FanPost

Burke's so-called "Accelerated Rebuild" (Authors note: this is a follow up to Daoust's awesome post)

Hey PPPers,

Before I say anything else this is a follow up to Daoust's awesome fanpost.  So please go read that article.  I have taken some of his data, his graphs, and (obviously) the motivation to write this fan post from him.  So to reiterate most of the work was done by him.  I just added a few things...

Anyway here I will look at two things.

  1. Burke's net draft picks, with a mathematical analysis of their likelihood to play 100 NHL games (from Cullen's piece)
  2. Daoust looked at the prospects that Burke has brought in and sent out.  I have taken this a little further and just looked at all of the players 25 or younger that he has brought in and sent out.

As always if this sounds interesting read on!

So first is the draft picks.  I used Cullen's analysis of draft picks from 1995-2004 he gave two stats by position drafted:

 

  1. Likelihood to play 100 NHL games in their career (pretty simple)
  2. The average "value" of a player according to a 10 point scale explained here:
10 - Generational (Alexander OvechkinEvgeni Malkin )
9 - Elite Player (Ilya KovalchukDany Heatley )
8 - First Line, Top Pair D (Thomas VanekDion Phaneuf )
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D (Daymond LangkowChris Phillips ) 
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D (Daniel ClearyDavid Legwand )
5 - NHL Regular (Michael RuppBoyd Devereaux )
4 - Fringe NHLer (Kris BeechKrystofer Kolanos )
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer (Pavel BrendlJeff Heerema )
2 - Minor Leaguer, maybe gets a shot in NHL (Chris HajtDaniel Tkaczuk )
1 - No NHL games (Matt Zultek, Luca Cereda )

 

Round

In

Out

Difference

Likelihood to Play 100 NHL games

Players gained or lost

Average Player Rating per Round

Value of Player(s) We Lost/Gained

1st

 

2

-2

0.67

-1.34

4.94

-9.88

2nd

5

2

3

0.283

0.849

2.68

8.04

3rd

1

2

-1

0.235

-0.235

2.38

-2.38

4th

2

1

1

0.16

0.16

1.88

1.88

5th

2

1

1

0.12

0.12

2

1.72

6th

1

1

0

0.14

0

1.91

0

7th

2

2

0

0.085

0

1.64

0

TOTAL

13

11

2

N/A

-0.446

N/A

-0.62

Second I looked at how many players Burke picked up or sent out under 25.  When we are talking about a rebuild it is important to look at what he's doing with young players.

Age

In

Out

Difference

19

Phillipe Paradis

Phillipe Paradis

No change (note same player)

20

Keith Aulie

 

One brought in

21

Luca Caputi

Jiri Tlusty

1 sent out

Bill Sweatt (Rights)

Jimmy Hayes

Phil Kessel

Chris DiDomenico

 

Mikhail Stephanovich

22

Chris Peluso

 

2 brought in

Marcel Mueller

 

23

Tyler Bozak

 

6 brought in

Christian Hanson

Ben Scrivens

 

Jussi Rynnas

 

Brayden Irwin

 

Simon Gysbers

 

24

Matt Jones

Viktor Stalberg

3 brought in

Matt Lashoff

 

Mike Brennan

 

Kris Versteeg

 

25

Fabian Brunnstrom

 

4 brought in

Jonas Gustavsson

Mike Brown

 

Clarke MacArthur

 

Feel free to have a look and I will add my analysis soon.  Again thanks to Daoust.

Cheers,

BCapp

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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