Nazem Kadri is a Bust... Or is He?

by BCapp on Oct 22, 2011 10:16 AM EDT

~~The mouth breathers~~ (Authors edit) Hockey fans are out and while they can't knock the Leafs' record thus far they have instead switched to knocking our top prospect, Nazem Kadri. From the mainstream media (newspaper and televsion commentator alike), to bloggers, to your average Leafs fan on the street, people are saying things along the lines of: "Whats the deal with Kadri? If he doesn't do something, and I mean a big something, soon than I think thats it." or "Burke seems to be running out of patience with this kid." This is complete and utter nonsense, because Kadri is *young*.

Now I could show you that Kadri has produced fine relative to his draft class but that has been done already by Willis on Leafs Nation. Instead I will look at Burke's history with first rounders through his GM years in Vancouver, Anaheim, and Toronto (not including Hartford because he was only there one year).

The data set:

Vancouver
Picked by Burke			Started under Burke
Year	Player	Pick	Year	Player	Pick
1998	Bryan Allen	4th	1996	Josh Holden	12th
1999	Daniel Sedin	2nd
1999	Henrik Sedin	3rd
2000	Nathan Smith	23rd
2001	RJ Umberger	16th
2003	Ryan Kesler	23rd

Anaheim
Picked by Burke			Started under Burke
Year	Player	Pick	Year	Player	Pick
2005	Bobby Ryan	2nd	2003	Ryan Getzlaf	19th
2006	Mark Mitera	19th	2008	Corey Perry	28th
2007	Logan MacMilan	19th
2008	Jake Gardiner	17th

Toronto
Picked by Burke			Started under Burke
Year	Player	Pick	Year	Player	Pick
2009	Nazem Kadri	7th	2008	Jake Gardiner	17th
2011	Tyler Biggs	22nd	2008	Joe Colborne	16th
2011	Stuart Percy	25th

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To look at these players I looked at their production in their first NHL season by goals per game (GPG), points per game (PPG), and average time on ice per game (ATOI). For their rookie season, I noted how many years had past since their draft (ie RNH would be first this year and Hall would be second). Here are all the players (except for Biggs and Percy as they were drafted this year) sorted by how many seasons had passed between their draft and rookie year:

			First Season						Goal Break out Season		Points Break Out Season		Notes
Year	Player	Pick	Age (as of Jan 1st)	Season After Draft	GP	GPG	PPG	ATOI	Age (as of Jan 1)	Season After Draft	Age (as of Jan 1)	Season After Draft
2003	Ryan Kesler	23rd	19	1st	28	0.07	0.18	10:42	26	8	24	6	He lost out on his second year in the NHL due to the lockout
1999	Henrik Sedin	3rd	20	2nd	82	0.11	0.35	13:31	Not a big goal scorer		25	7	(He broke out even more at 29, 11th year after draft)
2009	Nazem Kadri	7th	20	2nd	29	0.1	0.41	15:47
1999	Daniel Sedin	2nd	20	2nd	75	0.27	0.45	13:00	26	8	26	8	(He broke out even more (for points) at 29, 11th year after draft)
1998	Bryan Allen	4th	20	3rd	6	0	0	9:20	Became NHL regular at 23 (6 seasons after being drafted)				Became top 4 dman (<20 minutes the following season)
1996	Josh Holden	12th	21	3rd	30	0.07	0.2	12:44	Never happened				He never became an NHL regular (60 total NHL games)
2005	Bobby Ryan	2	20	3rd	23	0.22	0.43	11:16	21	4	21	4	While Bobby Ryan didn't even make the team to start his 4th year post draft, it was rumoured that he was threatening a trade if they did not bring him up AND that he was being kept down for cap reasons
2003	Corey Perry	28th	20	3rd	56	0.23	0.45	11:34	22	5	23	6	He had an even bigger break out last year (26 and 9th year post draft)
2003	Ryan Getzlaf	19th	20	3rd	57	0.25	0.68	12:35	20	3	22	5	His goal scoring has been consistent since his rookie season
2008	Joe Colborne	16th	21	3rd	1	0	1.00	18:41	Still a prospect				He's point per game! Wooo!
2008	Jake Gardiner	17th	21	4th	2	0	0	12:50	Still a prospect
2000	Nathan Smith	23rd	21	4th	2	0	0	5:16	Never happened				He never became an NHL regular (26 total NHL games)
2001	RJ Umberger	16th	23	5th	73	0.27	0.52	13:14	23	5	25	7	He did 3 years of NCAA hockey (2 years after being drafted) and then went to the Canucks intending to attempt to make the roster, but due to contract disputes sat out the season. He didn't enter the league under Burke. As well his goal breakout was at 2
2007	Logan MacMilan	19th	N/A						Never happened				Still hasn't made the NHL in his 5th year after being drafted and is now a Flames "prospect"
2006	Mark Mitera	19th	N/A						Never happened				Still hasn't made the NHL in his 6th year after being drafted and is now a Habs "prospect"

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So the first question is when did these guys make the NHL and how does Kadri compare?

via i.imgur.com

As you can see, Kadri (the red rectangle) had his rookie season pretty early, relative to the others. Burke usually waits longer before he brings these guys to the NHL. Similarly for age, only Ryan Kesler was younger than him in his rookie season.

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The next question is how does he compare in his rookie season production? Here are the GPG and PPGs of rookie seasons for the forwards in this list who made the NHL (minus Colborne and his one game):

via i.imgur.com

As you can see Kadri's goal scoring is a tad low and his point scoring is middle of the pack. Considering he is one of the younger guys in the list I am very happy with that.

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Finally, the most important question, when did these guys break out?

Goal Scoring
Year Drafted	Player	Pick	Breakout Year Age	Season after Draft
2005	Ryan Kesler	23rd	26	8
1999	Daniel Sedin	2nd	26	8
1996	Corey Perry	28th	22	5
2001	RJ Umberger	16th	23	5
2008	Bobby Ryan	2nd	21	4
2007	Ryan Getzlaf	19th	20	3
		Average	23.00	5.50

Point Scoring
Year Drafted	Player	Pick	Breakout Year Age	Season after Draft
1999	Daniel Sedin	2nd	26	8
1998	Henrik Sedin	3rd	25	7
2001	RJ Umberger	16th	25	7
2005	Ryan Kesler	23rd	24	6
1996	Corey Perry	28th	23	6
2007	Ryan Getzlaf	19th	22	5
2008	Bobby Ryan	2nd	21	4
		Average	23.71	6.14

As you can see most of these players didn't break out until 23-24 for either goal or point scoring in their 5th-7th season.

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So where does that leave us? Well Kadri had his rookie season as early, or earlier, than all but one first rounder Burke has ever dealt with (Kesler). Even so, his rookie season compares fine to the other forwards, with middle of the pack point scoring and slightly low goal scoring. Most importantly, the average forward on this list broke out for goals at 23 (5.5 seasons after being drafted) and at 23.71 (6.14 season after being drafted) for points. Further except for Getzlaf's goal scoring breakout year, all breakout years happened at 21 or older and 4th season post draft or later. Kadri, at 21 and in his 3rd season post draft, is doing fine developmentally and probably will *not* reach his full offensive potential for another couple years. We definitely should *not* be calling him a bust AND we shouldn't be concerned if he doesn't yet produce that much this year.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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Flagged

For stats, If you just watched the games you would see Kadri is a bust.

Amidoinitrite?

by Huey2k2 on Oct 19, 2011 4:16 PM EDT reply actions

you're shooting miles high on this.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. Experiencing cheering whiplash for decades..

by Wan Ihite on Oct 19, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

You messed up Gardiners draft year in the table. Says 2000.

by TheCeej on Oct 19, 2011 4:57 PM EDT reply actions

They are all incorrect. They must not have switched when I resorted the data in excel. I’ll fix it, thanks

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 19, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Done.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 19, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

eye opening

great stats & research BCapp…. you did your due diligence for all of us! i’m all about patience, so i hope everyone else is patient too (with kadri)… the kid obviously has skills (just watch him handle the puck!)… he just needs more time to adjust to the big game.

by magecanuck on Oct 19, 2011 5:51 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting analysis. One thing I wonder, though, is when did these players each become NHL regulars, and how good was each player relative to the season during which he stuck around for the full year (or most of it, say 50-60 games)? For example, if all of the players who we would now consider to be first liners stuck in the NHL by the time they were 20, then that might be a useful benchmark to look at.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull

by Draglikepull on Oct 19, 2011 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

When they became NHL regulars

Player/Season after draft/Age
Kesler/3rd/21 (could have been a year earlier but the lockout).
Both Sedin’s/2nd/20
Bryan Allen/6th/23
Ryan/4th/21
Perry/3rd/20
Getzlaf/3rd/20
Umberger/5th/23 (but he had salary disputes

The rest are either still prospects (Kadri/Colbourne/Gardiner) or busts (MacMilan, Mitera, and Holden)

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 19, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

So if we go based on those guys who have turned out to be really good NHLers (Kesler, Sedins, Ryan, Perry, Getzlaf), we should really be hoping that Kadri finds a way to stick around this season.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull

by Draglikepull on Oct 20, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

For 50ish games sure. But he doesn’t have to breakout for a while longer.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 20, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Since I live in Washington, DC...

I’m not subject to the myriad coverage of the Leafs in Toronto (especially during this extended homestand). When I first read that Kadri was taking another turn with the Marlies, my thoughts were, “Great! Let ‘em develop a bit more with Eakins and Co. Besides, it seems that it’s a bit crowded with the Buds right now, anyway.”

To read your post, BCapp, it makes me think that some of the sports writers in Toronto are trying to capitalize on the recent success of the Leafs (read: 4-0-1) by writing something (anything!) about the Leafs. From the perspective of, “I need to meet my deadline and I need to get more pageviews/sell more papers,” this makes sense. Unfortunately, for those in the audience not aware of these sorts of tactics, it can be hard to tell the difference.
~

Anyway — great post, BCapp — thanks for “Keeping ’em Honest!”

"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

by Jeremiah Stanghini on Oct 19, 2011 10:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Nice work, but I think if you’re going to call “mouth breathers” out, you should do it properly and show exactly who you’re talking about. This just feels very strawman-y to me as I’ve yet to see or hear any sort of argument against Kadri this season. Then again, I avoid sources that have an extensive history of being idiotic.

Minister of Obscenities - Armstrong Fan Club

by A Lindros Jaw on Oct 20, 2011 7:45 AM EDT reply actions

The TSN message board makes both your points…

A recent history of idiocy…

"You said you didn't give a f#%k about hockey. And I never saw someone say that before..."

by TheBurnward on Oct 20, 2011 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions

So there are your examples of mouth breathers

Here is an example of a blogger (VLM’s article that was in the FTB the other day):

I think, fair or not, the team is disappointed in Kadri. I’m not sure if they expected him to play a lot better early last season (we have discussed this here, of course). They claim to have been satisfied with his late-season efforts. But I believe he was "on the table" when trade talks were taking place this past summer, and I have to believe that, if the right package was offered up, Kadri would be gone—even though he was indeed Burke’s first "first-round" draft selection with the Leafs. He is coming back from a relatively minor injury now, but I wonder if they are really feeling as patient as they would like us to think they actually are.

It was actually this quote that got me to write a comment in the FTB a few days ago that turned into this article. I don’t see any evidence that Burke is impatient with Kadri now and his history with first rounders suggests he shouldn’t be either.

I have also heard it on tv (analysts/reporters). If you want newspapers I can find them too if you’d like.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 20, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Ahh yes, I recall the VLM thing now, and yeah, that was off base. Any article entitled “10 things we can’t know for sure, but that I sense Leaf management really feels” pretty much loses its credibility at the title.

I hate to nitpick, but I still haven’t seen a single MSM source calling out Kadri.

Minister of Obscenities - Armstrong Fan Club

by A Lindros Jaw on Oct 20, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I can’t find it now, but there was an article out when he first got injured that basically said, “management isn’t happy with him after 2 bad preseasons…”

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 20, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Found it

Kadri a Growing Concern for Leafs from Michael Traikos at the Post

Happy now?

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 20, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

haha, yes. Sorry if you think I’m a pain in the ass, but it’s nice to see what you’re specifically arguing against, rather than a general sentiment that really isn’t all that general.

Minister of Obscenities - Armstrong Fan Club

by A Lindros Jaw on Oct 20, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha

No worries. If nothing else I am also (ideally) providing tools to people to shove in the faces of idiots if they see these ridiculous statements AND (in the last part) showing people that he doesn’t need to break out this year, next, or even the year after.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 20, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

BCAPP B PATIENT

Kadri should be a good player.. From what I have seen on TV and on highlights .. he has talent… B Patient and develop him. JVR is finally coming into his game and he was not a big super player his first year and a half in the NHL. JVR looked light years behind Patrick Kane in the SCF in 2010 which is funny because Kane went first and JVR second. Yet JVR is really coming into his game now. Seguin looked average in Boston but I am sure he will be a stud in a few years too. Hall didnt look good better than average his first year in the NHL now he looks like a solid goal scorer.

I think if Toronto fans be patient (which is not easy considering all those years that they have not made the playoffs.) .. Develop him.. he should be a really great player.

FLYERROB ! YOU STAY AWESOME FLYERS FANS ! ~ ~ ~ Lori Wilson Gray ~ ~ April 07th 1967 - May 27th 2011 ~ May you rest in Peace ~ I love you and miss you big Sis ! I cant believe at 44 yrs of age .. you went to sleep and never woke up. I promise to take care of Matt and Emily for you. With Love, your baby Brother.

by FLYERROB on Oct 20, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Like the comment in the FTB, thanks for this.

Kadri was nearly PPG in the AHL last year which is precisely where he should be in his development, in my mind. I’m not worried.

http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com

by Curt S on Oct 21, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

My pleasure

Writing that comment inspired me to do this post.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 21, 2011 10:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Nothing in there from the author that says Kadri is a “bust”

"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski

by MapleLeafMole on Oct 21, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Its the general tone of the article (and the title)

That is implying that the Leafs should be nervous or uncomfortable because that was his 3rd training camp, regardless of him getting hurt.

But yeah I was basing it off my memory when I first wrote the post, and my memory had the article being more inflammatory.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 21, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think it’s fair to call VLM a ‘mouthbreather’ based on the above (and given his track record of solid blogging). Saying the team is ‘disappointed’ in Kadri is not the same as calling him a bust. I’ll be honest, I’m dissapointed in Kadri – I had (unrealistic) high hopes that he could come in as a 19 or 20-year old and make a difference, I’m sure others did as well, perhaps including Burke and co. We were clearly wrong. But that doesn’t mean anyone thinks he’s a bust, I certainly don’t anyway. Lots of great players took several years to hit their stride (like you nicely showed above), to declare him a ‘bust’ now at age 21 is totally ridiculous.

The comment that the Leafs may have lost patience may actually be true, but that also doesn’t mean they think he’s a bust. He’s perhaps just a little less ‘untouchable’ than he once was.

I had something really clever to say here. But I forgot.

by daoust on Oct 22, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

There I got rid of the mouth breathers comment.

If people are disappointed with Kadri it probably has way more to do with their unrealistic expectations than with him not doing well. What I attempted to show in my analysis is that I doubt Burke et al are disappointed with his progress because it compares well to previous first rounders that Burke has dealt with.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 23, 2011 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Great post, definitely rec’d.

"You said you didn't give a f#%k about hockey. And I never saw someone say that before..."

by TheBurnward on Oct 20, 2011 8:59 AM EDT reply actions

TL;DR

Bust.

Pumps out more male with one thrust of the pelvis than the United States postal service over the last 146 years.

by Blinky on Oct 20, 2011 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I tip my hat to you, sir.

This was a truly necessary post.

A while back, when the Mike Richards trade happened, I remember looking at Kadri’s versus Richards’ per game stats over their careers (OHL and NHL). They were very comparable. I would not be surprised if Kadri had a similar career trajectory to Richards. We can probably expect some very good production from Kadri at worst by next season, if not this season (if RW finds a place for him in the lineup).

by stevesmith19 on Oct 21, 2011 6:30 PM EDT reply actions

Wow, thats a whole lot of charts.. i am impress

also

kadri is not a bust..small sample size.

Glenn Healy..go fuck yourself.
MGK Lover

by Future_considerations on Oct 22, 2011 10:58 AM EDT reply actions

Great post

I’ve had a few friends ask me about Kadri and I tell them give him a few more years. I do not believe Kadri is a bust and I refuse to call him that before his 25th birthday. I firmly believe he will need another year or two just to crack the top two lines on merit rather than being one of the top six forwards on the team.

Anyone who calls Kadri a bust is an idiot.

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by RJinSoCal on Oct 22, 2011 11:42 AM EDT reply actions

This post gets a rec from me.

by lucc on Oct 22, 2011 12:01 PM EDT reply actions

Calling any NHL

player from the first round a bust less than 3 years into their career is totally absurd, particularly when they’re virtually a ppg player in their rookie AHL season under the age of 21, and they actually put up points in a top 6 role in the NHL early on.

People that call Kadri a bust are frankly morons that don’t know what the hell they’re talking about.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 22, 2011 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs