’s a plus player, he played on atlanta which is a hockey deathbed and is coming to Toronto to play in front of people who care. He has scored 20 so that he’s capable of. I still don’t know who he played with in Atlanta so I don’t know how to compare quality of teammates difference.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
and we’re only paying $2M more armstrong than we are tucker next year. i guarantee he’ll have more of an impact on the team than tucker.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
what a fucker he was. at least mccabe had the decency to waive his no-trade clause.
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
by daoust on Jul 1, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
MF37 loves you for saying that.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
hahah
That’s a good bright side comment.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Much as I love Tucker..
Leaflands’ problem is too much love for Tucker, Domi, Orr et al. not enough for Sundin and … um… I’m drawing a blank here…
At this point we don’t need character or grit or intangibles. We need “puts puck in net.”
We have neither. Um, beggars can't be choosers?
And who is to say we won’t acquire skilled forwards before October / whenever the season starts that month?
We had two gaping holes up front
- no physical presence, also inept defensive forwards
- lack of skill
It’s easier to address the first point so now that it’s being taken care of, I would expect Burke to address the skill question.
by the cat's meow on Jul 2, 2010 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
If there was no cap then it wouldn’t be a problem to overpay by a million. But when you add it to the other deals we are overpaying on and the ones were are just getting proper value from it hampers team building.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Burke just needs to deal Caputi, Gunnar and Monster and he can reach his apparent goal of having not a single player clearly outperforming his contract.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
if there is anything chicago has proven it is the inflated 3milish contracts that kill you the most because they add up very fast
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
And before anyone points to their Cup...
They had Keith, Kane and Toews cheap. We don’t have that luxury.
by The '67 Sound on Jul 1, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
If you overpaid about a million twice it makes about 1% difference to your overall success. It’s one contract. For a guy I thought we kind of need. That’s why I’m ok with it. I might not be later and conversely you might love it later. I’m just stating my opinion along with the others.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
Yeah, I get that. But you can’t state an opinion in a vacuum. If you think it’s not bad money because it can be moved easily then expect someone to mention that Burke hasn’t really shown an inclination to taking the easy steps to clear cap space.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not really thinking about the chance to move him. I’m rather stating that I expect Burke to do something about Kabs and Finger and perhaps even Komi Grabs or Beauch to a lesser degree. The trade season really just begun. I’m thinking Burke was waiting at draft time until the market showed itself and heated up. Perhaps I’m wrong and off base but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt so far. I like mostly all his moves up to here so I have faith.
October 25, 1966. Thank you Lord Kelvin
Plus side: No Ray Whitney.
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This feels
like $500K too much, which is a pretty unremarkable first-day UFA premium.
He’s going to be 30 when the contract finishes, not too old at all. We used to call those a forward’s prime years.
Again, if he sucks, he sucks. Haven’t seen him enough in the last few years to make a good judgment as to whether he’s worth the (limited) hype.
MIRTLE
Told Leafs not pursuing Raffi Torres as of yet. Armstrong may have filled that role.
Told Leafs not pursuing Raffi Torres as of yet. Armstrong may have filled that role.
Told Leafs not pursuing Raffi Torres as of yet. Armstrong may have filled that role.
Told Leafs not pursuing Raffi Torres as of yet. Armstrong may have filled that role.
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thank the baby jesus
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
THE WORLD IS ENDING !
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by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This reminds me of people last year arguing that Vesa Toskala was going to improve.
How did that turn out?
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it’s the Leafs
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by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s a comparable where the stats and trends point towards a player not living up to his contract and it was right.
I could use Beauchemin as well, or Finger, or maybe Komisarek after this year.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, I go out for a few hours and the world apparently ends.
I dont like it either, but its only a three year contract. Next off season, its a two year contract.
And I highly doubt it has any effect whatsoever on whether we sign Kovalchuk.
I'm so sorry Toronto
Army’s had an ego about him ever since he came from Pit in the Hossa trade. He’s great with the fans but for some reason that has NEVER shown, believes he should be on a top 2 scoring line. He’s a grinder with barely any nose for scoring. Thank you for guaranteeing we don’t overpay him.
If Kovalchuk wasn’t an option, who would be your top options to pay free-agent prices to? Last I checked we needed 2 more forwards at least. Not Whitney, not Jokinen for me. Not sure who is available that fits the bill, really.
It’s only a 3-year deal.
Frolov for under 4.3
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I could live with that.
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jul 1, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Frolov + Versteeg is sort of Kovalchukish I guess.
I guess.
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yeah, offense, we needs it
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by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
But what if we added all three?
:smug:
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sexy times!
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Thing is that Versteeg’s 20 goals will likely come out of the minutes Stalberg would have played when he potted, say, 15. That’s not a big jump.
Kovalchuk would have been a 20+G jump over who he covers.
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by PPP on Jul 1, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
grumble grumble grumble
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Versteeg is gonna score 30, doy!
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by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Norm Ullman
Dude, people create narratives with STATS just as easily as these terms you seem to disdain. for instance. You say Stajan scored more, against tougher competition, and the stats say he hit more. Great. there’s your stats, your narrative.
I didn’t say Stajan hit more.
Colby was +6, Stajan -6. So who’s getting outscored?
You misunderstood what I wrote entirely. My point was that Armstrong plays soft minutes because he’s not good enough to play against the best players because if he does he would get outscored by the other team’s best players. Therefore, he doesn’t get the chance to lay his game-changing hit.
As for Stajan and Armstrong, one reason Armstrong is a + and Stajan is a minus is because one playes soft minutes (Armstrong) and the other plays tougher minutes (Stajan). At even strength, Stajan scores more than Armstrong.
Points/60 minutes of even strength
Stajan: 1.93
Armstrong: 1.53
Their career points are 239/472 for Stajan, versus 178/360 for Colby. So Stajan is clearly a better scorer? Hmmmm.
LOL in the five years since the lockout Stajan has outscored Armstrong 211-178 and in 3 of 5 years (one year he lost by 2 points) and Stajan was a Leaf while Armstrong had 3 years with the Penguins playing on Crosby’s wing.
And "soft minutes" as an average, tell you nothing about what happens in the 5 minutes per game against other top lines and defence.
Soft minutes refers to Quality of Competition.
Stajan: 0.068
Armstrong: 0.018
Quality of Team
Stajan: 0.022
Armstrong: -0.119
That’s good because at least when Armstrong was playing soft minutes he was playing with worse teammates.
Corsi relative to quality of competition
Stajan: 0.279
Armstrong: 0.046
So Stajan gets the puck moving in the right direction, against better players, much more than Armstrong does.
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LOL. 1) Armstrong’s not good enough to play against other teams best players, other than the Crosby years, which somehow aren’t being mentioned in your “quality of comp” and soft minutes talk. 2) Same with not comparing career stats (which show them to be about 1%-2% apart) but changing it to the last 5 years.
In short, you’ve got a narrative, and you’re pushing it through the numbers. I just think it’s a bit more open to question than you guys, who’ve made clear that you think Armstrong is less of a player than Stajan and of less value than Mitchell. Call me moron, but not too loud – but Burke’s clearly seen something too.
More generally on stats. i) Not all hits are equal – Phaneuf hits you, versus Kaberle hits you. We can’t really measure force/impact of hits, but there is a real, physical, on-ice difference. ii) Nor are all goals equal. If Christiano Ronaldo scores the 5th goal against you, it’s usually considered less important than the 1st or 2nd. Again, you can measure this, but it’s not conventionally presented, and is difficult to pick up during the dynamics of a game (like GWG’s.) iii) Nor – much as I like them – do average measures like Qcom and Corsi and such give us the whole picture. If I play against Crosby when the score is 1-1, that’s not the same as a minute against him at 5-1. Averages are necessary, but may not catch it all. That’s all.
This is not to be anti-stat, just to say, we can’t measure everything. and so, when we do measure things or pick out stats to present, let’s not pretend there’s not our own likes and dislikes coming into play, or imagine that a narrative isn’t being presented.
by not norm ullman on Jul 1, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if the fact that Armstrong has played soft minutes when he’s not on Crosby’s wing means anything? Probably not right?
And career stats over the last five years? Yeah, let’s go back 20 and including junior, bantam and peewee for all of their relevance.
Appeal to authority? Check.
If I play against Crosby when the score is 1-1, that’s not the same as a minute against him at 5-1.
Then prove that Armstrong plays tough minutes ever.
Here’s the difference: One narrative has facts and the other has ‘facts’.
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No – respectfully – I think you’re wrong on this, PPP. And not quite sure why you want to make this so black/white – you with all the FACTS, me scratching around only with my pathetic “facts.”
Over on the Free Agent Frenzy post, for instance, you guys were talking about how Armstrong will be outscored by Stajan and Jokinen, and thus, he deserves much less money. I think you know this isn’t right. Just to go over the obvious -
- A 3rd line guy plays what, 60% of the minutes of a 1st liner, right? Gets way less PP. Likely more PK. Is expected to spend time and energy playing beatdown on the other team’s D. Cycling their D til they drop. Out of that, you’d EXPECT them to score a lot less, maybe 30%-50% less, right?
- But if they do that job WELL, as a 3rd liner, you’d hope to see that they outscored the 3rd liners they faced by +5 to +10 over a year.
- You’d also expect that their energy would ALSO show up – but be hard to capture – in the performance of their 1st liners. (i.e. They beatdown the other defence, force penalties, etc.)
- So 1st liners like Stajan and Jokinen from last year need to outscore NOT guys playing 3rd-line, but the 1st liners they’re up against.
Result? A guy can score 40 points a year for you, and actually, FACTually, be more valuable to you – and worth more money – than a guy who scores 60. When they talk about players who do their “role” well, there’s objective weight behind that terminology.
All this to say, someone like Stajan may not be a winner EITHER when playing 1st versus 1st OR as a 3rd against 3rd (i.e. he may always show a -10 plus/minus), while a lower-scoring Armstrong can be a net value by getting a +10 on either line, even while scoring less than Stajan, right?
As for your other comments, when I do things like simply compare their career NHL numbers, you felt you had to change the measure to the last 5 years. Which is fine, but it’s not like I was using some bizarre measure, right? When I mention this, an the fact that it slightly tilted things more toward Stajan, you give me the line – “let’s use the last 20 years?” And start going on about “facts” as if I had misled somehow. What gives?
Same thing with the soft minutes. You were the one going on about soft minutes last year, fine. I just thought that surely looking at the fact that he played with Crosby showed that Colby’s career hasn’t JUST been as a soft minutes guy. Shorter – you say “prove” he played tough minutes, ever. I say – he played with Crosby. You want someone to go back and find the numbers from those years to see if anybody played Crosby’s line tough?
Your narrative has the facts, I only have “facts.” I donno why you’re arguing like that. I’m not arguing Armstrong is the 2nd coming, just that he may – even at $3 M – turn out to be a real net gain to the team.
Over and out, peace brother.
by not norm ullman on Jul 2, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
A 3rd line guy plays what, 60% of the minutes of a 1st liner, right? Gets way less PP. Likely more PK. Is expected to spend time and energy playing beatdown on the other team’s D. Cycling their D til they drop. Out of that, you’d EXPECT them to score a lot less, maybe 30%-50% less, right?
That’s an interesting question.
You could compare ES scoring rates/60 to see who Armstrong’s peers are. Eliminates PP/PK and puts scoring rates on comparable footing.
Armstrong’s pts/60 is 1.53, which puts him alongside Grabner, Stafford, Handzus and Brassard.
But if they do that job WELL, as a 3rd liner, you’d hope to see that they outscored the 3rd liners they faced by +5 to +10 over a year
I can’t separate out line match-ups. but at ES, when Armstrong was on the ice the team scored at 2.61G/60 and gave up 2.48G/60, so he was on the plus side of things, albeit barely.
A guy can score 40 points a year for you, and actually, FACTually, be more valuable to you – and worth more money – than a guy who scores 60. When they talk about players who do their "role" well, there’s objective weight behind that terminology.
I’m not sure you can draw that conclusion from the data. For example, Ovechkin’s differential is 2.76 while Armstrong’s is 0.13 (which puts him alongside Ryan Jones and Pascal Dupuis). Stajan, who I’m really not a fan of, was actually outscored at evens and has a goal differential (GAON/60) of -0.20
I hope Armstrong has a helluva year in Toronto, but the data isn’t in his favour. As for his contract, I’ve yet to see overpaying for bottom six players prove to be a smart move in the post-lockout NHL.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Thanks for this. Agreed, he’s no Ovie or Kovie. I’d just like to see our Bottom 6 make me feel that they were pushing the other team back, adding energy. A small net gain over Stajan is about what I’d expect (say, 10 goals a year.)
What I’m hopeful about is the fact that he knows the Schenns and Phaneuf, and is promoted as a character/energy/grit guy, added to the Toronto media coverage, will induce him to play at a higher level – more Wendel-like – rather than less. So maybe we get a net +15. We’ll see……
by not norm ullman on Jul 2, 2010 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Same thing with the soft minutes. You were the one going on about soft minutes last year, fine. I just thought that surely looking at the fact that he played with Crosby showed that Colby’s career hasn’t JUST been as a soft minutes guy. Shorter – you say "prove" he played tough minutes, ever. I say – he played with Crosby. You want someone to go back and find the numbers from those years to see if anybody played Crosby’s line tough?
I’m just going to go at this because the rest is just talking in circles but there is a reason Armstrong was moved off of Crosby’s wing and there’s a reason he played the 7th toughest minutes in Atlanta. Presumably, Atlanta is a team that some day the Leafs hope to be above in the standings no? In the meantime, they are getting a player off of their third line to improve them at a price that the team that had watched him for over 150 games decided was too expensive. That gives me 0 confidence.
As for your other comments, when I do things like simply compare their career NHL numbers, you felt you had to change the measure to the last 5 years.
Because going back further you were adding years to Stajan’s career that Armstrong didn’t play. The further you go back the more irrelevant data you are including. Going back to the Toskala example, it’s like when people pointed to pre-lockout seasons as a reason for why he could bounce back.
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by PPP on Jul 2, 2010 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I get that he’s coming from a poor team, and not one of their top lines, and that’s he’s not been a big scorer, and that it’s $3 M/year. All understood, and agreed with that this reduces confidence.
Now, here’s the question that makes me look to see if there’s a flip-side to this coin (and yes, I understand that there isn’t always a flip-side.)
Brian Burke did this deal.
For me, that says, “The deal is likely to carry a mix of factors, some of which are likely positive.”
I felt like people were harshing a bit too much, too quickly, on Colby – partly because they want Kovie. But while there ARE idiots and damn fools running NHL teams, Burke doesn’t strike me that way. If I take the pure negative case, Burke just blew $3M out his ass, all because he’s a Cherry’esque moron who believes a team of scrappers is the way to go. I don’t think he’s that dumb. So, assuming Burke’s not just an idiot, and not ignorant of stats, why would YOU say he got him?
by not norm ullman on Jul 2, 2010 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Could always be worse
We could have signed Jokinen…
For the same cap hit Jokinen scored 50pts…
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
but he doesnt have intangibles!
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Jul 1, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
If you are only basing everything on point totals, we should have kept Stajan…
by CancerousRocket on Jul 1, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m comparing him to Colby Armstrong.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
And the Jokinen re-signing in Calgary, would be the equivalent of the Leafs re-signing Toskala. It is a head scratcher.
by CancerousRocket on Jul 1, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Am Ihe only one thinking that Somebody needs to get on the phone with Darryl Sutter?
I mean as long as he’s still drinking you might as well try to pry Jiggy out of his hands. What’s the only thing better than 1 Jigy? 2 Jiggy’s
A bit of optimism.
There’s lots of negativity here and I’m an eternal optimist…a rare breed for a Leafs fan.
You can talk about QUALCOMP all you want, but how about SDOMP? That would be Soul-Destroying play comparisons. Let’s face it, if you’re playing in a place like Atlanta, that wears on your life outlook and your play. No amount of Gone With the Wind re-enactments or bars will save your outlook on life.
Three million a year isn’t great for a guy like Armostrong, but it’s not the end of the world either. It’s “meh”. Some players get rejuvenated by a change of scenery and this could be such a case. I know, I know, we’re all hard-boiled cynics here in Leaftopia, but could it be that Armstrong puts a solid 45-55 points, maybe a bit more with increased ice time? On top of that, he has the ability to shift a game with a borderline vicious hit every now and then.
Think of it this way, if you had been traded to Atlanta, Florida or Ottawa, would you be having a career season or would you take stock in your life and saying:
“I’m a hockey player…in Atlanta/Florida/Ottawa. This is as bad as it gets, short of Chemmy making a Chick Tract out of me.”
Burke is likely going to play a lot of young kids with our roster. You can look to Armstrong as being a “young veteran presence” on our room. Would it really hurt to give him a chance to prove himself in Big Blue? Really?
After year two of his contract, let’s take a hard look at his performance. If it is indeed the stale bagel that looked so promising at first on that grocery store shelf, to be married with some cream cheese but instead forgotten and discarded like so many other impulse buys, then we can burn him at the stake like so many others…but let’s give the guy a chance.
Or we can just run him out of town on a rail after spending $175.00 on our new Colby Armstrong jerseys.
by BesterThanYesterday on Jul 1, 2010 5:41 PM EDT reply actions
I’m all for optimism, but I prefer realism.
Sure, I would love for Armstrong to come in here and have a career year. But you can’t just say “this guy will get a new lease on life playing in Toronto, we should expect him to outperform all his previous career bests”. Armstrong very well might get 2nd line minutes, but he’s not exactly playing with world beaters here either.
Also, I haven’t heard a ton of people actually bemoaning Armstrong, just that he’s getting overpaid. And he is. And in a cap world, it’s very relevant.
more minutes than in atlanta? lol I don’t think he’ll get more. And I cant remember the last leaf we brought in as a FA that overachieved…… Can anyone help me on this? i’m thinkinggg… honestly nothing comes to mind.
Kool as KuKumbers Kulemin.... I don't believe in C's, just like Ron Wilson (new signature under construction)
To those who say this means we can't get Kovalchuk
Here’s what the roster probably looks like on opening night if Burke doesn’t make any more moves:
2010-11 TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Phil Kessel ($5.400m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.725m) / Kris Versteeg ($3.083m)
Colby Armstrong ($3.000m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($2.900m) / * Nikolai Kulemin ($1.750m)
* Christian Hanson ($1.000m) / Nazem Kadri ($1.720m) / Colton Orr ($1.000m)
Brayden Irwin ($0.900m) / Luca Caputi ($0.833m) / Fredrik Sjostrom ($0.750m)
Mike Brown ($0.537m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)
Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m) / Francois Beauchemin ($3.800m)
Jeff Finger ($3.500m) / Luke Schenn ($2.975m)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.800m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.595m)
GOALTENDERS
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($6.000m) / Jonas Gustavsson ($1.350m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
ROSTER: 23; CAP:$59.4m; PAYROLL: $61.869m; CAP ROOM: $1.986m BONUSES: $6.235m
But, assuming Burke trades Kaberle, Grabvoski and Finger, doesn’t resign Hanson or Kulimen, or trades their rights and in some combination of these moves and moving around low-round future draft picks acquires Savard, he still can sign Kovalchuk for 9 million per season and fill out the defense with the signing of a UFA for 1 million per season. This would leave the roster looking like this on opening night.
2010-11 TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
- Ilya Kovalchuk ($9.000m) / * Marc Savard ($4.007m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Kris Versteeg ($3.083m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.725m) / Colby Armstrong ($3.000m)
Colton Orr ($1.000m) / Nazem Kadri ($1.720m) / Brayden Irwin ($0.900m)
Luca Caputi ($0.833m) / Fredrik Sjostrom ($0.750m) / Mike Brown ($0.537m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.512m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)
Francois Beauchemin ($3.800m) / Luke Schenn ($2.975m) - UFA Defenceman ($1.000m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($0.800m)
Keith Aulie ($0.733m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.595m)
GOALTENDERS
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($6.000m) / Jonas Gustavsson ($1.350m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
ROSTER: 23; CAP:$59.4m; PAYROLL: $63.722m; CAP ROOM: $0.133m BONUSES: $6.410m
If you would rather see Kadri in the AHL instead of playing on the 3rd line, a UFA center can be signed for 1 million per and Kadri’s cap hit when he joins the team in 2011-2012 is absorbed by letting Giguere walk or resigning him at a far lower per year cap hit and letting Sojostrom walk. Having a 1 million per year center rather than Kadri also allows us to sign Kovalchuk for up to 9.5 million per season and leaves the roster looking as such.
2010-11 TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
- Ilya Kovalchuk ($9.500m) / * Marc Savard ($4.007m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Kris Versteeg ($3.083m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.725m) / Colby Armstrong ($3.000m)
Colton Orr ($1.000m) / * UFA Center ($1.000m) / Brayden Irwin ($0.900m)
Luca Caputi ($0.833m) / Fredrik Sjostrom ($0.750m) / Mike Brown ($0.537m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.512m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)
Francois Beauchemin ($3.800m) / Luke Schenn ($2.975m) - UFA Defenceman ($1.000m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($0.800m)
Keith Aulie ($0.733m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.595m)
GOALTENDERS
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($6.000m) / Jonas Gustavsson ($1.350m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
ROSTER: 23; CAP:$59.4m; PAYROLL: $63.502m; CAP ROOM: $0.353m BONUSES: $5.560m
That sound you just heard was Thrasher fans washing their hands of Armstrong.
Hope he enjoys being in a “real hockey city”.
"It's only knock and know-all, but I like it" Genesis, 1974
by Black ice in Alabama on Jul 1, 2010 10:07 PM EDT reply actions
I didn’t know sour grapes were in season at this time of year.
Happy Canada day to you.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jul 1, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
And happy July 4th to you.
And to show no hard feelings:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRvY-I9pNpI
"It's only knock and know-all, but I like it" Genesis, 1974
by Black ice in Alabama on Jul 1, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
EDIT:
It being your Canada Day and all that.
"It's only knock and know-all, but I like it" Genesis, 1974
by Black ice in Alabama on Jul 1, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a better signing that Stajan at 3.5M/4yrs Yes/NO?
Contains the correct levels of Truculence....
yes
because its less and shorter.
but neither player is getting their team a single step closer to a cup
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
no one player on his own will make any team closer to a cup. It is either said player is a productive piece of the puzzle that gets you the cup or he’s not. I wouldn’t say just yet that Armstrong is the latter.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Warning: long-winded
Here’s the thing:
Teams don’t pick FA names out of a hat. Players are specifically targeted early in the year, and the team’s Pro Scouts spend the entire year watching those players. That’s their job.
Any stats we have — they have also. A lot of good stuff has been recited here, none of which is news to the team that signed the player.
However. They signed him anyway. Not just because the stats showed he had an average year last year. Rather, they saw something in his game they liked.
The Stempniak comparisons are laughable. It’s as though people have only seen one of the two play (and I’m starting to wonder if the only time some people have seen Armstrong play is the couple games the Thrashers played against the Leafs). Completely different styles. Completely different players. Completely different roles. Completely different impacts within those roles.
The stat sheets don’t tell you that Stajan played on the periphery and avoided the danger zones at all costs. They don’t tell you that Grabovski likes to carry the puck through five players or that Jason Blake likes to draw circles in the ice with his skates. More importantly, they don’t tell you how much time a guy spends in front of the net, the percentage of puck battles he wins, or the emotional impact he creates off a well-timed, well-executed physical play. And they don’t take into account the immeasurables — such as spirit, effort, effect on momentum. Such things are not accounted for, yet are key to a player’s impact on his team.
In the case of Armstrong, I would argue that what he brings to the table are the immeasurables. You’re right about the measurable stats — and what I would say is, were the Pro Scouts going off those only, there is no way the team would have signed him. But they did. They set an upper limit to which they were willing to spend, and spent it willingly, fully aware of every stat you’ve listed here.
Now why would that be? Could it be those immeasurables that can only be evaluated by watching a guy play, and by analyzing the tape? Dare I say the dreaded word, “intangibles”? (Goodness I hate that word, it’s so overused.)
Now, don’t get me wrong, I am not in any way shape or form knocking the use of advanced stats. They are a wonderful, practical, extraordinarily useful tool. But, as another commenter so astutely put it, they are but one tool in the toolbox, and do not (and cannot) complete the picture of a player’s full ability to impact a game within his role. I won’t say the tale of the tape is more important; but I will say it is equally as important.
That’s my take on the player, to address those ripping on his abilities and the absurd Stempniak/Blake/etc comparisons.
As for the contract itself … yeah …
Prior to the opening of FA, the general sentiment seemed to be that Armstrong would likely go somewhere in the range of 2m to 2.5m, depending on the number of bidders. I would imagine we can all agree on that.
Now, as mentioned above, teams identify the players they are most interested based primarily on the feedback of the Pro Scouts, in accordance with the philosophy of the General Manager. And in most cases, an upper limit is set in terms of how much the team is willing to spend. I think we can all agree on that too.
Armstrong made an interesting comment when TSN interviewed him, that the Leafs offered the most money. That tells me that if the rumours of the expected bidding to go to 2.5m on the high end were in fact true, the Leafs upped the ante to ensure they got their man. Hence the 3m price tag at the end of the day. That’s pure speculation, I am well aware … but the logic works.
Here’s where it gets tricky, at least, for me. As much as I respect a team for getting a player they clearly had high on their wishlist from the outset (again, they’ve spent the better part of the year watching their anticipated “shortlist” closely), I would say that 3m as an upper limit on what they were willing to spend was, yes, probably a bit too high. I have a feeling that if he’d signed at 2.5m, this conversation would be far more muted as we’d all be busy talking about how he produces more than Malholtra. Unfortunately, that is not the case and here we are. Understandably so.
But, the flipside is, FAs do come with a premium. It’s the same story every year, and by that very token we shouldn’t really be surprised he was overpaid. Why should this year be any different than July 1sts past?
So … in short summation after getting all that off my chest:
Do I like the player? Yes.
Do I trust the scouting staff has done its homework? Yes. They’ve watched him all year and I’m not so arrogant to even entertain the notion I might know more than they do.
Do I like the money? No. He is definitely getting overpaid. Few will argue otherwise.
Do I understand why the dollar figure went as high as it did? Yes. Nature of the beast.
Overall am I good with the deal? Yes. Only because it is 3 years. Any more term, or any more dollars, and I’m ripping it with the rest of you. However, 3m in and of itself is not a cap killer … 26m-plus (or, 44% of the cap) tied up in 7 defenders is.
"One day, we'll be perfect." - The Tao of Stieb
by GarrettBauman on Jul 2, 2010 3:43 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Army's new nickname to me will now be Mittens:
Because everyone dropped the gloves and got real catty talking about him.
I agree with others & above. Slight overpayment. But he will be effective at what he does.
I don’t think its a cap killer because he’s the THIRD highest paid forward on the team. If 3rd liners like Bolland, Pahlsson, Chris Clark, Madden, Malholtra, Pandalfo, and others can get in the 2.5+ range, then I’m not too worried about 3 for Armstrong.
The Leaf issues are in 6m for GIguere (which was not our signing and is coming off the books next year), and 26m on defence. Phaneuf is overpaid at 6.5m but again that was not our signing (plus Calgary had to overpay to “buy” 2 years of free agency); Finger was a disaster by old man Fletch and will be dealt with via AHL demotion; Kaberle should turn into a top 6 forward if Burke has his way.
Kulemin can still be signed for the 2.25-2.5 he’s rumoured. And JFM can come back at 650k-750k if they want. We also have to assume that this is Grabovski’s last kick at the can. If he doesn’t meet expectations, then demotion/trade/KHL and his 2.9m is gone anyway — if he does what we hope and reach the 55-65pt level then we are all very happy with his top-6, sub 3m salary.
In 4am-speak, I’m basically saying everyone should give a ‘whoo-sah’ and realize this guy will not kill our cap at all because there are so many other cap issues that will work themselves out in the immediate-to-near future (<12mo).
by Death_By_Leafs on Jul 2, 2010 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re such a Leaf apologist :)
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Someone is going to ask
“How come Atlanta didn’t win, if Armstrong has all these immeasurables?”
Easy. It’s a team game, and Atlanta wasn’t a very good team.
“What are your expectations for Armstrong?”
Around 15 goals, 30 points - right in line with his career averages. A good GVT compared to the rest of those with comparable roles on the team (eg his linemates, the bottom six group, etc). Hopefully a positive +/ but we all know how subjective that stat is.
“Do you really think he’ll have an impact?”
Within his role, yes. He won’t put the team over the top by himself, but that’s not why he was acquired. The Leafs have no illusions of him improving their offense to any great degree — it’s not why he was signed. But teams do need players of his ilk, and he is a step in the right direction toward getting back into the playoffs, whether his contributions show up on the stat line or not.
"One day, we'll be perfect." - The Tao of Stieb
Not sure why that part got crossed out. Must’ve hit a keyboard shortcut. Damned laptop. Fact that it’s 4am might have something to do with it too :)
"One day, we'll be perfect." - The Tao of Stieb
by GarrettBauman on Jul 2, 2010 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions
He's overpaid by about $500 grand.
Not cap-crippling by any stretch of the imagination. That’s my only concern about contracts and it being a fairly reasonable term, I can live with.
Just be thankful we didn’t do a Vancouver and slap a NTC on that.
It’ll be hard for him to prove his worth as a $3M player but hey, Dustin Byfuglien was a huge piece of crap in the regular season and was arguably one of the main reasons Chicago won a Cup. ‘Intangibles,’ is a disgustingly overused word but if the Leafs ever make the playoffs, you just know this guy will be a difference maker.
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