NHL Fantasy Drafting Guide: Part 2 of 2 (Defence and Goal)

Greetings Leafs Nation!

Last week I posted part one of my two part NHL Fantasy Drafting Guide. If you read it - thanks!

Having already ranked the top forwards available, this week I will focus on Defensemen and Goaltenders, as well as a little drafting strategy here and there.

Let's start with D!

Just to recap, the three rules to always remember during a fantasy draft are:

1.       Draft "funnel" players from high scoring teams!

2.       Don't go off the board for a player just because you like them!

3.       Draft the best player available! Don't worry about positions!

Rule number 2 applies most of all, in our end of the internet, to Leafs Captain Dion Phaneuf.

Just because you're a Leafs fan doesn't mean you have to draft Dion as one of your top defensemen. In common ten team leagues usually 30 to 40 blueliners are drafted - with this in mind, a quick look at defence scoring leaders from last season indicates that Dion, barring a miraculous return to his 2008 form, shouldn't be drafted before the late, late rounds.

Rule number 3 also applies to defensemen drafting in the early rounds. Mike Green, Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty and Dan Boyle will probably be drafted in the first three rounds of your fantasy draft - with Green potentially going in the first round.

 In my opinion this is a complete waste of a high pick.

 In a common ten team league there will be exactly thirty players drafted in the first three rounds, which means that at the end of round three there will definitely be high scoring players like Marian Hossa and Henrik Zetterberg still available. If 80+ point players like these are still available, why would you choose now to put a 50+ point defenseman on your roster? Even after the top 20 blueliners are drafted there are still some solid 40+ point guys left - that is not a huge drop off - so I urge you to stock up on forwards first. Follow rule number 3 and draft the best player - by which I mean highest point producing fantasy player - available. Don't worry about their position.

Okay, so what did defenseman scoring look like at the end of the 2009-2010 season?

Green (Was) 19(76) (35ppp) - 75gp (adj. 20(83) (38ppp)

Keith (Chi) 14(69) (16ppp)

Doughty (LA) 16(59) (31ppp)

Boyle (SJ) 15(58) (29ppp) - 76gp (adj. 16(62) (31ppp)

Pronger (Phi) 10(55) (26ppp)

Enstrom (Atl) 6(50) (19ppp)

Gonchar (Ott) 11(50) (30ppp) - 62gp (adj. 14(66) (39ppp)

Lidstrom (Det) 9(49) (20ppp)

Streit (Nyi) 11(49) (21ppp)

Kaberle (Tor) 7(49) (25ppp)

Myers (Buf) 11(48) (16ppp)

Pitkanen (Car) 6(46) (19ppp) - 71gp (adj. 7(53) (21ppp)

Visnovsky (Ana) 15(45) (23ppp) - 73gp (adj. 16(50) (25ppp)

Chara (Bos) 7(44) (16ppp)

Ehrhoff (Van) 14(44) (23ppp)

Weber (Nsh) 16(43) (20ppp)

McCabe (Fla) 8(43) (19ppp)

Zidlicky (Min) 6(43) (24ppp)

Edler (Van) 5(42) (19ppp) - 76gp (adj. 6(45) (20ppp)

Foster (Edm) 8(42) (26ppp) - 71gp (adj.  9(48) (30ppp)

Rafalski (Det) 8(42) (19ppp)

Yandle (Phx) 12(41) (16ppp)

Robidas (Dal) 10(41) (19ppp)

E.Johnson (Stl) 10(39) (15ppp)

Whitney (Edm) 7(39) (17ppp)

Timonen (Phi) 6(39) (19ppp)

Kubina (Tam) 6(38) (10ppp) - 76gp (adj. 7(40) (12ppp)

Campbell (Chi) 7(38) (11pp) - 68gp (adj. 8(45) (13ppp)

White (Cal) 13(38) (9ppp) - 83 gp!

Suter (Nas) 4(37) (17ppp)

That's the top 30. Other Notables:

Goligoski (Pit) 8(37) (17ppp) - 69gp (adj. 9(43) (20ppp)

Del Zotto (Nyr) 9(37) (22ppp)

Markov (Mon) 6(34) (16ppp) - 45gp (adj. 10(61) (29ppp)

Green (NJ) 6(37) (15ppp)

Phaneuf (Tor) 12(32) 16ppp)

Liles (Col) 6(31) (19ppp) - 59gp (adj. 8(43) (26ppp)

Jovanovski (Phx) 10(34) (14ppp) - 66gp (adj. 12(42) (17ppp)

Karlsson (Ott) 5(26) (10ppp) - 60gp (adj. 6(35) (13ppp)

Kuba (Ott) 3(28) (11ppp) - 53gp (adj. 4(43) (17ppp)

Souray (Edm) 4(13) (4ppp) - 37gp (adj. 8(28) (8ppp)

To make things easier for you on draft day, break these thirty players into three groups, just like we did with forwards: Top 10, Next 10, Remaining 10.

Unlike forwards, I don't think it's necessary to draft one dman from each grouping - I would be happy to start a fantasy season with Rafalski, Timonen and Suter, for example. Their combined 118 points (55ppp) is not a sharp drop off from a scenario where you spent higher draft picks on Boyle, Kaberle and Chara with their combined 148 points (70ppp). Assuming you made up this 30 point shortfall by drafting forwards intelligently with your high picks.

The point of this exercise is to catch high fantasy value defensemen late.

As the top dmen start to get picked you can quietly cross them off your list - and catch if the rest of your league has let a valuable blueliner slip to a later round. That's really the goal of defensemen drafting - you gotta' get a good one late so you can keep drafting high octane forwards early.

So, without further ado, here are my revised defensemen rankings, with explanations:

Top 10:

1.       Green (massive points year after year, amazing support, crazy pp production)

2.       Boyle (huge points year after year, amazing support, crazy pp production)

3.       Doughty (post breakout year slumps aside, Doughty is primed for top 3 D numbers)

4.       Keith (low pp numbers and a healthy Campbell knock down his ranking, high scoring team, great support)

5.       Markov (injury plagued season, but paced top 3 D numbers, possible steal in later rounds)

6.       Pronger (Aging but consistent, Pronger is a safe pick in the 6th spot)

7.       Gonchar (Risky pick due to Injury potential, but he will fit in well on Ottawa's pp)

8.       Visnovsky (Perfect replacement for Scotty in Anaheim, great support, solid pp production)

9.       Lidstrom (It's Nick f-ing Lidstrom!)

10.   Streit (Top 10 D points 3 years in a row, Maturing team, lots of pp minutes)

Next 10:

11.   Ehrhoff (Canucks goal scored by D.Sedin, Assists: H.Sedin, Ehrhoff)

12.   Myers (Sophomore slump aside, Myers point totals should continue to impress)

13.   Chara (Has all the tools to bounce back from unusually low point totals in 2009-10)

14.   Pitkanen (Questionable support but coming off great numbers - 46 points in 71gp)

15.   Kaberle (In a sheltered PP heavy environment, Tomas could crack 50 pts)

16.   Edler (With Salo out, expect Edler to get serious pp minutes, SedinSedin, etc)

17.   Weber (Questionable support, booming shot, solid pp numbers)

18.   Zidlicky (great pp numbers, underrated puck mover, team is sorta' weaksauce)

19.   Rafalski (If he plays as good for the Wings as he did against Canada he could crack 50 pts again)

20.   Campbell (38 points in 68 gp last year, should have increased role on condensed blackhawks)

Remaining 10:

21.   Liles (A potential late round steal, 31 points in 59gp, great pp production, high scoring team)

22.   Kubina (Lightning goal scored by Stamkos, Assists: St.Louis, Kubina)

23.   McCabe (This man once featured a pee-wee-esque blue Mohawk in the playoffs)

24.   Timonen (Great support, lots of pp minutes, consistent 40+ blueliner)

25.   Yandle (Can Pheonix continue the trend? If they do, Yandle will be a key ingredient)

26.   Souray (High risk, high reward if he returns to form, better support than last year)

27.   Robidas (Dallas doesn't have much choice but to keep feeding Robidas pp minutes)

28.   Suter (With Hamhuis gone, Suter has the tools to flourish with an increased role)

29.   Jovanovski (34 points in 66gp, anchor of the Pheonix pp, questionable durability)

30.   Goligoski (Great support but questionable skills, 37 points in 69 gp, take him late)

So there you have it. Some controversial decisions include Ehrhoff at 11th, Kaberle dropping out of the Top 10 or Tobias "Kovalchuk point-suck" Enstrom dropping off the board altogether.  I just feel that with Salo out, Ehrhoff will be the Canucks best option on the PP so he will rack up a boatload of assists. As for Kaberle, I feel that the Defensive log-jam may reduce his overall productivity - he will be playing for a new contract, but he did not look good after Phaneuf joined the Leafs.

But in general, carrying these rankings into draft day will help you keep track of how fast defensemen are going and how many equivalent players are left - that way you can feel comfortable NOT drafting a blueliner (and instead drafting a higher point yielding forward) even when you feel it is necessary to fill out your D spots.

On to Goalies!

Before we start, I would just like to say that I hate drafting goalies.

Last year in one league I drafted Roberto Luongo with my 3rd pick and then panicked when Goalies started disappearing early and took Nick Backstrom, whom I had ranked too highly, with my 5th pick. Later, after the draft, I picked Ilya Bryzgalov off waivers, who went on to have considerably better numbers than Luongo and Backstrom that season. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but I still feel like I blew my 5th pick.

 As all Toronto Maple Leafs fans know by now, Goalies are simply maddeningly unpredictable - that's why I like to separate netminders into three different categories: Consistent Performance, Goalies on Great Defensive Teams, and finally, High Risk/Reward.

So first we have to find out, what teams had the best defensive records last season?

1.       New Jersey (2.27 ga/g)

2.       Boston (2.33 ga/g)

3.       Pheonix (2.39 ga/g)

4.       Buffalo (2.45 ga/g)

5.       Calgary (2.48 ga/g)

6.       Chicago (2.48 ga/g)

7.       Detroit (2.52 ga/g)

8.       San Jose (2.55 ga/g)

9.       Los Angeles (2.57 ga/g)

10.   New York R (2.61 ga/g)

That's a pretty tight spread, but it gives you a good idea of what teams will be less likely to be blown-out during the season. This knowledge is crucial in head-to-head fantasy leagues.

Martin Brodeur, Ryan Miller and Henrik Lundqvist would all fit into the "consistent performance" category as well, but in this case I will file them under "Goalies on Great Defensive Teams."

Okay, so let's start looking at Goaltender stats from 2009-10. When it comes to rankings, looking at Games Started vs. Wins, Save% and Shutouts are the most valuable stats. GAA is a better indicator of the team quality while Save% tends to form a better picture of the Goaltender's level of skill.

Brodeur (NJ) 76GS/45W, .916, 9SO

Quick (LA) 72GS/49W, .907, 4SO

Kiprusoff (Cal) 72GS/35W, .920, 4SO

Lundqvist (NYR) 72GS/35W, .921, 4SO

Anderson (Col) 71GS/38W, .917, 7SO

Bryzgalov (Phx) 69GS/42W, .920, 8SO

Miller (Buf) 68GS/41W, .929, 5SO

Luongo (Van) 67GS/40W, .913, 4SO

Fleury (Pit) 66GS/37W, .905, 1SO

Vokoun (Fla) 62GS/23W, .925, 7SO

Howard (Det) 61GS/37W, .924, 3SO

C. Mason (Atl) 61GS/30W, .913, 2SO

Hiller (Ana) 58GS/30W, .918, 2SO

Backstrom (Min) 58GS/26W, .903, 2SO

S.Mason (Clb) 55GS/20W, .901, 5SO

Rinne (Nsh) 54GS/54W, .911, 7SO

Turco (Chi) 52GS/22W, .913, 4SO

Roloson (NYI) 49GS/23W, .907, 1SO

Elliot (Ott) 48GS/29W, .909, 5SO

Ward (Car) 45GS/18W, .916, 0SO

Halak (Stl) 43GS/26W, .924, 5SO

Rask (Bos) 39GS/22W, .931, 5SO

Gustavsson (Tor) 39GS/16W, .902, 1SO

Price (Mtl) 39GS/13W, .912, 0SO

Smith (TB) 36GS/13W, .900, 2SO

Niemi (SJ) 35GS/26W, .912, 7SO

Giguere (Tor) 32GS/10W, .907, 3SO

Leighton (Phi) 31GS/17W, .905, 1SO

Varlamov (Was) 23GS/15W, .909, 2SO

Okay, that's 29 very draftable goalies - below you can find the goalies split into the three categories mentioned above, with explanations:

Category 1: "Goalies on Great Defensive Teams"

1.       Brodeur (workhorse, great Numbers, consistent, high SO totals...aging)

2.       Miller (workhorse, spectacular save%, consistent)

3.       Rask (high skill level, great D support...will Thomas still get played?)

4.       Bryzgalov (workhorse, spectacular save%, can PHX repeat their success? )

5.       Lundqvist (workhorse, spectacular save%, questionable support quality)

6.       Kiprusoff (workhorse, spectacular save%, questionable support quality)

7.       Turco (amazing support, decent save%, win totals should skyrocket)

8.       Howard (amazing support, spectacular save%, high win totals)

9.       Quick (workhorse, high win totals, great support, average save%)

10.   Niemi (high skill level, great support...how many games will he start???)

Category 2:  Goalies featuring "Consistent Performance"

1.       Luongo (amazing support, team improved at D, decent save%, consistent high win totals)

2.       Vokoun (questionable support, consistent excellent numbers, spectacular save%, high SO totals)

3.       Ward (injury shortened season but still a consistently solid goaltender)

4.       Anderson (workhorse, great save%, high SO totals, high win totals)

5.       Fleury (amazing support, team improved at D, average save%, consistent high win totals)

6.       Hiller (high skill level, questionable support, great save%, decent win totals)

7.       Rinne (great support, great save%, should get more starts this year)

8.       Backstrom (so-so year in 2009, questionable support, average save%)

9.       Giguere (platoon goalie, consistent track record, improved team)

10.   C.Mason (underrated goalie, but does anyone really know how good/bad Atlanta will be this year?)

Category 3: Goalies that are "High Risk/Reward"

1.       Varlamov (average goalie with amazing support, should have high win totals)

2.       Leighton (great support, should be #1, potential for high win totals)

3.       Halak (high skill level, unknown how Halak will fare in St.Louis, amazing numbers)

4.       Smith (average goalie with increasingly better support, potential for wins)

5.       Price (finally a starter, price has potential for wins, decent save%)

6.       Elliot (possible platoon with Leclaire, average save%, potential for wins)

7.       Gustavsson (platoon goalie, high skill level, unproven but on improved team)

8.       Roloson (solid but aging wonder...pick if desperate in late rounds)

9.       S. Mason (reclamation project, if he bounces back to 2008 form he could be valuable)

I would recommend drafting out of categories 1 and 2, since those goaltenders are generally in a better position to succeed.

Drafting goalies is dangerous because sometimes a large amount of them can vanish between picks. One fantasy GM takes a goalie, and everyone else panics and follows suit. A good rule of thumb when you are deciding between drafting a forward or a goalie, is to find the number of picks between your current and next pick, usually 9 picks in a ten team league, and then scan your rankings to find the next 9 players available in both of those positions. If the next 9 forwards are more equivalent than the next 9 goalies, you should draft a goalie. If there are still tons of good goalies left, but only 3 80+ forwards remaining, you want to snag one of those forwards just in case they all disappear between your current and next pick. Every draft is different - you gotta stay on your toes!

Well, that just about does it. I hope some of your found this as helpful as I'm sure I will heading into Draft Day.

Please feel free to poke holes in my rankings in the comments section.

Cheers,

TML Siege (In Vancouver)