Giving a Value to Fronting

There’s no correlation between teams who block more shots and teams who have fewer goals against. Using the last three years’ data, the r-squared relationship between total blocked shots and total goals against (excluding empty net goals) is 0.1079. Using just even strength goals (which also would include empty net goals), that number is 0.1388. There’s really no excuse – we’d be much better off with strong defensemen tying up sticks or dumping guys on their asses whenever a shot goes off.

I keep writing and re-writing a reply to this, and keep finding more and more logic holes in what you’re trying to say so I’ll just sum it up by saying that I feel the data you have represented cannot be used to make any point about a correlation between fronting, blocking shots, and increased goals against.

I’m rather surprised that no one here mentioned the Rangers. Torts employs a very complex collapsing system that uses fronting, but encourages players to tie up sticks, push out bodies, and let the puck hit them where it may. You’ll rarely see a defenseman go down to block a shot because they’re too busy engaging with forwards in front of the net.

They are the best defensive units in the NHL, bar none.

Just food for thought.

blame a goal on fronting. Because you have no idea if the shot would go in on the alternative option.

If they didn’t front but they tied up the guys stick (or tried to) you can’t say they wouldn’t still have scored a goal.

correlates to? Shitty Corsi numbers.

Pearson R is -0.588 for BF/60 to Corsi ON for D men with over 40 GP from the past 4 years.

So just looking at blocked shots and goals against probably isn’t a good plan, because reality is, teams blocking the most shots are surrendering the most shot attempts…

compare two offensive tactics and discuss their effectiveness in a similar fashion to what you’re proposing here.

Let’s say the difference between carrying the puck across the blue line as you enter the zone vs. dump and chase.

You might think one tactic is superior to another. How do you verify which it is? Do you oversimplify and say correlate number of dump ins to GF? or times the puck is carried across the blue line to GF?

There’s a problem with that logic. A team that has the puck a lot might PREDOMINANTLY carry the puck across the blue line, but will still on occasion dump it in. In fact theoretically they could dump it in more often than a team that ONLY dumps the puck in, but hardly ever has the puck in their possession. Either way, you’re assuming the team that has more GF is using better tactics because of the result you’re observing irrespective to whether the tactic and the result are connected. For all you know the team that scores more goals just has better players that execute their job more effectively. They actually might score a lot of goals on the dump in, but that hasn’t got much to do with their choice in tactics.

I just think dividing the data you’re looking at from a choice in tactics is something that requires a SHITload of effort, and I don’t know how you get it to a level of detail that makes fair comparison’s possible.

we can say a couple of things.

1. Blocking shots DOES have an impact on shots on goal (i.e. making it their target)
2. Fronting is generally advocated as a method that increases the likelihood of successfully blocking shots.
3. If you fail to block the shot when fronting, you’re fucked defensively because the Forward can scoop the rebound if your goalie gives one up.

If all you focus on is 3, then yes you’re going to see a problem with fronting. If 1. and 2. are accurate, then it’s not as horribly flawed as you’re making it out to be.

Leafs are likely reducing their goals against by blocking the shots they do, but unfortunately the reality is they don’t control the play enough to keep their GA down.

Until the Leafs dominate from a possession standpoint, their GA will continue to be high… whether or not they front is irrelevant to that point, as it largely has to do with how they operate when they DON’T have the puck… and in many ways, the game is harder to win when the other team is controlling the puck.

Fronting is a terrible strategy. Never liked playing it. It’s waaaay too easy to lose the forward behind you. And it’s redundant in the sense that you have two players — the defenseman and the goalie — playing the shot and no one playing the pass. Just an all around bad idea.

on the PK, the correlation between blocked shots for and attempts that make it on goal is -0.65… not as significant as at ES, but still relatively significant.

Why do they gotta front?

Long time reader, first time poster.

I wanted to suggest that just mentioning the R^2 has limited use by itself. Even high absolute values come up by chance. Also, they can be noise if variables have a non-linear relationship. The p-value would be helpful to clear up that uncertainty.

Advanced stats make my head hurt. They also remind me of the worst course I ever took in university.