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A Comedy of Errors - Part Five, in which, Impossibly, Things Get Worse

2004draft3_medium

Welcome back. I haven't heard any reports of any messy suicides in the GTA, so I'm hoping this means you all managed to curb your natural instincts to cause yourself permanent physical harm at the reminder that, in arguably the strongest draft of all time, we didn't pick until #57 because we just HAD to have Owen Nolan. Unfortunately...it's not going to get any better just yet because I'm genuinely starting to think that, contrary to popular belief, 2003 wasn't the worst draft job the Maple Leafs have done in the recent history. I think 2004 takes that honour, and I'll explain why as I go along. This one I will understand if you disagree with, but for me 2004 might be worse as a whole because of the chain reaction kicked off by one of the picks.

Star-divide

The scene, first. After one of the tightest divisional battles in years, Toronto finished the year with 103 points, good for fourth in the Eastern Conference - Boston won the division and secured the second seed with 104 points, while Ottawa ensured the running battle would continue into the playoffs by finishing fifth in the conference, tallying 102 points. A seven-game victory over the Senators was followed by a six-game loss at the hands of the Flyers, who themselves got bounced by eventual winners Tampa Bay. Our first-round pick, slated to be #19, went to New York as part of the Brian Leetch trade, and the Rangers picked Lauri Korpikoski with it. Wikipedia fails to record what happened to our second-round pick but, regardless, we made our first appearance at #90, picking...

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0523fe414799a711f26c2066e630_medium

Round 3, #90 Overall - Justin POGGE

7 GP - 1-4-1, 0.844 SV%, 4.35 GAA

Pogge is a name we're all aware of and he is the foundation of my suspicion that 2004 might have done more damage to Toronto than 2003. 2003 was bad, but it's long since become the accepted wisdom that when trying to decide which of their star goaltending prospects to trade away for an established netminder, the Toronto front office chose wrongly. Very wrongly. Rather than flipping Pogge, Tuukka Rask was sent to Boston for Andrew Raycroft, who was succeeded by Vesa Toskala, who was of course apocalyptically awful and himself supplanted by Jonas Gustavsson and J.S. Giguere, who were themselves dethroned by James Reimer, the man we're currently pinning all of our hopes on. I posit this - had we traded away Pogge, while the Raycroft deal would have happened I believe Rask was good enough in 2007 that we don't trade for Toskala. It doesn't solve all of our problems, but in trading Pogge, we keep the one that's actually good and maybe aren't quite so terrible these past few years.

But then again, I could just be spitballing. Don't take the above too seriously.

Still On The Board: Alexander Edler (91), Tyler Kennedy (99), arguably Johan Franzen (97)

Verdict: I'm between neutral and bust. He's not an NHL-quality goaltender, but the fact he's hung around the league despite this sets him apart from others like Jeff Glass (picked 89th) and I'm probably biased because of what I said up there. Let's call him a push.

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Roman_kukumberg_medium

Round 4, #113 Overall - Roman KUKUMBERG

0 GP

According to Wikipedia, the most notable thing about Kukumberg is that he is recognised in his native Slovakia as the man who introduced the populace to the concept of balsamic vinegar. He's 31 now, implying he was 24 when he was drafted, and I don't know for sure but my guess is the list of overage players who were drafted and then went on to justify that pick is fairly low. Kukumberg played 54 games in North America, all with the Marlies, and currently plays for Khabarovsk Amur in the KHL. He also has never smiled.

By the way, this is who David Steckel will probably turn into. Chill.

Still On The Board: Ryan Callahan (127), Kris Versteeg (134)

Verdict: Has to be a bust. The expectations were low, and him being fully six years older than most of the players drafted that year can't have helped, but not a single NHL game from the man? Bust.

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Products-00-0022-00229100-dmitri-vorobiev-reflections_medium

Round 5, #157 Overall - Dmitri VOROBIEV

0 GP

I may be wrong, but I think Vorobiev may technically still be in our system somewhere. He's probably, like, twentieth on the defensive depth chart, but he's there somewhere! Although he's another one who never suited up as a Maple Leaf outside of the preseason, he seems to have carved out a respectable career in Russia and has played with the national team - he was part of the squad that took gold in 2008, although he only appeared in five games. In his spare time, I'm reliably informed he enjoys neo-Soviet architecture, the colour red and field-stripping rifles. I am categorically NOT suggesting he is some kind of Communist super-soldier born to wreak vengeance on the United States.

Still On The Board: Mike Brown (159), Mike Santorelli (178), Roman Polak (180)

Verdict: Did he ever play in North America? Yes, but only for international play. Bust, at least as far as the Leafs' concern in him goes.

---

Robbie-earle-001_medium

Round 6, #187 Overall - Robbie EARL

47 GP - 6 + 1 = 7, -4, 6 PIM

Just kinda lame. He was a pretty respectable player in college - being a point-per-game player his last two years at the University of Wisconsin - but since then his career highlights have probably been the six goals he scored for Minnesota in 2009, during a 32-game stint with the Wild. Currently with Dinamo Riga, presumably after figuring it wasn't worth it sticking around in the AHL for another year.

Still On The Board: Um. Anton Khudobin (206)?

Verdict: A limited win, I suppose.

---

Maximsemenov_medium

Round 7, #220 - Maxim SEMENOV

0 GP

Chalk up another one who decided to stay in the Motherland; Semenov is Kazakhstani rather than the Russia, though, which differentiates him from Vorobiev. Otherwise, they might as well have been the same person. Either he was drafted as a stay-at-home defenseman or he's a two-way player and his offensive numbers are just fucking awful, it could be either. He did, however, make the Kazakhstan national team in 2010 - a team which lost all three of it's games, had a goal differential of minus 10 and was relegated following the tournament's conclusion.

Still On The Board: Chris Campoli (227)

Verdict: BUST. Borat might have done better.

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Steber_jpg_medium

Round 8, #252 Overall - Jan STEBER

0 GP

No, I've never heard of him either. A Czech forward, he was fairly unimpressive through his two years with the Halifax Mooseheads, unimpressive with the Pensacola Ice Pilots when they were our ECHL affiliate and unimpressive when he went back to the Czech league in 2006. I'm sure there's a unifying factor here, I just can't think of the right word for it.

Still On The Board: Pekka Rinne (258), Mark Streit (262), Daniel Winnik (265)

Verdict: A bust made more disappointing when you consider we could have had an Enstrom-Schenn-Streit-Phaneuf-Gunnarsson-Franson defensive corps with some smarter picking (and, as before, shut up let me dream goddammit).

---

3_pierce_brosnanlarge_image-1_medium

Round 9, #285 Overall - Pierce NORTON

0 GP

Inexplicably, Wikipedia claims Norton's name is Mike Guthrie and refuses to acknowledge his existence in any other way. This, sadly, might be the most interesting thing about this pick.

Still On The Board: Who cares?

Verdict: Mike Guthrie is a character from a TV show. Bust.

---

Overview

Picks: Seven

Career Players: Zero. Nobody's even going to come close.

Grade: F-. Yes, I'm going out on a limb here because I believe this draft was EVEN WORSE than 2003. We might loathe John fucking Mitchell, but the best player to come from this year's crop of rookies was Robbie Earl, who ranks #1005 in terms of games played among all of the players in the database - and this would be lower if everybody who'd played zero NHL games weren't tied for #1556 - and Justin Pogge, our great white hope, hasn't made anything of himself in Toronto or anywhere else. What a terrible year. Over to you.

Poll
What grade would you give this draft?
E, because I'm crazy and think Pogge has UNTAPPED POTENTIAL
43 votes
F
12 votes
F-
20 votes
F--------
36 votes
I can't believe any of the people responsible for these picks still have jobs
199 votes

310 votes | Poll has closed

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

Comment 48 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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Comments

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Well thank god...

the draft for 2006 is around the corner.

by spoonie on Oct 5, 2011 11:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Great Post!

This series really puts into perspective just how awful the Leaf’s draft classes were in the early 2000s and how pitifully little Burke had to work with when he took over. That being said PLEASE get to some of the more recent drafts – my will to go on can only hold out for so long through so many Justin Pogges/JFMs.

by LeaferinOttawa on Oct 5, 2011 1:35 PM EDT reply actions  

2005 and 06

Should make me feel better

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Oct 5, 2011 3:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Its hard for me to get upset about a draft where we didn’t pick before 90. I’m more upset that we traded all of our picks, than that we didn’t get anything out of picks at 90 and later…

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 5, 2011 6:31 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Draft schmaft. Its all about signing those elite players on July 1st!

by Tickle Me Aulie on Oct 5, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

drafts like these are the reason why i started drinking. heavily.

The only way to live as a leafs fan: with an self-deprecating sense of humour.

by Frattinator on Oct 5, 2011 7:02 PM EDT reply actions  

What do you expect him to do with one late 3rd round pick and a bunch of later ones?

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 5, 2011 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh jesus my eyes

Sometimes it seems this cycle never ends, we slide from top to bottom then we turn and climb again.
Stoik_Leafs Twitter

by Chris Stoikoff on Oct 5, 2011 7:37 PM EDT reply actions  

oh, and rec’d.

come on people, rec this shit.

I had something really clever to say here. But I forgot.

by daoust on Oct 5, 2011 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

also, I remember being really hopeful about Robbie Earl for a while. apparently I know nothing about assessing potential.

I had something really clever to say here. But I forgot.

by daoust on Oct 5, 2011 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do too actually.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 5, 2011 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

i remember him playing with Sundin, and Komi gave him a hit, sundin went after Komi.

or is my memory foggy?

by spoonie on Oct 6, 2011 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

on the subject of Earl

he actually is playing for EC Salzburg which isn’t in the KHL… it’s in Austria, which is worse than most of the leagues in Europe.

He actually had a higher number of PPG in his last year at Wisconsin (1.15) than Drew Stafford did for UND (1.14). He was also playing with Joe Pavelski… that probably helped.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

He produced more

than David Backes in 2005-06… and was a year younger when he turned pro. He’s also younger than Pavelski.

As far as NCAA players went, he really wasn’t a bad prospect at the time… he turned pro the same year as Pavelski but was born 6 months later…

He turned out to be a “bust” in the NHL… just couldn’t convert his speed game into offense in the NHL for some reason.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh and

he and Pavelski were the leading scorers on the NCAA champions in 2005-06… his final season before signing with the Marlies.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think

something went seriously wrong for Earl in the 2008-09 season…

coming off a 47 point in 66 game effort with the Marlies in 2007-08, he produced 2 goals and 10 points in 36 games before being traded for Ryan Hamilton (in Burke’s first trade) to the Wild organization where he ended up in Houston and only had 4 goals and 9 points in 32 games there to close out the year.

A 6 goal 19 point effort, in 68 games, in your 23 year old season? Kinda makes you wonder wtf happened to his development.

The Marlies brought in Bates Battaglia to play LW… Mark Bell played 56 games of LW for the Marlies… Jiri Tlusty spent a lot of time on the wing… Kris Newbury played LW a lot… Darryl Boyce was a LW/C…

ALL Of those guys were either older and more experienced (in the NHL even – Battaglia, Bell, Boyce, Newbury) or more highly rated by the organization (Tlusty).

I think in that situation, he was kind of destined to slide down the depth chart… that was also the year they added Stalberg for the playoffs (fresh off his Frozen Four push with Vermont), Kulemin was demoted and played 5 games, they were stuck with Ryan Hollweg for 28 games on LW..

Talk about a clogged LW. No wonder he lost minutes and all sense of direction in his development.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh and

on the subject of Hamilton, who has been in the Leafs org with the Marlies since Burke added him in exchange for Earl?

I think he’s a half decent hockey player, but he’s only produced 39 goals and 67 points in 128 AHL (0.52 ppg) games since the deal. Earl produced 38 G and 82 points in 142 AHL games (0.58 ppg) with the Aeros, and played 38 NHL games with the Wild, scoring 6 goals (in comparison to Hamilton’s 0 NHL games with the Leafs).

I’m not saying Earl is a great player, but he’s probably better than Ryan Hamilton.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

and if you drop

the remainder of Earl’s screwed up 2008-09 season… he actually output 34 goals and 73 points in 110 AHL games over the past two years (0.66 ppg), in addition to playing those 38 NHL games with 6 goals.

He’s been comparably productive to Christian Hanson (65 pts in 96 AHL games – 0.68 ppg + 37 NHL games and 2 goals, 7 points for the Leafs).

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't recall

anyone saying Hanson was useless as a prospect… but I guess since he walked and never really stuck with the Leafs that’s how we’ll remember him?

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice to see you rounding into regular season form, Steve.

Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік

by clrkaitken on Oct 6, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pogge wasn't the worst goalie ever drafted

and Vorobiev is a solid D man – he just never made the jump to NA – and apparently never had any interest in doing so (which does amount to bad scouting).

Robbie Earl was a great player in college, he just never made it click in the AHL or NHL…

I have to say that picking after 90 generally means you’re unlikely to end up with much (if any) NHL caliber talent.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 8:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Thank you
I have to say that picking after 90 generally means you’re unlikely to end up with much (if any) NHL caliber talent.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 5, 2011 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think

given how low we selected… Pogge, Earl, and Vorobiev are half decent picks… they just didn’t work out for the Leafs.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 5, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 5, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Doesn’t mean it’s not a bad draft.. we didn’t even get lucky on any of those.

by unavoidable on Oct 5, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can’t tell if you’re serious. Even your wording:

we didn’t even get lucky on any of those.

Suggests that to have succeeded we would have had to have gotten lucky. Its not a good draft (obviously we had no success stories), but when you’re going in without a pick in the top 90 your expectations should be extremely low. Getting a guy who is at least decent at hockey but didn’t come over (Vorobiev), an AHL goaltender (Pogge) and a once promising prospect (Earl) is honestly not so terrible when picking 90th, 113th, then 5 picks at 157th (late 6th round) or later…

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 5, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with what he was saying. We put ourselves in a shit position by trading away our high picks, and then we didn’t have any success (luck) at all with the lower picks we had remaining. We drafted exactly ZERO NHL players – either playing for our team or any other team – so I’m not sure how this draft year can be viewed as anything but a failure. The fact that we traded Rask instead of Pogge is just salt on the wound.

I had something really clever to say here. But I forgot.

by daoust on Oct 5, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess when I am expectations are so low with such low picks that it just doesn’t bother me.

From your own data we had the following odds to get an NHL player (play more than 200) games
90th= 15.9%
113=10.4%
157=6.4%
187=10.1
220=9.7
252=7.5
285=7.1

The odds were just so damn low.

If I remember my probabilities right the likelihood on hitting all of those is you take the odds of each individual event not happening and multiply them. Then subtract that product from 1. That gives us 50.8%…. So my expectations are extraordinarily low. If we want to be disappointed its in trading all of those picks away.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 5, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

The odds were low, but they weren’t zero, which is what we achieved. You’re right that it’s more disappointment in the fact that we traded away high picks in the first place, but regardless of how ‘OK’ we think the scouts did in identifying talent, you can’t argue that in terms of impact to the Leafs (or even the NHL), this draft year is about as bad as it gets.

I had something really clever to say here. But I forgot.

by daoust on Oct 5, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough man.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 6, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

We dealt the 2004 2nd rounder for Glen Wesley, I believe. I don’t have much of a problem with the 2002-04 Leafs dealing draft picks to go for it. The team had an older core and was as close as it’s been in my lifetime… Frankly, if they didn’t go for it, I’d believe more in the “MLSE doesn’t want to win” stuff.

by Papa Squid on Oct 5, 2011 11:27 PM EDT reply actions  

You are correct. That pick was then apparently traded by Carolina to Columbus, who picked up Kyle Wharton.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2009/1/12/715877/leafs-trade-history-99-pre

I agree 100% about those Leaf teams going for it – they were definitely in the position where it made sense to do so. Still hurts to see the impact it had on our prospect pool, especially since they didn’t win a Cup after making those moves.

I had something really clever to say here. But I forgot.

by daoust on Oct 5, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

No one remembers conference finals appearances… Sigh…

Also I have no problem with the concept of trading futures for present when you are ready but a couple of the trades I definitely question.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 6, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

For sure, that is an appropriate time to go for gold. But I just can’t get angry at scouts for failing to hit anything with such late picks.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 6, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Who the fuck are those people?

Seriously.

No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise.

by article1 on Oct 6, 2011 12:06 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

That made laugh… rec-ing.

Contains the correct levels of Truculence....

by SydDave on Oct 6, 2011 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

If you're going to evaluate drafts, you need to:

1. Separate drafting from trades. I don’t even think the Leetch trade was a bad deal, but now it causes the 2004 draft to be judged a failure.

2. Include a better look at the chances of success. Getting an impact player after the third round is very unlikely, and what you’re evaluating as poor choices (‘busts’) could often be better considered good gambles that didn’t pay off (e.g. Earl and Vorobiev).

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Oct 6, 2011 10:02 AM EDT reply actions  

what you’re evaluating as poor choices (‘busts’)

No, I’m evaluating players who ended up not contributing anything to the team as busts. There’s a different and I have explained that already.

by Be26 on Oct 7, 2011 5:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

This series

is absolutely amazing. Funny to see how pitiful the Leafs did in the early 2000’s in the draft and interesting to think that those picks played a huge role in the Leafs missing the playoffs for a while. Keep it up.

by silkymitts on Oct 7, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

I think people

need to compare the Leafs drafts to OTHER teams… on the whole, not individual picks.

The Leafs drafting wasn’t particularly worse than a lot of other teams over the same stretch. In fact by many estimates you could argue they were better.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Oct 8, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Steve, when you look in the toilet after taking a shit, do you stop and think ‘hm. that log of shit looks more solid than the other shit logs. THAT MEANS THAT ONE SHIT LOG IS THE BEST! I WILL HAVE IT FRAMED AND LET MY KIDS TAKE IT TO SCHOOL FOR SHOW AND TELL’

The point is that the Leafs’ drafts were shite. Whether they were more or less shite than other teams is genuinelt irrelevant. And if it transpires these drafts were actually GOOD compared to other teams in the same period, then God help us all.

by Be26 on Oct 9, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with Steve on this one

You are looking at drafts where we drafted 60th and later and being upset that all we landed was a couple of meh prospects and depth players. Seems fine to me.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 10, 2011 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Absolutely, but Steve’s point was that this analysis is pointless if I’m not comparing our draft to those of other teams, which is cobblers. This draft was impossibly rubbish, and the fact Anaheim or Nashville did worse out of it doesn’t make our draft any better because we still got next to nothing out of it. That’s my point. We’ve been over what you’re saying already.

by Be26 on Oct 15, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough.

Steve says we should compare to other teams.

You say we should look what we got.

I say we should compare to what should be expected in that round (which you are doing just not as strictly as I would).

But frankly Steve and I have no right to compalin because you are the one writing the article. So kudos to you!

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 15, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Should say articles not singular.

Confused why people think Aulie is better than Gunnarson. Please ask me to explain
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!

by BCapp on Oct 15, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

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