What do you think this is...some kind of goal scoring competition?
by birky on Aug 18, 2010 3:12 PM EDT
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Chemmy is smart!
What, exactly, have the changes over the summer meant for the Leafs offense? The Leafs finished tied for 26th last season in goals scored. Will they be able to improve upon their 214 goal output? Depending on how many players step up their game, yes. But I don't think it will be significant. More after the jump.
First of all, I'm not getting into any crazy advanced stats here. This isn't meant to be that in depth. Obviously, if someone wants to take it to the next level, have at it. So here's what I did. I compiled a list of the current Leafs roster for the upcoming season, including their games played and goal totals.
Here's what it looks like:
| Player | GP | G |
| Kessel | 70 | 30 |
| Versteeg | 79 | 20 |
| Kulemin | 78 | 16 |
| Armstrong | 79 | 15 |
| Grabovski | 59 | 10 |
| Bozak | 37 | 8 |
| Kaberle | 82 | 7 |
| Mitchell | 60 | 6 |
| Beauchemin | 82 | 5 |
| Schenn | 79 | 5 |
| Orr | 82 | 4 |
| Gunnarsson | 43 | 3 |
| Sjostrom | 65 | 3 |
| Phaneuf | 81 | 12 |
| Hanson | 31 | 2 |
| Caputi | 23 | 2 |
| Komisarek | 34 | 0 |
| Brown | 75 | 6 |
| Total: | 154 |
(Note: This is my estimate of what the opening night roster could look like.)
Next, I extrapolated each player's goal total over a full 82 games.
| Player | GP | G | G per 82 |
| Kessel | 70 | 30 | 35 |
| Versteeg | 79 | 20 | 21 |
| Kulemin | 78 | 16 | 17 |
| Armstrong | 79 | 15 | 16 |
| Grabovski | 59 | 10 | 14 |
| Bozak | 37 | 8 | 18 |
| Kaberle | 82 | 7 | 7 |
| Mitchell | 60 | 6 | 8 |
| Beauchemin | 82 | 5 | 5 |
| Schenn | 79 | 5 | 5 |
| Orr | 82 | 4 | 4 |
| Gunnarsson | 43 | 3 | 6 |
| Sjostrom | 65 | 3 | 4 |
| Phaneuf | 81 | 12 | 12 |
| Hanson | 31 | 2 | 5 |
| Caputi | 23 | 2 | 7 |
| Komisarek | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| Brown | 75 | 6 | 7 |
| Total: | 154 | 190 |
As you can see, a full season from someone like Bozak has a significant impact on the team's GF. However, this bit tells us more. First, this team would have finished dead last in the NHL in goals forced last season. In fact, it would have been the worst offensive output by a team since the lockout. I realize this technique isn't perfect, and the results may have looked different with new players in a new system, new linemates, etc. But for the most part, that's speculation. Either way, this team would probably have scored fewer goals than the 214 the Leafs put up last season.
Now I'm going to be optimistic:
I think the Leafs can improve on their goal scoring by at least 10% next season. That of course, assumes the all 18 skaters stay healthy for an entire 82 games. Not every player will score an extra 10% mind you, but I think it will average out. That means instead of scoring 190 goals, the Leafs score 209. Kessel sniffs 40, Versteeg 25, Bozak and Kulemin 20.
Now, I know some of you are a little more optimistic than others, so I ran the totals for a 20% increase in scoring as well. At that level, the Leafs could potentially have five twenty goal scorers.
Here's what the final numbers look like:
| Player | GP | G | G per 82 | G with 10% ^ | G with 20% ^ |
| Kessel | 70 | 30 | 35 | 39 | 42 |
| Versteeg | 79 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 |
| Kulemin | 78 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| Armstrong | 79 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| Grabovski | 59 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| Bozak | 37 | 8 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| Kaberle | 82 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Mitchell | 60 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Beauchemin | 82 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Schenn | 79 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Orr | 82 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Gunnarsson | 43 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Sjostrom | 65 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Phaneuf | 81 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| Hanson | 31 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Caputi | 23 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Komisarek | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brown | 75 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Total: | 154 | 190 | 209 | 228 |
(I don't think I did, but let me know if I skewed these or something)
A 10% increase in goal output still leaves the Leafs in the bottom three of the Eastern Conference. A 20% increase puts them in the top seven. Quite the difference.
If you like Chemmy and think the Leafs average a SV% around .910 and average shots faced per game is 29.8 (as it was last year), then the Leafs should allow something around 221 goals next year. That puts the Buds around 5th in the Eastern Conference. If the Leafs don't improve their goal scoring, or a long term injury were to happen to say, Phil Kessel, the Leafs won't come close to the playoffs. If the Leafs escape major injury and get that 10% boost in scoring, they have a chance.
20%? PLAYOFFS!!!1
Conclusion: If the Leafs aren't going to make a move for a top-6 forward, they have to improve their scoring output by, at least, 10%. And any significant injury to Phil Kessel will scuttle our season.
One more thing. This is one of the reasons I think Kadri needs to be on this team. Even if he only scores 15 goals, it could be the difference in playoffs or no playoffs. It's that touch & go right now.
PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.
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Pythagorean:
190 GF 221 GA – 77 pts (29th last year)
209 GF 221 GA – 86 pts (22nd last year)
228 GF 221 GA – 94 pts (13th last year, playoffs)
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Just whipped this up:
Direct link: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/416892/pythagchart.JPG
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by Chemmy on Aug 18, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 9 recs
i like the colours
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Aug 18, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah, they’re just confusing. Goals against is the column on the left, Goals for is the row up top.
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It's a Scoring Trouble Rainbow!!!!
oh my god, so intense!
Can it before I drive this truculence through your faceulence and put you in an ambulance.
by Brunswick Bruiser on Aug 18, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
good write up
I think that, beyond goal scoring, an old adage will prove impossibly true for the Leafs in that they will live or die by their special teams.
Special teams that were both equally awful last season.
This is my signature.
by blurr1974 on Aug 18, 2010 1:15 PM EDT reply actions
Powerplays son
Last year the league average was 305 PP opportunities and 55.5 PP goals for a PP% of 18.2%.
The Leafs had 309 PP opportunities and scored 44 PP goals for a PP% of 14.25%.
So right there, if they have an average PP they’ll score an additional 11 goals, moving them up to 221 GF. Then we’d only need 230 GA to be on the playoff bubble which I think a better PK and no Toskala will most definitely remedy.
When I read the nickname Testicula, the first thing that popped into my head was a vampiristic scrotum that can only be killed with a silver cross driven through the vas deferens.
hmm, just saying it out loud, a 20% goal scoring increase sounds like a lofty target. But looking at how many goals each player would have to score to attain such a boost it seems pretty plausible
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 18, 2010 1:19 PM EDT reply actions
That’s what I was thinking too. It doesn’t seem crazy to think that Kessel, Versteeg, Kulemin, Bozak, and Grabbo can all score at least 20 goals next season, Dion should be good for at least 15.
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes.)
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Aug 18, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
If you factor in the TOI change for Versteeg (so, even before the QTeam), there’s no reason he shouldn’t break 25g, short of injury…
Agree, I was just setting that as the floor.
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes.)
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Aug 18, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
yup, the only totals I am really skeptical about are Armstrong with 19 and Orr with 5, but then even with those brought down to realistic totals like 15 and 3 that’s only 6 goals, which could probably be made up with say a Kadri in the line up or even spread out among other players
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 18, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
who knows what a guy like mueller might even bring, darkhorses, they are there.
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Aug 18, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
looking at Versteeg, his 08-09 season might be what we can expect of him. He averaged just over 17 mins of ice time, and racked up 15% of his points on the PP. as far as shifts go, at even strength he spent a lot of time on Toews wing with either Byfuglien or Kane playing opposite wing.
That said, he was still pretty green, first full season in the NHL, and you can see his points fade down the stretch. He did manage 22 goals and 53 points, so 25 is nowhere near outside the realm of possibility for him.
This is my signature.
by blurr1974 on Aug 18, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Um, I think you forgot Lebda.
Now with 25% fewer operable limbs.
by Sergei Puckizin on Aug 18, 2010 2:02 PM EDT reply actions
I only chose the 18 skaters I thought would be in the lineup. No Finger, Lebda, or 13th forward. Remember, these projections assume all players play 82 games.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
BUT
if you factor in Lebda’s projected goals over an 82 game season, with a 10% bump instead of 209 you get…(let’s see, carry the 1…) 211.
oh.
This is my signature.
by blurr1974 on Aug 18, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha! You factored in his one goal?
Now with 25% fewer operable limbs.
by Sergei Puckizin on Aug 18, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to talk about rounding, but i see now that you carried over the decimal places but reported only integers.
I’m also not entirely sold on the PK holding out enough to get you to 221 GA, I’d expect closer to 230, which is still a very respectable number.
On the Mike Weber bandwagon.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
What’s nice about the graph is that it highlights the real concern, which is not goal scoring but goal differential.
So if the Leafs can’t score, they’d better learn how to defend.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
Now in year 44 of the 42-year saga.
See: Bruins, Boston. See also: Sabres, Buffalo.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 18, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, to clarify, Sabres more fall under “If you can’t score, you better learn how to defend…and if you can’t do that, find an amazing goalie.”
PHX too lived by such law.
Also, to a limited extent, NJ.
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 18, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
Since our defense is “amongst the best in the league”, then it has to be our goalie.
I for one feel much better about that this season.
In Burke We Trust
I’ve heard that "amongst the best in the league" bit. I’d like to see it in practice.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
Now in year 44 of the 42-year saga.
Pretty much every time that statement about or D is said it should be followed by (on paper).
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 18, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
For the most part, you need a positive +/- to get into the playoffs, but not always.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
*
*"not always" applicable in Eastern Conference only.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 18, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
In all fairness, the Sabres were 10th in goal scoring last year (4th in the East.) They just scored most their goals against teams nobody watches (20 goals against the lightning!)
On the Mike Weber bandwagon.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
How’d they score 5 goals/game against Tampa? Damn.
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 18, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
UH OH
SOMEBODY DIDN’T FOLLOW RULE #5
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D-D-D-D-Don’t quote him regulations. He co-chaired the committee that reviewed the recommendation to revise the colour of the book that regulation’s in. They kept it grey.
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes.)
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Aug 18, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I had a great time pointing that out.
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19 goals from Armstrong? birky, i’m getting tired of your ridiculous optimism, why can’t you try to be more realistic for once?
just f-in with you man – glad to see you on the optimism express! 20% Playoffs!!!!!!1
Yesterday is dead, but not my memory.
What if Hanson scores 10 and Caputi scores 15?
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If Caputi scores 15 I’ll throw a parade in my living room for him.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Pictures or it won’t have happened.
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 18, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
CAPUTI GOAL WATCH 2010: ACTIVATED
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 18, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
remember to get this page archived at some website so he can’t delete his comment later to get out of it. :)
On the Mike Weber bandwagon.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Archive?
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 18, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
If Caputi scores 15 you are never allowed to bad mouth an italian again!
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
how about Mussolini?
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 18, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
fair enough
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Let’s start with the parade, okay?
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 18, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Forget the parade
I like my stipulation better
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
He’ll need to score 50 before I even THINK of that.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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attaboy
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 18, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
How many of the current leafs have been healthy enough to play the full 82 games in prior seasons?
In 2009-10, only 3 Leafs hit 82GP; In 2008-09, only 2 did it.
I have an easier time swallowing an across the board 20% increase in output than I do in the balance of the roster avoiding injuries.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Also, one of those people was Colton Orr.
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes.)
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Aug 18, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
True
However, there is an argument to be made that whoever replaces the injured player would at least provide SOME production… perhaps not as much as our top scorers if they’re the one that goes down.
Replacing 82 by a lesser number is just as reckless a pro-rated model as a full schedule. Bit of a grey area, but probably not significant enough to dismiss the findings entirely.
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 18, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
However, there is an argument to be made that whoever replaces the injured player would at least provide SOME production
If there are injuries to the few goal scorers this team has, there will be a big difference between SOME production and a 10 to 20% increase.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
If Kessel plays less than 70 games we’re* getting another lottery pick.
- The Boston Bruins
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Luckily for you, he already got mono.
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 18, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
planing on getting it and making out with him?
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 18, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
NO I DID NOT THINK THAT WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 18, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
although…
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 18, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh
you conveniently left out the rest of my quote.
whoever replaces the injured player would at least provide SOME production… perhaps not as much as our top scorers if they’re the one that goes down.
Obviously if Kessel goes down, production takes a nose dive. If Armstrong goes down, and Kadri brought up, who’s to say there is any drop in production? Of course Kadri, D’Amigo, Mueller production can only be estimated based on conversion rates of their previous leagues…
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 18, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, wasn’t trying to be clever or underhanded, but the point remains – production will dive like a Buffalo Sabre – and it’s not a matter of “perhaps”
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Ya your point is pretty clear, if we lose any of our scorers we’re boned unless our goalies get shutouts every night.
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 18, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
That was kind of my point. The Leafs would need to increase goal totals by 20% and stay healthy — ie not terribly likely.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
Every year since the lookout, the most annoying media theme has been “who will score for the Leafs?”
After six seasons, they may have finally stumbled on to a legitimate question.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
All I’m holding on to here is the projections are depressed because current Leafs, for the most part, were playing lesser roles last year behind Hagman, Poni, Stajan, Stempniak, etc. Hopefully the 10-20% boost will come from being placed in more prominent roles. It would be interesting to run projections based on post-deadline stats. Small sample size obviously, but interesting nonetheless.
I’d be thrilled with 214 goals again this year quite frankly. I’m expecting the big improvement to come in GA.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 18, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Might be better to run it as GF/60 with each player calculated at their post-Phaneuf trade TOI and adjusted for avg. GP.
I too will be thrilled if some sort of goal scoring by committee approach works…
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
That would be very interesting. And much more accurate than my method.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
You’d also be able to use Gabe Desjardin’s equivalents for the likes of Kadri, Caputi and others…
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Yep. I thought about it, even looked up the equivalencies. Just didn’t want to spend too much time since I wrote this at work. Main thing was getting the over-arching issue across.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
It’s possible to get a pretty clear idea if you use more advanced metrics to predict production, but the more complicated it gets, the most assumptions the analysis relies on… if those assumptions turn out to be wrong (i.e. in 2009 Toskala not being the worst goalie in the league, for example) it blows up completely.
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 18, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
For sure. We could probably dissect our potential goal scoring for hours. Main thing is that we actually lost scoring over the past 12 months and goal scoring is a big issue this year (if our goaltending has improved, which I think most of us feel is true)
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
Yeah, it’s all about the goal differential. It looks like the Leafs have patched up their G&D, but Pythagoras says they need to find some goal scoring to get into the W column.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Smart guy, that Pythagoras.
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 18, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Would love to see Damien “It’s not a goal scoring competition” Cox debate him.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Yeah, this is very helpful for identifying the issues.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 18, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
if every Leaf on the roster doesn’t play the full 82 game season, so help me I will find where they live and break their knee caps
This is my signature.
by blurr1974 on Aug 18, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
But then instead of them playing 72 they will end up playing 20 :(… So plz dont do that…
by hockeyphreak on Aug 18, 2010 6:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Birky great post
I’m not one for forecasting goals and points.
We don’t know if Kulemin will continue to improve or not.
Will Bozak have a sophomore slump?
Can Kadri come in and be a successful rookie?
Can Versteeg score more with more ice time with an arguably better centre?
I think there are too many questions marks to make these types of predictions. However, it was still well written, kudos
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Komisarek
He gets no love. 10% of zero is still zero, and so is 20%. Score one measely goal to prove birky wrong!
I love stats.
The biggest problem with the Leafs is the lack of talent and finish. Toughness and truculence is fun to watch but goals win games. Burke went a long way to improving this teams toughness and brags we’ll be hard to play against. We heard this last year too. I’d argue teams not only didn’t dread playing this team, they looked forward to it. In order for the leafs to show a marked improvement, they have to get much, much, better upfront. Will they be better than last year? Probably, but adding sub 20 goal scoring forwards, is not the answer. If Brian Burke hasn’t figured this out yet, he’s not the GM we thought we were getting. Still too early to evaluate Burke formula for success? Maybe. But going from bad to worse over his first two years is concerning to say the least.
TC
Yup...
We all know it’s Burke’s goal to make this team intimidating from top to bottom. He’s succeeded at that in one aspect… stacking the D. But having a highly skilled forward group that wreaks havoc on the opposing D is just as important in becoming an “intimidating” team. Obviously right now we’re lacking there. But I’m still not sure I agree with you when you say they’ve gone “from bad to worse”. Yes, GF has decreased, especially since the Phaneuf deal. But I’d argue that Burke has made a lot of moves to get rid of all the dead weight that used to be on this team. Stajan, Blake, Antropov, Ponikarovsky, et al were never going to get the team further ahead than they already were. Adding Kessel, Bozak, Versteeg, etc. has laid the foundation for a forward group with a much higher potential ceiling. He just needs to add a some more pieces.
agree about the dead weight, but...
dealing Blake and Toskala’s contracts was nothing short of incredible. I didn’t think it was possible. Obviously Kessel goes a long way to adding to the talent pool. No other forward on the team is close to him in raw talent. Bozak was a nice pick-up but would he be a top six on a contender? Tough to say but I think probably not. I like Versteeg, but he came from a contender and was not a top six. If this team is going to make the jump to the next level it’s going to take a lot more than that. This team needs a huge injection of talent. We need legitimate top six forwards. We need players that will score regularly. As far as going from bad to worse, I was looking more at their finish in the standings. Generally, a new GM and overhaul results in a jump in the standings not a plummet. Having said all this I do believe your right in saying we have a better foundation. I just think it needs to be a lot better.
by leafsandstuff on Aug 18, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right, right now I’d consider the team’s forward group as a collection of “pieces”, and that includes Kessel. We still need to put the core into place. And as teams continue to fight against the restrictions of the cap, that means good things for us in free agency 2011. Take Giguere and Finger off the books and that’s $10 million. Re-sign Gunner and Schenn for something reasonable, and maybe trade a guy like Beauchemin or Komisarek in order to let Aulie step in on the cheap. I’m not a GM or a cap expert, but to me that sounds like we’re in perfect position to go out and sign a Thornton/Bergeron/Backes. I definitely think Burke is positioning the team cap-wise to be able to make a huge splash next summer.
Thornton/Bergeron/Backes.
One of these things is not like the other…
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Aug 19, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
thornton = old & broken
bergeron/backes = new hotness
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 19, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
also
thornton/bergeron/backes = not going to happen
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 19, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
bergeron is new and broken
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 19, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
He got better
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Aug 19, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
clarke somehow got sinden to take the monkey paw
and now you guys have the concussion hot potato…
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 19, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
A Newt?
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes.)
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Aug 20, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I like Versteeg, but he came from a contender and was not a top six
Who was above him on the depth chart? Kane and Hossa.
Before Hossa came back from injury he was playing second line.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Bozak and Versteeg are legit “Top 6” guys on all but a handful of teams. Versteeg got stuck behind Kane and Hossa; two of the top 10 RWers in the league. And on the third line with defensively minded players he put up 20 goals. Think about that for a second.
Bozak on the other hand is already better than Matt Stajan was with Kessel, and he’s getting $3.5M a year to center Iginla.
When I read the nickname Testicula, the first thing that popped into my head was a vampiristic scrotum that can only be killed with a silver cross driven through the vas deferens.
Bozak and Versteeg are legit "Top 6"
Versteeg maybe. But Bozak. He’s an undrafted player who didn’t even play a full season. Much to early to tell. Even if he does end up playing a top six role with the Leafs it may have more to do with our lack of talent than his ability. I do like Bozak better than Stajan, based on competitiveness alone, but I don’t think that should be our barometer for rating a first line center to play with Kessel.
TC
by leafsandstuff on Aug 19, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Stats-wise Bozak’s performance projected over the full year would have been Calder-candidate material.
A Nation of Masochists
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing - Vince Lombardi
dealing Blake and Toskala’s contracts was nothing short of incredible
Toskala’s contract had but months left on it. The fact Toskala was traded again within days of arriving in Anaheim suggests that Burke’s feat was neither unique nor un-repeatable.
The Blake for Giguere contract has more to do with dollars than hockey. Blake’s salary takes a dip this year to $3M while Gigeure’s goes up to $7M, saving the Ducks a cool $1M.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
The fact Toskala was traded again within days of arriving in Anaheim suggests that Burke’s feat was neither unique nor un-repeatable.
To somewhat debunk this statement, it WAS Sutter who traded for him.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Aug 19, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I wouldn’t call it incredible, just acceptable.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Aug 19, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Giggy trade = savy move by both gms that helped out both clubs with their own issue
Phaneuf trade = crazy, with the potential to be a total fleecing if Aulie is as good as I hope
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 19, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Sadly, TWSS.
It will never cease to amaze me that Sutter has held on to his job in Calgary.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Gotta agree with. Even more whacky moves this offseason.
by leafsandstuff on Aug 19, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Convincing any GM to take on Jason Blake was incredible. I agree it was about dollars, I assumed that was obvious. While Blake’s salary does dip to $3M his cap hit remains at $4M. Toskala was in the deal because a goalie was coming our way. I still give this one to Burke for finding a fit for Blake where no-one thought it was possible. Getting Giggy to add some short term stability in net and take some heat off Gustavvson was the icing on the cake.
TC
by leafsandstuff on Aug 19, 2010 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Before you call it incredible, you might want to turn the equation around.
Anaheim was able to move their back-up goalie carrying a $6M cap hit (5th highest paid G in the league) and $7M in salary dollars for a ~50pt player with good speed AND free up $2M in cap space and $1M in total committed salary in the process.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
good deal all around
Even better after they dealt that poison that is Toskala away to the Flames
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Aug 19, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Before you call it incredible
Guiguere has one year left and Blake still has two on a terrible deal the Leafs and most of the hockey world thought was a terrible deal for almost his entire tenure with Toronto.
Giguere made an immediate positive and will do so this year as well.
But if this is about me using the word incredible, my bad, how is really nice.
by leafsandstuff on Aug 19, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s partially about your use of the word incredible. It’s not an adjective that describes a pretty standard trade, born mostly of out economic considerations, that helps both clubs.
Guiguere has one year left and Blake still has two
Gigeure will make $7M with the Leafs, Blake will make $6M with the Ducks. The Ducks have budget issues and this will help them out. Gigeuere was riding the pine, at least Blake will play.
most of the hockey world thought was a terrible deal for almost his entire tenure with Toronto.
Source? Citation?
$3M in salary for 40 to 50 points is market value. His 63 pts with the Leafs was just 6 off his career high and put him as the 15th highest scoring LW in the NHL that season.
Giguere made an immediate positive and will do so this year as well.
If anything, Gigeure’s performance with the Leafs was bi-modal – he was either excellent or quite below average. It’s fantastic news that you’ve seen the future and know that he makes a positive contribution in 2010-11. How does Kessel do? What’s the trade deadline look like? At what point do the Leafs use their 10th d-man?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
$3m was exactly what I thought Blake was worth
Unfortunately, his cap hit was $4m. And he was signed for 2 years too long considering he was already 33 in his outlier year.
For a 2nd line hamster, you can’t have that kind of contract acting as a cap anchor on your team.
JFJ always reminded me of JP RIccardi: great at scouting & drafting, but terrible when it came to managing pro assets (signings, trades, team construction etc)
Giguere played 15 games with the Leafs, going 6-7-2. One of those losses was a one-goal, .955 performance. One of those losses (3-2 vs SJ in Kadri’s game) was a flukie affair where 2 or 3 of the Shark goals came off of Leaf legs. One of those losses was the Blues “last game before the Olympics” where the entire team seemed to already have checked out.
3 of those losses were from Toronto’s patented strategy of making back-up goalies look like Vezina winners (Clemmenson w Panthers, Biron w Islanders, Peters w Hurricanes). So hopefully if this team has improved at all those results would have been much different.
Considering all of Giguere’s Toronto wins were with a SV% of .910 or higher (rounding up for the single .909 game), I am also very optimistic at what he can bring to the team this season.
You don’t have to take it like that. Be nice. New rules etc…and will do so this year as well.It’s fantastic news that you’ve seen the future and….
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 20, 2010 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Considering all of Giguere’s Toronto wins were with a SV% of .910 or higher (rounding up for the single .909 game), I am also very optimistic at what he can bring to the team this season.
I’m pretty sure all of Toskala and Raycroft’s wins came when they posted high save percentages. Funny how that works, eh?
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
While they were starters here, both Toskala & Raycroft had 6 wins in the sub .899 range… (Toskala had 12 overall in his 3 seasons with Toronto)
When you’re shit, you’re shit
I was just saying that it’s a good sign that Giguere was clearly a factor in all of his wins, not just riding along while the new-look team won without him (or even worse, despite him).
I’m in the camp that doesn’t see Giggy as a washed-up, cash-dump, has-been goalie. I still think he’s got a bunch of years left in him, and it was more a combination of circumstances that undercut his position as a top-level NHL goalie.
I am optimistic about his return to excellence – a little bit here next year, and then likely somewhere else the year after that.
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 21, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
If Giguere re-ups with the Leafs after his current contract expires, it better go down in history as one of the largest pay cuts ever seen in the NHL.
Salary: 5th overall ($7M)
SV%: 29th
GAA:36th
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
i highly doubt he's back
a little bit here next year, and then likely somewhere else the year after that.
Unless things go terribly with Gustavsson AND GIguere is awesome again, I can’t see him being back.
Gustavsson should end this season as the assumed #1. At that point the next best option (Rynnas/Scrivens/Reimer) comes up and battles him as a 1B.
We have to start seeing who in our depth is worth a damn NHL-wise, and keep the best while turning the others into skater assets if their progress logjams.
Unless the Monster is something spectacular, history tells us that he (like most goalies) will only be a starter for about 3 years. So hopefully the goalie assets we have will have 1 stage of overlap/continuity, and the other one or two are good enough to be traded.
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 22, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
and it would definitely be at a pay cut
i can’t see him getting another contract somewhere for more than 3 or 3.5 – and this is if he’s really good.
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 22, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry bud, guess I hit a nerve.
This has ceased to be sensible conversation so all I’ll say is it’s fun trading opinions with you but this one is done,
by leafsandstuff on Aug 20, 2010 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
USE WORDS PROPER LIKE
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 20, 2010 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions
PPP Rule #5
Fact check
When I read the nickname Testicula, the first thing that popped into my head was a vampiristic scrotum that can only be killed with a silver cross driven through the vas deferens.
Here’s a post from an Anaheim blogger that explains just what MF37 is trying to highlight.
I thought it would be impossible to deal Blake but in light of that analysis it’s pretty clear that it was not as incredible as we thought.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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i feel like we’re being inundated with Claude Lemiuex’s as of late
This is my signature.
by blurr1974 on Aug 20, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Turtle invasion?
When I read the nickname Testicula, the first thing that popped into my head was a vampiristic scrotum that can only be killed with a silver cross driven through the vas deferens.
OH DEAR GOD RUN
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 20, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
No nerve stuck, just completely disagreed with your analysis and many of your word choices.
Bitter Leaf Fan: because sometimes there's no option but to be bitter...
Scoring Chances Wasted?
Well said, with a smal caveat that might make it all the more optimistic.
There will be no more wasted minutes on guys like Primeau and Mayers and a few others. Whoever gets their, granted, limited minutes, will generate SOMETHING. Same goes double for Jeff Finger the pylon that gets paid like a star.
And the biggie. How many 20 mph 75 foot backhands are we avoiding with Blake run out of town? Burke still has my nomination for sainthood for that one. Most times the albino gnome and Babyface Stajan would waste an offensive possession.
The now full time kids like Gunner and Komi are gonna give us way more over the entire schedule, as you so aptly present. I’m liking what I’ve seen from the Naz, development and atitude wise. I would not be shocked if his first year was more like that of Duchene, not Hedman.
Lastly, the back end is healthy and we all know that the cardboard cutout formerly known as Toskala has actually been exorcised. Burkie does go to Mass every Sunday.
There will be speed to burn up front, real NHL goaltending coupled with a strong defence that is gonna hurt people bad, then move the puck.
Colour me crazy, but if the D is healthy and mean and plays the gap right, these kids are gonna score them by the bushel off the rush. When all is said and done, even more so if a couple of newbies, say D’Amigo and Mueller, make it up during the season, this will be the fastest set of forwards in the league.
Speed kills. It’s gonna be fun.
i'm cautiously with you:
PLAYOFFS!!!!1
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 19, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
albino gnome and Babyface Stajan
Hilarious. Sainthood may be a bit strong, but I like your tone. I’m always ready to jump on Burke when I feel screwed up but he made out like a bandit with those deals.
TC
No offense intended
but you don’t have to sign every post. Your name automatically appears.
A Nation of Masochists
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing - Vince Lombardi
What are you talking about?
Dr. SF M.D.
When I read the nickname Testicula, the first thing that popped into my head was a vampiristic scrotum that can only be killed with a silver cross driven through the vas deferens.
I know right?
Sir JaredFromLondon Esq
You may be taking Jared a little too seriously
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 21, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
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