FanPost

How is McKegg Progressing as a Prospect? A Comparison to Kadri!

Hey PPPers! I have been liking Greg McKegg's production this year (particularly) as a third round pick and I decided to look at how he has been doing. To do that I compared him to the organizations top prospect, Nazem Kadri. This analysis is based purely on simple statistics (G, A, Pts, PIMs) looking at them in a per game manner.

If this sounds interesting to you read on after the jump!

First we have Kadri's OHL career:

Nazem Kadri

Regular Season

Playoffs

GP

G/GP

A/GP

Pts/GP

PIM/GP

GP

G/GP

A/GP

Pts/GP

PIM/GP

Two Years Before Draft

2006-2007

62

0.11

0.24

0.35

0.48

9

0.00

0.22

0.22

0.44

One Year Before Draft

2007-2008

68

0.37

0.59

0.96

0.84

20

0.45

0.85

1.30

1.30

Draft Year

2008-2009

56

0.45

0.95

1.39

0.55

14

0.64

0.86

1.50

1.57

First Year Overager

2009-2010

56

0.63

1.04

1.66

1.88

12

0.75

1.50

2.25

2.17

Total

242

0.38

0.69

1.07

0.92

55

0.49

0.89

1.38

1.42

Then we have Greg McKegg's OHL career:

Greg McKegg

Regular Season

Playoffs

GP

G/GP

A/GP

Pts/GP

PIM/GP

GP

G/GP

A/GP

Pts/GP

PIM/GP

One Year Before Draft

2008-2009

64

0.13

0.16

0.28

0.34

5

0.40

0.20

0.60

0.80

Draft Year

2009-2010

67

0.55

0.72

1.27

0.48

4

0.50

0.25

0.75

0.00

First Year Overager

2010-2011

45

0.69

0.67

1.36

0.69

Total

177

0.43

0.51

0.94

0.48

9

0.44

0.22

0.67

0.44

Finally I simply subtracted McKegg's from Kadri's stats (note I didn't do the same calendar year, I did the same year in their careers relative to draft year):

Difference (Kadri-McKegg)

Regular Season

Playoffs

GP

G/GP

A/GP

Pts/GP

PIM/GP

GP

G/GP

A/GP

Pts/GP

PIM/GP

One Year Before Draft

2008-2009

0.24

0.43

0.67

0.49

0.05

0.65

0.70

0.50

Draft Year

2009-2010

-0.11

0.23

0.12

0.08

0.14

0.61

0.75

1.57

First Year Overager

2010-2011

-0.06

0.37

0.31

1.19




Total

-0.05

0.18

0.13

0.44

0.05

0.67

0.72

0.97

*Note= Italicized stats show places where McKegg did better. Bold stats show places where Kadri did better. Normal (font) stats show places where they were approximately equal (within +/- 0.05 of each other.)

So what do I notice?

  1. I don't think the playoff comparisons can really be done fairly for two reasons. (1) McKegg's sample size is so small and (2) McKegg doesn't have overager playoff stats yet)
  2. Kadri has done better in every area but goal scoring.
  3. In goal scoring McKegg has actually been better the last two years (not by that much, but more than .05 goals per game) and his career average fell into the zone of what I considered equal (+/- 0.05). **Note to readers=yes I do realize how arbitrary differnce there is between -.06 and -.05 but the line had to be drawn somewhere).
  4. McKegg definitely gets a lot less PIMs. I don't know what this means, I'll leave it to others to judge.
  5. McKegg's draft year was pretty comparable to Kadri in assists and points (~1 assist less per 4 games and ~1 point less per 8 games)
  6. Their career A (~1 more per 5 games played) and points (~1 more per 8 games played).
  7. Kadri's assists and total points are much better in his over ager year.

So now this analysis would lead me to say that McKegg is coming along quite nicely and comparable to Kadri in many ways (over the last 2 years, and his OHL total). Unfortunately at this point in my analysis I noticed that there was a key problem in this analysis. Kadri's "Totals" row included a rookie year where he was a year younger than McKegg. During that year he did quite poorly (understandable for such a young player). Therefore if I compare Both of their totals for just a three year career (from one year before draft to one year after draft we get the following):

GP

G/GP

A/GP

Pts/GP

PIM/GP

GP

G/GP

A/GP

Pts/GP

PIM/GP

Kadri's 3 Year Totals

180

0.47

0.84

1.31

1.07

46

0.59

1.02

1.61

1.61

McKegg's 3 Year Totals

177

0.43

0.51

0.94

0.48

9

0.44

0.22

0.67

0.44

Difference (Kadri-McKegg)

3

0.04

0.33

0.37

0.59

37

0.14

0.80

0.94

1.16

Now what does THIS show us?

  1. For their (regular season) careers the have been very similar in goal scoring.
  2. (In the regular season) Kadri has been consistently ahead in Assists and points (both of which are about 1 more in every 3 games)
  3. It really is silly to be comparing their playoffs as McKegg has played less than 20% of the playoff games Kadri has. 9 GP is simply too small a sample size.

So in conclusion McKegg seems to be progressing well. Is goal scoring for his career is on par with Kadri's and over the last two years has surpassed it. His assists/points are about 1/3GP behind him in his career, the same this year, and a smaller difference in their draft years. To me that looks pretty good and not THAT far behind.
Cheers, BCapp

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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