Lee Stempniak and the Tale of His Shooting Percentage
by Chemmy on Aug 31, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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PrintIf Lee Stempniak (14 goals 14 games in Phx.) rolls out 25-30 goals this season it will be a futher indictment of Ron Wilson's coaching. - Scott Burnside
There's an interesting phenomena with the Leafs: if anyone we trade has any success he's "the one that got away". After his "excellent play" in the desert Lee Stempniak has re-upped for two years at $1.75M per.
I thought Lee Stempniak played solid two way hockey in Toronto but Burnside is entirely off base to suggest that Lee Stempniak never got a fair shake or was used improperly by Ron Wilson. Stempniak's move to Phoenix saw him slide from playing 18 minutes a night to 15.
Stempniak played 123 games with the Leafs and scored a total of 25 goals on 8.5% shooting. In 14 games in Phoenix he scored 14 goals on 29.2% shooting. To put 29.2% shooting into perspective Wayne Gretzky had a 24.9% shooting percentage the year he scored 92 goals. For further contrast remember that Lee Stempniak once shot so wide of the net from between the faceoff circles on a breakaway that the puck hit the corner boards.
The fact of the matter is Lee Stempniak is a player who seems to step it up in contract years. I don't hold any ill will to the guy but if he's a 30 goal scorer one wonders why he's only making $1.75M. The free agent market doesn't think Stempniak will score 30 goals, Don Maloney doesn't think Stempniak will score 30 goals and neither do the Leafs. The only person waiting to rub Ron Wilson's nose in a player's unsustainable hot streak is Scott Burnside. Makes you wonder: why?
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Yea, and Grizzly Adams had a beard.
PPP ain't nothin to cuss with
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Aug 31, 2010 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Grizzly Adams did have a beard.
Loving the Leafs is like being in love with a drug-addled, gambling addicted prostitute with a heart of gold and a bunch of humanitarian awards from her youth. It’s hard. It hurts. But dammit! I just love them!
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Aug 31, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I heard 1.75 yesterday.
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I think Mirtle tweeted the update last night; $2.3MM his second year.
Not enough of a change to affect your point.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t doubt that Mirtle is correct, I’m just saying why it’s 1.75 in the article.
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Yeah, that was the figure yesterday. And $1.9MM still reflects league-wide consensus that Stempniak is probably not a lock 20 goal scorer, let alone a 30 goal scorer.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Alex Burrows
35 goals, $2 mill a year salary.
Jussi Jokinen, 30 goals, $1.7 mill a year salary
Mikael Samuelsson, 30 goals, $2.5 mill a year salary
Other guys in the same range like Loui Eriksson and Rene Bourque saw huge jumps in their salary up around $3.5 to $4.25 million next year… so yeah… I’m guessing he’s seen as a possible 20-25 goal guy… not a 30+ goal guy in the future.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Those guys were RFAs, no?
$1.9MM to me screams 15 goal scorer.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Samuelsson was a UFA but he was playing 3rd line minutes in Detroit before going to free agency.
It’s also very unlikely he’ll hit 30 goals again, I think.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Aug 31, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
on the leafs
it screams “No. 9 defenseman”
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
Burrows was looked as a depth 3rd liner agitator/tertiary scorer. The fact that he caught fire with the Sedins is great for the Canucks but I don’t think he or his agent would have locked in for 4 years @ $2m if they even had a sniff of 30 goals on their minds… the guy was an ECHL walk-on for goodness sakes.
Jokinen was a perennial 50-pt guy with some nasty shootout magic that could never seem to put it together overall. He’s got talent but I don’t think he could ever be seriously considered a “30-goal scorer”… I would put him in the same class as Radim Vrbata
by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 31, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s good to see people are learning that Burnside’s a hack.
In Lou We Trust: Continuing a saga no one really cares about
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Aug 31, 2010 9:09 AM EDT reply actions
Aside from LeBrun, is anybody at ESPN any good?
Follow me on twitter @CoolJ90 or add me to XBox Live - CoolJ90
Including LeBrun, no.
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JaredFromLondon: ...Odin, he's cool.
LOL
Bias.
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They’re okay for breaking news, but they’re worthless when it comes to writing.
In Lou We Trust: Continuing a saga no one really cares about
If the quality of my posts begin to get better, it's because i'm doing steroids.
by Kevin Sellathamby on Aug 31, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember watching the Habs-Caps series this past post-season; Dominic Moore scored the series winner when Mike Green pulled a Mike Green. Before the game had even ended, the commentators (can’t remember who) were saying what a big mistake it was for Toronto to have let Moore go (Moore was traded for a 2nd rounder), because he has the potential to come up big like he just did.
Oh Brian Burke, how shortsighted you were to not have known that Dominic Moore would put up a crappy 28 point season and then be handed a goal on a silver platter on a lackadaisical defensive play by Green. For shame Mr. Burke, for shame.
When I read the nickname Testicula, the first thing that popped into my head was a vampiristic scrotum that can only be killed with a silver cross driven through the vas deferens.
I always liked Moore while he was here, but I was never worried when we lost him.
PPP ain't nothin to cuss with
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Aug 31, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
So did I
but i couldn’t believe we got a 2nd round pick for him.
And so did Florida. Amazing.
20 miles to Legoland!
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 31, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ve actually had people try to mock me for the Leafs “letting Wellwood get away”, because you know, he was such a valuable 3rd/4th liner for Vancouver.
I just laughed at him.
We’ve had enough legitimate “ones that got away” not to worry about disposable parts like Stempniak, Moore and Wellwood. In fact, didn’t PPP do a “where are they now” on post-lockout ex-Leafs? And weren’t a staggering number of them out of the league or making negligible contributions elsewhere?
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Seven posts of guys that are almost uniformly terrible.
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I actually really enjoyed that spurt of luck Wellwood enjoyed when he started in Vancouver and how people thought that meant he was “back”. What a joke. I just looked at his s% and laughed—I knew with every fibre of my being that he would always suck, because lazy is lazy.
And of course, we were right.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I remember doing the same. 35%! The guy was only getting shots every third game. What a joke.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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Let’s not even mention that Buffalo , the team Toronto actually traded him to, let him walk in free agency and it was Florida that traded him to Montreal.
Resident Capologist
and even florida only signed him once camp was already underway, they were the only team to even give him a chance
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Aug 31, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Now now, I’m sure Lee Stempniak is going to make us all look dumb when he has another season of 29.4% shooting.
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He’s averaged about 200 or so shots a season meaning that at a 29.4% rate he’d score 59 goals. Stempniak is the next Ovechkin.
When I read the nickname Testicula, the first thing that popped into my head was a vampiristic scrotum that can only be killed with a silver cross driven through the vas deferens.
Thing is
if he’s shooting 30% at the start of the year, what do you want to bet the coaching staff tell him to shoot a lot more, inevitably reducing his shooting percentages.
Ironically, if he shoots enough (i.e. 300 shots) and shoots only 10%, that gets him his 30 goals, and Scott Burnside will think he’s been vindicated as correct.
The main thing the Leafs obviously weren’t doing ENOUGH of is making Lee Stempniak the centrepiece of our Offense when we have the likes of Phil Kessel… how idiotic of Ron Wilson.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
If Stempniak is shooting more, but not getting into favourable shooting spots more (and there’s no reason to think he will), he still won’t get to 30 goals. He’ll have a Blake-esque shooting percentage though.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m assuming that if you only score by swatting at garbage and don’t otherwise shoot you’d have a higher percentage than someone who shoots a lot.
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wait, we now have a player who goes to the front of the net and puts back garbage goals?
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
According to BehindTheNet
at 5 on 5 Stempniak’s avg shot distance with Phoenix was 27.9 feet, MacArthur’s average shot distance with Atlanta was 28.3 feet.
Not sure that indicates either of them are slapping in garbage goals.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
MacArthur
had a low wrister shooting percentage, while Stempniak had a low slapshot shooting percentage.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
nevermind
it’s a combined stat for their play with both teams… not just Atlanta or Phoenix.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
when watching MacArthurs goals on NHL.com the other day, most of his goals came from in close
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
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Ok well maybe that's where he scores from
but he shoots from pretty far out on average.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Either way, it would be nice to have someone clean up in front of the net. Hopefully the likes of MacArthur, Caputi and Armstrong will be able to do that.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Four
of his 10 ES goals came from backhands/tip-ins/wrap-arounds…
only 3 of Stempniak’s 18 ES goals came from those types of plays…. so yeah he’s putting in a higher proportion of Garbage than Stempniak is.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I think there's a huge distinction
between a player’s SH% jumping 13% higher than it’s ever been in his career for an 18 game stretch, and a CAREER shooting percentage of 14%… P.S. MacArthur’s SH% has dropped every year he’s played in the NHL as the number of shots he has taken has increased… odds are he isn’t a 14% shooter.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
Something else interesting
Stempniak skated in 277 minutes of ice time with the Coyotes, and scored the same number of goals he scored in Toronto in 1109 minutes of ice time (14 in both places)… and this is somehow Ron Wilson’s fault… ridiculous.
MacArthur gets traded from Buffalo to Atlanta and goes from scoring 13 goals in 862 minutes of ice time, to scoring 3 goals in 328 minutes of ice time… .where’s Burnside when the need to blame Atlanta’s crappy coaching/management for letting go of that 13% shooting machine MacArthur who will probably score 30 goals when he’s shooting percentage sky rockets to 30% this season???
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
alright then
either way, I’d like to think macarthur will contribute something… anything… and that he’ll play well enough to keep Kadri in the AHL.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
i am convinced
that one of Kadri or D’Amigo makes the team out of training camp. I’m just not sure which, or how I feel about it. I’m leaning towards “mildly disapproving”
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
I am leaning towards neither
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 31, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
i hope you're right
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
I’ve decided I shall pin my hopes on the darkhorse, Stefanovich.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Aug 31, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope all of the above
play the majority of this year in the AHL.
I’m certain some of them will see the NHL at some point, but they belong in the AHL developing their games.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
MUELLER!
Ze German darkhorse!
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 31, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Burnside probably thinks that Wilson is a jerk. Wilson doesn’t seem to respect the media very much, which, frankly, I love because I don’t know how much respect most of the toronto media deserves. But it’s easy to imagine him being rather rude to Burnside at some point, maybe even on a personal level, and Burnside feeling like he has an axe to grind in return.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Aug 31, 2010 1:12 PM EDT reply actions
that’s not possible because Burnside uses his real name, therefor he has no agenda.
This is my BOZAK!!!1
by blurr1974 on Aug 31, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno. Have you ever met someone whose real name was Burnside? I sure haven’t. Could be an alias.
Leaf, the universe and everything.
Now in year 44 of the 42-year saga.
Sure sounds made up.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
He should change it to something more solid and weighty sounding. Spadina, perhaps. Bloor maybe. Or Danforth.
Jimmy Bloor Viaduct.
Seem weighty enough? John CN Tower… Buck Rogers Centre.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Christie Pitts McGee
that one just makes me chuckle… I don’t think Scott Burnside should use it though.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
His shooting percentage certainly won’t be what it was, but I see no reason why he couldn’t keep generating goals if he plays like he did. He was finding open areas on the ice and going to the net to find pucks. It wasn’t complicated, the only question is can he do it when he’s not playing with a contract. I don’t know.
As to the indictment on Ron Wilson if he does, It certainly will be if he scores a bunch of goals. Not necessarily because it’s true, but because your mittenstringers will try and turn it into one.
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His shots/min went from .15 in Toronto to .17 in Phoenix. A 13% improvement. His goals/min went from .01 to .05. A 410% improvement.
I’m pretty sure the difference was luck (see: 240% improvement in shooting percentage), not becoming significantly better at “finding open areas on the ice and going to the net to find pucks”.
He’s a decent two-way forward you got on a good deal who can pop 15-20 goals in a 2nd/3rd line role. I’m not worried about him haunting the Leafs.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s luck and a 14 game sample. Nothing more.
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18 games. I get the point, just saying it could happen.
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JaredFromLondon: ...Odin, he's cool.
i’ll believe that when me shit turns purple and smells like rainbow sherbet
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Aug 31, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever Farve. Go drink your liter cola.
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JaredFromLondon: ...Odin, he's cool.
It could
More likely he goes back to his career shooting percentage and he’s still value for the deal.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Exactly.
I’m not too sad either way since he’s not terrible.
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JaredFromLondon: ...Odin, he's cool.
Did anyone cover what the Leafs gave up to get Stempniak yet in this thread?
I was a big Alex Steen fan and was really down when Fletcher gave him and Colaiacovo to the Blues for a guy with very few intangibles. I still don’t know why the Leafs gave up on Steen so quickly.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Aug 31, 2010 5:48 PM EDT reply actions
Steen was a very useful “tough minutes” guy for the Blues who still put up solid points. But he’s getting paid fairly this year so not much lost going forward.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
ya i guess the Leafs had too many of those bottom six grinders. Still though Steen came close to being a 30 goal scorer last year.
by bigrubberbiscuits on Sep 1, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
No, this is not Wilson's fault, and neither is that, or the other thing...
…and you can’t blame Wilson or Burke for Toskalol, and nobody predicted this year’s 1st rounder would be #2.
There’s lots of unjustified criticism out there, and not every failure is their fault. But I’m tired of defending these guys, even when they deserve it. I want to be able to point to what they’ve done right.
Excuses, even good ones, are no substitute for success.
Sorry we try to only lay blame where it’s deserved. That can be quite jarring for some people.
Explain how the ridiculous jump in shooting percentage is Wilson’s fault?
Burke can definitely be blamed for Toskalol and if you’ve bothered to visit here before (and you have) then you know that but that doesn’t help make your pointless comment seem valid does it.
And I defy you to find anyone that truly thought the Leafs would finish second last in the league. Go ahead, show it to us.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Burke
has been blamed for thinking Toskala was a serviceable NHL goalie (although he wasn’t the only one at the time to think Toskala would bounce back)… he can be forgiven for NOT expecting Toskala to produce the worst NHL save percentage for a starting goalie since the Butterfly Era began, or for having the lowest GVT in the past oh… 20+ years.
As for Wilson, I’m not sure how Toskala was his fault… he isn’t the goalie coach, and he trotted Gustavsson out there as often as he could despite his injuries/surgery issues. He even played MacDonald when he had the chance… he can’t magically make the Leafs goalies better… and coaching won’t make a huge difference at that point frankly.
So yeah, Wilson isn’t responsible for Toskala’s save percentage or Stempniak’s shooting percentage. He hands out ice time, and chooses the starting goalie. He also teaches the younger players.
The place Wilson can get blame is if the Leafs younger players don’t develop or improve at all. If they aren’t getting better he isn’t doing his job. Last I checked younger Leafs like Tyler Bozak, Nikolai Kulemin, Carl Gunnarsson, and Luke Schenn have all been improving under his tutelage… and I don’t really think Phil Kessel suffered particularly, nor did Gustavsson.
We’ll see how this year pans out, but if the kids all crap the bed, then Wilson’s in trouble. If they keep improving he’ll be doing what he’s supposed to.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Power Play
And to a degree, PK (though I think goaltending was the biggest issue there). Those are issues I lay at Wilson’s feet (even if an assistant had primary responsibility, the buck stops with Wilson.
If our PP continues to feature Kessel and Kaberle playing pattycake 10 feet from each other I’m going to scream.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
A teacher of mine once told me, “You have a good excuse, but you still don’t know the material.”
I don’t dispute that it’s a legitimate exercise to determine whether a particular criticism is valid. I don’t dispute that not everything is their fault.
My point is, failure in the end is not about blame. It’s just about the absence of success.
One team wins the Cup,
After that, everyone is just in line as losers, whether you are 2nd or 30th.
Playoff hockey would be nice, though.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Sep 1, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
So your point is “I don’t care what happened, we didn’t win”?
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
by PPP on Sep 1, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
What line was Lee on in Toronto?
It’s pretty clear his shooting percentage will go down, but if Lee was playing on the 2nd line in Toronto, you’re going against much more skilled players on a per line basis. If Lee winds up being on the 3rd line in Phoenix, that could be the difference between 5 and 10 additional goals on the season.
30 goals is unlikely, but doable. I’d put the over/under for Lee at 23 goals, which sounds about right…
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