NHL Fantasy Drafting Guide: Part 1 of 2 (Forwards)

If you're like me, and you take your fantasy hockey very seriously, you undoubtedly already use the brilliant Yahoo! NHL Fantasy League.

It's free, detailed, features a live, online player draft, and is incredibly addictive. For the last five years I've been battling with my friends on Yahoo! from October through April - in competitions so fierce that friendships have nearly ended over vetoed trades and suspicious commissioner activities. But it's all good, clean fun most of the time!

I won't claim to be the best fantasy hockey GM in the world, but I'm always at the top of the pack in some pretty competitive leagues - and it's all thanks to pre-draft planning. Of which I have already started for the 2010-2011 campaign.

In an effort to give Leafs Nation a slight competitive advantage in their upcoming fantasy leagues I will open up my fantasy pre-draft notes to the world in a two part series. The first part will be about forwards, the second about defense and goalies - with some helpful draft day strategy sprinkled throughout.

I urge you to disagree with me! If you think I have ranked a player too high or too low - please let me know! This is all about fine-tuning our fantasy teams so we can wipe the stupid grins off Habs, Sens or Canucks fans - and show 'em once and for all which fanbase knows the most about hockey!!!

Also, if you and your friends do not have a fantasy league - I urge you to go to Yahoo! and sign up. It's tons of fun, and for new hockey fans it really helps you learn about hockey players outside your favorite team.

Rankings begin after the break!

Goalies are the backbone of your fantasy team, but your selections at Forward will determine if you have the muscle to go all the way in the your fantasy league.

The first thing you need to know is that it is difficult to make a bad choice in the first round. There is a reason that the first round of the draft is usually completed in 30 seconds - you have so much time to think about who you're going to pick and every player is a great option. This year is no exception. However, you still want to emerge from the first round with the edge. Drafting a 100pt player after your rival selects an 80pt player could be enough to vault you to the top of the standings when all is said and done.

So, if all the choices are good, how do we find the competitive edge?

A good place to start is to forget about the players for a minute and just focus on the teams.

The top 10 offensive teams from 2009-10 can be found below. Next to the city name you can find their goal/game average, an indicator of team improvement/decline, and a summary of relative divisional strength.

Washington/ 3.75/ stable/ div.str. weak

Vancouver/ 3.23/ improved/ div.str. weak

Chicago/ 3.14/ decline/ div.str. tough

San Jose/ 3.08/ stable/ div.str. tough

Pittsburgh 2.99/ stable/ div.str. tough

Colorado 2.85/ stable/ div.str. weak

Anaheim 2.8/ stable/ div.str. tough

Philadelphia 2.8/ improved/ div.str. tough

Buffalo 2.78/ stable/ div.str. tough

Los Angeles 2.76/ stable/ div.str. tough

Other Notables: Detroit, Tampa Bay

From this we can gather that Washington and Vancouver are teams poised to have great offensive years - these teams have lost virtually no talent and remain the class of their divisions. This could (and again, we're talking about getting an edge here, so 'could' is valid) make players on these two teams more valuable than players in the same offensive positions on other teams.

Players on Chicago, San Jose and Pittsburgh are also safe choices, however. Drafting a player from a team that averages around 3 goals/game will almost guarantee consistent offensive production. I would also put a star next to players on Detroit and Tampa Bay, since I personally think those teams will have solid offensive years.

Basically, this kind of analysis helps you target a specific kind of player. The most effective players in fantasy leagues are what I like to call "funnel players." These are players that all their team's offense gets directed through - like a funnel. When there's a 5-on-3 powerplay and the coach is drawing up a play, who will be the triggerman? You want to draft that player on a high scoring team. Plain and simple.

Note: Just because Chicago has lost a bunch of good talent and plays in a moderately tough division, do not underrate them or their players. Chicago is an interesting case because the loss of supporting talent may actually increase the offensive production of a player like Patrick Kane. With less choices the coaching staff may be forced to increase Kane's ice time, especially on the powerplay, which may turn him into more of a funnel player than he was previously.

Okay, so now that we have a grip on what teams could give us the edge, let's take a look at some forwards!

Going into a draft I like to rank my forwards in three categories: Top 10, Next 20, Remaining 40.

In most 10 team fantasy leagues, pre- ranking this many forwards should get you through the critical first 10 rounds. The idea is that you want to get AT LEAST 10% of the players in each category (so at least 1 top 10 forward, 2 next 20 forwards, and 4 from the remaining 40). If you can steal 15-20% of the players in the Top 10 and Next 20, your team will be STACKED!

To begin ranking players in my Top 10, I peeled off a list of the top offensive players of 2009-2010, making sure to note their powerplay contributions and point totals adjusted for injuries. See below:

H. Sedin (Van) 29(112) (27ppp)

Ovechkin (Was) 50(109) - 72 gp (adj. 56(124) (36ppp. Adj. 41ppp)

Crosby (Pit) 51(109) (34ppp)

Backstrom (Was) 33(101) (37ppp)

Stamkos (TB) 51(95) (41ppp)

St.Louis (TB) 29(94) (37ppp)

Richards (Dal) 24(91) (40ppp)

Thornton (SJ) 20(89) (29ppp)

Kane (Chi) 30(88) (29ppp)

Gaborik (Nyr) 42(86) (26ppp)

D.Sedin (Van) 29(85) - 63 gp (adj. 37(110) (21ppp Adj. 27ppp)

Kovalchuk (???) 41(85) - 76 gp (adj. 44(91) (27ppp Adj. 29ppp)

Semin (Was) 40(84) - 73 gp (adj. 44(94) (27ppp Adj. 30ppp)

Marleau (SJ) 44(83) (25ppp)

Parise (NJ) 38(82) (26ppp)

Heatley (SJ) 39(82) (30ppp)

Kopitar (LA) 34(81) (38ppp)

There is also Evgeni Malkin, of course, who played only 67 games...he definitely belongs up here.

>Malkin (Pit) 28(77) - 67 gp (adj. 34(94) (28ppp adj. 34ppp)

From this madness, behold! a Top 10 Forwards Rankings! (with explanations)

1.       Ovechkin (the true 09-10 Art Ross Winner - if he plays 82, he will bring home the Richard too!)

2.       Crosby (explosive player, huge powerplay production, lock for 40g-100pts...it's freakin' Crosby!)

3.       H.Sedin (great team, great line, funnel player, amazing point suck...lock for 100+ pts)

4.       Malkin (if he plays 82, he will post 90+ pts, great powerplay numbers, potential to win art ross every year)

5.       Backstrom (Ovechkin`s centre, point suck, great powerplay numbers, in his prime)

6.       D. Sedin (great team, great line, funnel player, goal scoring threat, potential to win Richard)

7.       Stamkos (funnel player, weak division, talented supporting cast, wicked pp production)

8.       Semin (top 5 pts player in 09-10 if not for injury, awesome support, natural scorer)

9.       Thornton (decline in production but great support, point suck, potential to win art ross)

10.   St.Louis (despite age, st.louis production consistent, great powerplay numbers...90+ pt lock)

(Note: "point suck" is a positive thing, meaning gets lots of second assists, etc.)

So, 8 of the 10 forwards up there are on elite, high scoring teams...the other 2 are on Tampa Bay, a team that could be poised for a huge offensive year. If you burn your 1st and 2nd draft picks on two of these guys, you will not be disappointed, I promise you.

The hardest decision here was to include Martin St.Louis in the Top 10. Many people in the 10 spot may be more inclined to take a younger star like Patrick Kane. Based on his performance last year St.Louis deserves to be there, no doubt - but he is risky because age could catch up with this man at any time! The addition of Alexander Semin may surprise some, but he had an amazing year last season and has explosive scoring potential. Also, Brad Richards finished 7th in scoring last season, but I left him out of the Top 10 because I think that production is unsustainable considering the Dallas Stars current roster and the toughness of their division.

On to the Next 20!

11.       Heatley (funnel player, great support, natural scorer,50/100+ pt potential, top pp unit)

12.       Marleau (great support, 40+ scorer, shorthanded threat, top pp unit)

13.       Kane (funnel player, increased role on team, should eclipse 30 goal output, lock for 80+pts)

14.       Parise (funnel player, great support, natural scorer, 50+ goal potential)

15.       Kovalchuk (funnel player, if he stays in the NHL, 50+ goal potential, natural scorer)

16.       B.Richards (suspiciously great campaign in 2009, huge assists totals, lock for 80+pts)

17.       Kopitar (funnel player, scoring threat...lock for 80+pts, great support especially from D)

18.       Gaborik (funnel player, explosive start in 2009, natural scorer, 90+ pt potential)

19.       Alfredsson (funnel player, natural scorer, consistent production, stupid Sen douchebag...)

20.   Datsyuk (low pt total in 2009 worrisome, but a consistent, high skilled centre...90+ pt potential)

21.   Getzlaf (injury plagued season, great puck mover, easily has 90+ pt potential)

22.   Zetterberg (low pt total in 2009 worrisome, but a consistent, high skilled winger...90+ pt potential)

23.   Perry (funnel player, usually ranked too high, Perry still has 80+ pt potential)

24.   Iginla (funnel player, natural scorer, should be a lock for 30+ goals....low scoring team)

25.   Hossa (if he plays 82 games he's a lock for 80+ pts, increased role on hawks)

26.   E.Staal (funnel player, bad start in 2009 but was still a pt per game player...questionable support)

27.   Nash (funnel player, natural scorer, should be a lock for 30+ goals)

28.   Stastny (great support, great assist numbers, high scoring team,  80+ pt potential)

29.   Kessel (funnel player, natural scorer, 40+ goal potential, GO LEAFS GO!)

30.   Hemsky (funnel player, pt per game player before injury, 80+ pt potential)

The Next 20 is potentially the most debatable part of pre-draft rankings. Yahoo! for example, in their pre-draft rankings, has Datsyuk ranked 11th, E.Staal ranked 12th, Thornton ranked 13th and Toews ranked 14th. Now, I love Jonathan Toews just like everyone else, but does Yahoo! really think he will have a more productive season than Anze Kopitar? The man had 38 power play points last year!!!

Anyway, the debate won't be decided until the regular season is concluded...but I like my Top 10 and Next 20 rankings. The majority of the players are the offensive work horse on high scoring teams. The fact that players like Toews may be ranked too highly will just let more of these funnel players fall to me on draft day!

The Remaining 40 Forwards are a mixed bag, of which there are some notables...I would recommend snagging the following players (see below). Should these players run out, the remaining players on the board are almost all fantasy league replacement level players, so don't sweat it!

M.Koivu 22(71)

R. Kessler 25(75)

L.Eriksson 29(71)

T.Plekanec 25(70)

V. Lecavalier 24(70)

D.Roy 26(69)

J. Toews 25(68)

T. Zajac 33(67)

A. Burrows 35(67) *injured

P.Sharp 25(66)

M. Richards 31(62)

D.Penner 32(63)

B. Ryan 35(64)

J. Carter 33(61)

So there you have it - I hope this has served as a bit of helpful info for all you poolies out there!

I will upload a similar post regarding Dmen/Goalies very soon!

Until then, just remember my 3 rules of fantasy drafting:

1. Draft "funnel" players from high scoring teams!
2. Dont go off the board for a player just because you like them!
3. Draft the best player available! Don't worry about positions!
   

Cheers,

TMLSiege(in Vancouver)