I just read Draglikepull's fan post analyzing our top 6 forwards goal production. This lead me to think about our potential lines and their potential goal scoring. It'll be a pretty short read but if this interests you please read on:
Before I begin I am using the following players:
- I am assuming Kaberle is gone. I hope he stays but I figure it would be more conservative to assume he is gone
- I am only using players that the Leafs currently have in the NHL/AHL
- Lebda will be included even though I hate him
So the first line would be the Grabovski line:
Kulemin (LW) - Grabovski (C) - Kessel (RW)
25 goals - 25 Goals -35 Goals Total = 85 Goals
I believe this is realistic production. Grabovski and Kulemin are both on pace for over 30 goals this year and I think mid 20s are realistic in the future. Kessel has had 2 seasons with 30+ goals in only 70 games. I believe 35 goals is a realistic amount.
MacArthur (LW) - Bozak (C) - Lupul (RW)
20-25 Goals- 15 Goals - 20-25 Goals Total = 60 Goals
MacArthur is on pace for 25 goals so I predicted that as his max. He has had two seasons of high teens and has seemed to find his game in TO, so I believe a minimum of 20 goals is realistic. Lupul has a career average of 22 G seasons and his average pace over the last 4 seasons has been closer to 24. If he can stay healthy 20-25 seems right down his alley. Bozak's first year had an 18 goal pace and this year has an 11 goal pace after a sophomore slump. I believe 15 goals (the middle) is reasonable.
Versteeg (LW) - Brent (C) - Amrstrong (RW)
22 Goals - 10 Goals - 15 Goals Total = 37 Goals
Versteeg has consistently scored low 20 goals per year. Brent is on a 10 goal pace in his first year and I think this to be a reasonable pace. Armstrong's career average is ~17 goals per game, so I believe 15 is reasonable.
Mueller (LW) - Hanson (C) - Brown (RW)
8 Goals- 8 Goals- 6 Goals Total = 22 Goals
Mueller has played well in the AHL after his first month and I believe he may get the call up. Mid single digits seems reasonable for all 3.
Total forwards =204 Goals
Aulie - Phaneuf
2 Goals - 8 Goals Total = 10 Goals
I don't expect much of an offensive game from Aulie but he always seems to score a couple (3 this year in 36 games in the AHL). Obviously Phaneuf's 3 goal pace is TERRIBLE. But I believe 8 goals to be reasonable based on his previous achievements.
5 Goals-4 Goals Total=9 Goals
Gunnarson has scored 3 goals in ~40 games the last two years so 5 over a full season seems reasonable. Schenn is 21 and as he progresses I expect his offensive game to stabilize some. He had 5 last year, but is only on pace for 2 this year. I therefore chose a number in between.
2 Goals-2 Goals Total= 2 Goals
First off UGH I hate this line. I really hope we see Finger/Lashoff/Holzer/UFA on this line. Anyway Lebda has put up 6 goals, 3 twice, and 5 once in the past. 2 should be reasonable. 2 goals is also a typical amount for Komisarek.
Total D=21 Goals
Total Goals = 225
In 2009/2010 that would rank us 15th-18th, in 2008/2009 it would rank us 22nd, and in 2007/2008 it would rank us 17th. So it is relatively middle of the pack. The importance (as this year) would of course be our goals against. If we could get 2.75 GAA goaltending (which would be a huge improvement) we would let in 226 goals. That would put us even and probably about 20th place in the league.