Maple Leafs 5 v. Thrashers 4: Perfectly Blended
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Despite falling behind 2-0 early in the game the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied back to clip the Atlanta Thrashers 5-4. Jean-Sebastien Giguere didn't end up on the right side of .900 but he made some big saves (yes, I know, all saves are big) in the first period that kept the game close as the Leafs' racked up six minor penalties in the first period. The theme of the night was experimentation as Ron Wilson finally hit the blender on all four forward lines. Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin were their usual selves with a goal and an assist each. With about 11 minutes on their wing Phil Kessel notched a +2. Progress!
In honour of Phil Kessel's eleventh straight game without a goal there are eleven game notes after the jump.
- Dion Phaneuf notched his first goal at the Air Canada Centre as a Maple Leaf. It came a scant 372 days after being acquired by Brian Burke. As puckurgently noted, if this is the beginning of Phaneuf's 0.9% shooting percentage regressing to the mean the end of the season could get interesting.
- Usually the Maple Leafs are killed by hot goalies but they seem to have figured out Ondrej Pavelec. Kent Wilson got pilloried for suggesting that he wouldn't be able to keep up his pace over an entire season but he sure seems to be slowing down. His save percentage has gone from .951 to .922 to .908 over the past three months and February stands at .882.
- Luke Schenn played almost 28 minutes including over 6 minutes on the penalty kill. He was + 2, blocked 2 shots, had 3 hits and continues to look comfortable with the puck. Looks like his pairing with Tomas Kaberle is paying off.
- Speaking of Tomas Kaberle, he had two assists including a beautiful dish to Clarke MacArthur. He is now seventh among defenceman in assists and twelfth in points.
- Mike Komisarek played a massive eight minutes tonight and managed to pick up two penalties. I'm going to go ahead and blame his terrible contract for keeping Tomas Kaberle from re-signing in Toronto.
- Johnny Oduya and Dustin Byfuglien were given the assignment of matching up with the Kulemin-Grabovski-Kessel line. Their failure included an amazing pass by Byfuglien to Kulemin on the Leafs' 4th goal.
- I want to know what Colby Armstrong says to the Atlanta Thrashers. They hate him and are willing to take penalties and make dirty plays to get at him.
- The Sportsnet panel (I know, I know) talked about how Nik Antropov could be on the move as Rick Dudley, sounding a lot like Burke, looks to keep Atlanta's year from going down the drain. They are now in ninth with more games played than every team around them. They are 2-5-3 in their last 10. That ship is sinking fast.
- Speaking of Antropov, he potted his 10th on the year and is 3-5-8 in his last ten games. One destination suggested by the Sportsnet panel was Washington. I think that would work pretty well.
- The Leafs are 3-1-0 since the all-star break. They went 5-1-0 after the New Year. They started the season 4-0-0. That's 12-2-0 after long breaks. The Leafs should petition for more of them next year.
- This game was only two WaffleMen:
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As puckurgently noted, if this is the beginning of Phaneuf’s 0.9% shooting percentage regressing to the mean the end of the season could get interesting.
I was being at least mostly sarcastic. I can’t imagine how 0.9% from a guy who’s around 5.8% career is sustainable, but I have about as hard a time believing that corrects itself in the amount of season we have left.
SOME progress would be nice though.
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Would it be valid to say that...
His 5.8 career shooting percentage is not a good estimator of his future performance. If 5.8% was his “true shooting percentage” wouldn’t it be highly unlikely under any distribution that he would be shooting 0.9%. Also, theres the issue of the change in teams so it is possible that his shooting percentage could go down (i.e. less traffic in front of the net or different style of hockey could be considered structural change?). I don’t know if I’m making a good argument here but if anyone could shed some light on this it would be greatly appreciated.
by Leafswinthecup on Feb 8, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
Phaneuf’s got almost 1350 shots on goal in his career for that percentage, that’s not a huge sample but it would still be pretty surprising if that was basically a ruse. Let’s not forget that Dion has missed significant time as well, so if it seems like he doesn’t have a lot of time to make up the difference there’s a reason for that.
As for the difference in play style, that’s been gnawing at me. Phaneuf’s not the only defender that’s having some real struggles scoring, Beauchemin and Kaberle have posted some pretty poor percentages under Wilson as well. I have to imagine that some factors involved with personnel and coaching on the power play are having an effect.
His shooting numbers are best at the beginning of his career, which makes me feel like teams got better at containing him once they learned his tendencies, and we should probably get used to that, so 5.8% is probably inflated by some unrepeatable performances.
But 0.9% is rigoddamndiculous. I have to think we’ll end up looking at this season as an anomally.
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Interestingly enough, he was shooting over 7% when we got him from Calgary, but since he arrive here, he’s shooting under 2%. Now I know it’s a small sample size, given that he hasn’t even played a full season’s worth of games for us yet, but I don’t think I’d be alone in saying that 2% is startling.
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This kind of thing is commonly talked about in baseball with regards to batting average. Basically how it goes is that a guy who’s a career .300 hitter who has hit .250 through half a season won’t hit .350 the rest of the way to average out to that nice .300. Most likely he’ll hit .300 the rest of the way and end up around .275 for the season.
So using that line of thought; if Phaneuf is healthy, continues to shoot at his current 3 SOG/G pace and is able to shoot at his career SH% of 5.8, then he’ll score another 5 goals the rest of the way. Which would be a career low of 7, but at least if he starts shooting near 6% again, we can have hope for next year.
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Now...
If the Leafs can get smart and tag a couple of strong draft picks, the future will look a lot brighter all of sudden.
I couldn’t agree more. Loved Kaberle last night. I was hit pretty hard on Phaneuf the other day, and while my view of him remains largely unchanged, him chipping in with a goal certainly softens me up.
Don’t even get me started on Timmy Brent. If he’s resigned then my still virgin sweater may have to have his name on it.
by Kessel'sOversizedSuit on Feb 8, 2011 8:58 AM EST up reply actions
Brent's GWG
was it his first?
Shameless optimism
Good for him
Who’da thought he’d be a difference maker in the NHL
Shameless optimism
I hope that we can still add depth to push him down the depth chart. But I’m down for him as our 4th line centre next year.
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Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Oh my yes.
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Feb 8, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Mike Komisarek played a massive eight minutes tonight and managed to pick up two penalties. I’m going to go ahead and blame his terrible contract for keeping Tomas Kaberle from re-signing in Toronto.
I’m going to go ahead and agree with you
BS
If Komisarek ...
ends up costing the Leafs Kaberle, I will lose my shit.
Send his ass to the minors. Now.
I agree
I think Komo either gots bought out, or sent to the minors next year. You can’t have a guy earning that much money and play 8 mins a night.
and that was Kaberle’s best game of the season.. and not surprisingly it was a wide open free flowing offence style game.
There were 2 plays in the 3rd period, one-on-one rushes by the Thrashers against Kaberle, and he played them perfectly. Kept his head up, kept the guys on the outside, and didn’t let his guy get a shot off on either opportunity. He can play some D, too.
But that pass to MacArthur, my word.
Kaberle remembered this year that he’s a defenseman. I’d re-sign him.
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Beauchemin is horrible, agreed
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Feb 8, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
No but...
Komisarek and Lebda sure are.
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by PPP on Feb 8, 2011 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
60 percent of the time he sucks every time?
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Feb 8, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

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