## Burke's so-called "Accelerated Rebuild" (Authors note: this is a follow up to Daoust's awesome post)

Hey PPPers,

Before I say anything else this is a follow up to Daoust's awesome fanpost.  So please go read that article.  I have taken some of his data, his graphs, and (obviously) the motivation to write this fan post from him.  So to reiterate most of the work was done by him.  I just added a few things...

Anyway here I will look at two things.

1. Burke's net draft picks, with a mathematical analysis of their likelihood to play 100 NHL games (from Cullen's piece)
2. Daoust looked at the prospects that Burke has brought in and sent out.  I have taken this a little further and just looked at all of the players 25 or younger that he has brought in and sent out.

As always if this sounds interesting read on!

So first is the draft picks.  I used Cullen's analysis of draft picks from 1995-2004 he gave two stats by position drafted:

1. Likelihood to play 100 NHL games in their career (pretty simple)
2. The average "value" of a player according to a 10 point scale explained here:
10 - Generational (Alexander OvechkinEvgeni Malkin )
9 - Elite Player (Ilya KovalchukDany Heatley )
8 - First Line, Top Pair D (Thomas VanekDion Phaneuf )
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D (Daymond LangkowChris Phillips )
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D (Daniel ClearyDavid Legwand )
5 - NHL Regular (Michael RuppBoyd Devereaux )
4 - Fringe NHLer (Kris BeechKrystofer Kolanos )
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer (Pavel BrendlJeff Heerema )
2 - Minor Leaguer, maybe gets a shot in NHL (Chris HajtDaniel Tkaczuk )
1 - No NHL games (Matt Zultek, Luca Cereda )

 Round In Out Difference Likelihood to Play 100 NHL games Players gained or lost Average Player Rating per Round Value of Player(s) We Lost/Gained 1st 2 -2 0.67 -1.34 4.94 -9.88 2nd 5 2 3 0.283 0.849 2.68 8.04 3rd 1 2 -1 0.235 -0.235 2.38 -2.38 4th 2 1 1 0.16 0.16 1.88 1.88 5th 2 1 1 0.12 0.12 2 1.72 6th 1 1 0 0.14 0 1.91 0 7th 2 2 0 0.085 0 1.64 0 TOTAL 13 11 2 N/A -0.446 N/A -0.62

Second I looked at how many players Burke picked up or sent out under 25.  When we are talking about a rebuild it is important to look at what he's doing with young players.

 Age In Out Difference 19 Phillipe Paradis Phillipe Paradis No change (note same player) 20 Keith Aulie One brought in 21 Luca Caputi Jiri Tlusty 1 sent out Bill Sweatt (Rights) Jimmy Hayes Phil Kessel Chris DiDomenico Mikhail Stephanovich 22 Chris Peluso 2 brought in Marcel Mueller 23 Tyler Bozak 6 brought in Christian Hanson Ben Scrivens Jussi Rynnas Brayden Irwin Simon Gysbers 24 Matt Jones Viktor Stalberg 3 brought in Matt Lashoff Mike Brennan Kris Versteeg 25 Fabian Brunnstrom 4 brought in Jonas Gustavsson Mike Brown Clarke MacArthur

Feel free to have a look and I will add my analysis soon.  Again thanks to Daoust.

Cheers,

BCapp

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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