25th-30th Picks From the 1997-2004 NHL Entry Drafts
Editor's Note: BCapp takes a look at what the Leafs can expect to get with the first round pick from Philadelphia.
As everyone around these parts know the Leafs just traded Kris Versteeg for the Flyer's 2011 1st and 3rd round picks. According to NHLSCAP.com:
- First the Clubs which failed to qualify for the next preceding playoffs in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest points total and followed by the Club having the next lowest points total, and so forth.
- The Clubs which participated in the next preceding playoffs (but had not been ranked first in their respective Divisions and did not make the Conference Finals) in order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the next preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
- The Clubs which had been ranked first in their Divisions during the next preceding season (but had not made the Conference Finals ) in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the next preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
- The Clubs who lose in the Conference Finals in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the next preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points.
- The Club which loses in the Finals shall select next to last.
- The Stanley Cup winner shall select last, thus, positioning all Clubs on the list.
Philadelphia is currently winning their division with 77 points in 55 GP and Pittsburgh is in second with 74 points in 58 GP. With both of Pittsburgh's top players injured (one for the season), I don't think they can catch them. That means at WORST Philadelphia will be drafting 21st. Realistically I think they will be one of the top 2 division leaders which means they will draft at 25th at the worst. Based on this I looked at all of the players drafted 25th-30th from 1997-2004.
Results after the jump
I chose 1997 because before that I didn't know enough of the players. I chose 2004 because (1) thats when Versteeg was drafted and (2) their was a player drafted this year who is still a prospect (so after this year I think they may still have needed development time).
Now before I continue you should know this is completely subjective. Just who I think is better (or more valuable to their teams) or as good (as valuable to their teams) as Versteeg. I did try to be overly conservative (ie I said Cheechoo was better even though his career tanked by his late 20s and Brian Boyle with one good year is as good).
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25TH-30TH Pick in NHL Entry Drafts from 1997-2004 |
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|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
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|
25 |
Brenden Morrow |
Left Wing |
25 |
Jiri Fischer |
Defence |
25 |
Mikhail Kuleshov (Left Wing) |
||
|
26 |
Kevin Grimes |
Defence |
26 |
Defence |
26 |
Martin Havlat (Centre) |
|||
|
27 |
Ben Clymer |
Winger |
27 |
Scott Gomez |
Centre |
27 |
Ari Ahonen (Goaltender) |
||
|
28 |
Brad DeFauw |
Left Wing |
28 |
Ramzi Abid |
Left Wing |
28 |
Kristian Kudroc (Defence) |
||
|
29 |
Scott Barney |
Winger |
29 |
Jonathan Cheechoo |
Right Wing |
29 |
Michal Sivek (Centre) |
||
|
30 |
Jean-Marc Pelletier |
Goaltender |
30 |
Kyle Rossiter |
Defence |
30 |
Luke Sellars (Defence) |
||
|
Players who are better |
1 |
2 |
1 |
||||||
|
Players who are as good |
0 |
1 |
0 |
||||||
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|||||||
|
25 |
Steve Ott (Centre) |
25 |
Alexander Perezhogin (Right Wing) |
25 |
Cam Ward (goaltender) |
||||
|
26 |
Brian Sutherby (Centre) |
26 |
Jason Bacashihua (Goaltender) |
26 |
Martin Vagner (defence) |
||||
|
27 |
Martin Samuelsson (Defence) |
27 |
Jeff Woywitka (Defence) |
27 |
Mike Morris (forward) |
||||
|
28 |
Justin Williams (Right Wing) |
28 |
Adrian Foster (Centre) |
28 |
Jonas Johansson (forward) |
||||
|
29 |
Niklas Kronwall (Defence) |
29 |
Adam Munro (Goaltender) |
29 |
Hannu Toivonen (goaltender) |
||||
|
30 |
Jeff Taffe (Centre) |
30 |
Dave Steckel (Centre) |
30 |
Jim Slater (forward) |
||||
|
Players who are better |
1 |
0 |
1 |
||||||
|
Players who are as good |
1 |
0 |
0 |
||||||
|
2003 |
2004 |
||||||||
|
25 |
Anthony Stewart (Right Wing) |
25 |
Rob Schremp (Center) |
||||||
|
26 |
Brian Boyle (Centre) |
26 |
Cory Schneider (Goaltender) |
||||||
|
27 |
Jeff Tambellini (Left Wing) |
27 |
Jeff Schultz (Defense) |
||||||
|
28 |
Corey Perry (Right Wing) |
28 |
Mark Fistric (Defense) |
||||||
|
29 |
Patrick Eaves (Right Wing) |
29 |
Mike Green (Defense) * |
||||||
|
30 |
Shawn Belle (Defence) |
30 |
Andy Rogers (Defense) |
||||||
|
Players who are better |
1 |
2 |
|||||||
|
Players who are as good |
1 |
1 |
|||||||
|
Bolded players are considered (by me) to be better (or more valuable to their team) than Kris Versteeg |
|||||||||
|
Italicized players are considered to be as good (or as valuable to their team) as Kris Versteeg) |
|||||||||
|
Players Who Are Better |
Players Who Are as Good |
|||||
|
Year |
Player |
Pick # |
Year |
Player |
Pick # |
|
|
1997 |
25 |
1998 |
27 |
|
||
|
1998 |
Jiri Fischer |
25 |
2000 |
28 |
|
|
|
1998 |
29 |
2003 |
Brian Boyle |
26 |
|
|
|
1999 |
26 |
2004 |
27 |
|
||
|
2000 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003 |
28 |
|
|
|||
|
2004 |
26 |
|
|
|||
|
2004 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9/48 (18.75%) |
|
4/48 (8.33%) |
|
|
||
So there is a 35/48 (72.92%) chance the player we get is worse then Versteeg (according to historical drafting). Sigh.
Cheers
PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.
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I am drinking the Kule-aid!
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i didnt RTFA
but i already don’t like where this line of thinking is headed.
I’m pleased with the acquisition of new draft picks, including any 1st rounder. I just wish we hadn’t given up Versteeg to acquire it.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
I like our scouts
And first round picks generally are the only way to acquire first line talent. But denying reality that picking a prospect when he is 18 does not have THAT good a chance of panning out is deceiving yourself.
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I’m REALLY starting to feel I am in a highly abusive relationship with this club these days… oh wait, breaking trade… never mind its Aaron Voros…
Another tough guy from the Marlies
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Feb 15, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
aaron voros?
wtf.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Feb 15, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
a couple years ago
he was a decent potential Free Agent signing, now he’s dropped off the map since he left Minnesota or the Rangers.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Feb 15, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Dropped way off the map.
Wasn’t he a decent PK’er at some point?
BS
by MapleLeafMole on Feb 15, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Burke can trade that third rounder for a rudder because this ship seems to have no direction at all these days.
just because you don’t know where it’s going doesn’t mean there is no direction
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Feb 15, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
The fact I don’t know where it is going is fine. The problem is that any other GM that would do an about face like this would be on his way out.
what logic is this? You think it’s a bad thing when someone realizes their plan isnt working and then modifies it in so it can work?
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Feb 15, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
For interests sake
Order of players from the list of “better” I would want:
Corey Perry
Mike Green
Cam Ward
Nicklas Kronwall
Brenden Morrow
Corey Schneider
Martin Havlat
Jiri Fischer
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Cam Ward is hard for me to like. He is too inconsistent year to year for me. He wins the Conn Smythe (and the cup) in 05/06 playing 0.920 hockey in the playoffs. He then puts up 0.897 and 0.904 in 60 games and 69 games the following two seasons. Mind you he seems to have become more consistent the last couple years… Maybe it was just youth
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Perhaps more surprisingly...
Kronwall over Brendan Morrow?
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 15, 2011 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not really sure about that one. It was hard. Morrow seems to have put up some weird years. But I guess I didn’t take into account how elite he is defensively (for the record I have been wishing the LEafs would trade for him).
That being said don’t discount Kronwall. He is a decent OFD, who hits like a fucking maniac.
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You`re right its completely subjective. I’m just a sucker for good 2-way forwards.
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 15, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
OK..
while I agree that Versteeg for a late first rounder and a third rounder is not a deal to be excited about, I have to say that the verdict on the deal isn’t out yet. By dealing Versteeg we are able to clear cap space which can be used to sign a good player in the offseason. Burke also mentioned that the acquired 3rd rounder is in play and he is looking for a player who can play or is close to playing.
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 15, 2011 12:01 PM EST reply actions
The list of forwards that are potential UFAs who are better than Versteeg are:
B Richards
M Hejduk
Potentially
T Fleischmann
J Jokinen
They are all older and will cost WAY more than Versteeg.
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how about 2 or 3 years from now, i think thats where we need to set our sights
There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"
by Matt_Roberts on Feb 15, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Great article btw..
All the Corey Perry comments were annoying the hell out of me. For every Corey Perry drafted late theres probably 50+ players who never made it to the big league
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 15, 2011 12:03 PM EST reply actions
Thank you
Its not quote 50+
Assuming that Perry, Green, and Ward are relatively equal in value thats 3/48 or 1/16. So for every one of them there is 15 below.
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All I’m saying is that the 2003 draft class is more the exception than the rule
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 15, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree on a few of these
Cheechoo might have hit 50 goals, but he’s no longer in the NHL… not sure I’d call him “better”.
Fischer is a defensive D man… far from rare, far from great… he’s never been that important to Detroit. Not sure he meets my “better” standard.
Schneider MIGHT be better… but he hasn’t even played a full season in the NHL yet… a bit premature.
So I think we’re really talking a 6 out of 48, or 1 in 8 chance… that’s really not that good. It MIGHT happen, and it’s better odds than lotto 649, but it’s still not anything CLOSE to a guarantee.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
I might
move Gomez onto the better list (it’s not his fault his contract is ridiculous), Williams would be on the better list, and Schultz will probably be eventually. Boyle might get there eventually also.
Overall I guess that makes my list 10 rather than 6… but still not great odds.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Feb 15, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Gomez regressed so young. Williams is too injury prone, and I think Schultz’ current value is ~= to Versteeg’s. Boyle if anything has LESS value as of now.
Remember Boyle was drafted a year before Steeg and Schultz the same year. So its reasonable to assume they all will develop more (its why I didn’t go past 2004).
Cheers.
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I tried to be conservative and include anyone who could be considered better.
Cheechoo obviously was great and I thought I had heard he blew out his knees. You can’t really predict “blowing out your knees” at drafting. ie Versteeg can blow out his knees. Though of course the blowing out his knees is a hazy memory and could be way off. If it is drop him off the list.
Schneider was the reason I included this disclaimer:
Just who I think is better (or more valuable to their teams) or as good (as valuable to their teams) as Versteeg
It could be argued that he has more value. Regardless he at least (IMHO) has AS much value.
Fischer, to be honest I don’t remember that much about. But I thought he was supposed to be pretty good. In your opinion would he have made the as good list?
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Not really....
Late first round = BBB rated bonds
4th round and beyond = penny stocks
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 15, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
Now we’re using analogies I can get behind.
20 miles to Legoland!
by nhlcheapshot on Feb 16, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
Look on the bright side: there’s a 100% chance of us acquiring someone who’s better than Lebda.
Twitter: I swear I only got it for the hockey updates...
Newly-converted Certified Grabbo lover
Not keeping
We won’t be keeping the pick, Burke has already said he wants to deal the pick right away for a body. I think he already has a deal in the works, he’s not speculating.
What he said
Was that he already has a deal in the works for the third. This article is about the first. What he said on the first was that he plans to keep it, but would trade it for the right deal.
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Question
Why are we looking at players taken 25-30? Wouldn’t it be more accurate to look at all players taken after 25th overall? The Leafs are going to have the option to take anybody left on the board, so why not look at everybody who was left on the board?
...rely a bit to heavily on alcohol and irony...
by My Poor Friend Me on Feb 15, 2011 5:22 PM EST reply actions
The odds of getting a quality player if we include everyone drafted 25th overall and onwards would be a lot lower. I know you’re gonna say Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Nabokov and Kaberle here but believe me they are more the exception than the rule.
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 15, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yes of course Zetterberg et al are the exception, but there are good players picked in the second round every year. Sure Shawn Belle hasn’t panned out, but at that position in the draft, Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, & Shea Weber were still on the board. The way this is constructed suggests that they didn’t exist. (Yes, 2003 was an exceptional year)
...rely a bit to heavily on alcohol and irony...
by My Poor Friend Me on Feb 15, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
A what Leafswinthecup said. To expand on that, scouts/gms aren’t stupid. They are more likely to hit pay dirt the higher the pick is.
B I don’t have the time…
If you want to see a good analysis on that check out Cullen’s article from ’08 http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960
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I totally get the time thing, and didn’t mean to come of as dickish about the work you’ve done. I’ve read the Cullen piece and yes I totally get that the higher the pick is the more likely the player is to pan out. And I’m not saying that we should expect a Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Miller/Kaberle/Lundqvist type homerun, more that good players get taken in the early second round regularly.
...rely a bit to heavily on alcohol and irony...
by My Poor Friend Me on Feb 15, 2011 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Didn’t come off as dickish at all. I was just explaining lol. The point of this post was to look at the likelihood of getting a good pick so expanding the sample size to include picks which have a lower likelihood of success would skew the results
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I think the Leafs have done a pretty good job scouting, so I am more inclined to look at what was still on the table rather than what was selected in that narrow window. I guess what I keep coming back to is that Shawn Belle could have easily been Shea Weber or that Mike Morris could have been Duncan Keith or Adrian Foster could have been Derek Roy, etc, etc, and this would have dramatically skewed your numbers upwards. I am not talking about the Kaberle type late round homeruns, but guys who were drafted in the first half of the second round.
As I said, I think (well mostly hope) that the Leafs scouting department will take the good second rounders over the bad firsts.
...rely a bit to heavily on alcohol and irony...
by My Poor Friend Me on Feb 15, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
As I said, I think (well mostly hope) that the Leafs scouting department will take the good second rounders over the bad firsts.
Prospects aren’t compartmentalized into 1st and 2nd rounders. Think of it more as a ranking and usually the highest ranked skater/dman/goalie is taken depending on the team’s needs.
As for including the early second rounders, I do agree in a sense (1st 3 picks of the 2nd round couldve easily been late 1st rounders) but including the whole second round or everyone picked after the 25th would not only be very tedious but would give a success rate that is lower than it actually is
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 16, 2011 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
No idea where you'd get the data,
but someone really needs to make a graph like this one (note, real numbers would probably have much lower percentages than this, particularly past the top 5)

You couildn’t make that draft. Wouldn’t have enough of a sample size. What I would suggest is you break it up into chunks. 1-10 11-20 21-30, etc. Then you do it over a 10 year period or so, using only forwards.
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You would need the data already organized for you
Or it would take forever…
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Burtch'd
By the data I mean having the players organized by draft position with their box scores next to them.
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SUCCESS
Here you go http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/index.html
Take the data out of there. Copy and paste it into excel. I would suggest trying to have the data focus on players who have played from 2005-now to try to avoid the dead puck era. ie pick players that were drafted from 02-05.
Delete every non forward. Then set up a column iwth the calculation (= Goals/GP*82). Set up an If statement in the next column that tests if the number is greater to or equal to 20. Set a count for how many are greater or equal to 20 in each chunk. Add the years together.
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Draft Analysis
This isnt exactly what you are looking for, but it is a start. I did a basic statistical Analysis of draft pedigree as it relates to on ice success. Have a read if you have the time.
http://oilerspill.blogspot.com/2011/01/value-of-draft-pt-1.html

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