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Charting Games 1-23

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Following up a post I did in the summer, sometimes it's interesting to look at Leafs stats in chart form as it changes throughout the season. One rightful criticism of the last post was that it didn't separate Even strength production (5v5, 4v4 and 3v3(BOZAK!!1)) from Special Teams production. After the jump, we'll see just that - as well as how these figures compare to last seasons' charts.

Star-divide

**A quick note that I used 5-game trailing averages (as compared to 10-game in the previous post) as there simply aren't enough data points for a larger average to be useful.

Even Strength:

Evshots11_12_large

Evgoals11_12_large

Evsh11_12_large

  • Leafs seem to continue a trend that came up in my previous post - they're shooting less than league average but getting higher-than-average shooting %. They seem to be facing ~league average ES shots per game, but are getting sub-average goaltending.
  • League average ES goaltending seems to be about .924 right now. Note that this is approximated by Total League Shots - Total League Powerplay Shots, it is proving difficult to collect all short-handed shot data at a league level, but this is a very small # of total shots.

Special Teams:

Ppshots11_12_large

Ppgoals11_12_large

Ppsh11_12_large

  • I'll immediately point out that these charts can be somewhat deceptive when trying to evaluate Leafs special teams - this is looking at it from a PER-GAME perspective, not a PER-POWERPLAY perspective. The fact that Leafs aren't getting as many shots for or against on a PP may be just as much of a result of early goal conversion or simply not taking/drawing as many powerplays.
  • Really the only truly useful of the bunch is the third chart - PP sh% & SH sv% - which highlights just how dramatically improved the special teams have been in the last 5 or 6 games.

Total Production - 10/11 vs. 11/12 (so far)

  • Included below are 3 distinctive "seasons" the Leafs have had recently - the pre-Reimer 10/11, Post-Reimer 10/11 and the 11/12 Season thus far. Here I reverted to the 10game trailing averages to keep it consistent with the previous post.

Totalshots10_11_12_large

Totalgoals10_11_12_large

Totalsh10_11_12_large

So what's really changed?

  • Leafs are shooting less on average, but since the post-Reimer set of games, they're starting to bring down shots against by a fair margin. Does this mean the Leafs defense is improved? Maybe, but to anyone who has actually watched the games, it's nowhere near where it needs to be to be a Cup contender.
  • Goals for are up, but so are goals against. Needs moar Reimer, but it seems unlikely that Leafs can keep up their dominating offensive output all season. OR CAN THEY??
  • Sh% is up and sv% is down. Again, needs moar Reimer and expect a drop in sh% as the season continues. Unless they can keep up the red-hot powerplay!

I'll leave the analysis to a minimum to allow discussion in the comments. What do you see? Are the Leafs better than post-Reimer 10/11? How long can they keep this up?

All data from NHL.com, Hockey-Reference.

Spreadsheet for above charts here.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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Does that show that the leafs are getting nearly league average ES save%? It looks like its about 0.5% off. ie League average is about 0.9225 and we are getting 0.9175

About time that people finally realized how awesome Gunnar is...
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!
My new goal: To get the nickname Hebrew Hammer for Mike Brown to take off.

by BCapp on Nov 27, 2011 1:37 PM EST reply actions  

Sounds about right, I get .9171

The chart above has league average being .924, but as I said that’s an approximation not including shorthanded shots.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 27, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

BTW

That’s with ES SV%

Reimer: 0.943%
Gustavsson: 0.911%
Scrivens: 0.909%

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 27, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

To further elaborate

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 27, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

So you’re saying we play Reimer at even strength then switch to Scrivens on the PK?

I'm building a beautiful statue, to make sure that no one forgets you

by jimmyp22 on Nov 28, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Not enough sample size to for Reimer… plus the PK was godawful for the first while when Reimer was in net.

Now that the team is gellin’ a bit on the PK more I’d be shocked if it didn’t rise quickly once he gets back.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 28, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

What’s with the turd nugget in the Sens jersey? boo

"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski

by MapleLeafMole on Nov 28, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

his pose is priceless though!

Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Transferred to IR Jail.

by Ubiquitous on Nov 28, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

For everything else, there’s mastercard

"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski

by MapleLeafMole on Nov 28, 2011 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

He just tried Pop Rocks for the first time.

Riding the Leafs bandwagon since 1991.
Check out my art!

by CanadianMaple09 on Nov 28, 2011 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Fiiiizzzzzyyyyyy

"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski

by MapleLeafMole on Nov 29, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I will laugh every time I look at his face!

by gettingcozywithsarkozy on Nov 29, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

The Leafs need to shoot more

elephant shell
never question our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - yardly

by sportsfan2 on Nov 28, 2011 3:19 PM EST reply actions  

Hey, whatever they’re doing it’s working.

But ya, I’d love to see more shots from Kulemin, hell even MacArthur and Connolly.

Even Kessel’s shots are down a bit.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 28, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

It is not always about the amount but the quality. The Leafs seem a lot more patient with the puck and their control on the PP has been noticeably better.

When losing an argument on the internet, be sure to attack someones grammar. That is the only way to save face.

by SPERO on Nov 28, 2011 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

There’s an enormous debate over shot quality, it’s use, consistency and if it’s repeatable.

What’s not much of a debate – More shots = More goals, all else being equal.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 28, 2011 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

But surely anyone who is in the shot quality camp would argue that more shots might mean lower quality shots. It’s far from obvious, but I think there’s a good argument that this could be the case. Not sure that you could ever prove it, stats-wise, as it deals in counterfactuals.

Come get your duds in order...

by The Bag on Nov 28, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

More shots has been consistently proven to result in more goals.

About time that people finally realized how awesome Gunnar is...
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!
My new goal: To get the nickname Hebrew Hammer for Mike Brown to take off.

by BCapp on Nov 28, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve heard this, but never seen the data. Where should I go for this?

Come get your duds in order...

by The Bag on Nov 28, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Easiest way is to pick a year, any year, and plot each teams’ shots on the x axis and goals on the y axis

You’ll notice a linear upward trend, with the teams that score the most goals shooting the most.

This will happen likely without exception.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 28, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions  

If shots vs goals is indeed linear with a slope given by shooting percentage than the linear correlation (Rsquared) will be greater then that of the shot quality camp. That is, the shot quality camp believe that shots follow the law of diminishing returns (that is a logarithmic trend) so the slope will also have an upward trend but the Rsquared correlation should be less significant then the linear case. That should be enough to shut them up. But, if I was arguing the shot quality angle, I would than move my support to some elaborate polynomial (that a linear regression can also be fit to) and is a factor of the game score, playoff status etc.

by jeffgm on Nov 28, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Shot quality doesn’t seem to work on an aggregate linear level like that which is why it’s harder to defend.

But intuitively, you’d think it does matter, no?

It’s kind of like the faceoff argument – on an aggregate level, it seems to have extremely minimal value when plotted against wins, p%, goals, etc. but when you watch the game – how important is it to win shorthanded draws when protecting a 1 goal lead? or o-zone draws when down by a goal? Very important.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 29, 2011 6:01 AM EST up reply actions  

This is all I was trying to say. One could also point out that a linear upward trend between shots and goals does not in itself specify a simple causal relationship.

Come get your duds in order...

by The Bag on Nov 29, 2011 8:11 AM EST up reply actions  

This reminds me of stock market modelling where forecasters originally tried to use number of buyers (volume) to predict price but finally concluded that volume (or buyers) must exist before the price rise but they do not cause the price rise. In hockey terms, shots must occur before goals but do not “cause” goals. So what causes the stock price rise?

What they concluded was that the price itself caused price changes (rising price attracts more buyers). Or in hockey terms goals (or lack of) cause goals. And price and volume (or goals and shots) arise together rather than be causal.

They modeled this using fractal math (because of its self referential properties). And found this better explains why there can be no goals for 10 minutes in game and then two goals in 15 seconds (or game 1 of a playoff series is low scoring and game 2 is high scoring). That is because fractals are better suited for modelling random change. But it turns out fractals are not more accurate than statistic models but better predict the possible ranges so as result statistics works as well in general but occassionally look very bad.

by jeffgm on Nov 29, 2011 10:15 AM EST up reply actions  

If you think about it intuitively, it’s harder to show that more shots doesn’t equal more goals.

If league average shooting % is 9% and you assume each team shoots league average (for example), the team who shoots more is going to score more goals.

Honestly i don’t even question that it could be any different.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 29, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m going to be on edge about the Leafs success until we are consistently outshooting teams even in games we win.

Whatever is going in with Kulemin, I hope he gets it going soon.

elephant shell
never question our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - yardly

by sportsfan2 on Nov 28, 2011 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks Chartman!!

Good as always. All this did though was make me miss Reimer.

When losing an argument on the internet, be sure to attack someones grammar. That is the only way to save face.

by SPERO on Nov 28, 2011 7:49 PM EST reply actions  

Trailing average is nice way to smooth the data – and not sure everyone will get it but great idea. Also from the perspective of stats folks debating which measure is best – would be interesting to see fenwick road to compare to shots for/against.

by jeffgm on Nov 28, 2011 8:29 PM EST reply actions  

I’ve always wondered if the relationship between Corsi and Shots For/Against was strong enough that we could just use Shots as a proxy for possession. I’m guessing the Corsi relationship is even stronger, or else it never would have been created to begin with

elephant shell
never question our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - yardly

by sportsfan2 on Nov 28, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I generally stick to simple stats as its easier to obtain/manage data for.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 28, 2011 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Well

too often stats miss out where shots come from, rebound goals, did D men clear the area in front of the net, did they keep skaters outside, how was the D structured against the rush, did shot blockers block the goalie’s view, and so on. Stats alone are, well, meaningless. Being a mathematician, I guess I should know that.

by dsciswe on Nov 28, 2011 9:16 PM EST reply actions  

Stats aren't meaningless. They're just numbers. It's how you interpret them that gives them meaning.

And, if you are indeed a mathematiciain, you know that no model is perfect, but some are useful.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 28, 2011 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

love the quote on “all models are wrong, but some are useful.” G.E.P. Box. Got it out of some stats textbook years ago.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. Experiencing cheering whiplash for decades..

by Wan Ihite on Nov 28, 2011 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Resident Internet Tough Guy

by JaredFromLondon on Nov 28, 2011 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Don’t ever change.

About time that people finally realized how awesome Gunnar is...
Certified Gunnar & Kule lover!
My new goal: To get the nickname Hebrew Hammer for Mike Brown to take off.

by BCapp on Nov 28, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The good news is it looks like the Leafs post-Reimer goaltending is better than their pre-Reimer goaltending. So it seems like our backups have improved. Gus?!?!??? If that IS the case then we can lean on the backups a fair bit more so that we don’t wear poor Reimer into the ground like we did last season.

And if we combine the ReimTime magic with the Leafs new found aptitude on offense???

Oh that the world were so consistent and linear, but a fella can hope, right ;)

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. Experiencing cheering whiplash for decades..

by Wan Ihite on Nov 28, 2011 9:46 PM EST reply actions  

Relevent
@mirtle
James Mirtle
Leafs continue to lead the league in shooting percentage at 11.4%: bit.ly/u5joXJ

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 28, 2011 10:19 PM EST reply actions  

Better win the Cup this year. That stat won’t be repeatable ;-P

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Nov 28, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmm okay

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 28, 2011 10:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Burtch on twitter last night. Shooting percentages above 9.5% by teams are generally not sustainable beyond a season-with few exceptions.

"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Nov 29, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

As I said, im very okay with just winning the Cup this year.

No more moral victories, no more excuses. Put up or shut up.
Lebda-free since July 3.

by nhlcheapshot on Nov 29, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

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