Instant Reaction (and Kaberle implications): Now with Forwards!

We always sit back and laugh at bad contracts after the fact (or in the case of the Jokinen and Boogard signings, as they happen), once they've proven to be overpayments.  I thought I'd go on record with some of the major signings, so I can check back in a year or two and see if I've made a fool of myself.  This will either teach me that I'm an idiot, or become Exhibit "A" in my application to become the Leafs' newest deputy assistant to the associate GM's secretary.

I only had time today to look at five of the most high profile D-men signings, and four of the forwards.  My conclusion: (1) Michalek is the only D contract I like; (2) Steen is the only F contract I kind of like; and (3) the Devils desperately need Kaberle but currently lack both the assets and the cap space to acquire him.

At the suggestion of Phaneuf's Rock Collection, I'm fanposting this from my comment in the FTBs.

Salaries from capgeek, TOI from nhl.com, GVT from Awad.  When I talk about "soft" or "hard" minutes and performance in light of those, I'm generally referring to the corsi QoC and corsi rel QoC from behindthenet.ca

Defencemen

Sergei Gonchar, Senators 3 yrs, $5.5MM (36): Aging and injury prone (87 GP last 2 years). GVT/82 last two years of 17.0, so still very effective when healthy. "Efficient salary" (GVT/82 divided by 3.5) of $4.8MM. Plays 2nd pair minutes at EV against modest competition with middling to poor corsi stats. Leads team in PP and PK TOI. This may work out well for Ottawa for a year, perhaps even two, but is almost certain to be a millstone before it is over given Gonchar’s age and injury history. A bad overpayment on a team that is not good enough to contend and needs to get younger, not older. They are the Leafs of 4-5 years ago; painful as it is they should be trading Alfredsson for a king’s ransom and re-building with youth.

Paul Martin, Penguins, 5 yrs, $5MM (29): still fairly young, solid two-way performer. GVT/82 of 11.8, so he’s a legit first pair guy. Efficient salary of $3.4MM. Looking at 2008-09 rather than injury shortened 2009-10, played against decent competition, but benefited from offensive zonestarts. Solid corsis. Team leader in TOI at ES, PK and PP. Was much more sheltered this year on return from injury, but no reason forearm fracture should not heal fully. This is an overpayment; Goligoski and Letang should be able to fill in for Gonchar offensively, and Michalek covers the defensive aspect. This team is now virtually out of cap space and desperately short of offensive talent beyond their three centres. I would have gone shopping for a bargain veteran like Ray Whitney or Vinnie Prospal. Alex Steen also would not have been a bad option.

Zbynek Michalek, Penguins, 5 yrs, $4MM (27): Very solid defensive D-man with some offensive abilities. GVT/82 of 5.4, durable. Efficient salary of $1.6MM, but this undervalues defensive specialists. Plays tough minutes with weak teammates; excellent corsi rel QoC. Leads team in PK, ES and total TOI, and 4th in PP TOI. Basically, he’s a slightly better version of Mike Komisarek in virtually every way; better offensively, better defensively, better contract, more durable. A bit of an overpayment as most UFAs are, but fills a definite need for Pittsburgh.

Dan Hamhuis, Canucks, 6 yrs, $4.5MM (27): This is a guy who benefited from playing behind Weber and Suter, who took the tough minutes. GVT/yr of 7.6, and he’s durable. Efficient salary of $2.2MM. Surprisingly for a guy with a defensive reputation, enjoyed the softest zonestart on his team. Led the team in PK TOI, 3rd in ES and total. The problem with this signing is that he’s now being paid like a top pair guy, which he is not. Basically they’ve replaced Willie Mitchell with a guy making $1MM more and not noticeably better, and they still don’t have a stud D-man. This is a team that should have overpaid for Gonchar given the talent in place.

Anton Volchenkov, Devils, 6 yrs, $4.25MM (27): Another tough minutes guy who played with weak teammates, with excellent corsi stats. GVT/82 of 4.6, efficient salary of $1.3, but throw that out for a guy who plays tough minutes like Volchenkov. He really protected guys like Campoli, Karlsson and even Kuba. No offensive game to speak of, trailed only Phillips in PK and ES TOI. On the one hand, he’s generally acknowledged to be a better version of Komisarek, and is making less (though for a longer term). On the other hand, that’s still an awful lot for a one-dimensional D-man, and an awfully long term for one who is injury prone and plays a very physical game. This is also baffling cap management for a team whose top 4 D-men make $13.5MM and last year had only 60 points combined (only 10 more than Gonchar posted in 62 games). Andy Greene is the only guy with any semblance of puck-moving skills, and he’s only had one good year. Burdened with terrible contracts like Rolston and Arnott, with a seriously aging roster, and with a gaping hole for an offensive D-man, this was also a much more logical destination for Gonchar.  Interestingly, In Lou We Trust has a very similar take.

New Jersey desperately needs Kaberle now, but I do not see how they have the pieces to get him; other than the presumably untouchable Zach Parise and Travis Zajac, their only valuable assets are Tedenby and Josefson, who don’t fit Burke’s demand for Top 6-ready players.  Moreover, they don't have cap space for Kaberle and I would not want a single one of their roster players back other than Parise or Zajac.  I think there has to be more to come here.

Forwards

Colby Armstrong, Leafs, 3 yrs, $3MM (27): I'm on the record as falling somewhere between disliking and loathing this deal  For a supposed "agitator"/grinder, he actually plays relatively soft minutes and is not noteworthy on the PK.  His only notable offensive season, with all of 40 points, was accomplished on the back of a flukish 15.6% s%.  We all mocked Calgary for paying Matt Stajan $3.5MM, but he's a much better player than Colby Armstrong by any measure: in the past two years Stajan has a GVT/82 of 8.3 vs. Armstrong's 6.4.  Their efficient salaries are $2.4MM vs. $1.8MM.  Stajan also played tougher minutes and even registered only five less hits.  No one would call Stajan a physical player, but the word coming out on Armstrong is that he is not a consistent hitter, he just makes the occasional youtube worthy blindside hit.  Finally, every statistical measure says Stajan is a decent 2nd line C; Armstrong by all accounts is a 3rd liner W.  I'm not defending the Stajan deal, I'm just saying that we all mocked it, and the Armstrong deal is probably worse. Bottom line: Colby Armstrong is worth maybe 1 or 2 wins per year.  It might make sense to overpay him if you're already an elite team and just need to round out your bottom 6.  It's hard to see the logic when we have only one elite offensive player, as we have just made it $3MM harder to find the second we have been looking for since the days of Gilmour to Andreychuk.  

Olli Jokinen, Flames, 2 yrs, $3MM (31): Okay, here's where you all will think I've lost my mind.  First of all, I do not think Sutter should be signing veterans.  This is an aging, non-playoff team that needs to trade probably two or more of Iginla, Regehr, Langkow and Kipper, get an infusion of young blood, get under the cap, get some high picks, and move on.  Olli Jokinen does not serve that end.  However, if you refuse to accept reality like Sutter and want to contend now, this is buying low on a guy who is still only 31 and averaged 54 points (9.3 GVT/82, $2.7MM efficient salary) over what was perceived as a disastrous two year stretch.  Jokinen plays soft minutes and does not make his teammates better, but if you put him on the second line against softer competition he's almost a guarantee for 50 points.  Not bad for $3MM, particularly given that it's only a 2 year stretch.  For what it's worth, I also think $1.7MM for one year on Tanguay is a low risk, big upside gamble on a guy who posted 0.8 PPG only a year ago.  

Matt Cullen, Wild, 3 yrs, $3.5MM (33): This is a tough one.  By all accounts a solid 2C, Cullen strikes me as overrated.  He's never reached 50 points, he played very soft minutes last year, though he did play a lot of minutes in all situations with both Carolina and Ottawa.  His GVT/82 of 8.5 (efficient salary $2.4MM) is solid, but that hides a big drop last year.  For a 33 year old, that has to be a concern.  My biggest problem with this signing is it doesn't solve Minnesota's problem, which is that they have a bunch of solid forwards (8 making $2.33MM to $5MM), but no game breakers.  Traditionally a team that struggles to score and is around the playoff bubble, this kind of signing will help keep them in exactly the same place.  

Alexander Steen, Blues, 4 yrs, $3.362MM (26): Here's a deal I can get behind.  Consistent with the two-way play he displayed in Toronto, Steen played the toughest minutes of Blues forwards, had terrible teammates, and still managed to post solid corsi numbers and 24-23-47.  He was 3rd in PP TOI, 5th in SH TOI, 7th overall.  In short, he played tougher minutes and had better production than Armstrong.  GVT/82 over the last two years, even accounting for his nightmarish 08-09, was 7.26, for an efficient salary of $2.1MM.  If you look at just last year, those numbers are 12.66 and $3.6MM, which in fact undervalues him given the tough minutes he played.  Steen's a bit of an overpayment but he really seems to play an important role for that team and could turn out to be a bargain if he just continues last year's level of play; at 26, it's also possible he improves on it.