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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Something To Remember

Justin Bourne of the ECHL Idaho Steelheads and the Hockey News has this to say about cracking NHL lineups:

"Established, contracted players have a massive leg-up. Not only do they have to go into camp and lose their jobs – which is only 5,000 times harder to do than winning one – but they have almost no stress. They can take a couple chances with the puck, relax without it and generally be more effective players. Combine that with the fact they probably are more effective players to begin with (since they’ve earned contracts) and sometimes the divide between those trying out for a team and those already on it can be painful to watch (or, cough, experience)."

Poll
Which of these NHL Regulars from the end of last season has the best chance of "losing" his job and being sent down to the AHL?
Christian Hanson
40 votes
Luca Caputi
48 votes
Clarke MacArthur
1 votes
John Mitchell
16 votes
Mike Brown
1 votes

106 votes | Poll has closed

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Caputi by a mile.

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Aug 31, 2010 11:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, Hanson, Mitchell and Brown all fit better on the 4th line/pressbox which should make them pretty safe. And I can’t see Burke putting a guy he just signed for $1.1MM in the AHL to start the season.

by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also, I’m almost 100% that out of those 5, Caputi is the only one who is waiver exempt.

When I read the nickname Testicula, the first thing that popped into my head was a vampiristic scrotum that can only be killed with a silver cross driven through the vas deferens.

by SkinnyFish on Aug 31, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hanson?

20 miles to Legoland!

by nhlcheapshot on Aug 31, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was my reaction too.

Leaf, the universe and everything.
Now in year 44 of the 42-year saga.

by 1967ers on Aug 31, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Isnt Hansons contract going to be a 2 way?

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on Aug 31, 2010 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I was going to say Caputi, but Hanson’s contract is two-way, apparently, so that seems to imply they are thinking of sending him down. Not that MLSE could not afford to pay him the NHL salary, but still.

by Leaf in Habland on Aug 31, 2010 1:06 PM EDT reply actions  

does a 2-way contract make a guy waiver exempt? maybe that’s the reason, as opposed to $$ reasons

by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 31, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

No it doesn't

that was mythbusted (a myth perpetuated by NHL10)

2-way just means he gets paid less in the AHL. Waiver status is based on # of games played mostly.

Both Hanson and Caputi are waiver-exempt. I think Caputi will lose that status in around 20 more NHL games.

20 miles to Legoland!

by nhlcheapshot on Aug 31, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow, ive been tricked by a video game

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on Aug 31, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t believe so. But Hanson is waiver exempt anyway, I’m pretty sure.

by The '67 Sound on Aug 31, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

And no

2 way deals don’t exempt players from waivers… it’s determined by the age where they play their first NHL game and the number of games/seasons since.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kakapootee

This is my BOZAK!!!1

by blurr1974 on Aug 31, 2010 1:21 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm surprised

Hanson comes in under Caputi on this one… Caputi has more AHL experience, and produced better in the AHL and NHL.

Caputi: 6’3" 200 lbs, 22 years old, 120 AHL games, 92 points, -2 rating, 28 NHL games, 3 goals, 9 points, -2 rating.
Hanson: 6’3" 228 lbs, 24 years old, 38 AHL games, 31 points, +3 rating, 36 NHL games, 3 goals, 9 points, -3 rating.

They’re virtually the same player with Hanson playing C and Caputi playing Wing. Caputi is 2 years younger, and has more AHL experience. I think whichever one plays better stays in the NHL, and the Waiver thing is only relevant for Caputi for another 22 games. Unfortunately Hanson blew a year of waiver exemption with his 5 game tryout to start 2 years ago. Now he is no longer waiver exempt. Odds are though that nobody would claim him on waivers given his lack of interest as a UFA.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 1:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Woops nevermind

Hanson was 23 when he played his first NHL game, so he gets 3 seasons or 60 games. He’s exempt for another 14 games.

They’re both exempt to start the year.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Either way

Hanson played 21 games at the end of the year after the trading deadline, Caputi played 19.

They really are virtually in an identical spot as far as their chances go methinks.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s a question of the spots they fill. The perception is that the bottom six player can afford to be much “rougher around the edges” – do we really care if Hanson works on his wrist shot in the A or the N? Or if he doesn’t have some amazing chemistry with Colton Orr? Instead, Caputi’s shot and chemistry are a bit more significant. So if we have to send one guy down, I think it might be a guy who’ll be brought up at the same time as Kadri.

If I'm losing an argument, I ask myself "What would a real journalist do?"
Then I cower behind: "You still don't get it. Deal with it." Thanks, James Wallace.

by Bower Power on Aug 31, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yea, I think it might be that people are just more familiar with Hanson and also project his potential to be a little higher.

PPP ain't nothin to cuss with
The Guess Who sucked, the Jets were lousy anyway

by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Aug 31, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure why they're more familiar with Hanson

aside from 5 games in the NHL two years ago and 38 AHL games for the Marlies?

Caputi did play in the OHL for Niagara while Hanson played in the NCAA for Notre Dame… one of those teams is a lot more local.

As for projecting potential, Caputi has put up better AHL numbers, and identical NHL numbers and he’s 2 years younger… I don’t get why Hanson would project higher.

I also don’t get why we’re certain Hanson is bottom 6 and Caputi is top 6… nothing has really been said on either player in either regard aside from the fact that they are supposed to play the same role in the AHL as they do in the NHL, and last I checked Hanson was the top Centre for the Marlies when he was there for most of last season… that means they viewed him in a top 6 role… and he came out and played a bottom 6 role…

Correct me if I’m wrong in my recollections, but that’s how I saw it last season.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess the real question with Hanson is…does anyone actually believe he could be “Top 6?”

by TheBurnward on Aug 31, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t.

Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984

by leafer1984 on Aug 31, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

No more

than I think Caputi is

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Aug 31, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

about 12 months ago

many of us were convinced that the Frat Pack would play top minutes in the AHL and eventually emerge as a pre-made ‘S’ line for the Leafs.
Maybe Hanson’s transition to the NHL speed/intensity is taking him slightly longer than expected, but he might still be able to reach 2nd line winger potential.

Ditto for Caputi. i wouldnt hold my breath though, for either guy

by Death_By_Leafs on Aug 31, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Caputi saw about a minute more TOI/G than Hanson last season, but played a full minute more on the PP, and Hanson spent a minute of his time on average on the PK while Caputi sat out those situations. So there was a disparity, however slight, between the two and what kind of “offensive” minutes that they were getting, one that as the season went on was more apparent based on their regular linemates. Wilson did keep the lines blended, so the difference isn’t huge, but the difference in perception is justified at this stage, in my mind.

by koopa kid on Aug 31, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

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