FanPost

A Look at the NHL - 1/6 Review in Win Threshold


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If any of you remember, I did a series of fanposts around the Toronto Maple Leafs last year, all revolving around Win Threshold, in an attempt to project how the Leafs would fair in the 2011/2012 season.


Now this method isn't foolproof, but historically it's shown who are the good teams and who are the bad teams. For those who don't remember, Win Threshold caculates the likelihood of a team reaching the .550Pts% mark or essentially the mark needed to make the playoffs. For a review in Win Threshold, view my post which explains it all.

Follow the Jump for a look at how the Leafs, and the rest of the NHL are doing so far:.

Win Threshold is calculated by taking the total shots against a team has, subtracting their goals for, and then dividing again by shots against. So: [(Shots against)-(Goals For)]/(Shots against)

This number will be a percentage, more specifically, the save percentage your team requires in order to win .550% of games. This is thus a good indication of which teams will make the playoffs and which won't. The unknown factor involved, however, are the goaltenders, which can bring a team with a high win threshold into the playoffs, as long as they exceed it.

Here's what we have in the NHL so far:

Rank Team  GP  P%  G/G  GA/G  S/G  SA/G  Win Threshold Win Threshold Rank Team S% Δ Δ Rank
2 WASHINGTON 12 0.75 3.92 2.75 31.3 30.5 0.8715 2 0.9098 0.03836 1
9 PHILADELPHIA 14 0.643 4 3.07 31.6 28.1 0.8577 1 0.8907 0.03310 2
4 EDMONTON 13 0.692 2.23 1.54 26 29 0.9231 25 0.9469 0.02379 3
3 PITTSBURGH 15 0.7 2.8 2.13 32.1 28.5 0.9018 7 0.9253 0.02351 4
11 BUFFALO 13 0.615 2.69 2.15 30.9 30.9 0.9129 17 0.9304 0.01748 5
7 NY RANGERS 13 0.654 2.62 2.08 25.1 31 0.9155 18 0.9329 0.01742 6
1 DALLAS 13 0.769 2.92 2.38 26.8 33.2 0.9120 15 0.9283 0.01627 7
29 BOSTON 12 0.417 2.75 2.33 32.9 29 0.9052 9 0.9197 0.01448 8
12 PHOENIX 13 0.615 2.92 2.62 32.1 32.1 0.9090 13 0.9184 0.00935 9
6 CHICAGO 14 0.679 3.14 2.86 34 30.5 0.8970 3 0.9062 0.00918 10
8 MINNESOTA 13 0.654 2.15 1.92 26.6 29.6 0.9274 28 0.9351 0.00777 11
10 SAN JOSE 12 0.625 2.92 2.75 35.8 28.6 0.8979 5 0.9038 0.00594 12
15 LOS ANGELES 13 0.577 2.15 2 27.8 28.5 0.9246 27 0.9298 0.00526 13
13 NASHVILLE 13 0.615 2.69 2.54 25 33.3 0.9192 20 0.9237 0.00450 14
20 VANCOUVER 15 0.5 3 2.87 32.7 29.5 0.8983 6 0.9027 0.00441 15
18 DETROIT 12 0.542 2.42 2.42 36.4 26 0.9069 12 0.9069 0.00000 16
14 FLORIDA 13 0.577 2.54 2.54 32.8 33 0.9230 24 0.9230 0.00000 17
16 TAMPA BAY 14 0.571 3.07 3.14 30.6 32.8 0.9064 11 0.9043 -0.00213 18
26 MONTREAL 13 0.462 2.62 2.69 31.9 27.4 0.9044 8 0.9018 -0.00255 19
5 TORONTO 14 0.679 3.14 3.29 26.2 30.6 0.8974 4 0.8925 -0.00490 20
22 CALGARY 13 0.5 2.31 2.46 26.3 30.2 0.9235 26 0.9185 -0.00497 21
25 ST LOUIS 13 0.462 2.46 2.69 30.8 26.2 0.9061 10 0.8973 -0.00878 22
19 COLORADO 14 0.536 2.64 3 32.3 30.2 0.9126 16 0.9007 -0.01192 23
27 NY ISLANDERS 11 0.455 2.09 2.54 28.4 29.5 0.9292 29 0.9139 -0.01525 24
17 NEW JERSEY 12 0.542 2.25 2.75 28.8 29 0.9224 23 0.9052 -0.01724 25
28 WINNIPEG 14 0.429 2.43 3.14 27.6 29.8 0.9185 19 0.8946 -0.02383 26
24 CAROLINA 14 0.464 2.5 3.29 29.6 32 0.9219 22 0.8972 -0.02469 27
21 OTTAWA 15 0.5 2.8 3.6 30.7 31 0.9097 14 0.8839 -0.02581 28
23 ANAHEIM 14 0.464 1.86 2.71 24.8 30.2 0.9384 30 0.9103 -0.02815 29
30 COLUMBUS 14 0.179 2.21 3.71 30.9 27.9 0.9208 21 0.8670 -0.05376 30

The table above is explained as follows: The Rank Column refers to the team's current rank in the NHL based on Points % (rather than wins or points). Dallas is currently in 1st, the Leafs are in 5th. The rest of the stats are pretty straight forward, until Win Threshold. Win Threshold is calculated as explained above. The Team S% is the Team's Save Percentage, put out by all shots on goal and all goals against so far this season. The delta (Triangle) refers to the change between the win Threshold and Team Save Percentage.

In the case of this table, the larger the Delta number, the better the team will perform. These numbers are indicators of how each team has performed relative to their win threshold. The Win Threshold rank suggests how the team has been performing. The Delta rank indicates how the team including their goalies have been performing. It does not necessarilly mean the goalies have been stellar, but if the goalies were required to save 87.1% of the shots like in Washington's case, but have actually saved 91% of the shots, they will have a delta spread of 3.9%, which is large. On the other hand, a team like Anaheim has been requiring a 93.8S%, but has only managed to stop 91% of the shots, leading them to the 29th best (2nd worst) delta.

So according to the table, the leafs have been playing with the 4th best Win Threshold in the league, but only have a S% of 0.892 (only better than Ottawa and Columbus). Thus their Delta has fallen to the 20th best in the league. Since it is negative, we can expect less than .550 hockey as long as we continue to play with this goaltending. If, however, we continue our team play, and receive even .900 goaltending, we will play at .550 hockey.

Hope the graph is revealing, ask any questions in the comments.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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